Maybe the Red Sox are good?

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Yea, I wonder how many abs they want to get him against minor/alternate site pitching before calling him up. His ETA on Sox Prospects is late this season, but I’m no expert on that stuff. Anyone have a guess as to when they’d be willing to give him a shot?
I suspect that unless there's a long term injury to Verdugo or Hernandez (so they need a CF), we won't see Duran until late in the season. He's got some exciting tools, but needs more seasoning before he's ready for a regular gig in the big leagues.
 

shaggydog2000

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His range seems a function of his height, if that makes any sense. He should be a pretty good 1b though. He's probably a marginally better 3b than Devers (not enough to bother).
Dalbec's advanced fielding stats aren't very good, with the SSS and fielding stats needing a long time to be predictive caveats as always. He's a minus overall across his two seasons in rPM, DRS, and UZR. Those stats aren't predictive at this point, but they are accurate recordings of what has happened. Unless his bat gets real hot, I think he's just keeping that position warm until the trade deadline.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dalbec's advanced fielding stats aren't very good, with the SSS and fielding stats needing a long time to be predictive caveats as always. He's a minus overall across his two seasons in rPM, DRS, and UZR. Those stats aren't predictive at this point, but they are accurate recordings of what has happened. Unless his bat gets real hot, I think he's just keeping that position warm until the trade deadline.
Yeah, his bat determines whether he sticks or not regardless of how the glove is. I've never been that high on him making enough contact to stick. I think a lot of the walks he drew in the minors turn into strikeouts.
 

bluefenderstrat

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Of course he can, he’s never played in the majors. He may never be good enough to be an everyday player, just like most prospects.
I'd put money on Duran being able to maintain an OPS over .500 given a sufficient number of PAs, but let's hope Franchy, Renfroe, and Dalbec starting hitting homers once in a while and we can live with their 35% K rates.
 

ngruz25

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He had a limited spring training too. I'm much less worried about him. Renfroe is a flawed player, but him playing a good right field is huge for Fenway.

Luckily the positions they need to upgrade are easily upgradeable. I think that's been part of Chaim's plan too.
Cordero has barely played any baseball in the last few years. He had a truncated 2020, obviously, but he was injured for almost all of 2018 and 2019 as well. 2017 was almost a full season of baseball.

He has played some winter league ball, but the point is that it's tough to be a productive every day player when you're playing in fits and starts. Of course, the flip side is you don't want to burn out a guy who has never actually played a full season of baseball.

I guess my complaint is that I don't think he needs to be used as a strictly platoon guy. He has exactly 3 PA against lefties this season, compared to 46 against righties. You can compare that to Renfroe, who somehow has amassed 39 PA against righties and only 19 against lefties. That doesn't seem right.
 

triptych

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Verdugo: .325/.371/.538/.908, 6 2b, 3 hr, 17 r, 13 rbi, 154 ops+
Martinez: .370/.446/.753/1.199, 10 2b, 7 hr, 19 r, 21 rbi, 233 ops+
Bogaerts: .366/.402/.573/.975, 8 2b, 3 hr, 9 r, 12 rbi, 174 ops+
Devers: .269/.356/.551/.907, 4 2b, 6 hr, 14 r, 18 rbi, 153 ops+

That's a pretty impressive top-4 batters.

On the other hand...

Cordero: .200/.265/.244/.510, 2 2b, 0 hr, 4 r, 5 rbi, 47 ops+
Renfroe: .176/.241/.255/.496, 1 2b, 1 hr, 7 r, 8 rbi, 42 ops+
Dalbec: .241/.302/.345/.646, 4 2b, 0 hr, 2 r, 4 rbi, 84 ops+

That's a pretty UNimpressive bottom-3 batters.
Just how many times have we actually seen those three as the bottom third of a real lineup this year? Dalbec isn't a total loss. Minimal power, but just below average OBP. Not great, but not horrible for a number 9. Cordero and Renfroe aren't in games at the same time. So at most, one real big hole in the lineup between the two of them. With Arroyo, Hernandez, Vazquez, and Gonzalez splitting up the three remaining slots and providing pretty decent production (OPS+ of 118, 103, 96, and 95 respectively). So, comparing BOS, LAD, & SD lineup OPS+ top to bottom:

BOS LAD SD
Martinez 233 Turner 190 Tatis 171
Bogaerts 174 Neuse 170 Grisham 155
Verdugo 154 Muncy 156 Myers 142
Devers 153 Taylor 154 Hosmer 141
Arroyo 118 McKinstry 143 Machado 113
Hernandez 103 Smith 141 Cronenworth 109
Vazquez 96 Betts 127 Profar 87
Dalbec 84 Seager 125 Caratini 86
Cordero/Renfroe 47/42 Pollack 88 Mateo 66

It looks like the Dodgers have a better top to bottom lineup, especially considering the 9th in the list only would come into play in interleague at American League parks. The Bosox seem to outpace the Padres by a good bit though.
 

uncannymanny

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I'd put money on Duran being able to maintain an OPS over .500 given a sufficient number of PAs, but let's hope Franchy, Renfroe, and Dalbec starting hitting homers once in a while and we can live with their 35% K rates.
Maybe we can give those guys a sufficient number of plate appearances first. If Duran had started the season in Boston I’d take that bet all day.
 

jmcc5400

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I'd put money on Duran being able to maintain an OPS over .500 given a sufficient number of PAs, but let's hope Franchy, Renfroe, and Dalbec starting hitting homers once in a while and we can live with their 35% K rates.
Franchy, to me, seems the most messed up. His swings appear timid to me, so even his contact is weak. I agree that he would benefit from more regular at bats, but I am not sure it should be in the big leagues right now. He has one or two options left, doesn’t he?

Renfroe seems feast or famine at the plate (much more the latter), but his defense makes the trade off justifiable.

Dalbec just hasn’t had a ton of luck with his batted balls. I think the results will come for him (and I also think his defense will get better as he learns the position)
 

chawson

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Franchy, to me, seems the most messed up. His swings appear timid to me, so even his contact is weak. I agree that he would benefit from more regular at bats, but I am not sure it should be in the big leagues right now. He has one or two options left, doesn’t he?

Renfroe seems feast or famine at the plate (much more the latter), but his defense makes the trade off justifiable.

Dalbec just hasn’t had a ton of luck with his batted balls. I think the results will come for him (and I also think his defense will get better as he learns the position)
Franchy definitely looks thinky up there. With Danny Santana coming soon it may be worth using his option just to allow him to work on stuff and get his reps outside the spotlight. There’s a certain chunk of the media and fan base that are desperate for something to complain about, and there aren’t many other targets.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Of course he can, he’s never played in the majors. He may never be good enough to be an everyday player, just like most prospects.
Interestingly, O'Brien and Remy started priming this pump the other night; referring to Duran as "Major League ready."

I think with the struggling OF'ers you need to see if they can turn it around in better weather. Between Verdugo, Franchy, and Renfroe these guys are more bundled up on kinda cold days than a Mainer during a January cold snap.
 

uncannymanny

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Interestingly, O'Brien and Remy started priming this pump the other night; referring to Duran as "Major League ready."

I think with the struggling OF'ers you need to see if they can turn it around in better weather. Between Verdugo, Franchy, and Renfroe these guys are more bundled up on kinda cold days than a Mainer during a January cold snap.
He had a .634 OPS in 2019 in Portland. He hasn’t played a competitive game since AFAICT. Sounds ready to me!
 

Cesar Crespo

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He had a .634 OPS in 2019 in Portland. He hasn’t played a competitive game since AFAICT. Sounds ready to me!
Given the circumstances, this isn't really fair. These are unfamiliar waters. Are you suggesting he didn't develop at all last year because there weren't games? Do all minor leaguers have their development stalled a year?

I have my doubts on him as a prospect all together but that's another matter. I also get where you are coming from but it's not a normal year.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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He had a .634 OPS in 2019 in Portland. He hasn’t played a competitive game since AFAICT. Sounds ready to me!
.340/.367/.702 this spring.

I don't know if he's ready or not, but I definitely think it's interesting that the announcing team brought his name up, which probably isn't something they would have done if there weren't some internal rumblings.
 

uncannymanny

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Given the circumstances, this isn't really fair. These are unfamiliar waters. Are you suggesting he didn't develop at all last year because there weren't games? Do all minor leaguers have their development stalled a year?

I have my doubts on him as a prospect all together but that's another matter. I also get where you are coming from but it's not a normal year.
I suggested exactly what I wrote: he hasn’t played real games in 2 years and he didn’t light AA on fire then.

