Gordon Hayward 2020: I'm standing here in pieces and you're having delusions of grandeur!
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I think it's more likely if he opted out it would be to resign here rather than leave, but I'm pretty sure we all would have thought the same thing about Al a year ago, he probably did too until he saw an unexpected team back up the brinks truck for him. If he opts out with the idea of staying with the Cs for somewhere between 4-100 and 4-120 and then someone comes in with a full max offer it might be hard to resist, which would be worst case scenario for the Cs.
It is pretty amazing that almost everything that needed to happen for the Celtics to be successful this season has happened.
Still wicked early, long way to go, etc. But we all kind of knew what would have to happen if the Celts were going to be a legit contender in the East. And, thus far, it's all been happening.
- Hayward returning to pre-injury form (check)
- Tatum and/or Jaylen making serious incremental improvements (check, check)
- Cobbling together effectiveness out of the five spot (check)
- Getting contributions from the rookie class (check)
- Kemba assimilating smoothly (check)
The problem with Bamba is that you have to trade a useful player to get him, and he might never be useful.
That's my fear. And the best case scenario for Boston is if it's Golden State that wants to max him out to make one last run with the Curry/Klay/Dray team. Because it ould have to be a sign & trade and at least they'll have something to trade to make it happen (even if it has to be a three way deal as I can't imagine Boston having any interest in De'Angelo Russell).
The most important thing that needed to happen was the departure of Mr. Chemistry.
Ha, fair enough
We've watched him close enough over the last 3 seasons to see the leap this year. It's only been a few games, but his explosion to the hoop is ridiculous, it's a different gear/body control/ball manipulation from even the end of last season.
I still need to understand some of these trade ideas that people are concocting for Hayward.
Setting aside the problems with trading Hayward spelled out upthread, is there any concrete reporting that Indiana would make Myles Turner available?
I have seen nothing other than a few fan sourced blog posts as well as some speculative pieces. I get the attraction to Turner - he is very good all the way around - but there is no indication from Indiana that he is even on the block. I know some guys like Zach Lowe keep beating this drum but its more a function of what he thinks makes sense versus something that is an actual possibility.
If we are going to wish for tail-risk scenarios with star players, I would argue that we should hope for a LeBron injury coupled with a Davis souring on LA. A Davis from the Lakers trade to the Celtics is close to impossible too but if we are just making things up, lets shoot for a trade that really moves the needle. I am not sure that Turner for Hayward does that for this team (peak Hayward was a more valuable player than Turner's best season to date), even setting aside the very low likelihood of a trade happening in the first place.
Setting aside the problems with trading Hayward spelled out upthread, is there any concrete reporting that Indiana would make Myles Turner available?
I have seen nothing other than a few fan sourced blog posts as well as some speculative pieces. I get the attraction to Turner - he is very good all the way around - but there is no indication from Indiana that he is even on the block. I know some guys like Zach Lowe keep beating this drum but its more a function of what he thinks makes sense versus something that is an actual possibility.
If we are going to wish for tail-risk scenarios with star players, I would argue that we should hope for a LeBron injury coupled with a Davis souring on LA. A Davis from the Lakers trade to the Celtics is close to impossible too but if we are just making things up, lets shoot for a trade that really moves the needle. I am not sure that Turner for Hayward does that for this team (peak Hayward was a more valuable player than Turner's best season to date), even setting aside the very low likelihood of a trade happening in the first place.
I'm surprised people haven't turned their attention to KAT. Not hard to envision a scenario where he wants out.
KAT would be tempting. Does he have the DNA to be a longer version of Horford? We don't need an alpha scorer with Walker, Tatum and Brown, but a big who can facilitate, hit the open 3 and captain the D would be a very good fit. I haven't watched him enough to know if he's got the chops to be that kind of defender.
I agree with this POV. We lose a best of seven against Philly right now without question. After a few months of this team playing together, I'm not so sure. Especially if Philly doesn't add shooting.
If for some inexplicable reason the Twolves decided to trade him you're not going to still have both Brown and Tatum, he's 23 years old and playing at an mvp level right now under team control for 4 more years, they aren't trading him for Hayward and draft picks. He's really really good at basically everything on a basketball court.
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What scottyno says - the cost of KAT is going to be enormous and Hayward plus a bunch of stuff (including one of the remaining valuable picks) is highly unlikely to get it done. Furthermore, even if they lose to the Warriors tonight, the Wolves are off to a decent start and they clearly love Towns, even if Embiid, Butler and some media members are riding the "KAT is soft" narrative hard.
Basically whatever they were willing to give up for Davis, it probably takes more for Towns, he's younger, a better shooter, no injury history, no chance he can bolt anytime soon, no klutch drama. MAYBE he's ainge's new unicorn that could be available in 2-3 years if things go badly, but there's no chance he's available anytime soon.
Or . . . .
JT, JB, and KW are really really talented basketball players and
GH had a full offseason to work (plus he's really talented).
All four of these guys are skilled basketball players. Not sure it's that surprising that they can shoot, pass, and defend.
Absolutely agree, but it’s fair to say that a lot of these were question marks before the season.
Hell, people were seriously saying Jaylen Brown = Trevor Ariza (in value, not style) less than a month ago.
The Horford/Hayward situations really don't feel analogous to me, except inasmuch as an opt-out is involved.
- Hayward will be about 3 years younger at decision time. If he has a good year, no one is going to be super-worried about paying him through age 34 or so. Horford was already at that age, and already being load-managed.
- If multiple teams are offering Hayward big deals, it's a better idea to sign him. It shows there's demand on the market, and he likely remains moveable. Letting assets walk for nothing is a bad idea.
