McCourty Resigned: 5yrs/$47.5m with $28.5m guaranteed

Super Nomario

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Kull said:
 
The fact that McCourty was converted from DB to Safety - is there perhaps some feeling within the organization that they can do it again with one of the DBs already on the roster? It's not like McCourty has some freakish size or speed that the others don't. Harmon is the obvious candidate, but they may have back-up plans involving a DB or two.
They did use Arrington and Ryan at safety a little early in the year, but we didn't see it really after that. Converting a CB is an option - Eugene Wilson was another guy. Belichick specifically compared Arrington's skill set to McCourty's.
 
You're selling McCourty a little short in terms of measurables - he's got average size, but he might be the fastest player on the team.
 

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Super Nomario said:
They did use Arrington and Ryan at safety a little early in the year, but we didn't see it really after that. Converting a CB is an option - Eugene Wilson was another guy. Belichick specifically compared Arrington's skill set to McCourty's.
 
You're selling McCourty a little short in terms of measurables - he's got average size, but he might be the fastest player on the team.
 
McCourty is a hell of a player and has really grown into the position, but if you had to choose between guys with great skill sets in key positions - thinking that this is going to come down to "either/or" involving Revis and McCourty - you can see why the organization would feel Revis is irreplaceable, but McCourty maybe not so much (at least in comparison).
 

Super Nomario

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Kull said:
 
McCourty is a hell of a player and has really grown into the position, but if you had to choose between guys with great skill sets in key positions - thinking that this is going to come down to "either/or" involving Revis and McCourty - you can see why the organization would feel Revis is irreplaceable, but McCourty maybe not so much (at least in comparison).
For sure, Revis is the better player. I was disputing the idea that McCourty is an unremarkable physical talent and that you could just move a smart, averageish corner to safety and get similar results.
 
The funny thing about the "either / or" piece of things is that McCourty and Revis complement each other well. McCourty is a really good single-high free safety, but you can only play Cover 1 if you have man-to-man corners that can hold up on the outside. Similarly, you maximize Revis' value by playing a lot of Cover 1, as it lets you put another safety in the box, but you can only do that if you have a free safety with the range to roam the deep middle. As a unit, the secondary worked well, and that had a trickle-down effect to guys like Chung and Hightower.
 

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@RyanHannable: Devin McCourty to @JosinaAnderson: "I guess it's more realistic now that (there's) a chance that I might not be back there. ..."
 

soxhop411

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@NEPD_Loyko: McCourty at the point now where he's almost openingly pleading for Patriots to make him an offer.
 

soxhop411

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@RyanHannable: Going off that, seems like McCourty wants to return to NE, just needs to get an offer/start negotiating process to do so.
 

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That Loyko series of tweets seems dumb. If they know "their number" and plan to pitch money v. legacy, why do they have to wait until another team makes an offer?
 

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MillarTime said:
That reads as if he desperately wants to be back...
 
... until he finds out that other teams desperately want him. Then, who knows
 

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Super Nomario said:
For sure, Revis is the better player. I was disputing the idea that McCourty is an unremarkable physical talent and that you could just move a smart, averageish corner to safety and get similar results.
 
The funny thing about the "either / or" piece of things is that McCourty and Revis complement each other well. McCourty is a really good single-high free safety, but you can only play Cover 1 if you have man-to-man corners that can hold up on the outside. Similarly, you maximize Revis' value by playing a lot of Cover 1, as it lets you put another safety in the box, but you can only do that if you have a free safety with the range to roam the deep middle. As a unit, the secondary worked well, and that had a trickle-down effect to guys like Chung and Hightower.
 
In this case the results might not be that much different. Considering that Revis typically doesn't require safety help, doesn't that allow McCourty (or his replacement) to cheat more toward one side than the other? Agreed that his speed is a real asset, but perhaps not one that's worth $7-8M a year, especially in this particular case. On a team with a pair of average corners, the free safety truly earns his pay. But that's not the case in a "Pats-resign-Revis" scenario.
 