Are we giving Franchy the same benefit of the doubt? To me it sounds like idealizing all that Duran could be based on some ST stats which mean little, if anything.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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.340/.367/.702 this spring.

I don't know if he's ready or not, but I definitely think it's interesting that the announcing team brought his name up, which probably isn't something they would have done if there weren't some internal rumblings.
He also grabbed most of the headlines the previous weekend when the alternate site squad played some games against the Mets alternate squad. He's their #1 outfield prospect, so it stands to reason that when any outfielder on the big league roster falters, Duran is the name that gets brought up. I don't think that necessarily means that there are "internal rumblings" about him.

They probably want to keep Duran down and off the 40-man for service time purposes unless he absolutely forces their hand with his performance in Worcester. In the meantime, they'll plug in Wilson or Chavis (on the 40-man already) or Danny Santana (has an opt-out coming up) should a need arise. Or play Gonzalez in LF more regularly and bring up Arauz as the infield utility guy. Plenty of choices available without having to rush Duran.
 

Rovin Romine

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They probably want to keep Duran down and off the 40-man for service time purposes unless he absolutely forces their hand with his performance in Worcester.
I agree. One piece of the puzzle that should be mentioned is Duran brings base-stealing speed as well as (AFAIK) good defense. Assuming they're in contention, it might be worth it to take a look at him, even if it starts his clock ticking. If he has a Kike Hernandez level of offensive production, I think it's a no-brainer of an upgrade. Especially for post-season baseball. Also, he played 2B in college, so he has some theoretical positional versatility.
 

jmcc5400

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I'd rather have Duran learning to play centerfield every day in the minors in the hope that he develops into a plus defender, but I agree that his speed is an element this team lacks. And although the 40 man roster issue is something to negotiate, I doubt that manipulating his service time is much of a factor. He turns 25 this year and is comfortably under team control through whatever prime he may have.

Edit: Or left field!
 

grimshaw

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Can't link from here, but he has also been playing right field over the past few days as well per Chris Hatfield's twitter.
 

shaggydog2000

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I agree. One piece of the puzzle that should be mentioned is Duran brings base-stealing speed as well as (AFAIK) good defense. Assuming they're in contention, it might be worth it to take a look at him, even if it starts his clock ticking. If he has a Kike Hernandez level of offensive production, I think it's a no-brainer of an upgrade. Especially for post-season baseball. Also, he played 2B in college, so he has some theoretical positional versatility.
From what I've read on the latest updates on the various prospect sites (Fangraphs, soxprospects, Baseball America), they all agree he has the speed to have good range in the outfield, but he's still learning the position and isn't good at it yet. Also, his arm strength is borderline. So maybe if they think he can hit they'll bring him up as a corner guy, but then he really does have to hit.
 

iddoc

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When they feel Duran is ready, he should be called up to start, and the player who should lose the most at bats as a result is not Franchy, but Renfroe. The organization needs to figure out what Franchy can do in the majors, while Renfroe's relatively modest upside is well known. This isn't going to happen in the next week or two, but maybe as soon as Memorial Day. Also, and I apologize for the tangent, but Cora needs to get Quique, who has not magically turned into Brian Downing with speed, out of the leadoff spot post haste.

Verdugo
X
Devers
JDM
Franchy (leave him alone for a while and see what he can do)
Quique
Arroyo (see Franchy)
Vazquez
Dalbec (see Franchy)

When Duran comes up, he replaces Quique in the most common everyday lineup. Marwin and Quique rove around depending on matchups and who needs rest. In this scenario, and in this age of short benches, they remain very valuable, I'm not sure there is room for Renfroe in this scenario, unless they decide to drop a pitcher instead, and even then they may decide Santana (a third super-UT!) is more valuable.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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Do you know who has the same WAR (per BBREF) as Franchy? Andrew Benitendi . (0.1)

So without Franchy in the lineup, we would have... a higher paid Franchy in the lineup.
 

