Has Mookie peaked?

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
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Mar 16, 2005
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The gran facenda
By ESPN's WAR calculation (they use b-ref's WAR formula, I think), Betts is still ahead of Bogaerts, despite what seems like Bogaerts having a much better season at a premier position so far.

Betts: 13 hr, .268/.388/.458/.847, 3.3 bWAR
Bogaerts: 17 hr, .295/.385/.535/.920, 2.7 bWAR

But then Fangraphs has it different:

Betts: 2.6 fWAR
Bogaerts: 3.7 fWAR

Which seems to be more accurate. How does b-ref calculate WAR different than Fangraphs? I'm sure that's been asked here before but it seems like those are quite disparate numbers.
Fangraphs has a good explanation on their site. And yes, it's been discussed here many times.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
By ESPN's WAR calculation (they use b-ref's WAR formula, I think), Betts is still ahead of Bogaerts, despite what seems like Bogaerts having a much better season at a premier position so far.

Betts: 13 hr, .268/.388/.458/.847, 3.3 bWAR
Bogaerts: 17 hr, .295/.385/.535/.920, 2.7 bWAR

But then Fangraphs has it different:

Betts: 2.6 fWAR
Bogaerts: 3.7 fWAR

Which seems to be more accurate. How does b-ref calculate WAR different than Fangraphs? I'm sure that's been asked here before but it seems like those are quite disparate numbers.
They use different defensive metrics. BBref uses DRS, while FG uses UZR. Both metrics love Mookie (UZR perhaps a shade less), but DRS loathes Xander with the heat of a thousand suns, while UZR thinks he's fringe-average. There are other differences, but that's probably the big one in this case.
 

nvalvo

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They use different defensive metrics. BBref uses DRS, while FG uses UZR. Both metrics love Mookie (UZR perhaps a shade less), but DRS loathes Xander with the heat of a thousand suns, while UZR thinks he's fringe-average. There are other differences, but that's probably the big one in this case.
Adding to this: Bogaerts is routinely one of the players with the largest discrepancy between the systems on his defensive performance and thus overall value.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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Adding to this: Bogaerts is routinely one of the players with the largest discrepancy between the systems on his defensive performance and thus overall value.
Isn't this yet again, reason to seriously question the legitimacy of advanced defensive statistics? Most of the systems seem far too subjectively based still and continue to look like they're making statistics for the sake of making statistics when the system itself prohibits the application of a statistic based approach. I'll continue to look at DRS, UZR, (there's a few others that I can't recall) with a pile of skepticism. I get that even a pretty intuitive statistic like OPS is still context driven and should be looked at with some level of skepticism..... but the defensive ones are almost comical
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
18,064
The wrong side of the bridge....
Isn't this yet again, reason to seriously question the legitimacy of advanced defensive statistics? Most of the systems seem far too subjectively based still and continue to look like they're making statistics for the sake of making statistics when the system itself prohibits the application of a statistic based approach. I'll continue to look at DRS, UZR, (there's a few others that I can't recall) with a pile of skepticism. I get that even a pretty intuitive statistic like OPS is still context driven and should be looked at with some level of skepticism..... but the defensive ones are almost comical
What's fascinating is that the gap, in Xander's case, continues to grow. It was a modest 3.9 runs in 2015, then 7.6 in 2016 and 10.3 the following year. Last year it hit a thoroughly absurd 20.1 runs -- two wins -- and I thought surely that's got to be the limit; it'll narrow in 2019. But no; if Xander plays 1310 defensive innings this year -- his average over the past four seasons -- and the metrics continue at their current clip, the gap will hit 22 runs this year.
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
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Isn't this yet again, reason to seriously question the legitimacy of advanced defensive statistics?
There's a lot of reason to question them, including the 3 year sample size needed, and the fact that once you collect that 3 year sample size, it's obsolete because the player is now older and probably worse.
 

brandonchristensen

mad photochops
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Feb 4, 2012
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3 for 5 tonight with a double and a triple. 3 for 4 yesterday with a double. Maybe he’s seeing the ball a bit better. Went 3 for 10 in the Blue Jays series.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
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3 for 5 tonight with a double and a triple. 3 for 4 yesterday with a double. Maybe he’s seeing the ball a bit better. Went 3 for 10 in the Blue Jays series.
Yep, last 5 games: 9-19 (.474), 3 doubles, 1 triple, 10 runs scored, 3 rbi, 5 walks, 1 strikeout, and bumped his batting average up from .261 to .271. Nice little stretch for Mookie.
 

SoFloSoxFan

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Jul 14, 2005
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Yep, last 5 games: 9-19 (.474), 3 doubles, 1 triple, 10 runs scored, 3 rbi, 5 walks, 1 strikeout, and bumped his batting average up from .261 to .271. Nice little stretch for Mookie.
So what I am hearing is its time to trade him when his value is high?
 

