Yup. I'd guess our offer was in the 4/$80m–5/$90m range, and he (as is his right) prefers the 2/$50m. Damn.
Let's Lay Off That Throttle
- Thread starter soxhop411
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They had a couple guys to pick from. They picked one. His elbow started barking. That's your white flag? I get that people wanted them to bring in a bunch of big names, but it's not the only way to win games.
They didn't bring ANY big name. Hell Montgomery isn't a big name. Their rotation was a disaster last year and this year has less talent. There is no defense here: to win games you need decent starting pitching. You can get that from trades or from FA. The Red Sox did neither.
Let’s just see what happens. Spring training doesn’t matter, but the results were good- if Bailey and Breslow are really as good as many think, then this team could be competitive. I think we will know pretty early on.
It is what it is; I get the frustration regarding ownership but none of it is the fault of the front office or players on the field. What’s done is done, might as well hope for the best at this point.
If this team is as bad as some think, it would have been bad with Jordan Montgomery too.
It is what it is; I get the frustration regarding ownership but none of it is the fault of the front office or players on the field. What’s done is done, might as well hope for the best at this point.
If this team is as bad as some think, it would have been bad with Jordan Montgomery too.
I agree. I'm just saying that I reject the "we want to give Whit and Houck some runway" as a reason to not sign Monty because if that was the case, they wouldn't have signed Giolito.
Giolitto reads as a response to them knowing they were out on Yamamotto: get the player they think has upside before and who will sign without an interminable waiting game before Yamamoto makes a final decision and the market tightens...
They're still paying him this year, so I don't know how much more starkly the budget limitations Breslow is working under can be drawn.
because they saw how good he can potentially be based on track record, last season not included. His ceiling is much higher than Montgomerys. It just so happened that he got hurt. Count up the Cy Young votes in their respective careers, and look at which one is two years younger.
Well, there is the chance that Breslow just doesn't think much of Montgomery, especially with all the innings he put on his arm last season.
Cross posting from the Montgomery thread:
For what Monty's 2023 numbers were, punctuated by a WS win and no draft compensation, this is absurdly low. For a guy who's had almost no rumors about interested teams and offers leaking out I have to wonder if his medicals are so bad that almost every other team passed on him worrying that he would somehow take out other players around him when his arm finally exploded.
The bottom line is that on the surface there's no reason the Sox couldn't have beaten this offer. If we had all learned that this team signed Monty for $75M over 3 years, everyone would've been ecstatic. This offer doesn't even give a cushion of "opting in" to a deal if he has a bad year or is hurt.
If it comes out that the Sox had an actual offer on the table that was higher, then great, he never really wanted to come here. But until that info is our there then that is just speculation that is deflecting responsibility from Red Sox ownership who has set short term profit above competition.
For what Monty's 2023 numbers were, punctuated by a WS win and no draft compensation, this is absurdly low. For a guy who's had almost no rumors about interested teams and offers leaking out I have to wonder if his medicals are so bad that almost every other team passed on him worrying that he would somehow take out other players around him when his arm finally exploded.
The bottom line is that on the surface there's no reason the Sox couldn't have beaten this offer. If we had all learned that this team signed Monty for $75M over 3 years, everyone would've been ecstatic. This offer doesn't even give a cushion of "opting in" to a deal if he has a bad year or is hurt.
If it comes out that the Sox had an actual offer on the table that was higher, then great, he never really wanted to come here. But until that info is our there then that is just speculation that is deflecting responsibility from Red Sox ownership who has set short term profit above competition.
Good point. Definitely possible. There were reports that they were keeping tabs on him, but maybe they were BS.
Monty was pretty clearly way more expensive back when we signed Giolito though.
Then what the heck did he think of Giolito then? Didn’t they pitch somewhat comparable innings (184 vs 188) with JM doing so much better?
He’s trying to substantiate his theory that Henry set a strict low budget for 2024 when he doesn’t really have the information firm.
Maybe it’s true, who knows. But I think Breslow, Bailey and Boddy prefer Houck, Whitlock and Crawford and, beyond a certain $, probably factored the opportunity cost of banishing one of them to the pen.
Probably means our big money commitments are coming later, on players better than Jordan Montgomery, but that’s an argument for next winter.
