rodderick said:
Command was his strong suit in Chicago and that has no longer been the case since September, which is when the change occurred. In his August starts for the Red Sox, Peavy pitched 39.2 IP with 6 BB. Since September he's pitched 33.2 innings with 16 BB. Also, I recall an interview with Peavy in which he said that while going back to his old arm slot made his stuff livelier, he would have to make adjustments in order to control it as well. Of course they did it for a reason, I just never thought losing the strike zone would be a concern with him, and it has been. Looking at the timeline, I don't think it's a stretch to say the mechanical change has played a role in his command problems, which were the main issue in his meltdown yesterday.
Last night he had no command. The ball didn't go where he intended it to go regardless of outcome (his two scoreless innings) or pitch type. It was painfully obvious in the 2nd inning. That happens to pitchers, and is often more sudden and difficult to quickly address in side slinging types like Peavy. I was very worried early in the second inning from watching the individual pitch command and mechanics more than the results.
The hope I think Farrell had, especially with a veteran who has thrown 2000 innings with a 2.7 BB/9IP and a 3.20 K/BB is that the odds of him working past it and performing better than Dempster for the next few innings is better than the chances that Dempster would perform better. That is assuming the hope for a rally. Without a rally it doesn't affect the outcome and getting innings out of Peavy is likely a better option than maxing out your long guys early.
As down as I was on his command and effectiveness, and how much I would have gone to Dempster early, I think the reality is that he still had a reasonable chance of being the better option of the two, and with better BABIP/defense following the Jackson walk things could have worked out differently, and his 1-2-3 third inning showed that he wasn't completely done and useless.
I don't like bad command poorly pitched five run second innings, and I would have gone with Dempster to start the third (and used the slightly more valuable and inning limited Workman behind him), but I don't think Farrell's decision contrary to this was so far off that he deserves as much criticism as he has gotten.
In terms of Peavy's ability to be useful moving forward, I fully expect that his next start will be more like his typical start than like his disastrous second inning last night. Except when tied to an injury, I don't think there is a close correlation between starters having one of the "just doesn't have it today" outings and their next outing.
I'm speaking without broad statistical backing on that, but for example the last 10 times Peavy has given up 6+ ER in a start (other than right before his DL stint this year), his average next start is 1.7ER over 6 and 1/3rd innings.