#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[BroodsSexton]

 
My experience at firms doing white collar work and (both related and separately) at firms hiring expert witnesses in cases with media scrutiny is that they always consider the possibility of information leaking, both as a 'sword' to get messages out and a 'shield' to protect against messages.  Your mileage may vary.

 
It's an awfully clumsy way to leak the investigation, and what's the point of the leak?  Of course they'll be considering the science.  It was central to Belichick's explanation.  It just doesn't make sense to me as a designed leak.
 
Now, if the message was designed to suggest that PW had found no wrongdoing, or expanded the investigation in a different direction, I'd be more open to it.  Anything is possible, but to me this is just a routine fuck up.

 

[Filet-O-Fisk]

The problem is the referee didn't check the balls prior to the game. The NFL rule doesn't even mandate that this take place. This whole investigation is a dog and pony show because the NFL doesn't want it to come out that the reason the Patriots used deflated balls is because those deflated balls were approved by the officials.  
 
Imagine you go to a restaurant and half the time the owner is there and he gives you a free appetizer.  What the NFL and media seems to want us to believe is that Belichick (or Brady) rejected the free appetizer and then, later, broke into the kitchen to steal said appetizer. 

 

[m0ckduck]

I don't doubt at least some (maybe many) of the owners feel that way.  But why would the league office feel that way?  It makes no sense to want to punish your franchisees, especially the successful ones.  As in zero sense.  A first grade student would know better than that.  If true, it's then blatantly obvious that Goodell does not know how to position an organization for long term success.  

 
It still surprises me that the owners and league would want to live in a world where all holy hell breaks loose the moment there are unproven allegations of a team/QB bending a rule that other teams/QBs have freely admitted to bending in the past, and that was never considered a significant until the moment it was allegedly broken. I get that other teams dislike and resent the Pats... but that just seems like a really chaotic, unstable, unpredictable environment in which to do business. I also get that the league is making short-term money off this shitstorm of dubious publicity, but -- again-- I would expect the rich old dudes that run most of these franchises to prefer the rule of law to this circus. Maybe there's just a prevailing belief that Pats = unique cheaters and 'it can't happen to my team', but the whole recklessness of this episode is hard for me to square. 

 

[C4CRVT]

The SoSH lawyer contingent has taken over the thread.
 
That's a good sign for this contrived controversy and a bad sign for those of us looking here for entertainment.
 
And for those looking for some wide scale vindication about the false allegations, good luck. Good Morning America and NPR are probably not going to run the less-sensational "oh wait, there was nothing to see here after all" story. So as has been stated hundreds of times elsewhere here, get used to being the bad guys and getting accused of rooting for cheaters.
 
All things pass and there will be a time in our of our fan lives when we'll wish the Pats were good enough again for people to vilify them. Soak all of this up while you can.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

 
It's an awfully clumsy way to leak the investigation, and what's the point of the leak?  Of course they'll be considering the science.  It was central to Belichick's explanation.  It just doesn't make sense to me as a designed leak.
 
Now, if the message was designed to suggest that PW had found no wrongdoing, or expanded the investigation in a different direction, I'd be more open to it.  Anything is possible, but to me this is just a routine fuck up.

 
Again, you are much more comfortable assuming we have all the info and can make a firm conclusion than I am---which is fine.
 
If the problem you were trying to manage, as the lawyers to the NFL on this matter, was rebutting a perception (and a direct accusation from Bob Kraft) that you hadn't explored the science of the matter at all, you might conclude that going to Bob Kraft's alma matter was useful.   You might do it in a way you knew had a material chance of becoming public rather than the way you do it when you want it to stay private. And you always can choose to leak to a newspaper the next day that 'Columbia experts were contacted' if the leak doesn't otherwise come out.  High-profile white collar cases are (for most firms, not quite all as some don't trust the media play) parallel PR and legal activities.  All the firms playing this game at a high level know this and manage it accordingly.  If we want to understand what they are doing, we need to keep in mind that this is the case.
 
That said, I'll repeat that I think it is likely just a screw-up....but I think we do best thinking about possibilities and weighing them when we really don't know what's going on, so I threw out another one that I could imagine as well.

