Michael Chavis, SS: 2014 MLB Draft 26th overall

BaseballJones

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Last 17 games for Chavis: 4 hr, 16 rbi, .303/.329/.513/.842

This followed a stretch of 23 games where he went 2 hr, 7 rbi, .193/.272/.313/.585

So for sure he seems to have righted the ship.
 

chawson

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Last 17 games for Chavis: 4 hr, 16 rbi, .303/.329/.513/.842

This followed a stretch of 23 games where he went 2 hr, 7 rbi, .193/.272/.313/.585

So for sure he seems to have righted the ship.
I’m not so sure about this. He’s got a 3.8% walk rate and 32.9% K rate over those last 17 games, with a .413 BABIP.
 

jon abbey

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And all London numbers should be seriously discounted, positive and negative both (positive in Chavis' case).
 

chawson

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And all London numbers should be seriously discounted, positive and negative both (positive in Chavis' case).
Plus this for sure.

Not sure it’s worth it for this season, but I bet Chavis would be enough to get Will Smith. The Giants should be sunsetting Joe Panik, and Chavis’s fly ball distance would play well in that park. With Marco playing well, we might be able to package Nuñez along with him to offset costs, freeing up cash for another acquisition elsewhere.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Plus this for sure.

Not sure it’s worth it for this season, but I bet Chavis would be enough to get Will Smith. The Giants should be sunsetting Joe Panik, and Chavis’s fly ball distance would play well in that park. With Marco playing well, we might be able to package Nuñez along with him to offset costs, freeing up cash for another acquisition elsewhere.
Give up a 23-year-old rookie infielder with tape-measure power who can play 2B for a 2-month bullpen rental? Sure, what could go wrong?
 

BoSox Rule

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Plus this for sure.

Not sure it’s worth it for this season, but I bet Chavis would be enough to get Will Smith. The Giants should be sunsetting Joe Panik, and Chavis’s fly ball distance would play well in that park. With Marco playing well, we might be able to package Nuñez along with him to offset costs, freeing up cash for another acquisition elsewhere.
Maybe they can throw in Benintendi for something else that won’t really help all that much.
 

chawson

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Give up a 23-year-old rookie infielder with tape-measure power who can play 2B for a 2-month bullpen rental? Sure, what could go wrong?
You’re probably right that Chavis could fetch more.

The thing that could go wrong of course is that he goes full Middlebrooks. I just don’t buy that the Red Sox are fully in on him. The team has ranked anywhere from first to third in contact rate MLB-wide during the Dombrowski era. Chavis’s 65.1% contact rate is currently dead last in all of baseball.
 

chawson

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Maybe they can throw in Benintendi for something else that won’t really help all that much.
You mean our league average left-fielder who’s taking time in the middle of the season to retool his swing?

The time to trade Benintendi was last winter.

Player A: .272/.345/.405 .133 ISO, 99 wRC+ in 588 PA
Player B: .270/.346/.361 .091 ISO, 99 wRC+ in 408 PA
Player C: .303/.385/.445 .142 ISO, 127 wRC+ in 536 PA
Player D: .247/.344/.426 .179 ISO, 108 wRC+ in 366 PA
Player E: .267/.326/.481 .214 ISO, 114 wRC+ in 528 PA
Player F: .281/.356/.439 .158 ISO, 106 wRC+ in 354 PA

Player A: Benintendi since the 2018 all-star break
Player B: Nava’s bad year (2014)
Player C: Nava’s good year (2013)
Player D: Jonny Gomes’ 2013
Player E: Cody Ross’ 2012
Player F: Nick Markakis’ 2019 (1/$4M)

Hanley aside, it’s easy for the Sox to plug a hitter into left field. I agree it would have been a bold move, but DD could have traded Benintendi last off-season for anyone except maybe the 20 best players in baseball. Fangraphs ranked him higher than Acuña in their 2018 trade values series, for chrissakes. There were about five or six more or less freely available options who have performed as well or better this year (García, Pence, Markakis, Melky, Grossman, Bruce) to say nothing of free agents like Michael Brantley or McCutchen.

Had DD sent him to, say, San Diego for Paddack and Renfroe; or to Cincinnati for Castillo and Winker; or to Cleveland for Shane Bieber and Yandy Diaz, we’d have our Porcello replacement in house and have a better team today.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
You’re probably right that Chavis could fetch more.

