LaMelo Ball: Future Star?

[mauf]

John Hollinger makes the case that Ball’s performance as a teenage rookie puts him in rarefied air that, with rare exceptions, results in a career that produces multiple All-Star appearances at a minimum.

https://theathletic.com/2378012/2021/02/11/nba-lamelo-ball-keeping-historic-company-with-lebron-kyrie-kobe-kg/

In the 3-point era, we’ve only had 10 teenagers play at least 500 minutes, post a PER of at least 15.0 and a BPM of at least 1.0 — a basic baseline of “Hey, this guy is pretty good.” Ball is on track to become the 11th, with advanced metrics that clear my cutoff by a mile.... Of the other 10, nine made multiple All-Star teams, and Zion Williamson will probably make it 10 at some point. Several are first-ballot Hall of Famers. And unlike Ball, three of them were in their second season (LeBron James, Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady).

LaMelo is averaging 21/7/6 in 8 games since being inserted in the starting lineup. The Hornets are 4-4 in those games, and LaMelo’s plus-minus is in positive territory (2.9). Advanced metrics like his defense.

Obviously, these numbers don’t account for LaMelo hitting the rookie wall. He’s not going to average 21/7/6 the rest of the way. But there’s something extraordinary happening in Charlotte.

I know I was rooting for the Ball family to fade from the scene, with Lonzo settling into a steady but unspectacular career as a role player and LiAngelo’s 15 minutes seemingly up, but I guess that’s not going to happen.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Minnesota is really going to regret this one, methinks.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Minnesota is really going to regret this one, methinks.

Maybe GS, too — though I’m still super high on the future of Wiseman. Plus LaMelo and Wiseman will always be apples and oranges, where Edwards/Ball are more similar. Edwards has shown some flashes of freakish potential, too, but doesn’t seem to fill up the boxscore like LaMelo.

I think Haliburton is still in the conversation for best player in the draft, too. Less impressive numbers than LaMelo by volume but a much better shooter, with a better ast/tov ratio. Over a year older than LaMelo, but still not yet 21.

What LaMelo is doing at 19 is absolutely incredible, tho. Mike Schmitz definitely nailed it with this one.

And then there’s the Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, who at some point is gonna have to answer for Killian Hayes at #1.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

LaMelo has made the Hornets must-watch-tv all season. We’ll see how success, money, and the annual season grind affects him but for now the effort and passion he plays with is something to behold.

And Yes, he can shoot.....like really really well. It’s similar to his brother in that once he/they improve their shot selection they will become much more efficient.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

And Yes, he can shoot.....like really really well. It’s similar to his brother in that once he/they improve their shot selection they will become much more efficient.

But dissimilar to his brother in that Lonzo shot .451, .417, and .566 from the stripe his first three seasons where LaMelo as a young whelp is already at .797. Definitely a great omen for his shooting potential.

I do think Haliburton is a cut above as a shooter, though his mechanics may be just as funky. His numbers at Iowa State and in the early going on the pros suggest a potentially elite shooter. His issue will never be shot selection (which is preternaturally good for a player that young) but the opposite: creating more shots off the dribble and letting it launch more.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

But dissimilar to his brother in that Lonzo shot .451, .417, and .566 from the stripe his first three seasons where LaMelo as a young whelp is already at .797. Definitely a great omen for his shooting potential.

I do think Haliburton is a cut above as a shooter, though his mechanics may be just as funky. His numbers at Iowa State and in the early going on the pros suggest a potentially elite shooter. His issue will never be shot selection (which is preternaturally good for a player that young) but the opposite: creating the shot off the dribble and letting it launch more.

He also gets to the line a lot more than Lonzo, and I'm guessing that gap will only grow as rookies normally don't get calls. LaMelo is at 69 FTA this year in 28 games. Lonzo's career high is 76 in in 63 games last year.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

He also gets to the line a lot more than Lonzo, and I'm guessing that gap will only grow as rookies normally don't get calls. LaMelo is at 69 FTA this year in 28 games. Lonzo's career high is 76 in in 63 games last year.

Ha yeah, Lonzo’s FT shooting is like that old Groucho Marx / Woody Allen joke about the two Jewish ladies at the deli: “The food at this place is terrible!” “I know — and such small portions!”