 

[simplyeric]

We know for a fact footballs do not retain their game-starting PSI after similar games in the cold, because science. Every football ever made ever in the history of football games experiences a decrease when moving out to the cold.  I am well aware of the media's ability to manipulate opinion, but I am honestly amazed and depressed at the power of the media to manipulate people to ignore basic known facts of the universe.  

 
I think some people are asking a slightly different question than the PV=nRT thing:
 
a. does normal use during the game result in some loss of actual air in the ball, thus changing the math of the equation (n is reduced).  Basically, do the balls leak a little when hundreds of pounds of weight is piled on top of them?
 
b. does use during the game (cold, wet, pressure from "a" above) change the dynamics of the envelope, thus changing the "V" in the equation?
 
 
If a little bit of air is squeezed out, and the bladder/ball becomes a little more stretchy because of all the impact, then you'd find a slight ultimate loss of pressure that is not accounted for by the ideal gas law, but in no way contradicts it, because it is generally unrelated to the relationship between the temperature and the kinetic energy of constant quantity of gas molecules.

 

[Infield Infidel]

 
All this stuff about Kraft and Goodell being homeboys makes me wonder if Goodell is basically being kneecapped by some yet unnamed party in the league office.  It's a $44 million dollar a year job.  If Goodell is ousted tomorrow who is on the short list to replace him?  The leaks and and undermining of the Patriots could be as simple as a coup driven by someone in the league office that has an incentive to for Goodell to ride into the sunset and assume the big seat.  
 
I know others have said this already, but what the hell.

 
Gregg Levy finished second to Goodell in the last commissioner election, and IIRC is still lead outside counsel for the NFL. he's almost certainly not involved in this but he would certainly be a top candidate if the owners were tired of Goodell's ineptitude
 
edit - link http://www.cov.com/glevy/

 

[Yossarian]

I really do think there's an understandable tendency to give the owners too much credit (I mean generally, not just in this instance).  These are extremely wealthy, highly competitive guys used to getting their own way, in some cases with demonstrated records of incompetence, mismanagement, and impatience, who have no particular expertise in either science or good investigative technique, who are now seeing cheating allegations launched against their most consistently successful competitor. I don't see any great reason why, as a group, they're any less prone to bloodlust or idiocy on this thing than anyone else would be -- or that they're currently capable of realizing they might be doing long-term damage to their own interests in the interest of satisfying short-term anger or jealousy.   

 

[geoffm33]

No matter who the "expert" is in the end, if they actually do the experiment, the psi will change. It has to. No credible scientist will be able to do this test, and have it come out publically that the psi didn't change.
 
We need to stop getting worried at every "leak". They are all coming from one side. Unless they have an admission or some smoking gun, they simply can't do much more than a token fine for this. Owners can bitch and moan about NE all they want, but behind closed doors I would imagine it's different. Every team has things they do that the league looks into. They can't be all for throwing the book at this then when it's their turn cry about the unfairness.

EXCEPT if they are performing the experiment under the conditions set forth by the NFL. If the NFL says (via the refs) that the balls were X PSI 2 hours before gametime where the temp was Y and then measured again at halftime after having been in the refs locker room for 15 minutes at temp Y, then the results may lean towards manual deflation. 
 
I don't believe for a second the balls reached equilibrium in the refs locker room or anywhere close to it. They would have had to get ALL the balls to the locker room, tested, re-inflate the Pats balls, bag them back up and get back to the field*, along with whatever other half-time tasks the refs have to do. No way they spent 3/4 of the half time waiting for the balls to warm up.
 
* Yes, the 2nd half was delayed waiting for the balls, but not by much.

 

[Ed Hillel]

EXCEPT if they are performing the experiment under the conditions set forth by the NFL. If the NFL says (via the refs) that the balls were X PSI 2 hours before gametime where the temp was Y and then measured again at halftime after having been in the refs locker room for 15 minutes at temp Y, then the results may lean towards manual deflation. 
 
I don't believe for a second the balls reached equilibrium in the refs locker room or anywhere close to it. They would have had to get ALL the balls to the locker room, tested, re-inflate the Pats balls, bag them back up and get back to the field*, along with whatever other half-time tasks the refs have to do. No way they spent 3/4 of the half time waiting for the balls to warm up.
 
* Yes, the 2nd half was delayed waiting for the balls, but not by much.