The thing that could go wrong of course is that he goes full Middlebrooks. I just don’t buy that the Red Sox are fully in on him. The team has ranked anywhere from first to third in contact rate MLB-wide during the Dombrowski era. Chavis’s 65.1% contact rate is currently dead last in all of baseball.
The WMB comp is a fair one, though it's interesting that you mention contact rate because WMB's was not bad when he was a rookie -- only a little below league average. His swing numbers were OK too. Yet he could never draw walks on the ML level to save his life (career rate 5.2%), which suggests to me that he was not, shall we say, the cagiest chess player the batter's box has ever seen. Chavis may end up going the same route, but from what we've seen so far I think he stands a decent chance of doing better. Either way, trading him one-up for a Smith rental seems like selling him too short at this stage. Maybe if there are other legs to the deal that favor us overall, that might make sense.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The WMB comp is a fair one, though it's interesting that you mention contact rate because WMB's was not bad when he was a rookie -- only a little below league average. His swing numbers were OK too. Yet he could never draw walks on the ML level to save his life (career rate 5.2%), which suggests to me that he was not, shall we say, the cagiest chess player the batter's box has ever seen. Chavis may end up going the same route, but from what we've seen so far I think he stands a decent chance of doing better. Either way, trading him one-up for a Smith rental seems like selling him too short at this stage. Maybe if there are other legs to the deal that favor us overall, that might make sense.
WMB also had the issues with his eyes that he would not correct.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Chavis had his 19th sac fly/RBI opportunity PA tonight. He has 3 hits, 8 Ks and 3 walks.

He has zero sac flies. Tonight you could see why. He doesn't ever shorten up. Ever. In his defense, he probably has no idea how. HIs road to the majors was not hitting sacrifice flies or making contact or knocking runners from first to third. If anything, he seems to swing harder with two outs. I'm guessing that whatever sac flies he's hit in his career have probably been unintentional, not because he has shortened up to make contact.

Tonight, it paid off. He crushed one. He took the kind of swing that was almost by definition going to be a binary result -- either a home run or an inning crushing second out strike out.

So, I guess the question is whether this is the new baseball? Is the occasional rocket shot worth the very frequent unproductive outs? From a run production standpoint, is Chavis' approach more likely to score more runs and win more games the way the game is played now? He has the fourth worst swing and miss rate in baseball according to fangraphs if I'm reading it correctly, and so he's going to fail very often in that spot. But a run is a run and it takes four sac flies to score the same runs as Chavis drove in tonight. I'm probably guilty of some outdated thinking in feeling as though the inability to hit situationally matters any more. Is this all already captured fine in stats like WAR?

The truth is that situationally speaking, tonight was probably the perfect time to "go for the downs" as our friend DOB would say. It was the first inning. Trading an out for the second run of the game that early maybe isn't as valuable but there's going to be a time this year when one run is as good as a million in the late innings and he will have no tools to do anything about it.

It feels like MLB in 2019 puts zero empahsis on scoring runs with outs and maybe that's the way it should be. It just feels like a very different game from the one that I've been accustomed to, and Chavis is kind of a poster boy for the issue.
 

mwonow

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I come to this thread mostly to shake my head at the level of disrespect that Chavis gets here.

He's not perfect. But you know what he is? Amongst AL 2Bers, he's first in HR, 2nd in RBI, 5th in SLG, T-8 in runs, 9th in hits. Heck, for all the crap he gets here about swings and contact rate, he's T-3 for walks. 5th in OBP and 5th in OBS.

And he's a rook.

I honestly can't understand why posters here are so eager to ship him out of town. Or hand his lineup spot to Bobby f'n Dalbec, whose next swing against AAA pitching (let alone MLB pitchers) will be his first.

It may well be that Chavis will eventually play his way out of the lineup or out of the league...but until that day arrives, why not appreciate what Chavis is doing for the hometown 9?
 

E5 Yaz

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I come to this thread mostly to shake my head at the level of disrespect that Chavis gets here.

He's not perfect. But you know what he is? Amongst AL 2Bers, he's first in HR, 2nd in RBI, 5th in SLG, T-8 in runs, 9th in hits. Heck, for all the crap he gets here about swings and contact rate, he's T-3 for walks. 5th in OBP and 5th in OBS.
He's no longer a 2B. 41 games at 1B, 29 at 2B. The stats you cite would need to be adjusted to reflect the portion of his offense at each position.

