Jaylen Brown: Will he be enough in Year 8?

Ed Hillel

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Imo people just remember Jaylen turnovers more, because of Miami G7 PTSD.
This is not true, people have been beating the drum about Jaylen's turnovers and offensive approach for years. It's also been a part of the national media consensus on him, so it's not like this is something that morphed into existence after Game 7 last year, though certainly that did not help.

The trade talk can be left for another day.
 

lovegtm

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Brown missing the 40/50 point wins vs. Memphis/Bklyn has crushed his On-Off (-7.7)*, which probably feeds right into DARKO.

I'm going to enjoy JB this season, but wouldn't be shocked if Brad values KP/White fit with Tatum more.
Jrue's 3pt shooting is starting to become a bigger part of the offense, and I expect a ~$30MM/yr extension for Holiday in April.

I hope Wyc receives the benefits of paying massive taxes with an asset value increase.

*BRef #, not CTG
His on/off is a bit misleading imo: I'm usually more concerned with whether a player is part of positive lineups. Otherwise, you're penalizing a guy for being part of a really good starting unit.

Concrete example:
Jokic and Murray are great together: +12.65.

Jokic is ok without Murray: +4.11.

Murray lineups without Jokic are awful: -15.14 in 297 minutes.

By contrast:
JB + JT: +7.45 (not as good as I would have thought)

JT without JB: +15.34 (killing other team's bench+starters units)

JB without JT: +6.45 (note that that's a good deal better than Jokic does with non-Murray units, a testament to Boston's depth, but also an indicator of how good JB is and how well he complements that depth).

Conclusion
Imo, this type of breakdown is a lot more useful than on/off. Darko, as an all-in-one stat, doesn't capture this stuff as well, and it's more relevant for team and lineup building.
 

benhogan

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If they win a Championship there's no way he's getting traded.
It would be odd since the NBA narrative is Tatum & Brown's Show

BUT it depends on what is offered, how he performs in the playoffs, taxes, Brad's analysis, etc.

Funny enough his contract (5yrs with no option) has quite a bit of value to destinations that struggle to attract All-NBA players
 

lexrageorge

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Seems like a lot of recency bias due to a bad shooting month in February, SSS influenced on/off numbers, and 10 turnovers the last 2 games.
 

RorschachsMask

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I think Jaylen is playing the right way still, even if the turnovers have been up recently.

At some point though, we need him to be more efficient. Teams concede open threes to Jaylen, he needs to start hitting them at a better rate. It’s why I’ve been concerned about his catch and shoot numbers.

TS amongst the main rotation players.

Porzingis- 66.2%
Al- 62.8%
Hauser 62.8%
White- 61.1%
Tatum- 60.5%
Holiday- 59.1%
Pritchard- 57.9%
Jaylen- 57.4%, after only 58.1% last year, and 57.4% two seasons ago.

Obviously the numbers for Pritch, Hauser, and Al are inflated by shot selection/role, but 57.4% is just not good enough for someone on Jaylen’s volume.
 
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benhogan

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His on/off is a bit misleading imo: I'm usually more concerned with whether a player is part of positive lineups. Otherwise, you're penalizing a guy for being part of a really good starting unit.

Concrete example:
Jokic and Murray are great together: +12.65.

Jokic is ok without Murray: +4.11.

Murray lineups without Jokic are awful: -15.14 in 297 minutes.

By contrast:
JB + JT: +7.45 (not as good as I would have thought)

JT without JB: +15.34 (killing other team's bench+starters units)

JB without JT: +6.45 (note that that's a good deal better than Jokic does with non-Murray units, a testament to Boston's depth, but also an indicator of how good JB is and how well he complements that depth).

Conclusion
Imo, this type of breakdown is a lot more useful than on/off. Darko, as an all-in-one stat, doesn't capture this stuff as well, and it's more relevant for team and lineup building.
Thanks for posting that, agree more context helps.

The top two 3-Man groups (out of the top 20 in minutes played)
KP/White/Brown is a +14.5
KP/White/Tatum is a + 14.8

My eye test says Joe's effective use of rotations + KP/White have had a large impact on those Tatum off-the-floor numbers (more than Jaylen Brown's slight improvement in play)

If Wyc says the $$$ isn't there, & other NBA teams think Jaylen Brown is the 1B to Tatum's 1A, then Brad may get an overpay in a trade (which I believe you agree with)

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced?GroupQuantity=3&TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&slug=advanced&sort=MIN
 

lexrageorge

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If Wyc says the $$$ isn't there, & other NBA teams think Jaylen Brown is the 1B to Tatum's 1A, then Brad may get an overpay in a trade (which I believe you agree with)
There's been zero evidence of this being a possibility.
 

benhogan

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There's been zero evidence of this being a possibility.
Agreed that there is zero evidence of Wyc being cheap or running out of $$$/asset value
(he can do a Cuban divestment/while retaining control).

