Draft Value and the Shape of the Curve

[InstaFace]

I mean, he did have a top-2 pick, he just traded it but came away with top-2 value anyway. We'll see how that pick ends up going value-wise.

With the tiny sample sizes of 2003-2017 first-rounders only, Ainge is 6th on a total-value basis, essentially tied with TOR for 5th.



edit: and if, like me, you're wondering how GSW is 16th or 17th on these measures, it's because despite their huge wins with Curry, Draymond, Klay and Monta Ellis (+36.3), plus Barnes, they whiffed hard on 3 top-10 picks, Diogu #9 '05 (-17), O'Bryant #9 '06 (-24.5), and Udoh #6 '10 (-18.5), plus a whole bunch of minor losses throughout the years.

 

[scottyno]

@InstaFace You might have mentioned this earlier and I missed it, but for active players did you include this year or stop after last year? It probably wouldn't change many guys much, but I imagine someone like Brown's projection over the next 10 years or so would be pretty different depending on if you base it off of what's looking like a 7-8 WS season this year instead of a previous best of 4.5.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Amazing how much talent OKC drafted in 3 consecutive years, Durant, Harden, Westbrook. Sad really that they couldn't keep it together.

 

[scottyno]

Amazing how much talent OKC drafted in 3 consecutive years, Durant, Harden, Westbrook. Sad really that they couldn't keep it together.

Kendrick Perkins killed 2 potential dynasties in 2 years, first by getting hurt, and then by getting a contract extension far above what he was worth anymore that cost OKC Harden.

 

[oumbi]

Until he earns a sobriquet more related to his play, I'm suggesting he be referred to as Romeo "Found Money" Langford.

 

[InstaFace]

@InstaFace You might have mentioned this earlier and I missed it, but for active players did you include this year or stop after last year? It probably wouldn't change many guys much, but I imagine someone like Brown's projection over the next 10 years or so would be pretty different depending on if you base it off of what's looking like a 7-8 WS season this year instead of a previous best of 4.5.

It included all stats up to a few days ago. Had to add half a year to every active player's career length to get the pro-rating right.

 

[chilidawg]

Surprising that Milwaukee, even with GA being one of their 13 picks, is so bad. They must really have done badly with the rest of their picks.

My thanks also for putting this together.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Amazing how much talent OKC drafted in 3 consecutive years, Durant, Harden, Westbrook. Sad really that they couldn't keep it together.

Funny how much credit OKC gets for Durant when they could have just as easily ended up with Greg Oden, particularly given PDX's past experience with Walton.

Harden was a way more difficult pick. In that draft there were 9 guards drafted in the first 12 picks. 2009 was an interesting draft: lot of guard/small forward talent (Harden, Steph, DeRozen, Teague, Collison, Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Holiday, Rubio, Jennings, Patty Mills, DeMare Carrol, Tyreke Evans, and Beverley all had over 25 WS), other than Blake Griffin, there was no impact big man talent at all (Taj Gibson is second in WS at 50.9 but I don't really consider him impact and then Jerakbo at 25.8 WS and Dante Cunningham at 24.9 WS).

 

[RetractableRoof]

Funny how much credit OKC gets for Durant when they could have just as easily ended up with Greg Oden, particularly given PDX's past experience with Walton.

Harden was a way more difficult pick. In that draft there were 9 guards drafted in the first 12 picks. 2009 was an interesting draft: lot of guard/small forward talent (Harden, Steph, DeRozen, Teague, Collison, Ty Lawson, Danny Green, Holiday, Rubio, Jennings, Patty Mills, DeMare Carrol, Tyreke Evans, and Beverley all had over 25 WS), other than Blake Griffin, there was no impact big man talent at all (Taj Gibson is second in WS at 50.9 but I don't really consider him impact and then Jerakbo at 25.8 WS and Dante Cunningham at 24.9 WS).

I agree with your point, that was a very talented group of group you point out. Picking the one who would go on to adapt his skills to exploit the NBA rule set, and still capitalize on all of his physical gifts was indeed credit worthy. I don't suppose they would have been too disappointed had they missed and chosen Curry... lol

WRT Durant, that's pretty much @scottyno's point above, right? Does OKC really deserve a lot of credit at #2, for taking Durant once Oden was off the table? I mean, they didn't screw it up - so there is that.

I wasn't really admiring the draft acumen for those 3 players (though they deserve a lot of credit), as much as admiring the cluster of talent done the old school way through the draft. A big three without any one-sided trades, without the players forcing trades. Maybe you could argue there was tanking to be in a position to have the choices before them (which wasn't old school), but beyond that they just got it done. Once they had a big, they should have been what we saw in Golden State - a multiyear dominant championship winner. I think that is one of the NBA's bigger "what should have been" stories. When we attempt to sort through data/history to figure out what has happened, you often end up appreciating unexpected things you discover or are reminded of. I think that is why so many of us are enjoying Posnanski's 100 greatest baseball players series, and the write-ups with them. It's the stories that come with the numbers. Yet another reason to thank @InstaFace for his efforts.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I agree with your point, that was a very talented group of group you point out. Picking the one who would go on to adapt his skills to exploit the NBA rule set, and still capitalize on all of his physical gifts was indeed credit worthy. I don't suppose they would have been too disappointed had they missed and chosen Curry... lol

WRT Durant, that's pretty much @scottyno's point above, right? Does OKC really deserve a lot of credit at #2, for taking Durant once Oden was off the table? I mean, they didn't screw it up - so there is that.

I wasn't really admiring the draft acumen for those 3 players (though they deserve a lot of credit), as much as admiring the cluster of talent done the old school way through the draft. A big three without any one-sided trades, without the players forcing trades. Maybe you could argue there was tanking to be in a position to have the choices before them (which wasn't old school), but beyond that they just got it done. Once they had a big, they should have been what we saw in Golden State - a multiyear dominant championship winner. I think that is one of the NBA's bigger "what should have been" stories. When we attempt to sort through data/history to figure out what has happened, you often end up appreciating unexpected things you discover or are reminded of. I think that is why so many of us are enjoying Posnanski's 100 greatest baseball players series, and the write-ups with them. It's the stories that come with the numbers. Yet another reason to thank @InstaFace for his efforts.

Good post. Definitely agree with the bolded. Again!