Kelly's heroes

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Just starting individual starting pitching threads.... and after what looked like another great start for one of the 5 I'm in pretty good spirits.  Kelly went 7 with just one hit allowed, walked two and K'ed 8.  Sign of how shitty and exhausted the Yankees are after last nights marathon?  Any pitch f/x stuff and commentary on his outing is great.  I never get a chance to actually watch a game anymore so reading comments on my phone is how I keep up now.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgeIINs1TrQ
 

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I missed the game, but I have to ask: is the Bidet Nouveau equipment on the blink, or was he really touching 98-99 today? 
 
Also, was his slider as filthy as the numbers seem to suggest?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Effortless delivery... if he's got that much velocity with that easy delivery, he could be another dominant starter!  Watched some highlights here:  (second clip)   http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?c_id=bos&gid=2015_04_11_bosmlb_nyamlb_1&lang=en&content_id=68827083&mode=video
 
He's got some great late movement on that slider- batters just weakly diving away at it.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I think the gun is juiced a bit everyone seems a couple miles and hour fast but I'll leave the analysis on that to Jnai and Sprowl.
 
His slider was filthy but his two seamer was even better I thought, 95/96 on the gun(for what that is worth) with really nice run.

 

[InsideTheParker]

I missed the game, but I have to ask: is the Bidet Nouveau equipment on the blink, or was he really touching 98-99 today? 
 
Also, was his slider as filthy as the numbers seem to suggest?

Bidet? Non. One does things in a toilet one would never do in a bidet. You want "toilette." Sometimes people use the term "cabinet."
Kelly was nasty today. 

 

[EricFeczko]

I don't think anyone can argue that Kelly has tremendous velocity. The question is whether he can develop command and control. I think the reason he's been so underrated by scouts is because he didn't really start pitching until college, and didn't really start until the Cardinals converted him from a closer into a starter.

Literally, he's been a starting pitcher for about 5 years of his life.

"Bidet"? "Toilette?"

Well la di da mister french man.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Naked eye test says the gun is definitely juiced, probably a little more than 3 mph.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

Singleton actually made a good point today (I know, shocking), Kelly had very good command with his fastball on the outside corner to righties but struggled to throw his fastball in or in off the plate effectively. Maybe something to watch going forward

 

[Comebacker to Foulke]

The Toilet's gun had Miley at 93-94 with his 4-seamer on the YES feed highlights I saw, so their gun would seem a bit "hot", you would have to think.

I mean, I hope it's accurate. But Wade came advertised with 90-91, IIRC.

 

[Jnai]

I missed the game, but I have to ask: is the Bidet Nouveau equipment on the blink, or was he really touching 98-99 today? 
 
Also, was his slider as filthy as the numbers seem to suggest?

Our velo numbers are from 55ft,which is closer to pitcher release point. So, everyone is slightly juiced relative to the TV.

 

[DJnVa]

I didn't see any of his comments. Did he say anything about that second inning? Jones, Murphy, and Gregorious saw 13 pitches, 10 of them balls. Thank God Gregorious swung on the 2-0 count.
 
For the game Kelly had 58 strikes, and 35 balls, but outside those 3 guys he was 55/25.
 
His overall % was about 62%, which is about average. But outside of those 3 guys he was 69% which is top shelf.

 

[brandonchristensen]

Game day had him sitting at 94-95.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I can't get pitchFX images to display directly today but Kelly's horizontal movement on his fastballs yesterday (Horizontal Movement x Speed plot) looked tremendous. 7 - 12 inches horizontal break on 94 - 99 mph pitches sounds very high to me. 
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=11&year=2015&game=gid_2015_04_11_bosmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=523260&prevGame=gid_2015_04_11_bosmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&prevDate=411&league=mlb

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

I can't get pitchFX images to display directly today but Kelly's horizontal movement on his fastballs yesterday (Horizontal Movement x Speed plot) looked tremendous. 7 - 12 inches horizontal break on 94 - 99 mph pitches sounds very high to me. 
 