31 additional high stress innings and an extra month in the post-season.
I have no idea if this is accurate, but it's a theory.
In total we’re talking about ~220 IP of pretty good baseball compared to 184 IP of ‘meh’.
I wish the Sox had signed him to this deal, because I like the player, so I am a bit unhappy about this and my initial reaction was to declare "FUCK", but as I posted in another thread, Kutter Crawford from age 25-27 is essentially the same pitcher as Jordan Montgomery was from 24-27 according to stats like FIP, HR/9, K:BB, K%, and BB%. His ERA trails by a bit, but he has also spent that entire time in from of a Red Sox defense that has ranged from "meh" to "I have to close my eyes every time a ball is in play because they are the worst defensive team of the Statcast era".
Again, I would have LOVED Montgomery on this deal for this team, but I also think that the front office thinks much more highly of the current starting pitchers on the team and in the organization than many here do, and that probably played a lot into this.
At the end of the day, I still really like the team they are going to put on the field on Thursday and am looking forward to this particular adventure being over.
Again, I would have LOVED Montgomery on this deal for this team, but I also think that the front office thinks much more highly of the current starting pitchers on the team and in the organization than many here do, and that probably played a lot into this.
At the end of the day, I still really like the team they are going to put on the field on Thursday and am looking forward to this particular adventure being over.
Depth for sure. If you could have one of Whitlock or Houck in the pen, all the better.
I don't get the all-is-lost crowd. Pitchers change a lot from year to year. If you wanted them to sign Yamamoto or else forget it, well, not sure what to tell you, but the other options seemed to all come with their share of pros and cons. They do need another starter IMO but again, that was Giolito's job. A second big-bucks one-year guy, without being able to build around him long term, is admittedly a pretty weird fit. I wanted them to get Monty but let's see where things go.
Why was the opportunity cost of banishing one of them to the pen not a factor when they signed Giolito?
This deal would not preclude them for big money commitments coming later on players better than JM.
The apparent lack of interest here is in fact a clear indication that there is a set budget, well below the tax threshold.
We keep hearing they are trying to extend guys. Maybe that $25m is set aside for possible signing bonuses. I too don't buy the idea that they are stuck on a spending limit no matter what, but that they are being pretty picky about how they use their money.
This is the worst offseason I can remember. Perhaps the worst since 1986-87. The only silver lining is getting Bailey.
I can't really find much information on it but I'm speculating that Jordan Montgomery is a very conservative Southern guy and liberal Boston wasn't really his thing. He is from a small town in South Carolina and so is his wife. Perhaps the Red Sox made a reasonable offer and he chose Arizona based on where he feels more comfortable.
Facts not in evidence. People are so wrapped up in what the Sox didn't get, they're missing what they have. There is a shitload of talent there. It's depth, experience, and health that make up the biggest question marks.
What makes you think he signs the same deal here? Maybe if he hadn't had options, but AZ has half the state tax rate as MA, and the team he signed with was just in the World Series. Better weather, less bullshit from the media, and a hell of a fun division to be part of.
We've also had some discussions about places that would benefit Monty due to park factors, as he is betting on himself in a big way, and Chase Field, and most of the NL west parks are much more pitcher friendly than Fenway and most AL East parks. Not saying it's a deciding factor, but there's more than just dollars this year at play.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
Because they hadn't yet shown then what they've shown now?
Are you just going to jump into every thread with this? We heard you the first time. You know who had great offseasons last year? The Padres and the Mets. How are they liking them offseason trophies? And I'm pretty confident Bailey is going to pay huge dividends, so that's not nothing.
This offseason sucked. It is undeniable. The season still holds promise, and I can't fucking wait until Thursday night.
It. Is. ON.
Please try to avoid speculative fiction. If you're going to try to make points like this, have something to back it up with
It's also dangerously close to the no politics line, so it's
I'm usually pretty optimistic so don't think I've ever come into a thread with "this".
Not in the rotation there isn't. Your statement lacks a foundation. One guy was demoted to the bullpen (Pivetta), one guy hasn't made it through a season yet (Whitlock), and one guy can't go through an order 3 times.
What they actually have is not "a shitload of talent". Your statement would be stricken from the record in a heartbeat.
