#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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JimBoSox9

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
 and most non New England fans are gleefully of the mind that Brady is a proven cheater. 
 
The thing is, if you filter out the known and consistent trolls in the sports media, I really don't think this statement holds up under scrutiny, either in the press coverage or generally across social media.  Personally, my strong stable of anti-Boston midwesterner sports folks have been mostly silent the last couple days.  If anything, I'd hold up the Posnanski article as capturing the prevailing winds, that there is 'guilt' of the kind all teams are guilty of all the time, and the disproportionate/slanted process and outcome is the most notable part of the story. 
 

4 6 3 DP

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Section15Box113 said:
 
Now, that would be shocking and would reveal Goodell to be completely capricious. 
 
The report finds Kraft and BB to be untainted.  And the Commish suspends BB?  Not a chance.
 
Of course, I'm talking about him suspending TB for half a season based on...
I agree with you. But take the Sean Payton suspension. He was found not to know, but the theory was he should have. 
 

twibnotes

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jose melendez said:
The best defense for the League is "How the fuck is this good for the LEague?"  I get that individual front office dicks can hate the Pats, but how does this shitstorm possibly benefit Goodell?  I guess since he'd already made a fool of himself this goes all in?
Vast majority of the owners have fan bases who want to know why they can't win more like the pats(?)
 

Leather

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Captaincoop said:
We're really talking about a 4-8 game suspension for a guy who maybe was aware that .5 PSI of air was removed from a football?
 
And the Pats are going to lose a draft pick for that? 
 
I'm trying to think of any example in any major sport that is even remotely close to this.  Where a player was suspended for ~20% of a season for a very minor playing rules violation.  This is like suspending a baseball player for a month for using a glove that was an inch too wide.
 
In short, has the world gone mad?
 
Or like suspending Sidney Crosby for 20 games because the equipment guy made the curve in his stick 7/8"  instead of the maximum 3/4", because they found a text between the equipment guys saying "Sid likes em' curvy!  I'm gonna stick him up his butt!"
 

Ed Hillel

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4 6 3 DP said:
I agree with you. But take the Sean Payton suspension. He was found not to know, but the theory was he should have. 
 
I think the bigger issue was the coverup. Payton found out after the fact and hid/lied about it. There's nothing here to suggest Belichick did anything similar.
 
But this is Goodell, so who really knows.
 


God, if it's four games, he'd be coming back for the Sunday night game in Indianapolis.
 
What a storyline that would be.
 
But I still take the over.
 
Maybe on the initial punishment, but I'd be surprised if anything more than 2 games stood on appeal.
 

jsinger121

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Ed Hillel said:
 
I think the bigger issue was the coverup. Payton found out after the fact and hid/lied about it. There's nothing here to suggest Belichick did anything similar.
 
But this is Goodell, so who really knows.
 
 
 
 
Maybe on the initial punishment, but I'd be surprised if anything more than 2 games stood on appeal.
 
I'd be surprised if any games stood when the NFLPA is done with the NFL.
 

dcmissle

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Ed Hillel said:
 
I think the bigger issue was the coverup. Payton found out after the fact and hid/lied about it. There's nothing here to suggest Belichick did anything similar.
 
But this is Goodell, so who really knows.
 
 
Maybe on the initial punishment, but I'd be surprised if anything more than 2 games stood on appeal.
If you want to be really Machiavellian about it ... The report could be read as attempting to create friction between BB and TB. Icing on that cake would be to suspend BB but not TB.

Heads would explode; Simmons, Felger and Mazz would masturbate furiously. Carry on.
 

Return of the Dewey

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JimBoSox9 said:
 
The thing is, if you filter out the known and consistent trolls in the sports media, I really don't think this statement holds up under scrutiny, either in the press coverage or generally across social media.  Personally, my strong stable of anti-Boston midwesterner sports folks have been mostly silent the last couple days.  If anything, I'd hold up the Posnanski article as capturing the prevailing winds, that there is 'guilt' of the kind all teams are guilty of all the time, and the disproportionate/slanted process and outcome is the most notable part of the story. 
 
