Dugger? I don't even know her!

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

The only quibble I have with this is I would tag Onwenu this year to see how he plays while working on a long term deal for him while also drafting 2 OT and see how they develop. If one or both can slot in as starter after this year, Onwenu does not get a long term deal. I would extend Duggar now and get him out of the way.

The Dugger situation really perplexes me. At first blush, it feels like a no brainer to bring him back. He's played well here and the team lacks elite talent. It appears that he'll be a highly sought after free agent, so if all of these other teams are interested, obviously he's a valuable commodity.

But still...I don't think they should bring Dugger back.

He's not worth the price tag. Whether you think he should be franchised ($17M) or sign a long term deal, his contract is most likely going to put his AAV as a top 5 safety in the NFL. That puts him in the Minkah Fitzpatrick, Jamal Adams, Derwin James, Jessie Bates stratosphere. Those are elite, all-pro level players. Does anyone view Dugger as those guys peer? Of course not. Primarily because...

He's not good in coverage. His strength as a thumper was perfect for BBs hybrid, 3 safety defense. It's where most of his value comes from as a player. In his first 3 seasons in the NFL, Dugger lined up in the box 1103 times while lining up as a free safety 215 times. That's more than a 5-1 ratio. This season, Dugger was asked to be a more balanced player, lining up in the box for 478 snaps and as a free safety 371 times. It lead to him being targeted the 5th most of all qualified safeties as well as giving up the 5th most catches per snap.

Unfortunately, when teams split him out into the slot this year, things got worse for him. Teams continued to target him - 4th highest # of targets per snap - but he also gave up the 2nd highest yards per snap amongst safeties (2.2 yards per snap). When he was tasked with coverage, teams picked on him consistently and successfully. Is a safety that struggles to cover worth a top 5 contract at safety? That leads me to...

Jabrill Peppers. We already have a thumping safety on the roster for next season, and we have him locked in for $5M. While Peppers wasn't in the box as consistently as Dugger this season, he seemingly performed better when going downhill. PFF has Peppers as their 2nd best safety against the run this season and 8th best last season (14th and 20th for Dugger). And he was able to perform so well against the run while also being PFFs 8th highest ranked coverage safety. While Dugger struggled this season with more coverage responsibilities, Peppers thrived. In fact, you could reasonably argue that Peppers wasn't just a better player than Dugger this season, he was significantly better.

All this leaves me asking...is spending $16-17M a season for Dugger - a good box safety that struggles in coverage - a good use of resources when we already have Peppers on the roster? It seems like most fans think so. In fact, I don't think I've seen anyone say they shouldn't resign Dugger. But that's what I'm saying.

For some reason, Peppers isn't getting the publicity he deserves. If I was the Patriots, I'd be taking advantage of that fact. For the cost of ONE year of Dugger, you could tack on TWO more years to Peppers, having him under contract for the next 3 years. Then you could fill the role of an in box safety - the only place where Dugger really thrives - for 1/3 to 1/2 the price.

With all of the holes that need to be filled, I don't view a safety specialist as a place to sink our funds.

 

[mcpickl]

They should probably sign him.

A long term deal would be for less than the franchise tag number, and the Patriots have money to spend.

If you don't want to spend it on a guy in his prime who the team already likes, odds are it's going to be spent worse on an outside free agent who you don't know will fit here or not.

My guess would be they get him locked up before the franchise tag window closes.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

They have the money to spend, and there’s no obvious in house replacement for him (or any replacement of any quality). Peppers isn’t a guarantee to be around after next year.

That 16M (or whatever it would be) is being spent somewhere. I don’t see how it’s wise to spend 7 or whatever on two worse players and open a hole on the roster, when they’re not strapped for cash and they’re going to need to rely on defense a lot. It’s not like the league is full of available and solid safeties.

I can see an argument for letting him go, as you say, he’s not worth elite money but how are you making the team better? The 7-10M you save between Dugger and a lesser free agent safety isn’t going to be the difference in solving any of the team’s problems since they have plenty of cap space.

 

[Jinhocho]

I like him but would be fine with him walking for the reasons above. I am surprised they are seriously considering franchising at that price. You could probably bring in someone cheaper who will give you better play in coverage.

 

[chilidawg]

Much rather see them franchise Onwenu for $23M.

 

[Harry Hooper]

He's the Jamie Collins of safeties, making 3-4 eye-popping plays a game but coming up short on a mess of routine plays. Let him go.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

LOVE Dugger. But given the presence of Peppers, and the relative ease of finding in-the-box safeties, I'd rather take that money and give it to a guy like Xavier McKinney.

