Evaluating Ben

[twibnotes]

 
I think you can be harsher than that on the decision.  They were faced with a situation where they had a suspect pitching rotation and $10 million to spend.  They chose to spend $10 million on Masterson's upside potential despite the fact that he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season.  
 
Instead, they could have used Stephen Wright or not made the Ranaudo/Ross trade, and taken that $10 million plus the $2 million they gave Breslow to strengthen the bullpen significantly.   Luke Hochevar got 2 years and $10 million from KC, and he's a potential relief ace.  Likewise Pat Neshek signed for 2 years, $12.5 million or Jason Grilli for 2 years, $8 million.  Strengthening the bullpen limits the damage the rotation can do. 

..,

Either of those last two could have been combined with Hochevar and been cheaper over 2 years than Masterson and Breslow were for one. 

P91 nails it here. Too often we dismiss mistakes like the Masterson signing by saying, "they can afford it." A contract doesn't have to be crippling to the future of the roster to be a lousy use of resources. Even a team like the Red Sox needs some cheaper guys to produce. $10 million on Masterson is and was a sloppy use of resources.

 

[moondog80]

 
I think you can be harsher than that on the decision.  They were faced with a situation where they had a suspect pitching rotation and $10 million to spend.  They chose to spend $10 million on Masterson's upside potential despite the fact that he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season.  
 
Instead, they could have used Stephen Wright or not made the Ranaudo/Ross trade, and taken that $10 million plus the $2 million they gave Breslow to strengthen the bullpen significantly.   Luke Hochevar got 2 years and $10 million from KC, and he's a potential relief ace.  Likewise Pat Neshek signed for 2 years, $12.5 million or Jason Grilli for 2 years, $8 million.  Strengthening the bullpen limits the damage the rotation can do. 
 
If they really wanted a solid veteran for the rotation, and were willing to spend $10 million for 2 years, they could have gotten Edinson Volquez, who has almost as much upside as Masterson, and was much better last year, especially in the second half.   Jason Hammel was also an option in the range (2 years, $18 million, with a third year option at $10 million or $2 million buyout); his bad ERA in Oakland was mostly a function of a ridiculous HR/FB rate.  Chris Young, who was great for Seattle last season, spent the whole offseason waiting for a contract and then signed with Kansas City for 1 year and $675,000.   He's been unhittable in relief, and has had a great 5 inning start for them.  Franklin Morales was a better starting pitcher last season than Masterson, even though he pitched in Colorado, and he only got $1.85 million from Kansas City.   Either of those last two could have been combined with Hochevar and been cheaper over 2 years than Masterson and Breslow were for one. 

 
Hochevar has pitched to 5 batters this year, and 0 last year.   He was quite good in 2013, but so was Edward Mujica.  Relievers are unpredictable.   I dunno.  Masterson was good in 2013, I think gambling on a bounceback to solid back end starter was a good move, particularly if they had reason to think he was hurt and/or they could fix what was wrong last year.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

 
My thoughts exactly. I'm probably a bit biased, but I've never liked having that guy in such a prominent evaluation position within the FO. I don't know exactly who advises what over there, but they've had some abysmal recommendations at the major league level over the past few years.

 
I've been beating this drum since 2010.  
 
Scratch tickets like Brock Holt don't really make up for losing all-in on Carl Crawford. 

 

[The Gray Eagle]

Brock Holt's evaluation would have been done by our minor league scouting people. Our major league scouts and evaluators would have been responsible for assessing Hanrahan and Melancon in that trade. 

 

[radsoxfan]

 
I think gambling on a bounceback to solid back end starter was a good move, particularly if they had reason to think he was hurt and/or they could fix what was wrong last year.

 
This is something we'll probably never find out, but I hope they had some medical reason to think he had a short term injury that accounted for the velocity drop and terrible numbers.  I know Masterson went on the DL with a "sore knee", but depending on what the actual knee injury was, I'm not sure that qualifies. 

 

[mauf]

Lack of quality, cost-controlled starting pitching has been a problem for the Sox for a few years; the fact that the two guys we got as throw-ins in the Punto Trade were consistently rated among our best pitching prospects speaks volumes. Most of the blame for that falls on Theo; the only thing BC arguably did wrong was waiting a year too long to cut bait on RDLR, Webster, and Ranaudo. Fortunately, there's evidence that BC has done good work filling the pipeline (E-Rod, Owens, et al.) since taking over the top job.