So there's an element of dominos at play here. The Pats can't let both of these guys go, and may be looking at the McCourty money as the way to cover the heavy cost of Revis and still have cap space for other things.
 

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Local radio here in JAX have pretty good connections within the Jaguars organization and have been insisting he'll be a top target if he reaches FA, even more so than Cobb or o-line help.
 

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His situation may be bittersweet; he's hardly desperate.

He's going to be offered life altering money. At the age of 28 he is hardly in a position to give half of it away in the form of a hometown discount.

This could change and change quickly if something does not get done with Revis, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for his return. NFL is the League of hard choices.
 

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dcmissle said:
His situation may be bittersweet; he's hardly desperate.

He's going to be offered life altering money. At the age of 28 he is hardly in a position to give half of it away in the form of a hometown discount.

This could change and change quickly if something does not get done with Revis, but I'm not holding out a lot of hope for his return. NFL is the League of hard choices.
Yep.  I know that the following quote is generic and doesn't apply specifically to Devin McCourty, but Nick Caserio recently reminded us of what we already knew: Not all of the SB champions will be back next year (and maybe he had some of the stars like McCourty in mind when he said that):
 
On if negotiations with Patriots free agents will be on hold until the Revis situation is resolved: "We're going through an evaluation process. When we get back here from the combine, we'll actually go through pretty comprehensive analysis of our roster, go through player by player, strengths, weaknesses, what we see their role as and what their future's gonna be moving forward. Those are decisions that will be made at the appropriate time. The reality is our team is going to be different from what it was last year. That's just a reality of the NFL and a reality that every team faces. We'll go through, and in the end we'll do what we feel is best for the organization moving forward."
 
http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/caserio-our-team-going-be-different
 

Super Nomario

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Kull said:
In this case the results might not be that much different. Considering that Revis typically doesn't require safety help, doesn't that allow McCourty (or his replacement) to cheat more toward one side than the other?
Maybe in some situations, but a lot of the safety positioning is dictated by the offensive formation. I think it's overblown how much Revis is truly on an island and how much the Patriots truly double-team the other side.
 
Kull said:
Agreed that his speed is a real asset, but perhaps not one that's worth $7-8M a year, especially in this particular case. On a team with a pair of average corners, the free safety truly earns his pay. But that's not the case in a "Pats-resign-Revis" scenario.
 
So there's an element of dominos at play here. The Pats can't let both of these guys go, and may be looking at the McCourty money as the way to cover the heavy cost of Revis and still have cap space for other things.
 
I'm not sure about $7 MM - $8 MM either. But with respect to the bolded: if you were going to run Cover 1 with a pair of average corners, the free safety would deserve hazard pay, but my point is that Cover 1 is probably off the table with two average corners. You're probably going to have to play more of a zone-based concept that doesn't demand as much range from your FS if you don't have good man-to-man CBs.
 
Another factor here: both the FA safety class and the draft safety class are considered to be weak.
 

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Super Nomario said:
Maybe in some situations, but a lot of the safety positioning is dictated by the offensive formation. I think it's overblown how much Revis is truly on an island and how much the Patriots truly double-team the other side.
 
The evidence for the island lies in "number of times the opposing QB throws passes toward Revis". In the Super Bowl it was once, and that's not an outlier. So yes, formations have a lot to do with it, but if the FS knows going in to each play that he doesn't have to worry much about Revis' coverage area, I'd say that does lead to cheating, and may even skew the overall McCourty analysis since he benefitted from that knowledge all season.
 
I'm not sure about $7 MM - $8 MM either.
 
Me either. But it's projected to be a large chunk of change (even if less than the $9M tag value) and also recognizing this:
 
Another factor here: both the FA safety class and the draft safety class are considered to be weak.
 
