Minor league thread 2021

Apisith

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Groome had 9k again yesterday, 1h/2bb over 5 1/3. Would be a huge boost to the system if he were able to keep this going and finish the season strong in AA.
He now has an ERA of 3.60 in his last 45 innings, ignoring the first three starts which I'll discount because he hadn't pitched in a while. His pitch count has gradually increased from an average of ~55 to an average of ~85 per game. His fastball velocity is back up to 92-94mph and has touched 97mph. Sure looks like he's back to his level, hope he progresses quickly. ETA end of next season possible?
 

edoug

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So strange how his delivery is different. Sometimes he lands with his left foot over his right, sometimes it’s behind it. That can’t be what’s taught right?
They do like pitchers to be consistent with their deliveries, so probably not.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Seabold in FCL rehab:


Edit: Blaze Jordan hit a walkoff in this game for his first pro HR.
 
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RoDaddy

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Have a night, Stephen Scott - 8 ribbies for Salem!

Franchy has struck out in half his ABs in July

Jeter Downs' ave now down to .229 with a sub .700 OPS - should we be worried? He's young for AAA but even there, will turn 23 in a few weeks
 

ZMart100

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I've never had huge expectations for Jeter. Coming from LA I thought he might be an average starter if everything worked out right, but that seems less likely now. I still think there's a good chance he is a useful utility infielder.
 

Chainsaw318

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Have a night, Stephen Scott - 8 ribbies for Salem!

Franchy has struck out in half his ABs in July

Jeter Downs' ave now down to .229 with a sub .700 OPS - should we be worried? He's young for AAA but even there, will turn 23 in a few weeks
I've never had huge expectations for Jeter. Coming from LA I thought he might be an average starter if everything worked out right, but that seems less likely now. I still think there's a good chance he is a useful utility infielder.
I am not going to scout box scores too much on Downs, who has seemed to profile as a “solid everywhere” player rather than a flashy tools player.

This year is still so strange, as he had 12 games in AA in 2019, then nothing last year. This year then involves a late start, leaving to play in international qualifiers and the Futures game, and overall dealing with a jump to AAA.

That lost year of play is going to mess with our perception for a long time. Until the scouting reports change, I’m going to be surprised if he isn’t a solid regular for an MLB team.
 

Cesar Crespo

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2018 2nd round pick Nick Decker is hitting .250/.374/.434 in 91 PA for Salem this year. He has 14 bb/21k. 23.1% K rate compared to the 30.2% he sported in his first full season. It's only his 2nd full year. The 2018 draft is going to be a weird one to evaluate for awhile as most of them are a year older than their previous counterparts. Plus power, good arm. Should be ok in RF. Biggest concern is the swing and miss in his game. He got a $1.25 million signing bonus.

2019 26th round pick Brandon Walter lit up Salem with a 1.45 era in 31.0 ip with 6bb/46k in 13 appearances. He hasn't faired as well in Greenville but is still striking guys out and it's only 2 games. He got lit up his last time out. 3..1 ip, 10 hits, 9r/7er, 0bb/7k. Gave up 3 HRs. For the year in both leagues, he has 7bb/59k in 38.0 ip. 36.2% K rate, 4.3% BB rate.

The Greenville Trio
Tyler Dearden: .284/.411/.544 for the year in 209 PA with 33bb/53k. He is walking more and striking out considerably less this year while tapping into his power.

Tyreque Reed: .296/.405/.587 in 215 PA. 30bb/55k. He's pretty much hit every step of the way minus a small hiccup in A+ in 2019.

Brandon Howlett: .273/.366/.519 in 216 PA. 24bb/73k. The most interesting of the bunch due to his age and position. Still striking out way too much though.

Alex Schreff since being promoted to AA: 4 games, 5.1 ip, 3 hits, 0 runs, 0bb/7k. For the year at both levels: 2.25 era, 28.0 ip, 11bb/44k. 21% strike Swinging %.

Kutter Crawford: 3.35 era, 40.1 ip, 5bb/55k. 36.9% K rate.
Last 3 games
4.1 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/7k.
6.0 ip, 3 hits, 2r/2er, 0bb/10k, 2 HRA
6.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 0bb/8k, 1 HRA

In 2019, he had 15bb/23k in 19.1 in AA innings. The walk rate is waayyyyyyyy down. Career 9.4%. This year: 3.4%.

Josh Ockimey's last 25 in AAA: 92 PA, .250/.380/.579 on a .262 BAbip. 8 HR, 16bb/26k.
In 2019: .204/.353/.459
in 2021: .206/.331/.460.

