Jaylen Brown: More than enough in Year 8.

RG33

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Jaylen consistently rates really poorly (relative to his box score production) by impact metrics. In other words, if you look at how the team performs with/without Jaylen it shows you a slightly better than average player, not a star. That’s been persistent for years. As one illustration, Jaylen ranked about 80th in the league by LEBRON last year. His comps are guys like Smart, Herro, Lavine, Tobias Harris, and OG Anunoby. I don’t think anyone here thinks that’s an accurate measure of his value, but I’m extremely skeptical Jaylen is a top 30 player and he’s nowhere near that group of 5 guys you list.

Ignoring older players where 6 years from now it’s hard to see them being good, additional players I’m confident are better than Jaylen are: Ja Morant, Doncic, Mitchell, Halliburton, and Booker. There’s a bunch of other younger players I’d probably bet on being better than Jaylen like Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Fox, Sabonis, Porzingis, and Trae, to name some but not all guys in this category. I think there is a reasonable case for Jaylen over any given player in that group but there’s no good case he’s better than all of them.
Yeah, I think all that is fair, and betting on folks ascending going forward makes sense, but i was referencing right now. I would be more comfortable giving the $60M to Jaylen than Ja Morant and Donovan Mitchell — I could certainly see the argument for Doncic and Booker. Halliburton seems a bit premature right now to make that deal (we would similarly be saying he is “overpaid” if he signed it right now, no?).
 

RG33

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I might be reading this wrong, but does that list mean that there are only 5 players in the league that you'd rather have over JB over the next 5-6 years?
You read it correctly. Right now, for the next 5 years, I would definitely rather those 5 guys. There are strong arguments to be made for Doncic and Ja Morant and Booker too. And as Jake mentioned, there are multiple guys you could project out for sure — but, right now, at this moment in time, who else would you give it to over Jaylen where we wouldn’t be having similar conversation around “that is a wild overpay”?
 

benhogan

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Jaylen consistently rates really poorly (relative to his box score production) by impact metrics. In other words, if you look at how the team performs with/without Jaylen it shows you a slightly better than average player, not a star. That’s been persistent for years. As one illustration, Jaylen ranked about 80th in the league by LEBRON last year. His comps are guys like Smart, Herro, Lavine, Tobias Harris, and OG Anunoby. I don’t think anyone here thinks that’s an accurate measure of his value, but I’m extremely skeptical Jaylen is a top 30 player and he’s nowhere near that group of 5 guys you list.

Ignoring older players where 6 years from now it’s hard to see them being good, additional players I’m confident are better than Jaylen are: Ja Morant, Doncic, Mitchell, Halliburton, and Booker. There’s a bunch of other younger players I’d probably bet on being better than Jaylen like Mobley, Jaren Jackson Jr., Fox, Sabonis, Porzingis, and Trae, to name some but not all guys in this category. I think there is a reasonable case for Jaylen over any given player in that group but there’s no good case he’s better than all of them.
I agree with your Brown's adv metrics premise. Unfortunately, his biggest weakness, ball handling/passing gets exposed in the playoffs when NBA teams turn up the halfcourt D. I also don't believe he's a TOP20ish player (if you include the postseason issue) like ALL-NBA indicates.

BUT teams pay & trade for POINTS. His contract will have positive trade value a year from now.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Just going by online estimates, the valuation for the average NBA franchise has increased by something like ~6X over the past decade. The salary cap is up by ~1.3X over the same period . Nobody should weep for anyone in the NBA but given that they *are* the product its hard to buy arguments that any players are truly overpaid.
This is exactly right. Mahomes is going to be making $50mil/year in a league with 53 man rosters, whereas the NBA has 15 man rosters, and way more global reach (every big basketball card I've ever sold, and there have been a lot as shown in the sports cards thread, has been sent to Asia).

I always wonder why folks get caught up in the dollars. Would we rather the players make this money, or the owners? I'm a fan, I could give two shits about Wyc's bank account. I want to see the best team on the floor, and IMO, the best team the C's could put on the floor next season is one that includes Jaylen Brown.