So it does appear that market forces will likely drive a high price (more on that later).
 
if you were going to run Cover 1 with a pair of average corners, the free safety would deserve hazard pay, but my point is that Cover 1 is probably off the table with two average corners. You're probably going to have to play more of a zone-based concept that doesn't demand as much range from your FS if you don't have good man-to-man CBs.
 
That's a very interesting observation. So if a top of the line safety only shows his true value in cases where teams are running cover 1, doesn't that limit the market to teams who run currently run Cover 1? Most teams probably do have "average corners", so why pay top dollar if the impact of a high end Free Safety is just marginal?
 
But the real question is whether the Pats look at the Free Safety position the same way as other teams do. As you note, both McCourty and Eugene Wilson were converted to play this position from cornerback, and Logan Ryan played some just last season. There's a pattern here, and it isn't one that involves dedicating a big piece of the cap to what the Pats may well perceive as a fungible position.
 

Super Nomario

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Kull said:
The evidence for the island lies in "number of times the opposing QB throws passes toward Revis". In the Super Bowl it was once, and that's not an outlier. So yes, formations have a lot to do with it, but if the FS knows going in to each play that he doesn't have to worry much about Revis' coverage area, I'd say that does lead to cheating, and may even skew the overall McCourty analysis since he benefitted from that knowledge all season.
Revis was great in the Super Bowl, but that game wasn't really an example of him being "on an island." Revis spent much of the game in the slot, where he had help (both from McCourty deep and from LB in underneath zones) much of the game. That's no knock on Revis; that's just how Cover 1 works.
 
As for how much McCourty benefitted from Revis' presence, I'd argue he was just as good over the previous season-and-a-half without Revis, though he had Talib most of the time.
 
Kull said:
That's a very interesting observation. So if a top of the line safety only shows his true value in cases where teams are running cover 1, doesn't that limit the market to teams who run currently run Cover 1? Most teams probably do have "average corners", so why pay top dollar if the impact of a high end Free Safety is just marginal?
That's a good question. I'm really interested to see where his market ends up. The NFL seems to be moving towards more man-based coverage schemes (or zones with a lot of man principles, like Seattle, which isn't a lot different than Cover 1 in a lot of respects) because the best passing offenses just eat up zone, but you need a lot of pieces in place to pull that off. New Orleans learned this lesson last year after dropping big money on Jairus Byrd. Byrd got hurt, but the D wasn't working well even before that point.
 
Kull said:
 But the real question is whether the Pats look at the Free Safety position the same way as other teams do. As you note, both McCourty and Eugene Wilson were converted to play this position from cornerback, and Logan Ryan played some just last season. There's a pattern here, and it isn't one that involves dedicating a big piece of the cap to what the Pats may well perceive as a fungible position.
I agree that in the past, the Pats have often treated FS as somewhat fungible, but they also used to play a lot more zone / two-high-safety concepts where the traditional FS skill set wasn't as essential. It will be interesting to see if and how the shift to Cover 1 changes their evaluation - or whether they might move away from C1 in a post-McCourty world.
 

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E5 Yaz said:
That Loyko series of tweets seems dumb. If they know "their number" and plan to pitch money v. legacy, why do they have to wait until another team makes an offer?
 
Everything he tweets is dumb. I don't know why anyone follows him.
 
koufax32 said:
Local radio here in JAX have pretty good connections within the Jaguars organization and have been insisting he'll be a top target if he reaches FA, even more so than Cobb or o-line help.
 
It makes plenty of sense. Earl Thomas did a lot to help Bradley become a HC, and McCourty is similar to Thomas.
 

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E5 Yaz said:
That Loyko series of tweets seems dumb. If they know "their number" and plan to pitch money v. legacy, why do they have to wait until another team makes an offer?
 
Gasper elaborates on it in this morning's Globe:
 

The Revis situation is reminiscent of Randy Moss. The Patriots let Moss hit free agency after his tour de force 2007 season. He ended up returning to the Patriots on a three-year, $27 million deal, but not before he turned down more money from the Philadelphia Eagles.
 