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It's funny how one player can change a teams outlook so much. We were all giving Hayward grief for going to Charlotte but they'll have over $30 mil in practical cap space this off season. They may keep Monk and Graham but I'm not sure how "holds" really work and how that would effect the practical cap space. Honestly, I'm not even sure they'd want to keep Graham but Monk has been showing flashes of late. I wanted the C's to target him this past offseason as a buy low target but that was probably never a thing.

It would be quite the story but Lonzo to/signing with Charlotte would make sense. If he's hitting 37% of his 3 pointers at heavy volume, he's pretty much superior to Graham in every way besides FT% and FTA. He's also improved quite a bit as a FT shooter, though I doubt he's as good as the .720 he's shooting this year. His sample sizes are so small.

And none of what I said would even matter if it weren't for LaMelo Ball. He has basically the same exact rate stats as Luka Doncic in his rookie season while being much more efficient even though Doncic got to the line at a much higher rate. He's 5 months younger than Doncic was too.

I guess I'll just say it even though I'm not totally sure I buy it, LaMelo Ball will be better than Luka. Incredibly hot take. If Luka turns into a 40% 3 point shooter, that changes.

 

[TripleOT]

I’ve been driving the LaMelo train for a while, and try to watch Charlotte any chance I get. Melo makes his teammates better, especially the bigs who can rim run. He’s the best passing rookie to come into the league since Jason Kidd.

He’s a 21st century Pistol Pete, all the way down to the overbearing father. It’s not played up much, but LaMelo separated from his father’s influence when he joined up with his personal skills trainer/manager Jermaine Jackson, which shows me that this Ball brother is solid in the decision making department.

Ball could shortly become a nightly triple double threat, with better shooting and defense than Russell Westbrook. His shooting form is funky, but he has great extension, and needs very little lower body to make long threes.

21/7/6 as a starter in 8 games, shooting 44/44/90% at age 19.5.

 

[OnTheBlack]

So I’ve heard he’s better than Doncic, Westbrook and Pistol Pete? Best vision since Kidd? He’s better than I thought he was, but he’s started 8 games.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

So I’ve heard he’s better than Doncic, Westbrook and Pistol Pete? Best vision since Kidd? He’s better than I thought he was, but he’s started 8 games.

Yeah, but he's played a total of 28!! It was a hot take and I'm pretty sure TripleOT just jumping on the band wagon. There's still a lot of room. Jump on. It's fun to hype these guys and dream on their best case scenarios because he's already really, really good at 19 1/2.

 

[Kliq]

I was definitely wrong about LaMelo, he has been simply incredible.

Not sure if I'd put him over Luka though. Does anyone actually think Luka is a bad shooter? Feel like his percentage from three is just weighed down by volume.

 

[TripleOT]

Yeah, but he's played a total of 28!! It was a hot take and I'm pretty sure TripleOT just jumping on the band wagon. There's still a lot of room. Jump on. It's fun to hype these guys and dream on their best case scenarios because he's already really, really good at 19 1/2.

I’ve been on that bandwagon probably before anyone else on SoSH.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I’ve been on that bandwagon probably before anyone else on SoSH.

Better than Luka? I mean, it's probably not even that far fetched but it would have been before he played some games. A lot of SoSH loled at the pick.

 

[OnTheBlack]

Yeah, but he's played a total of 28!! It was a hot take and I'm pretty sure TripleOT just jumping on the band wagon. There's still a lot of room. Jump on. It's fun to hype these guys and dream on their best case scenarios because he's already really, really good at 19 1/2.

I think what is upside is from here is interesting to think about. He’s already pretty polished from a skill perspective and has great vision and that’s normally where the upside is, as athleticism doesn’t increase significantly.

 

[mauf]

I was definitely wrong about LaMelo, he has been simply incredible.

Not sure if I'd put him over Luka though. Does anyone actually think Luka is a bad shooter? Feel like his percentage from three is just weighed down by volume.

Luka’s shooting issues are overstated. No one leaves him open, and the Mavs’ offense runs through him, so of course his 3FG% isn’t awesome. If your life depended on correctly picking the winner of a game of “horse” between Luka and LaMelo, you’d be a fool not to pick Luka.

