Did Cashman overlook offense at the trade deadline?

[FanSinceBoggs]

The Yankees' hitters in August:
Beltran 1.052 OPS
McCann .776 OPS
Headly .709 OPS
Ellsbury .691 OPS
Drew .660 OPS
Gregorius .594 OPS
Teix .575 OPS (has been hurt--57 ABs in August; 1.146 OPS in July)
Gardner .543 OPS
A-Rod .500 OPS (1.033 OPS in July)
Young .437 OPS (has fallen off a cliff -- a .923 OPS in July)
 
It is interesting to note that the Yankees were rumored to have trade deadline interest in starting pitchers (Hamels and Price) and relief pitchers (Kimbrel).  Yet, as August has unfolded, it appears the Yankees greatest need was a bat and I don't remember hearing the Yankees pursuing any bats at the trade deadline.  To be sure, a prospect like Mateo, who the Yankees would have given up for Kimbrel, would have brought back a quality offensive player even if they had to settle for a rental.
 
True, Teix and A-Rod were absolutely raking in July.  But Teix, A-Rod, and Beltran are older players and Cashman should have anticipated that something would go wrong either in the form of an injury or slump.  While Beltran has been excellent this month, Teix and A-Rod have either been injured or slumping or both in the dog days of August.
 
Furthermore, while McCann is a quality offensive catcher, he has been physically beat-up over the course of the season (like other starting catchers) and thus was not someone to count on to pick up the offensive slack.
 
Bird is a nice prospect, but hitters usually need time to develop and thus was not someone to count on to pick up the offensive slack (Bird has a .663 OPS in August).
 
When you have older players you better be prepared for late season injuries or slumps and [SIZE=12pt]Cashman arguably wasn't prepared for this.  He erroneously assumed these guys would continue to perform at a high level.  He was right about Beltran, but he was wrong about Teix and A-Rod, and now it is too late to upgrade the offense.[/SIZE]

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
 
True, Teix and A-Rod were absolutely raking in July.  But Teix, A-Rod, and Beltran are older players and Cashman should have anticipated that something would go wrong either in the form of an injury or slump.  While Beltran has been excellent this month, Teix and A-Rod have either been injured or slumping or both in the dog days of August.

 
So he should have ANTICIPATED that two guys who were hitting well would stop hitting well?  While another guy who wasn't hitting well would suddenly start to hit well?

Shit.  If he should have anticipated that, then he should have anticipated CC's injury, and a whole bunch of other things as well!

 

[glennhoffmania]

Well to be fair, is there anyone who couldn't have anticipated Sabathia getting hurt?  That was one of the least surprising things that's happened to them.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

 
So he should have ANTICIPATED that two guys who were hitting well would stop hitting well?  While another guy who wasn't hitting well would suddenly start to hit well?

Shit.  If he should have anticipated that, then he should have anticipated CC's injury, and a whole bunch of other things as well!

 
Thanks for your great post.  One could argue that the thing that separates a good GM from a not-so-good is the ability to anticipate, which is why I highlighted that word.
 
With that said, how hard is it to anticipate that older players, who have helped carry the offense for most of the season, would probably reach a point of decline or injury later in the season?  The Yankees were counting on 3 older players (Teix, Beltran, A-Rod) and a catcher (McCann) to carry the offense as middle-of-the-order bats.  That is surely a problematic strategy.
 
The CC comparison isn't appropriate for reasons that should be obvious -- he is a bottom of the rotation starter, not a middle of the order bat, and so his loss is not a big deal.

 

[jon abbey]

I think the premise here is a bit misguided, let me take a shot at it.
 

It is interesting to note that the Yankees were rumored to have trade deadline interest in starting pitchers (Hamels and Price) and relief pitchers (Kimbrel).  

 
 
To start with, there was never real interest from NY in Hamels (I don't even remember fake rumors) and as has been discussed, Price was barely on the market because TOR offered literally any prospects in their system and he was dealt almost immediately after becoming available. The Kimbrel interest was real.
 
But more importantly, NY was never genuinely trying to compete for a title this year, as they knew they couldn't (although of course everyone in the postseason has at least a puncher's chance, so if they end up getting in, who knows). The fact that they collectively overchieved through July isn't a reason to change the longer-term plan, which is to get younger and let the contracts of the older players expire. Also, they have been in a position since the end of 2014 where it's really hard for them to upgrade because they have guys in place at almost every position with unmovable contracts.
 
Cashman did a great job bringing in Eovaldi and Gregorius for little cost in the offseason, and has quickly turned the pitching staff into one of the youngest and most talented in baseball. The position players are much harder to turn around, 2B is the obvious hole and place to upgrade and maybe they should have gone after Zobrist harder, but with KC and TOR both decidedly more desperate in going for it this year, that wasn't going to happen (TOR reportedly also went after Zobrist before KC got him). 