Kraft once referred to this contract canon as brand equity — the idea players would accept less money for the opportunity to be part of the NFL’s premiere franchise.
 
http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/03/patriots-have-their-way-operating-track-record-back/zBD6DVyQVNGl3cKclSy45I/story.html
 
I'd imagine it's a situation where the agent knows where the Pats stand w/r/t their offer, while nothing formal has been proposed until the player returns from their FA visits.
 
It happened with Edelman as well, I believe.
 

dynomite

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Yes, it seems like the Patriots don't want to negotiate against a hypothetical offer. They actually want the player to know exactly what another team is offering.

Something I've been wondering: Patrick Chung returned to the Patriots and played alongside McCourty this season. I remember in training camp he essentially said he realized the "grass isn't always greener" or some such, and was thrilled to return. I wonder whether that experience could have any impact on McCourty, who seems to love it here.
 

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I love Mccourty and would love to see the Band brought back for another tour.
 
However.....he IS NOT the fastest player on the team.  He is not even the fastest DB.  So I think you are giving his measurables a bit too much credit.
 
While DM was good the 2 years previous to this he was not "one of the best in the league".
 
What changed?  Well probably Revis.
 
Thats what great players do...they make players around them  better.  I think Revis took DM from good to "One of the best in the league".

So IMHO this really comes down to (assuming that bringing both back is financially prohibitive)  Do we what Revis and "Logan Ryan" or  DM and Dennard?
 
I think Revis and "Ryan" (or Wilson or Harmon or....some other off Roster S we dont know about)  creates a better Defense then DM and "CB replacement X".
 
So do you "take the McCourty Money" and roll some/most of it into Revis?
 
I think you do.
 
Of course worse case goes without saying.....where both Revis and DM are gone.
 

TheMoralBully

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Who is faster at CB/safety that plays regularly?  He measures out as the fastest, and definitely looks the fastest on the field.  Focusing on Revis and retaining him over keeping McCourty is probably the right choice if the team is leaning that way, and this team has been the best at making these hard choices.  But losing McCourty would absolutely be a significant hit for the coming year, no reason to discredit his abilities just because he may be out the door.
 

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McCourty was a premier safety before the arrival of Revis.  They work well together in a single high safety/man-to-man scheme, but saying Revis made McCourty one of the best safeties in the league undersells McCourty.
 

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The Qualifier was not "The Fastest DB who Plays regularly"  It was
 
 
but he might be the fastest player on the team.
Which is wrong. ( I will ignore the team aspect.....as I know it was probably a throw away line)
 
I get he is good and has very good range.  But he is not the fastest player  (or even DB) on the team.  Tavon Wilson is actually faster at least on this site.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=84999&draftyear=2012&genpos=FS
 
If it makes everyone feel better I will concede that he is the "Fastest DB".
 
What I wont concede is the fact that Revis + "Avg S"  is better then "Avg CB"+McC.
 
I am saying that Revis made McC a BETTER Player.  While McC did not have that same DEGREE OF IMPACT on our avg CBs in years past
 
And thats my point.
 

TheMoralBully

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The site you just linked to has Devin McCourty better athletically in basically every thing it measures:
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=84999&draftyear=2012&genpos=FS
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=75877&draftyear=2010&genpos=CB
 
And the contention wasn't over McCourty/replacement CB being better than Revis/replacement safety, it was over "While DM was good the 2 years previous to this he was not "one of the best in the league".  I'd say he was one of the best in the league, that's all.
 

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One thing about McCourty, and forgive me if its already been mentioned, but the situation with his brother is a contrast that most players don't have. His brother, if you didn't read it, wrote this for mmqb, where he discusses winning. He clearly acknowledges that Devin is headed to free agency and does not know what the future holds. But I would think having a twin in the league that has never been to the playoffs would give you a perspective that most don't have. 
 

