Jayson Tatum 2021-22: Leap Year

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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If we are going to do micro-analysis on small samples, 4-16 from the field is very alarming to me. If Tatum shoots 4-16 for the whole season, he will shoot 25% from the field and that would be objectively terrible.
 

RorschachsMask

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Of all the concerns I have with Tatum, it's his offense that's most problematic for me.

2020-21: 20.6 fga, .459 fg, .386 3ptfg, .530 efg
2021-22: 23.5 fga, .383 fg, .262 3ptfg, .428 efg

So he's shooting WAY worse - even from the line (from .868 in 2020-21 down to .750 in 2021-22). But he's taking a lot more shots. Generally, that's a bad trend. The worse you shoot, the less you should be shooting. He's taken the most shots in the league so far, but is making them at a horrifically bad rate.

That tends to (a) lead to bad offense, and (b) piss the rest of your teammates off. They'll be happy to see him shoot as much as he wants if he's making them and they're winning. But not this crap.
The only way shooters get out of slumps, is shooting out of them. He took 22 shots a game last February, and shot 40/30 from the field. Then it turned around, just like it will do this year, and probably soon. Plus the shots per game are skewed because of all the overtime’s, and SSS.

Of the issues with this team, his offense is the last thing to be concerned about, IMO.
 

Deathofthebambino

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If we are going to do micro-analysis on small samples, 4-16 from the field is very alarming to me. If Tatum shoots 4-16 for the whole season, he will shoot 25% from the field and that would be objectively terrible.
We get it. We should close the forum until we reach 40-50 games in, because there is no use in talking about anything until then. Small sample size and all.
 

BaseballJones

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The only way shooters get out of slumps, is shooting out of them. He took 22 shots a game last February, and shot 40/30 from the field. Then it turned around, just like it will do this year, and probably soon. Plus the shots per game are skewed because of all the overtime’s, and SSS.

Of the issues with this team, his offense is the last thing to be concerned about, IMO.
The way shooters get out of slumps is to TAKE GOOD SHOTS. Not to just "shoot". The biggest mistakes good shooters make when they're missing are (1) stop shooting, or (2) force shots.

Now I haven't watched all the games so maybe someone else can tell me. Is he taking just his regular kind of shots, or does he appear to be forcing things?

The best things good shooters can do to get out of slumps are (1) get to the rim and make more layups and/or get fouled and get to the free throw line, (2) play within the flow of a game and take the good shots that come your way, and (3) seek other ways to help the team while you're not shooting well. From what has been said in this thread, his defense has been poor, so that's problematic. It seems like he's not passing as much and trying to set his teammates up for success. Also problematic.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Its not a wealth of data but perhaps we should be looking at career splits versus eight games to start the season. Its been posted here before but Tatum starts slow.

46131
 

RorschachsMask

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The way shooters get out of slumps is to TAKE GOOD SHOTS. Not to just "shoot". The biggest mistakes good shooters make when they're missing are (1) stop shooting, or (2) force shots.

Now I haven't watched all the games so maybe someone else can tell me. Is he taking just his regular kind of shots, or does he appear to be forcing things?

The best things good shooters can do to get out of slumps are (1) get to the rim and make more layups and/or get fouled and get to the free throw line, (2) play within the flow of a game and take the good shots that come your way, and (3) seek other ways to help the team while you're not shooting well. From what has been said in this thread, his defense has been poor, so that's problematic. It seems like he's not passing as much and trying to set his teammates up for success. Also problematic.
He’s just missing his shots. He’s shooting 47% at the rim, after shooting 74% there last year. He’s getting to the line more per game than he ever has, and he’s shooting 26% from three after coming into the season as a 40% career shooter. In fact, he’s getting more open threes than he’s had since his second season, 3.4 catch and shoot threes a game, after 1.9 last season, and 2.4 the year before.

Heres his last two seasons and then these 8 games as a catch and shoot guy, and pull-up. Will be from 3 years ago to this season.

Catch and shoot- 39.9/44.6%/33.3
Pull up- 40.4%/36.6%/21.6

This is just a case of a guy starting the season slowly, there’s no reason to actually worry about his offense. He’s holding the ball less, dribbling the ball less, and turning the ball over less.

Was listening to a national nba podcast earlier, and they think his start is just bad luck, and also some scheme. He’s running PnR 10% less than he did last season, which is clearly because he’s having to share the floor with Schroder so often. That has been driving me crazy lol, which I’ve been venting about in the analysis thread.
 

