I wanted to keep Jimmy over Brady... and LOCKED!!!!!

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Ed Hillel

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I don't know the cap rules, either. But they went through this a few years ago with Brady and Cassel (lower salaries, but also a lower cap) and were able to manage it then, so I would have thought they could do the same thing now.
The problem is nobody knew Jimmy was as good as he’s shown, or the Pats would have gotten far more than a second. Jimmy at 25 million with 6 quarters of tape wasn’t going to end well for the Pats in the offseason. Would anyone have wanted him for free at 25 million, let alone give anything up? Then what happens? You have 45 million in QB payroll and are forced to trade Brady I guess. Cassel had 16 games of tape.
 
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Captaincoop

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On what basis do you make either of those claims? Those are garden variety hot takezz.
Those are the two things that make sense.

It does not make sense that Belichick got caught in a situation where he had to give away a likely top ten NFL quarterback for a second round pick. He does not just make mistakes like that.
 

InstaFace

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Most of the guys that were "flash in the pans" did it on teams that they had been with for at least a while, even if it was just one training camp for example with RG3.

I think it's very impressive for Jimmy G to go to a new team in mid-season and do what he's doing. I think (admittedly with nothing really to back it up) this makes it a lot more likely he's the real deal.
People always forget that our knowledge of Jimmy's skills isn't limited to 6 quarters of game action plus team comments. The guy started preseason games for us for 3 years running. I remember the biggest Pats fan in my circle of friends, who actually watches preseason, excitedly telling me in 2014, "have you seen this new QB they got? He looks really good!". JG came into the Kansas City blowout game that year and drove us down the field for a morale-recovering TD.

We basically have a 4-year track record of the guy looking and sounding like a competent NFL starter. Is it hugely deep? No. Could anyone have projected what he's already doing in SF? No. But he's not nearly as much of a mystery as people want to believe.

I also think comparing him to Matt Flynn, though, does him a huge disservice. Matt Flynn was Matt Cassell, riding shotgun on a deep team roster coming off a championship run, and doing competently, but looking way higher than his station. On the other end, RG3 might have been Randall Cunningham if he hadn't gotten Shanahan'd in that playoff game. There aren't many QBs with 4 starts like this in a row who then crashed and burned for reasons other than injury. Everyone knew Tebow was getting it done with his defense and running game, not his arm and decision-making, and Belichick sure made that clear to everyone.
 

ifmanis5

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I’m with Face on this. There was enough tape on JG to know he was a terrific QB. I will always be puzzled not that they sold him off but when and for how little. And why wasn’t the whole league beating down their door offering the moon for him? Perhaps they were and we’ll never know.
 

Ed Hillel

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Those are the two things that make sense.

It does not make sense that Belichick got caught in a situation where he had to give away a likely top ten NFL quarterback for a second round pick. He does not just make mistakes like that.
Yes, he “got caught in that situation” because he drafted a GOAT QB and possibly another top 5 QB and couldn’t play or keep both because of free agency. The value of one was somewhat limited because his playing time was limited (because he drafted GOAT QB) and a bunch of poorly run teams thought the better option was drafting Deshon Kizer and Mitch Trubisky when they could have had him for super cheap for a season and evaluated from there.

I’m trying to imagine a world in which Boston sports legend Tom Brady wins league MVP and Superbowl MVP and is then shipped off with a 15 million dead cap hit while Jimmy gets a massive contract. If Jimmy doesn’t become a top 5 QB the same people screaming now would be breaking windows with their decibel levels.
 

Super Nomario

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People always forget that our knowledge of Jimmy's skills isn't limited to 6 quarters of game action plus team comments. The guy started preseason games for us for 3 years running. I remember the biggest Pats fan in my circle of friends, who actually watches preseason, excitedly telling me in 2014, "have you seen this new QB they got? He looks really good!". JG came into the Kansas City blowout game that year and drove us down the field for a morale-recovering TD.
Eh, his preseason career was up-and-down. He looked great as a rookie, but was a lot spottier in his second and third preseasons. And it's preseason.

Kittle and Celek, while not Gronk, are both better than the Pats other TEs. Hyde and Brieda are more than serviceable. Jimmy has done a lot with less talent than he had with the Pats last year, but the entire 49ers team is playing great right now. From the defense to Gould.
Re: the bolded; it's worth noting that the Pats didn't have Gronk for either of Garoppolo's starts last year, and in the opener they didn't have Nate Solder, either.

Those are the two things that make sense.

It does not make sense that Belichick got caught in a situation where he had to give away a likely top ten NFL quarterback for a second round pick. He does not just make mistakes like that.
Why not? He gave away Chandler Jones, currently leading the NFL in sacks, for a late 2. He gave away Jamie Collins, a top 10 LB, for a late three. He let Revis, still a top-five CB at the time, walk away for nothing. Belichick trades guys, and sometimes he maximizes value, and sometimes he keeps them for their on-field value but loses leverage in terms of their trade value.
 

