Jonas Gray - Kickstarting for an Atomic Alarm Clock

[Super Nomario]

This is the requisite thread for any unheralded player after a breakout game, but in this case the question is significant since Ridley, Vereen, and Bolden are all free agents at the end of the year. Is Gray good enough to play the Ridley role next year? Do the Patriots still need to add a RB in the draft? Is Gray just a marginal talent and the Colts' run D is that bad?
 
Obviously his running was awesome, but one of the things that stood out to me was ball security. He toted the rock 38 times, and not only did he not fumble, I didn't even see any "the ball was out but his knee was down" plays or anything where the ball security was even questionable. That's a major positive - if he can be BJGE with a little more speed, that's plenty good to win with. For negatives, he doesn't seem to be a factor in the passing game at all.

 

[FL4WL3SS]

I think he's a lot stronger and faster than BJGE.
 
I don't know if it was the Colts defense or not, but he was very difficult to bring down last night. Very Corey Dillon-esque.

 

[C4CRVT]

Obviously the OL did a great job opening up holes for him but he consistently made good (quick) decisions about where to run and hit the holes hard. He also made a lot of his yardage just running downfield hard and getting great yardage after contact. I love that.

 

[H78]

If he has another game half as good as last night I think Ridley's gone. Actually, Ridley will likely be gone anyways seeing how I doubt BB will think he's worth whatever raise he's going to demand.
 
Vereen, I think, will be back. He's Faulk-lite and has nicely filled a former need that existed post-Faulk in the underneath passing game. Vereen also compliments Gray nicely because of how - as you mentioned - Gray doesn't seem to add much to the passing game.
 
Who knows with Bolden, but my guess is he's gone to make room for another unknown UFA coming out of the 2015 draft class.
 
But a lot of this hinges on whether Gray will be a one hit wonder, sort of like Blount was, or if he can be a consistent threat with the rock.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I don't see any reason why he can't play the Ridley role.  He runs hard, gets the yards that are there, protects the rock, and has been pretty good in blitz pickup as well.  He's been a non-factor so far in terms of catching the ball but I wonder how much that's just the Patriots trying to keep things simple with him.
 
Does anybody have a firm idea of his contractual situation?  Several sources say that he signed a three year reserve/future deal last January but Spotrac has him as an RFA after this year (which I dont think can be right, as he has only one accrued season) and Patscap has him as signed through 2015.  So there's a lot of contradictory information out there.  It seems to me that we should have his rights for at least two more years if this is his first accrued season but I'm not sure.

 

[TheRooster]

Blount was a one hit wonder?  He had >45 yds rusing in 10 games other than the week 17 mother lode.
 
I think Gray will be pretty similar to BJGE from a production standpoint, but may achieve the results in slightly more entertaining way.  He looked good in pre-season and BB still decided to risk losing him instead of James White so there has to be a catch that wasn't evident last night.  I think getting a couple of 1,000 yard seasons out of Gray would be great.

 

[Leather]

I image they'd still add a RB in the 3rd or 4th round, as insurance.

 

[Super Nomario]

Blount was a one hit wonder?  He had >45 yds rusing in 10 games other than the week 17 mother lode.
 
I think Gray will be pretty similar to BJGE from a production standpoint, but may achieve the results in slightly more entertaining way.  He looked good in pre-season and BB still decided to risk losing him instead of James White so there has to be a catch that wasn't evident last night.  I think getting a couple of 1,000 yard seasons out of Gray would be great.

I just saw a Matt Waldman Tweet that I think highlights this:
Matt Waldman @MattWaldman  ·  37m 37 minutes ago
I say this a ton on podcasts, but worth repeating. The amount of RB talent outpaces demand at the position.
 
If Gray was a CB or an OT, the "if he's this good why did they cut him?" argument carries more water, but there just aren't that many teams with pressing needs at RB. And Gray is a dude that has an extensive injury history, doesn't play special teams, doesn't contribute in the passing game, and doesn't have breakaway speed.

 

[DJnVa]

 
. And Gray is a dude that has an extensive injury history
 

 

He does? I know he was hurt his final year in college, but beyond that I'm not aware of other injuries. He was a 4 star guy out of HS and was a backup his first few seasons at ND, then sharing duty as a senior before his one injury.

 

[Phragle]

This is the requisite thread for any unheralded player after a breakout game, but in this case the question is significant since Ridley, Vereen, and Bolden are all free agents at the end of the year. Is Gray good enough to play the Ridley role next year? Do the Patriots still need to add a RB in the draft? Is Gray just a marginal talent and the Colts' run D is that bad?
 