BaseballJones

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He’s just missing his shots. He’s shooting 47% at the rim, after shooting 74% there last year. He’s getting to the line more per game than he ever has, and he’s shooting 26% from three after coming into the season as a 40% career shooter. In fact, he’s getting more open threes than he’s had since his second season, 3.4 catch and shoot threes a game, after 1.9 last season, and 2.4 the year before.

Heres his last two seasons and then these 8 games as a catch and shoot guy, and pull-up. Will be from 3 years ago to this season.

Catch and shoot- 39.9/44.6%/33.3
Pull up- 40.4%/36.6%/21.6

This is just a case of a guy starting the season slowly, there’s no reason to actually worry about his offense. He’s holding the ball less, dribbling the ball less, and turning the ball over less.

Was listening to a national nba podcast earlier, and they think his start is just bad luck, and also some scheme. He’s running PnR 10% less than he did last season, which is clearly because he’s having to share the floor with Schroder so often. That has been driving me crazy lol, which I’ve been venting about in the analysis thread.
Ok this is very helpful. Thanks.
 

RorschachsMask

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Ok this is very helpful. Thanks.
No problem, and I wasn’t trying to come off as dismissive with saying he needs to shoot his way out of it, I just think he needs to keep shooting because sooner than later, he’s going to get back into rhythm. And we all know what he does once he gets going.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The best things good shooters can do to get out of slumps are (1) get to the rim and make more layups and/or get fouled and get to the free throw line, (2) play within the flow of a game and take the good shots that come your way, and (3) seek other ways to help the team while you're not shooting well. From what has been said in this thread, his defense has been poor, so that's problematic. It seems like he's not passing as much and trying to set his teammates up for success. Also problematic.
This is what non-scorers say to scorers.

You know how scorers generally respond?

Give me the ball and I'll get you a bucket. :cool:

I think what non-scorers don't get is that when scorers have to think about how to get a bucket, they stop being scorers. I think (based on nothing but my fading memory and no research) that JT's shot selection has been mostly fine. He's missed a lot of open 3Ps. A lot. Hopefully that will change because if not, we're looking at the play-in game. At best.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It’s a ton of guys struggling with their shot so far. Here are the splits for the following players

Dame 34/23
Booker 41/28
Middleton 42/26
Trae 41/28
Luka 42/25
Tatum 38/26
Embiid 41/30

Obviously super SSS and will
correct for all these guys, but that’s crazy so far.
What do all of these perimeter players (let’s exclude Embiid) have in common? Hmmmm

You guys are all really overthinking it. It’s a simple puzzle.
 

BaseballJones

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This is what non-scorers say to scorers.

You know how scorers generally respond?

Give me the ball and I'll get you a bucket. :cool:

I think what non-scorers don't get is that when scorers have to think about how to get a bucket, they stop being scorers. I think (based on nothing but my fading memory and no research) that JT's shot selection has been mostly fine. He's missed a lot of open 3Ps. A lot. Hopefully that will change because if not, we're looking at the play-in game. At best.
I am not an NBA player but I've played in some good men's leagues. I'm a scorer. :)

I also know when I'm forcing bad shots.

If he's missing good looks then that's fine. That'll come around. But if he's forcing bad shots because - as you say - he's not supposed to think about his shot selection, then that's bad basketball, period.

Sounds like he's just missing good looks though, which I can live with.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is what non-scorers say to scorers.

You know how scorers generally respond?

Give me the ball and I'll get you a bucket. :cool:

I think what non-scorers don't get is that when scorers have to think about how to get a bucket, they stop being scorers. I think (based on nothing but my fading memory and no research) that JT's shot selection has been mostly fine. He's missed a lot of open 3Ps. A lot. Hopefully that will change because if not, we're looking at the play-in game. At best.
This is so spot-on. When scorers, or players in general, stop to think they are already screwed. A coach once told me the greatest asset a shooter can have is a bad memory. It is easy to look at some of Tatum’s misses and critique them as bad shots……when he misses. Roll back to tape of some of his 30-40 point games and you’ll see he is making these identical shots.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I am not an NBA player but I've played in some good men's leagues. I'm a scorer. :)

I also know when I'm forcing bad shots.

