Let’s sign a starting pitcher!

[The Gray Eagle]

There are several ways to improve last year’s lousy pitching. Signing a free agent starting pitcher is one obvious one.

This thread is about the starters available as free agents, who they are, and whether the Red Sox might be interested in them. These quick profiles include the basic numbers from this past year, the “Marcel” projections for next year, and info primarily from Aaron Gleeman’s recent look at free agent pitchers for The Athletic, and the free agent preview on MLB Trade Rumors. EDIT: And now Fangraphs' Steamer projections as well.

The Red Sox starting pitching situation is up in the air right now, with Eovaldi, Wacha, and Hill all free agents, Sale being a huge injury question mark, Paxton back on the roster, Bello and maybe a couple other guys possible internal solutions, along with Houck and Whitlock. We might sign 2 free agent starters, or none. The available free agents include a lot of any mid-rotation guys, which the Sox could use. (I would like Whitlock and Houck to be in the bullpen this year, but it looks like that might not be happening, and that topic is for another thread.)

EDIT: From Jen McCaffery on The Athletic about qualifying offers:

The Red Sox went over the luxury tax threshold and will forfeit a second- and fifth-round pick as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money for signing a QO free agent. The penalty is a bit steeper this time around. The Red Sox will, of course, receive a fourth-round pick if any of their free agents that are extended qualifying offers (Eovaldi and Bogaerts) sign elsewhere.

This year’s free agent starters are headlined by two big-name vets, Verlander and Kershaw, who are likely to be offered really good deals to stay where they are, and I don’t see any way Boston outbids their current teams or anyone else to sign any of them, so I am ignoring them in this thread.
Here are the other possibilities:

Jacob DeGrom:
RHP, will be 35 in June. 5-4, 3.08 in 64 IP this year, 2.13 FIP, 126 ERA+.
“Marcel the Monkey” projection for 2023: 7-5, 2.85 in only 101 IP.
Steamer: 13-7, 2.62 in 168 IP, 2.33 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors:

When healthy, deGrom is the best pitcher on the planet. His fastball regularly pushes triple-digits, and he backs it up with a power slider that averaged an absurd 92.6 MPH this past season. No pitcher comes close to matching deGrom’s ability to miss bats, and the two-time Cy Young winner has never posted a single-season ERA higher than 3.53… He’ll hit the market with some concerns about his durability. He missed over a full calendar year between July 2021 and this past August due to various arm issues. After battling elbow discomfort late last season, he lost the first half of the 2022 campaign to a stress reaction in his scapula (shoulder blade). deGrom returned brandishing the same otherworldly raw stuff and finished the season healthy, but between the truncated 2020 schedule and the various ailments the past two years, he’s made just 38 combined starts since the start of 2020.

The Athletic says:

DeGrom seems certain to join Max Scherzer ($43 million) and Gerrit Cole ($36 million) as the only pitchers making more than $35 million per season, but how many years will even the biggest-payroll teams be willing to hand a soon-to-be 35-year-old with 156 innings the past two seasons? No one compares on a per-start basis, so we’re about to find out how front offices weigh risk versus reward.

He got a Qualifying Offer, so we would lose draft picks and international money if we sign him.
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

He is likely to get a three-year deal worth at least $40 million per year.

The only thing DeGrom doesn’t offer is predictability. He hasn’t exactly been an innings-eater lately and is old. The Red Sox could definitely use his top end talent, but they have so many question marks already, it might not be wise to tie up a huge chunk of payroll in another guy with health question marks.
B-R nicknames: DeGrominator or DeGOAT.

Carlos Rodon:
LHP, will turn 30 in December. 14-8, 2.88 in 178 IP, 2.25 FIP, 140 ERA+.
Marcel projection for 2023: 12-8, 3.06 in 162 IP.
Steamer: 12-9, 3.19 in 175 IP, 2.99 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors:

Rodon had a breakout 2021 season with the White Sox, pitching to a 2.37 ERA while striking out 34.6% of opponents. He missed a few weeks late that summer with shoulder soreness, though, and his velocity was down a few ticks when he made his return. It earned him an All-Star nod and a fifth-place Cy Young finish, but there seemed enough trepidation about the health of his shoulder he didn’t find a long-term deal to his liking. The southpaw bet on himself, signing a two-year deal with the Giants that allowed him to opt out after the first season. His season in San Francisco was arguably even better than his final year on the South Side of Chicago. Rodon avoided the injured list (aside from a season-ending stint related to a pre-planned innings limit) and made a career-high 31 starts.

From The Athletic, Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

He’s projected to get a deal around five years for $130-$150 million.

He got a Qualifying Offer, so we would lose draft picks and international money if we sign him.
Rodon was roommates at NC State with Trea Turner. How did they not win the College World Series? Maybe they will team up again on the Red Sox.
Gleeman on The Athletic says:

Rodón is a 30-year-old lefty with a mid-90s fastball and a filthy slider coming off back-to-back Cy Young-caliber seasons, and if anything he’s been healthier recently than many free-agent starters. Last offseason, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman got five-year deals worth $115 million and $110 million, respectively. That should be the baseline for Rodón unless the injury-prone label intercedes.

B-R nickname: Los, short for Carlos. Not very creative. Why not Rodan?

Kodai Senga (Japanese free agent):
RHP, will be 30 in January. 104-51, 2.24 ERA in 1340 career IP in Japan. 1486 K with 509 walks.
MLB.com profile:

While Senga’s NPB stats are outstanding, the number that MLB teams are likely to be most interested in is 101.9: reportedly the peak velocity Senga reached in 2022. According to a scouting report from Sports Info Solutions’ Mark Simon in 2019, Senga saw his average fastball velocity jump to 95-96 mph (from 92 mph previously) during the 2019 season while routinely touching 98-99 mph.

The Athletic says:

His relatively high walk rate is a potential red flag, but Senga’s raw stuff is billed as excellent, with a high-90s fastball that reaches triple digits, a very good forkball and two usable breaking balls. Some scouting reports on Senga suggest his best chance to dominate in MLB could be as a two-pitch reliever, and perhaps that will become a fallback plan if his control issues are difficult to overcome, but enough teams likely view him as a starter to receive big long-term offers.

Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

Bloom spoke highly of Senga at the GM Meetings, calling him an impressive arm. He is projected to earn a four- or five-year deal around $55-$65 million.

Senga throws a low-90s cutter and a low-80s slider. His fastball touched 101.9 MPH this year. His forkball has been called devastating, and has been nicknamed the Ghost Fork:
View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1423975475890827265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1423975475890827265%7Ctwgr%5E214bff48569941ee5617671cb2b7cf3c9009b344%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cbssports.com%2Fmlb%2Fnews%2Fjapanese-star-pitcher-kodai-senga-expected-to-consider-mlb-offers-this-offseason-per-report%2F


Chris Bassitt:
RHP, will turn 34 in February.
Marcel: 12-7, 3.40 in 167 IP.
Steamer: 11-11, 4.03 in 193 IP, 3.96 FIP
Bassitt turned down a $19m mutual option for next year after going 15-9, 3.42 in 181.2 IP. Since missing all of 2017, he’s gone 44-23, 3.29, 3.77 FIP, 125 ERA+ in 594 IP for Oakland and the Mets.
The Athletic says:

Chris Bassitt totaled just 191 big-league innings in his 20s, but since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018 he’s quietly been one of MLB’s best starters… Bassitt lacks high-end stuff, instead relying on a deep pitch mix led by a 92-94 mph sinker to generate grounders while his four-seam fastball, cutter, slider and curveball each miss a fair amount of bats. His walk and strikeout rates are good, not great, but he limits damage by being hard to square up, allowing fewer than one homer per nine innings each of the past three seasons.

He got a Qualifying Offer, so we would lose draft picks and international money if we sign him.
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

Bassitt is expected to land a deal in the range of three years and $50-60 million, a more affordable pitcher compared to Rodon, but less dominant.

B-R nickname: C-Bass. Why not Bassitt Hound?

