How do we break on through to the other side... of .500?

nattysez · May 17, 2014

jhogan88 said:
What needs to happen to start winning?

Offense

They've gotten below-expectations performance from C, SS, 3B, and the outfield. Pedroia's numbers are not so far off his usual early-season numbers -- he tends to heat up when the weather does.

The guys in the minors you'd bring up to fix the catching position are hitting worse in AAA than AJP is in the majors, so I'm pessimistic there's a fix there. The OF is largely the same story unless you want to both rush Mookie and stick him in an unfamiliar position, which seems like a desperation move. Bringing up Cecchini eliminates any trade value WMB might have (though I'm not sure he has much at this point). Drew's numbers last year were not a lot better than X's are now, so bringing in Drew is not clearly an answer (and bringing up Cecchini seems like a better idea that bringing in Drew for big $ and moving X to 3b).

So unless you want to break the prospect bank for Giancarlo Stanton or try to convince the Diamondbacks to trade one of their young OF (the other bad teams don't clearly have pieces that would help the Sox), calling up Cecchini seems like the most reasonable move to shake things up. If things are really bad, you could send down JBJ, move Sizemore to CF and have Mookie play RF, but that option is fraught with peril.

Pitching

They need consistency from Doubront and Buchholz and have to pray that Peavy can be a competent fifth starter. Realistically, none of those guys are getting bumped from the rotation without an extended period of terrible pitching. Hopefully Webster and Barnes continue dealing in AAA so they are available to come up to replace one of those three if worst comes to worst.

The bullpen's been a strength, so I don't think there's anything that needs to be done there.

In all likelihood, I think Ben's going to give the team another three weeks or so to start playing better. If that doesn't happen, then I think you could see Cecchini come up for WMB to try to shake things up. But I doubt Ben's going to do anything radical. This is a championship-caliber team -- they just need to start playing like it.

Adrian's Dome · May 17, 2014

Maybe we can start by not having AJP bat against any lefties with the game on the line. Ever. Today wasn't the first occurrence.

After that, it's a mix of praying JBJ, WMB, and Clay get it together. Unfortunately, barring any trades, there's just not a ton of roster flexibility at the moment. I will say that if someone has to fall on the axe for a roster spot to open up, I vote Carp. His bad defense hamstrings the bench, and his bat hasn't exactly made up for it.

Plympton91 · May 17, 2014

Going in, I thought they were very dependent on the pitching staff to carry them. Now that Papi and Pedroia seem to be normalizing, I think the offense is what it is, So, I'd say they need Buchholz to be a #1a starter and Doubront to finally break on through to be a consisent sub 4.00 ERA 4th starter. The bullpen is more than pulling its weight despite Mujica's struggles (can we put a ban on acquiring NL central relievers for key roles?) and Miller's two hiccups this week. The other thing that killed them in Apriil was piss poor defense all around the diamond, but that appears to have normalized with the return of Victorino and Middlebrooks.
V

Cuzittt · May 17, 2014

I would love to send Bradley down. But, they can't. He is the only Centerfielder on the team and in AAA.

If Middlebrooks is hurt, DL him and bring up Cecchini. At least he has OBP skills.

garlan5 · May 17, 2014

Cuzittt said:
I would love to send Bradley down. But, they can't. He is the only Centerfielder on the team and in AAA.

? Grady and Vic ?

Cuzittt · May 17, 2014

They've moved Grady out of Center as he has not been good defensively there this season. And I'm not sure they want to put Victorino there full time either. Of course, Victorino is hurt so that's irrelevant anyway.

garlan5 · May 17, 2014

Cuzittt said:
They've moved Grady out of Center as he has not been good defensively there this season. And I'm not sure they want to put Victorino there full time either. Of course, Victorino is hurt so that's irrelevant anyway.

I agree with the assesment about grady and vic not playing fulltime there but I think they could platoon if need be. I was just picking a little. I tend to agree with what you mean.

Niastri · May 17, 2014

With the Marlins ave going down for the season, any tony hopes they might have had for a playoff run just dissipated.

