JDM

[The Gray Eagle]

Or they could have instead tried to sign good but not big-name players to short-term deals that maintain your flexibility, like they did before the 2013 season. Just throwing a huge contract to the currently best-available free agent to fill a current hole is almost always a mistake. Being creative, open-minded and keeping flexibility is a better long-term strategy.

I think this team currently has a strong enough core that they don't need to sign bad long-term contracts that could hamstring us for years and years like Sandoval and Ramirez have. They should be looking for singings that fill holes but don't risk albatrossing you for years, like in the past when they found Bill Mueller/Shane Victorino type of short-term deals.

 

[moondog80]

Or they could have instead tried to sign good but not big-name players to short-term deals that maintain your flexibility, like they did before the 2013 season. Just throwing a huge contract to the currently best-available free agent to fill a current hole is almost always a mistake. Being creative, open-minded and keeping flexibility is a better long-term strategy.

I think this team currently has a strong enough core that they don't need to sign bad long-term contracts that could hamstring us for years and years like Sandoval and Ramirez have. They should be looking for singings that fill holes but don't risk albatrossing you for years, like in the past when they found Bill Mueller/Shane Victorino type of short-term deals.

Mueller was signed to a ridiculously low deal that wouldn't happen in today's more sophisticated market. Victorino was signed to a three year deal that generated one year of value and 337 PA of 76 OPS+ in the other two years -- it would be viewed as a disaster had the whole roster not caught lightning in a bottle in 2013.

Obviously they could have played their cards a little differently three years ago, but the point is that free agency is always going to suck in terms of risk, but it's the only game in town.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Victorino was a key part of winning a world championship, and his contract was small enough that it didn't stop us from acquiring anyone else. Unlike the Sandoval contract and Hanley's too, which made us avoid signing Encarnacion to a good, reasonable contract last year.

When Victorino fell apart after winning the title, it was bad for the team, but not crippling. Almost all giant long-term contracts become real albatrosses down the road, hurting flexibility in the same years that shorter, good-value contracts have already expired.

 

[brs3]

Not to derail the discussion, but lumping Hanley Ramirez with Sandoval is a bit overdramatic. He may not ultimately live up to the pricetag, but he doesn't fit the albatross distinction that guys like Sandoval and Allen Craig do deserve. Allen Craig was paid almost 30 million dollars for 65 games in a Red Sox uniform, while Hanley has 72 hrs in the last 3 seasons and 11 hits in 7 postseason games for the Sox.

 

[moondog80]

Victorino was a key part of winning a world championship, and his contract was small enough that it didn't stop us from acquiring anyone else. Unlike the Sandoval contract and Hanley's too, which made us avoid signing Encarnacion to a good, reasonable contract last year.

When Victorino fell apart after winning the title, it was bad for the team, but not crippling. Almost all giant long-term contracts become real albatrosses down the road, hurting flexibility in the same years that shorter, good-value contracts have already expired.

Yes, Victorino was a better deal. But you're comparing it to one of the worst outcomes in FA history. Pursuing deals like that instead of Sandoval (in terms of expected value at time of signing) isn't going to make FA much more or less of a successful path.

 

[johnnywayback]

Not to derail the discussion, but lumping Hanley Ramirez with Sandoval is a bit overdramatic. He may not ultimately live up to the pricetag, but he doesn't fit the albatross distinction that guys like Sandoval and Allen Craig do deserve. Allen Craig was paid almost 30 million dollars for 65 games in a Red Sox uniform, while Hanley has 72 hrs in the last 3 seasons and 11 hits in 7 postseason games for the Sox.

Very true. But even then, Hanley's contract is now underwater and limiting the team's roster and financial flexibility.

To me, this is all a question about whether your goal is to maximize your chances of winning a title in any given year or maximize the odds that you will be in contention every year. I much prefer the latter approach to team-building, but this ownership group and GM prefer the former, and that clearly indicates they should sign JD Martinez regardless of the likelihood that the contract will limit or even cripple the team's flexibility in 2020 and beyond. Just because the strategy isn't optimal doesn't mean they should half-ass it.

 

[grimshaw]

Not to derail the discussion, but lumping Hanley Ramirez with Sandoval is a bit overdramatic. He may not ultimately live up to the pricetag, but he doesn't fit the albatross distinction that guys like Sandoval and Allen Craig do deserve. Allen Craig was paid almost 30 million dollars for 65 games in a Red Sox uniform, while Hanley has 72 hrs in the last 3 seasons and 11 hits in 7 postseason games for the Sox.