 

[moondog80]

Lack of quality, cost-controlled starting pitching has been a problem for the Sox for a few years; the fact that the two guys we got as throw-ins in the Punto Trade were consistently rated among our best pitching prospects speaks volumes. Most of the blame for that falls on Theo; the only thing BC arguably did wrong was waiting a year too long to cut bait on RDLR, Webster, and Ranaudo. Fortunately, there's evidence that BC has done good work filling the pipeline (E-Rod, Owens, et al.) since taking over the top job.

 
RDLR would be a big improvement over Masterson and Kelly (at least).  A little homer prone but nice K/BB.

 

[Toe Nash]

Lack of quality, cost-controlled starting pitching has been a problem for the Sox for a few years; the fact that the two guys we got as throw-ins in the Punto Trade were consistently rated among our best pitching prospects speaks volumes. Most of the blame for that falls on Theo; the only thing BC arguably did wrong was waiting a year too long to cut bait on RDLR, Webster, and Ranaudo. Fortunately, there's evidence that BC has done good work filling the pipeline (E-Rod, Owens, et al.) since taking over the top job.

Theo was in charge when they drafted Owens in 2011. Rodriguez seems like a nice get so far, but I'm not sure who is the "et al" you mention. Johnson is promising but looks like a back-of-the-rotation guy. Ball has time but is not looking great so far. Kopech, maybe. 
 
Plus, you have to think Cherington was in on most of the decisions that led them to the point of having zero good young pitchers. I don't think they have come near to solving this deficiency yet.

 

[JimD]

Losing sucks, as does the gnawing realization that Ben got fleeced by John Mokeliak last summer, but I still see this as ‘Good process – bad result’.  I’m willing to roll the dice with Pedey, Hanley and Pablo anchoring the post-Papi offense.  Porcello = Lester over the next four years IMO, and Miley is the only other current starter likely to be in the rotation next spring.  We really need the young pitchers in the minors to step up but there is room to sign a high-end free agent starter if needed.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Pretty good Summary here
 
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/boston-red-sox-jon-lester-gamble-john-farrell-florida-marlins-san-diego-padres-051115
 

Farrell presumably had a large role in selecting Nieves' replacement, Carl Willis -- the two previously had worked together with the Indians. The entire episode, then, figures to increase the scrutiny on Farrell, who received a contract extension in February through 2017.
If anything, though, the Red Sox's faulty roster construction is on Cherington -- and on an ownership that probably could have signed left-hander Jon Lester to a five-year, $125 million extension a year ago, but low-balled him with a four-year, $70 million offer.
By now, we are all familiar with the Red Sox's aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s and preference for shorter, high-dollar contracts. The strategy worked in '13, when Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jonny Gomes contributed to a Series title. But the success emboldened the Sox, leading to a series of unfortunate decisions.
At the moment, the team's Triple A roster includes outfielders Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, who are earning a combined $16 million this season, with $77.5 million more due. The demotion of Craig and struggles of Kelly make the initial return on the John Lackey trade look poor. And it's fair to question the wisdom of the Sox awarding contract extensions to Rick Porcello and especially Wade Miley before either ever threw a pitch for the team.
 

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Lack of quality, cost-controlled starting pitching has been a problem for the Sox for a few years; the fact that the two guys we got as throw-ins in the Punto Trade were consistently rated among our best pitching prospects speaks volumes.

 
Maybe it speaks volumes as to how hard it is to find top of the rotation starting pitching when you are picking in the 20s most years.  I know the same charge has been leveled at the MFYs and aside from Bundy and Gausman (top 5 draft picks), the Os haven't really developed anyone either.  Nor have the Blue Jays.
 
It would be great if the Sox had some competitive advantage when it comes to drafting and developing any player, much less starting pitchers.  I would guess (without doing a lot of research - and despite some evidence that the Red Sox are doing as well as anyone in drafting) that minor league development is pretty a crapshoot throughout the majors, particularly now that most of the loopholes where people could spend money to get a competitive advantage have disappeared. 