The Stanton trade they may have made in the offseason might be a possibility now. If the Marlins can't win, might as well think about the future and save some money while doing it.

A shake up of the Sox lineup with another excellent bat in the lineup would go a long ways towards getting a nice win streak going.

ivanvamp · May 17, 2014

I know we have revisited the same conversation a million times now, but holycrap Giancarlo Stanton would help this team IMMENSELY. And the Sox have the resources to acquire him *and* pay him.

rembrat · May 17, 2014

Rudy Pemberton said:
The division sucks, thankfully.

The AL East reminds me of a Nascar race in which none of the top 5 cars can break away. Do they all suck? That depends on your outlook. But its still early and as long as the Sox keep pace with the pack they'll be in a good position.

nattysez · May 17, 2014

Gammo mentions Chris Denorfia as a potential acquisition target today: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-contract-extensions-for-pitchers-brad-ausmus-mookie-betts-and-more/

Not super-sexy, but he would be an offensive upgrade to JBJ and can play CF.

judyb · May 17, 2014

I know we have revisited the same conversation a million times now, but holycrap Giancarlo Stanton would help this team IMMENSELY. And the Sox have the resources to acquire him *and* pay him.

They don't have the resources to acquire him until the Marlins are willing to trade him. What part of that do you people who can't resist bringing it up constantly is so difficult to understand?

ALiveH · May 17, 2014

the original question is sort of biased b/c it's phrased in a way that implies that some action or change is required.

To get above .500 we need to score more runs than the other team in individual games more often than not.

They guys we already have need to play better.

No need to overreact - no action necessary till the trade deadline, but make a deal if the right deal is there.

So far, we've been pretty average in RS and RA, so i don't see one or another as a greater need. Improvement anywhere would be welcome. I suspect the offense is underperforming though given how good we were last year. Basically the difference is JBJ and X-man versus Ellsbury & Drew. I'm fine to ride out their (and WMB's) struggles beyond SSS until management can more accurately evaluate tem, and have this year be the "bridge year" if absolutely necessary. Competition later this year or next year from Betts, Cecchini (and maybe Swihart/Vasquez upgrade C) could provide an internal solution.

Al Zarilla · May 17, 2014

nattysez said:
Gammo mentions Chris Denorfia as a potential acquisition target today: http://www.gammonsdaily.com/gammons-notes-contract-extensions-for-pitchers-brad-ausmus-mookie-betts-and-more/

Not super-sexy, but he would be an offensive upgrade to JBJ and can play CF.

Thanks for that article. Gammons says In another month, center fielders like Chris Denorfia, whom they have tried to acquire for two years, might become available. And by then, they may know how Betts fits in the outfield.

I wonder if Gammons was going to mention other center fielders besides Denorfia but lost the thought mid-sentence. FWIW, Denorfia has always hit the Giants tough pitching staff well. Denorfia is from CT.

Yelling At Clouds · May 17, 2014

A name I remember some folks bringing up in the offseason who might be out there again pretty soon: Dexter Fowler. He's not much of a CF defensively, but he can play there and would probably be adequate in either corner spot if the need arose. And while he may have left his power in Colorado (surprise, surprise), his on-base skills are roughly the same as they've been throughout his career. Cost would probably be one-fifth of what Stanton would require. The Red Sox' equivalent of Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles would be, what, Workman and Hassan?

Alternately, they could summon Betts to Pawtucket and play him in CF there for a while; maybe being pushed would help Bradley?

geoduck no quahog · May 17, 2014

This same question could be asked of almost every team in the AL (and most teams in the NL), so panic moves are not in the cards.

I don't know how ESPN calculates their playoff percentage numbers (particularly this early in the season), but right now they have the Red Sox essentially tied with Baltimore as the fifth most likely team (out of 5) to make the post season.

As stated above, the Red Sox entered this season with 3 unproven youngsters in the lineup and the game of adjustments is still underway (except for, in my opinion, Middlebrooks - who I think must be carrying a chronic injury...perhaps to his brain). The weather many AL teams have been playing through so far has been abysmal. How many games have the Red Sox played in real baseball weather?

