This season can’t start soon enough for me. We all had this discussion last year, but every year, basketball has taken up more and more of my overall love of sports. I still really enjoy football and baseball, but basketball completely laps them.
Derrick White, On-Off wizard
- Thread starter benhogan
- Start date
I can't imagine this is going to change much.
Instead of Smart bringing the ball up, throwing the ball to Tatum then screening Tatums guy. White is going to bring the ball up, throw the ball to Tatum and screen Tatums guy.
It was about Tatum last year. It'll be about Tatum this year. It'll be about Tatum for the rest of his career here.
You get the ball to your best player and he makes the play. Same as everywhere else in the NBA.
Having Porzingis instead of Smart actually changes the late game offense quite a bit, I’d think. Usually teams run action with their two best offensive players late in games, but they play different positions most of the time.
Jaylen and Tatum don’t screen for each other because Tatum’s guy on Jaylen isn’t a mismatch, and Tatum is going to get trapped anyways. Tatum could get mismatches on Smart’s guy, but that just leads to JT being trapped and Smart taking open threes, which he just doesn’t hit enough of. If last year was for real with White from three, that’s a pretty big difference.
Most importantly, now you can run action with Tatum/KP, which should be miles ahead of Tatum/Smart.
I'm hoping we will see a lot of off-ball screens for Tatum and Brown when KP has the ball high post to let the Jays move to open space to receive the ball, be that popping out for 3 or cutting to the hoop.
I guess.
But that would still end with Tatum holding the ball and deciding when to go/shoot. They're not going to run plays where the ball moves around. No NBA team does that anymore.
My guess is Tatum prefers the screen to a smaller guy than a bigger guy, since he just usually wants to shoot a midranger over them.
But either way, crunch time will pretty much always end up with Tatum being handed the ball and going.
Last year, to me anyway, the obvious switch wasn't White instead of Smart late. It was both White and Smart and quit playing two bigs.
Other teams almost always trap Tatum in crunch time though. Which in that case, having White and Porzingis out there just makes them far better equipped to handle it.
I agree with your overall point that a lot of it comes down to Tatum, but he had a 67% TS and 2 total turnovers in 40 crunch time minutes last postseason, and the team had a -11.4 net rating in those situations. It’s the organization’s job to address their late game trouble in the playoffs, and I think they did that.
They're still going to trap Tatum in crunch time though, because he hasn't shown the ability to beat it by passing out of it yet.
I assume with the way the roster is built, they're still going to play double big late. If Tatum does pass the ball, the opponent won't have to worry much about rotating to stop a second pass since there will be White, Jaylen and two bigs with him. Only guy they have to even think about moving it quickly again is White. I'd imagine teams will still throw two at Tatum, dare him to pass out of it and recover.
I’d be surprised by this. Tatum has always seemed to be stronger offensively against bigger players where he can more easily generate body space to comfortably shoot or can drive past them. That’s also generally true (offense is typically stronger playing “up” a position). I don’t have Tatum specific stats so my impression here could be wrong, and Tatum could also disagree with it regardless of the data.
The other thing is that it’s not just about Tatum. Tatum is willing to pass in late game situations, and switches with Porzingis create mismatches for Porzingis too. Horford and Timelord both have limits to their ability to exploit mismatches. Porzingis doesn’t. He can shoot, drive, and post up effectively and efficiently. If Tatum is being defended by a 6’6” wing and there’s a switch, Porzingis is in a massive matchup advantage that forces further switches and rotations and creates opportunities. We didn’t have that before because the no one is scrambling to fix a Horford mismatch in the closing minutes or seconds of a game, Brown can’t create them because of size/position, and Smart can’t exploit them. We’ll see if they can get the action to work but conceptually it should be a very big difference in our ability to play 2-man games when the game slows down.
In theory, sure.
But it's just not how the NBA works anymore.
If Tatum is defended by a 6'6" wing and there's a switch, he's not dumping the ball down to Porzingis against that 6'6" wing. He's going to try to take the big that's now been switched on to him. If somehow he does pass out, it's unlikely going to be trying to throw a pass over/around that big to the post. It would almost always be sideways to the perimeter.
I'd also pushback on Porzingis as a guy that can drive, I would worry 0% about that as a defender. I also think his shooting is overrated.
People talk they're replacing a bricklayer in Smart with a sniper like Porzingis, when Smart shot 33% from three over the past four years and Porzingis shot 36%. He's better obviously. But I don't think it's going to change how teams defend Boston in crunch time much at all. They'll be almost as happy having Tatum give the ball up for a Porzingis outside shot as they were for a Smart outside shot.