 
The balls not reaching equilibrium would also explain why, if re-inflated to within the legal limit at halftime, they remained within the legal limit after the game. At that point the PSI inside the ball relative to the legal limit would be adjusted to the outside conditions, whereas before the game they would have been inflated relative to the indoor temperature.  

 

[weeba]

PSI calculator from BU prof:
 
 
http://physics.bu.edu/~schmaltz/deflate.html

 

[BroodsSexton]

The SoSH lawyer contingent has taken over the thread.
 
That's a good sign for this contrived controversy and a bad sign for those of us looking here for entertainment.

 
Hey, that's not fair.  I posted the Jordan/Bird clip.  If that's not entertainment...
 

 
Again, you are much more comfortable assuming we have all the info and can make a firm conclusion than I am---which is fine.
 
If the problem you were trying to manage, as the lawyers to the NFL on this matter, was rebutting a perception (and a direct accusation from Bob Kraft) that you hadn't explored the science of the matter at all, you might conclude that going to Bob Kraft's alma matter was useful.   You might do it in a way you knew had a material chance of becoming public rather than the way you do it when you want it to stay private. And you always can choose to leak to a newspaper the next day that 'Columbia experts were contacted' if the leak doesn't otherwise come out.  High-profile white collar cases are (for most firms, not quite all as some don't trust the media play) parallel PR and legal activities.  All the firms playing this game at a high level know this and manage it accordingly.  If we want to understand what they are doing, we need to keep in mind that this is the case.
 
That said, I'll repeat that I think it is likely just a screw-up....but I think we do best thinking about possibilities and weighing them when we really don't know what's going on, so I threw out another one that I could imagine as well.

 
Maybe Metzger is a Patriots fan and the whole thing was made up!  And you know who else is a Columbia alumni?  Whittaker Chambers!  Maybe this is a subtle commentary on Spygate!
 
Seriously, I have a hard time envisioning Paul Weiss leaking the investigation in this manner, which looks like amateur-hour sloppiness and lack of attention to confidentiality, when there isn't a clear reason to do so.  Nobody has accused Paul Weiss of ignoring the science.  They have promised a full investigation in the wake of Belichick's press conference, pointing to the science.  And just the other day, their lead partner asked for silence on the matter.
 
But I'll leave this alone for now.  I still think there's an associate out there who is really, really, uncomfortable this morning...

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Chris Long kills it:
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deflategate/

 

[mascho]

 
Hey, that's not fair.  I posted the Jordan/Bird clip.  If that's not entertainment...
 
 
Maybe Metzger is a Patriots fan and the whole thing was made up!  And you know who else is a Columbia alumni?  Whittaker Chambers!  Maybe this is a subtle commentary on Spygate!
 
Seriously, I have a hard time envisioning Paul Weiss leaking the investigation in this manner, which looks like amateur-hour sloppiness and lack of attention to confidentiality, when there isn't a clear reason to do so.  Nobody has accused Paul Weiss of ignoring the science.  They have promised a full investigation in the wake of Belichick's press conference, pointing to the science.  And just the other day, their lead partner asked for silence on the matter.
 
But I'll leave this alone for now.  I still think there's an associate out there who is really, really, uncomfortable this morning...

 
If an associate is comfortable any morning, someone isn't doing the whole partner thing right. 

 

[Byrdbrain]

 
 
If we assume that all NFL locker rooms are 70 degrees then is there a specific temperature that we can assume any ball starting at 13.5 PSI would naturally fall below 12.5psi?  What I am getting at is wouldn't it be possible to fairly easily come up with the number of games per season in which the outside temperature was cold enough that the ball was without a doubt below the league minimum air pressure while the game was going on?  Even giving all teams the benefit of the doubt that they all started at the maximum of 13.5.  Is that too simple of a view?  Are there other confounders that would make this more complicated?  

To answer the bolded a ball at 13.5 psi dropping to 12.5 psi is a 3.5% drop(yes using absolute pressure and assuming 14.7 psi atmosphere). Assuming constant volume that means the ball would drop to 12.5 psi at 50F. So anything below 50F and the ball is technically out of spec.

 

[geoffm33]

 
The balls not reaching equilibrium would also explain why, if re-inflated to within the legal limit at halftime, they remained within the legal limit after the game. At that point the PSI inside the ball relative to the legal limit would be adjusted to the outside conditions, whereas before the game they would have been inflated relative to the indoor temperature.  