 

[mcpickl]

Much rather see them franchise Onwenu for $23M.

It doesn't necessarily need to be either/or.

They're going to have 100M in space once they cut/massively restructure JC Jackson.

If they want to keep both Dugger and Onwenu, they should be trying hard to negotiate a long term deal with both of them right now, while they still have the threat of the franchise tag to use on either one of them. Get at least one done long term, can franchise the other.

LOVE Dugger. But given the presence of Peppers, and the relative ease of finding in-the-box safeties, I'd rather take that money and give it to a guy like Xavier McKinney.

This is fine in theory. But you already have an inside track on negotiating with Dugger. It's possible the Giants just tag McKinney, there have already been some rumors of them considering using the transition tag on him. If they don't, then you have to likely overpay McKinney to get him to choose New England over contenders/better markets.

If it were as easy as going into a grocery store and saying. yes I'll take one McKinney instead of one Dugger please, then that's a solid plan. But you can guarantee yourself having Dugger by tagging/extending him, there is no guarantee on getting McKinney. And if you pass on tagging/extending Dugger to chase McKinney instead, there's a good chance you end up with neither.

Peppers wouldn't figure into my calculus at all. There is plenty of room for both, as there was last year, with them both being able to move between safety and undersized LB in passing downs. Real nice to have both.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

If Peppers were 25 and under contract for a few years, maybe he’s more relevant to the conversation but he’s going to command big bucks next year if he plays well in 2024 (and if he doesn’t play well, he’s a bad contingency plan for Dugger). He’s also going to be 29 and doesn’t have the best track record of health

Are there people who really want Peppers next year at 16-18M a year for his age 30-33 seasons? Because if you let Dugger go (not worth 16M, Peppers is better etc), wouldn’t it stand to reason that paying Peppers big money is a bad idea as well? He was good last year but not in the all pro level and he’s going to be entering the part of his career where he may fall off a cliff soon.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Dugger is 28 himself, though. Not sure he’s a guy to build around either.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Is Peppers a FA? And is he going to command 16-18 mill per year when he is? I can't imagine.

 

[Seels]

I'm indifferent. I hated him as a draft pick. He's played reasonably well here. But he won't be worth the next contract. But, they have money to spend and need players.

I'd be fine with a 4 year deal at like 15m a year or something. But he probably doesn't take it. I don't think he's good enough or with enough upside to give more than that.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

If Peppers were 25 and under contract for a few years, maybe he’s more relevant to the conversation but he’s going to command big bucks next year if he plays well in 2024 (and if he doesn’t play well, he’s a bad contingency plan for Dugger). He’s also going to be 29 and doesn’t have the best track record of health

Are there people who really want Peppers next year at 16-18M a year for his age 30-33 seasons? Because if you let Dugger go (not worth 16M, Peppers is better etc), wouldn’t it stand to reason that paying Peppers big money is a bad idea as well? He was good last year but not in the all pro level and he’s going to be entering the part of his career where he may fall off a cliff soon.

I think what would make sense is to extend Peppers now, before he hits FA. Since they are both about the same age and Peppers is the guy you would rather have.

I'm indifferent. I hated him as a draft pick. He's played reasonably well here. But he won't be worth the next contract. But, they have money to spend and need players.

I'd be fine with a 4 year deal at like 15m a year or something. But he probably doesn't take it. I don't think he's good enough or with enough upside to give more than that.

I suppose that could also be a case for franchising him and letting him go after the season.

 

[PRabbit]

Signing guys like Dugger to 15m+ deals is how you...don't have cap space.

Let him go.

 

[k-factory]

When they started giving Peppers more run it was clear they valued him more highly in the box role. That combined with drafting Mapu I thought he was the look ahead plan for life without Dugger.
They did try to give Dugger more coverage opportunities early one to see his versatility but he wasn’t particularly good at it.
So the question is can he grow there or do you more or less have a one-dimensional safety? And if so is that where you want to throw your money?
The big question mark is Mapu. Is he a safety? A linebacker? Nothing at all?
With so much hype entering the season he got little run and did next to nothing. So that’s what they need to project a bit.

 

[DJnVa]

Is Peppers a FA? And is he going to command 16-18 mill per year when he is? I can't imagine.

He's not a FA, he signed a 2/$9M contract.

 

[j44thor]

I think you can get 80% of the performance you will get from Dugger for a lot less than 80% of the contract so he is an easy pass for me. In the box S is a low impact position on defense. If you pay Dugger this year that leaves less $$ for Barmore next year who is a much more impactful and important player. If Dugger was a more complete S who offered coverage skills as well I'd think differently about extending him but S that can't cover don't offer a lot of versatility.