Rovin Romine

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From what I've read on the latest updates on the various prospect sites (Fangraphs, soxprospects, Baseball America), they all agree he has the speed to have good range in the outfield, but he's still learning the position and isn't good at it yet. Also, his arm strength is borderline. So maybe if they think he can hit they'll bring him up as a corner guy, but then he really does have to hit.
Well, for the move to make sense, just better than what we have now.
 

shaggydog2000

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Well, for the move to make sense, just better than what we have now.
Replacing the guy who sucks does make a lot of sense, I agree. But I was talking long term. If he can't play CF, the bar is a lot higher for him in terms of hitting. I'd rather make a minor trade for a corner guy and keep trying to get Duran the reps he needs at the alternate site to become a competent fielder, because then he'll have a lot more value.
 

Rovin Romine

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Replacing the guy who sucks does make a lot of sense, I agree. But I was talking long term. If he can't play CF, the bar is a lot higher for him in terms of hitting. I'd rather make a minor trade for a corner guy and keep trying to get Duran the reps he needs at the alternate site to become a competent fielder, because then he'll have a lot more value.
I'd agree. IMO, the hot start changes the calculus a bit. Clearly it's too early to decide to make a post-season push. But it should be in the back of management's mind. So maybe you call up Durran to see if you can't keep that wins lead padded for a good long while, rather than trading other assets for a piece you may already have.

A leadoff hitter with speed would be nice to see; it's one of the things the offense is lacking. Even if they're averageish in LF.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Replacing the guy who sucks does make a lot of sense, I agree. But I was talking long term. If he can't play CF, the bar is a lot higher for him in terms of hitting. I'd rather make a minor trade for a corner guy and keep trying to get Duran the reps he needs at the alternate site to become a competent fielder, because then he'll have a lot more value.
How long do you give Duran to learn the CF position? He's closing in on 25 already so should already be close to his defensive peak. On the plus side, players as fast as he is tend to age well so his peak should be longer.


Also, someone said earlier Duran hasn't played a competitive game since 2019. That's false, unless you consider the Puerto Rican leagues uncompetitive. In 23 games, he had exactly 100 PA and slashed .288/.420/.388 with 17bb/21k and was successful in all 9 of his steal attempts. Not the best info but better than nothing.

I don't think 20-30 games in AAA is going to change much but I wouldn't be too upset if he spent some time in the minors. I don't think he'll walk or hit for enough power to be an everyday player at LF or RF, and I don't think his D will ever be an asset in CF. With that said, he still might be an upgrade.

If he does hit for any sort of power (and he did in ST) he'll be plenty productive to play LF or RF and will probably be a very good player. It's easy to make the Ellsbury comparison but Ellsbury had a considerably better bb/k ratio. The power/speed profile is there. Ellsbury also had a huge defensive reputation coming out of the minors. There was some guy who tried to use advanced fielding metrics on players in the minors and Ellsbury was the posterchild. Something like +53 runs or some nonsense. Obviously Ellsbury was never that good.
 

shaggydog2000

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How long do you give Duran to learn the CF position? He's closing in on 25 already so should already be close to his defensive peak. On the plus side, players as fast as he is tend to age well so his peak should be longer.


Also, someone said earlier Duran hasn't played a competitive game since 2019. That's false, unless you consider the Puerto Rican leagues uncompetitive. In 23 games, he had exactly 100 PA and slashed .288/.420/.388 with 17bb/21k and was successful in all 9 of his steal attempts. Not the best info but better than nothing.

I don't think 20-30 games in AAA is going to change much but I wouldn't be too upset if he spent some time in the minors. I don't think he'll walk or hit for enough power to be an everyday player at LF or RF, and I don't think his D will ever be an asset in CF. With that said, he still might be an upgrade.

