Thanks to @absintheofmalaise for getting all of the other threads started, and I thought we could have one that discusses the Red Sox as a whole. I am breaking out to respond to this post, which makes a good point, I think:
My first thought is that, while Fangraphs is great at what they do (and one of the very few site I happily subscribe to on a monthly basis), their projections usually don't end up too close to 100% accurate, and like all projections of their type should be a good discussion point, but not necessarily something that we should use to portend doom.
Second, I expect the rotation to be pretty close to the bottom as well, when it drops tomorrow. Personally, I like the guys they have in the rotation (especially Bello/Pivetta/Crawford), but I totally understand that all five of the projected starters have A LOT to prove if the team is going to move up this list.
Third, I think that Trevor Story is severely under projected in their system for whatever reason, and I think that he will be solidly in the top 10 by the end of the season. I also think that they are underrated in CF, but that is a function of Rafaela's mixed bag last season. I don't think the team had a lot of room to upgrade at either of these positions, and I expect them to perform solidly above their projections this season, even if a lot of that value comes from defense. Let's say both of those positions get into (or at least near) the top 10, now all of a sudden you have six positions in the top 3rd of the league.
Catcher is a serious issue, I think, as I have never been sold on Wong and think McGuire is essentially a decent to below average backup. Second base has a lot of wild outcomes and could be awesome or could be atrocious.
What I wanted to look at in this thread, though, was how far off of league average they are in all of the positions as a whole, and how far from being top half or top third the projections have them at each position. I think this is a high variance team (personally I lean toward them outperforming their projections, as most of you have grown tired of), but I think they are not THAT far off of being a serious contender, if not in the AL East, then at least in the wild card race. So, let's see the numbers.
So, I think this really accentuates the catching issues. Wong has looked good this spring with the bat, but I really think that they are kind of boned there barring a miracle or Kyle Teel being ready this year way sooner than expected. I also don't know that there was a way for them to improve this position over the course of this offseason because neither of the current catchers are going to fetch any kind of return, and none of the stopgap free agents would have been a marked improvement, so I think the position is what it is, and we need to hope one of the prospects, hopefully Teel and hopefully soon, blossoms and becomes an MLB regular.
Literally every other position they are projected within half a WAR of the top 15, and less than 1 WAR from the top 10. Essentially, one extra hot week from, say Tyler O'Neill, and all of a sudden they are in the top 10 in RF. (NOTE: The bullpen is 1.1 WAR from the top 10, but bullpens are so high variance when it comes to WAR that I think the extra .1 is negligible).
And I think this was the biggest issue for the team this offseason and the biggest reason you didn't see them make a major splash in the free agent market (at least until Montgomery signs with them Thursday night, am I right?). They are essentially looking at a team that is league average across the board, so in order to make any type of assured and more than marginal upgrade, they would have had to sign a monster deal, and I am not even sure there was anyone on the market outside of Ohtani (bullet dodged? I kid) or one of the big starting pitchers that would have made it worth it. At this point, I think they were sort of stuck in the land of "hope for a couple of your league average guys to pop off and give the kids a year to develop in Portland" land. The fact that their big time, high projection prospects also happen to be at the same positions that would require monster contracts to get a real, demonstrable upgrade to the MLB roster only made it harder.
I do think that one more reasonably quality starting pitcher would immediately turn this team into a formidable opponent, but I also still don't think they are THAT far from being a contender with the current roster. And I stand by my previous statement from all winter than anyone railing that this team is going to lose 100 game is out of their god damned mind, or just a shit stirring troll. You know who you are.
But I will respond with a couple of thoughts and some numbers at the end.
My first thought is that, while Fangraphs is great at what they do (and one of the very few site I happily subscribe to on a monthly basis), their projections usually don't end up too close to 100% accurate, and like all projections of their type should be a good discussion point, but not necessarily something that we should use to portend doom.
Second, I expect the rotation to be pretty close to the bottom as well, when it drops tomorrow. Personally, I like the guys they have in the rotation (especially Bello/Pivetta/Crawford), but I totally understand that all five of the projected starters have A LOT to prove if the team is going to move up this list.
Third, I think that Trevor Story is severely under projected in their system for whatever reason, and I think that he will be solidly in the top 10 by the end of the season. I also think that they are underrated in CF, but that is a function of Rafaela's mixed bag last season. I don't think the team had a lot of room to upgrade at either of these positions, and I expect them to perform solidly above their projections this season, even if a lot of that value comes from defense. Let's say both of those positions get into (or at least near) the top 10, now all of a sudden you have six positions in the top 3rd of the league.
Catcher is a serious issue, I think, as I have never been sold on Wong and think McGuire is essentially a decent to below average backup. Second base has a lot of wild outcomes and could be awesome or could be atrocious.
What I wanted to look at in this thread, though, was how far off of league average they are in all of the positions as a whole, and how far from being top half or top third the projections have them at each position. I think this is a high variance team (personally I lean toward them outperforming their projections, as most of you have grown tired of), but I think they are not THAT far off of being a serious contender, if not in the AL East, then at least in the wild card race. So, let's see the numbers.
So, I think this really accentuates the catching issues. Wong has looked good this spring with the bat, but I really think that they are kind of boned there barring a miracle or Kyle Teel being ready this year way sooner than expected. I also don't know that there was a way for them to improve this position over the course of this offseason because neither of the current catchers are going to fetch any kind of return, and none of the stopgap free agents would have been a marked improvement, so I think the position is what it is, and we need to hope one of the prospects, hopefully Teel and hopefully soon, blossoms and becomes an MLB regular.
Literally every other position they are projected within half a WAR of the top 15, and less than 1 WAR from the top 10. Essentially, one extra hot week from, say Tyler O'Neill, and all of a sudden they are in the top 10 in RF. (NOTE: The bullpen is 1.1 WAR from the top 10, but bullpens are so high variance when it comes to WAR that I think the extra .1 is negligible).
And I think this was the biggest issue for the team this offseason and the biggest reason you didn't see them make a major splash in the free agent market (at least until Montgomery signs with them Thursday night, am I right?). They are essentially looking at a team that is league average across the board, so in order to make any type of assured and more than marginal upgrade, they would have had to sign a monster deal, and I am not even sure there was anyone on the market outside of Ohtani (bullet dodged? I kid) or one of the big starting pitchers that would have made it worth it. At this point, I think they were sort of stuck in the land of "hope for a couple of your league average guys to pop off and give the kids a year to develop in Portland" land. The fact that their big time, high projection prospects also happen to be at the same positions that would require monster contracts to get a real, demonstrable upgrade to the MLB roster only made it harder.
I do think that one more reasonably quality starting pitcher would immediately turn this team into a formidable opponent, but I also still don't think they are THAT far from being a contender with the current roster. And I stand by my previous statement from all winter than anyone railing that this team is going to lose 100 game is out of their god damned mind, or just a shit stirring troll. You know who you are.
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