James Paxton exercises his $4 million option

Niastri

Member
SoSH Member
Chris Cotillo
@ChrisCotillo
1m

Boras on Paxton returning: “He’s very comfortable there…. He really felt it was the best thing at this point in his career.”

Chris Cotillo
@ChrisCotillo

1m

Boras says Paxton’s decision was more about comfort than money. “Sometimes it’s better to take the six-pack than the champagne.”
People seem to forget that a million dollars is still a lot of money. Four millions is even more. Paxton has made over $40 million in his career.

Once you have enormous wealth, happiness becomes more important than more money. Plus, if he is healthy, he'll get another market rate contract next year.

Athletes aren't known for lacking confidence in their abilities. Paxton probably thinks like Joe Kelly... He's just an adjustment or two away from winning the Cy Young.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
72,271
As for the 40-man roster, I'm not understanding the concern. There are half a dozen guys on the roster right now that are likely to be non-tendered, traded, or DFA. I'm not sure they're going to be all that precious about holding on to the likes of Yu Chang or Caleb Hamilton.
A lot of their top prospects are rule 5 eligible, prospect rankings from mlb.com:

Boston Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela, SS (No. 3/MLB No. 96)
Brandon Walter, LHP (No. 7)
Chris Murphy, RHP (No. 11)
Eddison Paulino, SS (No. 13)
Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP (No. 14)
Thad Ward, RHP (No. 15)
Brainer Bonaci, SS (No. 16)
Enmanuel Valdez, 2B (No. 18)
Christian Koss, 3B (No. 20)
Wilyer Abreu, OF (No. 23)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,977
How many pitchers will they carry on the 40-man, though? They’ve probably got room for another starter but then I think they will have to start making some decisions about some of the depth they have.

Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Seabold, Ward, Gonzalez…that’s 13 guys right there. Add in Houck, Schreiber, Taylor, German, Kelly, Brasier and Barnes and you are at 20 pitchers already. Some of these guys are expendable but it gets really hard to add a guy like Rich Hill, IMO.
 

mikcou

Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2007
932
Boston
A lot of their top prospects are rule 5 eligible, prospect rankings from mlb.com:

Boston Red Sox
Ceddanne Rafaela, SS (No. 3/MLB No. 96)
Brandon Walter, LHP (No. 7)
Chris Murphy, RHP (No. 11)
Eddison Paulino, SS (No. 13)
Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP (No. 14)
Thad Ward, RHP (No. 15)
Brainer Bonaci, SS (No. 16)
Enmanuel Valdez, 2B (No. 18)
Christian Koss, 3B (No. 20)
Wilyer Abreu, OF (No. 23)
Paulino, Wikelman, and Bonaci are far enough off to not be too concerned. Koss isnt worth worrying about.

Rafaela, Walter, and Murphy were always likely to be added. Ward, Valdez and Abreu were always the question mark guys. I'd probably add Valdez given how close he is and Ward because you could conceivably park him a ML pen. Abreu still seems far enough way and not enough upside to really entice anyone.
 

BeantownIdaho

New Member
Dec 5, 2005
481
Nampa, Idaho
Chaim gets his project guy early @ 4 mil - good project arm and at a great price.
We need to sign another "good" and "dependable" arm for the rotation
Always good to have a lot of depth - surplus can be used as trade chips
Hill already talked about waiting until the all-star break to catch on with a team for a half season. He wants to return to Boston - Might be a good guy stashed in our back pocket if needed.
 

Pandarama

New Member
Aug 20, 2018
150
People seem to forget that a million dollars is still a lot of money. Four millions is even more. Paxton has made over $40 million in his career.

Once you have enormous wealth, happiness becomes more important than more money.
Fair point.

It’s probably also fair to note that government(s) and his agent(s) have received a good chunk (almost half?) of that $40m. $20m is a not insubstantial net worth, but Paxton is still a young man, and a healthy free agent pitcher could expect to do better than $4m after putting up a good show after a ST invite. I will be very pleasantly surprised if he makes 20 starts next year.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
31,200
[
How many pitchers will they carry on the 40-man, though? They’ve probably got room for another starter but then I think they will have to start making some decisions about some of the depth they have.

Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Bello, Whitlock, Crawford, Winckowski, Mata, Walter, Murphy, Seabold, Ward, Gonzalez…that’s 13 guys right there. Add in Houck, Schreiber, Taylor, German, Kelly, Brasier and Barnes and you are at 20 pitchers already. Some of these guys are expendable but it gets really hard to add a guy like Rich Hill, IMO.
I'm not expecting brasier or Taylor to be an issue. Brasier is expendable and Taylor spent the whole year not recovering from a back injury that was AFAIK, treated only with rest and hope, and never got better.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,977
I'm not expecting brasier or Taylor to be an issue. Brasier is expendable and Taylor spent the whole year not recovering from a back injury that was AFAIK, treated only with rest and hope, and never got better.
I agree, but they will likely be replaced with other relievers. They can’t carry 15 starters on the 40-man.
 