Obviously his running was awesome, but one of the things that stood out to me was ball security. He toted the rock 38 times, and not only did he not fumble, I didn't even see any "the ball was out but his knee was down" plays or anything where the ball security was even questionable. That's a major positive - if he can be BJGE with a little more speed, that's plenty good to win with. For negatives, he doesn't seem to be a factor in the passing game at all.

 
He reminds me of Eddie Lacy, especially If he can start catching a ball or two per game. They run a little different and I think Gray is more athletic, but it's the best comparison I can think of right now. Maybe Michael Turner?
 
He can play the Ridley role but I think they should still add a RB or two because it's easy enough to find a good one late.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I think Ridley and Bolden are both gone and they don't draft a RB next year.  Vereen is back and White has a year in an NFL weight room.  Gray was awesome for one night but now needs to show consistency.  There is also Tyler Gaffney who was very productive in college, but is coming off a pretty tough injury.  
 
Maybe Vereen, White, Gray, Gaffeny is too unknown for some people, but I think that's a stable of backs that I can live with.

 

[Stitch01]

Im not sure Vereen is a lock to return.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
He does? I know he was hurt his final year in college, but beyond that I'm not aware of other injuries. He was a 4 star guy out of HS and was a backup his first few seasons at ND, then sharing duty as a senior before his one injury.

Pretty sure you're right and I'm wrong. I thought he had another knee injury in the pros, but on further investigation it's just that his college injury was late enough in his senior year that it wiped out his rookie NFL season.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Im not sure Vereen is a lock to return.

 
Woodhead's a free agent and coming off an injury, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him come back on the cheap and take Vereen's spot.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Im not sure Vereen is a lock to return.

 
Yeah, he has made less than 3.5M in his career and is almost certainly going to the highest bidder.  I doubt anybody goes crazy with him, as there's really nothing there to suggest that he's an every down back, but the Patriots are going to put a number on him, make him that offer, and then let him walk if somebody offers more.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

He sure does pass the eye test on a very small sample.  He seems to have good instincts on whether to hit the hole hard or to let things develop.  He also seems to avoid that trap that many younger RBs fall into where they take too long to decide the play is blown up and to just take what they can get.  The difference between second and nine and second and fourteen matters.  But on fewer than 70 carries or whatever so far, it's just so hard to say.  Thing is, he looked really strong against the Bears too, which is a league average run defense.  Patriots have a pretty decent string of average run defenses coming up, so no opportunity to see how he does against a primo run defense until the Jets game, but the Green Bay game seems like it will be a real test.  Using some clock and keeping the ball out of Rogers' hands will be important.

 

[ifmanis5]

For us it's a small sample, but after the game last night Bill was careful to say that what we saw from Gray was what they had been seeing in practice all along. Very encouraging.
He hits the hole hard and can't be arm tackled. Also ball control looked good and his use of blockers was very good.

 

[jsinger121]

 
Woodhead's a free agent and coming off an injury, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see him come back on the cheap and take Vereen's spot.

 
Woodhead is not a free agent. He signed an extension with the Chargers.
 
http://www.chargers.com/news/article-1/Danny-Woodhead-Chargers-Reach-Contract-Extension/5c710cdc-86d0-4984-8ec8-6be2af6ed9df

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Detroit is fairly stout up front, I'm interested to see how he and the OL fare against them.
 
One thing that surprised me last night was the niftiness he showed every now and then.  While he brought down the hammer and hit the holes with authority and all that, there were several moments where he displayed an agility that is useful.  Nothing like elite, but definitely present and worth keeping our eyes on.  

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
Woodhead is not a free agent. He signed an extension with the Chargers.
 
http://www.chargers.com/news/article-1/Danny-Woodhead-Chargers-Reach-Contract-Extension/5c710cdc-86d0-4984-8ec8-6be2af6ed9df

 
Huh, not sure how I missed that one. Thanks for the catch.

 

[IdiotKicker]

I think that Gray has the potential to be a solid starting back in the NFL.  I also think that any back in the league would have put up great numbers behind the o-line last night.  The holes the he had to run through were massive.  He was not being touched until 5-7 yards downfield on a lot of runs.  He gets downhill quickly and looks for contact, which is what the Pats need out of a back.  I also think that the Pats will never spend a ton on RBs, simply because it is a very fungible position, and there are other places where money is better spent.  Gray can definitely play at this level.  Exactly how good he is I have no idea at this point.

