Henry Owens so far

The Gray Eagle

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Owens has had 9 starts in the majors so far.
The small sample numbers are okay, but nothing great:
51 IP, 4.41 ERA, 4.61 FIP.
7.24 K/9, 3.35 BB/9.
1.33 WHIP, .284 BABIP.
 
But in other ways, he's shown some real promise. In his last 2 starts, he's pitched into the 8th inning (3 times out of 9 starts he's done that.) In 5 of his 9 starts, he's allowed 0 or 1 run. 
 
From Speier's 108 Stitches email yesterday:
 
"Henry Owens elicited 21 swings and misses on Tuesday...
 
Owens absorbed a loss on Tuesday. He considered that the defining aspect of his 7 1/3 inning performance, despite the enormous total of whiffs that he produced. The Rays spent much of the game in a state of total confusion about whether it was swinging at a fastball or changeup...
 
Still, what Owens showed on Tuesday, what he’s shown for much of his first exposure to the big leagues, offers a hint that he might indeed be part of a number of wins to come. That is chiefly thanks to the 21 swings and misses that he produced with just 90 pitches over his strikingly efficient outing.
 
First, some context for the raw whiffs: Owens’s 21 swings-and-misses were the most produced by any Red Sox pitcher this year, exceeding the 19 Clay Buchholz had.
That would be an impressive accomplishment in its own right, but Tuesday isn’t an isolated incident.
 
Owens had another start — against the Mariners — where he got 18 swings and misses, the third most by any Sox pitcher this year. He has achieved double-digit swing-and-miss totals in six of his last seven starts. Indeed, at an early point in his career, Owens is leaving hitters with an empty feeling in a fashion that ranks with some of the best pitchers in the game.
 
Owens has allowed a contact percentage — meaning the number of swings that resulted in contact — of 73.2 percent. So 26.8 percent of all swings has resulted in a miss. Here, according to Baseball-Reference.com, is a list of the lowest contact rates — and, hence, the highest swing-and-miss rates — of American League starting pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings this year:
■ Chris Sale, 67.3 percent (footnote: this is ridiculous)
■ Chris Archer, 70.0 percent
■ Cole Hamels, 71.5 percent
■ Carlos Carrasco, 71.8 percent
■ Corey Kluber, 73.1 percent
■ Owens, 73.2 percent
 
 
In Owens’s first pro season of 2012 with Single A Greenville, he would get strikeouts in bunches only to encounter a single-inning hiccup that marred his ERA. But the fact that he could mix his fastball and changeup to baffle opponents suggested the foundation of a very good prospect. That notion took shape as Owens dominated in High A (2.92 ERA, .180 opponents’ average), Double A (2.44 ERA, .195 opponents’ average), and Triple A (.202 average, 3.03 ERA), mostly leaning on the fastball-changeup combination while developing his curveball and slider significantly.
 
Still, Owens is a different animal than the other pitchers who have elicited swings and misses with the volume that he has. Whereas most of them work regularly in the low- to mid-90s with their fastballs, Owens’s velocity has hovered mostly around 89-90 mph. That velocity gives him less margin for error than those other pitchers, which in turn may have contributed to Owens’s vulnerability and his 4.41 ERA."
 
 
Tim Britton on ProJo has a good article about his most recent start and his MLB progress so far.
 

djhb20

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The FIP (and ERA) are driven up substantially by the 7 HRs allowed in 51 innings.  He allowed 7 in 122 innings in Pawtucket and 10 in 159 innings across two levels last year, so it's very different from what he'd done in the minors.  Now, I'm not sure we should expect him to allow half a home run every 9 innings like he has in the minors the last two years, but I don't think we should expect it to be two and half times higher either. 
 
If he can keep the ball in the park, a K rate of 18.8% and a walk rate of 8.7% is a good place to start a career from.  You'd like to see that K rate go up a bit (he was generally much higher in the low minors, but it sank to about 20% in Pawtucket this year), but that walk rate is something he can survive with.  The walk rates he put up in the minors were a little too high for comfort.  Probably there's a trade-off there between the lower BB rate and the lower K rate.  That's what the test will be - can he make the necessary adjustments and growth to get the K rate up a little more while maintaining the improved control he's shown. 
 