I love your optimism here but JM's 25-27 years were 6 starts then miss two seasons, then the Covid year. I don't think it's an apt comparison.
He would have helped, sucks that we couldn't get him.
I’m so confused. We won’t sign pitchers over 30 to long term deals. Now we won’t sign pitchers over 30 to short term deals?
I know, it’s a parade of rationalizations. Montgomery isn’t all that good really, and the guys who flopped last season are clearly going to crush it this season, and we can’t sign Cassas in 2 years if something something.
All I know is that last years rotation was a mess. And we subtracted from it.
I know, it’s a parade of rationalizations. Montgomery isn’t all that good really, and the guys who flopped last season are clearly going to crush it this season, and we can’t sign Cassas in 2 years if something something.
All I know is that last years rotation was a mess. And we subtracted from it.
Kutter’s dominance out of the pen is also kind of skewing things a bit, no? He’s got a 5+ career ERA and less than five innings per as a starter. Good to be hopeful and there’s some things to be excited about, esp with a better defense…but the rotation hasn’t added anyone; while it subtracted Sale and Paxton, so it think it’s fair to say it has less talent than last year.
I know you’re the optimism guy now, and I guess that’s admirable. But “shitload of talent”? I mean we’re talking about the non-Bello starters that all had major breakdowns last season in one form or another, right?
And when I asked the other day what our SP depth was, Chase freakin’ Anderson was the top answer.
It’s not good, man. Not good.
I agree with your second sentence.
I would also add that Crawford's 27 year old season was in front of like the 3rd worst defense by OAA in the Statcast era. I am excited to see what we get from him this year, and while I don't like missing out on Montgomery, and was prepared for this reaction across the board, I really don't think that not signing him is the end of the world.
Except for at 9:28 this evening.
https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jordan-montgomery-signs-with-arizona.42161/post-6040877
It's no biggie, I get the frustration, but repetitive pissing and moaning is frustrating to readers too.
For 2024, it is the difference between Whitlock (and our other 5th starters) and Montgomery, plus the difference between Chase Anderson (and our other 13th men) and bullpen Whitlock. We can try to assess that at years end.
Hard to believe 3/72 with the opt outs doesnt get this done.
But I am sure the 20Mplus not spent this year will be added to next years budget.
Hard to believe 3/72 with the opt outs doesnt get this done.
But I am sure the 20Mplus not spent this year will be added to next years budget.
It’s clearly not the end of the world. It’s just reinforcement that this FO has punted on this season before it even began. I guess we’ve all known that, but it’s a bummer to be reminded of it yet again.
Oh, I dIdn't realize I double posted. I will change the first one.
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I wouldn't go so far as to say "we have all known that", but clearly many of you have.
I really haven’t wanted to believe it. But it’s pretty hard not to come to that conclusion.
Breslow’s been telling us. I guess I’m finally listening.
I didn't - I have to say I am stunned. The Red Sox are just slightly above average in payroll (13th according to Cots).
Oh well in 48 hours the season starts and I can forget all of the nonsense of the offseason.
For me the appeal of Montgomery (especially for this team) was never just the stats, it was the stats combined with the innings. He came out of the gate with 29 starts his first MLB season and then did even better the last 3 years. Pivetta is the only guy we have who's done that. Maybe Bello can get there this year, maybe even Crawford can make that jump. I just really wish our current rotation was plan C instead of B.
You build a team based on what your players can do now and in the future, not what they've done in the past. You never know when someone is going to put it all together (or when it's all going to fall apart after they have). Red Sox management are betting they're going to be much better going forward than they have been to this point. We'll see if they're right. Fenway is going to look very empty if they're not.
No, I'm not the "optimism guy". I'm just the "sky is not falling" guy.
I stand by the talent comment. They need to keep developing a lot of it, and hope for better injury luck, and maybe that one of them doesn't take a line drive off the face. And if someone told you Anderson was our starter depth, they're full of shit. Our starter depth is Criswell, Winck, and Anderson is at best 8th on the depth chart. And yeah, things aren't great, but if things are as bad as you and countless others say, Monty wouldn't have moved the needle this year anyway.
In any case I'm done in here, fuck this offseason with a rusty garden rake. Let's play ball and see what the boys can do.