Not saying you should conjure up trade proposals but the get it done, I don’t care how position, to me, kind of ignores some of the dynamics and situations of other teams around the league.
Lucas Giolito signs 2 year, 38.5M contract with Red Sox (opt-out after 1 year, potential 3rd year option)
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Sure, but we're trying to determine if it's a good deal. Every deal is "what it took to make it happen" I think it's a bad deal because you're both paying market or higher for a pitcher who hasn't been good And you're taking on downside of a second year player option. Your best case is likely that it becomes a mediocre value 1 year deal with plenty of downside that it's a bad 2 year deal. If you're paying market for pitchers you want to have better upside than that. I just don't see Giolito as a guy who you want on that deal over either a straight one year or multi-year deal with someone else. You're eliminating most of top end potential value while taking on 100% of the downsides performance risk.
The top end potential value is pretty high. If he's good enough to opt out despite a QO, you get one great season from him worth more than you paid, and either a pick or the inside line on a longer contract. If he stays mediocre, you get his innings for two years, and financially whether those cost $19m or $13m doesn't really affect the team; they just reset this year and have more than enough space to operate under CBT+40. The "good deal" part of this is they took a huge step toward fixing the starting innings problem that has been killing them for two years.
Or what does a "winning" contract look like for the Sox? $15mm at best (and prolly not that low)? And they agreed to 18mm. Seems like a reasonable (if at all) overpay to lock in a guy they want. To me the contract seems fair. Yup some downside to him pitching poorly and opting in... but imo fair.
Then you can't look at it in isolation. You have to consider the team's strengths, weaknesses, and needs. You have to consider that signing Giolito enables them to flip Sale for Grissom.
Exactly. The inclusion of a guy who will give you potentially 180 IP this season allowed the departure of the guy labeled as being "made of glass" and an all time extension failure and brought back young, cost controlled talent.
Because if he turns it around and has a great year, he can make more money. The Sox can always extend him. Without the opt-out, he likely waits and signs elsewhere for more guaranteed money.
Where did I say “I don’t care how”?
What frustrates me is people who claim there has been nothing that could have been done to improve [insert position here].
In this thread there have been a few posts that already crossed off acquiring any “top” SPs. It’s December 30th, I’m not going to concede such a thing.
Did anyone here foresee today’s Sale deal? Things can be done. Smart GMs can execute creative solutions.
The latest SP podcast mentioned discord between Cora and E-Rod and there was this incident too. Not sure this would have been why ERod wouldn’t have considered Boston?
https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/10/19/mastrodonato-alex-cora-hated-eduardo-rodriguezs-taunting-of-carlos-correa-but-that-doesnt-mean-it-was-wrong/amp/
Wouldn't there be a QO attached in this scenario? If he does very well and is at all comfortable with the whole Boston thing, the Sox would be the favorites to bring him back.
[QUOTE="cannonball 1729, post: 5909462, member: 11079"
For what it's worth, I think the "Moneyball" of the current era is starter innings, especially since MLB tweaked the rules about how many times a player can be demoted/promoted over the course of a season. A starter who can throw 180 innings of competent baseball is a very valuable player, even if he's not an ace-type pitcher; his innings have the major downstream effect of not overtaxing the bullpen. I think that a lot of teams followed the Rays into the "opener/bulk" model, which worked when spider tack and infield shifts shortened innings and an endless stream of relievers could ride the AAA bus all season, but since all of those three have since been legislated away, the game is starting to value innings more.
[/QUOTE]
This is a great point. It’s been made by others, but you state it in a way that really resonates. The Orioles example is excellent.
It makes me wonder if this is part of why a pitcher like JM is so highly valued by his agent in this years market. Maybe innings pitched is the lead fact in the pitch to sell the client to the prospective team.
