Glass Half Full nuggets for 2024 Sox

[Cassvt2023]

I'm sure most of us here can agree that this offseason has been extremely underwhelming, the messaging for ownership has been horrible, and the overall snail slow pace of free agent signings has been painful to non-existent, I'd like to focus on some positive developments to look forward to with this team as the exhibition games are about to get under way. Let's try to keep it on the positive side.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'll start: Jarren Duran finally unlocked some of his potential as a game changer on offense and improved CF defense until he hurt his toe in an all advised jump at the fence to end his season. Watching him turn singles into doubles time and again was fun and I hope it continues. The fact that he was upfront about his struggles with mental health and confidence around veteran teammates in the past can only bode well for him going forward. He seems to be much more relaxed and comfortable in his skin. I hope he stays here, he is a fun player to watch and speed is more important in the game than it has been in decades.

 

[simplicio]

This article on the new pitching org has me pumped: https://theathletic.com/5291591/2024/02/22/red-sox-andrew-bailey-run-prevention-unit?source=user-shared-article

First pitch strikes!

 

[Cassvt2023]

This article on the new pitching org has me pumped: https://theathletic.com/5291591/2024/02/22/red-sox-andrew-bailey-run-prevention-unit?source=user-shared-article

First pitch strikes!

Yes @simplicio the track records for Breslow in Chicage, Bailey in SF and Boddy with Driveline Baseball is certainly a step in the right direction for a team that desperately needs to draft and develop quality pitching since it seems the days of paying flawed free agents 25 mil a year for 6+ yrs are a thing of the past.

 

[JCizzle]

Personally, this season is all about seeing the type of players that Casas and Bello develop into.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think Grissom is going to be really good

 

[WilhelmScream]

I'm always optimistic in Spring Training because so many good things could happen. The three major things that have me excited are:

1. The aformentioned Run Prevention Unit
2. Young studs on the team (Casas, Bello, I want to include Grissom so bad), maybe on the team (Rafaela), and on the way (Teel, Mayer, Anthony, whomever we draft at 12, the one pitcher in the org who takes a leap due to the RPU)
3. Maybe the Cora Swan Song + team being angry at ownership means they're going to play with a huge chip on their shoulder. Story's already pointed out that the media has written them off in an interview with TC. Boston teams do better and are much more fun to watch when they have an edge.

but also:
- Story bounce back year? He's taking on a leadership role and that's been known to boost some dudes in the past (please forget about Kiké's resume)
- Is first half Yoshida the real Yoshida? Second year in the states and first without a massive pre-season tournament
- Is second half Pivetta the real Pivetta? Merloni seems to think so!
- Can Duran's speed make up for his limitations? He's so fast!
- Is Abreu just a better version of Verdugo? Wouldn't that be great?
- Is Rafaela a human highlight film? MORE. DIVING. CATCHES.
- Whitlock? Kutter?! Houck??? Basically the entire staff + RPU = ???

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

1. The Schreiber/Sandlin trade looks like a steal
2. O'Neil was a great "buy low"
3. Along with the 29 other teams, as yet they haven't panicked and played the Boras Game while taking on an albatross contract

 

[LogansDad]

I think Grissom is going to be really good

I agree. The way Anthopoulos fawned over him, has me pumped about landing him.

I am excited to see Tyler O'Neill as well, and hope he is healthy. I think Fenway can be a great place for him to resurrect his career, in a contract year.

I also expect one or more of the pitching prospects to find the fast track this year. The coaching staff and infrastructure they are putting in place has me really excited for the future of the team's pitching.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think something that doesn't get enough attention is how much of a stud Tristan Casas was at the plate last year in basically the last 4 and a half months of the season. In his rookie year. Add to that how invested he seemed to be in the offseason on helping the guys younger than him and his inevitable star turn in the Netflix doc, this guy is due for a monster season.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I'm always optimistic in Spring Training because so many good things could happen. The three major things that have me excited are:

1. The aformentioned Run Prevention Unit
2. Young studs on the team (Casas, Bello, I want to include Grissom so bad), maybe on the team (Rafaela), and on the way (Teel, Mayer, Anthony, whomever we draft at 12, the one pitcher in the org who takes a leap due to the RPU)
3. Maybe the Cora Swan Song + team being angry at ownership means they're going to play with a huge chip on their shoulder. Story's already pointed out that the media has written them off in an interview with TC. Boston teams do better and are much more fun to watch when they have an edge.

but also:
- Story bounce back year? He's taking on a leadership role and that's been known to boost some dudes in the past (please forget about Kiké's resume)
- Is first half Yoshida the real Yoshida? Second year in the states and first without a massive pre-season tournament
- Is second half Pivetta the real Pivetta? Merloni seems to think so!
- Can Duran's speed make up for his limitations? He's so fast!
- Is Abreu just a better version of Verdugo? Wouldn't that be great?
- Is Rafaela a human highlight film? MORE. DIVING. CATCHES.
- Whitlock? Kutter?! Houck??? Basically the entire staff + RPU = ???

Agree on all of these. They may only be a .500-ish team, but hope is not lost. I'll keep watching, unless and until thing go terribly wrong (like last September, which was just too painful to watch).

 

[Fishy1]

I think we already have a thread for this? Potential Bright Spots...

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think we already have a thread for this? Potential Bright Spots...

Feel free to combine/integrate them then. there are many threads on here you could say the same for.