Nathan Eovaldi:
RHP, will be 33 in Feb. 6-3, 3.87 in 109 IP this year.
Marcel: 8-6, 3.86 in 133 IP.
10-9, 3.89 in 155 IP, 3.83 FIP.
Like Bassitt, he missed all of 2017. Since then, he’s gone 29-22, 4.08, 3.79 FIP, 111 ERA+ in 518 IP. The Athletic says: “He started just eight of Boston’s last 105 games, allowing 27 runs in 41 innings as his average fastball velocity dipped from 96.8 mph in April and May to 94.1 mph in August and September. Eovaldi has always been one of MLB’s hardest-throwing starters, so it’s unclear if he can remain a front-line arm throwing 93-95 instead of 96-98. He’s become a strike-throwing machine in his 30s, with just 1.6 walks per nine innings since 2020, but command lapses within the zone have turned into homers. If the velo doesn’t return, his splitter and curveball will need to do a lot of heavy lifting.” He likes Boston, said he’d like to come back, but will all come down to money and years. Sox could offer him a QO, but it’d be better if they could get him to sign for 2 or 3 years for less per season. Likely Eovaldi’s last chance for a big contract, so he might want more. B-R Nicknames: Nitro, Evo. Should be Big Nate, Nate the Great, or Nathan For You.

Noah Syndergaard:
RHP, will be 30 in late August. 10-10, 3.94 with 2 teams. 134 IP. 3.83 FIP, 103 ERA+.
Marcel: 8-9, 3.83 in 126 IP.
Steamer: 8-10, 4.62 in 153 IP, 4.37 FIP
Came back from Tommy John and was decent, but his velocity did not come back. The Athletic says:

Once the majors’ hardest-throwing starter, Syndergaard’s fastball was missing 4-5 mph, and as a result his go-to changeup lost effectiveness when paired with a pitch that was 93-95 instead of 96-98… That version of Thor lacks upside beyond a mid-rotation starter, but pounding the strike zone and keeping the ball on the ground is certainly a viable recipe for success in that realm. Syndergaard got a one-year, $21 million contract from the Angels last offseason and that level of annual salary is surely out of the question now, but some teams may still be willing to bet on his velocity returning.

Nickname: Thor.

Jose Quintana:
LHP, will be 34. Had a surprisingly good year, especially after being traded to the Cardinals. 6-7, 2.93 in 165 IP and 2.99 FIP, 137 ERA+.
Marcel: 5-7, 3.73 in 140 IP.
Steamer: 10-10, 3.99 in 164 IP, 3.98 FIP.
Only made $2 million last year.
The Athletic:

While he’s generally done a good job limiting homers in the past, eight homers in 32 starts simply isn’t sustainable, especially attached to a neutral ground-ball rate. That doesn’t mean Quintana hasn’t legitimately resurrected his career, but rather that expecting him to be more than a quality mid-rotation starter would probably be a mistake requiring his low-90s fastball to remain damage-proof.

Nickname: Q, or Lelo.

Carlos Carrasco:
RHP, will turn 36 in March. The Mets have club option on him for $14 million. Seems like they would opt to keep him. They haven’t picked it up yet, but have until Thursday to do so. Went 15-7, 3.97 in 152 IP this year. 3.53 FIP, 97 ERA+. Marcel: 10-8, 4.12 in 142 IP. Nickname: Cookie.
EDIT: the Mets picked up his option, so he is OFF the market.

Sean Manaea:
LHP, will be 31 in Feb. 8-9, 4.96 in 158 IP. 4.53 FIP, 75 ERA+.
Marcel: 9-9, 4.33 in 156 IP.
Steamer: 9-9, 4.05 in 154 IP, 4.00 FIP.
The Athletic:

Sean Manaea’s go-to changeup failed him in 2022, turning his lone season with San Diego into a mess after six solid years in Oakland. As usual, the left-hander used the pitch nearly a third of the time versus right-handed batters, but instead of neutralizing them, his changeup got clobbered for a .528 slugging percentage compared to .305 the previous three years. He had a 4.96 ERA in 158 innings. Teams convinced they can fix Manaea’s changeup likely view him as a solid mid-rotation option, but below-average velocity and middling control leave little margin for error if they’re wrong. Manaea has benefited from pitcher-friendly home ballparks in both Oakland and San Diego. His career ERA is 3.68 at home and 4.45 on the road, with a 20 percent increase in homers and a 25-point jump in batting average on balls in play explaining the difference. He also hasn’t been quite the same since his 2019 shoulder surgery, looking much more like a No. 4 starter than a No. 2 starter.

Nickname: Baby Giraffe. Can't beat that one.

Andrew Heaney:
LHP, will be 32. Went 4-4, 3.10 in 72 IP. 3.75 FIP, 136 ERA+.
Marcel: 6-6, 4.43 in 104 IP.
Steamer: 9-8, 3.59 in 140 IP, 3.53 FIP.
Was never very good, then was horrendous last year with the Yankees. The Dodgers seemed to fix him. Will anyone else be able to keep him effective?
The Athletic:

Clearly the Dodgers were able to unlock something in Heaney, but interested teams must now decide how much they believe in his overall improvement and how much they trust his shoulder. Reintroducing his once-decent changeup to go with the souped-up fastball-slider combo may be intriguing, although suitors betting on his breakout probably don’t want to stray far from the Dodgers’ plan.

Nickname: Heandog. Who cares anyway, he will either stay with the Dodgers and be good again, or he will go somewhere else and stink again.

Corey Kluber:
RHP, will be 37 in April. Went 10-10, 4.34 in 164 IP with Tampa. 3.57 FIP, 84 ERA+.
Marcel: 9-8, 4.20 in 150 IP.
Steamer: 9-11, 4.45 in 159 IP, 4.36 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors says:

He posted a 4.34 ERA but walked a minuscule 3% of batters faced. Kluber’s fastball is down to around 89 MPH, but he still generated swinging strikes on more than 11% of his offerings and was adept at getting opponents to swing at pitches outside the strike zone. He has a good chance at beating last offseason’s $8MM guarantee as a result.

Meh, if all the Devil Rays could get out of him was an 84 ERA+, then there’s little chance the Red Sox would get any more out of him, or even that much.
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

The Red Sox were close to signing him each of the last two winters, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they’re in on him again this offseason. Kluber, who turns 37 in April, owns a home in Winchester, Mass. and resides there in the winter with his family. He’s projected to earn a one-year deal worth around $10 million.

Nicknames: Klubot, Hans Kluber, or Klubes.

Tyler Anderson:
LHP, will be 33. Came out of nowhere to go 15-5, 2.57 in 178 IP with the Dodgers.
Marcel: 11-8, 3.49 in 165 IP. They need to have a separate Marcel projection of him with the Dodgers, and then a second, much, much worse one with all other teams.
Steamer: 10-11, 4.29 in 177 IP, 4.35 FIP.
The Athletic says:

Tyler Anderson came into 2022 with a career 4.62 ERA, including a 4.49 ERA the previous two years even after leaving Colorado. Far from a hot commodity last offseason, he signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Dodgers after the lockout and made his first All-Star team at age 32, going 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA in 179 innings, including a 2.01 ERA after July 1. And yet, skepticism abounds. Only five NL starters had a lower BABIP than Anderson and two of them were rotation mates Julio Urías and Tony Gonsolin. It’s not a coincidence. As a staff, the Dodgers had a .256 BABIP. No other NL team was below .280. Anderson is better than he was before joining the Dodgers, but he’s unlikely to be as good anywhere else.

He got a Qualifying Offer, so we would lose draft picks and international money if we sign him. Please, Red Sox, do not outbid everyone and give up the picks and international money to sign this guy to a long term contract. Unless the entire Dodgers pitching coordination and coaching staff comes with him.
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

He’s projected to earn a two- or three-year deal in the $30-$50 million range, making him an affordable, solid option for the middle of the Red Sox rotation.

Nicknames: Ricky F., or Mr. Duck.