I'm personally very happy they've gone with this plan and stuck with it thus far, hopefully they continue to do so. Moving someone like Severino for a short-term hitting fix would have been disastrous. 

 

[jon abbey]

Not usually a fan of RAB macro analysis, but they have some relevant points on this today:

"3. Thanks to Luis Severino and various relievers, the Yankees went into yesterday’s game with an average pitcher age of 27.7 years this season, their lowest since 1971 (27.3 years). That average age is weighted by playing time, by the way. So the 24-year-old who throws one inning doesn’t count as much as the 35-year-old who throws 120 innings. The Yankees have the seventh youngest pitching staff in baseball this year — the Rays are the youngest (26.8 years) and the Giants are by far the oldest (31.7 years, next highest is the Royals at 30.3 years) — after being the fifth oldest last year (29.3 years) and the oldest the year before (31.8 years). The position players are still a little long in the tooth — oldest in MLB at 31.5 years, which ties back into the whole “looking old” thing in Point 1 — but the pitching staff is much younger, with guys like Severino, Nathan Eovaldi, Masahiro Tanaka, and Michael Pineda all no older than 26. That’s exciting. Who knows if they’ll stay healthy or remain effective long-term, but man, it’s nice to see some youth on the staff. They’ve gotten significantly younger on the mound in a very short period of time."

http://riveraveblues.com/2015/08/thoughts-following-the-ten-game-homestand-126821/

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

I must admit: the idea that the Yankees were not genuinely competing for a title this year is news to me.  They were 7-8 games in first place near the trade deadline.  At that juncture, and with that kind of lead, there is no reason to give up on the season or refuse upgrades for a possible championship run.  It sounds like the Yankees were looking to make upgrades, but arguably targeted the wrong thing: pitching rather than hitting.
 
They may be false rumors, but I have the Yankees connected to starting pitchers at the trade deadline, such as Price:
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2015-07-29/david-price-trade-rumors-yankees-dodgers-blue-jays
 
And I forgot about Cueto:
http://www.inquisitr.com/2265314/new-york-yankees-trade-rumors-team-scouts-johnny-cueto-yankees-reds-trade-coming-soon/
 
Admittedly, these reports may be false. . . .
 
I agree that holding on to Severino was the right thing to do.  But they didn't need to trade Severino to upgrade the offense.  They could have upgraded the offense by trading Mateo, and according to reports, the Yankees were willing to move Mateo for a relief pitcher.

 

[jon abbey]

I must admit: the idea that the Yankees were not genuinely competing for a title this year is news to me.  They were 7-8 games in first place near the trade deadline.  At that juncture, and with that kind of lead, there is no reason to give up on the season or refuse upgrades for a possible championship run.  It sounds like the Yankees were looking to make upgrades, but arguably targeted the wrong thing: pitching rather than hitting.

 
Of course they weren't giving up on the season, Cashman explored the possibilities but in the end decided that sticking with his team made the most sense in the big picture. I'm saying NY is more concerned about 2016 and beyond than they ever have been about 2015, although obviously no one would ever say that publicly. You can easily read between the lines in any of Hal Steinbrenner's rare public comments, though, where all he basically talks about is the kids like Severino and Judge and Bird and Mateo.
 
 

They could have upgraded the offense by trading Mateo, and according to reports, the Yankees were willing to move Mateo for a relief pitcher.

 
Begrudgingly they were, and I think it would have probably been a mistake, but outside of Zobrist, I'm not sure where exactly that magical offensive upgrade would have come from, and more importantly, who would have been benched. 2B is an obvious issue, and the other position people have complained about all year is RF and Beltran, and now he is their best hitter this month. They were essentially locked into this lineup from day 1 this year (barring injuries) and are locked in again in 2016 (barring trades or injuries). They could have traded for Cespedes (although the Mets gave up a stud pitching prospect for him), but then what? Who would have been benched? 

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
Of course they weren't giving up on the season, Cashman explored the possibilities but in the end decided that sticking with his team made the most sense in the big picture. I'm saying NY is more concerned about 2016 and beyond than they ever have been about 2015, although obviously no one would ever say that publicly. You can easily read between the lines in any of Hal Steinbrenner's rare public comments, though, where all he basically talks about is the kids like Severino and Judge and Bird and Mateo.
 
 
 
Begrudgingly they were, and I think it would have probably been a mistake, but outside of Zobrist, I'm not sure where exactly that magical offensive upgrade would have come from, and more importantly, who would have been benched. 2B is an obvious issue, and the other position people have complained about all year is RF and Beltran, and now he is their best hitter this month. They were essentially locked into this lineup from day 1 this year (barring injuries) and are locked in again in 2016 (barring trades or injuries). They could have traded for Cespedes (although the Mets gave up a stud pitching prospect for him), but then what? Who would have been benched? 