Other than that, I agree with you. He's having an excellent rookie season. Those expecting some sort of perfect player are losing out on simply enjoying what he's brought to the table
 

chawson

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I come to this thread mostly to shake my head at the level of disrespect that Chavis gets here.

He's not perfect. But you know what he is? Amongst AL 2Bers, he's first in HR, 2nd in RBI, 5th in SLG, T-8 in runs, 9th in hits. Heck, for all the crap he gets here about swings and contact rate, he's T-3 for walks. 5th in OBP and 5th in OBS.

And he's a rook.

I honestly can't understand why posters here are so eager to ship him out of town. Or hand his lineup spot to Bobby f'n Dalbec, whose next swing against AAA pitching (let alone MLB pitchers) will be his first.

It may well be that Chavis will eventually play his way out of the lineup or out of the league...but until that day arrives, why not appreciate what Chavis is doing for the hometown 9?
I fully appreciate this take and he’s had some great moments, but I disagree that the skepticism about Chavis is disrespectful. After a glorious first 14 games when pitchers didn’t know how to throw him, he’s put up a 75 wRC+ since May 5, and those numbers includes whatever sport they were playing in London. That’s about what Nuñez hit last year.

If we reason that those stats reflect who Chavis really is and imagine that they were accumulated entirely at second base, he’d rank 32 out of 40 MLB second basemen in 2019. If they came entirely while playing first, he’d rank 37 of 39 first basemen.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I have nothing but respect for what Chavis has done. Nunez stunk, Pedroia can’t play, Lin and Hernandez we’re not going to be reliable options, Cora apparently believes Holt is most effective if he isn’t playing 6 games a week, and our thunder and lightening at 1B can’t seem to stay on the field.

I don’t know where we would be if Chavis hadn’t shown up on day 1 and been able to play competent replacement level plus baseball every day. I’m skeptical whether this team can go on a streak and grab a wild card spot and make some noise. But it’s still possible and without Chavis I don’t know if they are in this position, such as it is. There was every reason to be worried that he was not going to be able to make the jump, but he did.

I don’t take any of that for granted. That doesn’t change the fact that he is clearly not yet a complete baseball player and there is at least reason to be concerned whether he will be. Nor is it possible to know yet whether he can become one while playing in the majors. Even Devers needed some minors time.

The advantage he has is that the thing he does best is one of the most exciting plays in sports. But that can be a mirage. Sox need to keep all options on the table and use him to the best effect to make the team better, and that could mean lots of things.
 

Devizier

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I fully appreciate this take and he’s had some great moments, but I disagree that the skepticism about Chavis is disrespectful. After a glorious first 14 games when pitchers didn’t know how to throw him, he’s put up a 75 wRC+ since May 5, and those numbers includes whatever sport they were playing in London. That’s about what Nuñez hit last year.

If we reason that those stats reflect who Chavis really is and imagine that they were accumulated entirely at second base, he’d rank 32 out of 40 MLB second basemen in 2019. If they came entirely while playing first, he’d rank 37 of 39 first basemen.
That’s cherry picking however; players adjust, too. It’s not just opponents that make changes.
 

EricFeczko

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I come to this thread mostly to shake my head at the level of disrespect that Chavis gets here.

He's not perfect. But you know what he is? Amongst AL 2Bers, he's first in HR, 2nd in RBI, 5th in SLG, T-8 in runs, 9th in hits. Heck, for all the crap he gets here about swings and contact rate, he's T-3 for walks. 5th in OBP and 5th in OBS.

And he's a rook.

I honestly can't understand why posters here are so eager to ship him out of town. Or hand his lineup spot to Bobby f'n Dalbec, whose next swing against AAA pitching (let alone MLB pitchers) will be his first.

It may well be that Chavis will eventually play his way out of the lineup or out of the league...but until that day arrives, why not appreciate what Chavis is doing for the hometown 9?
I have nothing but respect for what Chavis has done. Nunez stunk, Pedroia can’t play, Lin and Hernandez we’re not going to be reliable options, Cora apparently believes Holt is most effective if he isn’t playing 6 games a week, and our thunder and lightening at 1B can’t seem to stay on the field.

I don’t know where we would be if Chavis hadn’t shown up on day 1 and been able to play competent replacement level plus baseball every day. I’m skeptical whether this team can go on a streak and grab a wild card spot and make some noise. But it’s still possible and without Chavis I don’t know if they are in this position, such as it is. There was every reason to be worried that he was not going to be able to make the jump, but he did.