Jake Odorizzi:
RHP, turns 33 in March. Went 6-6, 4.40 in 106 IP with 2 teams. 4.28 FIP, 90 ERA+. Seems like he pretty much always has an ERA just a bit over 4.00 in fewer than 150 IP. And his Marcel projection is: 7-7, 4.24 in 123 IP. Has a player option of $12.5 million, or a $6.25m buyout. So if he is sure he can get a one-year deal of over $6m, he should opt out. Nickname: Odo, which is lame. He should be nicknamed Odor Eater, or Over Easy.
EDIT: looks like he opted in and just got traded, so he is OFF the market. No big loss.

Taijuan Walker:
RHP, will be 30. 12-5, 3.49 in 157 IP with the Mets. 3.65 FIP, 111 ERA+.
Marcel: 10-8, 3.80 in 154 IP.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.39 in 152 IP, 4.38 FIP.
The Athletic says:

Walker lacks a second above-average pitch, and his fastball got knocked around too often last season despite good velocity, but he has a deep repertoire of usable offerings and generally throws strikes. Two offseason ago, when injuries were a much bigger worry, Walker got a two-year, $20 million deal from the Mets that included a $6 million 2023 player option that became a no-brainer to decline.

The Mets did not give him a QO, so he can be signed without losing draft and international money.
Seems like his nickname should be Tie One On, but instead it’s Tai-Weezy. If he married Jameson Taillon, his name would be Taijuan Taillon.

Michael Wacha:
RHP, will be 31. Went 11-2, 3.32 with Boston in 127 IP. 4.14 FIP, 127 ERA+.
Marcel: 8-5, 4.06 in 133 IP.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.42 in 150 IP, 4.36 FIP.
He seemed to figure things out at the end of 2021, and the Sox signed him for cheap. He was really good with Boston until September, when he either came back down to earth or was tired from pitching more innings than he has in a while.
The Athletic:

Wacha struggled for most of 2021 with Tampa Bay, but he finished on a high note with a 45-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final 39 innings to earn a one-year, $7 million deal from Boston last offseason. Building on that success in 2022, he started 23 times with a 3.32 ERA and 104-to-31 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 127 innings for his best season since his lone All-Star year in 2015. While his fastball is far too hittable, Wacha has relied on it less and less recently while leaning more on his great changeup. His last 30 starts show some upside remains.

Nickname: Wachamole. I always assumed that’s pronounced Whack-a-mole, but maybe it’s Wacha-mole-ay, like guacamole? Wacha is a weird name. Was he named by Fozzie Bear? It’s even weirder to hear it spoken by people from Massachusetts, because it sounds like they are calling him Michael Walker.

Jameson Taillon:
RHP, will be 31. Went 14-5, 3.91 in 177 IP for NYY with a 3.94 FIP and 100 ERA+. Both seasons he pitched for the Yankees he had an exactly average ERA+ of 100.
Marcel: 11-6, 4.03 in 163 IP.
Steamer: 10-11, 4.33 in 170 IP, 4.20 FIP.
The Athletic says:

Given his non-linear career path and demonstrated ability to alter his approach, Taillon seemingly has more potential for upside than most 30-year-old veterans, but he’s also a league-average starter as is. In recent offseasons, starters like him have tended to get two- or three-year deals worth around $12 million per, but it wouldn’t be surprising if some teams value the former No. 2 pick a bit higher.

Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

It wouldn’t be a flashy signing, but he could be a good fit. He’s projected to earn a three- or four-year deal in the $45-$60 million range.

Nickname: J-Mo. Pretty weak nickname for a guy named after Catholic whiskey. If he married Taijuan Walker, his name would be Jameson Walker, which sounds like a distillery.

Mike Clevinger:
RHP, will be 32. 7-7, 4.33 in 114 IP with a 4.97 FIP and 86 ERA+.
Marcel says he will be pretty much the same next year: 7-7, 4.11 in 116 IP. But that’s what happens with Marcel when a guy barely pitches in the pandemic year, then misses the next season with injury.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.44 in 151 IP, 4.40 FIP.
The Athletic:

Clevinger seemed to run out of gas in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, allowing 34 runs in his final 54 regular-season innings before two awful playoff starts. However, before things unraveled he was looking a lot like his pre-surgery self, averaging 94.1 mph on his fastball and posting a 3.13 ERA with 59 strikeouts through 60 innings. Clevinger turns 32 in December and this was his second Tommy John surgery, so the front-line, bat-missing starter with a 3.20 career ERA for Cleveland may be gone for good, but it seems natural to think he could be a solid mid-rotation option another year removed from surgery. He feels like a prime candidate for a one-year deal to reestablish his value and re-enter the market next offseason.

Nickname: Sunshine, apparently after the character from “Remember the Titans.” Seems like Cleaver would be a better nickname, and could lead to other even better nicknames, like Beaver and/or The Pork Store Killer.

Rich Hill:
LHP, will continue to be old, and then be even older. Went 8-7, 4.27 this past year in 124 IP. 3.92 FIP, 98 ERA+.
Marcel: 7-8, 4.11 in 138 IP.
Steamer: 6-6, 4.39 in 94 IP, 4.39 FIP.
Has said he’d like to pitch in the World Baseball Classic and might not sign till after that. SOSH nickname: Dick Mountain. B-R also lists “Field of Genes” as a nickname, which is a reference to the great charity that Hill runs.

Johnny Cueto:
RHP, will be 37. Went 8-10, 3.35 in 158 IP with a 3.79 FIP and 118 ERA+.
Marcel: 8-9, 3.87 in 149 IP.
Steamer: 8-10, 4.68 in 152 IP, 4.62 FIP.
The Athletic says:

Wasn’t added to the active roster until May 16, at which point he started every fifth game for the next five months and finished with a 3.35 ERA in 158 innings. Was 4th in the AL in IP after mid-May, which is remarkable for a 36-year-old who hadn’t topped 150 innings since 2016. His velocity tank is empty, but he’s a master at keeping hitters off balance with a five-pitch mix and varied deliveries, avoiding walks and hard contact while getting chases outside the strike zone.

Could he be a poor man’s version of Luis Tiant for a year or two? Just saying, Tiant went 26-16, 3.60 with a 115 ERA+ in his age 37 and 38 seasons. Nickname: Johnny Beisbol.

Martin Perez:
LHP, will be 32. Somehow went 12-8, 2.89 in 196 IP after leaving Boston for the Rangers. 3.26 FIP, 136 ERA+.
Marcel: 10-9, 3.57 in 164 IP.
Steamer: 11-12, 4.18 in 191 IP, 4.15 FIP.
We’ve seen him here before. Had a shockingly effective season this time, due mostly to an unsustainable HR rate. He would be a good innings eater if he cost the same as in 2020 and 2021, but not worth what he’ll probably get offered after this contract year.
He got a Qualifying Offer, so we would lose draft picks and international money if we sign him. No thanks!
Nicknames: El de Guanare (“The one from Guanare”) or El de las Matas (“The one with the bushes”?? Is he a big fan of George W and George HW?? Is he from Kennebunkport??)

Chris Archer:
RHP, will be 34. Wow, I thought he was 3 or 4 years younger than that. The Twins declined their $10M option on him after he went 2-8, 4.56 in 102 IP with a 5.02 FIP and 83 ERA+.
Marcel: 4-8, 4.30 in 113 IP.
Steamer: 7-8, 4.73 in 114 IP, 4.66 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors says:

His days as an upper mid-rotation arm are behind him, but he could find another big league contract as a back-of-the-rotation type.

Nickname: Flaco Fuerte, or Skinny Strong. Why not Sterling Archer?

Shintaro Fujinami (Japanese pitcher will be posted):
RHP, will be 29 in April.
From his Wikipedia page:

Listed at 6‘6” and 220 lbs. With a three-quarters delivery, he throws a fastball topping out at 101 mph, a splitter, and a solid mid-80's slider. He mostly uses his fastball-slider combination in games.