Hagios

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I’m with Face on this. There was enough tape on JG to know he was a terrific QB. I will always be puzzled not that they sold him off but when and for how little. And why wasn’t the whole league beating down their door offering the moon for him? Perhaps they were and we’ll never know.
I think the rest of the league has heavily discounted the value of Patriots QB’s because of the lack of success of Cassell, Mallett, etc. in other systems.
 

InstaFace

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I’m with Face on this. There was enough tape on JG to know he was a terrific QB. I will always be puzzled not that they sold him off but when and for how little. And why wasn’t the whole league beating down their door offering the moon for him? Perhaps they were and we’ll never know.
That's the part I'm not bothered by. Belichick highly valued high-quality Brady Insurance during a year where he had a true title-contender roster. He also valued it the last 3 years, in which he won 2 titles, but also needed that insurance more than most might have predicted. Waiting this long to trade him is just a valuation of how much Bill values insurance for his 40-year-old QB.

There just aren't QBs available to ride the bench who are anywhere near capable of sustaining a super bowl run after the starter goes down. Philly with Foles is about as close as I can recall in at least a decade, unless you count Denver 2015 with Osweiler (and say what you will about Peyton's state at that point, I rather doubt Brock would have won 3 playoff games).

I actually consider the trade with SF to be a rare win-win for two franchises. Belichick's choices were, take less than full market value, but still a good asset - or let him walk for nothing in the offseason. Or, I suppose, do the unthinkable and trade Brady, either as he's coming off a Super Bowl MVP, or in the middle of an MVP-caliber season. SF got some excitement in their season and the inside track to evaluate and retain the services of an above-average QB (albeit at full market value), which is way more value than they paid. NE got something non-trivial for an asset that would have gone to zero two months later. It could suck for us in a few years, but given the choices at the time, I have no problem with how things worked out, I think both teams ended up better off.

edit: no, the part that bothers me is that no other NFL GM thought it worth paying more than SF's 2nd-rounder last offseason or during this season. Cleveland could have traded us Houston's 1st (currently #5) for JG and a few other picks and been much better off, without putting their #1 overall into play. Arizona (at #13 right now) would be a much better franchise. Cincinnati at #10? I'm willing to bet BB would have taken a high 2nd plus a 3rd and picked it over the SF deal. Every one of them either overplayed their leverage, or were ignoring all the tells they were picking up from BB that Jimmy G was in fact a premium talent and Belichick really fucking wished he didn't have to trade him.
 
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ifmanis5

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I think the rest of the league has heavily discounted the value of Patriots QB’s because of the lack of success of Cassell, Mallett, etc. in other systems.
That is a very good theory. But if I was in the shoes of a team without a good QB I’d have been all over JG early and often this offseason.
 

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I'm not enough of a capologist to really know how the timing works but it's possible that the timing essentially would have required an outright release or trade of Brady this year, which was not possible. The Patriots could not have traded or cut Brady this year once the league year started.
It's my recollection that SF asked for Brady first, and Bill shut that right down. "You're asking me to trade you the GOAT"?

He could have said "Yes, for 2 first rounders" and moved on to Jimmy. That seems like what Danny would have done. It's not a crazy proposition if you think that Jimmy is the next Steve Young. We don't have the data that Bill had at his command and have no way of knowing whether he was being sentimental or clinical. But if he has opted to trade TB12 for a boatload of picks, by reaction would have been, In Bill we trust."
 

Al Zarilla

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To answer about the bolded I was just pointing out that the author of the article seems to be making a great leap calling Jimmy the best player in the NFL.

And also to the bolded - I would just like to say that the panning of Jimmy's weapons is a bit overstated.
Goodwin has been playing like a man possessed. He has been amazing since the Giants game (with CJ at QB).

Kittle and Celek, while not Gronk, are both better than the Pats other TEs. Hyde and Brieda are more than serviceable. Jimmy has done a lot with less talent than he had with the Pats last year, but the entire 49ers team is playing great right now. From the defense to Gould.
I’ve heard some football talking heads, and not just Bay Area guys but also NFL Network guys, say that the whole team, offense, defense, etc. is rallying around Jimmy and playing much better because of him. It’s getting Curazy! I didn’t watch much of the 49ers this year before Jimmy, but was the defense flying around and making plays like yesterday? They did give up a lot of points but some were in garbage time. Definitely a completely different team.
 

ifmanis5

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Brady deserves to dictate the terms of his career. A ring for each finger clinches that. JG was odd man out but I’ll never get why the Browns didn’t offer a first or why BB didn’t push for that. This team has given us so much success that it’s hard to be mad or second guess these things from the outside.
 