Jets fan here, and I can tell you that I could give a crap whether or not Brady or anyone else deflated the footballs, or if anyone is covering anything up.  In my mind, every team does something of this kind all the time.  I feel the same way about the stupid tampering rules as well.  What I find fascinating, though, when talking to Pats fans is how much many of them actually care about what the rest of the country thinks.  I get being pissed at the NFL for suspensions over this, but, beyond that, many just seemed concerned about "perception" about the Pats and Tom Brady.  If it took the Jets' deflation of footballs (and the resulting scorn of the public) to get them to the playoffs, never mind Super Bowl wins, I'd take it in a cocaine heartbeat.
 

wibi

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NortheasternPJ said:
I'm glad all those NFL scouts that passed over him were right. The guy can't throw a regulation ball! No wonder why no one wanted to draft him. 
 
Thats a great sentiment but didnt NE pass him over in the first 6 rounds of the draft before they took him with the first comp pick of the 6th round?
 

Stitch01

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Last one is not the line, scrambled on to bet no at +500
 
Theyre hard to bet because the descriptions suck, they don't discuss if the games actually have to be served.  Put some money down anyways, lets see what happens

Would guess its games served since it lets bovada play the float
 

Jettisoned

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wibi said:
 
Thats a great sentiment but didnt NE pass him over in the first 6 rounds of the draft before they took him with the first comp pick of the 6th round?
 
Why spend a first round pick when you know you can get him later?
 

Gorton Fisherman

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joe dokes said:
 
Wells doesn;t even say he "specifically told anyone." He could have been "generally aware" that they were going to make sure they were right after the check process. That's probably enough to support the conclusion.
 
OK.  Let's say you accept Wells' conclusion (and I personally do not) that Brady was "generally aware" of rule violations by McNally and/or Jastremski.   If this is the extent of Brady's involvement (and it is important to note that this is all Wells' is claiming, despite him being, in my mind, predisposed to cast Brady and the Patriots in the worst possible light), precisely what NFL rule would Brady be guilty of violating?  Does the NFL have a rule mandating that players report any rule infractions that they are aware of by other players or team personnel?  Let's say Brady was aware (as a purely hypothetical) that Nate Solder was taking steroids.  Personally witnessed him in the locker room sticking the needle in his ass.  Certainly it could be reasonably argued that having Brady's most important offensive linemen on the juice could result in a "competitive advantage" for the Patriots, and could provide a non-trivial benefit to Brady personally in his ability to play the quarterback position (arguably more of a benefit than balls that are under-inflated by half a PSI).   Is Brady under any obligation to report such misconduct to the league?  Let's say Solder is then busted, and tells the league that Tom knew about his steroid use and said nothing.  Is Brady (or anyone else the locker room who knew for that matter) liable for punishment by the league?  I'm genuinely curious.
 
EDIT: just saw that ivanhump made essentially this same exact point above.  Well said, sir. :)
 

Leather

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I am confident that BB, Brady, Kraft, et. al. recognize for the bullshit this all is. 
 

redsahx

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Some people are too far into the weeds on this thing. The verdict has been rendered and most non New England fans are gleefully of the mind that Brady is a proven cheater. Any attempt to disabuse them of that notion using facts or pointing out flaws in the Wells report is futile and will likely just end in frustration for those who think otherwise.
Well in reader comments sections in places like ESPN.com you would be right, and even within a certain segment of "professional" commentators. Spygate is proof of that. The goal can't be to win over everyone. However....

Now all that is left is the sentencing stage. At this point, those hoping for some form of vindication for Brady and the Patriots ought to come to terms with the idea that it will never happen.
...the results of the sentencing phase, and Brady's response certainly will and can shift things at least for a significant portion. The sentencing, whether harsh or lenient, will be a hotly contested debate topic, and perhaps this is where Brady himself will emerge and finally give his full account. In a strange way, the greatest long term damage to Brady might be if Goodell doesn't suspend him, and therefore Brady has no reason to fight it and just moves on. People will be outraged at Goodell, and assume Brady got away with it.
 

Ed Hillel

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wibi said:
 
Thats a great sentiment but didnt NE pass him over in the first 6 rounds of the draft before they took him with the first comp pick of the 6th round?
 
