John Farrell - Pitching Guru and Leader of Men:
2011 TOR - 4.29 FIP (11th in AL), 4.70 RA/G (11th in AL)
2012 TOR - 4.66 FIP (13th in AL), 4.84 RA/G (11th in AL)
2013 BOS - 3.84 FIP ( 7th in AL), 4.05 RA/G ( 6th in AL)
2014 BOS - 3.93 FIP (10th in AL), 4.41 RA/G (11th in AL)
2015 BOS - 4.17 FIP (13th in AL), 4.65 RA/G (14th in AL)
FIP: one middle quintile results, two fourth quintile results, two bottom quintile results.
RA/G: one second quintile result, three fourth quintile results, one bottom quintile result.
2016 BOS - 4.09 FIP ( 8th in AL), 4.69 RA/G (12th in AL)
A spade needs to be called a spade. Regardless of the pitching coach, and regardless of the pitchers themselves, Farrell's teams have consistently coaxed average results from superior pitching talent, and poor results from average pitching talent.
I think most analysts would agree the 2016 Sox have about average pitching talent. The below-average results shouldn't really be a surprise at this point.
It is what it is.
But still...
Toronto thought their starting pitching stunk by the time 2012 was done. So it should come as no surprise that the same offseason Farrell left for Boston, the organization traded away both Henderson Alvarez and Noah Syndergaard, in order to bring in a couple "6-7 IP 3-4 RA veterans" in R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle.
Boston thought Lester was fading into "6-7 IP 3-4 RA veteran" territory by the time 2013 was done. So is should come as no surprise that after he helped the Red Sox win two World Series, he would get a low-ball offer to stick around, at less than half what Theo Epstein finally gave him to become a Cub.
The Sox fixed Andrew Miller and Rich Hill down in the minors, watched them come up and actually succeed, and then head to other teams as MLB free agents and really shine, with the Sox having little to no apparent realization just how good these guys had actually had become (or how much they'd be missed).
But still, Lester was replaced by Rick Porcello, so there's that.
The Sox don't need any more "6-7 IP 3-4 RA" veterans. There's already pitching talent comparable to what most teams have in the Sox rotation and in its organizational depth. It's only that Boston Red Sox continue to get less from average results, from average talent.
IMO, it would be a travesty to lose either Anderson Espinoza or even Michael Kopech from the almost-tapped-out-already pitching pipeline in order to bring aboard the veteran MLB pitchers the 2016 Red Sox "need" to win. But at least one live arm will be included if the Sox acquire a starter, and those are the only two names worth a lottery ticket for other GMs right now.
To foresee losing such high-ceiling players simply because the Sox aren't acting on what should be recognized as a reality -- that almost every game which doesn't go according to the pitching script, it's up to the offense either to bail out Farrell's questionable moves and late hooks, or not. And that doesn't even get into the black box of his game planning for pitch location and sequencing, something we outsiders will never know well enough to judge.
So while it is what it is, I think it doesn't have to be what will be. The Sox don't have a pitching staff headed by 2013 Lester and Lackey, nor do they have 2013 Koji Uehara closing out games. To win the 2016 World Series, they shouldn't need to have that.
But to win the 2016 World Series in spite of John Farrell, they just might.
Before the Grady Little moment arrives, act now: Bin the Chin.
2011 TOR - 4.29 FIP (11th in AL), 4.70 RA/G (11th in AL)
2012 TOR - 4.66 FIP (13th in AL), 4.84 RA/G (11th in AL)
2013 BOS - 3.84 FIP ( 7th in AL), 4.05 RA/G ( 6th in AL)
2014 BOS - 3.93 FIP (10th in AL), 4.41 RA/G (11th in AL)
2015 BOS - 4.17 FIP (13th in AL), 4.65 RA/G (14th in AL)
FIP: one middle quintile results, two fourth quintile results, two bottom quintile results.
RA/G: one second quintile result, three fourth quintile results, one bottom quintile result.
2016 BOS - 4.09 FIP ( 8th in AL), 4.69 RA/G (12th in AL)
A spade needs to be called a spade. Regardless of the pitching coach, and regardless of the pitchers themselves, Farrell's teams have consistently coaxed average results from superior pitching talent, and poor results from average pitching talent.
I think most analysts would agree the 2016 Sox have about average pitching talent. The below-average results shouldn't really be a surprise at this point.
It is what it is.
But still...
Toronto thought their starting pitching stunk by the time 2012 was done. So it should come as no surprise that the same offseason Farrell left for Boston, the organization traded away both Henderson Alvarez and Noah Syndergaard, in order to bring in a couple "6-7 IP 3-4 RA veterans" in R.A. Dickey and Mark Buerhle.
Boston thought Lester was fading into "6-7 IP 3-4 RA veteran" territory by the time 2013 was done. So is should come as no surprise that after he helped the Red Sox win two World Series, he would get a low-ball offer to stick around, at less than half what Theo Epstein finally gave him to become a Cub.
The Sox fixed Andrew Miller and Rich Hill down in the minors, watched them come up and actually succeed, and then head to other teams as MLB free agents and really shine, with the Sox having little to no apparent realization just how good these guys had actually had become (or how much they'd be missed).
But still, Lester was replaced by Rick Porcello, so there's that.
The Sox don't need any more "6-7 IP 3-4 RA" veterans. There's already pitching talent comparable to what most teams have in the Sox rotation and in its organizational depth. It's only that Boston Red Sox continue to get less from average results, from average talent.
IMO, it would be a travesty to lose either Anderson Espinoza or even Michael Kopech from the almost-tapped-out-already pitching pipeline in order to bring aboard the veteran MLB pitchers the 2016 Red Sox "need" to win. But at least one live arm will be included if the Sox acquire a starter, and those are the only two names worth a lottery ticket for other GMs right now.
To foresee losing such high-ceiling players simply because the Sox aren't acting on what should be recognized as a reality -- that almost every game which doesn't go according to the pitching script, it's up to the offense either to bail out Farrell's questionable moves and late hooks, or not. And that doesn't even get into the black box of his game planning for pitch location and sequencing, something we outsiders will never know well enough to judge.
So while it is what it is, I think it doesn't have to be what will be. The Sox don't have a pitching staff headed by 2013 Lester and Lackey, nor do they have 2013 Koji Uehara closing out games. To win the 2016 World Series, they shouldn't need to have that.
But to win the 2016 World Series in spite of John Farrell, they just might.
Before the Grady Little moment arrives, act now: Bin the Chin.