 
Yes, good point. I also think, as I mentioned up thread, that the 12 Pats balls sitting in the (canvas?) closed ball bag for the trip from the sidelines to the locker room helped insulate the balls from the indoor ambient temperature and would prolong the climb to equilibrium. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Michael McCann weighs in with his opinion in the 3rd copied tweet.

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw 19m19 minutes ago
NFL will hire a physicist to verify Patriots ball study: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/sports/football/nfl-investigator-seeks-to-consult-columbia-physicist-over-patriots-deflated-footballs.html?ref=sports&smid%3D=tw-nytsports&_r=0 …. Legal reasons for NFL to do this: http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/26/deflategate-equipment-manager-new-england-patriots …
 

 

Kevin Paul Dupont ‏@GlobeKPD 11m11 minutes ago
@McCannSportsLaw @Sportsman2001 NFL has power to make it all go away. Which is its pattern behavior, enabled by billions in revenue.
 

 

Michael McCann ‏@McCannSportsLaw 2m2 minutes ago
@GlobeKPD @Sportsman2001 And that is probably what will happen here. An investigation followed by a finding of minor/inconsequential fault.
 

 

[CantKeepmedown]

Isn't today Roger's "State of the League" speech?

Friday, I believe.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

PSI calculator from BU prof:
 
 
http://physics.bu.edu/~schmaltz/deflate.html

 
It's interesting, his calculator for my experiment last night (start at 13.0 psi at 71 degrees and finish at 39 degrees) gives a psi of 11.33.  In two trials with an actual football, my results were 11.0, and while this is within the margin where I'm feeling good about my experiment, it was also unmistakably lower and over the course of the evening I developed confidence in my gauge.  Not saying that I was exactly starting at 13.0 or finishing at 11.0, but that the drop itself was 2 psi.  
 
It could be that my temperature measurements were wrong, though not by much.  It also could be that the hand pump adds some heat to the air inside the football, although I did let it sit the second time before doing the experiment.  Makes me wonder if there's something else very minor going on with a football and its construction or something that changes things a little.

 

[Ed Hillel]

PSI calculator from BU prof:
 
 
http://physics.bu.edu/~schmaltz/deflate.html

 
Interesting, but it appears to be missing the caveat on the effects of water on the football, correct?

 

[Steve Dillard]

Calling to try and find the most qualified person, rather than calling a house-chosen expert, is good news. Even if the secretary/professor turned it down.
If PW is hiring smart people, the right questions (like those on the board) will be asked.
If PW has an agenda, they are not looking for an expert, they are hiring "former equipment manager of X team" to explain football dynamics.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Apologies if this article was already shared...pretty great defense of the Pats

http://ryan-sawtelle.squarespace.com/web-log/2015/1/23/the-reason-you-hate-the-patriots-is-because-they-win

 
 
Great line in there:  You care more about the Patriots being accused of cheating than other teams actually cheating.

 

[Byrdbrain]

 
Interesting, but it appears to be missing the caveat on the effects of water on the football, correct?

Yes this is purely using the ideal gas law, no other effects accounted for.
 
Edit:He does mention that in the footnotes though.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Michael McCann weighs in with his opinion in the 3rd copied tweet.
 
 

 
It's the NFL that helped make this such a spectacle in the first place, but cool story. I also enjoy the intimation that the NFL has to stoop to using science to get the Pats off the hook.
 
I do fully expect that this will be the prevailing thought if they are not severely punished, however. That, and Kraft bullied the NFL into this, etc. Ignore Kraft's reaction to Spygate and continued support after that.

 

[ifmanis5]

Funny how easy it is to show how someone can be guilty when you are working backwards from the conclusion that they are guilty. This is how you get the terrible fumble "study" and the red herring tests proving that 11 balls in 90 seconds is possible. This is how two innocent vaguely Middle Eastern looking kids end up on a newspaper cover labelled terrorists after Reddit detectives decided they seemed off and were definitely carrying a pressure cooker.

Love this post. I'm going to buy everybody one of these:

 

[Marciano490]

 
Interesting, but it appears to be missing the caveat on the effects of water on the football, correct?

