Jeez - if we are talking redrafting, Philly should be looking at trading DOWN and picking up PG Dennis Smith Jr. from NC St.It's an interesting question whether the Sixers should have taken Ball. I think that if he didn't have issues around his shot, the answer would have been yes.
Tatum, Embiid, and Simmons would be utterly terrifying in 2 years, if healthy.Jeez - if we are talking redrafting, Philly should be looking at trading DOWN and picking up PG Dennis Smith Jr. from NC St.
ha, this is some quality workJeez - if we are talking redrafting, Philly should be looking at trading DOWN and picking up PG Dennis Smith Jr. from NC St.
Personally, I would pass on Ball and his entire self-aggrandizing, Kardashianesque family. LA deserves Lonzo. And Lavar. And LaCriminal. And LaHomeSchooled. And the LaStank drama that follows them everywhere.
Philly fan would have a very short fuse for their crap.
True, but if I'm Danny, I take Tatum #1 overall and don't look back. LA takes Lala and the Sixers have to work from #3.Tatum, Embiid, and Simmons would be utterly terrifying in 2 years, if healthy.
Then why trade the pick to move up!True, but if I'm Danny, I take Tatum #1 overall and don't look back. LA takes Lala and the Sixers have to work from #3.
I think his better chance is injury. I agree that Ball will likely pit up enough numbers that someone will give him more than $10MM AAV.He'd have to be a serious bust. 10m AAV aint what it used to be and it will be even less in 2021.
Honestly, Covington has been Tatum plus so far and those three beat the Clippers last night with literally everyone else building a brick shithouse.Tatum, Embiid, and Simmons would be utterly terrifying in 2 years, if healthy.
Not really, no. The 19 year old Tatum is already better, defensively, than the seven and a half year older player in his fifth year. Covington has been a slightly better scorer, but the offensive difference is not the huge margin that you're trying to imply given that Covington is strictly a Jae Crowder type (albeit longer and bouncier).Honestly, Covington has been Tatum plus so far ...
I'm loving what I've seen from Tatum, but this is a stretch. Covington was 4th overall in DRPM last year, behind only Gobert, Draymond and Bogut. He grades out decently this year as well, though his lofty overall RPM early on is inflated by his ORPM, which will regress with his shooting. His length really allows him to disrupt passing lanes- he gets a ton of deflections.Not really, no. The 19 year old Tatum is already better, defensively, than the seven and a half year older player in his fifth year. Covington has been a slightly better scorer, but the offensive difference is not the huge margin that you're trying to imply given that Covington is strictly a Jae Crowder type (albeit longer and bouncier).
Given the age gap Covington is as good as he's ever going to get. I'll wager that Tatum closes a good portion of the scoring gap by year's end, while continuing to improve all the other areas of his game.
Depends what defensive metric you are using. It's close.I'm loving what I've seen from Tatum, but this is a stretch. Covington was 4th overall in DRPM last year, behind only Gobert, Draymond and Bogut. He grades out decently this year as well, though his lofty overall RPM early on is inflated by his ORPM, which will regress with his shooting. His length really allows him to disrupt passing lanes- he gets a ton of deflections.
I don't know that any metric is going to give much of answer to this given that it'll be looking at 14 games total for Tatum. I've certainly been very encouraged. But Covington, at least by multi-year DRPM, is an elite perimeter defender.Depends what defensive metric you are using. It's close.
You should compare their DBPMs this year. Covington’s has declined due to Philly asking more of him on the offensive end this year (and this shouldn’t surprise you, Jae Crowder’s performance mirrored that last year). Maybe Philly will get another scorer and Covington can re-focus his energy on defense, but he still looks like a high functioning roleplayer that’s sacrificing one part of his game for another.I'm loving what I've seen from Tatum, but this is a stretch. Covington was 4th overall in DRPM last year, behind only Gobert, Draymond and Bogut. He grades out decently this year as well, though his lofty overall RPM early on is inflated by his ORPM, which will regress with his shooting. His length really allows him to disrupt passing lanes- he gets a ton of deflections.
What is Philly asking Covington to do on the offensive now? His usage is at a career low. He's putting up points now because's getting better looks and is shooting better, but he's still not handling much offensive load.You should compare their DRPMs this year. Covington’s has declined due to Philly asking more of him on the offensive end this year (and this shouldn’t surprise you, Jae Crowder’s performance mirrored that last year). Maybe Philly will get another scorer and Covington can re-focus his energy on defense, but he still looks like a high functioning roleplayer that’s sacrificing one part of his game for another.