 
Well, Beltran of course!  He's the old guy of the outfield, and to that point he hadn't produced much.  And you can't anticipate a guy his age suddenly starting to hit, can you?

 

[jon abbey]

I mean, ideally they'd like A-Rod to vanish into thin air, then they could move Beltran to DH where he belongs and go after Cespedes or Jason Heyward or trade for a young outfielder like they did Gregorius and Eovaldi, but pretty clearly the first part of that isn't happening and so they're stuck pretty much as is at least until Beltran's deal is up after 2016. 

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Well, Beltran of course!  He's the old guy of the outfield, and to that point he hadn't produced much.  And you can't anticipate a guy his age suddenly starting to hit, can you?
 
 

 
That's true: Beltran hadn't produced much to that point.  He only had an above .800 OPS for every month of the season with the exception of April.  But you're right, he hadn't produced much to that point.
 
The larger point is when you go into a season counting on older players to be your middle of the order thumpers, there is a really good chance that a few of those guys will not produce for you later in the season when injury and age catch up to those players.  It didn't happen in Beltran's case, but it happened in Teix and A-Rod's case, and Cashman was arguably unprepared for it.
 
By the way, impressive use of the word "Shit" in your first post, very eloquent.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Begrudgingly they were, and I think it would have probably been a mistake, but outside of Zobrist, I'm not sure where exactly that magical offensive upgrade would have come from, and more importantly, who would have been benched. 2B is an obvious issue, and the other position people have complained about all year is RF and Beltran, and now he is their best hitter this month. They were essentially locked into this lineup from day 1 this year (barring injuries) and are locked in again in 2016 (barring trades or injuries). They could have traded for Cespedes (although the Mets gave up a stud pitching prospect for him), but then what? Who would have been benched?
 

 
 
Joel Sherman, an excellent commentator in my opinion, made a similar point on WFAN the other day.  He said the Yankees were locked into position players (at the trade deadline) and could only upgrade 2b.  This is a reasonable argument.  Zobrist would have been a step in the right direction but a player like Cespedes didn't have a clear starting position (with Gardner, Beltran, and A-Rod locked in at LF, RF, and DH and hitting well in July).
 
The counter argument: trading for Zobrist and adding offensive depth beyond Zobrist.  Jones didn't work out for the Yankees and Dustin Ackley isn't much of an offensive player.  They are counting on Bird, but counting on rookie hitters in an age of slumping offense is risky.
 
The Yankees will face the same problem next year.  They will have old guys like Teix, A-Rod, and Beltran in the middle of the order.  Such players may decline later in the season and the offense will slump.  Making matters worse, McCann, Ellsbury, Gardner, and Headly will all be a year older.  They need to add a guy in his prime like an Upton or Heyward, but they would need to dump one of the existing contracts.  They probably should do something like that even though it will create a sunk cost.  On the other hand, maybe the Yankees are counting on Bird and Judge to provide the necessary depth to the 2016 offense (risky strategy).

 

[jon abbey]

And would Upton or Heyward just end up as another massive millstone deal they would hope to dump in a few years?

 

[RG33]

The larger point is when you go into a season counting on older players to be your middle of the order thumpers, there is a really good chance that a few of those guys will not produce for you later in the season when injury and age catch up to those players.  It didn't happen in Beltran's case, but it happened in Teix and A-Rod's case, and Cashman was arguably unprepared for it.
.

The problem with your line of thinking (aside from the crystal ball component), is that there is really no way to prepare for that with the contracts these guys have. Was Cashman supposed to trade for starting 1B, OF, and another DH? Where were they going to play if those guys weren't hurt? From a roster construction standpoint, where do you put them? Take away some bullpen help and carry 8 pitchers?

I mean it is great to play armchair GM after Tex goes into a huge slump and A-Rod slows his All-Star pace, but the logistics of actually doing what you're suggesting aren't very practical either.

 

[Wingack]

I wonder if this offseason, now that he has had a very productive and pretty healthy year, the Yankees would consider trading Teixiera for younger offensive pieces. Perhaps a second basemen or an outfielder. I am doubtful he will be this good going forward, but he doesn't have much left on his deal and maybe some other team would take a shot at him.

 

[jon abbey]

I think they definitely would, but I don't know how much value he would have. I think they'd also consider moving Gardner or Ellsbury or Beltran or Headley or even McCann, but not sure how much value any of them have coupled with their current deals.
 
The problem with big deals in today's game isn't just the money, it's the flexibility it takes away from a team. Once a guy gets big money, he is pretty much locked into his spot barring injury or extended dreadful play, and even that doesn't always do it, as we saw with Sabathia. 