InstaFace

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It's my recollection that SF asked for Brady first, and Bill shut that right down. "You're asking me to trade you the GOAT"?

He could have said "Yes, for 2 first rounders" and moved on to Jimmy. That seems like what Danny would have done. It's not a crazy proposition if you think that Jimmy is the next Steve Young. We don't have the data that Bill had at his command and have no way of knowing whether he was being sentimental or clinical. But if he has opted to trade TB12 for a boatload of picks, by reaction would have been, In Bill we trust."
Yup. Or Belichick might have said that the price was the RG3 trade - 3 firsts and a high 2nd. Lynch says he was laughed off the phone when he asked if Brady was available, but who knows how the conversation went, maybe it was Belichick laughed off the phone. But even if you think Jimmy is the next Steve Young - a top-5 QB for a decade who's got a title-winning run in him - it's possible Belichick still thinks Brady brings more to his franchise for the next X years, given everything he sees in Brady this year and what predictors he has for going forward. Danny might have quoted a price, it's true, but what would that price be if he had LeBron James on the roster? He would need to get a return that would put anything Red Auerbach ever got to shame, and even then he'd be second-guessed unless he ended up with the Yankees' 90s dynasty.

The signature move of Belichick's career as a head coach is drafting an overlooked QB at #199, keeping 4 QBs on the roster in 2000, and then keeping Brady as starter even when Bledsoe was healthy and trading the latter in the offseason. All of which were prescient but, at the time, were very ballsy. His reputation rests on many small decisions, but its pillar is his decision-making on Brady. If there's one player in history who Belichick isn't going to sell early on... it's Lawrence Taylor, but if there's two it's LT and Brady.
 

dcmissle

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It's my recollection that SF asked for Brady first, and Bill shut that right down. "You're asking me to trade you the GOAT"?

He could have said "Yes, for 2 first rounders" and moved on to Jimmy. That seems like what Danny would have done. It's not a crazy proposition if you think that Jimmy is the next Steve Young. We don't have the data that Bill had at his command and have no way of knowing whether he was being sentimental or clinical. But if he has opted to trade TB12 for a boatload of picks, by reaction would have been, In Bill we trust."
My recollection is Lynch asked for JG. Bill said, not available. Lynch then asked about TB, and BB laughed.

Lynch then closed the loop at the deadline and got his man. Smart of Lynch.

The "haul" for JG was always wishful thinking. There is the history, noted above, of Patriots' back-ups never panning out as legit starters and the concern that induced. There also is the reality that teams almost universally overvalue their first round picks.

My sense is JG will turn out to be an incredible bargain for the 49ers, but I don't think there was anything to be done about it, especially since the Pats seemed determined to hold on to JG if they could. If they are to be faulted for anything, it is perhaps being overly optimistic that they could persuade JG to remain in the fold. JG held all the cards.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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It's my recollection that SF asked for Brady first, and Bill shut that right down. "You're asking me to trade you the GOAT"?

He could have said "Yes, for 2 first rounders" and moved on to Jimmy. That seems like what Danny would have done. It's not a crazy proposition if you think that Jimmy is the next Steve Young. We don't have the data that Bill had at his command and have no way of knowing whether he was being sentimental or clinical. But if he has opted to trade TB12 for a boatload of picks, by reaction would have been, In Bill we trust."
They would have needed to free upwards of $14 million to trade Brady mid-season. I think it's not just Brady being GOAT. Maybe they could have split it over two years (I'm not sure) but where is $14 million coming from mid-season? Look at Miguel's page. The money isn't there. Who can you cut to make that kind of room mid-year? Amendola is the best option but he doesn't get you even halfway.
 

heavyde050

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I’ve heard some football talking heads, and not just Bay Area guys but also NFL Network guys, say that the whole team, offense, defense, etc. is rallying around Jimmy and playing much better because of him. It’s getting Curazy! I didn’t watch much of the 49ers this year before Jimmy, but was the defense flying around and making plays like yesterday? They did give up a lot of points but some were in garbage time. Definitely a completely different team.
Yeah exactly. And the 49ers kept finding ways to lose earlier in the year. I mean they probably should have beaten the Rams and the Redskins.
Now everything is coming up their way.
Jimmy is a huge part, but credit also to Lynch and Kyle for the team building. This current team is much better than last year's version.
 

Dotrat

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For one year.

I’d let Butler walk, trust Scar with the line and either draft or trade for replacements for any of the guys demanding big money on the OL, let Lewis, who will be 28 next season, walk and lean on White and Gillislee more, let Slater walk given his age and trust in the “ace” role transition to Ebner, and just come to terms overall with the idea that for one year I’d have to hamstring the cap in order to protect the long-term health of the roster, which starts with the QB position.