 
See (d).

 

[geoffm33]

Love this post. I'm going to buy everybody one of these:

 
 
I've watched that movie a thousand times. Just now realized it says "Loose one Turn".

 

[Ed Hillel]

 
See (d).

 
I believe that's more about the air quality than the physical change the rain would have on the football itself.

 

[simplyeric]

 
See (d).

 
didn't even think of condensation inside the ball.  That's significant, especially if it was inflated with particularly humid air that you might find around locker rooms, shower, etc.
 
(no I don't mean "in the shower" just that the moisture content of the room-temp air could be higher than one might tend to think)

 

[Devizier]

I hope the league office has taken this into their consideration:
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXjCPPjH4mo

 

[Marciano490]

 
I believe that's more about the air quality than the physical change the rain would have on the football itself.

 
I'm an idiot when it comes to this stuff, but I thought the humidity meant the effect of rain on the ball, no? 

 

[simplyeric]

 
I believe that's more about the air quality than the physical change the rain would have on the football itself.

 
that would be more (a)
that the rain would change how the vessel behaves.  The only relevant change here would be the volume, either by shrinkage or change in elasticity.
 
Cold water on the ball would not, over time, change the "delta T" involved in the equation (although it would change how quickly the delta was eliminated)

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I have a bit of experience with investigations, and there are definitely at least two types.  In the first, you're trying to find out what the truth is and you're following your leads wherever they take you.  In the second, you are acting more like a scientist -- starting with a hypothesis and seeing if it holds up.  The problem with the second kind is that you can very easily fall into the trap that scientists who are paid grant money often do.  Testing a hypothesis should be done with agnosticism with respect to whether it will be proven or disproven.  But of course, it never really works like that.  The second kind of "investigation" merely becomes doing what a prosecutor often does -- trying to gather evidence to prove your hypothesis.
 
I'm trying to decipher the news about the call to Columbia to see if it gives us any clues.  I conclude it doesn't.  Far more ominous, though, is Schefter's comment yesterday that the league is "entrenched."  I don't know who his source is, but to me this is the most troubling thing I've heard, because being the entire concept of doing an "investigation" is completely inconsistent with "being entrenched."  In the end, Wells has his own reputation on the line, in an area where he knows that everyone is paying attention, but I'm not sure how much solace to take in that.  At least he's calling scientists, which is a good start.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Chris Long kills it:
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deflategate/

Okay so we love Chris Long now.

Also - I couldn't help thinking this morning how BB, et al, would be reacting to this if the roles were reversed. If, say, the Colts had drubbed the Patriots in the AFCCG and there was all this swirling around about a competitive advantage, cheating, etc... While I certainly acknowledge the general sense from Indy that the Pats deserved to win, I think it would be even stronger in the vice-versa world. I think Belichick would be EMBARRASSED to let it fly, even for a second, that the Colts win should be somehow "tainted" and I suspect he would be pretty outspoken about that. We lost. They played better, they coached better. The balls are irrelevant.

I guess my point is that that one more thing I'm offended by is the relative silence, let alone the piling on, emanating from the NFL community in general. I know why it's happening - we win, we're dicks, take your pick - but I think it represents one more example of counterintuitivity: Warts and all, Bill Belichick is, in reality, a far better sport and a better guy than the vast majority of folks who populate this pathetic effing league.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Here's the other funny thing. Even if we assume every football was 2PSI below (which we have conflicting reports on and I don't believe, but w/e) and that only the IDG applies and there were no other environmental effects, I guess the theory would have to be that the Patriots inflated the ball like .65 PSI each. That seems absurd, though ymmv.

 

[Devizier]

 
Interesting, but it appears to be missing the caveat on the effects of water on the football, correct?

 
the assumptions are
 
1) the number of gas molecules does not change inside the football (this is probably untrue, because there's no way that a valve in an NFL football is a "perfect" valve.
2) the volume of the bladder does not change when the football is placed under duress.
 
DDB's experiment shows that assumption (1) is probably wrong and maybe significantly so.
 
If the NFL were serious about this, they would monitor all of their game-used footballs for the course of an entire season and determine what factors lead to a change of pressure inside the ball. You know, science.

 

[simplyeric]

 
I'm an idiot when it comes to this stuff, but I thought the humidity meant the effect of rain on the ball, no? 