BUT there is a possibility he may not want to pay a ginormous tax in 2025-26 when Tatum's Super Max kicks in.
 

Auger34

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Teams concede open threes to Jaylen
I haven’t witnessed this at all and it seems incredibly off the mark. Teams aren’t conceding open 3’s to him nor are they making it a game plan to give open 3’s.

I’m curious as to how you came up with this other than conflating catch and shoot 3’s with conceding open 3’s.
 

RorschachsMask

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I haven’t witnessed this at all and it seems incredibly off the mark. Teams aren’t conceding open 3’s to him nor are they making it a game plan to give open 3’s.

I’m curious as to how you came up with this other than conflating catch and shoot 3’s with conceding open 3’s.
8.4% of his shots are considered tightly contested threes. Just for comparison sake, it’s 15.4% for Tatum.

Some of that is shot selection I’m sure, but the numbers paint a pretty clear picture. It’s not a knock, teams just can’t stop everything.
 

bigq

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Championships always put a halt to trade talks. If we won last year I’m pretty certain Smart would still be a Celtic.
I am a huge Smart fan but I like this year’s team so much more than the previous version so I guess I’m finally okay with the Celtics falling short of the championship last year.
 

lovegtm

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Championships always put a halt to trade talks. If we won last year I’m pretty certain Smart would still be a Celtic.
I agree, but I wonder whether Brad would go the exact opposite direction. "Ok, Jaylen got paid, got a ring, his value has never been harder.....and we won a title, so I can do whatever I want. I'm Brad Keith Hernandez."
 

lars10

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I agree, but I wonder whether Brad would go the exact opposite direction. "Ok, Jaylen got paid, got a ring, his value has never been harder.....and we won a title, so I can do whatever I want. I'm Brad Keith Hernandez."
I think he’d try to win two.. one thing he’s done with each trade is try to get better. Perhaps they get a haul trading Jaylen, but would it be worth it with the chemistry of the team being as it is.. seems pretty huge on a basketball roster especially with how few players there are.
 

koufax32

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Complete hypothetical that may belong in another thread, but I was thinking this morning:

What if MIL continues to slide under Doc and they wildly underperform?
And what if Giannis gets so sick of it he starts hinting about wanting out?
And what if BOS doesn’t win the title this year and Brad doesn’t want to run it back?

What would a Brown/Giannis centered swap have to look like to make it feasible for both teams? Brown is two years younger. How much, if at all, does that offset the talent disparity? What would have to be added to make it possible? Would someone else have the reasonable ability to beat a JB centered offer? A healthy C’s with GA replacing JB would leave a mushroom cloud over the carcass of the entire league.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Hopefully JB got some rest over the break; he looked gassed to me. It would be great if he could get his ATB 3Ps back up in the mid-30%; since January 1, he's 18-65 (27.7%).

And as a statistical quirk I just noticed, JB is 11-29 (37.5%) on both right corner 3Ps and left corner 3Ps thus far this year. Talk about an equal opportunity shooter. :)
 

TripleOT

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Hopefully JB got some rest over the break; he looked gassed to me. It would be great if he could get his ATB 3Ps back up in the mid-30%; since January 1, he's 18-65 (27.7%).

And as a statistical quirk I just noticed, JB is 11-29 (37.5%) on both right corner 3Ps and left corner 3Ps thus far this year. Talk about an equal opportunity shooter. :)
He looked pretty fresh dominating the Knicks’s defense at MSG, going 9-12 for 20 first half points in 17 minutes, on his way to a 30-8-3 night without turning the ball over. (3-9 from deep, after hitting two of four in the first half).
 

InstaFace

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He looked pretty fresh dominating the Knicks’s defense at MSG, going 9-12 for 20 first half points in 17 minutes, on his way to a 30-8-3 night without turning the ball over.
Hart and DiVincenzo were really attacking his dribble on his drives, they almost turned him over once but couldn't quite get it done. He passed out of it a few times when the swipes got too much.

Very good game last night from him.
 

Eddie Jurak

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54% on fadeaways is ridiculous halfcourt offense, particularly since he has the added equity of driving, stepthroughs, pump fakes, and passes out of it.
He's shooting 0.495 on all shots between 3 and 16 feet, which is 36.7% of his total shots. Only 40% of his 2 point shots are assisted, which is a career low for him.
 

