HoF: Who is In?

Dec 6, 2017
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We've been dancing around this topic in the Edelman thread and others but I think it deserves its own thread.

Who in the magnificent run makes it (or should make it) into the Hall?

Lets start with those already in
Bill Parcells (maybe you can consider '96 a different era but I'm going to include it in this thread)
Curtis Martin
Junior Seau
Randy Moss
Ty Law

Here's my list
First ballot
Kraft
Belichick
Brady

Definitely in
Vinatieri
Gronk
Revis

Maybe in
Seymour
Scarnecchia
Gostkowski (needs to keep it going but is on track)

Honorable mentions
Slater (should be in the discussion but special teams gets no love)
Mankins
 

tims4wins

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If Rodney Harrison had (rightfully) won the XXXIX MVP, he might have gotten in.

Matt Light was an 11 year starter at LT and played in 5 Super Bowls. I mean... that's at least discussion worthy.

Mike Vrabel could have been the MVP of XXXVIII, that would have boosted his cause as well.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Welker would be in the conversation if not for the drop and the fact he never got a ring, but them's the breaks.
 
Dec 6, 2017
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Welker would be in the conversation if not for the drop and the fact he never got a ring, but them's the breaks.
That's my thought too. he also only scored 50 regular season touchdowns good for like 120th. Slot receivers may need to be treated separately but considering how hard it is for traditional receivers to get in I won't hold my breath. Also, there were a couple players whose entire pats career fell in between the 05 to 13 seasons so they never got to win. Talk about bad luck.
 
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dynomite

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Definitely in
Gronk
Good offseason topic.

I totally agree on Gronk. No brainer. From 2011 to 2017 he was the most physically dominant, game changing TE I’ve ever seen in the NFL.

The PFW guys spent a long time debating this a few weeks ago on their podcast, and they claim he’ll be limited by his stats, which surprised me. I’m on mobile so tough for me to post stats, but they were right that Gronk’s stats (apart from TDs) don’t match up with the “receivers playing TE” category of guys like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates. Gonzalez is 6th all time with 15,000 yards (!). Jason Witten had 12,400. Gates has 11,800 yards (and counting, sort of). Gronk is at only 7,800, tied with Greg Olsen.

Still, given Gronk’s legendary blocking and abilities as an in-line TE, he seems like a no-brainer to me. If Ozzie Newsome and Dave Casper are in, and if Gates is a sure-fire Hall of Famer (which seems to be the case), Gronk has to be in too.
 

lexrageorge

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How does it work for owners? Seems like they should be kind of perpetually eligible since they don't really retire.
Contributors can be nominated any time by the Seniors and Contributors committee. Jerry Jones was inducted in 2017, and is probably the closest parallel to Kraft as an owner/contributor at least in terms of timeline. So it wouldn't surprise me if Kraft got in 2020-22 timeframe.

Matt Light should at least be an honorable mention. As should Wilfork and Welker and Corey Dillon, IMHO. Ben Watson will not get in, but he's had a pretty remarkable career and it would be nice to see him as one of the 25 nominees when he's eligible.

While Vinatieri should be a lock, the anti-kicker bias remains strong, so it may take a bit. Of course, he has to retire first.

If either Belichick or Brady are denied in their first ballot, they should blow the thing up. And anyone making an argument against Gronk should be ignored.
 

Shelterdog

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Good offseason topic.

I totally agree on Gronk. No brainer. From 2011 to 2017 he was the most physically dominant, game changing TE I’ve ever seen in the NFL.

The PFW guys spent a long time debating this a few weeks ago on their podcast, and they claim he’ll be limited by his stats, which surprised me. I’m on mobile so tough for me to post stats, but they were right that Gronk’s stats (apart from TDs) don’t match up with the “receivers playing TE” category of guys like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates. Gonzalez is 6th all time with 15,000 yards (!). Jason Witten had 12,400. Gates has 11,800 yards (and counting, sort of). Gronk is at only 7,800, tied with Greg Olsen.