 

[Stitch01]

I was impressed with his work on the goal line and in short yardage.  He typically had holes to run through, but made a couple of those first down runs by himself in short yardage spots, the 3rd and 1 from the 4 or w/e in particular.

 

[twothousandone]

 I also think that any back in the league would have put up great numbers behind the o-line last night.  

Probably not Trent Richardson.

 

[IdiotKicker]

Probably not Trent Richardson.

 
Touche.  I also have a feeling there's a good chance Richardson is out of the league within the next year or two if he keeps playing like this.  He looks truly terrible, which I still find shocking.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
Touche.  I also have a feeling there's a good chance Richardson is out of the league within the next year or two if he keeps playing like this.  He looks truly terrible, which I still find shocking.

Has there been a worse trade in recent memory than Richardson to Indy?

I can't think of one that bad. Richardson wasn't good in Cleveland and has been awful in Indy. This is why you don't let ownership make decisions.

 

[JerBear]

Has there been a worse trade in recent memory than Richardson to Indy?

I can't think of one that bad. Richardson wasn't good in Cleveland and has been awful in Indy. This is why you don't let ownership make decisions.

 

   

 

[SidelineCameras]

Has there been a worse trade in recent memory than Richardson to Indy?

I can't think of one that bad. Richardson wasn't good in Cleveland and has been awful in Indy. This is why you don't let ownership make decisions.

 
Certainly not this owner.
 

 

[NortheasternPJ]

The pats traded a seventh and moss for a 3rd. That's not even in the ballpark.

Percy harvin to Seattle might be if he didn't have a game in the super bowl.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Has there been a worse trade in recent memory than Richardson to Indy?

I can't think of one that bad. Richardson wasn't good in Cleveland and has been awful in Indy. This is why you don't let ownership make decisions.

 
Still not even in the same ballpark as the Ricky Williams trade (depends what we mean by "recent memory").

 

[Ed Hillel]

The pats traded a seventh and moss for a 3rd. That's not even in the ballpark.

Percy harvin to Seattle might be if he didn't have a game in the super bowl.

 
I'm pretty sure he was referencing the original Moss trade to New England.

 

[ivanvamp]

If he has another game half as good as last night I think Ridley's gone. Actually, Ridley will likely be gone anyways seeing how I doubt BB will think he's worth whatever raise he's going to demand.
 
Vereen, I think, will be back. He's Faulk-lite and has nicely filled a former need that existed post-Faulk in the underneath passing game. Vereen also compliments Gray nicely because of how - as you mentioned - Gray doesn't seem to add much to the passing game.
 
Who knows with Bolden, but my guess is he's gone to make room for another unknown UFA coming out of the 2015 draft class.
 
But a lot of this hinges on whether Gray will be a one hit wonder, sort of like Blount was, or if he can be a consistent threat with the rock.

 
I'm not sure Ridley will command a very high salary.  We all know his talent, but seriously, if you're looking for a RB, here are the negatives he brings:
 
- at least a perception of ball security issues
- coming off a major injury
- only more than 775 yards on the ground once in his four-year career
- not a very good (or very accomplished, anyway) receiver
 
He has talent, but because of these factors, I don't see him commanding a very big contract.

 

[DJnVa]

 
Certainly not this owner.
 

 
Was this fool tweeting at all yesterday?
 

 

[ivanvamp]

I was impressed with his work on the goal line and in short yardage.  He typically had holes to run through, but made a couple of those first down runs by himself in short yardage spots, the 3rd and 1 from the 4 or w/e in particular.

 
I liked how every carry finished with him moving people downfield.  Almost never, that I can recall, was he pushed backward.  Always moving forward, even if it was just for a couple of yards.

 

[The Mort Report]

I think arguing about if a running back has past injuries is kind of pointless.  Every running back is an injury risk regardless of past injuries. Investing heavily in either dollars or draft pick for a RB is a waste of resources.  Look at the last few years and what backs have been important.  Gray was undraft, Blount was had for 7th rounder, Woodhead claimed from the Jets, The Law Firm was undrafted.  They won 2 Super Bowl's with a 29 and 31 year old Antowain Smith off the scrap heap. Sure Ridley was decent, but the Pats have found similar production without wasting a 3rd rounder

 

[wutang112878]

The big question with Gray is what happens when he the designed hole isnt there.  If you recall some of our battles against the Steelers when Bettis was running the ball if we clogged up the middle enough so he couldnt take a direct B-line to the designed hole then he was very ineffective because he couldnt kick it outside, didnt have great cut and turn ability and he needed a good length runway to get generate any speed.  When a power-back can effectively run when the designed lane is clogged that player is a talent, if a player cant do that then suddenly they look like a JAG.
 