I don’t take any of that for granted. That doesn’t change the fact that he is clearly not yet a complete baseball player and there is at least reason to be concerned whether he will be. Nor is it possible to know yet whether he can become one while playing in the majors. Even Devers needed some minors time.

The advantage he has is that the thing he does best is one of the most exciting plays in sports. But that can be a mirage. Sox need to keep all options on the table and use him to the best effect to make the team better, and that could mean lots of things.
Exactly. Chavis has done far beyond what anyone expected this year. This also makes him more valuable right now than at any point (and due to the years of control, this may be his peak trading value) prior in his career. There are also signs that suggest his ability to adjust to ML pitching may be somewhat limited, and while his defensive position may be flexible, he's an average defender.
If Dalbec continues to hit, and there's a buyer for Chavis, we would be dealing from strength; making Chavis an excellent trade piece.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Exactly. Chavis has done far beyond what anyone expected this year. This also makes him more valuable right now than at any point (and due to the years of control, this may be his peak trading value) prior in his career. There are also signs that suggest his ability to adjust to ML pitching may be somewhat limited, and while his defensive position may be flexible, he's an average defender.
If Dalbec continues to hit, and there's a buyer for Chavis, we would be dealing from strength; making Chavis an excellent trade piece.
Except Dalbec isn't hitting, so how can he continue to? I think people are severely underestimating how bad Dalbec's contact skills are. It's hard to be a productive baseball player if you are hitting .200.
 

j44thor

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I fully appreciate this take and he’s had some great moments, but I disagree that the skepticism about Chavis is disrespectful. After a glorious first 14 games when pitchers didn’t know how to throw him, he’s put up a 75 wRC+ since May 5, and those numbers includes whatever sport they were playing in London. That’s about what Nuñez hit last year.

If we reason that those stats reflect who Chavis really is and imagine that they were accumulated entirely at second base, he’d rank 32 out of 40 MLB second basemen in 2019. If they came entirely while playing first, he’d rank 37 of 39 first basemen.
Where does he rank when you take out the 10 best games of all the other players you cited? Do you think it is fair to take out 80% of his best games and compare him with the field including their best games? Cherry picking to prove a narrative is just that, cherry picking.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Exactly. Chavis has done far beyond what anyone expected this year. This also makes him more valuable right now than at any point (and due to the years of control, this may be his peak trading value) prior in his career. There are also signs that suggest his ability to adjust to ML pitching may be somewhat limited, and while his defensive position may be flexible, he's an average defender.
If Dalbec continues to hit, and there's a buyer for Chavis, we would be dealing from strength; making Chavis an excellent trade piece.
Yes, but if we were to do so I'd like to see them getting someone else young and cost-controlled back as well. X and Sale already signed their extensions and their other young players are going to get expensive quickly as well (or leave) - in a couple years they aren't going to have much in the way of cost-controlled MLB talent so I wouldn't be particularly enamored of giving up someone like Chavis for a bullpen piece or as part of a larger trade for a more established (and thus more expensive) player.
 

chawson

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Where does he rank when you take out the 10 best games of all the other players you cited? Do you think it is fair to take out 80% of his best games and compare him with the field including their best games? Cherry picking to prove a narrative is just that, cherry picking.
Sorry! I don’t mean to cherrypick. It seems pretty sensible to me that newly promoted hitters have an advantage the first couple weeks in the league before opposing teams have a chance to strategize against them. That seems different than removing a random hot streak in the middle of his season.

Chavis was seeing a ton of low and inside fastballs in those first couple weeks and he was destroying them. Pitchers have wised up and he’s been thrown a lot differently since, and that’s how I expect it’ll continue.
 

oumbi

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Sorry! I don’t mean to cherrypick. It seems pretty sensible to me that newly promoted hitters have an advantage the first couple weeks in the league before opposing teams have a chance to strategize against them. That seems different than removing a random hot streak in the middle of his season.

Chavis was seeing a ton of low and inside fastballs in those first couple weeks and he was destroying them. Pitchers have wised up and he’s been thrown a lot differently since, and that’s how I expect it’ll continue.
This is a real question and I do not know where to find the answer. Is the bolded statement above true? Are, on a consistent or common basis, minor leaguers who arrive in the majors good hitters and they have an advantage? It seems to me that while pitchers may have to figure out the new hitter, at the same time the new hitter has to figure our new pitchers, pitchers who are usually better than anything they have faced in their lives.