Porzingis will help Boston offensively when one of Brown/Tatum are off. I don't think he changes much at all in crunch time. Especially when playing alongside another big.
I think you’re just vastly underrating how good Porzingis is offensively. He’s a massive, massive upgrade, and will absolutely change their crunch time offense, IMO.
This is their efficiency from last season.
I didn't read all this, the size of this graphic is hurting my eyes..I think you’re just vastly underrating how good Porzingis is offensively. He’s a massive, massive upgrade, and will absolutely change their crunch time offense, IMO.
This is their efficiency from last season.
My point has been, he won't change their crunch time offense much because it's still going to be Tatum just going with the ball.
A players efficiency doesn't matter a whole lot when he isn't involved in the play, because there is no play.
His DK Fantasy points definitely don't matter.
Obviously the fucking fantasy points don’t matter, I clearly was talking about the part that shows their efficiency.
A player’s efficiency absolutely matters when there is or isn’t a play, what the hell are you on about. KP is a guy that destroys mismatches, and is a very good catch and shoot guy. They absolutely will take advantage of that in crunch time.
You’re oversimplifying what an actual late game offense looks like. Tatum gets the ball, and either attacks, or kicks it out to someone once he gets trapped around the three point line. Since Porzingis is a MUCH better offensive player than Smart, that very clearly makes them harder to defend late in games.
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Anyone has stats on how much the Cs played 2BIGZ in crunch time last year. My memory says that Cs didn't play a lot of it - part of the issue with their crunch time performance is that Al rarely seemed to capable of being the lone big on defense most of the time.
I also recall JoeMazz playing Brogdan and Smart together down the stretch too.
But my memory is going downhill faster than Blake went downhill . . . .
No. They won't.
As you said in the third paragraph, Tatum is going to get the ball, attacks, and if his attack fails he will kick it out to someone at the three point line.
He won't be passing it to KP as a guy that destroys mismatches, because for him to attack KP is going to have to get out of the way and out to the three point line. Out there, as I said earlier, he shoots 36% over the past 4 years to Smarts 33%. So he's a better there, but not as good making a second pass or driving into a second pass, making the difference in their crunch time offense marginal at most in my eyes. Definitely not MUCH better.
I don't have five man unit data on it, but Horford and Grant Williams were 4th and 5th on the team in crunch time minutes, both ahead of Brogdon and White.
So I'd guess their most common 5 man was with both Al and Grant.
Yes. They will.
You’re assuming they won’t because they haven’t done a ton of it, but that’s because they haven’t had the personnel. Brad specifically talked about them acquiring Porzingis because he brings an element that the team just hasn’t had. To think that wouldn’t be part of the equation in crunch time is pretty silly. Thinking it’s just Tatum every time is you letting the eye test trick you, as his usage in crunch time wasn’t even close to most top guys.
Also, Tatum usually gets trapped at the three point line, not after he attacks, that would be the defense collapsing, which is very different. When he gets trapped, it’s swinging the ball and the rest of the Celtics players going 4 on 3 while the defense scrambles. But when they run action with Tatum and KP, which they clearly will, Porzingis can either pop, or roll. If you don’t understand how that brings a significantly different element to the offense, I don’t know what to tell you pal.
Also, just using plain three point percentage is pointless, because it ignores context. Last season, Smart was in the 85th percentile in three point shot quality, Porzingis was in the 2nd percentile. Two years ago? Smart was in the 93rd percentile, KP 3rd.
Porzingis is miles ahead as a shooter, whether you want to believe it or not.
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The data from Porzingis last season screams buying at the top though - its almost as if Brad got caught up in Blog Boy Mania given all the "...nobody is talking about Kristaps Porzingis's season" content when they were all talking about his season.I think you’re just vastly underrating how good Porzingis is offensively. He’s a massive, massive upgrade, and will absolutely change their crunch time offense, IMO.
This is their efficiency from last season.
There is little question about Porzingis fit with the C's - it looks great on paper. But if we are being good faith maybe we use Porzingis' career averages versus a career year when there were zero stakes involved. You'll still get your delta on stuff like shooting but it will illustrate that the difference between Kristaps and Smart's three point translates to roughly .5 points per game.
Also, I will be surprised to see the C's go to Porzingis regularly in crunch time but maybe they will change things.
