This statistical tangent is dorky even by SoSH standards.
Something is wrong with Tatum's shooting mechanics, not bad luck in 344 coin flips.
Something is wrong with Tatum's shooting mechanics, not bad luck in 344 coin flips.
Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
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Counterpoint: many of us can now use the term Bernoulli variable in a sentence. I will sound absurd and wrong doing so. The point is that we are poorer without the tangent.
That said, mechanics seem like an obvious culprit but it could be fatigue, injury related or even the fact that people in their early 20s have a lot going on even if they aren't professional athletes.
Yeah I agree with this entire post. I welcome the dorkiness and am impressed by the wisdom here in the statistical realm.
I just found it funny that we're calculating something that is certainly not caused by randomness and basically used math to prove what we already know. It was impressive though.
Yes, very good point about the heavily simplifying assumption; this isn't as neat as a coin flip, unfortunately. Still, if you assume random variation in these decomposed variables, then over a large-enough sample size, it seems you might get a number that isn't too distorted by the initial assumption. E.g., it seems a scatterplot of Tatum's shots would be roughly consistent over his career, though he might be defended a little better now (though even this isn't a certainty, as his poor shooting may lead to his being less well-defended, as players more often dare him to prove he can make these shots!).
Anyway, appreciate your getting the final number of slightly less than 1%. This is interesting because it becomes more difficult to simply say, "Tatum's just going through a bad stretch." If it were 10% or 15%, you might still be able to say that with some confidence.
This place has been pointing out the difference between someone hitting threes when the defense leaves them open, versus being a true shooter/elite gravity guy. There is no greater example of that than the Tatum effect on the offense, even with his shot being crap. They have a 109.5 offensive rating when he plays, it drops to 102.5 when he sits. That +7 swing is by far the biggest on the team, Smart is up next at +4.6.
It also tells me they need better shooting, or a better playmaking guard out there with Jaylen when he is the lead guy.
It also tells me they need better shooting, or a better playmaking guard out there with Jaylen when he is the lead guy.
Not to belabor the point, as I do believe there is something beyond pure luck that is affecting Tatum's shot this season. But I've been trying to find similar examples of players that have had season-long shooting slumps in their earlier years. I mentioned Paul Pierce above. Did look at Kobe Bryant as well:
While Kobe was not a volume 3 point shooter in his early years, and was not a deadly 3 point threat (32.9%) by today's standards, he did hoist 959 treys (combined regular season and playoffs) in his first 5 seasons, to the tune of 32.3%, close to his career average. His success rate dropped to 25% over 132 attempts in his age 23 regular season, a 70 point drop similar to what Tatum is experiencing now. Turns out that his slump fortuitously ended in the playoffs that season (37.9%), and he improved to 38.3% over 324 attempts the following year, his first a truly volume 3 shooter for the era.
I have looked at some other players, and clearly a 70 point drop in 3 point percentage early or mid-career is uncommon. But it does happen, indicating that the natural variance may be greater than what the calculator linked above assumes.
While Kobe was not a volume 3 point shooter in his early years, and was not a deadly 3 point threat (32.9%) by today's standards, he did hoist 959 treys (combined regular season and playoffs) in his first 5 seasons, to the tune of 32.3%, close to his career average. His success rate dropped to 25% over 132 attempts in his age 23 regular season, a 70 point drop similar to what Tatum is experiencing now. Turns out that his slump fortuitously ended in the playoffs that season (37.9%), and he improved to 38.3% over 324 attempts the following year, his first a truly volume 3 shooter for the era.
I have looked at some other players, and clearly a 70 point drop in 3 point percentage early or mid-career is uncommon. But it does happen, indicating that the natural variance may be greater than what the calculator linked above assumes.
Yeah, that probably undercuts further the significance of this little jaunt into the world of statistics ... the act of shooting a basketball, in game conditions, doesn't really have enough similarities with circumstances surrounding random outcomes. Still, it was fun!
Maybe it is the beginning of regression/yips. You cannot come to any conclusions over only half a season. Let’s just hope Tatum’s future 3-pt shooting doesn’t look like this 28-yr old All-Stars…..