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?month=4&day=11&year=2015&game=gid_2015_04_11_bosmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&pitchSel=523260&prevGame=gid_2015_04_11_bosmlb_nyamlb_1%2F&prevDate=411&league=mlb

yes, movement looked great.  yankees announcers said his movement was also unpredictable--fastball moves one way one pitch, other way next pitch.  They described him as having a live arm, lots of natural movement.  Perhaps that also explains his trouble in the 2nd inning with control, but once he settled down he looked nasty.

 

[Al Zarilla]

yes, movement looked great.  yankees announcers said his movement was also unpredictable--fastball moves one way one pitch, other way next pitch.  They described him as having a live arm, lots of natural movement.  Perhaps that also explains his trouble in the 2nd inning with control, but once he settled down he looked nasty.

My tendency is to think a team is not going to get value for value when they have a fire sale, if that's what you could call last year with Lester and Lackey, etc. leaving. But, getting Kelly (and Craig) for Lackey and (virtually) Porcello for Lester is looking pretty pretty good. Porcello may not be as "good" as Lester, but the saving on salary hopefully makes that swap a win also. 

 

[Plympton91]

Did they really let Kelly throw 118 pitches yesterday when he's coming off a spring training marred by arm issues! That seems uncharacteristically risky for this crew. I hope it doesn't lead to move issues that could have been avoided with more prudent usage early on.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Surprisingly little discussion other than Plympton's post above from Kelly's last outing... I have some high hopes for this kid and think he's going to end up as our best pitcher (and not just due to lack of other good pitchers) by season's end and a legit "no. 1".  His final line looked good, but 116 pitches and not going terribly deep into the game raised my eyebrows, not just for arm abuse for effectiveness of his pitches too.  Any comments by watchers?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Again... a Kelly game with no post game commentary.  What up SoSH?  Too early in the season still?  I used to stop by and see pitch f/x charts after every start and discussion and analysis from y'all.   
Again, I can never watch the games due to work so I just check on my phone and hope to read some post game stuff... but it looks like he did really good.... for 4 innings and then just lost it.  Anything?  Anyone?

 

[StupendousMan]

I wasn't watching the game, but listening to the radio feed during the sixth inning when the Rays broke through.  
 
Pitchf/x data shows the following:
 
  - fastball lost about 2 mph in inning 6, from average of 97 mph to average of 95 mph
 
  - release point did not change (though I see a hint that his curve release point is significantly higher than fastball)
 
  - location in the sixth inning was actually pretty good: look at the donut hole:
 
      

 
 
I'd say that the reasons the Rays did well in this inning is a combination of Kelly losing just a bit on his fastball, and losing enough on the location that the batters wouldn't chance the pitches out of the zone.  
 
My conclusion: don't worry.

 

[lexrageorge]

Kelly's BABIP against, which is essentially out of his control, was a whopping 0.500. 
 
If Kelly had been pulled after 5, his BABIP would have been 0.333.  Sometimes, it's just bad luck at inopportune times. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Kelly's BABIP against, which is essentially out of his control, was a whopping 0.500. 
 
If Kelly had been pulled after 5, his BABIP would have been 0.333.  Sometimes, it's just bad luck at inopportune times. 

 
Time to re-watch that inning. I don't recall a particularly shitty pitching job. I recall an inconsistent strike zone, a lot of stupid well-placed hits, but still - batters getting too much wood on the ball relative to the previous innings. I'm not going to go by game logs, but a re-watch. I'll take notes and report back (because I have nothing better to do this morning).
 