Dewey'sCannon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
877
Maryland
I don't think Braiser or Taylor will be on the 40-man when it comes time to protect prospects from the Rule 5 draft. After the draft, I would expect some transactions that would free up roster spots as necessary.
 

JM3

often quoted
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
16,794
Here's what Paxton said today about exercising his player option:

He might have received more than $4 million somewhere else in free agency but he didn’t try.

“I haven’t pitched healthy in like three years,” Paxton said Thursday at JetBlue Park. “I’m comfortable here. They know me. I know them. And I’m trying to establish myself back in the big leagues and I felt like this was the place for me to do it.”
On his health...

“I feel like I’m totally normal and gonna treat this like a regular spring training,” he said.

“It was hard,” he said. “I really wanted to make it out there last year. I had just started feeling really good with the elbow and started letting it rip a little bit and the lat wasn’t quite ready for that so it gave out on me. But I got myself in the best shape I could this year and ready to compete.”
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/02/red-soxs-james-paxton-on-exercising-player-option-i-havent-pitched-healthy-in-like-3-years.html
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,851
PHILADELPHIA — The Red Sox will use lefty James Paxton as a starting pitcher. There was some thought about using him as a reliever but he’ll continue to do what he always has done. All 137 of his major league outings have been starts.


The Red Sox will activate Paxton from the 15-day IL during their two-game series in Atlanta Tuesday-Wednesday. His 30-day rehab stint expires Tuesday.


“Then we’ll decide when he pitches,” manager Alex Cora said before Saturday’s Red Sox game at Citizens Bank Park.
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/05/james-paxton-to-join-red-sox-rotation-alex-cora-doesnt-rule-out-a-6-man.html
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,977
Yeah, can certainly see the upside if it works out. I was a skeptic that we’d even get to this point, and thrilled to admit that I was wrong about that (like many, if not most things). Despite the loss last night, seems like we are seeing a lot of best case scenarios coming together for this team- they are a fun team to watch, especially with all the young players largely playing up to their potential.
 

LogansDad

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
30,483
Alamogordo
Yeah, can certainly see the upside if it works out. I was a skeptic that we’d even get to this point, and thrilled to admit that I was wrong about that (like many, if not most things). Despite the loss last night, seems like we are seeing a lot of best case scenarios coming together for this team- they are a fun team to watch, especially with all the young players largely playing up to their potential.
Are we seeing a lot of best case scenarios right now, though? I think we are seeing a lot of "good case" scenarios, but I'm not sure they are even firing on all cylinders yet. Turner has been up and down, Kiké has been a mixed bag, Casas is looking better but still below .200, etc. etc., the starting pitching has been abysmal for the most part.

I would throw Verdugo, Yoshida (at least for 2 weeks) and Duran in the best case so far, maybe the catching, and the bullpen has probably been close to it, but otherwise, I still see room for improvement on this club.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,026
No idea what to expect from Paxton the rest of the season, but if he was a FA right now after that showcase last night, I bet he would get more than 1/4M for the rest of the season.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
14,026
I would throw Verdugo, Yoshida (at least for 2 weeks) and Duran in the best case so far, maybe the catching, and the bullpen has probably been close to it, but otherwise, I still see room for improvement on this club.
4 teams in baseball have given up 200+ runs this season. The Red Sox, White Sox, Royals and A's.

Let's hope the pitching/defense isn't anything close to a best case scenario at this point or we are in big trouble.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
12,977
Yeah, that’s fair. Offensively, I think we are seeing a lot of over performance vs what was expected; with Casas and Hernandez really the only ones underperforming and not dramatically so.

On the pitching side, I think the expectations were probably a lot lower; most of the members of the pen (Winckowski, Crawford, Jansen, Schreiber) have been better than anticipated, I’d say. The starting has been awful, when I think average was probably hoped for.

The path to really contending has always been dependent on getting a lot out of Sale, Whitlock, and Bello, I think.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,720
4 teams in baseball have given up 200+ runs this season. The Red Sox, White Sox, Royals and A's.

Let's hope the pitching/defense isn't anything close to a best case scenario at this point or we are in big trouble.
The bullpen has been pretty great. A few Ort and Brasier turds that should happen less. Last night is likely an outlier (hopefully)
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,435
Only 2 starts so far, but 4 million looks like an absolute steal, and he could end up being worth more than the 10m he got over 2 years.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
12,122
He’s made two starts, pitched 11 innings, and is 4th on the staff in WAR.

He leads the staff in K%, including relievers. He’s throwing strikes, getting wiff’s and the stuff is holding firm.

Basically best case scenario through 2.

Stay healthy big guy. Please.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,720
He’s made two starts, pitched 11 innings, and is 4th on the staff in WAR.