 
The (d) in question is the condensation of water vapor inside the ball, a phase state transition from gas to liquid.  This would reduce the pressure, because the liquid water takes up a lot less space than the vapor/gas.  So, you are reducing the "n" of the equation (there are now fewer gas molecules in the vessel).  This is counteracted by a slght reduction in the interior volume of the vessel, but I'm thinking that the difference would be fractional.  
 
It would happen because warm moist air is inside the ball, and as the interior surface of the ball becomes cold, that moisture would condense.

 

[jimbobim]

http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/01/28/mike-florio-on-dc-suspensions-would-be-on-the-table-for-deflategate/
 
I know others expressed their disgust with Florio up thread, but my hate for Gooddell and the league office grows by the day. A refusal to even consider anything else and of course stressing suspensions are on the table while stressing they really don't need proof. Just mind blowing.
 
If Roger continues down this garbage road Kraft should go nuclear. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Okay so we love Chris Long now.

Also - I couldn't help thinking this morning how BB, et al, would be reacting to this if the roles were reversed. If, say, the Colts had drubbed the Patriots in the AFCCG and there was all this swirling around about a competitive advantage, cheating, etc... While I certainly acknowledge the general sense from Indy that the Pats deserved to win, I think it would be even stronger in the vice-versa world. I think Belichick would be EMBARRASSED to let it fly, even for a second, that the Colts win should be somehow "tainted" and I suspect he would be pretty outspoken about that. We lost. They played better, they coached better. The balls are irrelevant.

I guess my point is that that one more thing I'm offended by is the relative silence, let alone the piling on, emanating from the NFL community in general. I know why it's happening - we win, we're dicks, take your pick - but I think it represents one more example of counterintuitivity: Warts and all, Bill Belichick is, in reality, a far better sport and a better guy than the vast majority of folks who populate this pathetic effing league.

 Don't you remember last year with the pick play that Welker made that knocked Talib out?  He called it the most egregious play he's ever seen or something to that effect.  But, this one I'm not sure he would make a big deal about because at the outset of this ordeal he had no idea about PSI.

 

[Marciano490]

 
The (d) in question is the condensation of water vapor inside the ball, a phase state transition from gas to liquid.  This would reduce the pressure, because the liquid water takes up a lot less space than the vapor/gas.  So, you are reducing the "n" of the equation (there are now fewer gas molecules in the vessel).  This is counteracted by a slght reduction in the interior volume of the vessel, but I'm thinking that the difference would be fractional.  
 
It would happen because warm moist air is inside the ball, and as the interior surface of the ball becomes cold, that moisture would condense.

 
Thanks.  I have to say, I have nothing but respect for people who 'get' this stuff.  I'd have an easier time reading Sanskrit.

 

[bankshot1]

I have a bit of experience with investigations, and there are definitely at least two types.  In the first, you're trying to find out what the truth is and you're following your leads wherever they take you.  In the second, you are acting more like a scientist -- starting with a hypothesis and seeing if it holds up.  The problem with the second kind is that you can very easily fall into the trap that scientists who are paid grant money often do.  Testing a hypothesis should be done with agnosticism with respect to whether it will be proven or disproven.  But of course, it never really works like that.  The second kind of "investigation" merely becomes doing what a prosecutor often does -- trying to gather evidence to prove your hypothesis.
 
I'm trying to decipher the news about the call to Columbia to see if it gives us any clues.  I conclude it doesn't.  Far more ominous, though, is Schefter's comment yesterday that the league is "entrenched."  I don't know who his source is, but to me this is the most troubling thing I've heard, because being the entire concept of doing an "investigation" is completely inconsistent with "being entrenched."  In the end, Wells has his own reputation on the line, in an area where he knows that everyone is paying attention, but I'm not sure how much solace to take in that.  At least he's calling scientists, which is a good start.

I've had an argument with a friend (Giant fan) he insists the NFL has to find evidence the Pats cheated. I told him, no the investigation has to find the truth about the Pats, Colts, refs. and then issue a finding of fact.I'm concerned the NFL as you insinuate, is more invested in proving the Pats cheated, and not finding the truth.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Chris Long kills it:
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deflategate/

 
 
In addition to the content, it's nicely written. Wow, have to thank Jeter now.
 