I don't understand what 11 post season hits and 72 home runs has to do with anything. Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp hit lots of home runs while doing nothing else as well over that time. If you are taking a big picture approach of his three years here, he has been one of the worst players in baseball over that span. 10th worst in WAR out of 232 qualified players. One season he was completely unplayable, and last year they couldn't upgrade at his position because he was on the roster. They may DFA him this season so they don't have to pay him next year.

Craig's contract was a drop in the bucket. 6-8 million AAV and he sat in the minors. You can't really be an albatross if you aren't taking up space on the 25 man roster and are costing your team less than 5% of its payroll.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Or they could have instead tried to sign good but not big-name players to short-term deals that maintain your flexibility, like they did before the 2013 season. Just throwing a huge contract to the currently best-available free agent to fill a current hole is almost always a mistake. Being creative, open-minded and keeping flexibility is a better long-term strategy.

I think this team currently has a strong enough core that they don't need to sign bad long-term contracts that could hamstring us for years and years like Sandoval and Ramirez have. They should be looking for singings that fill holes but don't risk albatrossing you for years, like in the past when they found Bill Mueller/Shane Victorino type of short-term deals.

The problems with that are, first you assume a Shane Victorino is out there on the market, and if there is, then you need to identify him. Victorino posted a 5.9 WAR in 2013 (not to mention two separate game 6 winning hits in the ALCS and WS), far exceeding anyone's wildest expectations. That's not the type of player typically sitting around ready to be snatched up. Likewise, Bill Mueller posted a 4.7 WAR in 2003, 1.1 in 2004 (this one surprised me), and 3.5 in 2005.

Additionally, I'd argue that this team is mostly solid at all positions. Bradley, Betts, Benintendi is a fine outfield. Moreland and Pedroia (once healthy), are fine defenders, and at minimum passable at the plate. Devers has tons of potential, though I think it's unwise to count on him to anchor a lineup this early. Ramirez might be productive, but we're going to need far more than what he showed in 2017. Bogaerts could do anything from batting .340 to .260. He could hit 30 home runs, or maybe it will be 3. Maybe you can upgrade Vaz to Realmuto and deepen the lineup, but I don't think that solves the major underlying issue. We have plenty of guys okay enough at getting on first and second base, not enough guys good at getting them to home plate.

 

[DJnVa]

Per EEI Nightingale reporting a 5/$130M on table now from Sox.

 

[TomBrunansky23]

Per EEI Nightingale reporting a 5/$130M on table now from Sox.

If true...

What I like: Reasonable term with an AAV that isn't out of line for a player of his caliber.

What I don't like: It seems like we are bidding against ourselves.

 

[MikeM]

I don't understand what 11 post season hits and 72 home runs has to do with anything. Albert Pujols and Matt Kemp hit lots of home runs while doing nothing else as well over that time. If you are taking a big picture approach of his three years here, he has been one of the worst players in baseball over that span. 10th worst in WAR out of 232 qualified players. One season he was completely unplayable, and last year they couldn't upgrade at his position because he was on the roster. They may DFA him this season so they don't have to pay him next year.

Big picture and in hindsight the Hanley deal is arguably going down as a series of surrounding organizational mistakes just as much as a player bust imo. Given he was an upside play that did make sense at the time (imo) given our need for offense, that we then basically went on to mishandle in 3 of his 4 years here. Starting a couple hours afterwards when the still baffling to me choice to sign Pablo over him was made.

Had we simply slotted him in at 3rd, skipped the part where he stopped training with the expectation of remaining in the infield, and then shifted him over to 1B latter if need be while leaving him alone after-the-fact...things could have played out different.

I'll believe he gets DFA'd when I see it btw, even in the event we do sign JDM. If anything I'd still guess a trade of Bradley before expecting the fairly uncharacteristic call like that coming out of this FO.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

That is only being reported because it’s not being accepted If the Sox leaked it they want fans to know they tried. Or, more likely, Boras leaks it to get others moving. If JDM signs w Boston it will likely be for slightly more than that. But fact that offer is public may not bode well for the Sox

 

[nvalvo]

Sounds like we reasoned this out pretty well.