He leads the staff in K%, including relievers. He’s throwing strikes, getting wiff’s and the stuff is holding firm.

Basically best case scenario through 2.

Stay healthy big guy. Please.
Yup. The rotation- any rotation really- is a bunch of question marks but Sale, Paxton staying healthy and pitching like they have…. Bello (same)…. Then they’re just a good team. No argument. 90 win quality good as a baseline now. Getting anything better than what the Pivetta/Kluber/Houck/Whitlock combo has delivered so far is just more wins on top of the 90
 

bosockboy

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
20,617
St. Louis, MO
Paxton being peak Paxton changes the season outlook entirely, along with a healthy Sale. Hang on for Story and Duvall, get a wildcard slot and LFG.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,362
He’s made two starts, pitched 11 innings, and is 4th on the staff in WAR.

He leads the staff in K%, including relievers. He’s throwing strikes, getting wiff’s and the stuff is holding firm.

Basically best case scenario through 2.

Stay healthy big guy. Please.
Just two starts, I know. But he's already earned about half of his contract.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,692
He had RH hitters very defensive on a good number of fastballs last night.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,615
Paxton being peak Paxton changes the season outlook entirely, along with a healthy Sale. Hang on for Story and Duvall, get a wildcard slot and LFG.
Yep. Already mentioned this in another thread last week, but the entire rotation projections are turned on their head if Sale and Paxton are pitching 150+ innings and anywhere close to their previous selves. It changes everything.

You’re prob adding 6-7 wins to the projected total in that case.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
21,281
Maine
Yep. Already mentioned this in another thread last week, but the entire rotation projections are turned on their head if Sale and Paxton are pitching 150+ innings and anywhere close to their previous selves. It changes everything.

You’re prob adding 6-7 wins to the projected total in that case.
Paxton probably won't be getting to 150+ innings just due to his late start. If he averages 6 innings per start the rest of the way (which would be outstanding), he'll get close. That said, Fangraphs was projecting the two of them at about 200 total innings before the season began when they had the Sox projected at around 80 wins. Not sure an extra 100 innings from them would yield that many more wins on its own. But in combination with other guys exceeding projections (Verdugo, Duran, Yoshida, etc), 87-88+ wins is certainly within reach.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Paxton probably won't be getting to 150+ innings just due to his late start. If he averages 6 innings per start the rest of the way (which would be outstanding), he'll get close. That said, Fangraphs was projecting the two of them at about 200 total innings before the season began when they had the Sox projected at around 80 wins. Not sure an extra 100 innings from them would yield that many more wins on its own. But in combination with other guys exceeding projections (Verdugo, Duran, Yoshida, etc), 87-88+ wins is certainly within reach.
In a vacuum, sure, but there is a certain cascading effect, no? Bullpen gets less worn out, starter-quality guys take pen spots from marginal actors, etc.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,615
Paxton probably won't be getting to 150+ innings just due to his late start. If he averages 6 innings per start the rest of the way (which would be outstanding), he'll get close. That said, Fangraphs was projecting the two of them at about 200 total innings before the season began when they had the Sox projected at around 80 wins. Not sure an extra 100 innings from them would yield that many more wins on its own. But in combination with other guys exceeding projections (Verdugo, Duran, Yoshida, etc), 87-88+ wins is certainly within reach.
What was fangraphs projections of their rate stats though? IIRC they were over a 4 ERA for both. That still might be correct but the recent performance provides hope for something better and as others have implied, maybe any extra innings they pitch over projections also cascades into better bullpen performance (less starter innings needed by guys like Houck or Whitlock can be converted into high quality bullpen innings)

But I agree with your implied math…prob not 6-7 games over fangraphs preseason projections. Maybe 3-4 games better though if rates are better than projected plus an extra 100ish innings.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
What was fangraphs projections of their rate stats though? IIRC they were over a 4 ERA for both. That still might be correct but the recent performance provides hope for something better and as others have implied, maybe any extra innings they pitch over projections also cascades into better bullpen performance (less starter innings needed by guys like Houck or Whitlock can be converted into high quality bullpen innings)

But I agree with your implied math…prob not 6-7 games over fangraphs preseason projections. Maybe 3-4 games better though if rates are better than projected plus an extra 100ish innings.
I wonder what they even go on for post-TJ guys. Lots of them return but not always to 100% their former selves. At a minimum they probably factored in some readjustment. Or maybe they just throw darts.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,720
I’m guessing these are jokes^^^ but if Bloom doesn’t think someone in AAA is ready to take over Kluber, Pivetta spots, the FA market is slim and a trade is likely. I don’t even see Kluber types in ‘24 si Paxton will turn into a 3-4 year FA guy for probably more than Bloom- rightly so- would want to pay.
IMO any holes in the rotation will be through trade