Well, OK, if you play that game, Lester went 1-1 against Anibal Sanchez last October, so maybe 4/$70 is an overpay.bankshot1 said:You mean the guy who Lester bested twice last October?
Well, OK, if you play that game, Lester went 1-1 against Anibal Sanchez last October, so maybe 4/$70 is an overpay.bankshot1 said:You mean the guy who Lester bested twice last October?
HEH- The Sox or Lester will not win many games when they get 1-hitted.JimD said:Well, OK, if you play that game, Lester went 1-1 against Anibal Sanchez last October, so maybe 4/$70 is an overpay.
Quintanariffic said:When you adjust that ERA for the difference between the NL Central and AL East, I'd agree that Wainwright is a very good place to start.
What confuses me is not so much the 4/70 offer, but the fact that's the best the Sox offered after several weeks of discussions. That would seem to me to be an opening bid, not the best you can do in one of the prime negotiating windows of the year.
The Ms are valuable, and willing to spend. But the top two are established, with Paxton, Walker and whoever of Erasmo Ramirez and the suddenly interesting Roenis Elias seizes the last spot. While Hultzen works his way back. I wouldn't put it past them to show interest in Lester, and he does have some roots here (I'm in Seattle), but it only makes sense if the kids fall on their faces this year.HriniakPosterChild said:
Bullshit.
From this morning's Seattle Times:
Valuation of Mariners continues to skyrocket while team’s payroll remains steady
glennhoffmania said:
How does he define "bust" though? If they end up being a sunk cost at the end of the deal but were worth it for the first few years is that a bust?
The problem? Big-money contracts to free agent pitchers in their 30s are the riskiest bet a team can make. One club catalogues the failure rate at 75 percent.
No way. He's the same old Lester. Look at his game logs from last May and June:ivanvamp said:SSS and all that….
First four games: 29.0 ip, 26 h, 7 er, 4 bb, 29 k, 2.17 era, .601 ops, 1.03 whip, 9.0 k/9
And everyone is saying that Lester is making a ton more money for his next contract.
Last two games: 11.2 ip, 16 h, 7 er, 7 bb, 14 k, 5.40 era, .949 ops, 1.97 whip, 10.8 k/9
Does this mean he's losing money for his next contract?
Plympton91 said:If he goes to Free Agency, maybe he gets 6-$130 guaranteed. Why should the player be the one who has to gamble rather than the billionaire owner charging $250 a ticket.
TheYaz67 said:Yeah, so why can't he take a 4-5 year deal, then sign one more 2-3 year deal to finish his career? Is that asking too much? I mean, we are not talking about giving a 7 year deal to a 25 year old pitcher, and you have to admit there is an enormous amount of team risk to even do a 7 year deal with a younger pitcher? I don't mind following "automatic rules" if said rules include "don't sign ANY 31 year old pitchers to 7 year deals"....
Sampo Gida said:I think Lesters relative inconsistency over the past 3 years is holding the Red Sox back from giving him what he wants. He absolutely can not have a season like last where where he was pretty mediocre for 3 months. 6 games is way to early to judge. Also, the high pitch count over his first 6 games bears watching. He has averaged almost 10 pitches more per start than last year through 6 games.
Sampo Gida said:I think Lesters relative inconsistency over the past 3 years is holding the Red Sox back from giving him what he wants. He absolutely can not have a season like last where where he was pretty mediocre for 3 months. 6 games is way to early to judge. Also, the high pitch count over his first 6 games bears watching. He has averaged almost 10 pitches more per start than last year through 6 games.
Plympton91 said:While 5-$85 is certainly enough to take care of anyone's family, as Weaver said, who cares if he's taking $17m a year from the Angels owner who has an appreciating billion dollar asset adding to his wealth at a multiple of that every year. Why do so many people here openly root for the owners in salary negotiations?
.....
Plympton91 said:Why do so many people here openly root for the owners in salary negotiations?
gammoseditor said:
The other major unknown is what Lester is asking for. The contract Plympton through out above would be the largest contract ever for a pitcher Lester's age. Cot's lists the highest AAV for pitchers. Going down the list I don't see any pitchers Lester's age signing for more than 5 years, and it includes every pitcher contract over 12,500,000 per season.
radsoxfan said:
No one roots for the owners. We presume there is some budget, and more money allocated to one player means less for the rest of the team. I'd love for Lester to take more of John Henry's money, but not at the expense of forcing the front office to skimp on the rest of the roster.
“[The luxury tax threshold] has been [the payroll ceiling]. It really depends on, there’s some reason to believe that it may not be as important as we thought a couple of years ago,” said Henry. “There were certain incentives built into the [2014] season that at the time I doubted they would really carry the day, and that appears to be the case. They probably won’t.”
radsoxfan said:
No one roots for the owners. We presume there is some budget, and more money allocated to one player means less for the rest of the team. I'd love for Lester to take more of John Henry's money, but not at the expense of forcing the front office to skimp on the rest of the roster.