My point is that almost every team now has certainly identified critical needs and this strange season sees almost every team needy. In the end it's always about pitching, and the Red Sox look better than most in that area.

My biggest concern with run scoring right now is the reversion of the Red Sox to a slow team, with no real base stealing threats in the lineup. They don't have the luxury of relying mostly on slugging (as the slow Tigers do). I wish the kids were able to run more.

The Boomer · May 17, 2014

geoduck no quahog said:
This same question could be asked of almost every team in the AL (and most teams in the NL), so panic moves are not in the cards.

I don't know how ESPN calculates their playoff percentage numbers (particularly this early in the season), but right now they have the Red Sox essentially tied with Baltimore as the fifth most likely team (out of 5) to make the post season.

As stated above, the Red Sox entered this season with 3 unproven youngsters in the lineup and the game of adjustments is still underway (except for, in my opinion, Middlebrooks - who I think must be carrying a chronic injury...perhaps to his brain). The weather many AL teams have been playing through so far has been abysmal. How many games have the Red Sox played in real baseball weather?

My point is that almost every team now has certainly identified critical needs and this strange season sees almost every team needy. In the end it's always about pitching, and the Red Sox look better than most in that area.

My biggest concern with run scoring right now is the reversion of the Red Sox to a slow team, with no real base stealing threats in the lineup. They don't have the luxury of relying mostly on slugging (as the slow Tigers do). I wish the kids were able to run more.

Mookie Betts will eventually help the running game. He has been one of the most exciting prospects for the Sox in some time. He compares favorably with Ellsbury at this stage of his career. Unless they convert him to OF, they could bring Betts up to attempt a Ben Zobrist/Cesar Tovar utility regular role where he could play 3 IF and 3 OF positions to rest the regulars and improve some match ups. There is reason to think he won't be over matched hitting lead off from the start and, if he can handle that, everyone hitting behind him will perform better. They would likely hit him at the bottom of the order first thing but, hopefully, he can prove sooner rather than later that they have the lead off hitter they have been lacking to replace Ellsbury.

Plympton91 · May 17, 2014

That's another way in which Betts would help if he really can jump all the way. A longshot though.

JakeRae · May 17, 2014

Win more games than they lose.

I know people want some grand solution to the team's performance, but the real answer is that they need to hold course, hope that the offense (Ortiz excepted) remembers that they have the ability to hit for power, and wait for players to perform closer to the levels we hoped/expected they would.

The only exception I would make to the above is that Middlebrooks should be running out of rope. Cecchini projects as a modest upgrade to Middlebrooks projection (which is a significant upgrade over his performance). I'm comfortable with making that move sooner rather than later with the understanding that it is not necessarily a permanent move and that Middlebrooks could play his way back to MLB.

Philip Jeff Frye · May 17, 2014

JakeRae said:
The only exception I would make to the above is that Middlebrooks should be running out of rope. Cecchini projects as a modest upgrade to Middlebrooks projection (which is a significant upgrade over his performance). I'm comfortable with making that move sooner rather than later with the understanding that it is not necessarily a permanent move and that Middlebrooks could play his way back to MLB.

How many more chances does Middlebrooks get to lose his job and then win it back? He already did twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the post season. If they send him down again, that's pretty much got to be it, doesn't it?

Rovin Romine · May 17, 2014

Philip Jeff Frye said:
How many more chances does Middlebrooks get to lose his job and then win it back? He already did twice last year, once in the regular season and once in the post season. If they send him down again, that's pretty much got to be it, doesn't it?

Usually you give a guy a chance if he's DL'd.

***

This stretch in general reminds me of the early part of the 2012 season, where all the pieces seemed to be there - we were just waiting for everyone to kind of get it together and/or recover from those niggling little injuries.

I can't say that this team is *anywhere* near as unwatchable as the 2012 club, but in many games they have that "playing stupid enough to lose by a hair" feel. While it seems like many of the key players from 2013 have returned, we're only getting consistency out of Ortiz, Pedroia, Napoli, and to some extent, Gomes. That's just not enough in the face of Nava's disappearance, Victorino's injuries, AJP's eh-ness, Ross showing his age, Carp's reversion, Xander and JBJ getting adjusted, and WMB's inconsistency/injury. When Ortiz cools down, they'll be further exposed offensively.