If he's missing good looks then that's fine. That'll come around. But if he's forcing bad shots because - as you say - he's not supposed to think about his shot selection, then that's bad basketball, period.

Sounds like he's just missing good looks though, which I can live with.
I didn't know we had scorers on SOSH. I thought we were all 3&D types.

At any rate, I'm not a scorer so I'm just telling what I've heard. :)
 

BaseballJones

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This is so spot-on. When scorers, or players in general, stop to think they are already screwed. A coach once told me the greatest asset a shooter can have is a bad memory.
This is crap*. Justifying bad forced shots because scorers "aren't supposed to think" is not good basketball. I want good shooters to keep shooting, but I don't want them to force bad shots. That helps NOBODY. Not even the bad shooters. Because forcing bad shots (mainly out of frustration...that's how it works) means a worse shooting percentage, worse team offense, frustrated teammates, and more losses, which helps nobody.

Good shooters think about where their best spots are on the floor and they work harder to get THERE. And good coaches run plays to help their shooters get to their best spots, particularly when they're not shooting well.

If they're taking good shots, this is a moot discussion, because that's what everyone wants them to keep doing. It's the forcing of bad shots out of frustration that I'm talking about here. And no coach wants this.


*Sorry this is worded so strongly. I don't mean to sound like a jerk and apologies if it comes off that way. I don't think players are supposed to "stop" and think; the brain should be engaged as the game happens. But yeah I do think they should be aware of what's happening on the court and make adjustments accordingly. I call that "thinking". Maybe it's something else.
 

BaseballJones

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I didn't know we had scorers on SOSH. I thought we were all 3&D types.

At any rate, I'm not a scorer so I'm just telling what I've heard. :)
Don't misunderstand. I'm not remotely trying to compare myself to an NBA player. But whatever level we play - men's league, pick up, you name it - there are people who are "scorers" and people who are not. I just happen to be one who is. I am not a ball handler however. We all have our strengths. :)
 

Deathofthebambino

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I've watched every minute of every game this year, and I agree that Tatum isn't taking bad shots. Like not at all. I wish he would go to the rim more, but for the most part, he's taking open looks and rarely forcing things. And the ones he is "forcing" are shots he can make when he's playing well. I mean, it'd be nice if everyone got open looks all the time, but this is the NBA and there is another team on the floor. Tatum's shot selection has been bad in the past with the ISO's, stepbacks, long 2's, but for the most part this year, that hasn't been the issue. He's just missing them.

I do wonder if the added bulk is something he is still getting used to though. I'm certainly not an NBA player, but I played QB, pitched and basketball through high school, and if I tried to shoot or throw after working out, the ball or bat or whatever felt like a feather, and while it made it easier to throw harder, it certainly made it harder to be accurate. Eventually, I switched to doing workouts after practice and games, as opposed to beforehand or earlier in the same day. I can imagine putting on that kind of bulk in the shoulders will take time to get used to. I also think he's in his head a bit now. You can almost see him thinking about whether to shoot or pass or drive in real time, whereas before it seemed to be more instinctual, which is another reason why I thought Smart's comments were so ill-timed. The last thing you want is a guy like Tatum who can score like only a dozen people in the world can do, thinking about what his teammates are thinking of him every time he takes a shot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is crap*. Justifying bad forced shots because scorers "aren't supposed to think" is not good basketball. I want good shooters to keep shooting, but I don't want them to force bad shots. That helps NOBODY. Not even the bad shooters. Because forcing bad shots (mainly out of frustration...that's how it works) means a worse shooting percentage, worse team offense, frustrated teammates, and more losses, which helps nobody.

Good shooters think about where their best spots are on the floor and they work harder to get THERE. And good coaches run plays to help their shooters get to their best spots, particularly when they're not shooting well.

If they're taking good shots, this is a moot discussion, because that's what everyone wants them to keep doing. It's the forcing of bad shots out of frustration that I'm talking about here. And no coach wants this.


*Sorry this is worded so strongly. I don't mean to sound like a jerk and apologies if it comes off that way. I don't think players are supposed to "stop" and think; the brain should be engaged as the game happens. But yeah I do think they should be aware of what's happening on the court and make adjustments accordingly. I call that "thinking". Maybe it's something else.
Who is advocating taking “bad shots?” I’m referring to Tatum, or any scorer, taking their normal shot without “thinking” about the most recent results.

What may look like a bad shot on the tv is often the best shot available in that set against NBA defenses and the shot clock.