This isn’t as impossible as some people are acting like it is. Half the people you’re talking about extending were picked up off of the scrap heap in the first place. For one year, you’d just have to go back to it. There’s enough talent elsewhere on the roster to keep the team competitive.

“Dead money” (in terms of cap dollars and overspending at some positions) happens when teams are in transition. Sometimes you have to work around it in the short-term for the health of the team in the long-term.

Again, I’m okay with the route they’ve gone, it’s just not my preferred one. Hopefully they find a stud QB in this year’s relatively deep draft.
Garappolo was only re-signing with the Pats if he could play, that is, start—and barring injury, he wasn’t going to be starting for NE in 2018. So while fun to muse about, this is all moot, is it not?
 

Ralphwiggum

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Those are the two things that make sense.

It does not make sense that Belichick got caught in a situation where he had to give away a likely top ten NFL quarterback for a second round pick. He does not just make mistakes like that.
Or he’s decided that he’s going to treat Brady differently than any other player who has ever played for him, for some pretty obvious reasons.

We really don’t know what their relationship is like off the field, but on the field Brady is pretty much the perfect QB for a coach like BB. It is so much easier for a coach to demand perfection from the other 52 players when the best player on the team is maniacal in his preparation. So maybe he decided that he wouldn’t have 5 rings without TB, and that he deserves to go out on his own terms.

I mean, we don’t know, but that’s as plausible to me as either of your scenarios.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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I don't know the cap rules, either. But they went through this a few years ago with Brady and Cassel (lower salaries, but also a lower cap) and were able to manage it then, so I would have thought they could do the same thing now.
These guys are so good with the cap, that I bet there are some hidden dollars to access in there that I might not be seeing. But pretty much the only way I can see it would be to release Cooks before the new cap year deadline in March.

The problem is, you cannot guarantee yourself the ability to do that. Fifth year rookie option contracts fully vest for injury. So if he tears an ACL in the playoffs, you are stuck. The only way to be sure to get access to his cap dollars is to cut him when healthy this year. Anything else is flipping a coin.
 

bankshot1

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The one element of the JG trade I don't get is why didn't BB have a 24-hour auction for the guy? Call a few teams and let it rip and weigh offers.

I understand not wanting him in Cleveland and out of conference, but couldn't that threat been leverged to get a #2 and a #3 from SF, or get additional draft comp from the Browns that it would have been dumb not to take a chance?
 

Koufax

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I did not understand the cap implications. Having reviewed them I now see that there is no way they could have traded TB12 this year. Maybe they could have pulled off franchising JG in the offseason and then traded TB12. Trying to hang onto both seems like a losing strategy. Why do you need both? Either JG is Steve Young to TB's Joe Montana or he isn't. If he had shown to the coaching staff that he was a superstar in the making, maybe trading TB12 next offseason might have been the right call, but apparently he didn't show enough while here for the coaches to make that move.
 

Captaincoop

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Yes, he “got caught in that situation” because he drafted a GOAT QB and possibly another top 5 QB and couldn’t play or keep both because of free agency. The value of one was somewhat limited because his playing time was limited (because he drafted GOAT QB) and a bunch of poorly run teams thought the better option was drafting Deshon Kizer and Mitch Trubisky when they could have had him for super cheap for a season and evaluated from there.

I’m trying to imagine a world in which Boston sports legend Tom Brady wins league MVP and Superbowl MVP and is then shipped off with a 15 million dead cap hit while Jimmy gets a massive contract. If Jimmy doesn’t become a top 5 QB the same people screaming now would be breaking windows with their decibel levels.
Tom Brady is 40 years old. If he's still starting and playing above average football in September 2019, I will switch teams and agree with you.

I'm going with logic and history and guessing he won't be.
 

Ralphwiggum

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Wilson has a Super Bowl, almost a 2nd, and is basically a one-man show this year for Seattle. Wentz was probably going to be the MVP before he got hurt, so those two guys are at this point clearly ahead of Jimmy until we see more.
 

lars10

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In general my top 4

Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Benny

JG is not the next guy.

But when Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Wilson, Ryan Stafford, are considered for the 5th spot, is Garroppolo that much of a stretch?
Until he’s had at least two seasons under his belt as a starter? Def yes.
 

Captaincoop

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Or he’s decided that he’s going to treat Brady differently than any other player who has ever played for him, for some pretty obvious reasons.

We really don’t know what their relationship is like off the field, but on the field Brady is pretty much the perfect QB for a coach like BB. It is so much easier for a coach to demand perfection from the other 52 players when the best player on the team is maniacal in his preparation. So maybe he decided that he wouldn’t have 5 rings without TB, and that he deserves to go out on his own terms.