 
 
Regarding the league being "entrenched," it seems like they tested the balls at halftime with the Pats balls under 12.5 and the Colts somewhere in the legal range and concluded immediately that they had conclusive evidence of tampering. They are resisting moving off of that position. 

 

[Valek123]

Such an easy solution going forward, I mean where in life have we heard about a technology that could possibly alert you to a low pressure reading?  Put sensors in the footballs that a single ref can monitor that digitally show all the football's current pressure and the he/she can inflate or deflate as needed during game to maintain the constant requested pressure of the qb's.
 
Apparently it's at least being tested or looked at... 

 

[AardsmaToZupcic]

Florio was on D&C this morning.  You could hear in his voice how badly he wants the Pats to be nailed for this.  He basically said, he didn't care what Kraft said and the NFL does not need to prove anything beyond a reasonable doubt.  Circumstantial evidence is enough.  
 
Gerry asked what happens if/when they spoke to the ball boy about what he was doing in the bathroom, and the ball boy said he was taking a leak?  Florio said all the NFL has to do is say, "I don't believe you."  He thinks that the reason Brady looked so rattled last week was because deep down, he realized that somebody could have done something to the footballs.  
 
 
 

Did Florio also report that the 12th Ball was not under inflated because it was killed in a car crash?

 

[Peak Oil Can Boyd]

Florio can't let go: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/28/its-easy-to-quickly-deflate-a-football/

 

[Steve Dillard]

Regarding the league being "entrenched," it seems like they tested the balls at halftime with the Pats balls under 12.5 and the Colts somewhere in the legal range and concluded immediately that they had conclusive evidence of tampering. They are resisting moving off of that position.

From what King reported, this was on the "watch list" that the Colts submitted to the officials pre-game. (apparently, a team can preview concerns and trick plays they will run so that the refs can anticipate it.) If so, this isn't a one-time deflation item, it was a pattern. I think the league has the "Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action" conclusion.

I worry that if King is right, the chances that the balls were not gauge tested before the game would seem to be really low.

 

[Harry Hooper]

From what King reported, this was on the "watch list" that the Colts submitted to the officials pre-game. (apparently, a team can preview concerns and trick plays they will run so that the refs can anticipate it.) If so, this isn't a one-time deflation item, it was a pattern. I think the league has the "Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action" conclusion.

I worry that if King is right, the chances that the balls were not gauge tested before the game would seem to be really low.

 
So, 12.5 in the pre-game check, and under that at halftime. Tampering isn't the only explanation, but the league is not interested in alternatives..
 
 
Coincidence? No, it happens in every game in Foxboro after mid-October.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Chris Long kills it:
 
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/deflategate/

 
Off topic, but the bar on top of that page that rotates whenever you scroll in a different direction is the worst.

 

[DJnVa]

From what King reported, this was on the "watch list" that the Colts submitted to the officials pre-game. (apparently, a team can preview concerns and trick plays they will run so that the refs can anticipate it.) If so, this isn't a one-time deflation item, it was a pattern. I think the league has the "Once is an accident. Twice is coincidence. Three times is an enemy action" conclusion.

I worry that if King is right, the chances that the balls were not gauge tested before the game would seem to be really low.

 
It's only a pattern if they can prove it. Harbaugh telling the Colts to say something isn't a pattern. Even if balls were gauge tested, a ball can go from 12.5 to 11.0 just due to weather.
 
Every single thing that has been leaked can be shown to happen due to SCIENCE!! or a ball boy's bladder.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

To answer the bolded a ball at 13.5 psi dropping to 12.5 psi is a 3.5% drop(yes using absolute pressure and assuming 14.7 psi atmosphere). Assuming constant volume that means the ball would drop to 12.5 psi at 50F. So anything below 50F and the ball is technically out of spec.

 
that's kind of what I figured.  I get that there might be other things that don't make it this simple.  I know I shouldn't be astounded by it, but I can't help but shake my head that the Pats are being assaulted over something that happens naturally at many many NFL games each and every season.
 
In some ways doesn't this speak to why Aaron Rodgers likes the balls a little over inflated.  I imagine playing at his home games in GB and having Chicago in the division means that he plays quite a few games outside in weather that is below 50 degrees.