Edit: Eh no worries. We’ve all been here long enough to know it’s not personal. We are passionate about our team.
 

BaseballJones

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Who is advocating taking “bad shots?” I’m referring to Tatum, or any scorer, taking their normal shot without “thinking” about the most recent results.

What may look like a bad shot on the tv is often the best shot available in that set against NBA defenses and the shot clock.

Edit: Eh no worries. We’ve all been here long enough to know it’s not personal. We are passionate about our team.
Then we are in agreement. We want Tatum to take his good normal shots. I've said that from the beginning. What sometimes happens, though, is that scorers or shooters (not the same thing necessarily) get frustrated when the ball doesn't go in the basket, and either they stop shooting (mistake #1) or they start forcing bad shots (mistake #2). I'm saying that the best thing for him and the team is for him to find his way to his best shots. I said this in post #154.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jayson-tatum-2021-22-leap-year.34889/post-4722127

So I think we're on the same page here, in reality.
 

Fishy1

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He’s just missing his shots. He’s shooting 47% at the rim, after shooting 74% there last year. He’s getting to the line more per game than he ever has, and he’s shooting 26% from three after coming into the season as a 40% career shooter. In fact, he’s getting more open threes than he’s had since his second season, 3.4 catch and shoot threes a game, after 1.9 last season, and 2.4 the year before.

Heres his last two seasons and then these 8 games as a catch and shoot guy, and pull-up. Will be from 3 years ago to this season.

Catch and shoot- 39.9/44.6%/33.3
Pull up- 40.4%/36.6%/21.6

This is just a case of a guy starting the season slowly, there’s no reason to actually worry about his offense. He’s holding the ball less, dribbling the ball less, and turning the ball over less.

Was listening to a national nba podcast earlier, and they think his start is just bad luck, and also some scheme. He’s running PnR 10% less than he did last season, which is clearly because he’s having to share the floor with Schroder so often. That has been driving me crazy lol, which I’ve been venting about in the analysis thread.
Really encouraged to see Tatum is taking more open threes than he has in some time. That squares with what I've seen: that the ball movement is improving, that having Horford and Schroder rather than Kemba and TT is opening the floor -- and once he starts making those, the league better watch out. I remember feeling like I'd never seen these Celtics take -- and miss -- so many open 3's as they did in the Knicks game.

I think this team is going to go on a huge run, and it will start when Tatum gets hot.
 

Fishy1

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Then we are in agreement. We want Tatum to take his good normal shots. I've said that from the beginning. What sometimes happens, though, is that scorers or shooters (not the same thing necessarily) get frustrated when the ball doesn't go in the basket, and either they stop shooting (mistake #1) or they start forcing bad shots (mistake #2). I'm saying that the best thing for him and the team is for him to find his way to his best shots. I said this in post #154.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jayson-tatum-2021-22-leap-year.34889/post-4722127

So I think we're on the same page here, in reality.
Some of the confusion is probably coming from the fact that a lot of bad shots for other players can be good shots for Tatum. In general, he's cooking, abnd side-step threes are not a bad shot -- but they certainly looked bad when they're not going in, as they haven't been at the start of the season.

I have mixed feelings about his mid-range game, on the other hand. I wish he took less of them -- as he shoots about the same from the mid-range as he does from three point land, and the shots are obviously worth way less -- but I understand that to open up the floor he has to take some. But until he starts making them like Kevin Durant (or even Jaylen Brown!), his mid-range shooting will continue to be frustrating.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Then we are in agreement. We want Tatum to take his good normal shots. I've said that from the beginning. What sometimes happens, though, is that scorers or shooters (not the same thing necessarily) get frustrated when the ball doesn't go in the basket, and either they stop shooting (mistake #1) or they start forcing bad shots (mistake #2). I'm saying that the best thing for him and the team is for him to find his way to his best shots. I said this in post #154.

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/jayson-tatum-2021-22-leap-year.34889/post-4722127

So I think we're on the same page here, in reality.
I think the large majority of fans, not necessarily you, base decide what was a “good” shot and a “bad” shot by its result.
 

Jimbodandy

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Its not a wealth of data but perhaps we should be looking at career splits versus eight games to start the season. Its been posted here before but Tatum starts slow.

View attachment 46131
Eh. The list of guys posted a few posts above yours are all guys that can shoot too. If anyone said "hey maybe Dame sucks now", I think that we'd all have a good laugh. But when it's our own guy, I guess we have to chill with it.