From MLB trade rumors:

All of this seems to make Fujinami a high-risk, high-reward possibility for teams in free agency. On the one hand, he has hit 162 km/h (101 mph) with his fastball and has been elite in the past. Despite his decade-long track record, he’ll be just 29 years old next season. On the other hand, he has struggled so badly in recent years that the Tigers haven’t let him be anything more than a depth arm since 2016. There is likely to be a wide variance in how he is viewed by MLB clubs, with some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools. Once he is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.

Might be worth a shot since he hits 101 with the heater. Maybe would be a good reliever?
Nickname apparently is “The Yu Darvish of Naniwa,” which is clunky in English. Since he is tall, maybe Mount Fujinami, or Fuji-san?

Ross Stripling:
RHP, will be 33. 10-4, 3.01 in 134 IP, with a 3.11 FIP, 129 ERA+. Really good year, especially being in the AL East.
Marcel: 8-6, 3.84 in 129 IP.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.31 in 147 IP, 4.24 FIP.
The Athletic says:

Stripling’s low-90s fastball and lack of a swing-and-miss breaking ball are why he hasn’t been handed full-time rotation spots, but he’s got a 3.86 ERA in 104 career starts, including a 3.77 ERA in 45 starts for Toronto and a 3.93 ERA in 59 starts for Los Angeles. His mistakes tend to get crushed for homers, but he throws strikes and keeps left-handed hitters off balance with a good changeup.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

Had a 3.01 ERA in 134 1/3 frames, with 24 of his 32 appearances coming as a starter. Stripling has a below-average strikeout rate but showed elite command in 2022. He probably won’t replicate a 3.7% walk rate, but his career 5.7% mark shows that his plus command is real. He has a strong case for a full-time rotation job somewhere in free agency.

Will Ross go on a break from the Blue Jays?
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:

Stripling has split his career between starting and relieving so he could be a solid option for a Red Sox rotation in need of depth. He could earn a two- or three-year deal in the $20-$30 million range.

B-R nickname: Chicken Strip. Should have gone with “Stripper”.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Kodai Senga (Japanese free agent) RHP, will be 30 in January. 104-51, 2.24 ERA in 1340 career IP in Japan. 1486 K with 509 walks. MLB.com profile: “While Senga’s NPB stats are outstanding, the number that MLB teams are likely to be most interested in is 101.9: reportedly the peak velocity Senga reached in 2022. According to a scouting report from Sports Info Solutions’ Mark Simon in 2019, Senga saw his average fastball velocity jump to 95-96 mph (from 92 mph previously) during the 2019 season while routinely touching 98-99 mph.”
The Athletic says: “His relatively high walk rate is a potential red flag, but Senga’s raw stuff is billed as excellent, with a high-90s fastball that reaches triple digits, a very good forkball and two usable breaking balls. Some scouting reports on Senga suggest his best chance to dominate in MLB could be as a two-pitch reliever, and perhaps that will become a fallback plan if his control issues are difficult to overcome, but enough teams likely view him as a starter to receive big long-term offers.”
Senga throws a low-90s cutter and a low-80s slider. His fastball touched 101.9 MPH this year. His forkball has been called devastating, and has been nicknamed the Ghost Fork on Twitter:

Shintaro Fujinami (Japanese pitcher will be posted) RHP, will be 29 in April.
From his Wikipedia page: “Listed at 6‘6” and 220 lbs. With a three-quarters delivery, he throws a fastball topping out at 101 mph, a splitter, and a solid mid-80's slider. He mostly uses his fastball-slider combination in games.“ From MLB trade rumors: “All of this seems to make Fujinami a high-risk, high-reward possibility for teams in free agency. On the one hand, he has hit 126 km/h (101 mph) with his fastball and has been elite in the past. Despite his decade-long track record, he’ll be just 29 years old next season. On the other hand, he has struggled so badly in recent years that the Tigers haven’t let him be anything more than a depth arm since 2016. There is likely to be a wide variance in how he is viewed by MLB clubs, with some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools. Once he is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Tigers, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given to Fujinami. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Tigers a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter.” Might be worth a shot since he hits 101 with the heater. Maybe would be a good reliever?
Nickname apparently is “The Yu Darvish of Naniwa,” which is clunky in English. Since he is tall, maybe Mount Fujinami, or Fuji-san?

Quick correction on the Fujinami blurb -- I know the error was in the source material and not yours, but 101mph is 162kph, not 126.

Anyway just for some color on these two guys:
I think Senga is a legit starter. He throws gas, and the splitter is devastating. He has been well known to scouts for years, and I think there will be no shortage of starter-level offers for him. In the MLB forum FA Prediction thread the guesses for his deal ranged from 4/12.5 (total!) to 5/105. Quite a range of AAV guesses; my own guess is something like 4/60 or 5/75. He is an international Free Agent, so there will be no posting process.

Fujinami I think is likely better used as a bullpen arm, hopefully on a team that can help him with the control issues. The part about "some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools" is spot on, imho. When he was drafted in 2012 in the same draft class as Ohtani, he was actually more sought after (though that was in part because most teams thought Ohtani was going directly to the US), and went to the Tigers in the 1st round. Then the Tigers did absolutely nothing to develop him, protect him, or manage his workload. He threw twice as many innings as a 19yo than Ohtani. I think I've mentioned this here before but a few years ago I saw him make his first start of the season on a cold drizzly early April night at Jingu, and although he was clearly gassed around 90 pitches, he went on to throw over 140. Just criminal usage by the Tigers.

A guy called Yakyu Cosmopolitan on Twitter is, imho, putting out the best NPB content in English these days and yesterday released a video on Senga & Fujinami (and Masataka Yoshida):
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dobhf35uyg


At 2:11 Senga K's some guy on Team Netherlands named Bogaerts.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Taillon seems interesting to me. Young, durable, division tested. Not high profile but pretty solid. Signing him to a 3 year / $40ish type deal seems moderately appealing. With all the high risk high reward starters under control, someone like this could help.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

I was thinking similarly on Verlander, but if he were a lock to stay in HOU, wouldn’t they have worked out an extension already? The Astros have cut bait on Springer and Correa and have a ton of pitching. If Verlander gets 3 year offers or a Scherzer+ AAV, I could easily see HOU walking away. I’m not saying BOS will be the last team standing in one of those scenarios, but you can squint and see it.

Separately, the range of options on this list tells me we won’t extend a QO to Wacha. EO? Maybe. $20M isn’t a bargain for him, even on a one year deal, but it’s reasonable. I’d put the chances at 55/45. I think Chaim probably wants to add one legit starter to the mix, so it will depend on if they intend to go after (1) someone better, like Verlander/Rodon, (b) bargain hunt, or (c) go with the devil they know. If they decide they want Eovaldi to stay, and plan to offer the QO, I think there’s also a good chance they offer a two year deal at a slightly lower AAV (say, 2/$36M).

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1590582027019223042?s=46&t=uh5XHopni8JS8aHWXF9OoQ


Apparently we’re in on Heaney again, and Lugo has been a useful and fairly underrated multi-inning arm.

 

[BoSox Rule]

They’ll never do jt but Just sign deGrom and Bogaerts or one of the better defensive SS if you want to make a huge splash and be competitive. If he sinks you were F’ed anyway because you rely on Sale. 3/$120.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Quick correction on the Fujinami blurb -- I know the error was in the source material and not yours, but 101mph is 162kph, not 126.

Anyway just for some color on these two guys:
I think Senga is a legit starter. He throws gas, and the splitter is devastating. He has been well known to scouts for years, and I think there will be no shortage of starter-level offers for him. In the MLB forum FA Prediction thread the guesses for his deal ranged from 4/12.5 (total!) to 5/105. Quite a range of AAV guesses; my own guess is something like 4/60 or 5/75. He is an international Free Agent, so there will be no posting process.