Still, given Gronk’s legendary blocking and abilities as an in-line TE, he seems like a no-brainer to me. If Ozzie Newsome and Dave Casper are in, and if Gates is a sure-fire Hall of Famer (which seems to be the case), Gronk has to be in too.
28th all time in receiving touchdowns, third among TEs is a pretty big stat to ignore. Plus the rings (and the dearth of other good Pats candidates).

I got mocked a little on here when halfway through his rookie year I said he was going to the hall of fame but he was so damn good; probably not a super long career but like a T. Davis or Sayers he was dominant at his peaks (and his peak was longer than those two HofFamers).
 

InstaFace

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Does Revis have the longevity, or the impact on the sport, sufficient to make a case against all the other great candidates that are nominated from year to year? His first few years in the league were DPOY-worthy, but he didn't have a lengthy career. 9 years playing more than 2 games, 6 with AV > 10. Although I loved the one year he was here, and how he's manipulated the GMs of half the league, if they were on a ballot together I'd probably vote for Seymour and Mankins over him.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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After Gronk, I think the next closest is Slater, by virtue of the fact that he has a couple years left to make a case.

Tasker probably won't get in, but if he does in the next 5 to 10 years, then Slater becomes a lock. Even if Tasker doesn't get in, Slater already has a better resume. Another all pro or another two pro bowls, and I think he'd become a pretty compelling case to make it as a special teamer. He is also a Bart Starr winner. I'm surprised he doesn't get mentioned more for a Walter Payton position but making it as a finalist would probably push him pretty close -- though for as long as DMac is on the team Slater may have trouble even being the team's finalist.
 

tims4wins

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Does Revis have the longevity, or the impact on the sport, sufficient to make a case against all the other great candidates that are nominated from year to year? His first few years in the league were DPOY-worthy, but he didn't have a lengthy career. 9 years playing more than 2 games, 6 with AV > 10. Although I loved the one year he was here, and how he's manipulated the GMs of half the league, if they were on a ballot together I'd probably vote for Seymour and Mankins over him.
Revis Island. That type of thing goes a long way.

Mankins might have had a shot if he didn't suck in XLII and XLVI. Kinda like Welker.
 

E5 Yaz

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Have I missed something? What does Curtis Martin have to do with with the Patriots "magnificent run"?
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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28th all time in receiving touchdowns, third among TEs is a pretty big stat to ignore. Plus the rings (and the dearth of other good Pats candidates).

I got mocked a little on here when halfway through his rookie year I said he was going to the hall of fame but he was so damn good; probably not a super long career but like a T. Davis or Sayers he was dominant at his peaks (and his peak was longer than those two HofFamers).
Peak is a huge part of Gronk's case. He has a Sandy Koufax kind of argument.

Nobody has ever been better at the TE position than peak Gronk and I don't think its even close. If being the GOAT at the position during your peak doesn't get you into the HoF, something is wrong.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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I think in the NFL peak is more important than Longevity because it's such a violent sport and you get a lot of stars that are at the end around age 30.

Revis was a Pro Bowler every year from 2008-2015 except for his 2012 ACL tear season, and was an all pro 4 times during it. I think he's pretty darn close to a no doubt candidate.

I also think that Gronk is a first ballot HOFer.

I think Richard Seymour will get in with 7 Pro Bowls, 3 All Pros and 3 rings.

I think Wilfork is in the Matt Light and Mankins borderline category that probably should get in.
Wilfork - 5 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 2 Rings
Light - 3 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 3 Rings
Mankins - 7 Pro Bowls, 1 All Pro, 1 Ring
 

DegenerateSoxFan

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Contributors can be nominated any time by the Seniors and Contributors committee. Jerry Jones was inducted in 2017, and is probably the closest parallel to Kraft as an owner/contributor at least in terms of timeline. So it wouldn't surprise me if Kraft got in 2020-22 timeframe.

Matt Light should at least be an honorable mention. As should Wilfork and Welker and Corey Dillon, IMHO. Ben Watson will not get in, but he's had a pretty remarkable career and it would be nice to see him as one of the 25 nominees when he's eligible.