If he does hit for any sort of power (and he did in ST) he'll be plenty productive to play LF or RF and will probably be a very good player. It's easy to make the Ellsbury comparison but Ellsbury had a considerably better bb/k ratio. The power/speed profile is there. Ellsbury also had a huge defensive reputation coming out of the minors. There was some guy who tried to use advanced fielding metrics on players in the minors and Ellsbury was the posterchild. Something like +53 runs or some nonsense. Obviously Ellsbury was never that good.
Yeah, it's been 3 seasons where he's almost exclusively been an OF, and almost all of that in CF. If he's still not good, he's probably not getting that much better. The only hope is that it's not range that is his problem. That's what decreases after 25. He just isn't good at his routes and his jumps, which he should be able to improve. The arm I don't think you can expect to get much better than it is. His numbers in Puerto Rico are a mixed bag. The plate discipline is great, but his power disappeared again. Out of all the tools, his only consistent plus is speed, and that is pretty much the least valuable in today's game. I'm pessimistic about it being enough.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, it's been 3 seasons where he's almost exclusively been an OF, and almost all of that in CF. If he's still not good, he's probably not getting that much better. The only hope is that it's not range that is his problem. That's what decreases after 25. He just isn't good at his routes and his jumps, which he should be able to improve. The arm I don't think you can expect to get much better than it is. His numbers in Puerto Rico are a mixed bag. The plate discipline is great, but his power disappeared again. Out of all the tools, his only consistent plus is speed, and that is pretty much the least valuable in today's game. I'm pessimistic about it being enough.
Plate discipline in PR means next to nothing, iirc. I'm a bit rusty. I know it means very little in the Dominican league. Pretty much everyone walks a lot. I'd also say the power didn't disappear again as it had never appeared in games prior to ST of this year anyway. I guess in Salem he showed a little power but all of the talk about his improved power came in 2020 and in non game action. That's why I wouldn't be opposed to 20 games in AAA to see if the power is there. I don't think he's going to really improve much in AAA though. The in game power is there or it's not.
 

nvalvo

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Yeah, it's been 3 seasons where he's almost exclusively been an OF, and almost all of that in CF. If he's still not good, he's probably not getting that much better. The only hope is that it's not range that is his problem. That's what decreases after 25. He just isn't good at his routes and his jumps, which he should be able to improve. The arm I don't think you can expect to get much better than it is. His numbers in Puerto Rico are a mixed bag. The plate discipline is great, but his power disappeared again. Out of all the tools, his only consistent plus is speed, and that is pretty much the least valuable in today's game. I'm pessimistic about it being enough.
The regular season in PR wasn't great, but Caguas won so then he played in the Serie del Caribe, a tournament of the winners from the various Caribbean leagues, and the power emphatically came back. He was the MVP of that tournament, hitting .400/.500/.640 and going 3 for 3 in stolen bases.
 

shaggydog2000

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The regular season in PR wasn't great, but Caguas won so then he played in the Serie del Caribe, a tournament of the winners from the various Caribbean leagues, and the power emphatically came back. He was the MVP of that tournament, hitting .400/.500/.640 and going 3 for 3 in stolen bases.
Yeah, the numbers Cesar put up were all his at bats in PR including the series, where he hit one HR. You can choose to put emphasis on the smaller sample size part of that small sample size if you want to. Overall, the power was well below what you'd want from corner outfielder.
 

Rovin Romine

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Yeah, the numbers Cesar put up were all his at bats in PR including the series, where he hit one HR. You can choose to put emphasis on the smaller sample size part of that small sample size if you want to. Overall, the power was well below what you'd want from corner outfielder.
I think you're obsessing a tad on the power issue; you're 100% right to do so in a vacuum, but we have a good lineup core of 5 bats. Verdugo, X, Devers, DJ, Vaz.

We need a leadoff hitter in front of those guys with more than a .295 OBP. (In 2019 it was .304, and in 2020 it was .270.) Further, he's got 12 stolen bases in his MLB career.

This particular toy needs to be taken away from Cora.
 

joe dokes

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I think you're obsessing a tad on the power issue; you're 100% right to do so in a vacuum, but we have a good lineup core of 5 bats. Verdugo, X, Devers, DJ, Vaz.

We need a leadoff hitter in front of those guys with more than a .295 OBP. (In 2019 it was .304, and in 2020 it was .270.) Further, he's got 12 stolen bases in his MLB career.

This particular toy needs to be taken away from Cora.
The SBs aren't problem, considering who is hitting behind him. That many PAs with that OBP *is* a concern, though.
 

nvalvo

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Yeah, the numbers Cesar put up were all his at bats in PR including the series, where he hit one HR. You can choose to put emphasis on the smaller sample size part of that small sample size if you want to. Overall, the power was well below what you'd want from corner outfielder.
Ahh, okay.
 

shaggydog2000

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I think you're obsessing a tad on the power issue; you're 100% right to do so in a vacuum, but we have a good lineup core of 5 bats. Verdugo, X, Devers, DJ, Vaz.

We need a leadoff hitter in front of those guys with more than a .295 OBP. (In 2019 it was .304, and in 2020 it was .270.) Further, he's got 12 stolen bases in his MLB career.