And he's shown flashes of it in a few starts, so there's real reason for optimism.  There's a real part of me that would like to see both ERod and Owens in the rotation next year from the beginning, but I think we'll likely see Owens start in AAA again, and be the first one up.
 

nvalvo

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djhb20 said:
 
And he's shown flashes of it in a few starts, so there's real reason for optimism.  There's a real part of me that would like to see both ERod and Owens in the rotation next year from the beginning, but I think we'll likely see Owens start in AAA again, and be the first one up.
 
I love Henry, but I think this is the right move. Obviously, you always need SP depth, and having real prospects in the 6/7 SP role (Owens and Johnson?) could be really good. 
 
But also, his slider is a new pitch. I would like to see him throw ten starts or so in AAA with the mission of refining that as an out pitch against lefties.
 
Right now, he has a really pronounced reverse split. We would expect that, to some degree, from a pitcher whose best pitch is a changeup, and the split is much more pronounced (in a small sample) in the majors than it was in the minors. But he needs work on his approach against LHH, and that should happen in AAA. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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djhb20 said:
The FIP (and ERA) are driven up substantially by the 7 HRs allowed in 51 innings.  He allowed 7 in 122 innings in Pawtucket and 10 in 159 innings across two levels last year, so it's very different from what he'd done in the minors.  Now, I'm not sure we should expect him to allow half a home run every 9 innings like he has in the minors the last two years, but I don't think we should expect it to be two and half times higher either.
 
Somewhere in between is probably right.  But its worth noting that Owens hasn't been victimized by a fluky number of flyballs flying over fences (9% HR/FB).  He has just given up a fuckton of fly balls (51%, 6th highest in MLB among pitchers with over 50 innings this year).  Luck has probably played a part.  But he also has had trouble working down in the zone and is facing hitters much more adept at punishing mistakes by hitting them hard in the air.  Its not a split issue, because both leftist and righties are hitting over 50% FBs against him.  But its definitely an issue that he needs to figure out because its almost impossible to succeed in the majors with a fly ball percentage above the mid 40s (unless you're Max Scherzer).
 

djhb20

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Another excellent start from Owens (and also against the O's). 5 whiffs against only 1 walk in 28 batters. And a much better at keeping the ball out of the air.

For what it's worth (very little), he now has a lower ERA than Rodriguez this season.
 

iayork

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djhb20 said:
Another excellent start from Owens (and also against the O's). 5 whiffs against only 1 walk in 28 batters. And a much better at keeping the ball out of the air.

For what it's worth (very little), he now has a lower ERA than Rodriguez this season.
 
Just excellent location with his changeup today.  Painted the edges of the zone beautifully.  
 

alwyn96

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[tablegrid='']Name SwStr% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact%
Clayton Kershaw 15.80% 51.80% 78.00% 68.90%
Max Scherzer 15.10% 58.20% 79.40% 72.40%
Chris Sale 14.50% 58.30% 78.40% 70.70%
Francisco Liriano 14.30% 50.60% 82.90% 67.70%
Carlos Carrasco 14.00% 58.00% 84.90% 72.80%
Cole Hamels 13.10% 57.50% 84.30% 74.00%
Jose Fernandez 13.00% 55.90% 84.00% 73.80%
Corey Kluber 13.00% 56.00% 85.80% 74.50%
Chris Archer 12.90% 51.40% 83.70% 72.30%
Madison Bumgarner 12.60% 55.90% 86.50% 74.80%
Jacob deGrom 12.50% 62.00% 84.50% 75.90%
James Shields 12.40% 56.00% 84.50% 72.60%
Tyson Ross 12.20% 49.10% 85.80% 71.30%
Noah Syndergaard 12.10% 58.10% 85.60% 74.50%
Michael Pineda 12.10% 58.90% 85.00% 76.10%
Henry Owens 12.10% 63.20% 81.60% 74.60%
Zack Greinke 12.00% 60.90% 84.60% 74.80%
David Price 11.90% 66.80% 81.80% 76.80%
Masahiro Tanaka 11.80% 62.20% 86.50% 76.00%
[/tablegrid]
 
EDIT: Well crap, I don't know what the hell I'm doing with this formatting. Sorry. Anyway, Owens is in some pretty good company with his swinging strike rate thus far.
 