I don’t think the Boston FO leaked this to let fans know they tried. I think Boras is trying to get more teams engaged.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

That is only being reported because it’s not being accepted If the Sox leaked it they want fans to know they tried. Or, more likely, Boras leaks it to get others moving. If JDM signs w Boston it will likely be for slightly more than that. But fact that offer is public may not bode well for the Sox

Yeah. I imagine that the Red Sox have had an offer to JDM since at least the winter meetings. So the fact that it's being reported now might also mean nothing more then eventually the media finds out about things.

 

[nvalvo]

This contract, if accepted, would be (I think — am I missing anything?) the fifth largest in team history, between Crawford and the Pedroia extension.

Price $217m
Manny $160m
Gonzalez $154m
Crawford $142m
Pedroia $110m
Sandoval $95m

 

[grimshaw]

Had we simply slotted him in at 3rd, skipped the part where he stopped training with the expectation of remaining in the infield, and then shifted him over to 1B latter if need be while leaving him alone after-the-fact...things could have played out different.

Completely agree. The moment they moved him out of the left side of the infield, the contract became less palatable which is why the price seemed right. While he hasn't become immobile, I don't believe he would have bulked up into a linebacker otherwise and could have retained some agility.

I liked the deal at the time because at worst I thought he would be a top 10 hitting left fielder. Less wear and tear on the body from the infield would keep him healthy.

Sounds like we reasoned this out pretty well.

I don’t think the Boston FO leaked this to let fans know they tried. I think Boras is trying to get more teams engaged.

Agree. If the Jays and D-Backs are involved then that may not be a huge stretch. I think the Sox just aren't bidding against themselves and are waiting it out. If the final deal is even 10-20 million higher then I'll call it a win. Boras' silence seems like he is trying to save some face, since he is going to get nowhere near his initial asking price even if a team relents and gives him a 6th year.

I can't imagine JD Martinez is thrilled with him right now.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Nightengale article mentions a five-year offer from the Sox but says nothing about $. I'm wondering where that $130M came from.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

that's acceptable to me. some chance of not being an albatross by the end, too.

so the fact it's leaked and is likely to go up isn't great, as said.

 

[bosockboy]

The Nightengale article mentions a five-year offer from the Sox but says nothing about $. I'm wondering where that $130M came from.

Mentioned he was on WEEI a few posts up.

 

[nvalvo]

The Nightengale article mentions a five-year offer from the Sox but says nothing about $. I'm wondering where that $130M came from.

The post above from DrewDawg, attributed to WEEI, is the only place I've seen the dollars.

 

[Traut]

that's acceptable to me. some chance of not being an albatross by the end, too.

so the fact it's leaked and is likely to go up isn't great, as said.

Do clubs view contracts this way? I'm not so sure. Sure 5/130 is an AAV of 26 million. But perhaps the Sox view it as JDM is worth 40 each of the next two seasons. And essentially adding years benefits the club by not having to come up with 40 million in cash in 2018 and 2019 and instead spreading it over 5 years. If the business and baseball ops people believe that Martinez is the difference between a wild card team and a World Series team his value may very well be worth 40 million for the next two seasons.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

Per EEI Nightingale reporting a 5/$130M on table now from Sox.

I think this is a good thing in terms of the Sox changes to land JDM on a reasonable contract. It appears to be a reasonable place to kick-start the negotiations. Any teams that were lurking on JDM in hopes that they could get him for a bargain (<= 5/$130) late in the off-season will now move other directions. They will realize that if the Sox are starting at 5/130, they are likely to move up to at least 5/$135-140 or 6/$150 if needed. My guess is that if the Sox have to bump up the offer, they would prefer to do it with $1-2M of AAV instead of adding the 6th year.

If Boras is the one leaking this info, it seems like he is indirectly lowering his initial asking price of 7/$210. He is probably holding out hope for the midpoint between his ask and the Sox offer, which would be 6/$180. Since the market is not in his favor, I'd expect a final deal to be closer to $130 than $180 as there is not enough competitors to get the Sox to add a 6th year.

If the Sox are leaking this info, they are trying to move the negotiations along by knocking off the teams that are simply lurking so that they can determine who the real competitors are. For example, if the Giants were only interested in JDM at 5/$125, they might pass and push hard for Jay Bruce this week.