 

[In my lifetime]

Farrell presumably had a large role in selecting Nieves' replacement, Carl Willis -- the two previously had worked together with the Indians. The entire episode, then, figures to increase the scrutiny on Farrell, who received a contract extension in February through 2017.
If anything, though, the Red Sox's faulty roster construction is on Cherington -- and on an ownership that probably could have signed left-hander Jon Lester to a five-year, $125 million extension a year ago, but low-balled him with a four-year, $70 million offer.
By now, we are all familiar with the Red Sox's aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s and preference for shorter, high-dollar contracts. The strategy worked in '13, when Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jonny Gomes contributed to a Series title. But the success emboldened the Sox, leading to a series of unfortunate decisions.
At the moment, the team's Triple A roster includes outfielders Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, who are earning a combined $16 million this season, with $77.5 million more due. The demotion of Craig and struggles of Kelly make the initial return on the John Lackey trade look poor. And it's fair to question the wisdom of the Sox awarding contract extensions to Rick Porcello and especially Wade Miley before either ever threw a pitch for the team.
 

 
To me this kind of rationale is very misleading.
 
We all know Castillo is not long for the AAA roster, so to use his contract at this point as an example of anything is misleading.
Then questioning the wisdom of extending pitchers' contracts 1 month into those contracts is premature to say the least.  It will take a couple of years to decide if the RS were wise to invest in Porcello and Miley for 5 and 3 yrs respectively at a cost of ~112 which is still approximately >10 million dollars less than they feel Lester would have cost over a presumed 5 yr RS contract.
And when evaluating the Lackey trade, even assuming Lackey would have agreed to pitch for league minimum, there is no doubt that he would certainly be gone after this year.  Granted, currently the control of Craig is worth -20 million, but Kelly has tremendous upside and positive value to the RS and other teams at this point.  Will his value exceed the $ they seem to be doomed to eat from Craig's contract and the 15M or so of positive value Lackey has for the year?  Currently that seem unlikely, but Kelly's ceiling is probably higher than any pitcher in the organization.   

 

[The Mainahh]

C

 

[MikeM]

They were essentially out of play for any of the top line free agent pitching on the market last year, and they're going to be cap compliant.  They may open the wallet for one of the upcoming class--there will be more seasons after this one, you know--but Lester, Scherzer and Shields were never coming through that door.
 
Where's Ben been "wildly throwing cash around?"  If Masterson is your example, you flunked.  A one-year, 10m flyer on a potential recovery project isn't big money, and it's only a failure if they stick with him too long,

 
Ben wasn't essentially in on any of the top line free agent pitching out of choice, not necessity.  Or at least i believe that's the safe assumption there, given John Henry doesn't strike me as somebody who's taking a "don't spend over X amount under any circumstances" stance behind the scenes. I mean to quote the guy himself early in the offseason:
 
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/11/john_henry_red_sox_can_go_over_luxury_tax_hopeful_of
 
"The way it's structured we can blow through one year," Henry said. "Again, for next year we have tremendous flexibility. So we could go could through for one year and not overly effect us."
 
[SIZE=13.1999998092651px]Regardless of the beating Ben has taken on the board of late over Masterson, i actually do agree with you there btw. In the grander scheme of things Masterson is at the tail end (with the Miley trade, minus the utterly unnecessary decision to extend him) of my complaints in Ben's decision making logic lately, and even then that's much more a case of the "Conservative Ben" i (sometimes) like getting something wrong then an example of him spending wildly. Which as others have pointed out, probably points to another overlying problem of it's own...but still. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.1999998092651px]Craig, Castillo, Moncada, and going all in on Hanley/Panda with a pitching staff that was a pretty good bet to waste year 1 of those deals are much better potential examples of spending wildly, imo.  [/SIZE]

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Before we write off this season, the RS are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot and it is likely that they will get upgraded production at several spots.

Looking at the AL, the Royals have a run differential at +42 and no one else is over +30 so maybe talent is getting more spread out and the age of parity is upon us.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

What do we think of Edes's report that the Red Sox offered JBJ to Seattle for Furbush (and were turned down)?

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/599061419917578240

I would have hated it, but I'm a possibly-irrational JBJ believer.