Here it is:
 
Cabrerra: Seeing Eye Ground Ball Base Hit on a Poor First Pitch
Longoria: Bad Pitch, Strike Called a Ball, Ball, Solid Line Drive Hit on a Cookie Fastball
Jennings: Bad Pitch, Ball (visit by Nieves), Bloop Hit to Centerfield
Dykstra: Bad Pitch, Seeing Eye Line Drive Just Out of the Reach of Bogaerts on a Good Pitch (just missing a double play)
Forsyth: Ball (97 mph fastball), Strike Called a Ball, Strike Called a Ball, Ball (run walked in)
 
Breakdown: 14 pitches
 
2 lucky hits plus one near double play
3 strikes called balls (Both sequences critical)
5 shitty pitches (out of 14) resulting in 2 solid hits and 3 of the 5 batters faced starting out 1-0.
No chasing of pitches by any Ray hitter
No called strikes, no swinging strikes, no foul balls
 
What a fucked up inning - but as I thought, not a horrible job by Kelly - not a good one either.
 
Watch it yourself and see if you agree.

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

He threw 14 pitches in the inning, 10 balls and 4 strikes. All 4 strikes were hits. None of the 4 was hit particularly hard but all ended up with perfect placement. His biggest problem in the inning was falling behind every batter.

 

[iayork]

 
2 lucky hits plus one near double play
3 strikes called balls (Both sequences critical)
5 shitty pitches (out of 14) resulting in 2 solid hits and 3 of the 5 batters faced starting out 1-0.
No chasing of pitches by any Ray hitter
No called strikes, no swinging strikes, no foul balls
 
What a fucked up inning - but as I thought, not a horrible job by Kelly - not a good one either.
 
Watch it yourself and see if you agree.

 
When I was watching it, I also thought there were several strikes that were called balls, but on reviewing the PITCHf/x for that inning there was only one that was even marginal, and that was exactly on the edge of the de facto strike zones (i.e. the zones that umpires actually called in 2014).  Here's what it looked like to PITCHf/x:
 

Spoiler

vs. the whole game:

Spoiler

 

[soxhop411]

@RyanHannable: This is Joe Kellys third career game with 7 or more strikeouts. All of them have came with the Red Sox.

 

[soxhop411]

@brianmacp: Joe Kelly said his offspeed stuff was the only thing that kept me in that ballgame.

 

[Plympton91]

At some point pitchers with 10 K's in 6 innings are not going to give up runs, right?

 

[Sprowl]

I have missed most of Joe Kelly's starts, and caught only a glimpse of his others, so I can only look at the numbers: he has great velocity, sustained into the 6th inning, and he gets plenty of swinging strikes on the slider, but he sure throws a lot of pitches right down the middle. Sooner or later, some of those middle pitches are bound to run into bats.
 

 

[Van Everyman]

It seemed like Kelly's two-seamer had too much movement on it. At least twice I saw pitches where Hannigan was set up on the outside corner to RHH that ended up tailing back over the heart of the plate. Saw that happen with Martin as well as the rookie who took him yard.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I keep on bumping these individual pitcher's threads but they tend to be ignored in favor of the catch-all sprawling threads these days.  I was able to catch the first 2 innings and Kelly looked sharp and in control of his stuff.  Any full watchers comment here?
Most of SoSH doesn't seem to care for Kelly, or at the most, think he should be in the BP.  Personally I think he's going to be a great starter (not an "ace" per  se) for us by mid-season and many full seasons after.

 

[johnnywayback]

On the broadcast, Orsillo and Lyons thought Kelly was slowing down his delivery a bit and throwing the fastball at 94-95 instead of 97-98; I saw on Twitter that he was eschewing the four-seamer in favor of two-seamers -- not sure if those are related or the same.  Watching the first couple of innings, it sure seems like he was taking it a little slower and using his off-speed stuff more effectively instead of trying to beat everyone with heat.
 
Either way, seems like the sort of helpful adjustment a new pitching coach might make to help a talented but unrefined pitcher start to put it together.

 

[rembrat]

It seemed like Orsillo and Lyons were trying to push one storyline while a different one was unfolding before our eyes. I didn't see any increase in offspeed stuff nor did I see him dial back his fastball. That may have been what Willis or Farrell relayed to them pre-game but in actuality Kelly was pumping in the heat like he usually does. What I saw was a Kelly who had control of his blistering fastball and used it to paint the edges of the strike zone. He also did a great job of keeping it down when he had to inducing quite a few groundballs.