While Vinatieri should be a lock, the anti-kicker bias remains strong, so it may take a bit. Of course, he has to retire first.

If either Belichick or Brady are denied in their first ballot, they should blow the thing up. And anyone making an argument against Gronk should be ignored.
Or better yet, forced to watch an endlessly repeating loop of his beautiful lay-out in the fourth quarter we just saw.
 

Shelterdog

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No love for Wilfork?

I think he's got a puncher's chance at the HoF.
I've said this before on here but the 2007 loss (and to a lesser extent the 2006 AFC loss which could have easily led to another superbowl) really hurt a couple of guys's chances -- in particular Light, Welker, Wilfork, Harrison and Mankins. Not a ton of rings for most of those guys (Wilfork's were from the bookends of his career when he wasn't a major factor, Mankins and Welker are both at zero if I added right), and Light wasn't quite good enough to get in with three rings, but add a 19-0 perfect season superbowl and all of the sudden they all move up into quasi legendary status.
 

Dernells Casket n Flagon

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I also think that Vinatieri is a lock even with the anti-kicker bias.

NFL all time leading scorer. 3 Time All Pro. 4 Rings.

Iconic post season success:
  • Snow bowl FG
  • Rams Game Winning Super Bowl FG
  • Panthers Game Winning Super Bowl FG.
 

lexrageorge

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I've said this before on here but the 2007 loss (and to a lesser extent the 2006 AFC loss which could have easily led to another superbowl) really hurt a couple of guys's chances -- in particular Light, Welker, Wilfork, Harrison and Mankins. Not a ton of rings for most of those guys (Wilfork's were from the bookends of his career when he wasn't a major factor, Mankins and Welker are both at zero if I added right), and Light wasn't quite good enough to get in with three rings, but add a 19-0 perfect season superbowl and all of the sudden they all move up into quasi legendary status.
There is quite a bit of irony in the bolded, as Welker had 11 catches for 103 yards and was rumored to be named MVP if the Pats held on to win that game.
 

E5 Yaz

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At what point do we separate mercenary Patriots or we can claim as "our" HoFers based primarily on their work with other teams with, you know, guys with a bulk of years of service with NE?
 

tims4wins

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At what point do we separate mercenary Patriots or we can claim as "our" HoFers based primarily on their work with other teams with, you know, guys with a bulk of years of service with NE?
This list is really Curtis Martin (who isn't even a part of this era), Junior Seau, and Revis IMO. I know Moss was only in NE for 3+ years but he set records in that first year that, while it didn't make him a HoF'er, probably made him a first ballot HoF'er.
 

BornToRun

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Good offseason topic.

I totally agree on Gronk. No brainer. From 2011 to 2017 he was the most physically dominant, game changing TE I’ve ever seen in the NFL.

The PFW guys spent a long time debating this a few weeks ago on their podcast, and they claim he’ll be limited by his stats, which surprised me. I’m on mobile so tough for me to post stats, but they were right that Gronk’s stats (apart from TDs) don’t match up with the “receivers playing TE” category of guys like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Antonio Gates. Gonzalez is 6th all time with 15,000 yards (!). Jason Witten had 12,400. Gates has 11,800 yards (and counting, sort of). Gronk is at only 7,800, tied with Greg Olsen.

Still, given Gronk’s legendary blocking and abilities as an in-line TE, he seems like a no-brainer to me. If Ozzie Newsome and Dave Casper are in, and if Gates is a sure-fire Hall of Famer (which seems to be the case), Gronk has to be in too.
I don’t see how Gronk isn’t a shoe-in. Football definitely cuts a lot more slack than other sports when it comes to longevity. Gronk may not have the counting stats that other players do but for a period of time he was an unstoppable weapon in the passing game. Couple that with his elite blocking, as you said, and it becomes a no brainer. I remember when he was discussed as a GOAT candidate in his prime.

I don’t claim to be the football expert that some other folks here are, but a hall of fame without Rob Gronkowski in it seems like a joke to me.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Moss counts as a Patriot. He singled out Dante Scarnecchia in his HOF induction speech. That's good enough for me. A Viking first, yes, but the Patriots are a very solid second.
 

