Derrick White, playoff Alpha

ManicCompression

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This is the most likely scenario, but by signing DWhite, they'll have left themselves the flexibility to deal any combination of:
- JB
- DWhite
- Jrue
- KP
depending on who is performing well, what other teams' needs are, which other players on the roster develop, etc

I'd be shocked if one or more of those guys isn't dealt within 2 years.
But what happens if they keep winning? Let's say - huge if - they win it all this year, have another great season and maybe make it to ECF/Finals next year... how can Wyc tell the fan base "We're going to make this trade to save money despite being a championship quality team"? How many teams winning at this level have downgraded for pure salary reasons?
 

tims4wins

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But what happens if they keep winning? Let's say - huge if - they win it all this year, have another great season and maybe make it to ECF/Finals next year... how can Wyc tell the fan base "We're going to make this trade to save money despite being a championship quality team"? How many teams winning at this level have downgraded for pure salary reasons?
He won’t
 

BigSoxFan

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Where are we currently ranking the White trade on all-time Celtics moves?

Russell for Hagen/Macauley
Parish/McHale for Joe Barely Cares
Nets Heist for Tatum/Brown
KG Trade
Ray Allen trade
DJ for Robey

Am I missing any major ones? So, maybe somewhere in the 7-10 range all-time for a franchise that has a laundry list of great trades.

Adding a ring probably moves him into that illustrious group.
 

dhellers

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Where are we currently ranking the White trade on all-time Celtics moves?

Russell for Hagen/Macauley
Parish/McHale for Joe Barely Cares
Nets Heist for Tatum/Brown
KG Trade
Ray Allen trade
DJ for Robey

Am I missing any major ones? So, maybe somewhere in the 7-10 range all-time for a franchise that has a laundry list of great trades.

Adding a ring probably moves him into that illustrious group.
DJ for Robey is a very hard one to beat (given what was obvious at the time about the qualities of each player)
 

dhellers

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There are a lot of teams who have another guy who's the center of attention, and who could really use DWhite. Spurs with Wemby, Detroit with Cade, Atlanta with Trae....I'm sure I can find more.
Of course, but what is being a 1c worth? $40 million? $30million.?

Would you hesitate to match a $30mill offer for DW (assuming his performance stays at this season's level --- which had its relative ups and downs).

But $40????
 

lovegtm

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Of course, but what is being a 1c worth? $40 million? $30million.?

Would you hesitate to match a $30mill offer for DW (assuming his performance stays at this season's level --- which had its relative ups and downs).

But $40????
In the new cap, 40 easily. See the FVV contract.
 

lexrageorge

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But what happens if they keep winning? Let's say - huge if - they win it all this year, have another great season and maybe make it to ECF/Finals next year... how can Wyc tell the fan base "We're going to make this trade to save money despite being a championship quality team"? How many teams winning at this level have downgraded for pure salary reasons?
I think any trade in a season or two from now will be to set themselves up for some flexibility to deal with inevitable aging curves of Jrue, KP, and, of course, Al Horford. It's too early to predict who, despite Brown being everyone's favorite trade candidate.
 

Marbleheader

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Where are we currently ranking the White trade on all-time Celtics moves?

Russell for Hagen/Macauley
Parish/McHale for Joe Barely Cares
Nets Heist for Tatum/Brown
KG Trade
Ray Allen trade
DJ for Robey

Am I missing any major ones? So, maybe somewhere in the 7-10 range all-time for a franchise that has a laundry list of great trades.

Adding a ring probably moves him into that illustrious group.
Should have been Henderson for Bias.

Maxwell for Walton helped bring a title.

Rondo and Perk were both acquired during draft trades. Fultz for Tatum + Langford (who was traded to get White). That Nets trade was the gift that kept on giving. If they hadn't traded the 2018 pick for Kyrie, they would have been in position to get SGA.

White trade is definitely up there.
 
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Euclis20

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Should have been Henderson for Bias.

Maxwell for Walton helped bring a title.

Rondo and Perk were both acquired during draft trades. Fultz for Tatum + Langford (who was traded to get White). That Nets trade was the gift that kept on giving. If they hadn't traded the 2018 pick for Kyrie, they would have been in position to get SGA.