I mean, we don’t know, but that’s as plausible to me as either of your scenarios.
I think that's possible, but probably only if Belichick himself is also almost done. That's one of my scenarios.
 

lars10

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Tom Brady is 40 years old. If he's still starting and playing above average football in September 2019, I will switch teams and agree with you.

I'm going with logic and history and guessing he won't be.
How many 40 year olds in history have had almost their best season?
 

heavyde050

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In general my top 4

Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Benny

JG is not the next guy.

But when Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Wilson, Ryan Stafford, are considered for the 5th spot, is Garroppolo that much of a stretch?
Wentz and Wilson are both on another level than Jimmy G. Probably Rivers too, but he is getting older.
I would put Jimmy with good Goff from this year.
 

Ed Hillel

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Tom Brady is 40 years old. If he's still starting and playing above average football in September 2019, I will switch teams and agree with you.

I'm going with logic and history and guessing he won't be.
I don’t think logic suggests Brady will be average in a year and a half after he’ll probably secure league MVP in a season the defense has been middling and his top 3 WR from last year have missed most or all the season. Forty years old or not. Tom Brady is not just anyone else in terms of skill, talent, preparation, and taking care of himself.

Wentz and Wilson are both on another level than Jimmy G. Probably Rivers too, but he is getting older.
I would put Jimmy with good Goff from this year.
Setting aside sample size, I think Goff is underselling Jimmy, because the Niners’ skill position players, outside of their fullback, are turrrrrable. Goff has a top 2 player this year to hand the ball to and some serious talent at WR.

Prom night
 
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bankshot1

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Wilson is sort of a freak at QB, who also had the benefit of playing with an all-time great defense. Wentz look(ed) real good, who also has a pretty good D.But both should be ranked ahead of JG

Brady, Brees Benny and Rivers will likely be retired in 2-4 years.

So there may be some openings in the top 5 coming up in the near future.

JG isn't there yet, but for a guy who took over a terrible team mid-season he's climbing fast, so he may be a top 5 guy sooner rather than later..
 

Unin10D

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Tin foil hat time: this is all part of BB's plan.

The way JG has played this season, expectations are going to be extremely high going into next year. And now DCs have more tape on him. So he's going to fall to earth next year.

Meanwhile, TB12 will play his final season in 2018. There has been a small yet appreciable decline this year that will be more noticeable next year. Brady is good enough to wrap up his career with at least another AFCCG appearance and calls it quits.

Meanwhile, JG, who bet on himself and played on the franchise tag in 2018 has seen his market diminish ever so slightly. BB offers him the reigns, and he signs in NE


Honestly I have no idea. But I've learned if anything to never doubt BB
 

heavyde050

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I don’t think logic suggests Brady will be average in a year and a half after he’ll probably secure league MVP in a season the defense has been middling and his top 3 WR from last year have missed most or all the season. Forty years old or not. Tom Brady is not just anyone else in terms of skill, talent, preparation, and taking care of himself.


Setting aside sample size, I think Goff is underselling Jimmy, because the Niners’ skill position players, outside of their fullback, are turrrrrable. Goff has a top 2 player this year to hand the ball to and some serious talent at WR.


I will give you Gurley but just watch a 49ers game - his TEs and receivers are playing great. Against the Titans, Jimmy threw a ball into at least double coverage and Goodwin ripped it from the DB. Kittle and Celek have been balling.
Goff has Watkins (underachieved his entire career) and Robert Woods and the rookie Kupp?
Let's not make it sound like Goff has 2013 Broncos offensive weapons.
And also let's not make it sound like the 49ers have 1992 Patriots weapons on offense.
It wasn't meant to undersell Jimmy; Goff was the number one pick. In theory, he should be better than Jimmy.
 

Eddie Jurak

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That's the part I'm not bothered by. Belichick highly valued high-quality Brady Insurance during a year where he had a true title-contender roster. He also valued it the last 3 years, in which he won 2 titles, but also needed that insurance more than most might have predicted. Waiting this long to trade him is just a valuation of how much Bill values insurance for his 40-year-old QB.
I agree with this line of thought, but that implies that BB decided to throw caution to the wind and go uninsured for the last half season + playoffs, which seems weird.

I actually consider the trade with SF to be a rare win-win for two franchises. Belichick's choices were, take less than full market value, but still a good asset - or let him walk for nothing in the offseason.
Could he not have dealt Jimmy for, say, at least a third after the season? I'd be inclined to cll that fair value for 8 games + postseason + coverage against the possibility that something really bad happens to Brady in that span. I guess this depends in part on league rules for when guys can be dealt.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Tin foil hat time: this is all part of BB's plan.

The way JG has played this season, expectations are going to be extremely high going into next year. And now DCs have more tape on him. So he's going to fall to earth next year.

Meanwhile, TB12 will play his final season in 2018. There has been a small yet appreciable decline this year that will be more noticeable next year. Brady is good enough to wrap up his career with at least another AFCCG appearance and calls it quits.