 

[Merkle's Boner]

Before we write off this season, the RS are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot and it is likely that they will get upgraded production at several spots.

Looking at the AL, the Royals have a run differential at +42 and no one else is over +30 so maybe talent is getting more spread out and the age of parity is upon us.

Yes, but if your going to bring up run differential, it needs to be pointed out that the Sox are second worst in the league at -29 runs.

 

[johnnywayback]

What do we think of Edes's report that the Red Sox offered JBJ to Seattle for Furbush (and were turned down)?

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/599061419917578240

I would have hated it, but I'm a possibly-irrational JBJ believer.

 
Seems like that would have been a rich man's Ranaudo-for-Ross deal.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

 
Ben wasn't essentially in on any of the top line free agent pitching out of choice, not necessity.  Or at least i believe that's the safe assumption there, given John Henry doesn't strike me as somebody who's taking a "don't spend over X amount under any circumstances" stance behind the scenes. I mean to quote the guy himself early in the offseason:
 
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/11/john_henry_red_sox_can_go_over_luxury_tax_hopeful_of
 
"The way it's structured we can blow through one year," Henry said. "Again, for next year we have tremendous flexibility. So we could go could through for one year and not overly effect us."
 
[SIZE=13.1999998092651px]Regardless of the beating Ben has taken on the board of late over Masterson, i actually do agree with you there btw. In the grander scheme of things Masterson is at the tail end (with the Miley trade, minus the utterly unnecessary decision to extend him) of my complaints in Ben's decision making logic lately, and even then that's much more a case of the "Conservative Ben" i (sometimes) like getting something wrong then an example of him spending wildly. Which as others have pointed out, probably points to another overlying problem of it's own...but still. [/SIZE]
 
[SIZE=13.1999998092651px]Craig, Castillo, Moncada, and going all in on Hanley/Panda with a pitching staff that was a pretty good bet to waste year 1 of those deals are much better potential examples of spending wildly, imo.  [/SIZE]

We'll have to agree to disagree on the organizational constraints Ben was dealing with when he went shopping for pitching this past winter.  Regardless of JWH's sentiments in the Herald article, I don't think they were ever going to approach the market-level offers that Lester et al were obviously going to be entertaining.  
 
I also disagree that this year's acquisitions for this year are spending wildly at all.  You don't pass on guys like Hanley, Moncada and Castillo when they're available to be had for multiple years just because you think your pitching might not be up to snuff to win it all (I actually agree with you on Panda--I hate that contract--and put Craig in a special category because of the circumstances surrounding that trade).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Yes, but if your going to bring up run differential, it needs to be pointed out that the Sox are second worst in the league at -29 runs.

 
The good news is that the RS are outperforming their pythag expectations!
 
My real point is that no one is running away with the wild card spots this year.  The corollary to that is that because so many teams are in the chase, it seems that mid-season acquisitions will be a seller's market.

 

[daveuk]

What do we think of Edes's report that the Red Sox offered JBJ to Seattle for Furbush (and were turned down)?

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/599061419917578240

I would have hated it, but I'm a possibly-irrational JBJ believer.

 
Me too. I'm an unashamed JBJ fan boy so this seems to me like a huge under valuation.

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

The corollary to that is that because so many teams are in the chase, it seems that mid-season acquisitions will be a seller's market.

I think with the extra WC team, this is the new normal.

 

[MikeM]

What do we think of Edes's report that the Red Sox offered JBJ to Seattle for Furbush (and were turned down)?

https://twitter.com/GordonEdes/status/599061419917578240

I would have hated it, but I'm a possibly-irrational JBJ believer.

 
 
As Trautwein's Degree essentially pointed out earlier in the thread, at the end of the day the end game with prospects doesn't stop at where BA decides to rank our system. They exist for 1 of 2 reasons. Can't get too caught up in wishcasting for that all young/homegrown fantasy lineup and lose sight of the bigger (and more important) picture playing out at the MLB level.
 
Being a possibly-irrational JBJ believer myself, i probably would have still supported the deal overall in a "points for trying" type of manner. It was clear the bullpen ideally needed some help, and not like Furbush would have been a rental upgrade attempt.

 

[Toe Nash]

Cherington says it's false. Wouldn't be the first time Jack Z made something up.
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/43864