‘13 - 38.6%
’14 - 40.2%
’15 - 40.9%
’16 - 38.7%
’17 - 40.4%
‘18 - 37.5%
’19 - 35.1%
’20 - 35.3%
’21 - 34.9%
’22 - 30.3%
‘13 - 38.6%
’14 - 40.2%
’15 - 40.9%
’16 - 38.7%
’17 - 40.4%
‘18 - 37.5%
’19 - 35.1%
’20 - 35.3%
’21 - 34.9%
’22 - 30.3%
I don't watch the Wizards enough to know the answer, but didn't Beal's % fall off when Wall vanished and he (Beal) had to shoulder a much heavier load without a secondary scorer? His career usage through 2017 was 24.3, since then it's 30.6. Tatum's usage has gone up steadily each year as well (with Kyrie/Hayward/Kemba vanishing), so who knows. I'm feeling worse than when I started this post.
This is the Tatum thread but since we've been talking about three point shooting...
Boston's team 3-point shooting and offensive rankings, last 6 years:
2016-17 (53-29, 1st in East)
- Points: #7 (108.0)
- Off rating: #8 (111.2)
- 3pt att: #3 (33.4)
- 3pt%: #14 (35.9%)
2017-18 (55-27, 2nd in East)
- Points: #20 (104.0)
- Off rating: #18 (107.6)
- 3pt att: #11 (30.4)
- 3pt%: #2 (37.7%)
2018-19 (49-33, 4th in East)
- Points: #14 (112.4)
- Off rating: #10 (112.2)
- 3pt att: #7 (34.5)
- 3pt%: #7 (36.5%)
2019-20 (48-24, 3rd in East)
- Points: #9 (113.7)
- Off rating: #4 (113.3)
- 3pt att: #13 (34.5)
- 3pt%: #13 (36.4%)
2020-21 (36-36, 7th in East)
- Points: #16 (112.6)
- Off rating: #10 (114.0)
- 3pt att: #10 (36.4)
- 3pt%: #10 (37.4%)
2021-22 (23-23, 9th in East)
- Points: #21 (107.5)
- Off rating: #21 (109.5)
- 3pt att: #14 (35.9)
- 3pt%: #23 (33.8%)
Boston's team 3-point shooting and offensive rankings, last 6 years:
2016-17 (53-29, 1st in East)
- Points: #7 (108.0)
- Off rating: #8 (111.2)
- 3pt att: #3 (33.4)
- 3pt%: #14 (35.9%)
2017-18 (55-27, 2nd in East)
- Points: #20 (104.0)
- Off rating: #18 (107.6)
- 3pt att: #11 (30.4)
- 3pt%: #2 (37.7%)
2018-19 (49-33, 4th in East)
- Points: #14 (112.4)
- Off rating: #10 (112.2)
- 3pt att: #7 (34.5)
- 3pt%: #7 (36.5%)
2019-20 (48-24, 3rd in East)
- Points: #9 (113.7)
- Off rating: #4 (113.3)
- 3pt att: #13 (34.5)
- 3pt%: #13 (36.4%)
2020-21 (36-36, 7th in East)
- Points: #16 (112.6)
- Off rating: #10 (114.0)
- 3pt att: #10 (36.4)
- 3pt%: #10 (37.4%)
2021-22 (23-23, 9th in East)
- Points: #21 (107.5)
- Off rating: #21 (109.5)
- 3pt att: #14 (35.9)
- 3pt%: #23 (33.8%)
I fear that in Tatums head "I am busting my ass on D....and my shot isnt falling...."
One night becomes "I coasted on D a little and my 3pt Shot fell".
Not saying that in actuality one has to do with the other (though maybe working harder on D is a contributor). But IN TATUMS mind...
One night becomes "I coasted on D a little and my 3pt Shot fell".
Not saying that in actuality one has to do with the other (though maybe working harder on D is a contributor). But IN TATUMS mind...