Also, while it's filtered through the media, I'm not really sensing a kind of urgency to win from the get-go, as we had last year. They were embarrassed and hungry in spring training. This year, they went to the White House, and .500ish ball was OK, because they had time. Then it was playing in the cold, but that was OK, because they had time. And while X and JBJ give their "learning everyday, going to get better, did the best I can" speeches that argue for their long term mental stability, part of me wants to see them fired up to win. Now.

jimbobim · May 17, 2014

Growing pains collectively from our starting youth is the primary problem with the Sox right now. X and JBJ both bring different talents to the table when they are slumping with the bat. X(professional at bats and OBP) and JBJ( Glove in CF necessary for our outfield especially without vic).

WMB going on the DL today is a very safe maneuver. Delays a demotion to AAA and allows WMB to avoid leaving the MLB team. The man hates the Bucket. ( as a RI native i empathize its not a sweet place). Trading WMB would be high on my to do list. I don't think another Bucket stint would raise his "value" and the only way he avoids a lengthy "rehab" trip is if all my other INF options are doing nothing.

Holt( least upside i would say but could have beaten herrerra for the UTL inf job ) Cecchinni, Betts ( unconscious at the plate right now) all should be considered for the the starting 3B and UTL jobs. The production from those roles has been pathetic.

Starting pitching is fine as long as the QS Clay can make it to the mound more often then the Ubaldo, lincecum, horror show who gets hit to pieces regularly. Peavy also just needs to be a better version of dumpster from last season.

The Gray Eagle · May 17, 2014

This roster has been unbalanced and awkward all year. Sizemore was a nice gamble, but the whole idea of him is that if he is healthy enough, he can be a good hitter who can play an acceptable CF. If they've already given up on the idea of him playing CF, after some early season struggles, then he is a lot less valuable. If he is now, say, a .725 OPS guy after the injuries, then that would be really useful in CF but no better than they could get from Gomes and a platoon partner in LF.

If they are sure he is not a CF, and he no longer can hit like he did 5 years ago, then he probably isn't worth the roster gymnastics of keeping him around. I loved him as a player before the injuries, liked the pickup, thought it was a good gamble, but if he is now a corner OF only then he isn't what we need. We already have Carp and Nava who should hit not too differently from that version of Grady, and if none can play CF, then we have a roster jam in LF and hole in CF.

I think we need to give Sizemore another chance to play CF most days and see if his defense can improve. Maybe play Bradley less for a couple weeks-- a start here and there against RHP, frequently coming in as a late-inning defensive replacement-- a little mini break to see if he can get himself together without having to deal with striking out again and again. Give Sizemore one more shot to play CF most of the time for a few weeks. If he can handle it acceptably with the glove, then that could help the offense a lot. If he can't play CF and Bradley continues to flail with the bat, then either Sizemore or Carp might have to go to make room for a real CF.

Looks like we're going to have Brock Holt at 3B for a couple weeks now-- he's actually a solid OBP guy, but not a good defender at third. The way Middlebrooks was whiffing, then Holt could actually give the team OBP a boost for a bit.

Another new problem is Victorino's injury. If he is hobbled and can't play well through it, then that will be another hit to the offense. If he can't play with it and has to sit for a few days or go on the DL, then Bradley will continue to play every day, and he looks completely overmatched at the plate right now and is a big drag on the offense.

Looks like they are going to let Victorino play with a knee brace for a while, not sure how that will work out. Not promising. If he is hobbled in RF, then that makes it much harder to gamble with Sizemore in CF. Looks like the Sox might be going as Bradley goes for the immediate future, and he has been terrible at the plate for a couple weeks now.

nvalvo · May 18, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Going in, I thought they were very dependent on the pitching staff to carry them. Now that Papi and Pedroia seem to be normalizing, I think the offense is what it is, So, I'd say they need Buchholz to be a #1a starter and Doubront to finally break on through to be a consisent sub 4.00 ERA 4th starter. The bullpen is more than pulling its weight despite Mujica's struggles (can we put a ban on acquiring NL central relievers for key roles?) and Miller's two hiccups this week. The other thing that killed them in Apriil was piss poor defense all around the diamond, but that appears to have normalized with the return of Victorino and Middlebrooks.