I have only anecdotal evidence now, but I remember Pedroia's appearance in the major not going well.
 

burstnbloom

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Except Dalbec isn't hitting, so how can he continue to? I think people are severely underestimating how bad Dalbec's contact skills are. It's hard to be a productive baseball player if you are hitting .200.
I don't know that this is fair. Dalbec's hit tool is certainly a concern but zips would have him as a positive value player right now, despite projecting a 44% K rate and a BA under .200. He's cut his k rate from last year and is showing an elite batting eye after making the difficult adjustment from A+ to AA. I wouldn't say he's a savior by any stretch, but he's a good bet to be a solid pro.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know that this is fair. Dalbec's hit tool is certainly a concern but zips would have him as a positive value player right now, despite projecting a 44% K rate and a BA under .200. He's cut his k rate from last year and is showing an elite batting eye after making the difficult adjustment from A+ to AA. I wouldn't say he's a savior by any stretch, but he's a good bet to be a solid pro.
0.6 WAR over 116 games. That's really using the term "positive value player" liberally. His zips projection is .200/.280/.407, wOBA of .296.

I
 

mwonow

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I don't know that this is fair. Dalbec's hit tool is certainly a concern but zips would have him as a positive value player right now, despite projecting a 44% K rate and a BA under .200. He's cut his k rate from last year and is showing an elite batting eye after making the difficult adjustment from A+ to AA. I wouldn't say he's a savior by any stretch, but he's a good bet to be a solid pro.
Glad we cleared that up. I wouldn't call a 'hitter' with a 1-something BA who whiffs nearly half the time a savior, either, unless I was an opposing pitcher with men on base in need of an out...
 

Al Zarilla

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Chavis had his 19th sac fly/RBI opportunity PA tonight. He has 3 hits, 8 Ks and 3 walks.

He has zero sac flies. Tonight you could see why. He doesn't ever shorten up. Ever. In his defense, he probably has no idea how. HIs road to the majors was not hitting sacrifice flies or making contact or knocking runners from first to third. If anything, he seems to swing harder with two outs. I'm guessing that whatever sac flies he's hit in his career have probably been unintentional, not because he has shortened up to make contact.

Tonight, it paid off. He crushed one. He took the kind of swing that was almost by definition going to be a binary result -- either a home run or an inning crushing second out strike out.

So, I guess the question is whether this is the new baseball? Is the occasional rocket shot worth the very frequent unproductive outs? From a run production standpoint, is Chavis' approach more likely to score more runs and win more games the way the game is played now? He has the fourth worst swing and miss rate in baseball according to fangraphs if I'm reading it correctly, and so he's going to fail very often in that spot. But a run is a run and it takes four sac flies to score the same runs as Chavis drove in tonight. I'm probably guilty of some outdated thinking in feeling as though the inability to hit situationally matters any more. Is this all already captured fine in stats like WAR?

The truth is that situationally speaking, tonight was probably the perfect time to "go for the downs" as our friend DOB would say. It was the first inning. Trading an out for the second run of the game that early maybe isn't as valuable but there's going to be a time this year when one run is as good as a million in the late innings and he will have no tools to do anything about it.

It feels like MLB in 2019 puts zero empahsis on scoring runs with outs and maybe that's the way it should be. It just feels like a very different game from the one that I've been accustomed to, and Chavis is kind of a poster boy for the issue.
Who does shorten up nowadays? Take some swing out. I can't think of anybody. Brett Gardner is one that you'd think might, but he's hitting homers with two strikes. First of all, players are programmed to take the full swing, in batting practice and games. At the end of a guy's BP, he'll bunt one or two, but not take a reduced swing. Maybe an analogy in golf: except for the pros on the tour, there are tons golfers that do well when taking a full swing with any club but within 120 yards of the green or something, when a reduced swing is required, they'll fluff shots all over the place. That's me, anyway. Pitching and chipping, argh. My point is that it isn't easy to do things part way. I see where you're coming from in that Chavis is the guy that makes you think why won't he take some swing out because his swing is so violent. But, nobody is telling him to, so he won't.
 
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burstnbloom

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0.6 WAR over 116 games. That's really using the term "positive value player" liberally. His zips projection is .200/.280/.407, wOBA of .296.