Last year he had a 53.8% Three True Outcomes %. This year it's at 60.9%.

Freddy Valdez first 6 games: .227/.400/.409 with 2 triples 6bb/6k in 30 PA.
 

burstnbloom

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Thanks for that write up @Cesar Crespo. Lots of good news on the farm these days. Scherff is interesting because he’s now a full time bullpen arm and the stuff is playing up in that role according to Sox prospects podcast. He could be in the mix soon.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Kutter Crawford: 3.35 era, 40.1 ip, 5bb/55k. 36.9% K rate.
Last 3 games
4.1 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/7k.
6.0 ip, 3 hits, 2r/2er, 0bb/10k, 2 HRA
6.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 0bb/8k, 1 HRA
And last night: 6.0 ip, 7 hits, 2r/2er, 0bb/9k.

Interesting. Very interesting. Granted he's 25 and in AA but the lost year makes it confusing. Also, Kutter Crawford is an awesome name for a pitcher. And yes, he throws a cutter. It's his best pitch. It's a plus pitch that generates swings and misses.

Last 4 combined: 22.1 ip, 16 hits, 6r/6er, 1bb/34k. Hitters slashing .198/.207/.383. 41.5% K rate, 1.2% BB rate.

For the year, 46.1 ip, 33 hits, 5bb/64k. Ridiculous.
 

mwonow

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And last night: 6.0 ip, 7 hits, 2r/2er, 0bb/9k.

Interesting. Very interesting. Granted he's 25 and in AA but the lost year makes it confusing. Also, Kutter Crawford is an awesome name for a pitcher. And yes, he throws a cutter. It's his best pitch. It's a plus pitch that generates swings and misses.

Last 4 combined: 22.1 ip, 16 hits, 6r/6er, 1bb/34k. Hitters slashing .198/.207/.383. 41.5% K rate, 1.2% BB rate.

For the year, 46.1 ip, 33 hits, 5bb/64k. Ridiculous.
5 bb in 46 ip - sounds like a Bananaball natural!
 

Jason Bae

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Seabold's first AAA start was... not great. He got screwed over by a 4-error inning.

3.1 IP, 3 H, 6 R (3 earned), 4 walks, 1 K
 

RoDaddy

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Some nice developments on the farm. Among others:
- Jeremy Wu-Yelland - he's had some great outtings including 4 no-hit innings in his last one
- Pedro Castellanos - his power game is developing nicely; real good year in his overall development so far
- Tyreque Reed anyone? Off to a great start in AA after a great first half in high A. If he can keep it up, he might beome an interesting first base option

Not all good - Marcis Wilson and the entire WooSox offense are struggling
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Some nice developments on the farm. Among others:
- Jeremy Wu-Yelland - he's had some great outtings including 4 no-hit innings in his last one
- Pedro Castellanos - his power game is developing nicely; real good year in his overall development so far
- Tyreque Reed anyone? Off to a great start in AA after a great first half in high A. If he can keep it up, he might beome an interesting first base option

Not all good - Marcis Wilson and the entire WooSox offense are struggling
I was kind of sad Castellanos popped up in trade rumors but I was also happy that other people are starting to take notice and I'm not just yelling at the clouds. His power spike isn't at Duran's level but it is legit and should be warranting some attention.

At .303/.371/.500 in 256 PA atm, with 11 HRs, 22bb/43k. He's also not that old, especially when you factor in covid (23 in AA).

Tyreque Reed is also interesting, though he was quite old for Greenville. Portland is a bit more age appropriate.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also, WooSox may be struggling but Josh Ockimey isn't. .400/.512/.714 in his last 13 games, 43 PA. 3 HRs, 8bb/7k.

If he could ever limit the strikeouts/make better contact, he'd be a monster. Well that and if he had a position. I have zero belief he will do those things though. He does draw tons of walks and he has massive power. For the year, he's at .224/.350/.469 with a .301 BAbip in 177 PA. 28bb/64k.
 

Cesar Crespo

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New BA top 100 has some interesting movement:

View: https://twitter.com/dakrandall/status/1419707210310037508?s=21


Duran and Casas each stick around as top 25 prospects. Mayer debuts at #35. Downs completely drops out of top 100.
Yeah, even with all the legit excuses, Downs is having a dreadful year. HIs OPS dropped below the .600 mark last night. .201/.276/.319 in 229 PA, 19bb/72k. Not a pretty picture. He turns 23 tomorrow so he still has time to figure it out.
 

ehaz

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Blaze Jordan is mashing:
Casual reminder that Blaze Jordan is actually 7 days younger than Marcelo Mayer. It's early, but Bloom's first draft is looking nice. Would anyone be surprised if a few years from now the better position player prospects in the system actually ended up being the teenagers (Blaze, Yorke, Mayer) rather than Casas/Downs/Duran?
 

nighthob

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I might move Casas to the left hand column. He's been impacted by the lost covid year, but he's still just 21 and has monster power. But Bloom's first draft is looking awfully good at the top as Yorke also looks like a keeper.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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It’s a little longer/smoother/less violent but his swing reminds me a bit of Carlos Delgado.
 