 

[RG33]

With Belichick(s) leaving I would think there is almost zero chance of signing Dugger to a $15M per year contract. Those pet project/sleeper finds that he so enjoyed and valued feel like they are going to be a thing of the past now. Grab a Safety in the 4th round and coach him up like everybody else and go spend on OT / WR / DE / LB.

 

[Van Everyman]

Pats have reportedly made an offer.

 

[Cellar-Door]

With Belichick(s) leaving I would think there is almost zero chance of signing Dugger to a $15M per year contract. Those pet project/sleeper finds that he so enjoyed and valued feel like they are going to be a thing of the past now. Grab a Safety in the 4th round and coach him up like everybody else and go spend on OT / WR / DE / LB.

I think Bill being gone makes it FAR more likely that they keep Dugger. Bill's whole thing is he would bring you in as a project/sleeper, then let someone else sign them (Collins, KVN, etc. etc.) then maybe it doesn't work out and you bring them back with someone else having paid the signing bonus. Bill was always confident in his ability to find a guy.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I think Bill being gone makes it FAR more likely that they keep Dugger. Bill's whole thing is he would bring you in as a project/sleeper, then let someone else sign them (Collins, KVN, etc. etc.) then maybe it doesn't work out and you bring them back with someone else having paid the signing bonus. Bill was always confident in his ability to find a guy.

Right. Dugger is a legitimately good NFL player, it is irrelevant whether he was perceived by the general draft viewership, if not actual NFL teams with people crunching tape and research for months, as an out of nowhere sleeper pick in the 2020 draft. Dugger isn’t some journeyman bit player that Bill kept around; if he hits the market he’s getting a bag.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Right. Dugger is a legitimately good NFL player, it is irrelevant whether he was perceived by the general draft viewership, if not actual NFL teams with people crunching tape and research for months, as an out of nowhere sleeper pick in the 2020 draft. Dugger isn’t some journeyman bit player that Bill kept around; if he hits the market he’s getting a bag.

yeah he's the #20 free agent on PFF's list.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

it is irrelevant whether he was perceived by the general draft viewership, if not actual NFL teams with people crunching tape and research for months, as an out of nowhere sleeper pick in the 2020 draft.

I agree with this, but Dugger went pretty much exactly where the various guides and mock drafts had him going. Small school, yes, but he was in that group of 2nd round safeties. This wasn't a Tavon Wilson thing.

edit: left out a word.

 

[j-man]

for ne to make a massing jump they to spend 90% on off

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

for ne to make a massing jump they to spend 90% on off

On which players on offense?

 

[Cellar-Door]

I do not expect the Patriots to spend a ton on offense. Good amount sure. But this is a strong defensive FA class and a weaker Offensive one, where the draft is loaded on offense. I'd guess they spend on 1 tier 2 WR and O-line, maybe grab a TE but then they invest in D so they can be free to use as many picks on Offense as they want.

 

[Dogman]

In FA, I'm hoping for a WR like Ridley, a depth OT, re-sign Zeke, franchising Onwenu, grabbing Dalton Shultz, and a vet QB. Then, a 3 year deal for Duggar, a DL, and a CB.

In the draft: QB, OT, WR with the first 3 picks and then some order of OL, TE, LB, Edge, CB, S.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

In FA, I'm hoping for a WR like Ridley, a depth OT, re-sign Zeke, franchising Onwenu, grabbing Dalton Shultz, and a vet QB. Then, a 3 year deal for Duggar, a DL, and a CB.

In the draft: QB, OT, WR with the first 3 picks and then some order of OL, TE, LB, Edge, CB, S.

Going to need a few more LB if Uche, Jennings and Wilson all leave

 

[Dogman]

Yeah, add Jennings and Wilson to the FA LB list. Neither will be expensive.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I want Jennings and Wilson back. Uche can go elsewhere while we sign Brian Burns to big $$$.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I want Jennings and Wilson back. Uche can go elsewhere while we sign Brian Burns to big $$$.

One would think Burns will get tagged

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

One would think Burns will get tagged

Do you think Burns AND Josh Allen AND Danielle Hunter will all get tagged? Please don't make me weep.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Do you think Burns AND Josh Allen AND Danielle Hunter will all get tagged? Please don't make me weep.

I don’t think Hunter will. The other two seem obvious.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I don’t think Hunter will. The other two seem obvious.

IF, by chance, none of them is franchised, what are the board's preferences on which edge rusher to pursue?

 

[j-man]

On which players on offense?

re-sign owenur
and add a QB Slot wr 2 more OL Speed RB TE and next offseason add 1-2 WR