Meanwhile, JG, who bet on himself and played on the franchise tag in 2018 has seen his market diminish ever so slightly. BB offers him the reigns, and he signs in NE


Honestly I have no idea. But I've learned if anything to never doubt BB
I'd be absolute shocked if Jimmy doesn't sign a long term extension in the offseason.
 

slowstrung

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Tin foil hat time: this is all part of BB's plan.

The way JG has played this season, expectations are going to be extremely high going into next year. And now DCs have more tape on him. So he's going to fall to earth next year.

Meanwhile, TB12 will play his final season in 2018. There has been a small yet appreciable decline this year that will be more noticeable next year. Brady is good enough to wrap up his career with at least another AFCCG appearance and calls it quits.

Meanwhile, JG, who bet on himself and played on the franchise tag in 2018 has seen his market diminish ever so slightly. BB offers him the reigns, and he signs in NE


Honestly I have no idea. But I've learned if anything to never doubt BB
Even this seems questionable. Obviously 40 is 40, but he's been excellent all year, if not the absolute beast of 2007 or 2010. Without Edelman, Mitchell, and some Hogan. And a shaky OL, to say the least. Gronk has been healthier than usual, and Brady has taken full advantage, but he's still only one option. I tend to think if he had more of his usual cabal, we wouldn't think we're seeing a decline at all.
 

Super Nomario

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In general my top 4

Brady
Rodgers
Brees
Benny

JG is not the next guy.

But when Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Wilson, Ryan Stafford, are considered for the 5th spot, is Garroppolo that much of a stretch?
I don't think it is, but once you get in the 4-12 range or so, it gets pretty murky. Any of those guys (and Cam Newton probably in that conversation, too) can look like an MVP one year, or like an average guy that next. They're all expensive, and none of them have won Super Bowls after they've gotten paid. That's the problem with Jimmy's situation - if he's Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford, SF is probably pretty happy with that because that's a huge improvement over what they had, but you need everything to break right to win a championship still.

I agree with this line of thought, but that implies that BB decided to throw caution to the wind and go uninsured for the last half season + playoffs, which seems weird.
I think getting Hoyer back was a big point in favor of the deal.

Could he not have dealt Jimmy for, say, at least a third after the season? I'd be inclined to cll that fair value for 8 games + postseason + coverage against the possibility that something really bad happens to Brady in that span. I guess this depends in part on league rules for when guys can be dealt.
There are two issues. One, you have to squeeze both of them under the cap temporarily, which would be a problem. Two, you can't trade Garoppolo until he signs his franchise tender - this is why the Panthers couldn't just trade just Norman a couple years ago - so he holds some of the cards and can make it difficult to trade him and plan around his salary.

edit: no, the part that bothers me is that no other NFL GM thought it worth paying more than SF's 2nd-rounder last offseason or during this season. Cleveland could have traded us Houston's 1st (currently #5) for JG and a few other picks and been much better off, without putting their #1 overall into play. Arizona (at #13 right now) would be a much better franchise. Cincinnati at #10? I'm willing to bet BB would have taken a high 2nd plus a 3rd and picked it over the SF deal. Every one of them either overplayed their leverage, or were ignoring all the tells they were picking up from BB that Jimmy G was in fact a premium talent and Belichick really fucking wished he didn't have to trade him.
There's no precedent for this kind of trade. Remember, Garoppolo was pick 52 coming out of college and he'd barely played since then. His stock had risen, but risen to high first round? That's a stretch. Probably the biggest historical comp was Brett Favre, a second-round pick that the Packers traded a first for, but Favre had only played a year so he was under cost control way longer. Garoppolo offers basically none of the low-cost benefit of a draft pick while being hardly any more established.

I do wonder what would have happened in the alternate reality where Garoppolo doesn't sprain his AC joint last year and plays four games instead of one-and-a-half.
 
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dcmissle

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Another factor. There seems to be a general presumption that every team college scouts every player, esp QBs. Not so. Not in depth anyway.

In JG’s case, it just so happens that Shanahan did. Here is an article from Feb 2017, indicating the insight that the 49ers had at that time:

https://www.google.com/amp/ninerswire.usatoday.com/2017/02/02/kyle-shanahan-gives-scouting-report-on-jimmy-garoppolo/amp/

And it still wasn’t sufficient to pry more than a second rounder from them. Why? Well we kept him for a half a year + it’s a buyer’s market. Perceived deep QB draft class; Cousins hitting free agency (Brees too, though I assume he’ll resign in NO).

The minute you start pressing SF for multiple high picks, SF says “fuck it, we’ll keep the picks and pay the money premium for Cousins. We have $118 MM in cap space.” Shanahan tutored Cousins and was the first guy at the NFL level to think highly of him.