 

[Moviegoer]

This contract doesn't seem at all as crazy as some of the doom and gloom amounts I've been hearing all winter.

 

[timduhda1]

I’m guessing if this is indeed the contract, there are more suitors than just the Sox.

 

[edoug]

I'm not sure the extra million a year would dissuade SF very much. How it would affect what Arizona might do, might be a different thing. Because, with absolutely no insider info at all, I think that's where he'd prefer to sign.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Per EEI Nightingale reporting a 5/$130M on table now from Sox.

I just listened to the whole segment where WEEI talked about Martinez. 1. Nightengale was not even on. 2. Merloni said "130, 5 years, get it done" talking out of his ass, much like this post.

 

[BigPapiMPD34]

I just listened to the whole segment where WEEI talked about Martinez. 1. Nightengale was not even on. 2. Merloni said "130, 5 years, get it done" talking out of his ass, much like this post.

Ouch, that changes the whole storyline then if we don't know how much $ was offered.

 

[SoxinSeattle]

I just listened to the whole segment where WEEI talked about Martinez. 1. Nightengale was not even on. 2. Merloni said "130, 5 years, get it done" talking out of his ass, much like this post.

Nightengale says 5 years is on the table but no dollar amount was attached to it. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-j-d-martinez-five-202334607.html

 

[moondog80]

130/5 wouldn’t be a disaster, but not quite the bargain I was hoping for. I wouldn’t count out the White Sox. Similar to the Phillies, they are a non-small market team with an absurdly low total of financial commitments.

 

[grimshaw]

Nightengale says 5 years is on the table but no dollar amount was attached to it. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/report-j-d-martinez-five-202334607.html

He also said Hosmer has a 7 year offer from the Padres on the table. . . ouch.

 

[chawson]

Another possible strike against us is that Arizona’s income tax is 4.54%. Massachusetts’ is 5.1%.

Edit: bad math

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Honest question - is Nightengale even relevant anymore? I know he was connected when he was at SN, but since he’s gone to USA Today, I don’t recall him making any kind of scoop. Seems odd that if Boras is leaking stuff it’s not going through Heyman.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Another possible strike against us is that Arizona’s income tax is 4.54%. Massachusetts’ is 5.1%.

For example, the D-Backs offering $115.73 million would be the equivalent of a $130 million deal from the Sox.

Players are taxed based on where they play their games .. so the Mass. rate only applies to half his salary.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

Honest question - is Nightengale even relevant anymore? I know he was connected when he was at SN, but since he’s gone to USA Today, I don’t recall him making any kind of scoop. Seems odd that if Boras is leaking stuff it’s not going through Heyman.

Clearly he is connected given all his David Price info

 

[Byrdbrain]

Another possible strike against us is that Arizona’s income tax is 4.54%. Massachusetts’ is 5.1%.

For example, the D-Backs offering $115.73 million would be the equivalent of a $130 million deal from the Sox.

In addition to what was mentioned above regarding state tax being paid where it was earned I have no idea how you came up with that number.
There is no way an extra 0.5% of income tax, even if he did have to pay all of it to one state, would cost him almost $15M. It looks to me like it would cost him about $700k over the life of the contract, not chump change but not $15M either.

 

[chawson]

In addition to what was mentioned above regarding state tax being paid where it was earned I have no idea how you came up with that number.
There is no way an extra 0.5% of income tax, even if he did have to pay all of it to one state, would cost him almost $15M. It looks to me like it would cost him about $700k over the life of the contract, not chump change but not $15M either.

Good lord, my bad.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Another possible strike against us is that Arizona’s income tax is 4.54%. Massachusetts’ is 5.1%.

For example, the D-Backs offering $115.73 million would be the equivalent of a $130 million deal from the Sox.

Better check your math. I have less than a 1/2 million difference in state tax between the two. Now California or NY there would be a big difference but even that would be less than 5 million difference.

 

[Marbleheader]

Same feeling I had with Josh Hamilton, let him be someone else's mistake.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Clearly he is connected given all his David Price info

Which is/was what? The plane thing?

 

[carver]

Honest question - is Nightengale even relevant anymore? I know he was connected when he was at SN, but since he’s gone to USA Today, I don’t recall him making any kind of scoop. Seems odd that if Boras is leaking stuff it’s not going through Heyman.

No one ever likes a Hymen to leak...