Just remember that he always figures it out. Once that happens, we can return to discussing how much he sucks defensively.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Eh. The list of guys posted a few posts above yours are all guys that can shoot too. If anyone said "hey maybe Dame sucks now", I think that we'd all have a good laugh. But when it's our own guy, I guess we have to chill with it.

Just remember that he always figures it out. Once that happens, we can return to discussing how much he sucks defensively.
I don't begrudge anyone for being frustrated with this team or any of its component parts. I even understand some of the criticisms of Tatum like "soft" (even when its coming from people who watch and don't play) even if I absolutely do not agree.

However we have a body of work which suggests that not only will Jayson Tatum improve from his current woeful offensive production but that he typically starts slow during the first few months of the season. Its pretty stark too but instead of acknowledging it, we ignore it and go right to stuff like talk show theories about Tatum partying too much in Washington or that he cares more about fashion or his stats than winning.

In short, we ignore the ample, easy to find evidence that might help explain Tatum's slow start and go right to the causes for which there is virtually no supporting case. We are talk radio with fewer 30 second spots and more callers.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don't begrudge anyone for being frustrated with this team or any of its component parts. I even understand some of the criticisms of Tatum like "soft" (even when its coming from people who watch and don't play) even if I absolutely do not agree.

However we have a body of work which suggests that not only will Jayson Tatum improve from his current woeful offensive production but that he typically starts slow during the first few months of the season. Its pretty stark too but instead of acknowledging it, we ignore it and go right to stuff like talk show theories about Tatum partying too much in Washington or that he cares more about fashion or his stats than winning.

In short, we ignore the ample, easy to find evidence that might help explain Tatum's slow start and go right to the causes for which there is virtually no supporting case. We are talk radio with fewer 30 second spots and more callers.
It has been rough lately. This happens with the losses. Mookie thread on the main board went gangbusters near the end of the 162, when the team was limping to the finish line. It's understandable. People expect better.

I do wish that posts could be autocorrected when referencing a mainstream sports talk show here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’d like to go back to prior Olympics and see how these players fared both to the begin the season and overall that year. It is somewhat worrisome as injury is what can occur more easily after fatigue.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't begrudge anyone for being frustrated with this team or any of its component parts. I even understand some of the criticisms like "soft" (even when its coming from people who watch and don't play) even if I absolutely do not agree.

However we have a body of work which suggests that not only will Jayson Tatum improve from his current woeful offensive production but that he typically starts slow during the first few months of the season. Its pretty stark too but instead of acknowledging it, we ignore it and go right to stuff like talk show theories about Tatum partying too much in Washington or that he cares more about fashion or his stats than winning.

In short, we ignore the ample, easy to find evidence that might help explain Tatum's slow start and go right to the causes for which there is virtually no supporting case. We are talk radio with fewer 30 second spots and more callers.
People have been talking about Tatum stat padding for well over a year. I agree with you on the shooting % talk anyway. There are lots of things to complain about but complaining about shooting % 8 games in is funny. Someone was worried about Al Horford after he started the season 1/9 in 2 games. There's a 6 year sample with 1362 attempts and a .366% 3pt %. Maybe use that. Since that start, he's 9/24, .375.

If people want to argue about lack of playmaking, the Jays maybe not being the best fit, roster construction, team need, the coach... that's what the board is here for. Complaining about the shooting % of Tatum and Brown, meh. Smart is fair game because there's a huge sample size of games that say we should worry about Marcus Smart's shooting. JRich, DS, same boat. If you want to worry about Tatum (and Brown), worry about the D or the inconsistent playmaking.

Most of the time, the board is pretty fair tho. It's game by game analysis. I haven't seen anyone calling for Ime to be fired and there's maybe 2 posters worried about Jayson Tatum's shooting %. Most of the comments are about what's happened rather than trying to predict the future.
 

lovegtm

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The Tatum-in-the-post stuff is cute, but there is only one place where Jayson Tatum consistently draws doubles and warps the defense: behind the 3-point line, with the threat of shooting off a screen or on a sidestep. It was nice to see Ime lean on that hard.
 