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bakahump said:
The Qualifier was not "The Fastest DB who Plays regularly"  It was
 
Which is wrong. ( I will ignore the team aspect.....as I know it was probably a throw away line)
 
I get he is good and has very good range.  But he is not the fastest player  (or even DB) on the team.  Tavon Wilson is actually faster at least on this site.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=84999&draftyear=2012&genpos=FS
 
If it makes everyone feel better I will concede that he is the "Fastest DB".
 
What I wont concede is the fact that Revis + "Avg S"  is better then "Avg CB"+McC.
 
I am saying that Revis made McC a BETTER Player.  While McC did not have that same DEGREE OF IMPACT on our avg CBs in years past
 
And thats my point.
 
Nobody is disagreeing with you (I think). I also don't think it's an either/or proposition. 
 

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PaulinMyrBch said:
One thing about McCourty, and forgive me if its already been mentioned, but the situation with his brother is a contrast that most players don't have. His brother, if you didn't read it, wrote this for mmqb, where he discusses winning. He clearly acknowledges that Devin is headed to free agency and does not know what the future holds. But I would think having a twin in the league that has never been to the playoffs would give you a perspective that most don't have. 
 
Not only that, but since entering the league in 2009 Jason has had three head coaches and three defensive coordinators, with LeBeau basically becoming a 4th next season.
 

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I could see the bidding for McCourty reaching the 60 million range, with AAV being 11-12 million.
 

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theapportioner said:
I could see the bidding for McCourty reaching the 60 million range, with AAV being 11-12 million.
 
Crazy money for a FS, even one that's as good as McCourty. Bring in Tyvon Branch at cheap $$$ & see if Harmon can step it up at that price. 
 

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McCourty is one of my favorite players on the team and IMO in contention for best defender on the team after Revis. Either him or Hightower.
 
Still 12m a year for a safety is insane. Safety is probably the least important defensive position, even more so if Revis stays. I think if I'm BB I offer McCourty something like 5/42.5 on a frontloaded deal with half of it guaranteed, and let him walk if he wants more.
 
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Crazy money for a FS, even one that's as good as McCourty. Bring in Tyvon Branch at cheap $$$ & see if Harmon can step it up at that price. 
I agree. I think Tyson Branch would cost half what DM will get and could likely play close to the level that McCourty showed this season (helped by the fact that he was playing with Revis) - would love to see this get done.
 

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Seels said:
McCourty is one of my favorite players on the team and IMO in contention for best defender on the team after Revis. Either him or Hightower.
 
Still 12m a year for a safety is insane. Safety is probably the least important defensive position, even more so if Revis stays. I think if I'm BB I offer McCourty something like 5/42.5 on a frontloaded deal with half of it guaranteed, and let him walk if he wants more.
 
Really? I'm not an expert but I would have thought that in this pass-heavy league, positions like interior DL and middle linebacker are less important nowadays.
 

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
I agree. I think Tyson Branch would cost half what DM will get and could likely play close to the level that McCourty showed this season (helped by the fact that he was playing with Revis) - would love to see this get done.
The pass defense was just as good statistically in 2013 as it was in 2014, so I don't think McCourty is a Revis-created wonder. As for Tyvon Branch, he's played five games total in the past two seasons. It's not at all clear what he has left in the tank.
 

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Super Nomario said:
The pass defense was just as good statistically in 2013 as it was in 2014, so I don't think McCourty is a Revis-created wonder. As for Tyvon Branch, he's played five games total in the past two seasons. It's not at all clear what he has left in the tank.
 
Yeah the Tyvon Branch talk is crazy.  He is more likely to be the next Adrian Wilson than Devin McCourty.
 
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The 2013 pass defense being just as good as the 2014 pass D "statistically" really really shows how stats can lie. The secondary D this year was significantly better than its predecessor. As for DM, I didn't intend to suggest he was a total creation of Revis. He's a very good player in his own right, and I hope he winds up back here. But as impact defensive players they are in different categories. Revis is a game changer. A transformational player. DM is a very good safety, a top safety even, but hardly a play maker, let alone a transformational player.
 