- Most importantly: the Celtics would have been held hostage by the Nets in a S&T if they wanted to keep Horford. There are no such issues this time around.
That's fine, I agree with all of the above
Al and Gordon are analogous if you say this:
We (myself included) spent all last season thinking Al would stay on an "extend and discount" contract to lock in more years. He didn't, he signed for a lot more than any of us projected
Yeah, I meant it in the sense of “the Celtics are likely paying him either way, and he might take a discount to help the luxury tax situation.”. That’s not unprecedented for guys with $200M+ career earnings.
With Horford, the discount was the only way they were ever going to keep him, given age.
The reason Hayward trades get discussed is that he and Kemba are older players and they are the only two big salaries that could fetch a star. Kemba is a shiny new toy, but I expect the Kemba trade discussions to heat up next year.
I like this team as presently constituted-- even Semi Ojeleye and Vincent Poirier have their uses from time to time. I wouldn't make any trades at all unless the trade is totally one-sided in the Celtics favor.
I like this team as presently constituted-- even Semi Ojeleye and Vincent Poirier have their uses from time to time. I wouldn't make any trades at all unless the trade is totally one-sided in the Celtics favor.
It'salmost as if guys who are 22/23 can improve at their craft if they work on it. What a crazy idea!
When JB/JT are 27-ish, I think the odds of both being All-Stars are better than the odds of neither of them being All-Stars (barring injury).
Any discussion of Hayward on the roster should start with acknowledging that he’s the best player on the team.
Except that KAT is not as good as AD and the Lakers paid a huge price.
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The guy coming up sooner than KAT is Giannis. If Milwaukee gets bounced convincingly by Philly or Boston, they have a capped-out roster with no path forward, and have shown Giannis they're not willing to spend to win by unloading Brogdon in his prime. If he doesn't sign the supermax this summer, they basically have to move him. Any offer there would probably have to be based around Tatum+MEM+salary though, not Hayward.
That Eric Bledsoe contract is a head scratcher, but that is probably more due to my lack of understanding of how the NBA works.
Is the discount your talking about help the Celtics sign additional players to fill out the roster?
OR
does the discount simply save Wyc, Steve, partners $$$ from luxury taxes?
by passing on Brogdon did you feel Milwaukee owners simply wanted to save themselves money (while adding a few picks)?
Yes, I think it was primarily a financial decision, not a basketball one, and significantly lowered their championship equity at a time when the league is more wide-open than it's been in awhile.
I think they let him walk because they didn't want to pay two guys at the same position, which is stupid for a couple of reasons. That's a neon sign if you're Giannis, and apparently he saw it.
Yeah, stupid stupid plan. I was actually psyched at the moves that they made, from a Celtics POV.
I agree that a large part of the decision was financial (though Brogdon's injury history also did come into play I suspect) but from what I can tell, the financial part is huge.
Here's a look at MIL's salary cap without Brogdon: https://www.brewhoop.com/2019/7/12/20691591/two-weeks-in-milwaukee-bucks-offseason-update-nba-free-agency-salary-cap.
It looks like if MIL signed Brogdon, MIL would have been $16M over the cap, which would have resulted in $32M of luxury tax payments (according to this) plus it would have started the repeater clock. While it's not fair to Brogdon, one could say that signing Brogdon to the $22M contract cost MIL $54M. Plus, they would have been over the cap next season and that is even before Giannis's supermax kicked in.
Obviously, one can debate the wisdom of re-upping Bledsoe, Middleton, and Lopez prior to the Brogdon resigning but re-signing Brogdon obviously would have cost hundreds of millions of dollars when all is said and done (I can't find the exact number).
Agree it’s a big hit, but that luxury tax payment is pretty standard if you want to be one of the title favorites. If you want to be a very good team in the East and have an outside shot, that’s fine. Just don’t be surprised when the best player you’ve had since Kareem decides he wants to play for a franchise that’s willing to spend what it takes to win.
To clarify, I am not saying that Giannis is out in Milwaukee. I’m saying that if the team doesn’t look like contenders next year, and Brogdon looks good, that’s the point where historically guys start to look elsewhere.
Just looking at the 3 best players they resigned makes little sense. Brogdon makes $20 million this year. The Bucks could’ve not signed George Hill and Robin Lopez and dumped Ilyasova to get to that dollar amount too.
Brogdon was their second best FA and third best player and they decided to let him walk away to spend money on depth instead. There is basically never a situation in the NBA where letting superior talent walk for depth is the right decision.
I agree with those who suggest that opt out and re-sign with the Celtics might be Hayward's plan. Big contracts on the Celtics:
2019-20: Hayward, Walker
2020-21: Hayward (if he does not opt out), Walker, Brown*(not quite max but close)
2021-22: Walker, Tatum, Brown*
2022-23: Walker, Tatum, Brown*
2023-24: Tatum, Brown*
2024-25: Tatum
2025-26: Tatum (if they give him 5 max years)
Does a re-signed Hayward fit into that salary structure at max? At something less than max?
2019-20: Hayward, Walker
2020-21: Hayward (if he does not opt out), Walker, Brown*(not quite max but close)
2021-22: Walker, Tatum, Brown*
2022-23: Walker, Tatum, Brown*
2023-24: Tatum, Brown*
2024-25: Tatum
2025-26: Tatum (if they give him 5 max years)
Does a re-signed Hayward fit into that salary structure at max? At something less than max?
It was a weird play. Not much contact. Hopefully it's one of those small bones that heal quickly?
absolutely fucking sucks. Really sucks for the guy and the team and the fans.
It just sucks. It's the suckiest suck suck that ever sucked.
It just sucks. It's the suckiest suck suck that ever sucked.
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