The big steps back that Buchholz and Doubront have taken are the team's key issue going forward. Both of those guys have shown flashes, but the overall performance has been disappointing. If they can pitch well going forward, we're contenders. If not...

4.11 R/G isn't terrible for April-May production, considering the weather. We're on a slower offensive place than last year's excellent offensive club (4.9 through the end of May), but not insurmountably so, if we assume that 98 wins aren't necessary to contend. The SP performance is a bigger deal, and it's hard to see what else can be done.

Danny_Darwin said:
A name I remember some folks bringing up in the offseason who might be out there again pretty soon: Dexter Fowler. He's not much of a CF defensively, but he can play there and would probably be adequate in either corner spot if the need arose. And while he may have left his power in Colorado (surprise, surprise), his on-base skills are roughly the same as they've been throughout his career. Cost would probably be one-fifth of what Stanton would require. The Red Sox' equivalent of Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles would be, what, Workman and Hassan?

Alternately, they could summon Betts to Pawtucket and play him in CF there for a while; maybe being pushed would help Bradley?

If I'm right that SP performance is our biggest problem, I don't think I'm interested in sitting/demoting Bradley for obvious reasons. Fowler is an interesting player and a worthwhile target, however, especially if Victorino's heath/performance remains questionable. A return to a hitter's park might help him, and we need outfield help going forward, now that Nava, Victorino, and Carp have all pumpkined.

Sampo Gida · May 18, 2014

I think the team is better than they have shown, and nobody in the AL East is all that impressive. However, they could improve by signing Drew and moving XB to 3B. I would also love to see a blockbuster trade to land a impact bat in the OF, although it may need to wait until the trade market heats up. Won't bother speculating on who and for what, but the Red Sox have the prospects and money to get it done

Rasputin · May 18, 2014

Sampo Gida said:
I think the team is better than they have shown, and nobody in the AL East is all that impressive.

This is true. I think a strong second half is all it's going to take to win this division.

Sampo Gida said:
However, they could improve by signing Drew and moving XB to 3B.

Or, they could improve without signing Drew and moving Bogaerts to third just by having Bogaerts (looks like he's already doing it), Bradley, Buchholz, and Doubront play better.

Sampo Gida said:
I would also love to see a blockbuster trade to land a impact bat in the OF, although it may need to wait until the trade market heats up.

Or we could just keep the prospects and play them.

Sampo Gida said:
Won't bother speculating on who and for what, but the Red Sox have the prospects and money to get it done

LostinNJ · May 18, 2014

The worst thing they could do would be to promote prospects too soon. Mookie Betts needs his time at AA., and then he will need his time at AAA. Somewhere along the line he will also need to get used to a new position, and that shouldn't happen this year in the major leagues.

Cecchini is someone to look forward to, but he needs more time at AAA. It also sounds like they're not totally sold on him as a third baseman.

This is a team in transition. Over the next couple of years, they will try to find out what they have in Bradley, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Betts, Vasquez, Swihart, Marrero, Brentz, and all those pitchers now at Pawtucket. As a fan, I'm not too worried about 2014 or even 2015. If enough of the youngsters pan out, they'll have the financial flexibility to add a couple of major pieces and make this a dominant team for several years.

RedOctober3829 · May 19, 2014

They need to acquire a Major league caliber CF capable of playing until Bradley gets his head out of his ass at the plate. As good as he's been in the field, they can't afford to send him out there everyday with him hitting like this. Their OF depth is not good right now so he has to play every day. I realize he needs to make adjustments at the ML level and try to fight through this, but at the expense of winning games? Acquiring a 3B would be nice too. I don't want to bring up Garin or Betts before they are ready so they aren't options.