TheoShmeo

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Gost might have the numbers to put him in the conversation but just like Edelman gets points for the post season, I think Gost's performance in AFCCGs and Super Bowls should be a negative factor against him. His miss in Denver caused them to have to go for a 2-point conversion, which didn't work and ended the season, and his miss in the 3-28 game forced them into two 2-point conversion tries which they thankfully made. He missed a makeable kick in this past SB which could have been a huge factor in a game that was close until it wasn't. All kickers have misses but he's had more than his fair share in big spots. I don't look at Gost and see a HOFer
 

tims4wins

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Gost might have the numbers to put him in the conversation but just like Edelman gets points for the post season, I think Gost's performance in AFCCGs and Super Bowls should be a negative factor against him. His miss in Denver caused them to have to go for a 2-point conversion, which didn't work and ended the season, and his miss in the 3-28 game forced them into two 2-point conversion tries which they thankfully made. He missed a makeable kick in this past SB which could have been a huge factor in a game that was close until it wasn't. All kickers have misses but he's had more than his fair share in big spots. I don't look at Gost and see a HOFer
Agreed, he can't be a HoF'er when he has missed kicks in 3 of the 4 SBs he has played in, and cost them dearly in that 2015 AFCCG
 

BornToRun

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A) different league B) moments matter, especially for kickers
Ghost in the playoffs: 39/44 88.6%
Adam V with the Colts in the playoffs: 30/35 85.7%

I know Gostkowski has had a few costly shanks in the postseason and doesn’t have that signature kick but I think we all remember the narrative that David Price couldn’t pitch in the playoffs, and then he did. I can also think of a few clutch field goals, regular and postseason, that he has made. Is Ghost missing in January/February the last few years a sign of choking or just a fluky occurrence that’s going to happen when you’re in the playoffs every year?
 

tims4wins

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Ghost in the playoffs: 39/44 88.6%
Adam V with the Colts in the playoffs: 30/35 85.7%

I know Gostkowski has had a few costly shanks in the postseason and doesn’t have that signature kick but I think we all remember the narrative that David Price couldn’t pitch in the playoffs, and then he did. I can also think of a few clutch field goals, regular and postseason, that he has made. Is Ghost missing in January/February the last few years a sign of choking or just a fluky occurrence that’s going to happen when you’re in the playoffs every year?
Vinatieri has had signature moments. A lot of them. Gost hasn't, plain and simple. Maybe he is one of the top kickers in NFL history, I dunno. I do know that BB was ready to go for the first down on Sunday night, and he also passed up another < 50 yard FG attempt, and he passed up on a < 50 yard FG attempt in XLII after a shanked kickoff... if BB the GOAT doesn't have 100% confidence in the guy, it is hard for me to back him.

Edit: Robbie Gould has a better career % and similar number of made FG - should he be in? I mean, he shouldn't be penalized for being on crappy teams, right?
 

BornToRun

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Vinatieri has had signature moments. A lot of them. Gost hasn't, plain and simple. Maybe he is one of the top kickers in NFL history, I dunno. I do know that BB was ready to go for the first down on Sunday night, and he also passed up another < 50 yard FG attempt, and he passed up on a < 50 yard FG attempt in XLII after a shanked kickoff... if BB the GOAT doesn't have 100% confidence in the guy, it is hard for me to back him.

Edit: Robbie Gould has a better career % and similar number of made FG - should he be in? I mean, he shouldn't be penalized for being on crappy teams, right?
I’m not talking about Gould. And again, just because someone hasn’t done something doesn’t mean they can’t. We’ve seen the dude make big kicks before, so assuming that he’s just some guy who can’t do it when it matters most isn’t exactly fair.

Signature moments matter, of course, but I don’t think it’s right to denigrate someone’s accomplishments because they haven’t had them because those moments are often very dependent on outside factors that the player in question can’t control.