TS for those years
13: .515
14: .507
15: .521
16: .547
17: .604
18: .564
19: .581
20: .579
21: .593
22: .540
Beal's TS% is down bigly this year but I'm sure we'd all take the decline in 3 point % from Tatum if it meant an uptick in efficiency. Also, if the decline was from 39-40% to 35-37%, not 30%. I'm assuming Beal and Tatum will rebound some this year and finish with a 3 point % higher than 30.3 and 31.7 respectively.
The decline in Beal's 3 point shot happens to coincide pretty nicely with the increase in getting to the FT line, which dropped back to pre 18 levels this year. That's probably partly due to the new league rules.
As others have hypothesized, maybe Tatum spend this off season trying to get to the free throw line. His FTA/G are at an all time high... but due to the new rule changes, the increase in FTA wasn't enough to offset the drop in 3 point shooting. In a world where Tatum is getting to the line 8.5 times under the old rules instead of 6.1 with the new, his TS is probably closer to last years. I also think he'll finish the year closer to .350-.360 than .320. HIs off year is probably a combination of variance, bad timing (rule changes), new coach, Olympics and muscle stiffness.
On the positive side: Outside of 16/17, all of Beal's most effective seasons came when he was shooting 35-37% from 3 and all of his least effective seasons came when he was shooting 39-41%.
Just curious.....do we feel he *should coast on D to get the shot to drop?
Does he need to find that sweet spot?
Find another player to help minimize the energy he needs to use on offense and or defense. He probably needs to find the sweet spot too, and know when to exert energy on defense and when to coast.
No that’s ridiculous and nothing has really changed as far as I can tell regarding Tatum’s defensive responsibilities this year. Certainly not enough to do greatly a 23-yr olds shooting imo.
36 games left
Lets say Tatum plays 34 and continues shooting 8.2 3PA/G.
Assuming that, he will have 263 more 3PA. To get back to his career average of .396 going into the year, he would have to hit 131 of them. So for the rest of the season, Tatum would have to go 131/263, .498. About as close to .500 as you can get.
If he got reasonably hot and shot .440 for the rest of the year, he'd finish at .371. If he finished the last 36 games at .396, he'd finish the year at .351. Needless to say, if he does improve from 3, it's going to be awhile before he gets his 3 point % to a respectable number. But also that the season isn't totally lost.
Lets say Tatum plays 34 and continues shooting 8.2 3PA/G.
Assuming that, he will have 263 more 3PA. To get back to his career average of .396 going into the year, he would have to hit 131 of them. So for the rest of the season, Tatum would have to go 131/263, .498. About as close to .500 as you can get.
If he got reasonably hot and shot .440 for the rest of the year, he'd finish at .371. If he finished the last 36 games at .396, he'd finish the year at .351. Needless to say, if he does improve from 3, it's going to be awhile before he gets his 3 point % to a respectable number. But also that the season isn't totally lost.
If he were to hit his career average of 39% the rest of the year, it would mean he would score 87 more points than if he hit them at his current season rate of 31.7%. Comes out to 2.4 ppg, which is significant.
Wouldn't really care what his season percentage ended at if he was able to hit 39% going forward. Not counting on it for this season, though.
Luka is a significantly worse shooter than Tatum, but I remember last year he was basically shooting 29% from three through the end of January and then had an excellent February, March and early April (shot about 43% from three during that stretch) and finished at 35% for the season. Looking at his career splits, Tatum's best 3 point shooting months have been February and March. So, not impossible to imagine. Even if he just shoots 39% as he has in those months previously, it's going to have a significant impact on their ability to win games, especially given how soft their upcoming schedule is.
I think all of the kvetching about Tatum's threes has kind of missed that fact that just in the last few games his drives have improved markedly.
These highlights vs the Pelicans from last week are a good example of what I mean.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csHNhhzvqmc
These highlights vs the Pelicans from last week are a good example of what I mean.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=csHNhhzvqmc
he is really good at the drives and midrange. You can look it up, I have compared him to Bird, in his his ability to shoot over guys, get shots 12-17 feet.