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nazz45

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They mention Votto in the clip and that is almost dead on stance wise. Not as much as a pronounced stride as Delgado had (no stride on that particular home run by Casas).

43106
 

ehaz

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Casas hit another home run and a double today vs Japan.

Much better competition vs what he’s slumped against recently in AA.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Tyler Dearden's on a tear atm. Last 6: .375/.444/.875, 4 HRs, 3bb/4k in 27 PA. Season line now at .277/.402/.545 with 41bb/68 in 261 PA. He's been remarkably consistent all year though.

Howlett's been cold though. Last 19: 77 PA, .164/.260/.313, 8bb/29k.

Kutter Crawford was promoted to AAA and in his first start went 6.0 ip, 9 hits, 3r/3er, 1bb/5k. Keep an eye on him.

Cameron Cannon is slashing .305/.352/.466 in 315 PA with 15bb/33k. He was the 2nd round pick in 2019. He had an awful 2019 and there was no 2020 so I wonder if people are overlooking him at all. He hit .379/.427/.568 in July (103 PA).

Blaze Jordan is off to a great start: 18 games, 73 PA, .348/.397/.621, 3 HR, 6bb/13k.

Eddison Paulino is too: 56 PA, .426/.518/.660 with 7bb/11k.
 

ehaz

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Crazy that Blaze is actually a week younger than Marcelo Mayer. If Mayer hit .362/.408/.667 in his first 20 pro games, the Keith Laws and Kevin Goldsteins of the prospect world would be rushing to insert him in the top 10 of their overall prospect lists for 2022.
 

Sin Duda

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Triston Casas hits another homerun, this time a 2-run jack in the first inning against his Portland Seadogs teammate Denyi Reyes, who was on the bump for the Dominican Republic. He said after the game he's only batted, against Denyi once, in spring training, and took him deep then too.

HR in 3rd straight game (the announcer calls him CASS ass; I presume it's CASS ǝs)

As a side note, Scott Kazmir is pitching for the USA and is available as a late-season starter pickup.
 

ehaz

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Seabold putting together an excellent start in Worcester tonight. Just allowed a single for the first hit of the game in the 5th inning.

5 IP 1 H 1 BB 0 R 8 Ks

70 pitches.
 

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Any idea on velocity? He’s probably guaranteed to be better than Richards, he should be up.
Probably a lot less than a guarantee. He'd thrown a total of 14 innings in the Minors this season heading into tonight, and his stats are comparable to what Richards has done in the bigs. Let's pump the breaks and let him get a few more minor league starts this season under his belt.
 

Apisith

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Probably a lot less than a guarantee. He'd thrown a total of 14 innings in the Minors this season heading into tonight, and his stats are comparable to what Richards has done in the bigs. Let's pump the breaks and let him get a few more minor league starts this season under his belt.
Richards has an ERA of 7.26 post sticky-stuff crackdown. His pitches aren't the same anymore, they don't spin the same. He's throwing a changeup that he admits he just learnt last month. He's not a major league pitcher anymore. The only reason he's getting starts is because he's being paid $10m. Sticking with him is stupid and I hope Bloom DFAs him when Sale is back, and if Sale is not replacing him then Seabold should.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Richards has an ERA of 7.26 post sticky-stuff crackdown. His pitches aren't the same anymore, they don't spin the same. He's throwing a changeup that he admits he just learnt last month. He's not a major league pitcher anymore. The only reason he's getting starts is because he's being paid $10m. Sticking with him is stupid and I hope Bloom DFAs him when Sale is back, and if Sale is not replacing him then Seabold should.
Emotion is great. Facts are better. You make a lot of declarative statements with no backup. Yes, the sticky ban has hurt him a lot. He has admitted that. The fact that he is throwing a changeup that he just learned isn't necessarily seen by the team as a negative. There is no evidence that the team feels that he isn't a major league pitcher anymore or that they're starting him only because of his salary. Literally none, unless you've been having drinks with Chaim. He has actually had spurts of looking pretty good, including yesterday. Maybe he'd be good in the bullpen, and the team will decide that. Seabold had a great game tonight. He's had 14 mediocre innings prior to tonight. He didn't pitch last year. There is a pretty good chance that the team disagrees that he is ready to take over for Richards right now, as you declare he should.
I'm hopeful he can be a contributor, but not yet.
 

nazz45

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No idea on velocity but here are all 20 of the whiffs Seabold had on the night

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1423094796290334725?s=20
That’s a lot of change-ups. In and out of the strike zone. Definitely got away with a couple belt high ones but you can see why that’s a plus pitch for him. Located the fastball real well (tied up Voit on one). I think one good slider among the swing and misses (also Voit - maybe another change, not sure).