Fujinami I think is likely better used as a bullpen arm, hopefully on a team that can help him with the control issues. The part about "some completely uninterested and others willing to take a chance on his arsenal with the aim of helping him harness his tools" is spot on, imho. When he was drafted in 2012 in the same draft class as Ohtani, he was actually more sought after (though that was in part because most teams thought Ohtani was going directly to the US), and went to the Tigers in the 1st round. Then the Tigers did absolutely nothing to develop him, protect him, or manage his workload. He threw twice as many innings as a 19yo than Ohtani. I think I've mentioned this here before but a few years ago I saw him make his first start of the season on a cold drizzly early April night at Jingu, and although he was clearly gassed around 90 pitches, he went on to throw over 140. Just criminal usage by the Tigers.

A guy called Yakyu Cosmopolitan on Twitter is, imho, putting out the best NPB content in English these days and yesterday released a video on Senga & Fujinami (and Masataka Yoshida):
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dobhf35uyg


At 2:11 Senga K's some guy on Team Netherlands named Bogaerts.

Thanks, great info. (Also, I edited that km/hr mistake.)

The video makes me want to see us sign Yoshida even more. Senga looks nasty, but I think his limited innings total and some of the other teams mentioned as being interested means we are not as likely to outbid everyone for him. Seems like if we lay out big money for a pitcher, it'd be for a guy more likely to eat innings, based on all the question marks we have on our staff. Though Bloom is always looking for future value, and if he think there would be some, he might get involved.

I hate, hate, hate the idea of us signing Heaney. But based on previous offseasons and deadlines, I expect the fanbase to be irate at some of our moves after we bring in guys who are not big names and who haven't done well recently. Like when we were all like "Hunter Renfore? He hit .140 last year!" and then "Schwarber isn't a first baseman and he's hurt!" and then "How can we let Renfroe and Schwarber leave?" and then "Wacha stinks, what a waste of money!" etc.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Heaney is intriguing, but not the guy I'd want to be the top or only pitcher signed this winter. He has potential to fit into a swing role similar to Whitlock's 2021 role...covering 3-4 innings every 4-5 days out of the pen. He missed time with shoulder issues during the first half last year, but in the second half he took regular turns through the Dodger rotation. His only real flaw seems to be the stamina to pitch deep into games. He threw only 65 innings over 14 starts (just under 5 innings per start) before moving to the pen as a long man in preparation for the postseason. His final line was 16 games, 72.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 13.6 K/9, 1.087 WHIP.

 

[Daniel_Son]

Sign me up for Chris Bassitt. Guy's been a top-10/15 pitcher in baseball for two years now (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%... etc.). The lack of home runs especially would play especially well at Fenway. Would 4/20 get it done?

 

[manny]

Sign me up for Chris Bassitt. Guy's been a top-10/15 pitcher in baseball for two years now (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%... etc.). The lack of home runs especially would play especially well at Fenway. Would 4/20 get it done?

Assume you're saying $20 mil AAV. That probably would get it done, probably a bit of an overpay--Clemens at Fangraphs predicts 3x17 ($54 mil).

 

[Yaz4Ever]

Sign me up for Chris Bassitt. Guy's been a top-10/15 pitcher in baseball for two years now (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%... etc.). The lack of home runs especially would play especially well at Fenway. Would 4/20 get it done?

Agree on this

 

[effectivelywild]

Nathan Eovaldi: Should be Big Nate, Nate the Great, or Nathan For You.

My name is Nathan Eovaldi and I graduated from one of Texas's top high schools with a really good fastball. Now I'm using my knowledge to help struggling pitchers make it in the major leagues. This is Nathan for you.

Last year the Red Sox starting rotation was decimated by injuries:

 

[Beomoose]

Sign me up for Chris Bassitt. Guy's been a top-10/15 pitcher in baseball for two years now (ERA, K/9, BB/9, HR/9, GB%... etc.). The lack of home runs especially would play especially well at Fenway. Would 4/20 get it done?

His lack of home runs have come from doing a lot of pitching in 2 of the 5 best parks for pitchers. Looking at his BaseballSavant visualization page, I'm a bit worried that, facing AL East hitters, his flies would find a lot of Wall and the short porch in the toilet. Additionally, he doesn't miss a lot of bats even though he paints around the edges of the strike zone.

 

[chawson]

I wouldn't hate a Chris Bassitt signing but I don't know what we'd be getting with him that we wouldn't with (a healthy) Eovaldi, and we wouldn't be giving up a pick.

My name is Nathan Eovaldi and I graduated from one of Texas's top high schools with a really good fastball. Now I'm using my knowledge to help struggling pitchers make it in the major leagues. This is Nathan for you.

Last year the Red Sox starting rotation was decimated by injuries:
View attachment 57458

Incredible.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

My name is Nathan Eovaldi and I graduated from one of Texas's top high schools with a really good fastball. Now I'm using my knowledge to help struggling pitchers make it in the major leagues. This is Nathan for you.

Last year the Red Sox starting rotation was decimated by injuries:
View attachment 57458

Awesome work!

I edited the original post to add info about Qualifying Offers, and some estimates about some of these guys' expected contracts.

 

[grepal]

not a huge fan of the Sox going after journeymen pitchers who had a good year with the Dodgers. It is pretty well established in baseball that Dodger Stadium is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors. A lot of pitchers have better numbers there than elsewhere.

 

[effectivelywild]

not a huge fan of the Sox going after journeymen pitchers who had a good year with the Dodgers. It is pretty well established in baseball that Dodger Stadium is one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the majors. A lot of pitchers have better numbers there than elsewhere.

I mean, it has a park factor of 102 so no, it's not one of the most pitcher friendly parks---it's slightly above average for hitters (Fenway, FWIW, is at 109). What you probably meant is that a lot of Dodger pitchers have had good years after signing there which they haven't necessarily replicated esewhere, which likely has more to do with their coaching staff and defense rather than the park itself.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

deGrom - if you can sign to 2/3 year deal, it’s worth it IMO. Assuming Sale doesn’t sneeze or ride a bike or breathe too aggressively, what an incredible 1/2 that could be.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

deGrom - if you can sign to 2/3 year deal, it’s worth it IMO. Assuming Sale doesn’t sneeze or ride a bike or breathe too aggressively, what an incredible 1/2 that could be.

Boy, I love DeGrom’s talent. Who doesn’t? But I’m not sure his recent track history of less-than-stellar durability is what this Sox team needs right now. Not with Sale, Paxton, and potentially Whitlock in the rotation, too. I’d rather get Verlander, whose arm at least was perfectly healthy and still dominant last year. And I’m not sure I’d want Verlander on a 3 year deal at the AAV he’s likely to command.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Just make some big moves and show the fan base and more importantly the clubhouse that ownership still wants to win. That’s all I want. Re up X at least make progress if not sign Devers plus another big bat/high end starter/multiple good relievers.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

deGrom - if you can sign to 2/3 year deal, it’s worth it IMO. Assuming Sale doesn’t sneeze or ride a bike or breathe too aggressively, what an incredible 1/2 that could be.

I would be fine taking the risk on a 2/3 year deal, but I have a feeling he's going to get more than that from somebody like Texas.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I would be fine taking the risk on a 2/3 year deal, but I have a feeling he's going to get more than that from somebody like Texas.

Yeah, I get the feeling that Texas is going to throw stupid money at deGrom, and if they can't get him (or maybe even if they do) at Rodon, Verlander or maybe Senga - like last year, I think they want two big FAs, this time for the rotation. And Steve Cohen is certainly going to open his wallet to resign deGrom or bring in a replacement for him and Bassitt. I kind of doubt the Sox want to spend stupid money on the rotation, so unless they can snag Senga, I think that any major additions to the rotation will come via trade.

 

[Dustin the Wind]

I'm still holding out hope of the pipe dream of trading for Shane Bieber. Would we have enough in the prospect tank (Outside of Mayer)?

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

I'm still holding out hope of the pipe dream of trading for Shane Bieber. Would we have enough in the prospect tank (Outside of Mayer)?

Nope. Cleveland won't be dealing Bieber this off-season anyway but even if they did, Mayer wouldn't carry as much weight with them as most teams. They have a plethora of middle infield prospects now battling for one future spot after Jimenez's breakout season. Casas might be interesting to them, but Bieber would take a lot more than an still unproven first baseman and most of Cleveland's best bats are already lefties.