Tatum's next contract will dwarf his, same with Giannis and Joker and everyone else due for a supermax after this season. This is how it works.
 

astrozombie

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I am mostly fine with this. JB provides so many good things on the court. Yeah, he has a terrible handle and too many TOs (seemingly at the worst possible times), but those can be cleaned up with practice, a tweaked scheme and consistent point guard play.
My real concern with JB was that I am not sure he actually *wants* to be here. Hopefully this contract means he does.
 

bankshot1

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Mostly relief. I didn't want to deal with the BS right now if Brad had to trade him for some discount package of bodies and picks.

Now lets go win some banners.
 

Salem's Lot

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I always wonder why folks get caught up in the dollars. Would we rather the players make this money, or the owners? I'm a fan, I could give two shits about Wyc's bank account.
Fans have this delusion that if the players weren’t making so much money, it would be cheaper to go to a game. I must have said this 1000 times whenever I hear it. I always respond with “If they capped player contracts at $100,000 per year, the fan cost to go to a game wouldn’t drop a penny, the owners would just keep more money”, but many people still buy the bull shit from the owners.
 

doc

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This is fair and puts PAY/VALUE in context from the owner's perspective.

Even if Brown flatlines, the contract will have trade value after year 1, especially to teams with young stars on the cusp (ie Orlando, SAS, etc)
Dude, phrasing
 

Euclis20

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You read it correctly. Right now, for the next 5 years, I would definitely rather those 5 guys. There are strong arguments to be made for Doncic and Ja Morant and Booker too. And as Jake mentioned, there are multiple guys you could project out for sure — but, right now, at this moment in time, who else would you give it to over Jaylen where we wouldn’t be having similar conversation around “that is a wild overpay”?
After I posted I thought about it some more and it's not the most ridiculous thing, really. I don't think anyone really has Morant in that category (even removing the chance that he literally shoots his way out of the league, he's still a terrifying injury risk with his size and playstyle). Luka and Booker are the obvious better players, and there are pretty good arguments for the following:

-Mitchell
-Murray
-Bam
-Edwards
-Ingram
-Haliburton
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'll just speak for me, but my issue is understanding all the cap issues and, to be perfectly honest, wrapping my head around the fact that any player is worth north of $60 million a year. I know it's a new era in sports (NBA in particular), but my word, SIXTY million a year?

I think that's the sticking point for some people. That plus the fact (and this is just a timing issue, but it's still a fact) that he just signed the biggest contract in NBA history. Jaylen Brown...biggest contract in NBA history. That's kind of hard to fathom.
How much do you think Jokic would make if (i) he were a free agent and (ii) there was no salary cap? $80M, $100M.

When JB is making $60M a year (2026-27), the salary cap will likely be $156M and the luxury tax will be around $190M. So he'll be making 31.5% of the luxury tax. That's basically what Rody Gorbert signed for. Granted Gorbert's contract was not great but JB is waaay better than him.

Yes, the numbers are very very large and guess what - they're only going to get bigger when the new TV deals kick in.
 

the moops

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After I posted I thought about it some more and it's not the most ridiculous thing, really. I don't think anyone really has Morant in that category (even removing the chance that he literally shoots his way out of the league, he's still a terrifying injury risk with his size and playstyle). Luka and Booker are the obvious better players, and there are pretty good arguments for the following:

-Mitchell
-Murray
-Bam
-Edwards
-Ingram
-Haliburton
Anthony Davis
 

BaseballJones

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How much do you think Jokic would make if (i) he were a free agent and (ii) there was no salary cap? $80M, $100M.

When JB is making $60M a year (2026-27), the salary cap will likely be $156M and the luxury tax will be around $190M. So he'll be making 31.5% of the luxury tax. That's basically what Rody Gorbert signed for. Granted Gorbert's contract was not great but JB is waaay better than him.

Yes, the numbers are very very large and guess what - they're only going to get bigger when the new TV deals kick in.
Yeah, you're absolutely right. The numbers are going to be almost beyond comprehension.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Fans have this delusion that if the players weren’t making so much money, it would be cheaper to go to a game. I must have said this 1000 times whenever I hear it. I always respond with “If they capped player contracts at $100,000 per year, the fan cost to go to a game wouldn’t drop a penny, the owners would just keep more money”, but many people still buy the bull shit from the owners.
Here is what owners that let stars walk away, instead of paying them, do with that money:


https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/bpda-approves-fenway-corners-a-1-6-billion-development-around-fenway-park.39973/page-2#post-5661357
 

Euclis20

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Anthony Davis
I started to type his name, then deleted it. He's got a higher ceiling for sure (when healthy he's a rich man's Bam Adebayo, who I did include on my original list), but he's 30 and has missed an average of 28 games per year over the last 5 years. He's just too much of an injury risk for me to think he has a real chance of being more valuable than Jaylen from ages 30-35. I'd sooner include someone a few years older like Jimmy Butler than have to bet on AD playing like an all-star when it counts over the next half decade.