I think there’s a misconception that it’s just last year when it comes to impact stats loving Porzingis, but that’s not really the case. He’s graded out really well the last three seasons, with each season getting better and better. It’s exactly what you’d expect from someone whose been in the process of entering their prime.
I get being concerned about the injury risk, but on the court? He’s a legitimate stud on both ends.
As for crunch time, it depends on what you mean by regularly. Clutch is short sample, so all it may take is going to him once or twice per game in those situations. Not even to score, but maybe he forces the defense to collapse, and he can kick it to someone.
I feel the same way about KP now that I did about Brogdon last year: IF he can stay healthy it will be unequivocally a win for the offense (the post above comparing Smart's and KP's 3p% over the last few years is as disingenuous as trying to compare Tatum's 35% over the last couple seasons with Smart's 33% over the same stretch), and some hit or miss results defensively. If they keep switching everything he's gonna look pretty bad defensively, but as a rim protector, he's pretty good (I'm very much looking forward to a lineup of White/Brown/Tatum/KP/Williams).
The Celtics haven't had a big man as good offensively as KP in over 30 years (although Antoine had his moments, as did KG in 08). To suggest that that won't have a positive impact on the half court offense late in games is baffling to me.
Yea, the NBA is also definitely grabbing my attention these days. This has been a multi-year build-up since Brad took over, constantly upgrading talent where he can, while the 2 stars head toward their prime seasons. We've seen the Sox & Pats run this same playbook numerous times over the last 2 decades.
I was pretty surprised at how tough his looks were from 3, both on film and statistically.
He might regress from 38%, but he also might improve with better shot quality, a la DWhite. KP is a legitimately plus shooter; he's not the typical "if you don't run him off the line he can take his time and hit 37%" shooting big.
He also shoots DEEP threes, which has good value in itself. Any extra amount you can open up the floor makes it that much easier for other guys to drive.
His average shot distance from three last year was 27 feet. Just for comparison’s sake, Tatum and Jaylen were at 26, and Steph was at 27.
ESPN released its NBArank top 100 players in the last week. Entertainingly, Derrick White is... nowhere on the list. He's ostensibly less valuable than Grant Williams, who's ranked 97th.
Methodology: "ESPN's NBArank panel, composed of nearly 150 reporters, editors, producers and analysts, were asked to rank players based on their predicted contributions -- quality and quantity -- for the 2023-24 season only." So, no, DW is not finally getting some respect, at least not from everyone.
Methodology: "ESPN's NBArank panel, composed of nearly 150 reporters, editors, producers and analysts, were asked to rank players based on their predicted contributions -- quality and quantity -- for the 2023-24 season only." So, no, DW is not finally getting some respect, at least not from everyone.
Marcus Smart #59 dropping from #34 the previous season. Anybody that watched, save a few around here, would tell you White was better than Smart.
ESPN is to sports what MTV is to music...
At least Kevin Pelton recognized the error:
Derrick White, Boston Celtics
The single most glaring omission from the top 100, White had a case as the most important player on last season's Celtics outside of stars Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. With White on the court, Boston outscored opponents by 11 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats, which dropped to 1.3 without him. While White did benefit from weaker opponent shooting on 3s in his minutes, he also played a key role in that differential with his career-high 38% 3-point shooting and secondary playmaking on a team badly in need of it. There's a better case for White as one of the NBA's top 50 players than outside the top 100.
ALSO The Athletic (Partnow) had DW much higher (#40-53 range)
https://theathletic.com/4784508/2023/08/18/nba-player-tiers-kevin-durant-giannis-jokic-curry/
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ESPN had a follow up with folks critiquing their top 100. (Question number 3, below). Two of them specifically mentioned the omission of White.
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38635915/snubs-surprises-players-make-leap
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/38635915/snubs-surprises-players-make-leap
The only thing that slightly concerns me with White is his confidence. When he's right, he's great. But he seems to be a little more prone to cold spells than the average player. And when he gets cold, he gets ice cold. Luckily, he still brings value in other ways when his shot isn't falling.
I‘d be confident playing with Tatum, Brown, Jrue, KP, etc. White as your 5th/6th best player is crazy. With that lineup spreading the floor, when they go to him, he’s either going to be able to get layups/back in smaller covers for his five footer he does so well, or shoot wide open threes.
Yea, all he really just needs to do is color his hair, draw more Technicals, get a selfie stick and work on his social media game
Shaving his head is a promising move.
Porzingis at 62 feels low. There's a handful of names above him that I would take KP over.