Other than this, there's not much they can do. Everybody else needs to improve especially Buchholz, Doubront, and Peavy. Maybe sacrifice a chicken to the RISP gods?

bosockboy · May 19, 2014

Since it seems evident that Clay is hurt and the DL awaits at some point, maybe be proactive and go get Samardzija. Cubs are open for business now. I'd also work on 3B before CF because at least we are getting elite defense there.

Rasputin · May 19, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They need to acquire a Major league caliber CF capable of playing until Bradley gets his head out of his ass at the plate. As good as he's been in the field, they can't afford to send him out there everyday with him hitting like this. Their OF depth is not good right now so he has to play every day. I realize he needs to make adjustments at the ML level and try to fight through this, but at the expense of winning games?

We kind of want one even when JBJ has completed his transition. We pretty much need two CFers every day and we only have two. I suspect it's going to be hard to get a decent hitting CFer because they just aren't that common.

And for the record, if breaking in X and JBJ means we miss the playoffs, I'm okay with that.

Rasputin · May 19, 2014

bosockboy said:
Since it seems evident that Clay is hurt and the DL awaits at some point, maybe be proactive and go get Samardzija. Cubs are open for business now. I'd also work on 3B before CF because at least we are getting elite defense there.

why the hell would you make a trade before giving RDLR, Webster, and Workman a shot?

HriniakPosterChild · May 19, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They need to acquire a Major league caliber CF capable of playing until Bradley gets his head out of his ass at the plate.

Remember the days when some folks here worried about starting JBJ's service clock too soon and making him a Super 2?

Those were the good old days.

Rasputin · May 19, 2014

[QUOTE="Hriniak]

Remember the days when some folks here worried about starting JBJ's service clock too soon and making him a Super 2?

Those were the good old days.
[/QUOTE]
If you're suggesting that his performance so far has made that stance look silly, you are mistaken.

threecy · May 19, 2014

One thing I find interesting is the results thus far in 2014 are sort of what many expected out of the Sox in 2013.

As bad as it may seem, it's much better than the Bobby V era.

Soxfan in Fla · May 19, 2014

They are playing very sloppy baseball. Lots of fielding errors and non errors that are missed opportunities for outs.

The other problem is situational hitting. Not moving guys over. Not driving in guys with less than 2 outs. Leaving guys on base in droves.

One last thing, stop hitting AJP in front of X.

ALiveH · May 19, 2014

Agree with Threecy. This feels like the "bridge year" we thought we'd have last year. Except winning a championship buys them a 2-year grace period in my eyes.

ivanvamp · May 19, 2014

Some possible ways to improve the team for 2014:

(1) Sign Drew, move Bogaerts to 3b. It'll only cost some money, and some development time for Middlebrooks. However, Middlebrooks is hurt now anyway, so it'll cost *less* development time than might otherwise be the case. That should improve the defense (considerably), and even the offense, seeing as though Drew, despite having a lot less power than WMB, is at this point in their respective careers, a better overall hitter.

(2) Bring up Cecchini to fill in for, and ultimately replace, Middlebrooks. I still think WMB has potential with terrific power, but he's got far too many holes in his swing right now. Cecchini *should* be able to continue his excellent on-base work in the majors.

(3) Back up the Brinks truck and make Florida an offer they can't refuse, in order to get Stanton. Only Bogaerts is off the table.

(4) Deal two of Peavy/Buchholz/Doubront. Bring up DeLaRosa and Webster. I don't know if they'll be any better, of course. This would be a giant shake-up move that has the very real potential to not work out at all.

(5) Make a smaller trade for Headley. He hasn't been good this year (82 ops+), and his 31 hr power surge in 2012 is likely a crazy outlier. But he's overall a pretty solid player that could help at 3b this year while Cecchini gets ready.

Other possibilities that may not change 2014 but which could sure shake things up:

(1) See point (4) above.

(2) Trade AJP and call up Vazquez. GREAT defense/arm, and he should at least approximate AJP's .281 OBP.

(3) Betts time in LF?