Last night Indy couldnt seem to clog up anything between the tackles so its really tough to judge Gray when there was no chance of exposing his biggest potential flaw.  I will say that based on some of those designed runs outside he does have a decent quick burst, but I dont think its enough to win a sprint to the sideline.  I think this ceiling is BGJE or Shonn Green which is really a compliment, but I say that is what he will be I want to see him make 5 'designed hole isnt there' effective runs.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Has there been a worse trade in recent memory than Richardson to Indy?

I can't think of one that bad. Richardson wasn't good in Cleveland and has been awful in Indy. This is why you don't let ownership make decisions.

 
Setting the bar at 30+ carries, there were 11 running backs drafted this year after where the Colts would have drafted had they not traded their 1st rounder. Just one (Andre Williams-4th rounder) has a lower YPC than Richardson. It would probably be pretty tough to get less value than they did for that pick.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

The big question with Gray is what happens when he the designed hole isnt there.  If you recall some of our battles against the Steelers when Bettis was running the ball if we clogged up the middle enough so he couldnt take a direct B-line to the designed hole then he was very ineffective because he couldnt kick it outside, didnt have great cut and turn ability and he needed a good length runway to get generate any speed.  When a power-back can effectively run when the designed lane is clogged that player is a talent, if a player cant do that then suddenly they look like a JAG.
 
Last night Indy couldnt seem to clog up anything between the tackles so its really tough to judge Gray when there was no chance of exposing his biggest potential flaw.  I will say that based on some of those designed runs outside he does have a decent quick burst, but I dont think its enough to win a sprint to the sideline.  I think this ceiling is BGJE or Shonn Green which is really a compliment, but I say that is what he will be I want to see him make 5 'designed hole isnt there' effective runs.

 
That happened inside the 5 last night. He was hit a yard into the backfield over the left tackle and still managed to convert the 3rd and 2. 
 
There's nothing wrong with a guy being a 1-cut back. A lot of very successful RB's are exactly that. If the benchmark for success is "can he succeed when the line sucks in front of him", then we're setting the bar too high. There were quite a few occasions last night where he exhibited fantastic patience when the intended hole wasn't there. A good chunk of his yards came through holes you could drive a truck through, but he certainly showed a knack for letting a play develop and hitting a hole when the light cracked through.
 
Hell, I'll go a step further. Regardless of line play, that was the most consistently decisive I've seen a Patriots running back in a few years, and that's one of the best traits a running back can have. I'm excited to see what he can bring to the table. 

 

[nazz45]

How’s this for balance?
 
Running Left – 13 attempts for 57 yards (includes a -2 yard run with a 15 yard face-mask penalty) for a 4.4 average with 1 TD run. Long of 16 yards.
 
Running Middle – 13 attempts for 70 yards for a  5.4 average with 1 TD run. Long of 14 yards
 
Running Right – 12 attempts for 72 yards for 6.0 average with 2 TD runs. Long of 20 yards.
 
The above is based off the play-by-play data. Speaks to both the execution of the blocking scheme and Gray, who tallied as many first down runs (16) on the night as Ridley had through 5+ games. He also gained 86 of his 199 yards after contact according to the Globe's Ben Volin. Ridley had 166 yards after contact this season.

 

[dbn]

 
 
That happened inside the 5 last night. He was hit a yard into the backfield over the left tackle and still managed to convert the 3rd and 2. 
 
There's nothing wrong with a guy being a 1-cut back. A lot of very successful RB's are exactly that. If the benchmark for success is "can he succeed when the line sucks in front of him", then we're setting the bar too high. There were quite a few occasions last night where he exhibited fantastic patience when the intended hole wasn't there. A good chunk of his yards came through holes you could drive a truck through, but he certainly showed a knack for letting a play develop and hitting a hole when the light cracked through.
 
Hell, I'll go a step further. Regardless of line play, that was the most consistently decisive I've seen a Patriots running back in a few years, and that's one of the best traits a running back can have. I'm excited to see what he can bring to the table. 
 

 
I agree with this. No pro running back will succeed if the O-line sucks, pretty much all of them will look good if the O-line is great at run-blocking. That said, Gray passed the eye-test for me last night. His fast decision making helped avoid under-achieving on any play, and his power helped to get more yards than many backs would have on many plays.
 