The Gray Eagle

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To update the original post: Now in each of his last 3 starts, he's pitched into the 8th inning (and 4 times out of 10 starts he's done that.) In 6 of his 10 starts, he's allowed 0 or 1 run. 
 
After today, his ERA at Fenway park dropped from 6.35 down to 4.99. (All 7 of the homers he has allowed have come at Fenway.) His September ERA drops from 4.91 to 3.64.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Alwyn, that rate stat listing you provided should be rather reassuring to those folks who doubted Owens could ever approximate Cole Hamels numbers.

Owens hasn't done it over a whole season of 30+ GS of course, but the potential is clearly there. And, he's still got six years of club control plus three options remaining.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
 
But its definitely an issue that he needs to figure out because its almost impossible to succeed as a starting pitcher in the majors with a fly ball percentage above the mid 40s (unless you're Max Scherzer).
 
FTFY. If you look at guys who have pitched a substantial number of career innings with a >45% FB rate, most of them are relievers--some of them very good ones, including Koji, Clippard, Betancourt, Dotel, Marmol, and Soriano. (But there's one other thing all those guys have in common: very high K/9 rates, mostly >9 and often >10.)
 
Guys who have succeeded as starters with that kind of FB rate are fewer; Weaver is an obvious one, but there's also Chris Young. Young is an intriguing comp for Owens, aside from the obvious tall-lefty thing; he succeeded (before he got hurt, and since) despite high FB rates, just-OK HR/FB rates, and good-but-not-great K and BB rates. And he did it by consistently suppressing BABIP and (as a corollary) posting excellent strand rates. As a result, he has what I'm guessing has to be one of the all-time top 10 best differentials between ERA and xFIP ever put up by a guy with 1000 or more innings (4.87 xFIP/3.72 ERA). 
 
Owens so far, in an admittedly tiny sample, has shown similar tendencies. His 2015 xFIP is 4.90 and his ERA is 3.84, and the component pieces of that track Young's career record remarkably well. Which is good news, because it took Young a couple of years (and a relocation to an outstanding FB pitcher's park) to reach the point of being as good as Owens has been so far. So Young might be more of a floor comp than anything for Owens, but (injury history aside) that's not a bad floor.
 

mt8thsw9th

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For what it's worth, when he first came up I figured he was a lefty. Like Larry Andersen, some people just sound like they're lefties.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Speier notes today in 108 Stitches that Owens got 14 more swings and misses yesterday: "the 14 whiffs marking the fourth straight start and seventh in his last eight in which he’s gotten at least 10 swings and misses."
 

Sprowl

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The Gray Eagle said:
Speier notes today in 108 Stitches that Owens got 14 more swings and misses yesterday: "the 14 whiffs marking the fourth straight start and seventh in his last eight in which he’s gotten at least 10 swings and misses."
 
His changeup seems to have visible flutter as it approaches the plate. The velocity differential certainly gives batters fits: even when they are looking offspeed, they can't seem to get the timing right. It's a pity we can't transplant Edro's fastball into Owens or Owens' changeup into Edro.
 

absintheofmalaise

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Good article on Owens and his change by Ian York.
 
 
 
The changeup may be the most impressive weapon Owens has in his arsenal. He throws a lot of them (27.3% of his pitches to right-handed batters and 17.6% to lefties this season), and threw even more Sunday against the Orioles (37.5% to righties, 25% to lefties).
 

Plympton91

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You are what the results say you are. And the results say in the competition for 5th starter. Will he be Abe Alvarez or Tommy Millone?
 

Plympton91

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
You are what you were at age 22.
Everyone else he's competing with for a rotation slot is basically also expected to improve by aging 5 months between now and spring training too. He's not as good as Rodriguez, Buchholz or Miley, He's not getting Porcello's job even if he is a little better. So, he's in competition with Kelly, who had a much better second half, and with Johnson, who was much better at Pawtucket, for the 5th starter spot.

He was throwing 87 mph last night. Unless he develops pristine command a la Mark Buerle, he's going to get lit up regularly, regardless of how good his change up is. And very few pitchers develop that kind of command. Tommy Milone and Abe Alvarez were 22 once too.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Tommy Milone pitched his entire age 22 season with hi-A Potomac.