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2017/11/15/brett-brown-markelle-fultz-please/“We spend so much time under the constrictions that we have with making sure his head is right, his body is right, getting him to sweat with his cardio,” said Brown. “Still working on his skills that don’t affect his shot. The problem is the shoulder, the problem is the shot. So all of things that you just heard me say, are things that avoid that. And slowly we’re getting his shoulder stronger, we’re getting him more confident. What the endgame is, what the return to play is we do not know. But I can say with sort of great confidence — and we’ve had a lot practice dealing with injured high draft picks — that the plan that he’s on is very comprehensive and thorough. From diet, to study, to Jon Gruden quarterback camp with me and him sitting in a video room talking about stuff. Sitting him up the bench. When you watch our games, you’ll notice where he sits, we can communicate with him.
“And he’s just very involved, although not in a uniform on game night, he’s moving forward. And I think the city is gonna realize soon, once that happens, what a unique player we actually have. He’s been an enigma so far, but I just feel — I’ve got a gut feel and study feel that he’s just gonna please lots of people, in regards to us drafting him.”
Covington's FGA/g are at a career high this year and per B-ref Tatum's DBPM is three and a half times Covington's (2.6 for Tatum to .7 for Covington).What is Philly asking Covington to do on the offensive now? His usage is at a career low. He's putting up points now because's getting better looks and is shooting better, but he's still not handling much offensive load.
Also, I'm not sure what you're citing DRPM for? It supports that Covington is better than Tatum defensively, so I don't follow your point.
DRPM, DBPM.Covington's FGA/g are at a career high this year and per B-ref Tatum's DBPM is three and a half times Covington's (2.6 for Tatum to .7 for Covington).
The FGA per game are up because Philly is playing at a faster pace, not because they're asking Covington to do more on offense. He's taken 18.1 field goals per 100 possessions over his career vs. 16.9 this year. Usage is even lower.Covington's FGA/g are at a career high this year and per B-ref Tatum's DBPM is three and a half times Covington's (2.6 for Tatum to .7 for Covington).
I infer that RPM tells the opposite story here for Covington and Tatum. Is that a sample size thing, or can the difference be that large? If the latter, BPM doesn't seem to be much of an approximation then.The FGA per game are up because Philly is playing at a faster pace, not because they're asking Covington to do more on offense. He's taken 18.1 field goals per 100 possessions over his career vs. 16.9 this year. Usage is even lower.
BPM is a fine substitute when RAPM/RPM is not available, but there's not much reason to use it, especially defensively, when RPM is available. It's literally just a box-score attempt to approximate RAPM.
There's a few things going on here, but the biggest issue is that BPM only has access to box-score stats (e.g., rebounding, steals, and blocks), and team defensive rating. To the extent a team's defensive performance can't be explained using box-score stats, BPM adds a team adjustment onto players from that team to get it to fit the team defensive rating. This adjustment is normally pretty small, since most defense can be explained using box-score stats. However, the Celtics currently have a historically great defense, but have essentially average box-score stats, so the team adjustment is huge for Boston right now (+2.8 dBPM per player).I infer that RPM tells the opposite story here for Covington and Tatum. Is that a sample size thing, or can the difference be that large? If the latter, BPM doesn't seem to be much of an approximation then.
Thanks for that. FWIW, something that Stevens said last night really stood out to me. Yes, the Warriors missed more open shots at the end of the game than expected. But, in his words, the Celtics "guarded them hard all night" and he supposed that such effort over time wears people down. I suspect that longer guys discouraging penetration, clogging passing lanes, and contesting shots all night slows down an offense, resulting in lower percentage shots. That won't show up in box score numbers.There's a few things going on here, but the biggest issue is that BPM only has access to box-score stats (e.g., rebounding, steals, and blocks), and team defensive rating. To the extent a team's defensive performance can't be explained using box-score stats, BPM adds a team adjustment onto players from that team to get it to fit the team defensive rating. This adjustment is normally pretty small, since most defense can be explained using box-score stats. However, the Celtics currently have a historically great defense, but have essentially average box-score stats, so the team adjustment is huge for Boston right now (+2.8 dBPM per player).
In general however, there are always going to be some players whose defensive contribution cannot be captured with even the most sophisticated box-score metrics. For those players, you're correct BPM is just not a great approximation. The concept behind BPM is that hopefully there aren't very many of those players (the overall R^2 between dBPM and dRAPM is pretty strong), but they do exist certainly. The Celtics currently present a unique challenge in that it's a large teamwide gap however. It's a fair bet that the gap will shrink over time, but the Celtics defense may also somewhat continue to flummox box-score stats.
This part of Brown's quote is so weird to me, particularly the bolded: "We spend so much time under the constrictions that we have with making sure his head is right, his body is right, getting him to sweat with his cardio,” said Brown. “Still working on his skills that don’t affect his shot. The problem is the shoulder, the problem is the shot. So all of things that you just heard me say, are things that avoid that. And slowly we’re getting his shoulder stronger, we’re getting him more confident. What the endgame is, what the return to play is we do not know."Brown provides an update on Fultz, though no time table for a return (I believe earlier reports had him getting reevaluated this week):
https://www.libertyballers.com/2017/11/30/16718798/markelle-fultz-is-rehabbing-in-kentucky-sixers-washington-76ers-philadelphia-processPompey reports that Fultz will remain in Kentucky to do physical therapy for a couple of days before returning to Philadelphia, and then going back to Kentucky again “in the next week or two” for a re-evaluation.