It's absolutely a discussion for another thread, but I'm very curious to see if he picks up his $43M player option next summer, and if not, how much the Lakers want to keep him (especially with the possibility of rebuilding with Lebron either leaving or entering his 40s).
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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After I posted I thought about it some more and it's not the most ridiculous thing, really. I don't think anyone really has Morant in that category (even removing the chance that he literally shoots his way out of the league, he's still a terrifying injury risk with his size and playstyle). Luka and Booker are the obvious better players, and there are pretty good arguments for the following:

-Mitchell
-Murray
-Bam
-Edwards
-Ingram
-Haliburton
So just to be clear, you'd rather pay all of these players a Supermax other than JB? Because that's a more accurate comparison. Just as one example, Bam is a great defender and a really great player but I think I'd still rather have JB on a Supermax.
 

Patriot_Reign

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How much do you think Jokic would make if (i) he were a free agent and (ii) there was no salary cap? $80M, $100M.

When JB is making $60M a year (2026-27), the salary cap will likely be $156M and the luxury tax will be around $190M. So he'll be making 31.5% of the luxury tax. That's basically what Rody Gorbert signed for. Granted Gorbert's contract was not great but JB is waaay better than him.

Yes, the numbers are very very large and guess what - they're only going to get bigger when the new TV deals kick in.
So what happens when both Jays are on their supermax deals, are they going to have enough $$s left to have meaningful players outside the two?
 

lovegtm

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So what happens when both Jays are on their supermax deals, are they going to have enough $$s left to have meaningful players outside the two?
If it's an issue, you trade Jaylen and reconfigure. People are really overcomplicating this.
 

Royal Reader

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Based on this list, I would probably only choose the following over JB:

1. Joel Embiid
2. SGA
3. Giannis
4. Tatum
5. Nikola Jokic

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders

I get that as Celtics fans we have seen him everyday and have seen the postseason struggles with his handle, but they guy is a fucking stud in a league with skyrocketing revenues / salary cap. This will look like a great deal in 3 years when Wemby re-ups for like $85M a year.
I'd probably take Steph Curry at that money for the title favorite status for the next two years, then live with the overpaid/decline years in the same manner as a ten year baseball contract, given how short title windows appear to be in the current iteration of the NBA.

I'd take several of the guys others have mentioned, too. Probably not Morant, given his off field issues.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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If it's an issue, you trade Jaylen and reconfigure. People are really overcomplicating this.
Yes. For as long as they have Jayson Tatum in his prime and a halfway decent roster around him, this team will be a legitimate contender. JB's contract doesn't affect that at all, as the only avenue of player acquisition for this team—whether they signed JB or not— is via trade and draft picks.

Let Wyc worry about Wyc's wallet. And if they ultimately move JB, as long as they still have Jayson Tatum in his prime, they will be fine, even if they don't get the best player in such a trade.
 

benhogan

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If it's an issue, you trade Jaylen and reconfigure. People are really overcomplicating this.
Brad has so much draft pick flexibility, he could turn Jaylen into another young NBA cheap superstar next year to dovetail with Tatum if he wanted

The permutations & options are large
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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what is NBA escrow or jock tax?
Pay is based on actual revenue so 10% is set aside until actual numbers are in, and that money either goes in part or in full back to owners or to the players depending on where revenue came in in relation to projections.

"Jock tax" is the individual income tax paid to states where away games are played.
 

Jimbodandy

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I wish that I understood the CBA well enough to explain this. Half of the folks that I've heard from, including a couple here, are treating this like a baseball contract. "$300MM for what?" The max and supermax deals are functionally a percentage of whatever the cap is. It's not like the Celtics ownership got drunk and handed Jaylen's agent a blank check.
 