I think he was joking. Nobody is really going to deny that the Patriots got mostly lucky in drafting him, though I certainly give credit to Belichick for how he handled Brady after that (holding 4 QBs, allowing him to remain the starter when at the time highest paid NFL player ever Bledsoe came back, etc.).
 

dcmissle

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Gorton Fisherman said:
 
OK.  Let's say you accept Wells' conclusion (and I personally do not) that Brady was "generally aware" of rule violations by McNally and/or Jastremski.   If this is the extent of Brady's involvement (and it is important to note that this is all Wells' is claiming, despite him being, in my mind, predisposed to cast Brady and the Patriots in the worst possible light), precisely what NFL rule would Brady be guilty of violating?  Does the NFL have a rule mandating that players report any rule infractions that they are aware of by other players or team personnel?  Let's say Brady was aware (as a purely hypothetical) that Nate Solder was taking steroids.  Personally witnessed him in the locker room sticking the needle in his ass.  Certainly it could be reasonably argued that having Brady's most important offensive linemen on the juice could result in a "competitive advantage" for the Patriots, and could provide a non-trivial benefit to Brady personally in his ability to play the quarterback position (arguably more of a benefit than balls that are under-inflated by half a PSI).   Is Brady under any obligation to report such misconduct to the league?  Let's say Solder is then busted, and tells the league that Tom knew about his steroid use and said nothing.  Is Brady (or anyone else the locker room who knew for that matter) liable for punishment by the league?  I'm genuinely curious.
That is correct and that's why no suspension will stand unless decision maker buys that he obstructed the investigation, which is why Wells put that allegation in. Some of us have been saying this for days.

Keith Olbermann can operate on his level. Tribunals do not.
 

TheoShmeo

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Return of the Dewey said:
 
Jets fan here, and I can tell you that I could give a crap whether or not Brady or anyone else deflated the footballs, or if anyone is covering anything up.  In my mind, every team does something of this kind all the time.  I feel the same way about the stupid tampering rules as well.  What I find fascinating, though, when talking to Pats fans is how much many of them actually care about what the rest of the country thinks.  I get being pissed at the NFL for suspensions over this, but, beyond that, many just seemed concerned about "perception" about the Pats and Tom Brady.  If it took the Jets' deflation of footballs (and the resulting scorn of the public) to get them to the playoffs, never mind Super Bowl wins, I'd take it in a cocaine heartbeat.
I'm not quibbling with you but your last line, well intended, may explain why some Pats fans act the way they do.
 
Deflated balls had nothing to do with the Pats success.  The suggestion, or implication, or even small hint, makes me laugh.
 

Gorton Fisherman

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dcmissle said:
That is correct and that's why no suspension will stand unless decision maker buys that he obstructed the investigation, which is why Wells put that allegation in. Some of us have been saying this for days.
 
I agree, although while Wells' did complain about this, he didn't go so far as to list "obstruction of the investigation" as a crime Brady was guilty of in his conclusion (which again I believe was designed to make Brady and Patriots look as bad as possible).   Of course that isn't to say Goodell couldn't pick up on this and use it as the primary rationale for punishing Brady excessively, since the rest of the case is so paper-thin.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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JimBoSox9 said:
 
The thing is, if you filter out the known and consistent trolls in the sports media, I really don't think this statement holds up under scrutiny, either in the press coverage or generally across social media.  Personally, my strong stable of anti-Boston midwesterner sports folks have been mostly silent the last couple days.  If anything, I'd hold up the Posnanski article as capturing the prevailing winds, that there is 'guilt' of the kind all teams are guilty of all the time, and the disproportionate/slanted process and outcome is the most notable part of the story. 
Well its a small sample size but of the people I have discussed this with in my neck of the woods (Bay Area), most got their "facts" from the media rather than the report and are of the mind that Brady is guilty. Even those who acknowledge how silly this whole thing is think that Brady should have owned up to it back in January. There really is no convincing them otherwise.

We can discuss flaws in the report and evidence that may vindicate Brady/the Patriots all we want here but history has been decided from a broader perspective.

Brady cheated and he was caught. The rest is just sour grapes from his fans and apologists. End of story.
 

jsinger121

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MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
 
Isn't the NFLPA about as strong as wet cardboard?
They got Jonathan Vilma's year long suspension wiped away. I feel they have the ability to do the same for any Brady suspension.
 

joe dokes

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Yossarian said:
I know next to nothing about internal corporate investigations or the like, so maybe this is common practice in that world.  But I am bothered by one point that keeps getting brought up -- that "more probable than not" is not a troubling standard by which to judge guilt because that's essentially the same standard--preponderance of the evidence--that is followed in civil litigation.
 