Abe Alvarez pitched in MLB at age 22 for 2 1/3 innings of relief with a 2.571 whip.

Other than those admittedly minor details, you're right. Good comp. They all do throw with the left hand.
 

iayork

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Plympton91 said:
He was throwing 87 mph last night.
 
There's a difference between being skeptical, and just making stuff up.
 
I've marked off "87" for your reading pleasure.
 

kieckeredinthehead

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"You are what your results say you are" is possibly the single stupidest thing I've read about baseball since somebody suggested trading for Adam Dunn as an outfielder. The fact that he can't even correctly state what those results actually were... this string of posts would get lesser posters banned.
 

The X Man Cometh

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While I don't think writing off Owens solely on velocity is fair, from a roster construction standpoint it is fair to wonder where he fits in 2016.

In Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley, Wright, Kelly, Johnson if healthy, and Owens, we have seven candidates for three rotation slots. If/when Sox add an arm, does Owens go to Pawtucket?
 

chrisfont9

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The X Man Cometh said:
In Rodriguez, Porcello, Miley, Wright, Kelly, Johnson if healthy, and Owens, we have seven candidates for three rotation slots. If/when Sox add an arm, does Owens go to Pawtucket?
By default he has to.
* incoming pitcher (in your hypothetical)
* Buchholz: lilkely returning
* EdRod: clearly ahead of Owens, not going anywhere absent blockbuster
* Porcello: untradeable (and might bounce back)
* Miley: tradeable, probably the first to go
* Kelly: Back to being tradeable and maybe someone teams get intrigued about. Sox won't be in a hurry to deal him
* Wright: I can't readily determine if he has options. I doubt they'll commit to him over Owens unless they think Owens really needs to work on stuff before becoming a fixture in Boston.
* Johnson: tbd
 
It's just easier, not to mention probably more prudent and maybe even necessary, to put Owens in AAA over moving several of the guys on this list.
 

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Yeah, I would be shocked if Owens didn't start the season in Pawtucket, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Eduardo did too.
 

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Darnell's Son said:
Yeah, I would be shocked if Owens didn't start the season in Pawtucket, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Eduardo did too.
Count me among the shocked if Eduardo starts in Pawtucket.
 

NDame616

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Yeah, I would be shocked if Owens didn't start the season in Pawtucket, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if Eduardo did too.
Starting Edro in AAA would make as much sense as starting Mookie in AAA.

Edro has proven throughout 2/3rds of the season he's been our 3rd or 4th best pitcher. Unless the Sox sign Cueto and Price and trade for 2 other aces, there's no shot he starts the season in AAA.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Trading Miley does make sense although I'm sure the Sox FO likes to know they can ink him in for 200+ innings and a 4.5 ERA.  Of course lots of other teams would like that also.  
 
Price/Cueto?
Clay
Porcello
Eddie
Kelly
to start the season as the starting 5 with Wright as the long man and first to jump in for an injury.  Johnson (hopefully not under the knife and rehabbing all of '16) and Owens starting in AAA.  Pretty good deep depth there even without Miley.
 
As far as Owens being what he is for the next 6 years based on his small sample thus far.... It was cool that Pedroia had that one okay season as a backup middle infielder for the Cincinnati Reds before he was out of baseball in 2010.
 

Eddie Jurak

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As guys with options, Owens and Johnson (if healthy) have some real value as AAA depth. That's not to say Owens has no shot to make the team or that he won't/shouldn't be traded. Just that there are far worse problems than having a pitcher of his caliber in Pawtucket.
 

AB in DC

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I think Friday night basically confirmed that he's not quite there yet.  He finishes the year with 4.57/4.28/5.02 which is not so great even for a fifth starter.  By comparison, Wade Miley was 4.46/3.82/4.09 and Kelly, despite his lousy start to the season, ends up 4.82/4.18/4.08.
 
If it weren't for all the injuries earlier in the year, he probably would have been in Pawtucket all year, anyway.  Suppose he were just an ordinary September call-up this year and put up the rate stats above.  Would you be penciling him into the rotation for next year?
 

iayork

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AB in DC said:
I think Friday night basically confirmed that he's not quite there yet.  He finishes the year with 4.57/4.28/5.02 which is not so great even for a fifth starter.  By comparison, Wade Miley was 4.46/3.82/4.09 and Kelly, despite his lousy start to the season, ends up 4.82/4.18/4.08.
 