This particular toy needs to be taken away from Cora.
I agree with you on the problem, I just think there are other solutions that are better than calling up a guy when there is little evidence he can actually be a major league quality player. Solutions like moving Hernandez out of the leadoff spot. He's fine as a CF, but awful in that spot in the lineup. Maybe try Arroyo for a bit? I figure not moving Verdugo into that slot is about lengthening the lineup, but he'd be good there. And once you're done trying those options, maybe Duran has had time to play some competitive AAA games and give us something to judge his progress on. In a month, we could know whether he deserves a promotion or not.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I agree with you on the problem, I just think there are other solutions that are better than calling up a guy when there is little evidence he can actually be a major league quality player. Solutions like moving Hernandez out of the leadoff spot. He's fine as a CF, but awful in that spot in the lineup. Maybe try Arroyo for a bit? I figure not moving Verdugo into that slot is about lengthening the lineup, but he'd be good there. And once you're done trying those options, maybe Duran has had time to play some competitive AAA games and give us something to judge his progress on. In a month, we could know whether he deserves a promotion or not.
Even if Duran gets called up tomorrow to be the starting centerfielder, is he immediately going to go into the lead off spot? I doubt that very much.

Not that this is indicative of anything since we're three managers and GMs removed from that season, but I can't imagine the treatment would be any different now than it was then. When Jacoby Ellsbury got his first call up, he started his first three games in the 9th spot and then one in the 7th spot before being sent back down. It wasn't until his September call up that he got some run in the leadoff spot, but even then it was only about half the time (11 in the leadoff, 1 in the #2, 10 in the 7-9 positions). Obviously he got hot and earned the leadoff spot, but he also had a stronger track record in the minors right before the call up than Duran has had even if we count his good spring training.

Duran is possibly the long term plan for CF. He's not necessarily the lead off guy, now or down the road.
 

chrisfont9

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Verdugo: .325/.371/.538/.908, 6 2b, 3 hr, 17 r, 13 rbi, 154 ops+
Martinez: .370/.446/.753/1.199, 10 2b, 7 hr, 19 r, 21 rbi, 233 ops+
Bogaerts: .366/.402/.573/.975, 8 2b, 3 hr, 9 r, 12 rbi, 174 ops+
Devers: .269/.356/.551/.907, 4 2b, 6 hr, 14 r, 18 rbi, 153 ops+

That's a pretty impressive top-4 batters.

On the other hand...

Cordero: .200/.265/.244/.510, 2 2b, 0 hr, 4 r, 5 rbi, 47 ops+
Renfroe: .176/.241/.255/.496, 1 2b, 1 hr, 7 r, 8 rbi, 42 ops+
Dalbec: .241/.302/.345/.646, 4 2b, 0 hr, 2 r, 4 rbi, 84 ops+

That's a pretty UNimpressive bottom-3 batters.
The two sets of numbers are interrelated, in that the top 4 guys can take the pressure off Cora and the bottom 3, who can be afforded a longer leash since they are scoring decent run totals regardless. Red Sox are tops in team OPS (.794), with only 10 other teams over .700. All three, for different reasons, need more time to work things out, and the Sox will be better off if they can get even one of them going.
 

scottyno

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Hernandez has been great so far this year, with above-average defense and above-average hitting at a premium position for a pretty low salary, calling up Duran right now is a solution to something that isn't a problem.

Verdugo: .325/.371/.538/.908, 6 2b, 3 hr, 17 r, 13 rbi, 154 ops+
Martinez: .370/.446/.753/1.199, 10 2b, 7 hr, 19 r, 21 rbi, 233 ops+
Bogaerts: .366/.402/.573/.975, 8 2b, 3 hr, 9 r, 12 rbi, 174 ops+
Devers: .269/.356/.551/.907, 4 2b, 6 hr, 14 r, 18 rbi, 153 ops+

That's a pretty impressive top-4 batters.

On the other hand...

Cordero: .200/.265/.244/.510, 2 2b, 0 hr, 4 r, 5 rbi, 47 ops+
Renfroe: .176/.241/.255/.496, 1 2b, 1 hr, 7 r, 8 rbi, 42 ops+
Dalbec: .241/.302/.345/.646, 4 2b, 0 hr, 2 r, 4 rbi, 84 ops+

That's a pretty UNimpressive bottom-3 batters.
That bottom 3 sucks, but they also can easily get away with only starting 1 of those at a time, so it's not really that bad. It's early, but their ideal lineup would have 8 guys with a 95 or higher ops+, which is pretty insane.
 