 

[jasail]

I keep on bumping these individual pitcher's threads but they tend to be ignored in favor of the catch-all sprawling threads these days.  I was able to catch the first 2 innings and Kelly looked sharp and in control of his stuff.  Any full watchers comment here?
Most of SoSH doesn't seem to care for Kelly, or at the most, think he should be in the BP.  Personally I think he's going to be a great starter (not an "ace" per  se) for us by mid-season and many full seasons after.

 
A couple observations:
 
From the 1st-3rd and again in the 5th, he was throwing first pitch strikes and hammering the zone. He wasn't even wasting pitches in pitchers counts to try to get the strikeout. He was sitting at about 95 with his 4-seamer and was commanding it. He was mixing in his two-seamer over the inside corner against LHH. Especially early on he used his breaking stuff sparingly, but later used early in counts and in pitchers counts. Overall it looked like he threw more curves than sliders. Interested to see the pitchfx but it appeared he through a hand-full of change ups in the later innings to LHH. 
 
The above was the good, but there was still some bad. The 4th obviously stands out. He gets Cano to rollover on a breaking pitch and groundout. Then pitches a solid AB to Cruz but Cruz just muscles a broken bat blooper into right. Kelly comes back unfazed and starts attacking Seager who looked to be sitting low fastball and rifled a low liner the opposite way. Then with 2 on and 1 out, Kelly seemed to get the yips. In the Morrison AB it looked like he was trying to be too cute and fell behind him and eventually walked him after a long AB. Then in the next AB with the bases loaded he was overthrowing and pushing his fastball into the LHH batters box. It looked like a typical Joe Kelly inning - going gets tough and he looses it. He eventually got the pop out but it was a tense at bat and did not instill much confidence. Then facing Ackley (?) he regained his command and left Ackley staring at strike three. Overall, the outcome was good, but there were still moments where the game seemed to unravel a bit. He struggled again in either the 6th with the heart of the order, and despite the run he seemed more in control than he did in the 4th. 
 
As for the 7th. He seemed to loose his control over the bottom half of the plate. He still looked good against Ackley (?), who just really couldn't catch up with his fastball all night. Then he fell behind the #9 hitter 3-0 and eventually walked him on a pitch that was just low out of the zone. Kelly was upset about the call and about getting yanked, but you can't fall behind and walk the #9 hitter (particularly a guy with an OPS in the .100s) that late in the game. 
 
IMO, Joe's a work in progress. He has the stuff, but he doesn't quite know how to pitch. Tonight was better, but Rome wasn't built in a day and he still has work to do. I liked that he was good, but there were lessons that Willis and Kelly could take from this game. 

 

[jimv]

Fwiw, postgame Kelly mentioned he was particularly focused on fastball command.

 

[Al Zarilla]

If he backed off on his velocity, it wasn't much (from his May 9 start against toronto).

 
 

 

[jasail]

It seemed like Orsillo and Lyons were trying to push one storyline while a different one was unfolding before our eyes. I didn't see any increase in offspeed stuff nor did I see him dial back his fastball. That may have been what Willis or Farrell relayed to them pre-game but in actuality Kelly was pumping in the heat like he usually does. What I saw was a Kelly who had control of his blistering fastball and used it to paint the edges of the strike zone. He also did a great job of keeping it down when he had to inducing quite a few groundballs.

 
It seemed like he was throwing it more in the 94/95 range when he was around the bottom and corners than 97. Also, it seemed like when he felt like he needed to reach back for more, particularly in the 4th and 6th, he was overthrowing and pushing the ball. I felt Lyons was saying that he seemed to have better control by taking that 2-3 mph off and was throwing in the mid 90s rather than that high 90s.
 
I 100% agree with your comment about there not being an increase in the use of his offspeed pitches. There were a number of counts where I assumed he'd go to the slider and the curve to try to get the strikeout and went right back to the fastball in the bottom of the zone and on a number occasions induced a groundball for an out. 