Markelle Fultz is back from Kentucky and with the Sixers. Brett Brown said his basketball activity was "minimal" on Wednesday. "We are just happy to have him back. I felt like I haven't seen him in a long time," Brown said.
http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/21719655/philadelphia-76ers-guard-markelle-fultz-no-longer-experiencing-shoulder-soreness-re-evaluated-three-weeksPhiladelphia 76ers rookie guard Markelle Fultz is no longer experiencing shoulder soreness and will be evaluated in three weeks, the team said Saturday.
The Sixers said Fultz will ramp up his basketball activities in the interim.
Amico reported a while back that Fultz was in Kentucky at The Shoulder Center working on rehab under the guidance of a surgeon there. Rehabbing a shoulder is often the preferred method over surgery so this isn't surprising. I mean, it would have to be one big conspiracy now with multiple agencies involved for this to only be mental.So he has a shoulder injury that requires no surgery and no longer hurts but his basketball activities are minimal. And he's been in Kentucky for some reason.
He's completely shook. It's mental.
The team statement says he's in no pain and the imbalance has been resolved. So why three more weeks to reevaluate?Amico reported a while back that Fultz was in Kentucky at The Shoulder Center working on rehab under the guidance of a surgeon there. Rehabbing a shoulder is often the preferred method over surgery so this isn't surprising. I mean, it would have to be one big conspiracy now with multiple agencies involved for this to only be mental.
I've been on the yip boat from day one but claiming at this point with the information we now have that there is no shoulder problem is kinda silly. Do you feel that The Lexington Clinic, The Shoulder Center, and a nationally acclaimed shoulder surgeon in Ben Kibler are being paid to be a part of this conspiracy or would they be doing so pro bono?The team statement says he's in no pain and the imbalance has been resolved. So why three more weeks to reevaluate?
It's not a physical issue. Whether he's working with a psychologist or they're retooling his shot, this is not normal.
The team statement says he is in no pain and has no soreness and the shoulder imbalance has been resolved.I've been on the yip boat from day one but claiming at this point with the information we now have that there is no shoulder problem is kinda silly. Do you feel that The Lexington Clinic, The Shoulder Center, and a nationally acclaimed shoulder surgeon in Ben Kibler are being paid to be a part of this conspiracy or would they be doing so pro bono?
I don't think that this is that uncommon. No one ever claimed that this was a structural problem with the shoulder, just a strain of some sort. He does seem to have a case of the yips, and I'm forever grateful that this is Philly's cross to bear, but I'm not doubting the reality of the shoulder problems.The team statement says he is in no pain and has no soreness and the shoulder imbalance has been resolved.
Nor am I necessarily. But the team is now saying those problems are gone.I don't think that this is that uncommon. No one ever claimed that this was a structural problem with the shoulder, just a strain of some sort. He does seem to have a case of the yips, and I'm forever grateful that this is Philly's cross to bear, but I'm not doubting the reality of the shoulder problems.
Tatum is better and will continue to be better than Covington. Thanks to your fraud team for losing to LAL.I assume this is nighthob arguing that Tatum is better than Covington now?
Look Covington has been sensational this year, he is 5th in RPM 6th in win shares and he's 17th in DRPM down from 4th last year (and was 4th in DPOY last year)
The lineup of Covington, Simmons, embiid, redick and saric is the best +/- starting lineup in the league.
It is in no way insulting to Tatum to say Covington has been better. He's the perfect 3&d wing and can play 2-4.
Correct......which is why he's now back with the team. In a couple weeks after working on getting his conditioning back, increasing the workload for his shoulder, and participating in some practices/scrimmages with the team he'll be back on the court. What part are you disagreeing with about the 76ers reasonable timeline?The team statement says he is in no pain and has no soreness and the shoulder imbalance has been resolved.
What's one got to do with the other?Tatum is better and will continue to be better than Covington. Thanks to your fraud team for losing to LAL.
The Sixers are finally handling an injury appropriately and they are still being killed for it. Those guys can't ever win.I find the idea of a 19 year-old who's missed six weeks with a non-debilitating shoulder injury needing at least three weeks to "get his conditioning back" patently absurd.
Tatum will be better one day and could be right now.What's one got to do with the other?
He may be better one day he isn't now.
And secondly go take a long walk off a short pier.
He's not now, and will be is a moronic comment. You never knowTatum will be better one day and could be right now.
Yes. One guy is a 27-year old 3&D player in the midst of what appears to be a career year. Valuable, yes, but not in Tatum's league either now or going forward.Tatum is better now.