I
Since 0.0 is a replacement player, then above that is indeed a positive value player. Given that they are counting his last 3 years of minor league numbers in projections and bumping his k rate up 18% higher than it is now to account for the difference in competition, I don't think that is all that big of a deal. Zips projections for guys coming out of the minors usually look pretty bad. To say a guy with an .850 OPS in AA "can't hit" is a bit much. He's got a .269 BABIP this year. This year his strike out rate has improved, his walk rate has improved and he hasnt given up any power or batted ball tendencies to do it.

I think he's a reasonable bet to be a three true outcomes MLB player with an OPS in the high .700's and low .800's. There are plenty of positive players that look like him this year. Dozier (11.3% BB, 25%k, .230BA), Schwarber (12.4%BB, 27.5%k, .232BA), JBJ (11.1%BB, 25.7%K, .232 BA). Given his defense and 70 power grade, you can give up a fair amount on the hit tool before he's not someone with any value.


Glad we cleared that up. I wouldn't call a 'hitter' with a 1-something BA who whiffs nearly half the time a savior, either, unless I was an opposing pitcher with men on base in need of an out...
This post is pretty big value add.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Exactly. Chavis has done far beyond what anyone expected this year. This also makes him more valuable right now than at any point (and due to the years of control, this may be his peak trading value) prior in his career. There are also signs that suggest his ability to adjust to ML pitching may be somewhat limited, and while his defensive position may be flexible, he's an average defender.
If Dalbec continues to hit, and there's a buyer for Chavis, we would be dealing from strength; making Chavis an excellent trade piece.
Whether Chavis is at his peak trade value or not, and whether the Sox should trade him now or not, is an interesting discussion. I don't think it has anything to do with Bobby Dalbec. They don't play the same position, unless Dalbec's 82 minor league innings qualify him as direct competition for Chavis at 1B (which isn't likely Chavis' primary position going forward either). Dalbec being a year older and two levels behind him doesn't strike me as good incentive to rush Chavis out either.

Any talk of moving Chavis for a useful piece right now should center on factors on the big league roster. Specifically, are Moreland and/or Pearce going to be able to play regularly in August/September/October? Will Holt/Hernandez/Lin be good enough to get by at second base not just the rest of this season, but going forward as well (because trading for or signing a 2B might be cost-prohibitive given salary constraints)? Because for now, Chavis is filling a pretty important role for this team. To lose him, they need to be getting good value in return and be able to adequately fill his spot for the remainder of the season. I'm not sure they can ascertain all that info in the next two weeks (specifically the health of Moreland and Pearce), therefore I'm not sure they can afford to trade Chavis right now. Even if he's at peak value. He has more value to them as a player than a trade piece.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Since 0.0 is a replacement player, then above that is indeed a positive value player. Given that they are counting his last 3 years of minor league numbers in projections and bumping his k rate up 18% higher than it is now to account for the difference in competition, I don't think that is all that big of a deal. Zips projections for guys coming out of the minors usually look pretty bad. To say a guy with an .850 OPS in AA "can't hit" is a bit much. He's got a .269 BABIP this year. This year his strike out rate has improved, his walk rate has improved and he hasnt given up any power or batted ball tendencies to do it.

I think he's a reasonable bet to be a three true outcomes MLB player with an OPS in the high .700's and low .800's. There are plenty of positive players that look like him this year. Dozier (11.3% BB, 25%k, .230BA), Schwarber (12.4%BB, 27.5%k, .232BA), JBJ (11.1%BB, 25.7%K, .232 BA). Given his defense and 70 power grade, you can give up a fair amount on the hit tool before he's not someone with any value.




This post is pretty big value add.
Those all seem like terrible comps, and none of those 3 are three true outcome players. His comps are like Mark Reynolds and Rob Deer. If he hits as well as they do, cool. It has value. It's just hard to be productive when you are hitting .200. It's not impossible.
 