Bunt Single

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Hart and DiVincenzo were really attacking his dribble on his drives...
Yeah, I have to believe this has become part of the "book" on Jalen: attack his dribble. To the extent that he learns how to deal with this, his game will get that much more complete.
And one thing about Jalen has been: he consistently learns, consistently and methodically works on those aspects of his game that he wants to improve.
 

lovegtm

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He's shooting 0.495 on all shots between 3 and 16 feet, which is 36.7% of his total shots. Only 40% of his 2 point shots are assisted, which is a career low for him.
Given the added equity of fouls, passes and stepthroughs on those shots, as well as lowered efficiency in the halfcourt in general, that's quite good imo.
 

InstaFace

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Yeah, I have to believe this has become part of the "book" on Jalen: attack his dribble. To the extent that he learns how to deal with this, his game will get that much more complete.
And one thing about Jalen has been: he consistently learns, consistently and methodically works on those aspects of his game that he wants to improve.
As much as I've rolled my eyes at every single time he's lost the ball by dribbling into traffic, even I have to admit that it's a lot less frequent this year. His overall turnovers per game are down from 2.9 to 2.4, I could do the math on "lost ball" turnovers but either way he's made improvements.
 

Euclis20

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As much as I've rolled my eyes at every single time he's lost the ball by dribbling into traffic, even I have to admit that it's a lot less frequent this year. His overall turnovers per game are down from 2.9 to 2.4, I could do the math on "lost ball" turnovers but either way he's made improvements.
Bref has it easily enough: 1.01 lost ball turnovers per game last year, 0.88 lost ball turnovers this year. Considering his decline in usage this doesn't seem like much, but still.
 

Auger34

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He's shooting 0.495 on all shots between 3 and 16 feet, which is 36.7% of his total shots. Only 40% of his 2 point shots are assisted, which is a career low for him.
I don’t think this changes any of the original post? That means he’s driving more on his own. How does that change being better with moves on drives or passing more?
 

RSN Diaspora

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I was listening to John Karalis on my drive in this morning, and he raised an interesting point--Jaylen has been awful this season on wide-open threes, hitting only 28% of 3PAs with six feet or more of space to shoot, down from 39% last year. It explains GSW's first quarter strategy (though not why they didn't adjust), but it would be interesting to see if this was just an uncharacteristically good night for JB from three, or whether the numbers don't tell the whole story and he's been working to improve.
 

lovegtm

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I was listening to John Karalis on my drive in this morning, and he raised an interesting point--Jaylen has been awful this season on wide-open threes, hitting only 28% of 3PAs with six feet or more of space to shoot, down from 39% last year. It explains GSW's first quarter strategy (though not why they didn't adjust), but it would be interesting to see if this was just an uncharacteristically good night for JB from three, or whether the numbers don't tell the whole story and he's been working to improve.
There's a big difference between a "wide open" catch-and-shoot 3 and "stand there for awhile, get set, and put it up." It's like the difference between a hanging slider and batting practice.
 

DannyDarwinism

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I was listening to John Karalis on my drive in this morning, and he raised an interesting point--Jaylen has been awful this season on wide-open threes, hitting only 28% of 3PAs with six feet or more of space to shoot, down from 39% last year. It explains GSW's first quarter strategy (though not why they didn't adjust), but it would be interesting to see if this was just an uncharacteristically good night for JB from three, or whether the numbers don't tell the whole story and he's been working to improve.
NBA.com has those wide open 3s as 6.5% of his 3pt attempts, so that's about 20 attempts total on the season. He's at 39.4% for "open" 3s (closest defender between 4-6 feet away), which are a third of his 3pt attempts. It's possible they saw something in his mechanics or something when he has a ton of time to shoot, but choosing to leave Jaylen Brown wide open based off of a 31 shot sample would be a very bad decision.


Edit read it wrong the first time- wide open 3s are 6.5% of his attempts, so about 20 attempts on the year.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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I was listening to John Karalis on my drive in this morning, and he raised an interesting point--Jaylen has been awful this season on wide-open threes, hitting only 28% of 3PAs with six feet or more of space to shoot, down from 39% last year. It explains GSW's first quarter strategy (though not why they didn't adjust), but it would be interesting to see if this was just an uncharacteristically good night for JB from three, or whether the numbers don't tell the whole story and he's been working to improve.
Probably a SSS anomaly.