If Cleveland was to make a major trade, Boston just doesn't seem like a match. When they do deal a star, the Guardians get immediate major league help at an area of need, and the Red Sox don't have big league ready right-handed outfielders or first basemen.

Cleveland is looking to deal at least one of Plesac or Civale. Obviously neither is a front of the rotation guy, but neither requires a serious haul. Civale is actually a pretty good twice-through-the-rotation guy (don't judge last year's numbers until you look at his game log or monthly splits).

 

[jon abbey]

If Cleveland was to make a major trade, Boston just doesn't seem like a match. When they do deal a star, the Guardians get immediate major league help at an area of need, and the Red Sox don't have big league ready right-handed outfielders or first basemen.

Also don't they basically always send them to the NL?

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

Or the Rangers. I don't think it's necessarily that they insist on sending them out of the league, but if Cleveland can get what they're looking for from a team they know they won't see in the AL playoffs, it's certainly an advantage.

The only people speculating about a Bieber trade are click bait writers with zero insight about the Guardians. It makes no sense to deal your ace coming off a feel-good season, when you're the favorite to win the division again and most of the youngest roster in baseball will still be making less than $1M. They have MLB ready pitchers to replace Plesac and Civale, but not Bieber replacements.

If/when Bieber is heading into his last year of team control next winter, and Daniel Espino and/or Gavin Williams is major league ready (two guys who reached AA this year and have higher ceilings than those who made their MLB debuts in 2022), then trading their ace could make sense.

Since Bieber has insisted on betting year-to-year on himself, I expect him to pass on any extension at this point, and continued success probably prices him out of the Cleveland market. However, the Guardians also finally solved their minority ownership problem earlier this year, giving the Dolans much needed cash flow after 5 years. That's a wild card in future negotiations. I have no doubt David Blitzer was a determining factor in resigning Jose Ramirez. I don't know how much he can actually help, but he'll eventually be majority owner and I don't think he wants to be branded as the cheapskate the Dolans are.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

From the original post, these are the only remaining free agents:

Nathan Eovaldi:
RHP, will be 33 in Feb. 6-3, 3.87 in 109 IP this year.
Marcel: 8-6, 3.86 in 133 IP.
10-9, 3.89 in 155 IP, 3.83 FIP.
Like Bassitt, he missed all of 2017. Since then, he’s gone 29-22, 4.08, 3.79 FIP, 111 ERA+ in 518 IP. The Athletic says: “He started just eight of Boston’s last 105 games, allowing 27 runs in 41 innings as his average fastball velocity dipped from 96.8 mph in April and May to 94.1 mph in August and September. Eovaldi has always been one of MLB’s hardest-throwing starters, so it’s unclear if he can remain a front-line arm throwing 93-95 instead of 96-98. He’s become a strike-throwing machine in his 30s, with just 1.6 walks per nine innings since 2020, but command lapses within the zone have turned into homers. If the velo doesn’t return, his splitter and curveball will need to do a lot of heavy lifting.” He likes Boston, said he’d like to come back, but will all come down to money and years. Sox could offer him a QO, but it’d be better if they could get him to sign for 2 or 3 years for less per season. Likely Eovaldi’s last chance for a big contract, so he might want more. B-R Nicknames: Nitro, Evo. Should be Big Nate, Nate the Great, or Nathan For You.

Corey Kluber:
RHP, will be 37 in April. Went 10-10, 4.34 in 164 IP with Tampa. 3.57 FIP, 84 ERA+.
Marcel: 9-8, 4.20 in 150 IP.
Steamer: 9-11, 4.45 in 159 IP, 4.36 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors says:
Meh, if all the Devil Rays could get out of him was an 84 ERA+, then there’s little chance the Red Sox would get any more out of him, or even that much.
Jen McCaffrey's guess at his contract:
Nicknames: Klubot, Hans Kluber, or Klubes.

Michael Wacha:
RHP, will be 31. Went 11-2, 3.32 with Boston in 127 IP. 4.14 FIP, 127 ERA+.
Marcel: 8-5, 4.06 in 133 IP.
Steamer: 9-10, 4.42 in 150 IP, 4.36 FIP.
He seemed to figure things out at the end of 2021, and the Sox signed him for cheap. He was really good with Boston until September, when he either came back down to earth or was tired from pitching more innings than he has in a while.
The Athletic:

Nickname: Wachamole. I always assumed that’s pronounced Whack-a-mole, but maybe it’s Wacha-mole-ay, like guacamole? Wacha is a weird name. Was he named by Fozzie Bear? It’s even weirder to hear it spoken by people from Massachusetts, because it sounds like they are calling him Michael Walker.

Rich Hill:
LHP, will continue to be old, and then be even older. Went 8-7, 4.27 this past year in 124 IP. 3.92 FIP, 98 ERA+.
Marcel: 7-8, 4.11 in 138 IP.
Steamer: 6-6, 4.39 in 94 IP, 4.39 FIP.
Has said he’d like to pitch in the World Baseball Classic and might not sign till after that. SOSH nickname: Dick Mountain. B-R also lists “Field of Genes” as a nickname, which is a reference to the great charity that Hill runs.

Johnny Cueto:
RHP, will be 37. Went 8-10, 3.35 in 158 IP with a 3.79 FIP and 118 ERA+.
Marcel: 8-9, 3.87 in 149 IP.
Steamer: 8-10, 4.68 in 152 IP, 4.62 FIP.
The Athletic says:
Could he be a poor man’s version of Luis Tiant for a year or two? Just saying, Tiant went 26-16, 3.60 with a 115 ERA+ in his age 37 and 38 seasons. Nickname: Johnny Beisbol.

Chris Archer:
RHP, will be 34. Wow, I thought he was 3 or 4 years younger than that. The Twins declined their $10M option on him after he went 2-8, 4.56 in 102 IP with a 5.02 FIP and 83 ERA+.
Marcel: 4-8, 4.30 in 113 IP.
Steamer: 7-8, 4.73 in 114 IP, 4.66 FIP.
MLB Trade Rumors says:

Nickname: Flaco Fuerte, or Skinny Strong. Why not Sterling Archer?

Shintaro Fujinami (Japanese pitcher will be posted):
RHP, will be 29 in April.
From his Wikipedia page:

From MLB trade rumors:
Might be worth a shot since he hits 101 with the heater. Maybe would be a good reliever?
Nickname apparently is “The Yu Darvish of Naniwa,” which is clunky in English. Since he is tall, maybe Mount Fujinami, or Fuji-san?

At this point, I think we should bring back Eovaldi. Anyone else who signs him will be giving up the QO compensation in addition to whatever they pay him, so it seems that should restrict his market a bit. Maybe the holdup is him wanting more years than we want to give him? He seems like a good bet to be a solid starter in the AL East for another couple years and should be healthy to start the season at least, though he'll surely be on the injured list for a few weeks at some point.
He's 17-12, 3.80 in 291 innings over the past 2 years with a 3.36 FIP.
518 innings pitched over the past 4 years, an average of about 130 per season, and that includes the Covid-shortened 2020 when he only threw 58. He's been solid in this market and this division, and said he wanted to come back.
Seems like a reasonable expectation for him for the next couple of seasons would be about 130-140 IP with an ERA around 4.00. That seems like it would be worth it for this team.

 

[nvalvo]

I actually think I might prefer Cueto, honestly.

Veteran guy; pitched 7 or more 8 IP in eight starts last season — including two gems against Houston! Doesn't strike anyone out, but doesn't walk anyone and keeps the ball on the ground. Seems like a good dude for Bello to hang out with and talk about throwing groundballs.

Suuuuuuper fun to watch.

 

[simplicio]

For the length of contract I think Eo will command, I'm out on him. The drop off he showed coming back from injury last year was concerning, and the guy really can't stay healthy; don't we already have enough of those? If he'll settle for 2, maybe 3 years? Sure. But I think someone will give him more.