For what it's worth, I think the "Moneyball" of the current era is starter innings, especially since MLB tweaked the rules about how many times a player can be demoted/promoted over the course of a season. A starter who can throw 180 innings of competent baseball is a very valuable player, even if he's not an ace-type pitcher; his innings have the major downstream effect of not overtaxing the bullpen. I think that a lot of teams followed the Rays into the "opener/bulk" model, which worked when spider tack and infield shifts shortened innings and an endless stream of relievers could ride the AAA bus all season, but since all of those three have since been legislated away, the game is starting to value innings more.
[/QUOTE]
This is a great point. It’s been made by others, but you state it in a way that really resonates. The Orioles example is excellent.
It makes me wonder if this is part of why a pitcher like JM is so highly valued by his agent in this years market. Maybe innings pitched is the lead fact in the pitch to sell the client to the prospective team.
I had not heard this, but would make the path much more understandable as Erod signed for a very reasonable deal.
Heard the same thing as @chawson on the Sox prospects podcast (which I’m assuming 100% of this thread listens to ?). I was struck by how definitive they sounded and it’s not like I’m listening in for their hot takez.
I listen to it quite a bit, IC seems pretty sure about his own opinions, and there was no question that he didn’t think the Sox were going to get ERod back, like, at all because of some Cora rift. Another take away for me was that there is NO WAY Seattle is trading their controlled SP. So I guess that we shall see.
It's official now. Giolito signed and Llovera designated for assignment to clear roster space.
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1742624848264695947
View: https://twitter.com/RedSox/status/1742624848264695947
Happy trails to Mauricio "The Love Doctor" Llovera. His stuff played, but man did he have a tough time throwing strikes. He definitely had to wear a few tough outings down the stretch last year when the 'pen was gassed.
I guess it amounts to the same thing, but the initial reports were of a two-year deal with an opt-out, while the official Red Sox announcement is for a one-year deal with a player option. A different emphasis and maybe not worth noticing, but it caught my eye.
To be fair, more excerpts from his interview paint a more optimistic picture (from Giolito's pov).
"For me, I really was sold on the Red Sox philosophy, talking with (manager Alex Cora), talking with (pitching coach) Andrew Bailey, talking with (chief baseball officer) Craig (Breslow). That initial meeting really got me excited. A lot of my free agency process was tailored to working towards getting something done here.”
Sox apparently reached out to him early: “That obviously meant a lot to me,” he said. “It’s my first time going through free agency. Obviously, there’s a lot of unknown coming off of last season. We had a really interesting, amazing Zoom call, like a pitch meeting, where I got to get a feel for the organization, got to meet some of the staff and I really liked everything I heard.”
More on his feel for the organization: “Because I’m coming off a down season and the year before that was a down season too, for me, committing to a big long-term deal at a value that I don’t necessarily see myself at or not really having interest from teams in that type of deal, it didn’t really make sense,” Giolito said. “What makes sense for me is going somewhere where I know I’m going to be comfortable and I know I’m going to get better.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/why-lucas-giolito-chose-1-year-red-sox-deal-after-market-wasnt-crazy-for-him.html
In a surprise to nobody, the context of the interview is a heck of a lot different than a headline and a tweet convey.
"For me, I really was sold on the Red Sox philosophy, talking with (manager Alex Cora), talking with (pitching coach) Andrew Bailey, talking with (chief baseball officer) Craig (Breslow). That initial meeting really got me excited. A lot of my free agency process was tailored to working towards getting something done here.”
Sox apparently reached out to him early: “That obviously meant a lot to me,” he said. “It’s my first time going through free agency. Obviously, there’s a lot of unknown coming off of last season. We had a really interesting, amazing Zoom call, like a pitch meeting, where I got to get a feel for the organization, got to meet some of the staff and I really liked everything I heard.”
More on his feel for the organization: “Because I’m coming off a down season and the year before that was a down season too, for me, committing to a big long-term deal at a value that I don’t necessarily see myself at or not really having interest from teams in that type of deal, it didn’t really make sense,” Giolito said. “What makes sense for me is going somewhere where I know I’m going to be comfortable and I know I’m going to get better.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/01/why-lucas-giolito-chose-1-year-red-sox-deal-after-market-wasnt-crazy-for-him.html
In a surprise to nobody, the context of the interview is a heck of a lot different than a headline and a tweet convey.