That's true enough, but one of the reasons that standard is followed in the court system is because it's been arrived at through the adversary process.  The evidence of the plaintiff has been tested through (hopefully) rigorous cross-examination by parties with a strong interest in testing it, experts presented by one side are frequently offset or challenged by competing experts, and then the factfinder evaluates everything they've just seen and heard -- only deciding at THAT point if there's 51 percent evidence that the plaintiff has proved its case.  
 
This "process," such as it is, features none of that.  No one from the Patriots has had any opportunity to challenge the expert conclusions, poke holes in witness testimony, or subject the evidence or conclusions drawn to any kind of pushback before the "verdict" was reached.  As I said, maybe that's commonplace when dealing with corporate or internal investigations, but it has nothing to do with the standard of proof set out in litigation -- so it shouldn't be defended that way.
 
This is a superb point.
 
 
Actually, this *is* how most corporate internal investigations work.  (this isn;t quite that because its not the NFL investigating the NFL office, but its close enough).  If a complaint of some company rules violation is lodged against you, the investigator will talk to everyone, sometimes more than once, gather non-talking evidence -- files, emails, etc, -- and either make a finding or not, depending on what they were taksed with.  There is no cross-examination, or confrontation of witnesses, or opportunity to even "see what the other guy said."
 

Bleedred

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dcmissle said:
That is correct and that's why no suspension will stand unless decision maker buys that he obstructed the investigation, which is why Wells put that allegation in. Some of us have been saying this for days.

Keith Olbermann can operate on his level. Tribunals do not.
What if they suspend him for obstructing the investigation and blatantly lying about certain things (knowing one of the Jamokes).  Is that even feasible?  i.e.  Brady lied to the investigators, and thus, he is suspended for ____ games.  Fined for ball deflation.  
 

dcmissle

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jsinger121 said:
 
Florio is the biggest piece of garbage.
That is his legal hat talking, not a League source.

The guys I'm following are Schefter & Mort.
 

dcmissle

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MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
 
Isn't the NFLPA about as strong as wet cardboard?
No, their track record is pretty good. Kessler handles these cases well.
 

dcmissle

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Bleedred said:
What if they suspend him for obstructing the investigation and blatantly lying about certain things (knowing one of the Jamokes).  Is that even feasible?  i.e.  Brady lied to the investigators, and thus, he is suspended for ____ games.  Fined for ball deflation.  
If you lie you are stupid -- and screwed. Where is the evidence he lied?
 

joe dokes

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Gorton Fisherman said:
 
I agree, although while Wells' did complain about this, he didn't go so far as to list "obstruction of the investigation" as a crime Brady was guilty of in his conclusion (which again I believe was designed to make Brady and Patriots look as bad as possible).   Of course that isn't to say Goodell couldn't pick up on this and use it as the primary rationale for punishing Brady excessively, since the rest of the case is so paper-thin.
 
If the *conclusion*  -- apart from the narrative in the report -- was designed to make him look as bad as possible, then "generally aware" was a piss-poor way of doing that. And it certainly didn't make the team look bad, as Kraft and BB were excluded from wrongdoing.
 

Bleedred

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dcmissle said:
If you lie you are stupid -- and screwed. Where is the evidence he lied?
That he didn't know who McNally was?   Is that in the report or was that a throw a way line by him in an interview?
 

Leather

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It won't happen, but what would happen if they vacated the Pats title?
 
I think the NFL would lose about 50% of their fans in New England in one fell swoop.
 

Tito's Pullover

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I hate the idea of "vacating" a title, championship, or record, in general.  Not just in this case, in any case in any sport at any level.  We're supposed to just pretend that UMass didn't make the final four in 1996 - was it a final three that year?  Did Kentucky get a bye in the semifinals?  Did nobody win the Tour de France for seven consecutive years?  It's downright silly.
 

pappymojo

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Is there anything to disprove the following narrative as what might have happened? 

The balls in the Jets game are over-inflated.  As a potential event, this has some validity based on Aaron Rogers' comments. 