Fair. Other than injuries, when this is one of the bigger concerns for a team, I'd say you're in a good spot.
Certain narratives, spun by the media, stick with players. Porzingis caught 100% of the blame for the MAVs failures.
Nice guy Brad is just arbitraging those narratives
When you have people like Dave McMenamin voting and answering questions in the follow up, it invalidates the whole process.
Sad part is that ESPN was once, long LONG ago, the “go to” for everyone. I only watch the games on ESPN and they have had the worst broadcasts of any network for a couple of decades. Mike Patrick & Joe Theismann ushered in the talk 1000% of the time football play by play & color commentary. Talk so much & say nothing. Moose Johnston owes his career to this bloviators.
When a good understated color analyst like James Lofton came around he was relegated to back bench status as he didn’t run his trap continuously. ESPN spawned a nightmare of overkill.
Agree. This was the eventual difference-maker in my personal evaluation of the Holiday trade (initially, I was slightly against... I've since swung to "modestly in favor"). The upside of the Derrick White Experience is definitely 'starting point guard for NBA title team". But the version where his confidence stalls out under the weight of raised expectations, Brogdon is unhappy and/or injured and the J's leadership abilities are put directly to the test to navigate it all sounds... dicey. Acquiring Jrue effectively pre-empts all of this (edit: including the leadership part).
I think it's as simple as the lack of hardware and team success. KP hasn't been on an All-Star team since 2018 and has 10 playoff starts. Meanwhile, Smart won DPOY and has been fixture of the postseason, so he's ranked a few spots higher. Plus, KP's injuries are well-documented, whereas there's not a lot of awareness of Smart's injury issues last year. Feels like a classic low-info-voter-driven outcome.
Edit: it's kind of shocking how underwhelming Smart's numbers are in a vacuum: 61 games, 41.5 FG%, 33 3PG%, 11.5 PTS, 6.3 AST, 3.1 REB, 2.3 TO. That's not the profile of a guard we'd be salivating to acquire.
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I realize you're a White fan, and I'm not picking on your comment, since it's an observation of many in regards to his "confidence" BUT when a lot of Celtics were out last Spring it was White who won NBA Player of the Week and kept the Celtics competitive. His playoff #s were excellent. He came up with a huge, clutch play in Game 6. AND he was the only Celtic who could actually dribble the ball and attack the rim in Game 7 against the Heat. There were Celtics openly throwing up on themselves in the Garden last May, White wasn't one of them.
I'd say if we were sports shrinks (& I'm not) we should be more concerned about the raised expectations of the highest-paid NBA player in history.
And for the record, I'm not worried about Jaylen Brown BUT White is mustard.
It's why there was a long-running thread in this forum highlighting all the things that Marcus did that don't show up on the scoresheet.
In defense of Marcus last season, he clearly played injured after a fall on a shitty surface in Toronto (pre-season game?). He had trouble moving laterally, and his defense wasn't nearly as effective. BUT Marcus sucked it up and played.
Nobody can question Smart's heart & will, but he may not age well with all the wear-n-tear and style of play. Then again Memphis may turn him into Tony Allen 2.0, and they would have the last laugh.
White was a lot better than a gimpy Smart last year & the ESPN rankings don't reflect that.
FWIW Partnow had DW higher than MS
Just looking at guards in the 51-100 range, I would absolutely put White over Sexton, Westbrook, Conley, Quickley, Hield, Simons, Clarkson, CP3, Poole, and Smart
Yeah—the ESPN basketball people run a gamut from Lowe and Pelton who actual nba teams take seriously to solid guys like Bontemps to informed but narrative-obsessed Windhorst/McMahon to ex players like Perk to know-littles (I’d put McNemanin in there). In aggregate maybe there’s signal to it but there’s also a lot of narrative-y noise
Part of the problem may be that, if you're not watching all the teams a lot, you may not be current on all the ways that a player is evolving. Derrick White showed us a tremendously useful improved three-point shot last year (of course that would show up in stats). But as people have noted, those of us closely following Celtics games saw that last year Rob wasn't the springy leaper or defensive threat of a few years back; he had degraded, probably due to knee issues. And Smart's defense took a noticeable step backwards (though maybe injury related as well?). Smart was no longer as effective staying in front of people. He's still a good defender, but was tied for #42 in defensive win shares last year, after being tied for #8 the year before.
Hey - Grant went from being the 8th best player on a championship contender to 3rd best on a play in team. That is quite the leap!