Have the A's found a new market inefficiency?

[Section30]

Baseball Prospectus has posted an article about a possible new market inefficiency that Oakland may have identified. They seem to be building a team around fly-ball hitters in a response to the proliferation of ground ball pitchers.
 
linked via Deadspin where I found the article.
 
http://regressing.deadspin.com/a-decade-after-moneyball-have-the-as-found-a-new-mark-1489963694?partner=yahoo-smb
 
 
 
 

 

[Rasputin]

Thanks, that was an excellent read.
 
I have to wonder how much of the efficacy of the strategy is built on the fact that offensive output is significantly down from several years ago. 
 
I am intriguethed.

 

[DJnVa]

Well, I will say this--the best way to not be able to exploit that inefficiency is to have someone write about it as you do it.
 
EDIT: Which obviously isn't the A's fault.

 

[ragnarok725]

It also seems like a strategy that isn't terribly well suited to their home stadium. All the foul area and space in the outfield... wouldn't you expect lower return on that approach than, for instance, the Sox would? If it really is intentional, they must really believe to be doing it in the Coliseum. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

It also seems like a strategy that isn't terribly well suited to their home stadium. All the foul area and space in the outfield... wouldn't you expect lower return on that approach than, for instance, the Sox would? If it really is intentional, they must really believe to be doing it in the Coliseum. 

 
It's all about the net difference between your approach and the other teams.  While the Coliseum suppresses HR's, if you hit more FB you will hit more HR.  If the other teams hits more GB, they will hit fewer HR (all else being equal) at the Coliseum.
 
In other words, they seem to believe in a lower run environment, HR's are more valuable.  In the steroid era with the juiced ball, BB's and OBP were the market inefficiency because everyone was hitting HR's, even guys not known for being HR hitters, and higher OBP's made those HR's more productive, and in some cases unnecessary.
 
With K rates rising, BABIP dropping slightly due to the shift and defense,  and OBP plummeting it becomes that much harder to string together singles and BB to generate runs, especially in a pitchers park like the Coliseum. 

 

[Devizier]

This makes total sense to me, but I have some further thoughts on the piece.
 
A more mundane explanation of the A's taking advantage of a market inefficiency is that they are patient during the offseason. They signed guys like Jonny Gomes, Josh Willingham, Conor Jackson, and Bartolo Colon in late January. In other words, they probably highlighted a group of guys that they liked, waited for the market to settle and picked up the remainder on very cheap contracts. Suffice to say, Gomes bolstered his value during his time with the A's. But ultimately it looks like he is the same player he has been with the Reds all along, and that 2011/2012 are the highs and lows that can be found in partial season sample sizes.
 
Anyways, the Red Sox signed Gomes in November, and paid five times the AAV for Gomes and tacked on an extra season for good measure. They obviously wanted him and paid a premium to ensure that he would sign.
 
I also wonder if Brandon Inge isn't a bad example of a market inefficiency. He was pretty awful offensively with the A's, and his performance at the plate was not an outlier relative to his previous seasons.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Great article.  
 
Over the past two seasons, it really seemed as if the A's will valuing lower than average OBP but higher than average SLG more highly than the rest of the league (perhaps they thought that other teams might shy away from sluggers given concerns about PEDs).  This piece seems to confirm that they, indeed, went after some form of power.  Beane et al certainly aren't afraid to take on misfit toys if it gives them the chance to compete.