If it weren't for all the injuries earlier in the year, he probably would have been in Pawtucket all year, anyway.  Suppose he were just an ordinary September call-up this year and put up the rate stats above.  Would you be penciling him into the rotation for next year?
 
Owens just turned 23 in July.  He has one excellent pitch, and his others clearly need work.  His major-league debut has been encouraging, because most 22/23-year old pitchers would be completely overmatched in the majors, but he hasn't convinced anyone that he's completely ready for the bigs yet.  Of all the pitchers we've seen this year, I think Owens is the most likely to start 2016 in Pawtucket.  He should certainly be with the major-league team in spring training to compete for a spot, but unless he shows that he's bumped up at least one of his other pitches, it's not fair to him to take away his chance to improve. 
 

Plympton91

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iayork said:
 
Owens just turned 23 in July.  He has one excellent pitch, and his others clearly need work.  His major-league debut has been encouraging, because most 22/23-year old pitchers would be completely overmatched in the majors, but he hasn't convinced anyone that he's completely ready for the bigs yet.  Of all the pitchers we've seen this year, I think Owens is the most likely to start 2016 in Pawtucket.  He should certainly be with the major-league team in spring training to compete for a spot, but unless he shows that he's bumped up at least one of his other pitches, it's not fair to him to take away his chance to improve. 
Which is the long way of saying exactly what I said initiatially. A lot of scouts see him as a bottom of the rotation guy, despite having advanced to the majors at a slightly below average age for that jump. After seeing him over the past 2 months, a not insignificant sample in my mind, and based on his lack of velocity and command of his fastball along with an inadequate third pitch, I'd side with those scouts.

And if I'm not mistaken, a lot of the scouts that were more bullish has based that assessment on the presumed ability of Owens to learn to better leverage his frame to find more velocity. While 23 isn't to d to learn to command a fastball like an elite pitcher or refine a third pitch, it is awfully late to still expect any increase in velocity.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Either define what "bottom of the rotation" means according to how you use it here, or cite sources for these scouts.

Otherwise, you're as "mistaken" about that assertion as your recollection that "Owens was throwing 87" was proved to be.

GJGE, in advance.
 

Rasputin

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Plimpy is the poster boy for not understanding the difference between prospect rankings of pitchers and the kind that goes on among fans in a major league team.
 
The prospect pundit definition of a #1 is incredibly narrow to the point where there's less than ten of them in baseball. The real world has a much broader definition. He conflates the prospect pundit definition of a #3, which is a pretty damn good pitcher, with the colloquial definition which is much worse.
 
It's ridiculous. 
 

ALiveH

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IMVHO, it is way too early to close the book at all on Owens' ultimate potential.  He's a 6'7" lanky lefty, so there is still a chance he improves his mechanics to the point where he adds command / control / velocity to his fastball, and/or improve the curve / slider.  Not saying he'll be a Randy Johnson  - that would be a black swan.  Just that tall lanky lefties tend to take a couple extra years to master their mechanics.
 

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ALiveH said:
IMVHO, it is way too early to close the book at all on Owens' ultimate potential.  He's a 6'7" lanky lefty, so there is still a chance he improves his mechanics to the point where he adds command / control / velocity to his fastball, and/or improve the curve / slider.  Not saying he'll be a Randy Johnson  - that would be a black swan.  Just that tall lanky lefties tend to take a couple extra years to master their mechanics.
Not saying that this isn't true, but is it just a tautology, based primarily on Randy Johnson? Has there been some study on the age/performance curve of pitchers based on handedness and height? How tall is a tall lefty? How lanky is lanky? Does it have anything to do with being left handed, would a tall lanky RHP not have the same issues?
 
Not picking on this post, just genuinely curious, because I've heard that thrown around a lot since the Sox drafted Owens, Ball, etc., and everyone always just seems to reference Johnson, even the baseball writers.
 