Brady complains to Doofus 1.  Doofus 1 instructs Doofus 2 to notify the officials that the Patriots want their balls at the lowest accepted level.  Neither Doofus 1 nor Doofus 2 takes steps to deflate the balls below the 12.5 level prior to turning the balls over.  They just tell the refs that is what Brady wants. 
 
Balls continue to feel stiff to Brady.  Brady complains to Doofus 1.  Doofus 1 and Doofus 2 laugh at Brady for being a primadonna.  Doofus 1 instructs Doofus 2 to deflate the balls prior to turning them over to the officials.  Doofus 2 does this.  This is not against the rules.  Doofus 2 starts calling himself the deflator.  Doofus 2 and Doofus 1 make jokes about Brady.  No rules have been broken.  Brady has not done anything wrong. 
 
Colts complain about deflated balls. 
 
Officials measure the game balls prior to the Patriots-Colts playoff game.  The NFL had created new crews for the playoffs so some of these guys have never worked together before.  This causes some confusion over responsibilities.  In addition, due to the Packers-Seahawks game running long, the start of the Patriots-Colts game is delayed.  This also adds to the confusion.  The officials measure the balls before the game but do not record the numbers.*  It is suspected that the Colts balls started the game a full 1 psi higher than the Patriots balls.

The officials room is crowded.  Doofus 2 finds himself with time to kill before the game starts due to the delayed start.  He needs to piss, and he decides to go to the bathroom somewhere with some privacy.  He doesn't want to bother the officials. 
 
The game starts. 

One of the officials steals a game ball.  The officials notice the ball is missing.

Doofus 2 tries to help out by grabbing a ball but grabs a kicker's ball.  This causes additional confusion and adds fuel to the suspicion that the Patriots are up to something.

During halftime, the officials measure the game balls again.  Official 1 measures the Patriots balls.  Official 2 measures the Patriots balls.  They start to run out of time.  Official 1 measures four of the Colts balls.  Official 2 measures four of the Colts balls. 

They can't figure out why the numbers are different between the measurements Official 1 took and the measurement Official 2 took.  They also can't figure out why the Colts balls do not seem as inflated as the Patriots balls. 

Even though no rules were broken, this is their smoking gun.  They are off to the races. 
 
* while we may be inclined to trust the officials on their numbers.  They are, like the rest of us, humans.  As such, they make mistakes too.  Any suspect numbers on the back end could easily be attributed to a mistake that was made but not recorded on the front end. 
 

redsahx

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That he didn't know who McNally was?   Is that in the report or was that a throw a way line by him in an interview?
I thought it was that he didn't know his name or know him personally, which is plausible given that A) Jastremski was the guy Brady dealt with and B) McNally was a part-time employee who was only there on game days and hanging out in the officials locker room, not the Pats locker room. I could be wrong but my impression was that Brady would use Jastremski as his relay point ("make sure your guys know this is how I want the balls", or "make sure your guys tell the refs that we want these at 12.5" etc.)
 

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Three games leads into the Pats bye week, gives them two weeks to prep for Brady's return in Week 5 at Cowboys.
 
I apologize if this has been suggested already.
 

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I think Roger has a sticky situation when it comes to discipline. If he levies discipline against both the Pats and Brady - we can assume Brady fights It via the union bargained process. A fairly reasonable outcome of that might possibly be a report similar to the Rice report that finds the science numbers built on faulty assumptions, the digital communication as circumstancual.

At that point Roger/NFL look bad for punishing the Pats for what is demonstrated to be for "more likely than not". While that standard is fine by league standards public opinion holds them to be morons.
 

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drleather2001 said:
It won't happen, but what would happen if they vacated the Pats title?
 
I think the NFL would lose about 50% of their fans in New England in one fell swoop.
 
Massive lawsuits and the league office losing the support of the owners. As much as GM's and coaches are cheering that the league "finally got those mother fuckers!' the last thing that the 32 people that are actually in charge of the league want to do is set a precedent that a team could lose a championship over a minor rules violation.
 

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I hope its 4, so the players union can attack them like its scorched earth. 
 
And back to the halftime ball issues. The reason they only measured the 4 Colts balls, is because they were all above on one of the gauges. All Pats balls were below, 3/4 Colts below on one, 4/4 Colts above on one. They had what they needed, Pats balls under, Colts balls over. Refs didn't envision the level of scrutiny either.