I'm most interested in Johnny Cueto I think? His strikeout rate dropped quite a bit last year, but so did his BB and HR numbers, which suggests he's found a way to remain effective with age and diminished stuff. His 2.4 fWAR was better than anyone on the Sox staff this year, and he seems like a better candidate for a 1-2 year deal than the bigger names.

Edit: jinx!

 

[nattysez]

For the length of contract I think Eo will command, I'm out on him. The drop off he showed coming back from injury last year was concerning, and the guy really can't stay healthy; don't we already have enough of those? If he'll settle for 2, maybe 3 years? Sure. But I think someone will give him more.

I'm most interested in Johnny Cueto I think? His strikeout rate dropped quite a bit last year, but so did his BB and HR numbers, which suggests he's found a way to remain effective with age and diminished stuff. His 2.4 fWAR was better than anyone on the Sox staff this year, and he seems like a better candidate for a 1-2 year deal than the bigger names.

Edit: jinx!

You're worried about injury risk but want to sign Johnny Cueto, who hasn't started 30 games since 2016? I'd be fine with bringing in Cueto on a short deal, but the chances of him making it through the season without missing meaningful time are just about zero.

 

[simplicio]

He also threw more innings this year than anyone on our staff not named Pivetta. But to be clear, I want injury risk guys on short term deals; I think there's a good chance Cueto takes one, and I seriously doubt Eovaldi will.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yeah, Cueto will likely sign a one year deal and then you get the comp pick for Eovaldi. If there were a deal to be had with Nate, I think they would have already done it.

 

[buttons]

I am all for signing Eovaldi for 2-3 years at $12,0000 per year.
Whens he’s good he’s very good.
Especially against the Yankees.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I am all for signing Eovaldi for 2-3 years at $12,0000 per year.
Whens he’s good he’s very good.
Especially against the Yankees.

My suspicion is that there's 3 year deals out there for $18-$20M per year.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

My suspicion is that there's 3 year deals out there for $18-$20M per year.

Most likely. If 2/24 or 3/36 was where his market topped out at, he'd have taken the QO.

 

[grimshaw]

To me Eovaldi is miles beyond any of the other candidates. Maybe you start to pull him sooner with the upgraded pen to try and save some bullets down the line. I'd go 3/60 for him and live with it. They need to stretch at some point. I'm fine with them waiting him out which I think they are doing.

I don't have any interest in the other choices aside from Wacha on something short.

 

[streeter88]

From the original post, these are the only remaining free agents:

(Eovaldi, Kluber, Wacha, Hill, Cueto, Archer and Fujinami)

At this point, I think we should bring back Eovaldi. Anyone else who signs him will be giving up the QO compensation in addition to whatever they pay him, so it seems that should restrict his market a bit. Maybe the holdup is him wanting more years than we want to give him? He seems like a good bet to be a solid starter in the AL East for another couple years and should be healthy to start the season at least, though he'll surely be on the injured list for a few weeks at some point.
He's 17-12, 3.80 in 291 innings over the past 2 years with a 3.36 FIP.
518 innings pitched over the past 4 years, an average of about 130 per season, and that includes the Covid-shortened 2020 when he only threw 58. He's been solid in this market and this division, and said he wanted to come back.
Seems like a reasonable expectation for him for the next couple of seasons would be about 130-140 IP with an ERA around 4.00. That seems like it would be worth it for this team.

This is a miserable remaining selection. I think we have enough injury risks on the staff already without adding Cueto to the list. Dick Mountain is too old. Wacha and Hill already delivered for us last year making it less likely they will perform consistently this year, Kluber and Archer don't seem to have it anymore, and Eovaldi is unclear after injury woes again in 2022. That leaves only Fujunami who we are unsure of coming from Japan, plus Eovaldi or Cueto if the organisation is in a gambling mood.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

This is a miserable remaining selection. I think we have enough injury risks on the staff already without adding Cueto to the list. Dick Mountain is too old. Wacha and Hill already delivered for us last year making it less likely they will perform consistently this year, Kluber and Archer don't seem to have it anymore, and Eovaldi is unclear after injury woes again in 2022. That leaves only Fujunami who we are unsure of coming from Japan, plus Eovaldi or Cueto if the organisation is in a gambling mood.

I don't think it really even leaves Fujinami because imho he's not an MLB starter, at least not right now. In theory he should be cheap enough to essentially be a free option (1/3? 2/5?), but I think if he does catch on anywhere he's best used as a 1-2 inning guy out of the bullpen. Maybe the Rays can teach him to throw strikes again and use him as an opener. But in the Red Sox starting pitching thread, I don't think he belongs in the conversation. Eovaldi or Cueto for me please.

 

[streeter88]

I don't think it really even leaves Fujinami because imho he's not an MLB starter, at least not right now. In theory he should be cheap enough to essentially be a free option (1/3? 2/5?), but I think if he does catch on anywhere he's best used as a 1-2 inning guy out of the bullpen. Maybe the Rays can teach him to throw strikes again and use him as an opener. But in the Red Sox starting pitching thread, I don't think he belongs in the conversation. Eovaldi or Cueto for me please.

Naruhodo. Had little context on Fujinami, so your local insight is invaluable. Thanks for that!

 

[nvalvo]

You're worried about injury risk but want to sign Johnny Cueto, who hasn't started 30 games since 2016? I'd be fine with bringing in Cueto on a short deal, but the chances of him making it through the season without missing meaningful time are just about zero.

Eovaldi has thrown 30 starts… once? (I looked it up. It’s actually twice.)

In any case, Cueto has done so seven times.

Cueto came into the league three years before Eovaldi, but has thrown almost 1000 more IP. He has been *much* more durable. It’s true, he had TJS in 2018, but at least it was his first.

 

[OCD SS]

I don't think it really even leaves Fujinami because imho he's not an MLB starter, at least not right now. In theory he should be cheap enough to essentially be a free option (1/3? 2/5?), but I think if he does catch on anywhere he's best used as a 1-2 inning guy out of the bullpen. Maybe the Rays can teach him to throw strikes again and use him as an opener. But in the Red Sox starting pitching thread, I don't think he belongs in the conversation. Eovaldi or Cueto for me please.

I was a bit worried Fujinami would become Kei Igawa 2.0, sounds like everyone have a better handle on his potential.

Neither Cueto or Eovaldi are great options, at least if they sign Cueto the Sox might get another pick if Eovaldi signs elsewhere… The other possibility is that the QO suppresses Eovaldi’s market enough that he can be signed for cheap rather than having to sit out.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

I don't think it really even leaves Fujinami because imho he's not an MLB starter, at least not right now. In theory he should be cheap enough to essentially be a free option (1/3? 2/5?), but I think if he does catch on anywhere he's best used as a 1-2 inning guy out of the bullpen. Maybe the Rays can teach him to throw strikes again and use him as an opener. But in the Red Sox starting pitching thread, I don't think he belongs in the conversation. Eovaldi or Cueto for me please.

He's not like the other pitchers included on this list, but this team still seems to like to use openers, and he could be a potential opener/swing man who probably won't be very expensive.
I like Cueto too and he is really fun to watch when he is going well, but he seems to be more likely to totally crater than Eovaldi. He is 4 years older than Nate (bad) and probably will only get a one-year deal (could be good).

Here's an article on starters that the Blue Jays are looking at, including Cueto and Kluber. (Also includes a look at John Smiley Wade Miley Drew Smyly, who just re-signed with the Cubs.)
https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/three-starters-blue-jays-should-consider/

Kluber:

After earning $8 million last season, Kluber is one of the more veteran arms left on the open market with a solid track record. Through 164.0 innings last year, the Alabama native pitched to a 4.34 ERA through 31 starts while authoring a league-leading 1.2 BB/9 with a 1.213 WHIP. Kluber sat in the 96th percentile in terms of chase rate last year and while his fastball/sinker/cutter sits in the high-80s, he generated weak contact and held opponents to a .729 OPS.
On a short-term deal, Kluber provides veteran experience within the AL East that provides more stability that White or Kikuchi next season.