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pokey_reese said:
Not saying that this isn't true, but is it just a tautology, based primarily on Randy Johnson? Has there been some study on the age/performance curve of pitchers based on handedness and height? How tall is a tall lefty? How lanky is lanky? Does it have anything to do with being left handed, would a tall lanky RHP not have the same issues?
 
Not picking on this post, just genuinely curious, because I've heard that thrown around a lot since the Sox drafted Owens, Ball, etc., and everyone always just seems to reference Johnson, even the baseball writers.
One could also reference Andrew Miller, whose velocity rose 3 mph and command blossomed when converted to reliever at the age of 27. It probably helped that he simplified his mechanics, lowered his release point and discarded his changeup, which was never a good 3rd pitch. absintheofmalaise had a nice description for the new mechanics: "fewer moving parts".
 
In general, yes, tall lanky pitchers of both hands take a little longer to gain co-ordination and command. It may be that LHP take longer than RHP, but that's where the age-performance curves might come in handy.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Sprowl said:
In general, yes, tall lanky pitchers of both hands take a little longer to gain co-ordination and command. It may be that LHP take longer than RHP, but that's where the age-performance curves might come in handy.
 
I wonder if it might also have to do with the fact that a majority of batters are opposite-side hitters vs. LHP. If command is more crucial vs. opposite-side hitters, LHPs whose command is still a work in progress might struggle a bit more than RHPs at a similar stage of development, creating a surface appearance that they are taking longer to develop. No idea if this is true, but it would be an interesting thing to study. (Obviously the fact that teams routinely tweak their lineups for platoon advantage complicates this, but unless we have reason to believe that they tweak them more, or more effectively, vs. RHPs, it wouldn't necessarily blow the idea out of the water.)
 

BoredViewer

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Owens comes off as pretty thoughtful in his interviews.  I don't think any of what he needs to improve upon is a mystery to him, it'll just be a question of whether or not he can do it.
 

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
So a #3 is a "bottom of the rotation starter" now.

Good to know.
In all fairness that would have made him the Sox ace during the first half of the season. I'm curious how Owens will turn out. At 22 you still have time to raise the bar. Right now he's projected as a #3 but if the secondary stuff improves then maybe a #2. But if he was traded tomorrow in a deal to bring in a proven top of the rotation guy I don't think anyone would lose sleep over it.
 

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Tyrone Biggums said:
In all fairness that would have made him the Sox ace during the first half of the season. I'm curious how Owens will turn out. At 22 you still have time to raise the bar. Right now he's projected as a #3 but if the secondary stuff improves then maybe a #2. But if he was traded tomorrow in a deal to bring in a proven top of the rotation guy I don't think anyone would lose sleep over it.
 
I probably wouldn't lose sleep, but I think it would be a terribly foolish thing to do and would certainly rant about it here.
 
Owens' three years at the minimum and three options remaining, makes him a tremendously valuable pitcher to the Boston Red Sox. Not least because of the presence of Clay Buchholz and his undeniable history of suffering season-decimating injury. 
 
No prospect is a sure thing, but a "proven top of the rotation guy" isn't a sure thing either. They get hurt and start to suck, too.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Buzzkill Pauley said:
 
I probably wouldn't lose sleep, but I think it would be a terribly foolish thing to do and would certainly rant about it here.
 
Owens' three years at the minimum and three options remaining, makes him a tremendously valuable pitcher to the Boston Red Sox. Not least because of the presence of Clay Buchholz and his undeniable history of suffering season-decimating injury. 
 
No prospect is a sure thing, but a "proven top of the rotation guy" isn't a sure thing either. They get hurt and start to suck, too.
Depends who it's for. If it's for someone who can come in and give you 180 innings and is a proven top of the rotation guy then Henry Owens should not be the guy who holds up said deal. I'm sure no one is saying trade this guy for a Mark Buehrle type but if a top tier guy is on the market than you need to pull the trigger.

Ultimately you do need to have the major league team show more success than the minor league squads that are supporting it. If you can keep a great balance than so be it. This team is a couple of tweaks from being in the mix again.
 