 

[Vegas Sox Fan]

I'm a novice at reading those charts but it would seem the tighter cluster on the fastballs would indicate he may be controlling the spin better which would contribute to controlling location better. However, if he was dialing back you would expect to see the cluster tighten to the right instead of the left. Am I interpreting that correctly?

 

[czar]

The end result was better, and to his credit Kelly did give up a lot of weak contact, but I'm less optimistic than the general "we need more of THAT Joe Kelly going forward" theme that pervaded the telecast and other media following the game.
 
Only 6% SwStr%, lowest first pitch strike percentage of the year. 3 BBs to 2 Ks and he was bailed out of another BB or two. The Mariners are mid-pack in the AL in terms of wOBA and wRC+
 
Hopefully the results side of the ledger continues. Honestly, until his BB-fests the last couple starts, I would have been happy with the Joe Kelly that was generating whiffs and keeping the walks under control while allowing the occasional hard contact. I think that kind of skillset is a lot more promising long-term but also takes some start-to-start variance out of the "throw hard, but pitch to contact approach" which is similar to what Buchholz has employed on an off. We'll see where he settles in.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Perhaps he's missing Yadier Molina...

“For me, (Kelly) just has to figure out how to pitch,” Bradford said on “Red Sox Gameday Live” on Wednesday. “He relied so much on (Cardinals catcher Yadier) Molina when he was in St. Louis. “He told me, ‘Just put the fingers down, that’s the pitch I’m going to throw.’ He has to develop a repertoire in terms of how he wants to approach it, and unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have these other guys in the rotation who are doing well while he figures that out. He has to be the guy right away.”

http://nesn.com/2015/05/rob-bradford-joe-kelly-must-stop-relying-on-catcher-to-call-pitches-video/

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Perhaps he's missing Yadier Molina...

http://nesn.com/2015/05/rob-bradford-joe-kelly-must-stop-relying-on-catcher-to-call-pitches-video/

 
Seems that also speaks to the catching situation being in flux.  Three catchers in 6 weeks, and that doesn't include the guy who you possibly have any rapport with (Vazquez) being on the shelf since spring training.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The end result was better, and to his credit Kelly did give up a lot of weak contact, but I'm less optimistic than the general "we need more of THAT Joe Kelly going forward" theme that pervaded the telecast and other media following the game.
 
Only 6% SwStr%, lowest first pitch strike percentage of the year. 3 BBs to 2 Ks and he was bailed out of another BB or two. The Mariners are mid-pack in the AL in terms of wOBA and wRC+
 
Hopefully the results side of the ledger continues. Honestly, until his BB-fests the last couple starts, I would have been happy with the Joe Kelly that was generating whiffs and keeping the walks under control while allowing the occasional hard contact. I think that kind of skillset is a lot more promising long-term but also takes some start-to-start variance out of the "throw hard, but pitch to contact approach" which is similar to what Buchholz has employed on an off. We'll see where he settles in.

 
Not sure that the numbers bear out what Kelly felt what was happening - he said that he only threw one four-seam all game but more importantly, he felt like he could throw the ball where he wanted instead of yanking it as he does when he overthrows.  Specifically:
 

"I threw just one four-seam fastball (all game),'' said Kelly. "I just stayed with my two-seam the whole time, because I felt like I could command it to both sides. The other day, I was throwing more four-seamers and I was yanking them off the plate. I never gave them a chance to get back on the plate.
 
"I wasn't trying to go out there and throw 98s and 99s. I wanted to get quick outs, establish the fastball - but not down the middle - and just try to pitch to the corners and stay down.''
 

 
Kelly down in the zone and off the middle of the plate would be a really good pitcher going forward IMO.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'd be getting a little pissed if I was Kelly at this point.  Guy has got NO run support.  
Another very solid outing from Joe with nothing to show for it.

 

[Section15Box113]

I was in the stands and his final pitch to strike out Field - #108 of the night -registered 98 on the Fenway scoreboard.

Overall, a very solid performance.