RorschachsMask

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The Tatum-in-the-post stuff is cute, but there is only one place where Jayson Tatum consistently draws doubles and warps the defense: behind the 3-point line, with the threat of shooting off a screen or on a sidestep. It was nice to see Ime lean on that hard.
I think Ime just has the bully ball thing twisted. It’s hard to create much leverage backing a guy down in the post, it’s not really a great use of Tatum’s upper body strength.

Get the guy in space, and going downhill. Him with a head of steam driving to the rim is how his physical strength is maximized. This part is scheme, but Tatum is running PnR 10% less than last season, Ime needs to adjust that ASAP.
 

SteveF

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Here's a look at Tatum's shot distribution the last three seasons:

Year​
Shot quality​
Rim Frequency​
Short Midrange Frequency (4-14ft)​
Long Midrange Frequency (14ft-3pt. line)​
2019-2020​
51%​
28.55%​
20.23%​
12.97%​
2020-2021​
49%​
24.43%​
23.98%​
14.80%​
2021-2022​
51%​
25.36%​
19.43%​
15.76%​

Edit: 2021-2022 numbers updated and accurate as of games played prior to 1/17/22.
 
Last edited:

reggiecleveland

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Tatum is the problem. He isn't making shots but also isn't about to stop shooting.

After the opening night disaster, Tatum shot over 50% the next three games, After that streak, he has shot over 50% once in the last 9 games. In those 9 games, he has been under 40% 6 times and right at 40 on two others. So other than Dallas the best we get is 40% shooting. He has scored fewer points than shots (I think they call this putrid accomplishment "A FInal Year Kobe") 6 of those 9 games and has scored only 1or 2 more points than shots twice.

All this analysis shows as he is defended harder he simply takes more difficult shots. He has a quota. Whatever is happening he will get his shots. There will be no press conferences about how he needs to adjust to a new system, to get his shots, because he will take shots whether they are there or not. He has taken 25 shots 4 times, and scored 30 or more points in one of those games. That's awful.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Without Brown in the lineup, the C's really only have two scorers, so Tatum's going to put up shots (and should) regardless of how his night is going.
The problem with Tatum is not in the number of shots but the quality. He's simultaneously taking a lot of shots that he isn;t going to hit at a high percentage and missing open shots that he should be able to hit.
 

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The problem with Tatum is not in the number of shots but the quality. He's simultaneously taking a lot of shots that he isn;t going to hit at a high percentage and missing open shots that he should be able to hit.
Agreed on the open shots, and I'm confident he'll start making them. To my eye he's always taken a fair number of low quality shots, and one of his strengths is that he's much better than most at making those. Not so much so far this year. Maybe this is Ime's fault too.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Agreed on the open shots, and I'm confident he'll start making them. To my eye he's always taken a fair number of low quality shots, and one of his strengths is that he's much better than most at making those. Not so much so far this year. Maybe this is Ime's fault too.
It's the organizations fault. Teams have been defending the C's the same way since near the beginning of last year. The C's haven't adjusted.
 

chilidawg

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The problem with Tatum is not in the number of shots but the quality. He's simultaneously taking a lot of shots that he isn;t going to hit at a high percentage and missing open shots that he should be able to hit.
Tatum's shot distribution in terms of how well he's covered (nearest defender) is about the same as last year, but his shooting percentages are down across the board, 52% to 38% for instance on wide open 3's. At some point you've got to figure those numbers will normalize to his past.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&CloseDefDistRange=6+ Feet - Wide Open&sort=FG3A_FREQUENCY&dir=1
 

Kliq

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Tatum's shot distribution in terms of how well he's covered (nearest defender) is about the same as last year, but his shooting percentages are down across the board, 52% to 38% for instance on wide open 3's. At some point you've got to figure those numbers will normalize to his past.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/shots-closest-defender-10/?Season=2020-21&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738&CloseDefDistRange=6+ Feet - Wide Open&sort=FG3A_FREQUENCY&dir=1
Part of it would also be the new rules; Tatum isn't the only formerly elite scorer struggling with the changes to foul calls and how physical defenses are allowed to be. I imagine given his physical advantages he will adjust and learn.
 

Cesar Crespo

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% of shots that are within 0-3
18: 32.0%
19: 26.1%
20: 24.8%
21: 19.7%
22: 16.5%

not that good a trend, especially since he's taking less 3 pointers as well. Also after hitting 73.5% of his 0-3ft shots last year, he's at .542 this year. His career low is .618, is 3rd season.