And as for B.B. not trusting him, Gostkowski has been our kicker since 2006. He’s been lining up for field goal attempts in 11 separate postseason runs (missed playoffs in 2008, he was hurt in 2010). If he is so unreliable, why the hell has Bill kept him around for so long?
 

lexrageorge

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A) different league B) moments matter, especially for kickers
How is it in a different league? The rules are the same for both kickers, with Adam having had a slight advantage due to spending half his career in a dome.

I get that the signature kick will matter to HoF voters, especially since most of them are clueless when it comes to judging kickers. But there is a solid statistical argument for Gostkowski, despite some high profile misses.
 

tims4wins

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How is it in a different league? The rules are the same for both kickers, with Adam having had a slight advantage due to spending half his career in a dome.

I get that the signature kick will matter to HoF voters, especially since most of them are clueless when it comes to judging kickers. But there is a solid statistical argument for Gostkowski, despite some high profile misses.
AV kicked on natural grass from 1996-2005 with the Pats. Gost kicked on field turf his whole career basically.

Also, look at the all time top FG% - it is dominated by current kickers. Kickers have improved a shit ton and it is much easier to make FGs now. Remember when they pushed back the PAT in 2015?

Edit: it's not all that different from QB play being much, much better now, and the passer ratings rankings being dominated by current players

Edit 2: the top 5, and 9 of the top 11 all time kickers in FG% are current kickers. Make of that what you will.

Edit 3: there isn't a single kicker in the top 60 all time FG% who retired prior to 2000
 
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tims4wins

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I’m not talking about Gould. And again, just because someone hasn’t done something doesn’t mean they can’t. We’ve seen the dude make big kicks before, so assuming that he’s just some guy who can’t do it when it matters most isn’t exactly fair.

Signature moments matter, of course, but I don’t think it’s right to denigrate someone’s accomplishments because they haven’t had them because those moments are often very dependent on outside factors that the player in question can’t control.

And as for B.B. not trusting him, Gostkowski has been our kicker since 2006. He’s been lining up for field goal attempts in 11 separate postseason runs (missed playoffs in 2008, he was hurt in 2010). If he is so unreliable, why the hell has Bill kept him around for so long?
But if you are talking about Gost, how can you not talk about Gould? Both outdoor kickers, came into the league within a year of each other, both in the top 3 all time %, within 10 made FG of each other. They are DIRECTLY comparable.
 
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mauf

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I don’t see how Gronk isn’t a shoe-in. Football definitely cuts a lot more slack than other sports when it comes to longevity. Gronk may not have the counting stats that other players do but for a period of time he was an unstoppable weapon in the passing game. Couple that with his elite blocking, as you said, and it becomes a no brainer. I remember when he was discussed as a GOAT candidate in his prime.

I don’t claim to be the football expert that some other folks here are, but a hall of fame without Rob Gronkowski in it seems like a joke to me.
Everything you say here is correct. I’m not as big a Pats’ homer as the majority of folks here, but I would be absolutely shocked if Gronk was not a 1st-ballot selection.

For similar reasons, I think Revis is a lock too, though I wouldn’t be shocked if he had to wait a year or two. Revis isn’t in the GOAT discussion at his position like Gronk is.

Vinatieri is in too. Only question is whether he’s a first-ballot selection.

Defensive tackles get no love from HOF voters. Only three who began their careers after 1970 are in the Hall of Fame — Randy White, Dan Hampton, and Cortez Kennedy. I don’t see Seymour or Wilfork joining that club. (If you want to push the start date back to 1965, you add Joe Greene and Alan Page to the discussion, but I don’t think that changes the analysis.)
 

BuellMiller

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Have I missed something? What does Curtis Martin have to do with with the Patriots "magnificent run"?
I was going to point out that we ended up getting Tebucky Jones as compensation for him, who helped in 36, and then eventually turned into Corey Dillon. But then I realized it was actually Robert Edwards that was technically the Jets pick.
 

