It's the halfway mark. Where we at?
- Thread starter AB in DC
- Start date
Baseball being a game of adjustments, the league adjusting back to Rob Refsnyder isn't exactly shocking. I'm not saying he stinks or doesn't have worth in his role (as the short side of a platoon in the OF), more that I think they expected to get more out of a guy that frankly isn't that good and is already near the end of his prime. Or at least that is my inference.
Maybe they expected him to revert to being almost exactly average - in which case fine, he doesn't belong on the list. But if the Red Sox - or anyone - expected a 31 year old that had roughly 175 really good plate appearances in his age 31 season to continue being a 140 OPS+ player more than the guy he'd been his entire career, that is some serious hubris of "we made an adjustment and there is no way the rest of the league could ever adjust back."
But since - I fully admit that you're right - there is no evidence they thought that, I'll assume they "just" wanted him to be a short side platoon OF and cede you the point otherwise. Rob Refsnyder is really far down the list of problems with the roster so I'll just say you're right, I shouldn't have had him on there.
Just to the Cora portion of the argument, I admit it has to be difficult signing up to be the manager of one "team" and having the "team" now look nothing like it.
I don't mean just in terms of roster turnover - which happens - just in terms of philosophy that you come in to a team with an established core, a World Series contender, and a top 3 payroll in the game and now have a team with an entirely young core, "contending" to be the last WC team, and now has a payroll that is about $150k more than the Colorado Rockies. He may not have expected them to be #1 all the time like the 2018 team was, but I also doubt he expected them to be #14 at any point either.
I understand the "you're paid to do a job, do it, no matter what you think of your boss's plan" mindset. However, it's pretty clear that the rebuild, at least in terms of payroll shedding, has started and looks like it's going that way for the considerable future (at least 2024 and probably 2025). The Cora and Bloom dynamic does not seem to be working at all, and if the team is committed to keeping the latter (and I'm not saying this is right or wrong, just what apparently "is), you should probably cut ties with the former and bring in someone that is on board with a several season reset and knows to expect stop gap measures and below league average talent for the next couple of seasons.
Serious question - but I wonder if a trade could be worked out to send Cora to the Padres or Mets. I mean, they'd at least get something better than Mike Aviles.
Last edited:
Against LHP though, he's not a bad guy to hit leadoff or 2nd. Totally benched against RHP is fine and his defense isn't good enough to keep him in the field in late innings if a RH bullpen arm shows up.
A future OF of Verdugo mostly in RF, Duran/Rafaela in CF, Yoshida/Duran in LF with Refsnyder looks to be a pretty good with Yoshida moved to DH most of the time. Obviously not right now (not really a "halfway point" discussion) but just responding to Refsnyder talk. He's a great 4-5th OF'er if utilized correctly
Yup - a career .373 OBP versus LHP is very good. and in the last two years it has been north of .400 (.411 and .451). An OPS of .900 and .1000 against LHP.
He's a great platoon guy to have, especially with an outfield with Verdugo, Masa, and Duran, and Duvall, all of whom are south of .800 against LHP. (Yes, Duvall barely has a split against left-handers). Personally I'd like to see Duvall and Refsnyder out there against LHP with Verdugo and Duran sitting as often as possible, because both of them are miserable against LHP. Masa and Duval are both averagish against LHP.
After a few more seasons, we would be approaching the 10-year mark without a World Series appearance, with at least a few last-place finishes mixed in for good measure. I am not sure the fan base will be receptive to that situation and if the plan goes bust, we could go way beyond 10 years. I don't think that will happen. In my opinion, HB is going to have to make some adjustments to his strategy or he will be taking the train out of town after next season.
Small nit being picked here, but in the spirit of the thread title we're only 5 years removed with another 5 to go. If they reach a point that they are consistently vying for the league championship and falling short of the WS there will be frustration on the part of the fans, but appreciation for the strides it's taken to get that far.
Last edited:
I should rephrase since I can't really put Casas in that category without more of a track record. Those two have higher ceilings, while all other players are playing within range of their typical capabilities or well above it.
Devers, though is 27 points below last season's wRC+. That's the difference between an all star and an average hitter. They are not paying him to be an average hitter, and his defense is what it is at this point. I think he'll be better, but he hasn't been what they need by a substantial margin.
Sorry, they have plenty of "fringe prospects", "AAA guys" and "depth pieces".
I know, but they're not going to get a haul for a pitcher with half a season left on his deal and a spotty injury history. If they are very lucky, he might yield someone who can help right away, but it's more likely they use him to further stock the farm. Teams are already making deals, so if he's good tonight, I don't see many reasons to have him start again before dealing him away.
I don’t disagree, but it’s weird. Raffy is better this year than last in walk rate, he’s chasing fewer pitches out of the zone, his barrel rate is higher, he’s popping it up less, and he’s whiffing at (slightly) fewer pitches overall. He’s also having his best fielding year of his career (by DRS and OAA).