Pitt the Elder

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Sep 7, 2013
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You can really see Mookie's quality of contact really picking up over this past week. Batted balls per Baseball Savant:

DatePitcherEV (MPH)LA (DEG)Dist (ft)xBAOutcome
7/2/2019RHP84.4212840.480Single
7/2/2019RHP102.612470.470Single
7/2/2019RHP84.4213490.110Lineout
7/3/2019RHP94182970.420Double
7/3/2019RHP70.3-18990.030Fielders Choice
7/4/2019RHP103.961550.660Groundout
7/4/2019LHP70.9161710.630Lineout
7/4/2019RHP100.7203290.520Lineout
7/4/2019RHP101.681540.730Lineout
7/5/2019LHP100.0162610.510Double
7/5/2019LHP103.331810.580Single
7/5/2019LHP93.8-61170.300Forceout
7/5/2019RHP100.8173420.470Sac Fly
7/5/2019RHP101.4173190.470Single
7/6/2019RHP104.7244220.940Triple
7/6/2019RHP107.3133130.820Double
7/6/2019RHP101.981180.730Lineout
7/6/2019LHP66.5-4040.100Groundout
7/6/2019RHP91.7-11950.330Single

Lots of batted balls over 100 mph, especially the last two games. Also, in his 5 at bats against LHP during this time, Mookie has hit the ball over 100 MPH twice and once more over 90, so that's also encouraging.
 

The Needler

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Dec 7, 2016
1,502
Season line now .273/.393/.469, and he's at .292/.414/.495 since April 19. That ghastly first few weeks has taken a while to get over.
Come on. His OPS was at .922 on May 2. Let’s not pretend he’s just overcoming a bad start.

From May 11 to June 15, however, he was .227/.349/.383.
 

Hawk68

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Feb 29, 2008
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Yaz had a .329 to .254 in '70 - '71. He changed his stance a few times and mostly righted the ship. The .254 was in his age 31 year, so maybe he was starting the decline anyway.
As I recall the rise and decline of Yaz, his drop from the peak was driven by wrist injury that dramatically cut his power production. As late as May 29, 1971 his OPS = 1.002. From there steady decline through end of 1971. More of the same reduced production in 1972, excepting June and Sept. After that, he regained reduced but good productivity, with steady age induced dealing thereafter.
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
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Oct 1, 2015
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Come on. His OPS was at .922 on May 2. Let’s not pretend he’s just overcoming a bad start.

From May 11 to June 15, however, he was .227/.349/.383.
Betts' Season in Four Segments So Far:

Mar 28-Apr 17: 19 g, 82 PA, 3 hr, 7 rbi, .200/.305/.371/.676, .208 babip
Apr 18-May 2: 13 g, 60 PA, 3 hr, 9 rbi, .449/.533/.735/1.268, .442 babip
May 3-June 15: 38 g, 183 PA, 5 hr, 15 rbi, .227/.366/.387/.753, .246 babip
June 16-July 6: 17 g, 88 PA, 2 hr, 9 rbi, .319/.432/.556/.987, .362 babip (not counting today's game, obviously)

Yes, I cherry-picked the cut off points.
 

The Needler

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Dec 7, 2016
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Betts' Season in Four Segments So Far:

Mar 28-Apr 17: 19 g, 82 PA, 3 hr, 7 rbi, .200/.305/.371/.676, .208 babip
Apr 18-May 2: 13 g, 60 PA, 3 hr, 9 rbi, .449/.533/.735/1.268, .442 babip
May 3-June 15: 38 g, 183 PA, 5 hr, 15 rbi, .227/.366/.387/.753, .246 babip
June 16-July 6: 17 g, 88 PA, 2 hr, 9 rbi, .319/.432/.556/.987, .362 babip (not counting today's game, obviously)

Yes, I cherry-picked the cut off points.
Yes, you did. I think you may be agreeing that he has been inconsistent. I can't imagine you're attempting to prove anything with those selections, but if we're playing fun with cherry-picking, I would submit the hot and cold has been even more frequent - closer to 10 to 15-game chunks:

Mar 28-Apr 5: 9 g, 43 PA, 2 HR, .289/.372/.526/.898, .310 babip
Apr 6-Apr 17: 10 g, 39 PA, 1 HR, .094/.231/.188/.418, .083 babip
Apr 19-May 2: 13 g, 60 PA, 3 HR, .449/.553/.735/1.268, /442 babip
May 3-May 14: 9 g, 46 PA, 1 HR, .200/.391/.343/.734, .240 babip
May 15-May 24: 9 g, 43 PA, 1 HR, .351/.442/.541/.982, .387 babip
May 25-June 8 (1): 13 g, 61 PA, 2 HR, .154/.279/.288/.567, .140 babip
June 8 (2)-June 24: 15 g, 76 PA, 3 HR, .274/.408/.548/.956, .304 babip
June 25-July 4: 7 g, 34 PA, 0 HR, .222/.382/.259/.642, .286 babip
July 5-July 6: 2 g, 11 PA, 0 HR, .667/.636/1.111/1.747, .600 babip