burstnbloom

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Those all seem like terrible comps, and none of those 3 are three true outcome players. His comps are like Mark Reynolds and Rob Deer. If he hits as well as they do, cool. It has value. It's just hard to be productive when you are hitting .200. It's not impossible.
They aren't player comps, they are guys with simlar walk/k/BA profiles to Dalbec this year. If either of the player comps you suggested were good defenders and not historically bad, they'd be pretty good players. Deer had a career wOBA of .341 and Reynolds .339. Those numbers would be in the middle third of major league 3b or 1b this year. Both managed to be 10+ WAR players in their careers despite being TERRIBLE defensively. Dalbec, by all accounts, is a good defender. You keep saying he's hitting .200 but he's batting .231 this year in AA with a .269 BABIP. He's never hit under .250 in a minor league season.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
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Sep 9, 2008
27,565
AZ
Who does shorten up nowadays? Take some swing out. I can't think of anybody. Brett Gardner is one that you'd think might, but he's hitting homers with two strikes. First of all, players are programmed to take the full swing, in batting practice and games. At the end of a guy's BP, he'll bunt one or two, but not take a reduced swing. Maybe an analogy in golf: except for the pros on the tour, there are tons golfers that do well when taking a full swing with any club but within 120 yards of the green or something, when a reduced swing is required, they'll fluff shots all over the place. That's me, anyway. Pitching and chipping, argh. My point is that it isn't easy to do things part way. I see where you're coming from in that Chavis is the guy that makes you think why won't he take some swing out because his swing is so violent. But, nobody is telling him to, so he won't.
I'm in Arizona so I see the D-backs and they seem to all have it as part of their game. But, yeah, I guess it's mostly guys who aren't a home run threat these days and that's probably what teams want. The Nick Ahmeds.

It's the gold standard but Trout shortens up when he needs to and he's pretty reliable to get the run home. But, yeah, pretty much not much of it any more.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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They aren't player comps, they are guys with simlar walk/k/BA profiles to Dalbec this year. If either of the player comps you suggested were good defenders and not historically bad, they'd be pretty good players. Deer had a career wOBA of .341 and Reynolds .339. Those numbers would be in the middle third of major league 3b or 1b this year. Both managed to be 10+ WAR players in their careers despite being TERRIBLE defensively. Dalbec, by all accounts, is a good defender. You keep saying he's hitting .200 but he's batting .231 this year in AA with a .269 BABIP. He's never hit under .250 in a minor league season.
In his first 3 full seasons he has hit .248, .257 and currently .231. So, yeah he has. He's currently on pace to do in 2 of his first 3 full seasons. And I get he's hitting .231, but he's hitting .231 in AA. What do you think .231 translates to in the majors?

Also, in that year he hit .248... guess what his BAbip was? It was .383. Last year it was .332 and he hit .257, anyway. Even with a good BAbip, he still doesn't hit for a decent average. Plus he's going to strike out more than 25% at the major league levels. The 3 guys you mentioned didn't strike out nearly as much at the minor league level as Dalbec does. Use guys with similar minor league profiles.
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
1,771
In his first 3 full seasons he has hit .248, .257 and currently .231. So, yeah he has. He's currently on pace to do in 2 of his first 3 full seasons. And I get he's hitting .231, but he's hitting .231 in AA. What do you think .231 translates to in the majors?

Also, in that year he hit .248... guess what his BAbip was? It was .383. Last year it was .332 and he hit .257, anyway. Even with a good BAbip, he still doesn't hit for a decent average. Plus he's going to strike out more than 25% at the major league levels. The 3 guys you mentioned didn't strike out nearly as much at the minor league level as Dalbec does. Use guys with similar minor league profiles.
You're mixing your metrics to suit your point. His history is to have a much higher BABIP than he does this year. If he has his minor league career average .312, he'd be hitting over .250. You can't say "he only hits .250 with his high BABIP years and this year his BABIP sucks!" That is circular. He probably will strike out more than 26% in the majors. What does that even mean? There is a place in MLB for low contact, high power guys. They aren't winning MVP's but they have value. Joey Gallo was worth 5.4 WAR between 2017 and 2018, he struck out 36% of the time and hit .207. You wouldn't want the poor man's version of that guy who plays above average defense on your team? Because of strike outs and batting average?

Again, the point wasn't to use those players as comps. You said you can't have value in the majors with a .230 BA and I showed you three players this year with similar offensive profiles that do. The comps that you gave did strike out a lot in the minors. Also, this isn't 1998, BA isn't the whole story, but you know that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Again, the point wasn't to use those players as comps. You said you can't have value in the majors with a .230 BA and I showed you three players this year with similar offensive profiles that do. The comps that you gave did strike out a lot in the minors. Also, this isn't 1998, BA isn't the whole story, but you know that.
No I didn't. I said it's hard to have value when you hit .200. Learn to read. The guy has also clearly hit below .250 in a season, and in a season where his BAbip was .383. You said he never hit below .250. He's on pace to do it 2 times in his first 3 full seasons. You use fake stats to suit your point.