YouDownWithOBP? · May 19, 2014

Is it time to give Nava another chance? This team is dreadful against RHP and Nava is coming off a .411 OBP vrs them last year. He currently has a 275/370/435 slash line in AAA. I'm having a hard time justifying leaving him there in order to keep Carp, who's 2013 magic has completely worn off. Also, Sizemore is a 5th OF at best now, mixing in a good game with 4-5 bad ones.

ivanvamp · May 19, 2014

I wonder if they can get anything useful for Carp, because if they want to bring up Nava and Carp has to go, it's either trade him or release him.

Savin Hillbilly · May 19, 2014

ivanvamp said:
(5) Make a smaller trade for Headley. He hasn't been good this year (82 ops+), and his 31 hr power surge in 2012 is likely a crazy outlier. But he's overall a pretty solid player that could help at 3b this year while Cecchini gets ready.

That bad OPS+ is probably largely SSS artifact. He got off to a horrendous start, then got hurt. Since April 10 he has an .807 OPS, about what you'd expect. I don't think he'll come all that cheap, even for a rental. It seems likely he'll get a QO, so any trade offer from SD's POV has to at least match the value of a compensation pick.

ivanvamp · May 19, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
That bad OPS+ is probably largely SSS artifact. He got off to a horrendous start, then got hurt. Since April 10 he has an .807 OPS, about what you'd expect. I don't think he'll come all that cheap, even for a rental. It seems likely he'll get a QO, so any trade offer from SD's POV has to at least match the value of a compensation pick.

Maybe a smidge less, because if they keep him all year long and get the pick, it'll cost them the full $10+ million they owe him. If they trade him for a prospect, they will save about $7 million. That's worth something.

Mighty Joe Young · May 19, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
That bad OPS+ is probably largely SSS artifact. He got off to a horrendous start, then got hurt. Since April 10 he has an .807 OPS, about what you'd expect. I don't think he'll come all that cheap, even for a rental. It seems likely he'll get a QO, so any trade offer from SD's POV has to at least match the value of a compensation pick.

As mentioned in the Trade Rumours thread I have little or no interest in Headley .. Why should you suggest an.807 OPS is about what you would expect? He's done that once in his entire career. He's a .750ish guy on the decline

[Edit: I'm not suggesting that Headley is a bad player .. But he's going to be overpaid .. Would you trade WMB or Cecchini for four months of Chase Headley ? I sure wouldn't ]

Plympton91 · May 19, 2014

YouDownWithOBP? said:
Is it time to give Nava another chance? This team is dreadful against RHP and Nava is coming off a .411 OBP vrs them last year. He currently has a 275/370/435 slash line in AAA. I'm having a hard time justifying leaving him there in order to keep Carp, who's 2013 magic has completely worn off. Also, Sizemore is a 5th OF at best now, mixing in a good game with 4-5 bad ones.

Against righthanders, Nava is at .298 / .411 / .511 in 55 plate appearances, with 3 HR's, 8 BB, and 11 K's. His overall line is dragged down more than usual by his typical struggles against lefthanders, because he's not being platooned down there.

But, he can't play CF and Sizemore is holding his own in LF and RF, so there's not much you can do.

YouDownWithOBP? · May 19, 2014

Plympton91 said:
Against righthanders, Nava is at .298 / .411 / .511 in 55 plate appearances, with 3 HR's, 8 BB, and 11 K's. His overall line is dragged down more than usual by his typical struggles against lefthanders, because he's not being platooned down there.

But, he can't play CF and Sizemore is holding his own in LF and RF, so there's not much you can do.

Have to disagree here. 226/297/348 line this year isn't holding his own. It can and should be upgraded in some form. Carp isn't much better at 250/321/313. At least Grady is at least about average defensively. If Carp isn't hitting then he's useless and needs to be DFA'ed. Nava can be worked into the OF rotation the way Carp is, starting and PH'ing vrs RHP.

Adrian's Dome · May 19, 2014

Yup, I agree. This team needs a dose of Nava against RHP. Carp's outlived his usefulness.