Only thing I can see is that he’s traded a few line drives for fly balls this year, but not to a degree that would justify his lower traditional stat lines. He’s been really unlucky.
Who is HB?
Worth noting that that Rays are the only team in the AL East that have been to the World Series more recently than the Red Sox, with the Yankees having not gone in 13 seasons, the Jays in almost 30, and the Orioles in almost 40. We've been spoiled by them going, and winning, four times in the past 19 seasons, but that's not the norm for most clubs. Crazily enough, if they go next year or in 2025, win or lose, they'll have still managed 5 trips in 20ish years, which is by far the most of all 32 teams in that span. Even if they don't, they'll still have gone to and won more than any other team this CENTURY, unless the Giants go back and win in the next couple seasons or by 2030. I realize it's "what have you done for me lately" but if we're going to judge success by World Series berths, they are leading the pack going back almost 20 seasons.
I think you're underselling what teams will pay for Paxton; if he's for sale, he's likely the best SP on the market in terms of how he's been performing this season.
Maybe, but only if they strike a deal in the next 5 days. Letting him pitch into mid-July in a Boston uniform might be playing with fire.
The Red Sox have been successful no question about it. I think in a lot of ways the fans, myself included, are spoiled. On the other hand, because of the success, the franchise can get away with visiting the basement for a couple of years and not get punished too badly for it. I just think the further we get away from that last win, the less margin for error management will have, and things will get more complicated. I am just saying if we were to finish at the bottom this season and did not improve next year, a change is going to happen. I don't think that is going to happen though.
He's definitely hit more than a few hard, line drives right at people. I'm not sure if/how that levels off during the course of a season, but it has been noticeable.
I'm sure that there is, it's likely a matter of how many adjustments they want him to make as he seems to be finding his stroke. It might be a matter of letting him get comfortable with whatever he's found and then seeing if he can get a bit more lift.
3.5 back from the last WC spot isn't ideal but it doesn't seem insurmountable. That said.... the ALW teams ahead of Boston have the A's to beat up on and there's no team like that in the ALE. But.... strength of schedule has some favorable Sox matchups going forward and (kicking myself in the arse... Story, Sale and Houck all expected back before too long). 88 wins looks doable and possible for the final spot. I don't expect series sweeps going forward, but it'd be real nice to find some consistency in Fenway and have a 66% win percentage there at least.
I still also don't see how anyone can say that they'd likely get bounced in a first playoff series with a fully healthy roster. Without Judge (who likely would be back) I'd pick the Sox over the Yankees every time. With him... it's a toss-up. They've shown they can beat the Blue Jays handily. Despite some serious frustrations with sloppy and unfocused play (both in game and overall sense of urgency) I really am enjoying watching this team. They feel more 2016 than 2013
Coming into the season, I thought the Sox were unlikely to win 95 or lose 95, but any outcome in between was in play. Basically, a high-variance .500 team. I thought they’d be fun to watch, and if they could reach the play-in with Sale and Paxton healthy entering October, they could go on a run.
So they’ve been about what I expected. But I’m more bearish than you about what will be required to reach the play-in. All nine of the non-Central, non-Oakland AL teams have positive run differentials. Imo it’s likely that at least five of those nine win 90. The Sox would need to win at nearly a 100-win pace the rest of the way to get there. This weekend’s strong showing in Toronto notwithstanding, I don’t see any sign they’re about to pivot on a dime and become that sort of team.
If we can go 6-2 this week, heading into the ASB, then at least we can have some legitimate cautious optimism about the second half.
We know the team can rip off a strong week here and there, but until they show that they can extend that then it’s hard to dream about the playoffs. Great opportunity for them the next week.
We know the team can rip off a strong week here and there, but until they show that they can extend that then it’s hard to dream about the playoffs. Great opportunity for them the next week.
They've been frustrating at times, but generally pleased with the development of Bello, Duran, Casas. Wong, Craweford and Winckowski and the play of Paxton, Verdugo, Turner, Martin and (as infuriating as he can be) Devers. That said, I don't see any way this team survives the sustained absence of Sale, Whitlock, and Houck from the rotation. I think they have to flip Paxton (if they can't extend him on reasonable terms) and Kenley at the deadline if the return warrants it (and see what Kique brings while they're at it).
Different websites seem to have very different SOS calculations.
The trade deadline is Tues. Aug. 1.
Including tomorrow's unplayed game, we have 20 games up to and including July 31, which is basically management's final window to decide whether to buy or sell at the deadline. It's also 27 calendar days, due to the ASB. And sometimes things fall apart there, or pick up after the ASB, and it's important to note we have guys on the IL who might come back and make a showing of health in those 27 days.