edit: Seriously, you are arguing with my claim that it's hard to be a productive baseball player hitting .200 and you name like 2 or 3 guys. That proves my point.
 

burstnbloom

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Jul 12, 2005
1,771
No I didn't. I said it's hard to have value when you hit .200. Learn to read. The guy has also clearly hit below .250 in a season, and in a season where his BAbip was .383. You said he never hit below .250. He's on pace to do it 2 times in his first 3 full seasons. You use fake stats to suit your point.


edit: Seriously, you are arguing with my claim that it's hard to be a productive baseball player hitting .200 and you name like 2 or 3 guys. That proves my point.
This is very aggressive and bad posting. I thought this was SOSH and not twitter. I apologize for using a slight hyperbole when calling .248 .250.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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This is very aggressive and bad posting. I thought this was SOSH and not twitter. I apologize for using a slight hyperbole when calling .248 .250.
Your post was just as aggressive, dude.

edit: On top of that, Dalbec's average in full season baseball over the course of his career is .247 in 1061 PA. Career.
 
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chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
He doesn't ever shorten up. Ever. In his defense, he probably has no idea how. HIs road to the majors was not hitting sacrifice flies or making contact or knocking runners from first to third.
I thought for sure he was going the other way more about a month ago, and his spray charts suggest as much. Maybe his interest in doing so comes and goes.
 

mwonow

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Sep 4, 2005
5,130
This is very aggressive and bad posting. I thought this was SOSH and not twitter. I apologize for using a slight hyperbole when calling .248 .250.
I think you shouldn't be calling out other posters here - you're getting extreme in your fevered advocacy of a guy who is pretty clearly (at least at this point) not a major league hitter, and is not all that extraordinary in AA.

This is a thread about Chavis (whose results against ML pitching, as has been pointed out, compare pretty favorably with what Dalbec is doing in the minors). If you really want to keep up the "Dalbec RULEZ!" schtick, why don't you start a thread along those lines?
 

EricFeczko

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Apr 26, 2014
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Whether Chavis is at his peak trade value or not, and whether the Sox should trade him now or not, is an interesting discussion. I don't think it has anything to do with Bobby Dalbec. They don't play the same position, unless Dalbec's 82 minor league innings qualify him as direct competition for Chavis at 1B (which isn't likely Chavis' primary position going forward either). Dalbec being a year older and two levels behind him doesn't strike me as good incentive to rush Chavis out either.

Any talk of moving Chavis for a useful piece right now should center on factors on the big league roster. Specifically, are Moreland and/or Pearce going to be able to play regularly in August/September/October? Will Holt/Hernandez/Lin be good enough to get by at second base not just the rest of this season, but going forward as well (because trading for or signing a 2B might be cost-prohibitive given salary constraints)? Because for now, Chavis is filling a pretty important role for this team. To lose him, they need to be getting good value in return and be able to adequately fill his spot for the remainder of the season. I'm not sure they can ascertain all that info in the next two weeks (specifically the health of Moreland and Pearce), therefore I'm not sure they can afford to trade Chavis right now. Even if he's at peak value. He has more value to them as a player than a trade piece.
Oh, I was thinking of Chavis at 2B, and Dalbec replacing him there if he makes it through AAA next year. Given modern infield positioning, such a distinction seems less important than overall positional flexibility (which both Chavis and Dalbec possess). Therefore, I think it is reasonable to discuss Dalbec in the context of what is done with Chavis.
Dalbec is about a month older than Chavis, so I'm not sure the age gap matters more than years of control, making Dalbec potentially more valuable in a year or two -- perhaps sooner if he gets called up to AAA this year.

Personally, I don't think the Red Sox can afford to trade anyone off their ML roster this trading season -- they are too close to playoff competition to be sellers and too thin to make a good swap. The fact that I think he's the likeliest trade bait has more to do with how little ML trade value we really have right now.

Yes, but if we were to do so I'd like to see them getting someone else young and cost-controlled back as well. X and Sale already signed their extensions and their other young players are going to get expensive quickly as well (or leave) - in a couple years they aren't going to have much in the way of cost-controlled MLB talent so I wouldn't be particularly enamored of giving up someone like Chavis for a bullpen piece or as part of a larger trade for a more established (and thus more expensive) player.
Absolutely. In selling high, one needs to make sure that one actually gets appropriate value back :)