Reading Jonah Keri's MLB trade value article on Grantland (http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10080878/mlb-trade-value-rankings-part-2), got to the #1 player on his list: Mike Trout. He suggests that the FA bidding for Trout today would be around $400 million.
He's 22. He's put up these two seasons at ages 20 and 21:
Age 20: .326/.399/.564/.963, 168 ops+, 49 sb, 10.9 bWAR
Age 21: .323/.432/.557/.988, 179 ops+, 33 sb, 9.2 bWAR
He can literally do everything on a baseball field - he has a great eye, he hits for average, he hits for serious power, he runs like the wind, he is a great defensive player, he's durable.
Let's say he was a FA right now. What kind of contract do you think he would end up with? 10/300? 12/360? Would a team seriously consider a 15-year, $450 deal?
To put it into context, the past two seasons he's been worth more WAR (by b-ref) than Miguel (two-straight MVP) Cabrera by nearly SIX. Assume one WAR is worth about $5 million, and it means that Trout is playing at a value of about $45-50 million a year. It's insane. Jacoby Ellsbury just got a contract worth, what, $22 million a year (give or take a little)? And he is about a 5 WAR guy. Trout is so much better than Jacoby it's scary. And, again, he's just 22 years old. He hasn't even reached the beginning of his prime yet.
He's 22. He's put up these two seasons at ages 20 and 21:
Age 20: .326/.399/.564/.963, 168 ops+, 49 sb, 10.9 bWAR
Age 21: .323/.432/.557/.988, 179 ops+, 33 sb, 9.2 bWAR
He can literally do everything on a baseball field - he has a great eye, he hits for average, he hits for serious power, he runs like the wind, he is a great defensive player, he's durable.
Let's say he was a FA right now. What kind of contract do you think he would end up with? 10/300? 12/360? Would a team seriously consider a 15-year, $450 deal?
To put it into context, the past two seasons he's been worth more WAR (by b-ref) than Miguel (two-straight MVP) Cabrera by nearly SIX. Assume one WAR is worth about $5 million, and it means that Trout is playing at a value of about $45-50 million a year. It's insane. Jacoby Ellsbury just got a contract worth, what, $22 million a year (give or take a little)? And he is about a 5 WAR guy. Trout is so much better than Jacoby it's scary. And, again, he's just 22 years old. He hasn't even reached the beginning of his prime yet.