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

5 years guaranteed is as far as I would go. And if it's anything over 125, I don't think it could be called a bargain, so I don't know that we'd see a lot of new teams jumping in. I question whether there are any other teams willing to make that commitment in years and/or dollars.

SF and AZ have been most frequently cited as the competition. The consensus from the media on the Dbacks is that they couldn't afford JDM unless they find a taker for Greinke. Given his contract, that'll be tough. As for SF, the reports have been they are trying to stay under the cap, and they've already added a bat, and some salary, with Longoria. And they are also supposedly trying to improve their OF defense, which was horrible last year. So it seems questionable that they would want to bring in JDM, already shaky in the field, as an OF on at least a five-year deal. Not out of the question, but questionable.

As for the others, the White Sox and Philly certainly have the money, but they are probably both at least a year away. And I think both see themselves as players in the market for Machado or Harper next year, where that money would be better spent.

So if the Sox are willing to go five years, I think they will get him, unless AZ unloads Greinke, or they decide to bite the bullet and increase payroll dramatically.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

As for the others, the White Sox and Philly certainly have the money, but they are probably both at least a year away. And I think both see themselves as players in the market for Machado or Harper next year, where that money would be better spent.

Small point in the scope of things, but there is no way in hell the White Sox will be players in the $300 million contract game. I think it's probably unlikely they're in on JDM, but his type of money would be more like the upper upper end of where they might go.

 

[Pozo the Clown]

Small point in the scope of things, but there is no way in hell the White Sox will be players in the $300 million contract game.

And your certainty is derived from what unquestionable source?

 

[jon abbey]

The White Sox haven’t had a payroll over $120M since 2011, but they have almost no commitments past 2018 left and a ton of high ceiling prospects to fill spots cheaply so it’s not impossible, I think.

 

[MikeM]

That is only being reported because it’s not being accepted If the Sox leaked it they want fans to know they tried. Or, more likely, Boras leaks it to get others moving. If JDM signs w Boston it will likely be for slightly more than that. But fact that offer is public may not bode well for the Sox

I initially thought this as well, but Boras using us to create a trump mark illusion also makes a lot of sense in that 6 years was always probably their reality target reach to begin with.

I'd buy more into the Chicago sleeper angle if JDM was a LHH, and they didn't already have a good bat/poor defensive corner OF'er in Garcia. Unless they were trading Garcia away for a notable pitching piece it otherwise doesn't make a lot of overall sense to me.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

The White Sox haven’t had a payroll over $120M since 2011, but they have almost no commitments past 2018 left and a ton of high ceiling prospects to fill spots cheaply so it’s not impossible, I think.

It would be a huge change in strategy from how they've always operated. The biggest contract they've ever given out is Abreu's 6 yr, $68 million. So it's not impossible, I suppose, but chasing the high end guys is something they've literally never done before.

EDIT--unless you want to include Albert Belle in 1996 on a 5 year contract

 

[moondog80]

It would be a huge change in strategy from how they've always operated. The biggest contract they've ever given out is Abreu's 6 yr, $68 million. So it's not impossible, I suppose, but chasing the high end guys is something they've literally never done before.

EDIT--unless you want to include Albert Belle in 1996 on a 5 year contract

They've also never been in a situation where, as JA points out, they have virtually zero financial commitments and tons of young, cheap players for the foreseeable future. I wouldn't overpay for him, but if they can get him at a relative bargain price, there's no reason not to do this, it will never stop them from doing any other deal. It's not like they will be realistic players for Harper or Kershaw or Machado.

 

[johnnywayback]

Yeah, the White Sox have every reason to believe they'll be very good as soon as 2020 -- or even earlier if they package some of that young talent for an established but still young star like Christian Yelich or Chris Archer or whoever. And if they don't think they'll be able to attract any of the top-level free agent talent next offseason, it makes all the sense in the world for them to try to add someone this winter.

 

[TimScribble]

Hosmer supposedly has a 7/147 contract offer from KC.

Wonder what way this will push JDM’s
Contract.

 

[Senator Donut]

Better check your math. I have less than a 1/2 million difference in state tax between the two. Now California or NY there would be a big difference but even that would be less than 5 million difference.

The ballot initiative to raise the top marginal rate in Massachusetts to 9.1% has been polling at greater than 75%, so it's seems likely Massachusetts will become a super-high income tax state for big earners starting in 2019.