SumnerH

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Hernandez has been great so far this year, with above-average defense and above-average hitting
Hernández hasn't really had above-average hitting. He's had a 0 Rbat per baseball-reference (positive is above average, negative is below average), 101 wRC+ per FanGraphs (100 is average). Even plain OPS+, which overrates slugging and underrates OBP, has him at 103 (essentially average).

Fielding's tough to evaluate, but both UZR (-0.9) and Total Zone (-3 runs) have him as a net-negative so far this year. Both have him basically average or slightly better in the infield and sub-par in the outfield due to limited range.

Given his flexibility and the fact that essentially average performance isn't easy to replicate on the cheap (and is generally a fair bit above replacement level), he's been fine. But it's a real stretch to say he's been great.

He's certainly an obvious place to look for upgrades once the team thinks a replacement might be ready. But he's good enough that there's no reason to force it.
 

shaggydog2000

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Even if Duran gets called up tomorrow to be the starting centerfielder, is he immediately going to go into the lead off spot? I doubt that very much.

Not that this is indicative of anything since we're three managers and GMs removed from that season, but I can't imagine the treatment would be any different now than it was then. When Jacoby Ellsbury got his first call up, he started his first three games in the 9th spot and then one in the 7th spot before being sent back down. It wasn't until his September call up that he got some run in the leadoff spot, but even then it was only about half the time (11 in the leadoff, 1 in the #2, 10 in the 7-9 positions). Obviously he got hot and earned the leadoff spot, but he also had a stronger track record in the minors right before the call up than Duran has had even if we count his good spring training.

Duran is possibly the long term plan for CF. He's not necessarily the lead off guy, now or down the road.
I agree completely.
 

scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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Hernández hasn't really had above-average hitting. He's had a 0 Rbat per baseball-reference (positive is above average, negative is below average), 101 wRC+ per FanGraphs (100 is average). Even plain OPS+, which overrates slugging and underrates OBP, has him at 103 (essentially average).

Fielding's tough to evaluate, but both UZR (-0.9) and Total Zone (-3 runs) have him as a net-negative so far this year. Both have him basically average or slightly better in the infield and sub-par in the outfield due to limited range.

Given his flexibility and the fact that essentially average performance isn't easy to replicate on the cheap (and is generally a fair bit above replacement level), he's been fine. But it's a real stretch to say he's been great.

He's certainly an obvious place to look for upgrades once the team thinks a replacement might be ready. But he's good enough that there's no reason to force it.
Based on DRS he's been slightly positive at both 2nd and CF, and 101 and 103 are still above average albeit not by much, but when you factor in position a CF/2b that hits slightly above average is a pretty useful hitter. His WARs are pretty different right now, probably based on defense, but bref has him at .7 war which wouldn't be too far from all star caliber, and fg has him at .3 which is still more than fine for what he's being paid.
 

joe dokes

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Based on DRS he's been slightly positive at both 2nd and CF, and 101 and 103 are still above average albeit not by much, but when you factor in position a CF/2b that hits slightly above average is a pretty useful hitter. His WARs are pretty different right now, probably based on defense, but bref has him at .7 war which wouldn't be too far from all star caliber, and fg has him at .3 which is still more than fine for what he's being paid.
Not sure how it would be quantified, but I'd think that roughly average at two significant defensive positions is pretty valuable in itself.
 

voidfunkt

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Apr 14, 2006
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So maybe this team is good? Pitching stepped up nicely today on a day when everyone knew the offense was going to have it hard.
 

jmcc5400

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Three game winning streak with the bats doing next to nothing. I think they come alive in Texas. Marwin’s hit some rockets lately that have found gloves. I have a feeling he breaks out this weekend.
 

LesterFan

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Glasnow, Maeda, Berrios, Giolito, Ryu, deGrom.

Sox have won games in which those have been the opposing starters. Some of the better AL starters and 3 top 10-15 starters in all of baseball, including the best. A lot of it has to do with the mostly quality starting pitching they've been getting. A big change from last season's disastrous starters and openers.