The now 30.1% on wide open 3Ps is based on 68 attempts. Last year, he was 34-87 or 39.1%.

This year, JB is 66-166 (39.8%) on open 3Ps (i.e., defender within 4-6 feet of him).

And just for fun, while we know that JB is 64-184 (34.8%) on catch and shoot 3Ps, he's also:
  • 8-25 (32%) when shooting 3Ps after one dribble
  • 2-12 (16.7%) when shooting 3Ps after two dribbles
  • 25-55 (45.5%) when shooting 3Ps after 3-6 dribbles and
  • 12-29 (30.8%) when shooting 3Ps after 6+ dribbles
I'm pretty sure if I were a NBA coach, I wouldn't be basing defensive strategy on trying to these stats either.
 

InstaFace

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Probably a SSS anomaly.

The now 30.1% on wide open 3Ps is based on 68 attempts. Last year, he was 34-87 or 39.1%.

This year, JB is 66-166 (39.8%) on open 3Ps (i.e., defender within 4-6 feet of him).

And just for fun, while we know that JB is 64-184 (34.8%) on catch and shoot 3Ps, he's also:
  • 8-25 (32%) when shooting 3Ps after one dribble
  • 2-12 (16.7%) when shooting 3Ps after two dribbles
  • 25-55 (45.5%) when shooting 3Ps after 3-6 dribbles and
  • 12-29 (30.8%) when shooting 3Ps after 6+ dribbles
I'm pretty sure if I were a NBA coach, I wouldn't be basing defensive strategy on trying to these stats either.
"ok, here's the deal - when you see the second dribble come down off his hand, back up two steps and invite him to shoot it. Two shall be the number of the dribbles, and the number of the dribbles shall be two. Three thou shalt not permit a shot from, nor one, excepting that he then proceeds to the second..."
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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"ok, here's the deal - when you see the second dribble come down off his hand, back up two steps and invite him to shoot it. Two shall be the number of the dribbles, and the number of the dribbles shall be two. Three thou shalt not permit a shot from, nor one, excepting that he then proceeds to the second..."
Very nice pull.
 

Smokey Joe

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"ok, here's the deal - when you see the second dribble come down off his hand, back up two steps and invite him to shoot it. Two shall be the number of the dribbles, and the number of the dribbles shall be two. Three thou shalt not permit a shot from, nor one, excepting that he then proceeds to the second..."
If thou allowist the third dribble, he shall rise up and lobbest the holy orb at our goal, And thou, being naughty in my sight, shall be benched.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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I know the focus is on Tatum right now, because it's easier to find things to say about poor performances than good ones (and I'm guilty of it as much as anyone), but JB showed out last night (other than the very concerning free throw issues, which are starting to seem yips-y) and this is the second game in a row where he didn't just kumbaya the post-game:

View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766110899377439217?s=20


It's hard to argue with him. They even tried a weird possession with Pritch on the Joker for reasons that weren't entirely clear (I guess it did sort of work that one time against Embiid), but they never really used Jaylen to try to keep Joker out of the low block, which KP had absolutely no chance of doing. Jokic probably just shoots over Jaylen, but at least there's a chance of him missing a 10-footer, vs. zero chance of him missing those little 3-foot hooks and what not.

Anyway, Jaylen was on fire last night and for sure did not shrink from the moment. He's one of the most dangerous scorers in the league and I wouldn't be totally sure he doesn't get on that All-NBA team again if he keeps playing like this.
 

Humphrey

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I know the focus is on Tatum right now, because it's easier to find things to say about poor performances than good ones (and I'm guilty of it as much as anyone), but JB showed out last night (other than the very concerning free throw issues, which are starting to seem yips-y) and this is the second game in a row where he didn't just kumbaya the post-game:
It sucks watching a guy play that well and at the same time be a major factor in pissing the game away.
 

lovegtm

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I know the focus is on Tatum right now, because it's easier to find things to say about poor performances than good ones (and I'm guilty of it as much as anyone), but JB showed out last night (other than the very concerning free throw issues, which are starting to seem yips-y) and this is the second game in a row where he didn't just kumbaya the post-game:

View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766110899377439217?s=20


It's hard to argue with him. They even tried a weird possession with Pritch on the Joker for reasons that weren't entirely clear (I guess it did sort of work that one time against Embiid), but they never really used Jaylen to try to keep Joker out of the low block, which KP had absolutely no chance of doing. Jokic probably just shoots over Jaylen, but at least there's a chance of him missing a 10-footer, vs. zero chance of him missing those little 3-foot hooks and what not.