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Vinatieri has had signature moments. A lot of them. Gost hasn't, plain and simple. Maybe he is one of the top kickers in NFL history, I dunno. I do know that BB was ready to go for the first down on Sunday night, and he also passed up another < 50 yard FG attempt, and he passed up on a < 50 yard FG attempt in XLII after a shanked kickoff... if BB the GOAT doesn't have 100% confidence in the guy, it is hard for me to back him.

Edit: Robbie Gould has a better career % and similar number of made FG - should he be in? I mean, he shouldn't be penalized for being on crappy teams, right?
Gost missed a FG in the divisional round following the 16-0 season, and BB thereafter made the very curious decision to go for it on 4th and 13 and pass up a makeable 48 yard kick in Super Bowl against the MFGs. I always thought that had that been AV, Belichick would have let his kicker kick.

One instance, early on, when the HC did not show confidence in his kicker does not define anyone. And if BB did not have overall confidence in Gost, he would not have lasted this long. And his numbers are what they are. But we've seen BB hesitate with or pass on this guy kicking in big spots several times in the post season, and we've seen some big misses in SBs and AFCCGs.

I'll fall off my chair if this guy is a first ballot HOFer and will be surprised if he ever makes it.
 

BigJimEd

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Gost has a long way to go. Vinatieri is in due to his big moments AND longevity.
 

Seels

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Gost isn't close.
2014 he wasn't asked to kick a field goal
2015 he famously missed
2016 he missed and they avoided the rest of the game
2017 he missed a pa and field goal
2018 he missed a field goal

It's not that he's come up short, he's come up short repeatedly. Nevermind that Belichick outright avoided him in 42.
 

tims4wins

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Gost isn't close.
2014 he wasn't asked to kick a field goal
2015 he famously missed
2016 he missed and they avoided the rest of the game
2017 he missed a pa and field goal
2018 he missed a field goal

It's not that he's come up short, he's come up short repeatedly. Nevermind that Belichick outright avoided him in 42.
Also missed a PAT vs. the Steelers in 2016, and missed a FG vs. the Titans last year
 

NortheasternPJ

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I'll fall off my chair if this guy is a first ballot HOFer and will be surprised if he ever makes it.
I'm not even sure he'll be on the roster next year with his cap hit. I'm not saying he should go, but they're not franchising him.

I'd put Gost's chances of getting into the HOF the same as mine.
 

amRadio

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I've been lurking here for years and this is the conversation that finally broke me. I couldn't read this and not have anybody mention Chandler Jones. He may not be a HOFer as we speak, but he is at 77 sacks at 28 years old. If he plays 3-4 more seasons, he seems like a mortal lock for 100 sacks. Add in 2 All Pros and 2 Pro Bowls, if he makes one more pro-bowl and has one or two more double digit sack seasons, I think there will be a real HOF chance there.
 

Marciano490

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I've been lurking here for years and this is the conversation that finally broke me. I couldn't read this and not have anybody mention Chandler Jones. He may not be a HOFer as we speak, but he is at 77 sacks at 28 years old. If he plays 3-4 more seasons, he seems like a mortal lock for 100 sacks. Add in 2 All Pros and 2 Pro Bowls, if he makes one more pro-bowl and has one or two more double digit sack seasons, I think there will be a real HOF chance there.
He had 36 sacks, one Super Bowl win and one Pro Bowl appearance as a Pat. If he makes the HoF, it’ll largely be due to his time with AZ and elsewhere.
 

Average Game James

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Current run- Brady, Gronk, and that’s it. They’ve had two non-ST all pro players (Revis, Gilmore). Gost has been AP twice, but kickers rarely make the hall and he’s not even the best of his generation.

Older Pats - I think Seymour eventually makes it. 3 first team AP and one of the two best players on a defense that carried them to multiple titles.

More generally, I think the Pats get a lose number of guys in than other dynasties in large part because this run has been driven by Brady and BB and the constant ability to adapt vs. consistently having transcendent talents on the roster.
 

AB in DC

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I think Wilfork makes it in due to the Butt Fumble. No, I'm not kidding. You want to talk about iconic plays? He might be a borderline case on stats alone, but get the HoF committee in the room laughing about the Butt Fumble together and I think he gets the votes.