TheMoralBully

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Super Nomario said:
The pass defense was just as good statistically in 2013 as it was in 2014, so I don't think McCourty is a Revis-created wonder. As for Tyvon Branch, he's played five games total in the past two seasons. It's not at all clear what he has left in the tank.
 
You're right, the pass defense statistics are almost mirror images.  Looking at the raw stats at nfl.com and FO's rating, the pass defense was pretty damn good in 2013 and didn't really take the leap I thought it did in 2014.  Makes you wonder how much ending the Baltimore and Seattle game with defensive stands skews perception.  I'm still pretty confident the 2014 unit was better and allowed Belichick more options to gameplan, but looking over the statistical differences makes a really strong case for McCourty.
 

theapportioner

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Hmm. On Football Outsiders, the team's DVOA from 2013 to 2014 against #1 receivers (some subjective opinion goes into this definition) went from -1.9% to -15% (rank from 16 to 7). There were also improvements in DVOA against #2 receivers and other receivers. The pass defense worsened notably against tight ends however, from -1-1% to 21.6% (rank from 13 to 30).
 
Grossly, the trend against wide receivers fits my subjective impression of the Pats' defense this year, although I didn't pick up any worsening defense against tight ends.
 

Super Nomario

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theapportioner said:
Hmm. On Football Outsiders, the team's DVOA from 2013 to 2014 against #1 receivers (some subjective opinion goes into this definition) went from -1.9% to -15% (rank from 16 to 7). There were also improvements in DVOA against #2 receivers and other receivers. The pass defense worsened notably against tight ends however, from -1-1% to 21.6% (rank from 13 to 30).
 
Grossly, the trend against wide receivers fits my subjective impression of the Pats' defense this year, although I didn't pick up any worsening defense against tight ends.
The D against TEs was up-and-down. Chung generally did a good job, but Browner got torched by Martellus Bennett and Coby Fleener, and Travis Kelce and Scott Chandler also had big games. I wrote about the D against TEs here:
 
http://soshcentral.com/film-study/film-study-nfl/defense-film-study-nfl/2015/01/06/patriots-pass-defense-defending-tight-ends/
 

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PaulinMyrBch said:
One thing about McCourty, and forgive me if its already been mentioned, but the situation with his brother is a contrast that most players don't have. His brother, if you didn't read it, wrote this for mmqb, where he discusses winning. He clearly acknowledges that Devin is headed to free agency and does not know what the future holds. But I would think having a twin in the league that has never been to the playoffs would give you a perspective that most don't have. 
 
Funny--I was thinking of the same thing and if McCourty had heard from the Patriot with the cousin who was so wistful about going to the playoffs like his cousin did.
 
Totally forgot it was McCourty. I dunno if it'll move the needle, but gotta think they've talked about this.
 

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TheMoralBully said:
 
You're right, the pass defense statistics are almost mirror images.  Looking at the raw stats at nfl.com and FO's rating, the pass defense was pretty damn good in 2013 and didn't really take the leap I thought it did in 2014.  Makes you wonder how much ending the Baltimore and Seattle game with defensive stands skews perception.  I'm still pretty confident the 2014 unit was better and allowed Belichick more options to gameplan, but looking over the statistical differences makes a really strong case for McCourty.
Season-long stats might not properly capture the 2014 roster's capabilities once Browner's suspension ended.
 

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JMDurron said:
Season-long stats might not properly capture the 2014 roster's capabilities once Browner's suspension ended.
Statistically, they were actually worse post-Browner, going from 5.9 NYA to 6.4, though they faced most of the tougher offenses (Denver, Green Bay, Indy, etc.) in that span. The defense was pretty up-and-down all season: they looked great against Minnesota, Detroit, and San Diego, and pretty weak in the first Miami game, KC, the first Jets game, Green Bay, and Baltimore. Sometimes it was both - in the Super Bowl they were pretty lousy for 2.5 quarters and then allowed nothing the rest of the game.