Luka is not a great defender, however, so if LaMelo ends up being reasonably close to Luka offensively, he’ll be the better player overall. (To be clear, LaMelo has a long way to go before he’s in the same area code as Luka offensively, and Luka is still improving.)

 

[TripleOT]

Better than Luka? I mean, it's probably not even that far fetched but it would have been before he played some games. A lot of SoSH loled at the pick.

I haven’t placed him ahead of Luka. I think he’s going to be a special player, and could be a worthy adversary to Luka.

 

[TripleOT]

Interesting breakdown on LaMelo’s game

View: https://youtu.be/8e65TBf5G1E

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So I’ve heard he’s better than Doncic, Westbrook and Pistol Pete? Best vision since Kidd? He’s better than I thought he was, but he’s started 8 games.

I agree that his court vision is the best that the league has seen since Kidd no matter how many games he’s played. The other stuff will take some time.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Luka’s shooting issues are overstated. No one leaves him open, and the Mavs’ offense runs through him, so of course his 3FG% isn’t awesome. If your life depended on correctly picking the winner of a game of “horse” between Luka and LaMelo, you’d be a fool not to pick Luka.

I don’t really think they are overstated. I do think that this weakness in his game is masked by everything else he does at an elite level. I brought this up pre-draft when he shot 30% from 3 in Europe without having to rush/alter his shot against NBA length and close-out defenders. He’s at 32% for his career which.....is bad. If he wasn’t able to do all the other incredible things he does the only thing people would talk about is his 32% 3-point shooting......but because he’s elite at everything else offensively it can be brushed aside.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I don’t really think they are overstated. I do think that this weakness in his game is masked by everything else he does at an elite level. I brought this up pre-draft when he shot 30% from 3 in Europe without having to rush/alter his shot against NBA length and close-out defenders. He’s at 32% for his career which.....is bad. If he wasn’t able to do all the other incredible things he does the only thing people would talk about is his 32% 3-point shooting......but because he’s elite at everything else offensively it can be brushed aside.

Yeah, and that rationale doesn't really work either considering the company he's trying to keep, as the same can be said for all elite initiators- no one leaves Dame/Harden/Steph/Trae/Booker/Beal open either, and the offense run through them, but none of them are on par with Marcus Smart from deep. It's a relative weakness right now, though he's trending in the right direction- 3pt% up to 33.5, and FT up to 79.5- and I expect he'll continue to improve.

Speaking of offensive geniuses, I've been really impressed with Harden's playmaking now that he's out of that pound-the-ball-into-the-ground iso system. He's a really smart decision-maker who's incredibly skilled with the ball, and he's in total control of the offense, breaking down defenses and getting the ball to his guys' spots. He already has great chemistry with Joe Harris. It's just a matter of my aesthetic preferences, but I find him a lot more enjoyable to watch now, even though I'm rooting against him and that team.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, and that rationale doesn't really work either considering the company he's trying to keep, as the same can be said for all elite initiators- no one leaves Dame/Harden/Steph/Trae/Booker/Beal open either, and the offense run through them, but none of them are on par with Marcus Smart from deep. It's a relative weakness right now, though he's trending in the right direction- 3pt% up to 33.5, and FT up to 79.5- and I expect he'll continue to improve.

Speaking of offensive geniuses, I've been really impressed with Harden's playmaking now that he's out of that pound-the-ball-into-the-ground iso system. He's a really smart decision-maker who's incredibly skilled with the ball, and he's in total control of the offense, breaking down defenses and getting the ball to his guys' spots. He already has great chemistry with Joe Harris. It's just a matter of my aesthetic preferences, but I find him a lot more enjoyable to watch now, even though I'm rooting against him and that team.

I came around on Harden in last year’s playoffs. And what's he's doing now is even more impressive.

This is like worst case scenario in Brooklyn. My hope was that these guys would bicker over the ball and their roles. Seems more like the 07-08 Celtics right now. If they all accept complementary roles and play off each others' strengths, you can put them in the finals now IMO.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Returns to practice on Thursday.

 

[TripleOT]

27/6/6 for LaMelo as he shakes off the rust after being sidelined with the hand issue. 0-7 from three, but makes 11 baskets inside the paint off drives, plus six assists all off drives where he got into the paint before dishing.

View: https://youtu.be/IeMNrAdskFI