Let's Predict the 2024 Red Sox Season

How Many Games Will the Red Sox Win in 2024


  • Total voters
    396
  • Poll closed .

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,868
Giolito - done for the year
Pivetta - on the IL
Whitlock - came out of the game last night due to injury
Devers - came out of the game last night due to injury
Story - done for the year

It's just April 17, folks. You can't make this stuff up. LOL
 

Bigdogx

New Member
Jul 21, 2020
179
Giolito - done for the year
Pivetta - on the IL
Whitlock - came out of the game last night due to injury
Devers - came out of the game last night due to injury
Story - done for the year

It's just April 17, folks. You can't make this stuff up. LOL
This team literally has no depth either, this is basically a triple A club right now imo.
 

Quatchie

New Member
Jul 23, 2009
83
Negative Nellys are their own reward. To themselves at least.
This is disingenuous. The franchise is not in a good place and their decision making has not shown they are doing anything positive. Being upset about that and calling it out does not make anyone negative-it is realistic. Being positive is noble but it doesn't make anyone a better fan. I'm as big of a Sox fan as there is. I just hate what has been done to the franchise and until they fix it they should be held accountable by the fan base.
 

Quatchie

New Member
Jul 23, 2009
83
Well, I didn't think I'd have to spell it out, but maybe I do.

No, nobody gets any kind of reaffirming "credit" for equating a random injury to their prediction that player would be traded by the ASB.
Its humor. Nothing more and nothing less. Who would ever say that seriously.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,864
Miami (oh, Miami!)
This is disingenuous. The franchise is not in a good place and their decision making has not shown they are doing anything positive. Being upset about that and calling it out does not make anyone negative-it is realistic. Being positive is noble but it doesn't make anyone a better fan. I'm as big of a Sox fan as there is. I just hate what has been done to the franchise and until they fix it they should be held accountable by the fan base.
That may be, but this is not the thread to have that conversation in.

Its humor. Nothing more and nothing less. Who would ever say that seriously.
Again, whether you think yourself a humorist or realist or an upset person, you should take your franchise decision-making conversations to any number of threads that are already discussing that, including the monthly one.

If you have comments that go to projecting/predicting what the team will do, have at it.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,868
Giolito - done for the year
Pivetta - on the IL
Whitlock - came out of the game last night due to injury
Devers - came out of the game last night due to injury
Story - done for the year

It's just April 17, folks. You can't make this stuff up. LOL
And I totally forgot to mention O’Neill out with concussion symptoms. LOL
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,864
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Tonight the Sox face Chris Sale, so I thought I'd bump this thread as one of the tie-breaker questions is:

-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024?

Nobody's taken on the task of harvesting and totaling the individual answers yet, so I can't present a spread. But there's a range from 0 to 7 on the first page of responses alone.


***

In other news the Sox, despite massive injuries, currently have a .528 winning percentage. That'd result in 85 or 86 wins, likely short of a WC spot. Not that it means much this early on. On July 28 last year the Sox had a .544 WP - that would have put them neck and neck with TOR for the final wild card spot.

(TOR finished with a .548 WP, 89 wins total. But a .544 Sox team would likely have given the Jays an extra loss or two between July and September instead of going 0-6 as they did.)
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Tonight the Sox face Chris Sale, so I thought I'd bump this thread as one of the tie-breaker questions is:

-Total number of runs (earned or not) the Sox score off Chris Sale in 2024?

Nobody's taken on the task of harvesting and totaling the individual answers yet, so I can't present a spread. But there's a range from 0 to 7 on the first page of responses alone.


***

In other news the Sox, despite massive injuries, currently have a .528 winning percentage. That'd result in 85 or 86 wins, likely short of a WC spot. Not that it means much this early on. On July 28 last year the Sox had a .544 WP - that would have put them neck and neck with TOR for the final wild card spot.

(TOR finished with a .548 WP, 89 wins total. But a .544 Sox team would likely have given the Jays an extra loss or two between July and September instead of going 0-6 as they did.)
Weirdly they are now FOUR wins below their expected W-L, and the ESPN power index has them seventh overall, thanks to a fifth hardest schedule in MLB to date. So if they regress to their XW-L mean, they will pick up well beyond the .544 last year. And they will presumably face opponents around or below .500 going forward, although the bottom of the standings is all outside the AL East so it won't ever get to just average.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
24,864
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Weirdly they are now FOUR wins below their expected W-L, and the ESPN power index has them seventh overall, thanks to a fifth hardest schedule in MLB to date. So if they regress to their XW-L mean, they will pick up well beyond the .544 last year. And they will presumably face opponents around or below .500 going forward, although the bottom of the standings is all outside the AL East so it won't ever get to just average.
I imagine if people believed that the Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Bello rotation could be this good, the predictions would have trended upward. But I suspect that most predictors were working off the 2022-23 numbers as a baseline, and expecting them to perhaps trend positively a bit, or on the whole even out as some guys stepped forward and others regressed..

(Bailey may be very very good at his job, but this year is also making Dave Bush look like a complete and absolute disaster.)
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
I imagine if people believed that the Pivetta/Crawford/Houck/Bello rotation could be this good, the predictions would have trended upward. But I suspect that most predictors were working off the 2022-23 numbers as a baseline, and expecting them to perhaps trend positively a bit, or on the whole even out as some guys stepped forward and others regressed..

(Bailey may be very very good at his job, but this year is also making Dave Bush look like a complete and absolute disaster.)
The Athletic has a good article today (paywall) about some of the inner workings. Gist of it is that the past regime was too scattered and inconsistent in its approach and messages to pitchers. Current one simplifying stuff. But they did have some complimentary things to say about some of the really technical stuff happening now that was already in place. Not a total loss, and not all about Bush either.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,759
Rogers Park
The Athletic has a good article today (paywall) about some of the inner workings. Gist of it is that the past regime was too scattered and inconsistent in its approach and messages to pitchers. Current one simplifying stuff. But they did have some complimentary things to say about some of the really technical stuff happening now that was already in place. Not a total loss, and not all about Bush either.
Yeah, the McCaffrey article you mentioned (link) helped crystalize some of how I felt about the Bloom regime. Namely, I thought they were really close. We saw things like Jeffrey Springs sucking here and then going to Tampa and thriving (until he got hurt, anyway). That, to me, suggests that they had figured out some important things that allowed them to target the right pitchers to bring in, but hadn't figured out enough to know how to get the most out of those pitchers once they had them in house.

And in retrospect, that's a recipe for the quick turnaround we've seen in the pitching: they already had guys here with traits that suggested success. For whatever reason, they just weren't getting as much out of them as they could. I think the best example is probably Kutter Crawford: they recognized that a pitcher in their system had come back from TJS with a top-10 IVB fastball, and that that was an important trait in the post–Spider-Tack era that meant they should stick with him even if he didn't really have a starter's build, his minor league stats did not exactly scream "ace," the early returns in MLB were awful, and his velocity was nothing special. They were right about a really important and counterintuitive thing, and they seem to have understood this by like 2021!

There turned out to be a bit more to it than that. I suspect that they would have gotten there; these are smart people we're talking about, and it's not like the Giants or the Cubs can figure something out on pitching and keep it secret for long. But it is admittedly quicker to just hire the people who have already put the pieces together in another org.