 

[Skiponzo]

I think something that doesn't get enough attention is how much of a stud Tristan Casas was at the plate last year in basically the last 4 and a half months of the season. In his rookie year. Add to that how invested he seemed to be in the offseason on helping the guys younger than him and his inevitable star turn in the Netflix doc, this guy is due for a monster season.

This is what I’m most excited about seeing again. Casas’ ABs were must see TV the last half of the year.

I’m also excited to see what kind of improvement Wink might have made over the offseason again.

 

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

I'm excited we have a glass.

Casas, Bello to keep ascending. Maybe Grissom and/or Rafaela for guys to start ascend.

Hoping to see Houck, Whitlock and I guess Pivetta carve out definitive roles in the bullpen or rotation.

Breslow committing to a definite buy-in or sell-off at the deadline.

 

[pk1627]

Looking forward to see how Bello, Crawford, Houck and Winck perform this year. On the other side of the ball, Casas, Duran, Grissom and Yoshida.

 

[pearccol]

It is ALL exciting.

I love baseball and I love the Red Sox.

Have I joined in on the “front office should have signed a couple more players?” Of course I have.

But now it’s spring training and everything seems possible again.

I am imagining every young player breaking through…(Casas as an MVP type player, Bello threatening to be a Pedro-esque ace, Rafaela looks like the second-coming of Mookie, Abreu becomes the ultimate “ professional hitter, Grissom makes second base his for years to come, Crawford, Whitlock and Houck all establish themselves as stud pitchers)

Devers will have a monster year. Story bounces back and emerges as the infield leader. Giolitto returns to the top of his game and Yoshida shows that last year’s first half is the true him.

I just cant be negative when I see the photos and videos of everybody in camp.

I become a naive kid again.

I love this game and I can’t wait for Opening Day.

 

[joe dokes]

They *seem* to be paying additional attention to their biggest weaknesses -- pitching and defense.

 

[8slim]

Excited to watch Cassas turn into a middle-of-the-order monster.

Hopeful that Bello can toss 175 innings at a sub-3.60 ERA and become an ace.

Optimistic that Story will regain his Rockies form and finally start producing offensively in a meaningful way.

Rooting for the team to overperform projections and be snugly in the 3rd Wild Card spot come Labor Day weekend.

 

[YTF]

Looking forward to most of what has already been written as well as following the progress of the triplets and possible late season glimpse at any of them.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Optimistic that Story will regain his Rockies form and finally start producing offensively in a meaningful way.

I’m a big Story fan, so I’m almost irrationally excited to watch a healthy version.

 

[loneredseat]

Super excited to see what we have in Grissom. And I think we're going to get a good year out of Whitlock.

 

[The Gray Eagle]

If we are looking at optimistic scenarios, then we need about half the team to just repeat what they did last year, while the other half just plays to about what they are projected to do.

Team repeat, hitters:
Devers 271/351/500 33 HR
Casas 263/367/490 24 HR
Duran 295/346/483
Abreu 316/388/474

Team ZIPS projection, hitters:
Grissom 284/352/419 10 HR
Yoshida 295/356/457 16 HR
O'Neill 268/344/482 18 HR
Story 246/314/441 15 HR
Rafaela 261/300/426 15 HR
Wong 249/296/416 11 HR

That would be a hell of an offense, if it actually broke down that way. The projections for Yoshida, Devers and Casas are actually pretty similar to what they did last year, so they could fit on either team.

Team repeat, pitchers:
Bello 157 IP, 4.24
Pivetta 142 IP, 4.04
Crawford 129 IP, 4.04

Jansen 44 IP, 3.63
Martin 51 IP, 1.05
Bernardino 50 IP, 3.20
Winckowski 84 IP, 2.88
Campbell 28 IP, 2.83

Team ZIPS projection, pitchers:
Giolito 161 IP, 4.51
Houck 103 IP, 4.62

Whitlock 89 IP, 3.73

Interesting that for pitchers, we need more of them to repeat what they did last year rather than hit their projections.
But the big exception is that we do need Giolito to throw a lot of innings while being not too bad. That would be big.

The pitching will not have great numbers, no matter what. But they could be decent enough, when factoring Fenway's park effect, if it breaks our way.

It's not asking much to expect that a player either repeats what they did last year, OR that that they perform about as well as they are projected to by an impartial stats-based projection.

It's weird though that most of the roster needs to do only one or the other. Like if Giolito, O'Neill and Story are as bad/unavailable as they were last year, that would pretty much sink the team, but if they hit their ZIPS projections we should be pretty good.

But a lot of the bullpen is the opposite, projected to be worse than last year-- ZIPS has Jansen, Martin, Winckowski and Bernadino falling off quite a bit-- we need them to just be as good as they were last year.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I know it's news that is two days old now, but how about the fact that Devers minced no words when asked what he thought of the team's off season (non)moves? He said the same thing basically that he did when asked at last season's trade deadline. The fact that he is this comfortable taking on that role as the teams longest tenured member and highest paid payer is a good sign to me. I expect big things.

 

[Auger34]

Excited to watch Grissom.

Casas, Brayan Bello. I think Devers has another level to him.

I think Giolito becomes a good starter.

Who the “Run Prevention” Chat Group can improve and mold

 

[Max Power]

With interest in the team at 30+ year lows, there are plenty of good seats available for Opening Day!