It’s all supply and demand. All things considered the timing from the Pats’ perspective could not have been worse.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Are people really convinced that Garoppolo is a top five QB?

I mean, eventually he may well be but at present?
No, he's not. At present, he's not even close. Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Carr, Stafford, Ryan, Watson, Wilson, Rivers, Wentz, Goff, Big Ben, Mariota, Winston and on and on...

I kind of alluded to this in my post earlier, and I'm not going to respond to everyone individually, but I'll just bring up this part of it again:



Jimmy may very well turn into a great quarterback. Or he could turn into Matt Flynn, RG3, Nick Foles, Daunte Culpepper or a million other guys that lit the world on fire for 3 games, or even a couple seasons, and then turned into shit. Who the fuck knows?

It is wrong, absolutely wrong, to compare Jimmy to those other guys. Yes, he hasn't played that much, which is like them. But he's also been here for 3.5 years, stepped up when needed, and - based on what Bill said about him at the trade press conference and the Patriots' unwillingness to trade him until now - has the confidence of the Pats' brain trust in a way that "Matt Flynn, RG3, Nick Foles, Culpepper, or a million other guys" never came close to. While DOTB's whole post was a very good articulation of the trade Jimmy view, this specific "only 3 games" argument I'm quoting is just flat wrong, it is a straw man.
Eddie, I thought i was pretty clearly not talking about just 3 games. That's a straw man. There have been guys that lit the world on fire for a lot longer than 3 games, or 5 games or whatever Jimmy has played, and then turned to shit. My NFL knowledge doesn't just date back 10 years, I remember a lot of names besides these:

Mark Rypien was incredible for a year in Washington, led them to a Super Bowl, and was MVP of that game. Gets hurt the next year and sucks for the rest of his career.

Scott Mitchell got the starting job in Detroit, after taking over for Marino in Miami, and was expected to be the savior, and for an entire season, he was. Then he turned into Scott Mitchell.

Anyone remember Derek Anderson in Cleveland in 2007?

Elvis Grbac, Jake Delhomme, Josh Freeman, Marc Bulger....

This list really is endless, because I want to be clear, I'm not comparing these players to Jimmy G. I'm not taking into account their pedigree, their situation, none of it. All I'm saying is that the NFL is littered with guys, especially QB's, who came out like gang busters, and for whatever reason, injury, talent, etc., they disappeared or sucked not long after that. I used to laugh every time a new quarterback would light up the league for 3-4 weeks and everyone would rush to add them to their fantasy teams. It's like clockwork. Shit, Dak Prescott may very well be one of these guys soon. He looked better at points last year than Jimmy has looked this year, and now how's he doing?

My point with the original post was simple. We know exactly what we have in Tom Brady. And I'm sure BB and company have a pretty damn good idea for how much longer they'll have him than we do too. Rolling the dice with Jimmy and trading Tom in this league would simply be insane, without even getting into the cap implications or anything else. You just don't know until you know about a guy in the NFL.
 

Marciano490

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You guys bringing up Cam and Ryan and others just reinforces how variable performance is in the NFL and how difficult it is to predict year to year. Cam won MVP and now people barely mention him as a top QB. Jimmy won a few games.
 

GoDa

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Sep 25, 2017
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One thing I think Jimmy G. is going to do better is not leave his body in positions where he can get pasted.

The quick release and the ability to scramble with eyes up the field make him dangerous... but they also lead him to sometimes wait until the very last split second to release the ball from less than optimal balance situations. The injury vs. Miami was an example. The 2nd TD pass this weekend (as nice as it was) is another.
 

eustis22

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Nov 14, 2016
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obody knew Jimmy was as good as he’s shown
I knew.

After my Jlaw, ScarJo twins issue, my bggest fantasy was seguing the last 16 years into the next 15 as the GOAT morphed into The Groop and we could watch and laugh as the Nation cried harder.

Now I get year after year of some version of a McKown.

Thanks, Bill.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Jimmy may very well turn into a great quarterback. Or he could turn into Matt Flynn, RG3, Nick Foles, Daunte Culpepper or a million other guys that lit the world on fire for 3 games, or even a couple seasons, and then turned into shit. Who the fuck knows?

Eddie, I thought i was pretty clearly not talking about just 3 games. That's a straw man.
Neither was I...

This list really is endless, because I want to be clear, I'm not comparing these players to Jimmy G. I'm not taking into account their pedigree, their situation, none of it. All I'm saying is that the NFL is littered with guys, especially QB's, who came out like gang busters, and for whatever reason, injury, talent, etc., they disappeared or sucked not long after that.
My point would be that we already know enough about Jimmy to differentiate him from that group. If BB thought that, he would have taken more of a "maximize asset value" approach to Jimmy - as he seemingly did with his other backup QB.
 

mauf

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JG was (and still is) much more of unknown quantity than Steve Young was when the Niners kicked Montana to the curb, and while TB12 has uncharacteristically generated some drama this season (the whole Guerrero thing), that’s a far cry from the annual Brett Favre Retirement Spectacle. So while it’s a great “what if” topic for a message board, the Pats did what any team in their position would have done.
 