Many are not huge impact players, but a defensive SS can't hurt: Reyes, Chang, Joely, Bleier, McGuire. Possible impact players: Schreiber (mid July) and Story (maybe DH in July, SS in August.)
In the "maybe showing something" Sale is throwing at 60 feet and can return (soonest) on Aug. 1. Houck is TBD, but could ramp up, depending. Whitlock is anybody's guess.
So I'm curious about the SOS in the window before the trade deadline. Do we fall out of contention or not?
3 TEX, 3 OAK, 3 @ CHC, 3 @ OAK, 3 NYM, 2 ATL, 3 @ SFG, 1 SEA (July 31)
Consider back-of-the-envelope outcomes for these 21 games, 5 v. good, 12 v. middling, 6 v. bad.
ATL is a very good team. 1-1 or 0-2?
TEX is a good team. 2-1 or 1-2?
SFG is an above middling team. 2-1 or 1-2?
CHC is a middling team. 2-1 or 1-2?
SEA is a middling team. 1-0 or 0-1
NYM is a below middling team. 2-1 or 1-2?
OAK is a very bad team. 5-1 or 4-3?
15-5 or 8-14?
View: https://twitter.com/SoxNotes/status/1675898564256448512
51 of 83 games against teams with a winning record is a lot.
51 of 83 games against teams with a winning record is a lot.
It’s that but also their NL matchups have been no picnic: ATL, PHI, FLA, SD, ARI, plus catching STL and COL on the upswing.
The hangup for me is that they've been missing guys so frequently that they haven't really been who they could be, and we have seen enough teams tread water for months before it all came together. Hell, 19 years ago today the 2004 Sox were 6 over .500 (in more of a two-team division). We all know what happened after the Nomar trade, and that's an extreme example, but if the rotation got healthy then I do think a run is possible. Big If, I know. But I can't say pull the plug just yet.
The hangup for me is that they've been missing guys so frequently that they haven't really been who they could be, and we have seen enough teams tread water for months before it all came together. Hell, 19 years ago today the 2004 Sox were 6 over .500 (in more of a two-team division). We all know what happened after the Nomar trade, and that's an extreme example, but if the rotation got healthy then I do think a run is possible. Big If, I know. But I can't say pull the plug just yet.
Last edited:
Yeah, the Yankees weren't even trying when they got swept.
This is not a good take.
Yeah I know. I’m just frustrated with this team. Every time I start to believe in them they lose 5 out of 6, and every time I write them off they win 5 out of 6.
I think I picked the Sox to win 85 games, so they're about where I thought they'd be. Maybe I shouldn't be admitting this here, but I don't have strong feelings about how this season goes, as long as it's an improvement on last season, which is what it looks like so far. I like the trajectory, I like the young pitching, I like the wins over the MFYs and the Jays, and I'd love to see some success against the Rays. Beyond that, I'm OK with a season of development and growth, as long as it doesn't result in too much awful baseball. If they trade away veterans for more youth, that's OK, but if those veterans might contribute next year, I'm OK with that too. Kind of a luke warm take, I know.
Someone has to win the division, and I kind of like this young Orioles team. They don't preen quite so much as the Rays, and as a club they're due.
I think the bigger issue with regards to the wild card is having to jump SO MANY TEAMS. the games back of Houston for WC2 isn't insurmountable but you're also competing with like 6 other teams to do it.
This attitude has never made sense to me. As a team, you take care of your business (win as many games as you can). It takes x# wins to get into the playoffs. If you're the team that hits x, it doesn't matter how many teams are at x-1.
Baseball Reference has us at 14.1%.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-playoff-odds.shtml
Fangraphs has 19.4%.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Current betting odds appear to be 4:1 (20% but with juice, so lower).
https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/
538 had them at 35% but that's when they were 39-34.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/
Baseball Reference only factors in past performance + regression so I think they're probably a bit low, but just under 20% is probably right.
Hopefully will have more clarity by the deadline.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-playoff-odds.shtml
Fangraphs has 19.4%.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Current betting odds appear to be 4:1 (20% but with juice, so lower).
https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/playoff-prop/
538 had them at 35% but that's when they were 39-34.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-mlb-predictions/
Baseball Reference only factors in past performance + regression so I think they're probably a bit low, but just under 20% is probably right.
Hopefully will have more clarity by the deadline.
If you are behind only one team, you only have to outplay one team to overtake. If you are behind 7 teams, you have to outplay all of them. Houston could suffer a rash of injuries in the 2nd half, but because we're also behind Toronto, they play slightly better than we do and they take the spot instead.
Kinda true and kinda not true. You could be behind only one team but ahead of another by just a game so yeah you “only” have to play better than the team ahead of you. But you also have to stay ahead of the team behind you. Which might not at all be easy either.
