I voted that nothing happened.
I have never met someone who thinks the Patriots are guilty who accurately understands the science and can articulate his position.
95% of the people I speak to basically say that they believe the Patriots probably did it because of the circumstantial evidence or because they haven't been paying close attention to such a stupid and boring controversy. Most of these people are intelligent, well-intentioned people who are not overly biased -- several are Patriots fans. But their in-going assumption is that the Patriots did it and they have not invested time in confronting their preconceived notions. If you ask them why, the responses range from pointing at headlines to rather detailed understandings of the circumstantial evidence. None of them make any arguments about science.
Edit: I find SN's devil's advocate scenario illogical for a number of reasons.
The best argument, in my mind, is the one Chuck Schilling made while I was writing this:
Basically, the procedures were so sloppy we have to throw the science out entirely. I don't agree, but it's a reasonable position.
As for non-science, I find the Dorito Dink texts to be wholly unconvincing. He texted that he was the "deflator" in May of 2014. We have direct evidence of Brady being pissed about the balls being inflated to 16 psi during a home Jets game in like October. Obviously, when he referred to himself as the deflator he wasn't deflating footballs or they never would have been 16 psi during a home Jets game.
The Colts accusations completely fall on deaf ears for me. They thought something was up during their last game which was played in Indianapolis. Dorito Dink didn't travel to that game and the Patriots didn't have access to the balls outside the view of cameras (of which there are many, if something happened, we'd know.) Thus, if you believe the Colts, you don't believe the entire bathroom argument for the balls being deflated during the AFCCG. Now you're really on thin ice.
So, basically, either McNally just decided not to deflate the footballs for a home Jets game for no apparent reason and didn't text anything about it being his fault or the texts are irrelevant. And if you throw out the texts, you've got nothing.