Shane

New Member
Nov 26, 2014
110
Tyrone Biggums said:
In all fairness that would have made him the Sox ace during the first half of the season. I'm curious how Owens will turn out. At 22 you still have time to raise the bar. Right now he's projected as a #3 but if the secondary stuff improves then maybe a #2. But if he was traded tomorrow in a deal to bring in a proven top of the rotation guy I don't think anyone would lose sleep over it.
I've always been against the idea of calling pitchers a #1, #2, #3, etc. It seems like it's a pretty general term. For example, Greinke is the #2 on the Dodgers, but he might win the Cy Young. The Rockies #1 might be the #4 or #5 on a lot of other teams. Just my opinion though.

I agree, I liked Owens, but I wouldn't be devastated if he was traded, especially because they have Eduardo, and Espinoza, even though he's a few years away. If Owens is what it takes to trade for an ace, I'm all for it.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 30, 2006
10,569
Tyrone Biggums said:
Depends who it's for. If it's for someone who can come in and give you 180 innings and is a proven top of the rotation guy then Henry Owens should not be the guy who holds up said deal. I'm sure no one is saying trade this guy for a Mark Buehrle type but if a top tier guy is on the market than you need to pull the trigger.

Ultimately you do need to have the major league team show more success than the minor league squads that are supporting it. If you can keep a great balance than so be it. This team is a couple of tweaks from being in the mix again.
 
That's all well and good to say, but with the FA pitching market being what it is this offseason, why does it make sense to trade Owens for "someone who can come in and give you 180 innings and is a proven top of the rotation guy" at all? 
 
Which of those guys projects to significantly better than Greinke/Price/Cueto/Zimmermann/Samardjia + Owens' next 6-7 years + whichever other prospects would be needed to seal the deal?
 
It makes no sense to me at all, so if you can explain it, please do.
 
Owens' value to the MLB team can't be downplayed, not for as long as Clay Buchholz's Annual Injury is penciled into the starting rotation. Brian Johnson's elbow required a two-month shutdown to end last season; Workman is coming back from TJS himself and was replacement-level as a starter before that; anyone else associated with the organization, and not cover-your-eyes scary, is likely either out of options (Hill, Wright, Escobar) or pitched for Greenville last season and still years away (Kopech, Espinoza).
 
Am I missing something?
 
I mean, aside from the fact that the major league team did show more success (BOS .481 wpct) than the minor league squads that are supporting it (PAW .410, POR .373, SAL .475)
 

Tyrone Biggums

nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion
SoSH Member
Aug 15, 2006
6,424
Buzzkill Pauley said:
 
That's all well and good to say, but with the FA pitching market being what it is this offseason, why does it make sense to trade Owens for "someone who can come in and give you 180 innings and is a proven top of the rotation guy" at all? 
 
Which of those guys projects to significantly better than Greinke/Price/Cueto/Zimmermann/Samardjia + Owens' next 6-7 years + whichever other prospects would be needed to seal the deal?
 
It makes no sense to me at all, so if you can explain it, please do.
 
Owens' value to the MLB team can't be downplayed, not for as long as Clay Buchholz's Annual Injury is penciled into the starting rotation. Brian Johnson's elbow required a two-month shutdown to end last season; Workman is coming back from TJS himself and was replacement-level as a starter before that; anyone else associated with the organization, and not cover-your-eyes scary, is likely either out of options (Hill, Wright, Escobar) or pitched for Greenville last season and still years away (Kopech, Espinoza).
 
Am I missing something?
 
I mean, aside from the fact that the major league team did show more success (BOS .481 wpct) than the minor league squads that are supporting it (PAW .410, POR .373, SAL .475)
Never said that it made sense. I just said if someone comes available like a Sale or Gray or a Carassco or Ross and the team doesn't want to spend the money on Price or others then it's a road that needs to be explored.

Greinke is a lock to go back to the Dodgers. Zimmermann might not be a fit in Boston. Cueto has an arm issue. And 90% of the posters on the board have assured the other 10% that Price is an absolute pipe dream.

Think of it like this. If the team misses out on all of those targets would you be opposed to dealing Owens? I like him a lot better than Johnson but hell I would have traded him for Hamels. That's just me. I know it's not the popular opinion but the Rangers were 5 games under when they made the trade and they're currently up 1-0 on Toronto. Eventually you do need to augment the young talent on the team with veterans who know how to win. They need a healthy mix and that's what made 2013 special. That and a ton of luck.