When he's missing wide open shots it seems like a mental thing. He is absorbing a lot of contact, and going to the rim really well. So maybe he has more of banger mindset and it is tough to change to spot up mode. This could lead to early season slow start that has gotten in his mind. His body laguage after misses is so sad if it was a book it would have to be written by a Russian.
When he's missing wide open shots it seems like a mental thing. He is absorbing a lot of contact, and going to the rim really well. So maybe he has more of banger mindset and it is tough to change to spot up mode. This could lead to early season slow start that has gotten in his mind. His body laguage after misses is so sad if it was a book it would have to be written by a Russian.
0-17 over 3 games is apparently the second most all-time behind Michael Adams (0-18).
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33120375/boston-celtics-jayson-tatum-searching-answers-3-point-shooting-drought-tough-loss-hurts
Forsberg with a look at JT's shooting woes: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/celtics/can-fixing-jayson-tatums-3-point-shot-help-save-celtics-season.
One note is that he says he's done a "casual" comparison of form and does not see anything different.
It's concerning to me that JT is missing right and left. If it was just fatigue, he'd be missing short.
One note is that he says he's done a "casual" comparison of form and does not see anything different.
It's concerning to me that JT is missing right and left. If it was just fatigue, he'd be missing short.
Reminder: Tatum shot 8-13 from 2 and 11 of 14 from the line (which included an intentional miss).
Seems like a coach should work with Tatum today to take a couple hundred three pointers. Some of the misses last night were bad
Interesting article where Robert Parish speaks rather frankly about why he thinks the Celtics are struggling. He says Brown and Tatum don't have the ability to make their teammates better. I think there's a lot of truth in that ... of course they're both still young, so they can still figure this out.
He also says the Celtics (1) need to rebound better (agreed) (2) need a distributor (double agreed) (3) lack a defensive presence who can clog the middle, as too many opposing players are getting to the basket too easily.
I think he's a bit off on #3. Williams can do that (and Horford kind of could, if Ime hadn't run him into the ground by playing him too much, as he was shot-blocking and quicker early in the season). I think the problem with players getting to the basket too easily is partly a function of the Celtics' difficulty adjusting to the switch-everything defense, which breaks down too often. (And some of it may be overall lack of defensive effort.)
He also says the Celtics (1) need to rebound better (agreed) (2) need a distributor (double agreed) (3) lack a defensive presence who can clog the middle, as too many opposing players are getting to the basket too easily.
I think he's a bit off on #3. Williams can do that (and Horford kind of could, if Ime hadn't run him into the ground by playing him too much, as he was shot-blocking and quicker early in the season). I think the problem with players getting to the basket too easily is partly a function of the Celtics' difficulty adjusting to the switch-everything defense, which breaks down too often. (And some of it may be overall lack of defensive effort.)
They are a pretty good defensive team. As you said, RW is an elite shot blocker, and Al Horford was having a great defensive year until he was run into the ground (he's still pretty decent on the defensive end). I don't think defense is their problem. Yes, they have defensive breakdowns - every team does. Nobody is able to keep up a good defensive effort for 40+ minutes - they just don't do that, night in and night out. I think there's also something to be said for how much of the offensive weight Tatum and Brown have to carry as well. It wouldn't surprise me if that takes away some of their energy on the defensive end.
You're right on point 3 - the lack of interior defense is part of the defensive scheme. I got sick of counting how many times last night Al or Rob were on a guard on the perimeter with Schroder guarding the paint or Tatum on Nurk. The Celtics rarely are able to generate that kind of mismatch, but it happens to them all the time. I know the defensive numbers are there but I wonder how much of that is due to pace rather than actual defense.
It's not due to pace. Their defensive efficiency, which is measured per possession, is 6th in the NBA.
It happens more than you think but outside of Freedom, the Cs don't really have a big that can punish smaller guys in the post. TL does get a fair number of ORebs when smalls switch on to him.