% of 2PFG that were assisted:
18: .565
19: .497
20. .433
21: .383
22. .316

Some of that is expected as he shifted from developing player to "the guy" but I wonder how much the lack of a real PG is hurting him. Brown being out also doesn't help, though Tatum was struggling even while Brown was around.

I'd have to look but I'm guessing they have one of the worst supporting cast of 3 point shooters. I don't see that changing much even when Horford returns to form. We can dream on Nesmith and PP. There are a lot of contributing factors.
 

SteveF

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but I wonder how much the lack of a real PG is hurting him.
I saw those numbers and had the same thought. We're to the point where I don't think he can start effective possessions consistently with the ball in his hand, and I'm not sure I want him getting passes without already being on the move. I'd like to see him in more DHOs. And if he needs to start with the ball in his hands, it should be in PnR.
 

chilidawg

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I saw those numbers and had the same thought. We're to the point where I don't think he can start effective possessions consistently with the ball in his hand, and I'm not sure I want him getting passes without already being on the move. I'd like to see him in more DHOs. And if he needs to start with the ball in his hands, it should be in PnR.
Somebody forward this to Ime.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Most of Tatum's time in Boston the Celtics haven't had true PGs. Also, he's missing open threes. The deep funk is hard to explain, but it' not having Kemba around for 2/3 of the games.
 

SteveF

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Most of Tatum's time in Boston the Celtics haven't had true PGs.
I completely and vehemently disagree with this assessment. Kyrie and Kemba are (well, were in Kemba's case) pretty good point guards. They may be score first guys, but they were decent passers and initiators of offense, and could make effective plays when drawing two.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I completely and vehemently disagree with this assessment. Kyrie and Kemba are (well, were in Kemba's case) pretty good point guards. They may be score first guys, but they were decent passers and initiators of offense, and could make effective plays when drawing two.
Was Tatum only good in the games Kemba played last year?
 

Devizier

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There was a pretty long string of possessions until the game was iced when Tatum just ran to the corner and played decoy. And honestly, it was the right call. The Schroeder, Smart, Horford plays were working much better, attacking the rim much more aggressively. Even Marcus’ step back seemed like a better choice than a lot of Tatum’s attempts tonight.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Most of Tatum's time in Boston the Celtics haven't had true PGs. Also, he's missing open threes. The deep funk is hard to explain, but it' not having Kemba around for 2/3 of the games.
The funk isn’t that hard to explain with so many others from the Olympics off to similar starts shooting the ball.

Booker began 10-36 shooting three’s, Lillard is at 27%, Jrue is 32%, LaVine 36% (down from 42 last year), Doncic 31%, Middleton 26%……so Tatum’s 32% doesn’t seem out of line with other Olympic perimeter players to begin the year following an abnormal offseason.
 

luckiestman

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The funk isn’t that hard to explain with so many others from the Olympics off to similar starts shooting the ball.

Booker began 10-36 shooting three’s, Lillard is at 27%, Jrue is 32%, LaVine 36% (down from 42 last year), Doncic 31%, Middleton 26%……so Tatum’s 32% doesn’t seem out of line with other Olympic perimeter players to begin the year following an abnormal offseason.

This is an interesting observation, what is the explanation as to why this would be affecting shooters this way? Is this something that has happened after other Olympic games?
 

luckiestman

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The funk isn’t that hard to explain with so many others from the Olympics off to similar starts shooting the ball.

Booker began 10-36 shooting three’s, Lillard is at 27%, Jrue is 32%, LaVine 36% (down from 42 last year), Doncic 31%, Middleton 26%……so Tatum’s 32% doesn’t seem out of line with other Olympic perimeter players to begin the year following an abnormal offseason.

This is an interesting observation, what is the explanation as to why this would be affecting shooters this way? Is this something that has happened after other Olympic games?
 

HomeRunBaker

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This is an interesting observation, what is the explanation as to why this would be affecting shooters this way? Is this something that has happened after other Olympic games?
I don’t know but we haven’t had players rely on 3-pt shooting in prior Olympic years as we do now. Repetitions and getting shots up is a big part of building muscle memory on distance shots. Trying to make sense of it all…..the players likely didn’t work following the season, instead choosing to rest then playing in the Olympic Games. Following these Games and knowing that a long season was ahead of them it isn’t likely that they worked much on their shooting prior to training camp, instead choosing to rest their bodies. All this is speculating but that seems likely to how their prep played out this summer.