He can easily replace Richards’ hair in the rotation at the least.
 

Apisith

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Emotion is great. Facts are better. You make a lot of declarative statements with no backup. Yes, the sticky ban has hurt him a lot. He has admitted that. The fact that he is throwing a changeup that he just learned isn't necessarily seen by the team as a negative. There is no evidence that the team feels that he isn't a major league pitcher anymore or that they're starting him only because of his salary. Literally none, unless you've been having drinks with Chaim. He has actually had spurts of looking pretty good, including yesterday. Maybe he'd be good in the bullpen, and the team will decide that. Seabold had a great game tonight. He's had 14 mediocre innings prior to tonight. He didn't pitch last year. There is a pretty good chance that the team disagrees that he is ready to take over for Richards right now, as you declare he should.
I'm hopeful he can be a contributor, but not yet.
I guess it's smart to continue to give away games in a tight playoff race so a guy can relearn how to pitch again (his words, not mine). His spin rate's down 7-10% for his main pitches, and for a guy who's never thrown a changeup before, he's suddenly throwing it 10-12% of the time. And from throwing his curve 18% of the time, he's suddenly only throwing it ~9% of the time. It's ridiculous that he's being allowed to relearn how to pitch on the fly and costing the team a ton of games.

The facts are pretty clear regarding the spin rate of his pitches and how bad he's been post-sticky stuff. Yes, it's my conjecture that he's getting games because he's being paid a lot, because what else would explain running out a guy every 5 days who's getting shelled all the time?
 

ehaz

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If he pans out and Whitlock/Seabold/Pivetta one day becomes 3/5ths of the rotation, Chaim should get a statue.

The corpses of Hembree/Workman for not one but potentially two starters is nuts.
 

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I guess it's smart to continue to give away games in a tight playoff race so a guy can relearn how to pitch again (his words, not mine). His spin rate's down 7-10% for his main pitches, and for a guy who's never thrown a changeup before, he's suddenly throwing it 10-12% of the time. And from throwing his curve 18% of the time, he's suddenly only throwing it ~9% of the time. It's ridiculous that he's being allowed to relearn how to pitch on the fly and costing the team a ton of games.

The facts are pretty clear regarding the spin rate of his pitches and how bad he's been post-sticky stuff. Yes, it's my conjecture that he's getting games because he's being paid a lot, because what else would explain running out a guy every 5 days who's getting shelled all the time?
Because for the past month or so, Pivetta and Perez haven't been any better. He's not a glaring weak link compared to others right now and he has actually showed some flashes as of late. There is a legitimate chance that the team sees something in how he is reinventing himself on the fly. Who knows what they think about Pivetta and Perez. I don't claim to have that insight.

EDIT--and the "ton of games" you say that he is costing the team--the team is 3-4 in his starts since the ban went into effect. That's somewhat less than a ton.
 
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Apisith

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Because for the past month or so, Pivetta and Perez haven't been any better. He's not a glaring weak link compared to others right now and he has actually showed some flashes as of late. There is a legitimate chance that the team sees something in how he is reinventing himself on the fly. Who knows what they think about Pivetta and Perez. I don't claim to have that insight.

EDIT--and the "ton of games" you say that he is costing the team--the team is 3-4 in his starts since the ban went into effect. That's somewhat less than a ton.
It’s surprising to see on SoSH that a pitcher’s effectiveness for the team is being judged by whether the team wins his starts or not. He’s averaging less than 5 innings per start, his awful pitching is taxing the bullpen. Just because the offense has been able to win a few games doesn’t mean he’s been effective.

Even being charitable and judging him on his last three starts instead of all 7 post-sticky stuff crackdown, his ERA’s 7.24 and he’s thrown 13 innings in three starts. Averaging less than five innings per game. Over his last two starts, he’s averaging 4 innings with an ERA of nearly 8.

Perez and Pivetta have an ERA of ~5 over their last 7 starts post sticky-stuff crackdown.

Let’s hope you’re right and they’re seeing something because the results have been disastrous.