Cueto:
The Jays appear to be looking at him as a 5th starter type:

A playoff veteran with a World Series win back in 2015, the Blue Jays have already connected with Cueto this offseason so a potential deal could be on the horizon. Having him slide in as the Jays’ fifth starter would solidify the rotation as one of the deepest in the league and provide the rotation with some additional depth if injuries were to arise.

Here's a list of the pitchers who've signed and the remaining scraps:
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/
In addition to Eovaldi, Cueto, Kluber, Hill, Wacha, etc. there's still Wade Miley (He's the Ace!) Zack Grienke, Mike Minor, Dylan Bundy, Chad Kuhl, Danny Duffy, 2010's Anibal Sanchez(!) Zach Davies, and more!

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It's such an uninspiring list of remaining options, and I can't believe we've backed ourselves into this corner, but here we are. To be clear, I'd prefer Bloom try to monetize some of the prospects for younger starting pitchers with some upside. I'm not going to speculate on whom that would be, but I'd prefer that if it's possible. Now, lets assume it's not because everyone wants young, projectable starting pitching and I don't think Bloom will move the prospects necessary to acquire it, so...

I guess I'll say Micahel Wacha since I think he is the best bet to give 20+ starts of decent performance. He's basically a certain bet to miss something like 8 starts, but I think making 23/24 starts of lets say league average pitching (career ERA+ of 99) but that is a lot more than I personally believe we're going to get from Sale and Paxton. At 30 years old he's still "young enough" that I could squint and seem him being useful for a handful more years, so I'd offer him something around the lines of 3/$36m (Fangraphs pegged him at 2/$20m and I'm assuming it'll cost more than that based on the market).

I guess Wacha, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Pivetta is better than Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Pivetta, Mata so sure, why not.

After that, probably Eovaldi, but really at this point I don't think it matters. We had the money to add a couple of bets to be reasonably healthy and effective and we didn't.

 

[JM3]

This is a miserable remaining selection. I think we have enough injury risks on the staff already without adding Cueto to the list. Dick Mountain is too old. Wacha and Hill already delivered for us last year making it less likely they will perform consistently this year, Kluber and Archer don't seem to have it anymore, and Eovaldi is unclear after injury woes again in 2022. That leaves only Fujunami who we are unsure of coming from Japan, plus Eovaldi or Cueto if the organisation is in a gambling mood.

"They had a good year last year so they will have a bad year this year" combined with "they were bad last year so they will be bad this year" is an interesting way to ensure you will like no one. But agree, everyone kind of sucks.

Is it bad that I kind of want to take a flyer on Joe Ross after looking at that list? It's probably bad. I think he would be a pretty legit 2-3 inning opener-type. He doesn't have enough good pitch variation, but he strikes out a lot of people & should be good in that shorter spurt.

One thing I came across while trying to figure out if he was actually health right now is this crazy trade from 8 years & 1 day ago. In one of AJ Preller's first moves as Padres GM...

• Padres acquired Wil Myers, Ryan Hanigan, Gerardo Reyes and Jose Castillo from the Rays
• Rays acquired Steven Souza and Travis Ott from the Nationals
• Rays acquired Rene Rivera, Burch Smith and Jake Bauers from the Padres
• Nationals acquired Joe Ross & a PTBNL from the Padres

The PTBNL from the Nationals to the Padres turned out to be the Padres 2014 1st round pick, #13 overall...Trea Turner (he was in the trade from the start, but the Padres weren't allowed to make it official until a year after he was drafted).

Anyway, back to my Joe Ross dominant opener theory, the 2021 #s actually totally back up what I was just guessing at:

1st time through the lineup: 2.41 ERA
2nd time through the lineup: 2.81 ERA
3rd time through the lineup: 9.78 ERA

So he could actually serve as like a 4 inning bulk guy after an opener, too.

To get a slightly bigger sample size, here's 2019 (he took the COVID year off):

1st time through the lineup: 2.21 ERA
2nd time through the lineup: 1.04 ERA
3rd time through the lineup: 10.29 ERA

Anyway, he's coming off his 2nd TJ surgery which ended up happening in June 2022, & he's not estimated back until this September...but he's the sort of guy I wouldn't mind throwing some sort of min deal with a couple team options tacked on or something similarly creative.

That was a long post for that conclusion - my bad - assumed he had his surgery earlier when I started this as he missed the whole '22 season, but I guess he was recovering from a partial UCL surgery & then having bone spurs removed in March.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Looking at those Ross ERAs one and two times through the lineup, I really do wonder whether we’ll see a revolution in rotations/staffs in the near future. We’re in the middle of it, with 4-5 inning starts followed by multiple one inning guys. But what if we eliminated 5 inning starters altogether? 3 starter rotations, with 3 pairs of two piggybacked 3 inning guys (6 innings total), and the rest of the staff be 1+ inning guys. Those paired guys would basically throw 6 innings a week, times 26 weeks… No one would throw more than 160 innings in a year. No one would see the lineup a third time.

Seeing how kids pitch in traveling ball, with shorter but more frequent stints during weekend tournaments, I’m not sure that the 100 pitch every 5 days model is best or needs to continue. 50-60 pitches every 3-4 days might make more sense. A team that jumped on that early, with a bunch of Ross-profile types, could put together a cheap staff that gets to throw more max effort innings with less exposure.

As an example, think of Whitlock/Houck giving you 6 combined innings 50+ games a year….

 

[JM3]

Looking at those Ross ERAs one and two times through the lineup, I really do wonder whether we’ll see a revolution in rotations/staffs in the near future. We’re in the middle of it, with 4-5 inning starts followed by multiple one inning guys. But what if we eliminated 5 inning starters altogether? 3 starter rotations, with 3 pairs of two piggybacked 3 inning guys (6 innings total), and the rest of the staff be 1+ inning guys. Those paired guys would basically throw 6 innings a week, times 26 weeks… No one would throw more than 160 innings in a year. No one would see the lineup a third time.

Seeing how kids pitch in traveling ball, with shorter but more frequent stints during weekend tournaments, I’m not sure that the 100 pitch every 5 days model is best or needs to continue. 50-60 pitches every 3 days might make more sense. A team that jumped on that early, with a bunch of Ross-profile types, could put together a cheap staff that gets to throw more max effort innings with less exposure.

I think that's where the game is eventually headed. The Rays pulling Blake Snell in game 6 against the Dodgers in 2020 after 73 dominant pitches was really the aha moment on that one for me.

In the meantime it's a matter of trying to figure out the roster churn on how to make that work for a whole staff/26-man/40-man roster.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I think that's where the game is eventually headed. The Rays pulling Blake Snell in game 6 against the Dodgers in 2020 after 73 dominant pitches was really the aha moment on that one for me.

In the meantime it's a matter of trying to figure out the roster churn on how to make that work for a whole staff/26-man/40-man roster.

I've been trying to emphasize to my father that pitch counts are no longer relevant. Especially in the playoffs.

 

[The_Dali]

I think that's where the game is eventually headed. The Rays pulling Blake Snell in game 6 against the Dodgers in 2020 after 73 dominant pitches was really the aha moment on that one for me.

In the meantime it's a matter of trying to figure out the roster churn on how to make that work for a whole staff/26-man/40-man roster.

Couldn’t it actually work in the current context? Instead of needing 5 days between work you get 4-6 guys who pitch 3-4 innings 3-4 days a week? It is an interesting concept.

(I’ll admit I would miss the draw of marquee pitching matchups)

 

[jon abbey]

you get 4-6 guys who pitch 3-4 innings 3-4 days a week?

No one can physically do this, three quarters of your staff would be broken by June. 3-4 innings is a long enough outing that basically anyone who does it gets 3 days off after that. Maybe if you have a staff of all knuckleball pitchers?

 

[JM3]

No one can physically do this, three quarters of your staff would be broken by June. 3-4 innings is a long enough outing that basically anyone who does it gets 3 days off after that. Maybe if you have a staff of all knuckleball pitchers?

There's a reason the Rays ran through like 38 pitchers last year.