They should (and probably did).
They're depending on Sale to be SP4 or maybe SP5 (Strider, Fried, Morton, Elder, Sale) and they have AJ Smith Shawver ready to go. They're also basically a lock for the post-season.
The two pitching staffs are at markedly different places.
This Athletic article says much the same thing as the quotes @Big Papi's Mango Salsa provided above, but here are a couple additional quotes (sorry, have not read the masslive link; these may have been said there, too):
https://theathletic.com/5177920/2024/01/04/lucas-giolito-bounce-back-boston-red-sox?source=user-shared-article
Talks about getting into mechanical and mental funks last season, and is already working to correct that. The last sentence should be music to Sox fans' ears:
“This offseason I’ve been really getting back to the basics when it comes to my work leading up to the next season getting my mechanics tightened back up, repeating my delivery and getting prepared to go out and try to throw as many quality innings as possible. That’s truly what I believe is the most important thing to do as a starting pitcher is give your team a ton of quality innings.”
Said Red Sox were the first team to reach out to him.
"I feel like it’s just a great fit for me, what I’m trying to do, get back to the type of pitcher I know I can be. I’m a huge fan of Andrew Bailey, the new pitching coach. I’ve had wonderful conversations with him over the last couple of weeks. And then kind of on top of it all, Boston Red Sox, storied franchise, Fenway Park. Not much to complain about there.”
Giolito sounds like a thoughtful and introspective guy, and he'll be coming in excited and motivated. It will be fun to see what Bailey et al can do for him.
https://theathletic.com/5177920/2024/01/04/lucas-giolito-bounce-back-boston-red-sox?source=user-shared-article
Talks about getting into mechanical and mental funks last season, and is already working to correct that. The last sentence should be music to Sox fans' ears:
“This offseason I’ve been really getting back to the basics when it comes to my work leading up to the next season getting my mechanics tightened back up, repeating my delivery and getting prepared to go out and try to throw as many quality innings as possible. That’s truly what I believe is the most important thing to do as a starting pitcher is give your team a ton of quality innings.”
Said Red Sox were the first team to reach out to him.
"I feel like it’s just a great fit for me, what I’m trying to do, get back to the type of pitcher I know I can be. I’m a huge fan of Andrew Bailey, the new pitching coach. I’ve had wonderful conversations with him over the last couple of weeks. And then kind of on top of it all, Boston Red Sox, storied franchise, Fenway Park. Not much to complain about there.”
Giolito sounds like a thoughtful and introspective guy, and he'll be coming in excited and motivated. It will be fun to see what Bailey et al can do for him.
Cross-posting from the rumors thread. This article does a pitch-by-pitch breakdown of a few Giolito starts from last season. Really interesting stuff. The writer's conclusions are that he really struggled with command at times (which, like, duh) and that he could benefit from adding a cutter (which sounds exactly like the type of thing Andrew Bailey and CB should be thinking about):
The Anatomy of an Inning: Introducing Lucas Giolito
The Anatomy of an Inning: Introducing Lucas Giolito
https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/carrabisredsox?selected=DFT4874363577
Jared Carrabis has a 2 hour podcast (released today) where he interviews Lucas Giolito! (Interview is the first hour)
Jared Carrabis has a 2 hour podcast (released today) where he interviews Lucas Giolito! (Interview is the first hour)
Great listen. He was very open about his pitching struggles in the second half and the adjustments he needs to work on. Around the 26th minute Giolito said that in the Sox's first meeting with him, Breslow and Bailey "showed me some stuff that was so eye-opening that even before I signed with the team, I started working on it."