 

[Wingack]

He only has one year left on his deal, I would think maybe a team out there would gamble on that.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

The problem with your line of thinking (aside from the crystal ball component), is that there is really no way to prepare for that with the contracts these guys have. Was Cashman supposed to trade for starting 1B, OF, and another DH? Where were they going to play if those guys weren't hurt? From a roster construction standpoint, where do you put them? Take away some bullpen help and carry 8 pitchers?

I mean it is great to play armchair GM after Tex goes into a huge slump and A-Rod slows his All-Star pace, but the logistics of actually doing what you're suggesting aren't very practical either.

 
I’ll use an analogy.  I’m driving around with 3 tires with below normal air pressure.  I soon get a flat.  Should I conclude that I couldn’t possibly anticipate a flat tire – after all, I don’t have a crystal ball?  Or should I conclude that a flat tire is a likely (but not certain) outcome of driving with 3 tires with insufficient air pressure?  The Yankees situation is more analogous to the latter than former.
 
The roster issue isn’t a problem at all.  Zobrist takes Drew’s spot and the Yankees would add an offensive player instead of Dustin Ackley.  Easy as cake.  By the way, Zobrist has a .957 OPS since joining the Royals.  Thus, Zobrist would have compensated for A-Rod or Teix’s disappearing act in August. 

 

And would Upton or Heyward just end up as another massive millstone deal they would hope to dump in a few years?
 
 

 

This brings us to the debate concerning the wisdom of signing free agents to big money contracts.  Sometimes it is a good idea and sometimes it isn’t.  There is tremendous risk involved but there is upside too.  For example, the Yankees do not win the World Series in 2009 without signing Sabathia and Teix to big money contracts.

 

[jon abbey]

Yep, so when opening a new stadium, like NY in 2009, big money free agents make some sense, the rest of the time it's much less clear.

Also, even with the offense imploding and TOR getting obscenely hot, Fangraphs still has NY at 91 percent to make the playoffs as of now.

 

[jon abbey]

NY scored 67 runs in the last 9 days of July, it's easy to second guess a month later but also kind of silly IMO.

 

[Max Power]

The car analogy is stupid since you'd need three distinct spares for each of the three tires to somehow fit in the trunk. And even if you could get them to fit, they'd all be complaining about not being on the road.

 

[DanoooME]

And FSB, why didn't you post this a month ago before it happened?  Honest question.

 

[hbk72777]

There were no game changers that the Yankees could have gotten without giving up top prospects. Even those would have only been rentals.
 
For once, I'm glad they're going with youth, you can see that no matter how great a player, age slows them down near the end of the season.
 
We have a half a line-up that qualifies for the discount at the 4:30 buffet

 

[Wingack]

No trouble scoring runs this weekend. 15 runs on Friday and 20 today. Second in all of baseball in runs scored.

 

[jon abbey]

Too bad they don't get to play a NL East schedule all season. 

 

[Wingack]

Another 13 runs tonight, this team is mashing the baseball right now.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Too bad they don't get to play a NL East schedule all season. 

 
3 teams in that division will probably finish the season with over 90 losses.

 

[jon abbey]

They're all on pace for 96 losses or more as of today, the three worst teams in all of baseball. 

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm very hung up on the old Red Sox teams that mashed homeruns and never went anywhere. I remember bitching about cold weather and wind blowing in as one of the great injustices of baseball's post season.
 
No team that led their league in homeruns has won the WS in 14 years since the strike. Only 4 made the playoffs, so there's not a great corollary to the over-reliance of HR's in the post-season. 
 
As of today - Toronto, NY and Houston lead baseball in that category. I read somewhere (don't know where) an accounting of which teams scored the most runs with homeruns (i.e.relied most on the HR for scoring) but I can't find it.
 
Do these teams rely too much on the long ball?
 
Forbes has a recounting of the last 14 years.

 

[bts1981]

I'm very hung up on the old Red Sox teams that mashed homeruns and never went anywhere. I remember bitching about cold weather and wind blowing in as one of the great injustices of baseball's post season.
 
No team that led their league in homeruns has won the WS in 14 years since the strike. Only 4 made the playoffs, so there's not a great corollary to the over-reliance of HR's in the post-season. 
 
As of today - Toronto, NY and Houston lead baseball in that category. I read somewhere (don't know where) an accounting of which teams scored the most runs with homeruns (i.e.relied most on the HR for scoring) but I can't find it.
 
Do these teams rely too much on the long ball?
 
Forbes has a recounting of the last 14 years.

The 2009 Yankees led both leagues in homeruns and won the world series.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, that article is from mid-2009, so the 14 year period they're talking about is 1995-2008.