Euclis20

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So just to be clear, you'd rather pay all of these players a Supermax other than JB? Because that's a more accurate comparison. Just as one example, Bam is a great defender and a really great player but I think I'd still rather have JB on a Supermax.
I think there's an argument for all of them (well probably not Murray). In the ringer's latest player ranking column from June, here's where they all fall:

Tyrese Haliburton - 32
Brandon Ingram - 29
Anthony Edwards - 24
Jaylen Brown - 22
Bam Adebayo - 21
Donovan Mitchell - 15

Brown is right in the middle, I think all of these guys are all fairly similar in terms of future value over the next 5-6 years.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I wish that I understood the CBA well enough to explain this. Half of the folks that I've heard from, including a couple here, are treating this like a baseball contract. "$300MM for what?" The max and supermax deals are functionally a percentage of whatever the cap is. It's not like the Celtics ownership got drunk and handed Jaylen's agent a blank check.
Exactly. There was an article (I think in The Athletic?) recently that pointed out that taking about raw dollars in a league with a salary cap is totally irrelevant and contracts should be discussed by percentage of the cap they take up.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So what happens when both Jays are on their supermax deals, are they going to have enough $$s left to have meaningful players outside the two?
Don't forget KP at $30M in two years.

They pay an incredible luxury tax; they are limited in means in improving the team so they have to draft well; but hopefully - big hopefully - they've won a title by then.

Either that or they tear it down.

He can't make 60 million if the cap is only 156 million
Sorry was looking at old projections. I guess they are now projecting cap in 2026-27 to be somewhere between $170M and $175M. So luxury tax is in the $200M range? Same point.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Pay is based on actual revenue so 10% is set aside until actual numbers are in, and that money either goes in part or in full back to owners or to the players depending on where revenue came in in relation to projections.

"Jock tax" is the individual income tax paid to states where away games are played.
Do we have a feel based on history if the escrow money generally ends up with the player or not? And if not, won’t his Fed and state taxes end up being lower?
 

nighthob

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Ultimately the league is too small. They can tinker at the margins by expanding rosters but an expansion has to be coming.
Expansion is waiting until LeBron retires, he wants the Las Vegas franchise, and can’t have it as an active player. But once he hangs them up I imagine that we’ll see Las Vegas and Seattle getting expansion teams and Memphis moving to the EC.
 

lexrageorge

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This was almost pre-ordained once Jaylen made All-NBA, which everyone here was pulling for. Once that happened, the alternatives to the supermax became much worse options. The Celtics were not in position to trade JB for stack of dimes and quarters, especially as doing so could easily have pushed Tatum out the door next year. I get that we'll never really know the type of trade market JB would have had, but hard to believe it would be much more than a stack of dimes and quarters given the rental aspect. And I sincerely doubt JB, given his position in the NBAPA, would have any interest in doing the Celtics a solid and committing to a team long term, given the fact that the Celtics would be costing JB some serious coin by trading him. And letting JB walk for nothing next offseason is the type of scenario that gets GMs fired.

There are of course risks in paying JB the big $$$. But even big contracts are often tradeable as long as the player is healthy, so the downside risks are at least something the team felt they could live with (barring a Gordon Hayward type injury, of course).
 

Tony C

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Fans have this delusion that if the players weren’t making so much money, it would be cheaper to go to a game. I must have said this 1000 times whenever I hear it. I always respond with “If they capped player contracts at $100,000 per year, the fan cost to go to a game wouldn’t drop a penny, the owners would just keep more money”, but many people still buy the bull shit from the owners.
Do many fans really have that delusion? A few I'm sure, but I didn't read anything of that sort in the thread, tho perhaps i just skimmed over it. The issue is the CBA. The size of a contract -- and how much of the cap (keeping in mind 1st/2nd Apron etc) they take up. It's perfectly legit to say this or that dude isn't worth x dollars not out of some retrograde WEEI whiners line sense, but just that it'll take up too much cap room. That's where the debate in this thread has been, no?
 

JakeRae

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Players on large deals get traded all the time. Jaylen on this deal is more valuable a trade chip a year from now than he was yesterday.

Look at some of the contracts that were traded, and when they happened vis a vis a guy's career trajectory:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/the-highest-paid-traded-players-ever/
I don’t really follow your point. The top of this list is dominated by players who were either negative value when traded or were much better than Jaylen is likely to ever be. In the former category are Westbrook, Wall, and Simmons. In the latter are Harden and Paul. George really too, but I’m putting him last because I assume some here think Jaylen is a comparable player. Porzingis and McCollum are better comps for Jaylen, but neither of them were on contracts remotely comparable to the one Jaylen just signed.