Hagios

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Dec 15, 2007
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I'm on the fence about the trade, and give H78 credit for starting a great discussion.

One factor in favor of TB12 is that Brady always take a roughly 50% hometown discount whereas JG is, presumably, going to want to get paid. What should Lynch do if JG says he wants 30 million per year for five years fully guaranteed, take it or leave it? With $110 million dollars in cap room I think Lynch has got to pay him. After the Kirk Cousins debacle, JG has all the leverage. Maybe JG will decide taking a huge hometown discount is another thing to learn from TB12, but I don't see how Belichick could count on that, particularly after JG spent his first four years in NE riding the bench.
 

dcmissle

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It’s an interesting discussion.

The coldly analytical Patriot way might well have been to part ways with TB after this season. Various metrics would seem to dictate that, especially for a team focused on long term sustained success. If JG turns out as many expect, and as B.B. reportedly expects, it’s going to be far from easy to replace him. That’s one of the things that will make the 2018 draft so interesting, with all those QBs.

But — there are exceptions to every rule and approach, and I would have been surprised if this decision had broken in JG’s favor. Bob Kraft was a fan first, and like more than a few people here has lived every day of the Patriots’ 57-year history. He knows as well as all of us how checkered that history was. Bob Kraft was the recipient of, “Mr. Kraft, drafting me will be the best decision you ever made.”

Trading TB would have been every bit as much as the NYYs trading Mickey Mantle in 1960, their 57th year. More so, Tom Brady is our Babe Ruth. The NYYs won squat before Babe Ruth; look it up. You don’t do these things when push comes to shove. You just don’t.

BB understands this. The sports radio drama is just more contrived bullshit as it often is in Boston.

I have no idea what B.B. and Kraft said to each other about this. If I had to guess, I’d speculate that the conversation went along the following lines.

BB — “You know, a very good case can be made for moving on here. JG is special; TB will be 41 next season. You ought to think about it.”

Kraft — “I know. I have. We’re sticking with Tom.”

BB — “Thought so. I’m with you.”
 

Hagios

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Dec 15, 2007
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It’s an interesting discussion.

The coldly analytical Patriot way might well have been to part ways with TB after this season. Various metrics would seem to dictate that, especially for a team focused on long term sustained success. If JG turns out as many expect, and as B.B. reportedly expects, it’s going to be far from easy to replace him. That’s one of the things that will make the 2018 draft so interesting, with all those QBs.
And that thought has me swing back in the JG direction. Suppose the Pats didn't trade JG and traded Brady in the offseason (I don't know how the cap implications of doing this). They try to work out a LTD for JG but can't because he's disgruntled after years of being the backup when he wanted a chance to start. So they franchise him and the Pats win 12 or 13 games and make a deep playoff run. Now JG has had a year as The Man. This is not a Kirk Cousins situation. No QB in his right mind would leave that in order to play for a cellar-dweller with a promising young coach. The LTD gets done.
 

Super Nomario

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My point would be that we already know enough about Jimmy to differentiate him from that group. If BB thought that, he would have taken more of a "maximize asset value" approach to Jimmy - as he seemingly did with his other backup QB.
Cassel is the only guy they've maximized value on. Mallett ended up getting dealt for pennies on the dollar, Hoyer walked for nothing, Brissett got dealt for a guy who might have been cut otherwise.

And that thought has me swing back in the JG direction. Suppose the Pats didn't trade JG and traded Brady in the offseason (I don't know how the cap implications of doing this). They try to work out a LTD for JG but can't because he's disgruntled after years of being the backup when he wanted a chance to start. So they franchise him and the Pats win 12 or 13 games and make a deep playoff run. Now JG has had a year as The Man. This is not a Kirk Cousins situation. No QB in his right mind would leave that in order to play for a cellar-dweller with a promising young coach. The LTD gets done.
1) The cap implications are bad - Brady would have $14 MM dead and the QB franchise tag is north of $20 MM.
2) You can't just assume they win 12-13 games without Brady. Tom Brady is really friggin' good. The Patriots have the best offense in the league (#1 in points per drive, yards per drive, plays per drive, scoring rate, 31st in turnover rate). I have confidence Garoppolo is good enough to put together a good offense with, but a great offense that can cover for the defensive deficiencies is another matter. Getting elite-level QB play is a big part of the success formula right now. Jimmy G can be (and I think is) really good and still be a significant downgrade in the near-term.
 
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