To me, the "behind X number of teams" argument matters a lot more in the last month or so of the season. There is loads of time left, and all of the teams around them are just as flawed as the Sox are. They really need to go on a real run of playing well, though, and it would be nice if they did it before the trade deadline.
Isn't WC3 the focus ATM? The real issue is how many games are left in the season and how many games to make up. Currently the MFY are in the third spot, Toronto is 2 games back, LA is 3 games back and the Sox are 4 games back. Those same standings with 10 games left would be an issue not as much with 77 games left.
I bet before the season started that the Red Sox would win between 82 and 87 games at draft kings. They are a little worse - but not much given the injuries - than I expected. Letting Wacha/Eovaldi go and Kluber and Pivetta not being effective as starters has really hurt and I did not expect either to regress this much. I am disappointed in Houck/Whitlock a bit. Bello has been good and Paxton has clearly surprised, though both are outperforming (Paxton ERA 2.7, xFIP 3.29; Bello 3.08, xFIP 3.82).
In terms of the Wild Card the Yankees are going to get better (Judge will return and Rhondon is already on a rehab assignment). The Jays have talent as well - catching either is certainly possible but I don't think we are as talented as either.
Longer term good things are happening (Casas/Bello/Wong/Duran) and if either Houck or Whitlock can develop into starters you have a pretty good group of young starting pitching.
In terms of the Wild Card the Yankees are going to get better (Judge will return and Rhondon is already on a rehab assignment). The Jays have talent as well - catching either is certainly possible but I don't think we are as talented as either.
Longer term good things are happening (Casas/Bello/Wong/Duran) and if either Houck or Whitlock can develop into starters you have a pretty good group of young starting pitching.
Trying to see this as glass half-full....
1. They've played one of the toughest schedules in baseball, have had a mind-blowing amount of injuries (and to key people too), and they're still at .500, which is rather amazing.
2. They SHOULD be getting back, at least for the last two months (and with no trades), Sale (who was great when healthy), Story, Paxton, McGuire, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Houck. That's a TON of reinforcements for the last two months of the season.
3. When Story comes back it solves a lot of problems. He shores up SS and provides a really good RH bat, and it frees Kiké up to play CF or do his utility man routine.
4. The development of Duran and Casas in particular has been outstanding. Bello too, of course.
When the reinforcements arrive, this should be the starting roster:
C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Duran
RF - Verdugo
DH - Turner
Bench - McGuire, Kiké, Duvall, Refsnyder, Valdez, Chang
Lineup: Duran, Story, Devers, Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Verdugo, Arroyo, Wong (something like that) - that's pretty good...it lengthens the lineup considerably
Rotation - Sale, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, Houck
Bullpen - Schreiber, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Winckowski, Crawford, Sheriff, Murphy
(I know that's more than 26 guys, so they can figure out the details)
That is a good overall team. Not elite, but good. Definitely one that can compete for the playoffs and IN the playoffs, should they make it.
Now that's a half-full outlook. Obviously a lot can go wrong with it. But it's not hard for me to see room for optimism over the second half of the season.
1. They've played one of the toughest schedules in baseball, have had a mind-blowing amount of injuries (and to key people too), and they're still at .500, which is rather amazing.
2. They SHOULD be getting back, at least for the last two months (and with no trades), Sale (who was great when healthy), Story, Paxton, McGuire, Whitlock, Schreiber, and Houck. That's a TON of reinforcements for the last two months of the season.
3. When Story comes back it solves a lot of problems. He shores up SS and provides a really good RH bat, and it frees Kiké up to play CF or do his utility man routine.
4. The development of Duran and Casas in particular has been outstanding. Bello too, of course.
When the reinforcements arrive, this should be the starting roster:
C - Wong
1b - Casas
2b - Arroyo
3b - Devers
SS - Story
LF - Yoshida
CF - Duran
RF - Verdugo
DH - Turner
Bench - McGuire, Kiké, Duvall, Refsnyder, Valdez, Chang
Lineup: Duran, Story, Devers, Yoshida, Turner, Casas, Verdugo, Arroyo, Wong (something like that) - that's pretty good...it lengthens the lineup considerably
Rotation - Sale, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock, Houck
Bullpen - Schreiber, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Winckowski, Crawford, Sheriff, Murphy
(I know that's more than 26 guys, so they can figure out the details)
That is a good overall team. Not elite, but good. Definitely one that can compete for the playoffs and IN the playoffs, should they make it.
Now that's a half-full outlook. Obviously a lot can go wrong with it. But it's not hard for me to see room for optimism over the second half of the season.
We have, collectively, a .615 OPS with poor defense from the SS spot. That is considerably sub-replacement level. Chang should provide above replacement level play in the near term — it sounds like he’s back this week — and it’s not hard to imagine Trevor Story improving that mark considerably, even if there are just sixty games left or what have you when he returns.