Plympton91 · May 19, 2014

I agree with the idea that Carp is more limited defensively than Nava and is kind of a square peg in a round hole with the Sox roster construction, but I don't see how you can reasonably conclude anything about his offense based on 75 sporadic plate appearances. I wouldn't assume Carp is any worse than his career line of .266 / .336 / .436, and quite possibly better than that going forward given ballpark and injury adjustments. So, if you're going to DFA him, that has to be done on the basis of roster fit and not some notion that he all of a sudden forgot how to hit at age 28.

I agree with you about Sizemore too, but most here don't and I didn't want to become a lightning rod again.

Red(s)HawksFan · May 19, 2014

YouDownWithOBP? said:
Have to disagree here. 226/297/348 line this year isn't holding his own. It can and should be upgraded in some form. Carp isn't much better at 250/321/313. At least Grady is at least about average defensively. If Carp isn't hitting then he's useless and needs to be DFA'ed. Nava can be worked into the OF rotation the way Carp is, starting and PH'ing vrs RHP.

Fun with sample size...

First 10 games (3/31-4/13): 38 PA, .343/.395/.571/.966, 2 HR, 4 R, 5 K
Next 10 games (4/14-4/27): 42 PA, .081/.167/.162/.329, 0 HR, 4 R, 11 K
Next 13 games (4/28-present): 48 PA, .256/.333/.326/.659, 0 HR, 2 R, 5 K

It's possible that Sizemore himself can upgrade his own roster spot. Without that one 10 game dip (which included a 1 for 29 stretch), he's .295/.360/.435/.796. That's not to say he's actually that level of player, but it does demonstrate how much impact/influence an otherwise tiny sampling of at bats can have on the numbers this early in the year. A bad two week stretch takes his numbers from slightly above average to replacement level.

Just seems like way too early to be pressing panic buttons on anyone. And when the top three threads on the main board are about how to blow up the team via trade, how to salvage the team via trade, and trade rumor wishcasting, I'd say that means people are starting to panic. Not to mention with Bruins eliminated and the NFL draft over, the media has turned their attention to the Sox and flooded print and radio with panicky talk as well. It's bordering on ridiculous right now.

RedOctober3829 · May 19, 2014

Adrian's Dome said:
Yup, I agree. This team needs a dose of Nava against RHP. Carp's outlived his usefulness.

They need last year's Nava against RHP. This year he was brutal.

Let's face it folks: everything went the Red Sox's way last year with fringe players and marginal starters. That kind of thing doesn't happen often. Salty, Nava, Gomes, Drew all worked out to an extent. Victorino had a great bounceback year. Xander stepped in and was amazing in the playoffs. So did the pitching with Lackey bouncing back, Clay pitching great when healthy, Koji becoming a star, and most other bullpen arms finding their grooves as the season went along.

There's legitimate concerns going forward with the ballclub. We are just very lucky in that the AL East looks to be mediocre top to bottom. At this point, you have to hope that the players on the roster improve their level of play. It's frustrating, but it's all we can hope for. They aren't going to sacrifice any prospects to either come up when they aren't ready or trade them away for an marginal upgrade.

Adrian's Dome · May 19, 2014

RedOctober3829 said:
They need last year's Nava against RHP. This year he was brutal.

In a tiny sample size.

The guy can hit RHP. He's doing it right now in Pawtucket. If he's platooned properly and Farrell plays the matchups correctly with him, Sizemore, and Gomes, you could absolutely make the best of an iffy OF situation right now.

How do we break on through to the other side... of .500?

New Member

Member

Member

bubble burster

Bouncing with Anger

Member

Bouncing with Anger

Member

Member

captain obvious

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Post-darwinian

not particularly consistent

Well-Known Member

bubble burster

Member

Member

Johnny Rico

Member

Member

Member

Member

Will outlive SeanBerry

New Member

Member

Member

Will outlive SeanBerry

Will outlive SeanBerry

Member

Will outlive SeanBerry

Cosbologist

Member

Member

captain obvious

Member

captain obvious

loves the secret sauce

captain obvious

The North remembers

bubble burster

Member

Member

bubble burster

Member

Member

Member