It’s highly unlikely - dare I say almost impossible, given Seabold’s pedigree - for him to be as bad as Richards has been. Our bad pitchers last year, like Mazza, were better than Richards has been over his last 7 starts.
 

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It’s surprising to see on SoSH that a pitcher’s effectiveness for the team is being judged by whether the team wins his starts or not. He’s averaging less than 5 innings per start, his awful pitching is taxing the bullpen. Just because the offense has been able to win a few games doesn’t mean he’s been effective.

Even being charitable and judging him on his last three starts instead of all 7 post-sticky stuff crackdown, his ERA’s 7.24 and he’s thrown 13 innings in three starts. Averaging less than five innings per game. Over his last two starts, he’s averaging 4 innings with an ERA of nearly 8.

Perez and Pivetta have an ERA of ~5 over their last 7 starts post sticky-stuff crackdown.

Let’s hope you’re right and they’re seeing something because the results have been disastrous.

It’s highly unlikely - dare I say almost impossible, given Seabold’s pedigree - for him to be as bad as Richards has been. Our bad pitchers last year, like Mazza, were better than Richards has been over his last 7 starts.
I was literally responding to your comment that he was costing the team a ton of games. If that isn't judging his effectiveness by whether the team wins or not, than I don't know what is.
It's ridiculous that he's being allowed to relearn how to pitch on the fly and costing the team a ton of games.
Your cherry picking your sample sizes is fun. Pick the last three games, so you can ignore that the two before those were better. But fortunately the team looks deeper than a small sample ERA to evaluate pitchers. It’s surprising to see on SoSH that a pitcher’s effectiveness for the team is being judged by a very SSS ERA.

Seabold--a 25 year old who has never pitched in the Majors--has a pedigree that makes it almost impossible for him to be as bad as Richards. That's some interesting analysis/wishcasting too.

I'm done with this. And to be crystal clear, I am hopeful that Seabold is a future contributor to the Sox. My point was and continues to be that he needs some more seasoning before he's ready. Beyond that, I don't claim to be omniscient.
 

Apisith

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I'm also not claiming to be omniscient but Richards has been one of the worse pitchers in baseball post-sticky stuff crackdown. My point is that it's highly unlikely for Seabold to be as bad, given his pedigree. He could, but we can have a bet on it.

Post June 21, Richards has a WPA of -6.1. Based on this, he's cost the team 6 wins. Sounds about right given how bad he's been, even if we're 3-4 in those games.

I'm not cherry picking sample sizes, I've given you a full sample size of games post-sticky stuff crackdown, which you responded by saying he's looked better lately, so I've given you the last three games and the last two games as a sample, which he's been even worse than over the full 7 games.

Anyway, my point is I'm frustrated at seeing Richards being trot out every 5 days and sucking. Let's go with Seabold. He has the raw stuff and has the minor league track record which backs up that raw stuff.
 
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Apisith

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Let's talk about something more positive: Nick Yorke has an OPS of .974 from June onwards. Fangraphs has him ranked #17 while Sox Prospects has him at #8. He's going to rise quickly.
 

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Post June 21, Richards has a WPA of -6.1. Based on this, he's cost the team 6 wins. Sounds about right given how bad he's been, even if we're 3-4 in those games.
I promised myself I'd stop, but I need to be educated on how he could have cost the team 6 wins when the team is 3-4 in his games. That's all I'd like to understand.
 

E5 Yaz

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I promised myself I'd stop, but I need to be educated on how he could have cost the team 6 wins when the team is 3-4 in his games. That's all I'd like to understand.
Results on the field don't matter as much as stats cherry-picked to justify a premise
 

Apisith

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I apologize, actually. I read the wrong line on baseball reference. He's only been worth -1.2 wins based on WPA over his last 7 starts.
 
Triston Casas hits another homerun, this time a 2-run jack in the first inning against his Portland Seadogs teammate Denyi Reyes, who was on the bump for the Dominican Republic. He said after the game he's only batted, against Denyi once, in spring training, and took him deep then too.

HR in 3rd straight game (the announcer calls him CASS ass; I presume it's CASS ǝs)

As a side note, Scott Kazmir is pitching for the USA and is available as a late-season starter pickup.
You guys know there's a SoSHer calling Casas' bombs in Tokyo 2020, right? ;) Even gave you guys a subtle plug at the end of this clip:

View: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vicjhF0ZttN6dqTui3GRu3tmn3LSCIDt/view?usp=sharing
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Groome 5ip 1h 6k/1bb 0r, 58 pitches
Yorke with a bomb, 16 game hit streak 35 game on-base streak