We have few data, but so far so good.

 

[TomTerrific]

I think we can all agree Jonas Gray isn't going to set the world on fire with his running. But it strikes me that his skill set--hitting the hole hard, getting those extra 2-3 yds at the end of a run--is precisely that which the Pats could really use in the red zone.
 
You'll note that last night they were 7-for-7  6-for-6 in converting red zone field-goal-range trips into TDs, and that played a big part in the outcome. Change a few of those TDs to FGs and the game could well have had a completely different feeling (albeit quite likely with the same outcome).That's the part I'm hoping Gray can really make a difference in.
 
EDIT: Yes, as PP pointed out, I can't count.

 

[Devizier]

 
I agree with this. No pro running back will succeed if the O-line sucks, pretty much all of them will look good if the O-line is great at run-blocking.

 
Trent Richardson being the reason for the "pretty much" qualifier.

 

[Reverend]

We don't have a Stork - What Do We Have Here? thread.

We suck.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Can we please calm down for a minute?

Remember his stats against Denver?  12 carries, 33 yards sound familiar?
 
Let's not buy him a ticket to Canton (Ohio) quite yet.  Let's see him against the Lions first, ok?  They've got a good DL, so I've heard.

 

[wiffleballhero]

Given than Detroit averages the lowest number of yards allow by the run, I suspect we will find out soon enough.

 

[amarshal2]

Can we please calm down for a minute?

Remember his stats against Denver?  12 carries, 33 yards sound familiar?
 
Let's not buy him a ticket to Canton (Ohio) quite yet.  Let's see him against the Lions first, ok?  They've got a good DL, so I've heard.

You're right, Hitler was right when it came to...oh, sorry, you made me think this was a game where we just responded blindly without reading anything that was written.

A lot of the work Sunday was done by the o-line. Gray definitely isn't a burner or a guy with a ton of moves but there were sometimes where he showed ability to find the hole, make the cut, and make a play. If he can be a BJGE type where he secures the ball and rarely loses yards on a carry then I think he could fill that role for the Pats.

The thing that excited me was how well the oline blocked. Indy was stacking the box and couldn't stop it. Would be nice to be able to bring out that package and get 2-3 yards whenever they need it on tougher run defenses.

 

[Leather]

He only needs to be good enough that other teams have to account for him in good faith.   His game on Sunday ensured that for the remainder of the season, hopefully. Anything else is pretty much gravy.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

You're right, Hitler was right when it came to...oh, sorry, you made me think this was a game where we just responded blindly without reading anything that was written.

A lot of the work Sunday was done by the o-line. Gray definitely isn't a burner or a guy with a ton of moves but there were sometimes where he showed ability to find the hole, make the cut, and make a play. If he can be a BJGE type where he secures the ball and rarely loses yards on a carry then I think he could fill that role for the Pats.

The thing that excited me was how well the oline blocked. Indy was stacking the box and couldn't stop it. Would be nice to be able to bring out that package and get 2-3 yards whenever they need it on tougher run defenses.

 
No, but there were 40+ posts praising him on the results of one game (plus a decent outing against Chicago when he wasn't nearly as featured.
 
No question it was the O-line who got him those holes.  You or I could have gained 199 yards on Sunday.
 
But good use of a Hitler joke.

 

[rodderick]

 
No, but there were 40+ posts praising him on the results of one game (plus a decent outing against Chicago when he wasn't nearly as featured.
 
No question it was the O-line who got him those holes.  You or I could have gained 199 yards on Sunday.
 
But good use of a Hitler joke.

 
So are you willing to say his poor results against Denver were due to the OL not doing its job? Because you can't have it both ways. Obviously the OL had a lot to do with his performance on Sunday, but to just discard his efforts as if they were meaningless is pretty unfair. I saw a lot of tough running for extra yardage against the Colts. 

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

But good use of a Hitler joke.

 
It was a gas.

 

[GregHarris]

He seems to be able to get by the first hit on a lot of his touches, and not just against Indy either - he showed a bit of this in the Bears game too.  Gray probably wont be breaking any game changing 50 yard runs with regularity, but he will consistently break runs in the 8 to 15 yard range.  Most importantly, he seems to protect the football much better than his predecessor.
 
Unless Gray really struggles or becomes extremely fumble prone (!), I don't see Ridley being on this team next year.  Bolden is pretty good on special teams, so unless he's demanding big cash, I am not sure why he wouldn't be back.