Yup. Video version of the podcast also just went up so you can see some of the things he talks about
View: https://youtu.be/F63Mj3gc2X0?si=UX6piztxjb3IHQI5
I so, so, so want there to be a special pitching sauce that Breslow and Bailey have brought here. Really looking forward to seeing how they work with some of the guys in our existing stable.
I have a lot of belief in Andrew Bailey. The performance of the pitching staff relative to their general quality was very impressive. It's difficult to give him all of the credit but there are some encouraging performance indicators.
rank by year xFIP:
2023 - 2nd 3.86
2022 - 4th 3.63
2021 - 4th 3.87
Under his watch we saw Logan Webb blossom from a relatively poor first 100 big league innings into a perennial 4 win stud. Kevin Gausman wasnt Kevin Gausman before Andrew Bailey got his hands on him. He put up 4.8 WAR in his first year with Bailey, his best year by far, and has been over 5 and a CY Young candidate since. The leap Jacob Junis took in San Fran is remarkable. It's hard to give him credit for Rodon because the leap happened first in Chicago but the best season of his career by a mile happened under Bailey's watch.
I don't think he has magic in him that can create something out of nothing, but there's enough smoke there that his approach help pitchers maximize their potential. I expect it will give tantalizing players like Houck, Whitlock, and Bello a chance to make a leap if they are able to similarly affected. I even have hope that he can help Pivetta keep the gains he found at driveline.
We can lament the lack of talent in the rotation all day, but I think the additions of Willard and Bailey are going to make a sizeable difference to the performance of our pitching staff. If we had a staff xFIP in the mid-high 3's, this team is a wild card team, even after all the negativity of this offseason. I think thats a 95th percentile outcome but its possible. This will be one of the more interesting things to watch with the Red Sox this summer.
I'd bet Bailey and Willard finally get that third pitch out of Houck.
Carrabis dropped a Name Redacted pod interviewing Lucas and its very much the highlight of the offseason so far. It's incredibly bullish on Breslow and Bailey. He called them "incredible" and the amount of info they gave him in just the first meeting was unbelievable.
I do think we will see across the board improvement with the staff.
Get that you can't force the player to sign things and on and on, so noted...
I was really hoping there would have been something built into the contract such as Gilito has the option to opt out after year 1; Red Sox have the option to negate the opt out by adding an additional 4/$101m to the deal (making it, in essence, 5 years/$120m) or some such number that Giolito would have felt he was worth.
That would have been a nice option. As it is the Sox will have the same window to court Giolito for an extension that the Yanks will have re: Soto. If one has value, so does the other.
I think that the best case scenario is for Giolito to bounce back due to Bailey's influence; to the extent he feels comfortable in the org. and in Boston generally, and that here's a recipe here for his success, there may be a good fit for extending his current contract before he hits FA. Or being first up in FA negotiations.
To your point, Giolito said as much during the pod: paraphrasing, but he essentially stated that, if a team takes a chance on him, and the tweaks they make to his process/delivery enable him to get the long term contract that he's hoping for, why wouldn't he prioritize re-signing with the guys who made it happen?
It came across as both common sense, the "right" thing to say, and also pretty sincere. This was my first time hearing Giolito speak at any great length, and I found him to be likable and earnest sounding. And funny: he and Carrabis going back and forth about their respective tattoos was good stuff, while also hitting a little too close to home given my own transition from no-tattoos to "oh shit" back in my mid-late twenties.
Good post. Totally agree.
The more I think about it, my sense is the plan is to sign Max Fried next year. He and Giolito are good friends from their teenage years. If the latter gets back on track, Bello keeps improving, and we pull off another slick trade for controllable starter, that's a really strong rotation in 2025 when the young bats are ready.
This was a key part of the conversation to me. I don't think he's willing to give up on getting a huge bag in free agency because he confidently believes he's still that guy. I don't really blame him for that. He was also very earnest in this conversation and I think if he pitches well, and they choose to offer him a real contract, he will sign up long term.
Me too. This is tied for first with the Pats picking the right HC and the Cs getting over the top.