1st Quarter .429/.318 .495 EFG 46.6% of FGs assisted
2nd Quarter .376/.295 .436 EFG 45.5%
3rd Quarter .445/.315 .507 EFG 39.6%
4th Quarter .428/.338 .486 EFG 39.1%
Heh, he always sucks. I can't find TS%
2nd Quarter .376/.295 .436 EFG 45.5%
3rd Quarter .445/.315 .507 EFG 39.6%
4th Quarter .428/.338 .486 EFG 39.1%
Heh, he always sucks. I can't find TS%
found the TS%
53.2
48.9
56.0
56.3
That's interesting. 2nd Quarter is destroying him. C's generally do well in the 2nd quarter too.
53.2
48.9
56.0
56.3
That's interesting. 2nd Quarter is destroying him. C's generally do well in the 2nd quarter too.
I haven't updated in awhile but if Tatum were hitting 3s at his career rate, he'd have 90 more points this season in 43 games. That's 2.10 points. The Celtics point differential this year is 1.5.
Other teams in that vicinity: Bucks at 3.8 and Grizzles at 3.6. Better than the Nets (2.7) and Bulls (2.2). 3.6 would be tied for 7th.
edit: Also the C's team 3 point % would jump from .337 (24th) to .354 (12th).
Other teams in that vicinity: Bucks at 3.8 and Grizzles at 3.6. Better than the Nets (2.7) and Bulls (2.2). 3.6 would be tied for 7th.
edit: Also the C's team 3 point % would jump from .337 (24th) to .354 (12th).
I know the ROSTER STINKS! is a common mantra around here BUT if you want to narrow down this team's underperformance I'd say its Tatum's 3pt shooting + Rookie Head Coach
From Forsberg's article about Tatum's poor 3pt shooting (pre-Blazers game) this little nugget was tossed in:
the Celtics own the 12th-best point differential in the NBA at plus-1.7. The three teams directly in front of them are all East rivals: Chicago (+2.5), Brooklyn (+2.9), Philadelphia (+3.1).
What’s maybe more interesting is that, per Cleaning the Glass data, Boston’s expected wins (25.6) to this point is essentially three games higher than its actual total. That projection is almost identical to Brooklyn (25.9) and Philadelphia (26.2), and actually ahead of East-leading Chicago (24.8).
Boston’s minus-2.6 win differential is the fourth-worst mark in the league (tied with Minnesota).
Which is why I keep thinking they're not that far off, and keep getting disappointed by games like the last two.
JT today: 18-28, 9-14 from three, 6-6 from the line, 51 points for his 5th career 50+ point game, one more than Larry. Also 10 rebounds and 7 assists.
What had Paul Pierce shown in years 1 through 5 that JT has yet to show?
What had Paul Pierce shown in years 1 through 5 that JT has yet to show?
The ability to consistently get to the FT line (Pierce led the league in total free throw attempts and total free throws made in his 5th season), but that's really it.
And shot .302 from 3 his 5th season despite going into the year as a career .387 3 point shooter. Sounds familiar.
I’d disagree here. Tatum is 8th in the league in FTA and tied for 6th in free throws made this season. That’s not leading the league like Pierce did, but he is showing a consistent ability to get to the line at a rate consistent with being one of the best offensive players in the game.
If he keeps it up all year, yeah. Before leading the league in 2003, Pierce was 2nd in FTs made in 2002 and 3rd in 2001. He had clearly demonstrated that he was one of the best in the league at getting to the line well before his 5th year. I'm cautiously optimistic about Tatum and his ability to get to the FT line, but he's not shown the same ability that Pierce had at the same point in his career.
And he still went to the hoop like a stud.
If he can just get it going for a while that would be great. He seemed in the back to back vs the Knicks to be getting it going, then hit a really rough patch.
I thought the Cs effort off the tip at both ends was much better. I don't think it was the same team that played the Trailblazers.
OK. On the one hand, he's really not in Pierce's league when it comes to getting to the line. With Boston, Pierce averaged 10.3 FTA per 100 possessions (8.3 makes). On the other hand, this year Tatum is at a career high 8.5 FTA per 100 possessions (7.2 makes), so it is clearly something he is adding to his game.