Anyway, Jaylen was on fire last night and for sure did not shrink from the moment. He's one of the most dangerous scorers in the league and I wouldn't be totally sure he doesn't get on that All-NBA team again if he keeps playing like this.
I wonder whether his foul situation made them hesitant to do it? Although he didn't pick up any down the stretch iirc.

They need to find someone in their primary lineup who can slow Jokic down, because KP just can't do it.
 

benhogan

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I know the focus is on Tatum right now, because it's easier to find things to say about poor performances than good ones (and I'm guilty of it as much as anyone), but JB showed out last night (other than the very concerning free throw issues, which are starting to seem yips-y) and this is the second game in a row where he didn't just kumbaya the post-game:

View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766110899377439217?s=20


It's hard to argue with him. They even tried a weird possession with Pritch on the Joker for reasons that weren't entirely clear (I guess it did sort of work that one time against Embiid), but they never really used Jaylen to try to keep Joker out of the low block, which KP had absolutely no chance of doing. Jokic probably just shoots over Jaylen, but at least there's a chance of him missing a 10-footer, vs. zero chance of him missing those little 3-foot hooks and what not.

Anyway, Jaylen was on fire last night and for sure did not shrink from the moment. He's one of the most dangerous scorers in the league and I wouldn't be totally sure he doesn't get on that All-NBA team again if he keeps playing like this.
I'd opt for Jaylen/Jrue taking turns fronting & shoving Joker with some Horford/Tillman off the bench. KP has to be parked around the rim to stop the Gordon alley-oops.

KP guarding Joker (or Embiid or Giannis) is sub-optimal on many levels
 

kazuneko

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I'd opt for Jaylen/Jrue taking turns fronting & shoving Joker with some Horford/Tillman off the bench. KP has to be parked around the rim to stop the Gordon alley-oops.

KP guarding Joker (or Embiid or Giannis) is sub-optimal on many levels
Agreed. Would have loved to have seen Tillman get more play last night as I think he’s probably the Cs best defensive option against Jokic. Strength, not height, seems to be the most important factor for guarding him and Tillman has got to be the strongest guy on the team.
 

Kliq

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Stopping Jokic, or thinking of personnel that could slow Jokic down, is a fool's errand. The key is being focused on limiting the success of Murray/Gordon/MPJ playing off of Jokic. I actually think KP did a good job on Jokic all things being considered down the stretch, the issue was other defenders (mainly Tatum) falling asleep and allowing Gordon to get a few easy baskets in crunch time.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Yeah the best shot is to tire him out as best you can on defense and rebound the fuck out of his misses. He is too good of a passer to double so if you aggressively front him or try to catch him while he's spinning or something you have to be ON POINT with the rotations because he will find the open guy immediately.

Last night there were at least 3 or 4 times someone tried to blindside strip him and it would have worked against probably any other big in the league but he's so big and strong and aware that it just doesn't work the same.

What you do not want is throwing the kitchen sink at him only to have Murray and MPJ raining wide open threes or finding another shooter in the corner or opening up the cutting lanes for even easier buckets.

One thing I would do is see if you can dupe the refs into calling some charges and that kind of thing.

Of course, it's far from guaranteed that this is the Finals matchup so it may be moot, but definitely worth thinking about because he is the only player they could potentially face in the playoffs who requires such a specific game plan and is mostly a novelty for the C's, who have faced and beaten both Embiid and Giannis plenty.
 

Euclis20

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I know the focus is on Tatum right now, because it's easier to find things to say about poor performances than good ones (and I'm guilty of it as much as anyone), but JB showed out last night (other than the very concerning free throw issues, which are starting to seem yips-y) and this is the second game in a row where he didn't just kumbaya the post-game:

View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766110899377439217?s=20


It's hard to argue with him. They even tried a weird possession with Pritch on the Joker for reasons that weren't entirely clear (I guess it did sort of work that one time against Embiid), but they never really used Jaylen to try to keep Joker out of the low block, which KP had absolutely no chance of doing. Jokic probably just shoots over Jaylen, but at least there's a chance of him missing a 10-footer, vs. zero chance of him missing those little 3-foot hooks and what not.

Anyway, Jaylen was on fire last night and for sure did not shrink from the moment. He's one of the most dangerous scorers in the league and I wouldn't be totally sure he doesn't get on that All-NBA team again if he keeps playing like this.
I thought they were going to go into a zone that one possession where Pritchard matched up with Jokic, with Pritchard at the top of the. Jokic just blew it up by posting Pritchard up 25 feet away and backed him all the way into the paint.