Sampo Gida said:Budgets are arbitrarily set by the owners, and owners tend to favor budgets which maximize
profits. They are not some physical law of nature that can not be breached. :lol:
Sampo Gida said:
Budgets are arbitrarily set by the owners, and owners tend to favor budgets which maximize
profits. They are not some physical law of nature that can not be breached. :lol:
nvalvo said:
As I see it, the time to root for the players is in CBA negotiations. Within the system once established, you want your GM to get value.
bosockboy said:My gut says the Sox are willing to pay him market value if he proves he's worth it.
Lester will find out what his market value is in the off-season. Then we will find out if the Sox discount is still in effect, or if they pissed it away, with the 4/70 low-ball offer.HriniakPosterChild said:
Why do you think they will get the chance to pay him market value? If he gets through the season healthy, it would be very unusual for him not to listen to offers from other clubs.
And the Yankees have a constitutional right to exceed any Red Sox offer.
bankshot1 said:Lester will find out what his market value is in the off-season. Then we will find out if the Sox discount is still in effect, or if they pissed it away, with the 4/70 low-ball offer.
I think this point is well taken. Sports owners' near-universal tendency to piss and moan about how much money they are losing is one of the more disgusting aspects of professional sports.Plympton91 said:While 5-$85 is certainly enough to take care of anyone's family, as Weaver said, who cares if he's taking $17m a year from the Angels owner who has an appreciating billion dollar asset adding to his wealth at a multiple of that every year. Why do so many people here openly root for the owners in salary negotiations?
Bone Chips said:Cha-Ching.
8 innings. 1 hit (a bloop single). 2 walks. 15 strikeouts. No runs. Absolutely dominating performance against the best team in the AL thus far in the season.
2.59 era and he leads the league in strikeouts. 6/1 K/BB ratio.
Starting to look like a mistake not signing him this Spring.
In evaluating Lester you have to deduct for his defense and his inability to control the running game.he is a very good pitcher but he does have flaws that most lefhanders don't have. what percent of his value this affects is up to the Red Sox to address but it is a factor.pdub said:Would you guys offer him 4yr/$100M? That's $25M per season. The way I see it we're going to HAVE to flirt with $100M territory in order to re-sign him, I feel that's a given. Its quite a short term, we pay more in order to have less to worry about as Lester gets older.
NDame616 said:
And his combined stats of his 2 previous starts were 0-2, 5.40 ERA and a .949 OPSA.
And for the year he's leading the league in IP, K and FIP.NDame616 said:
And his combined stats of his 2 previous starts were 0-2, 5.40 ERA and a .949 OPSA.
Yesterday was obviously a great game, but 2 starts ago he got smoked by the Yankees and was mediocre against the Blue Jays. So, I doubt the Red Sox will be reactionary with one game and see just yesterday and regret not signing him.
It will piss me off majorly if Lester ends up in the Urinal. But the MFY got a taste and need for lefties in that park (this can not be stressed enough) , and they got the dough, and he was all but invited by the Sox to smell the FA market.HriniakPosterChild said:
Another way of saying that: we will find out if Lester and his agent are rational economic actors.
I think I know the answer. It will suck to see Jon Lester in pinstripes. For me, it will be way worse than Ellsbury.
HriniakPosterChild said:
Another way of saying that: we will find out if Lester and his agent are rational economic actors.
I think I know the answer. It will suck to see Jon Lester in pinstripes. For me, it will be way worse than Ellsbury.
Nope. Not until next year, but he'll certainly be on the trade and sign market this offseason. The Yankees may have the beginning of an offer if Sanchez has a great season, but I don't know of they'll really be serious competitors. Plus Tampa has never been keen on trading within the division, so the Yankees and Red Sox would have to overpay.pdub said:I hope this isn't considered off-topic but isn't David Price a free agent this year?
pdub said:I hope this isn't considered off-topic but isn't David Price a free agent this year?
Plympton91 said:Nope. Not until next year, but he'll certainly be on the trade and sign market this offseason. The Yankees may have the beginning of an offer if Sanchez has a great season, but I don't know of they'll really be serious competitors. Plus Tampa has never been keen on trading within the division, so the Yankees and Red Sox would have to overpay.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
This is Price's third year of arbitration, (he was a Super 2) but his contract was a it odd in that it allowed him to void years of his initial major league contract (which he signed when drafted) and opt for arbitration instead. It's worded "in any year he is arbitration eligible" though, so I'm pretty sure this is the last season of control the Rays have over him, so he will probably be available at the deadline and should be a free agent this winter.
JimD said:
Did Ellsbury ever give any indication that he wanted to stay with the Red Sox? If the front office decides that he is worth it after all and makes a sizable offer, I believe Lester will re-sign here.
snowmanny said:but the general consensus seems to be that a signing at 5/100 or perhaps slightly above would make most of the board happy and is generally expected.