White trade is definitely up there.
Or Bridges or MPJ(or any of the half dozen or so decent role players taken within a dozen spots of that pick). It was the right move (and I think the IT situation would've gotten very ugly), but there was some talent on the board.
 

the moops

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Or Bridges or MPJ(or any of the half dozen or so decent role players taken within a dozen spots of that pick). It was the right move (and I think the IT situation would've gotten very ugly), but there was some talent on the board.
Or could have gotten stuck with Sexton or Knox
 

lexrageorge

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Where are we currently ranking the White trade on all-time Celtics moves?

Russell for Hagen/Macauley
Parish/McHale for Joe Barely Cares
Nets Heist for Tatum/Brown
KG Trade
Ray Allen trade
DJ for Robey

Am I missing any major ones? So, maybe somewhere in the 7-10 range all-time for a franchise that has a laundry list of great trades.

Adding a ring probably moves him into that illustrious group.
Should have been Henderson for Bias.

Maxwell for Walton helped bring a title.

Rondo and Perk were both acquired during draft trades. Fultz for Tatum + Langford (who was traded to get White). That Nets trade was the gift that kept on giving. If they hadn't traded the 2018 pick for Kyrie, they would have been in position to get SGA.

White trade is definitely up there.
A bit under the radar compared to the above, but getting Paul Silas for the rights to Charlie Scott was pretty important to the team's 12th and 13th titles.

Bailey Howell for Mel Counts was a robbery that helped the Celtics win banners in 1968 and 1969 as the Russell-led core was aging.
 

Spelunker

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Where are we currently ranking the White trade on all-time Celtics moves?

Russell for Hagen/Macauley
Parish/McHale for Joe Barely Cares
Nets Heist for Tatum/Brown
KG Trade
Ray Allen trade
DJ for Robey

Am I missing any major ones? So, maybe somewhere in the 7-10 range all-time for a franchise that has a laundry list of great trades.

Adding a ring probably moves him into that illustrious group.
You left out the Ice Capades on that first one
 

ALiveH

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Jrue is gonna be the one dealt first - seems obvious. He is significantly older than DW, has played more minutes same age - and they duplicate each others' skill sets a lot. Staple him with draft capital once he starts to decline or has a year left on his deal for a good young guard on a bad-to-average team.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Should have been Henderson for Bias.

Maxwell for Walton helped bring a title.

Rondo and Perk were both acquired during draft trades. Fultz for Tatum + Langford (who was traded to get White). That Nets trade was the gift that kept on giving. If they hadn't traded the 2018 pick for Kyrie, they would have been in position to get SGA.

White trade is definitely up there.
I think these kind of evaluations have gotten harder in recent years, because movement of contracts has become as much a part of trades of veterans as movement of players and picks.

Nominally speaking, the Celtics traded Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala and Julian Phillips (who) for Kristaps Porzingis, Marcus Sasser (also who), and a first round draft pick. Smart for KP and a pick makes no sense, unless you consider that Kristaps, if not traded, was going to opt out and hit UFA, leaving Washington with nothing. The decision to bring KP here was a brilliant one, but as a trade it can't really be evaluated alongside the McHale/Parish deal or the Robey for DJ deal.

The Celtics also traded the fossilize remains of Kemba Walker, a 1st round pick, and a second round pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown, and a second. This is a great deal because they shed salary while adding a very good player.

The White deal wasn't about contract so much, unless SA was doing it in part to shed salary - but even if so it was a miscalculation.
 
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InstaFace

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My understanding is that Popovich traded Derrick White because he loved the guy and wanted him to play under brighter lights, and SA was probably going to suck the next few years (and has), and he wanted to do right by him. And therefore he accepted deal terms that were just kinda ok. That we got the benefit of Popovich being the epitome of a player's coach, but it has less to do with us/Brad than with Pop and White's relationship.
 

dhellers

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My understanding is that Popovich traded Derrick White because he loved the guy and wanted him to play under brighter lights, and SA was probably going to suck the next few years (and has), and he wanted to do right by him. And therefore he accepted deal terms that were just kinda ok. That we got the benefit of Popovich being the epitome of a player's coach, but it has less to do with us/Brad than with Pop and White's relationship.
How about karmic pay back for "stealing" Tim Duncan from the Celts in the 1997 draft?

The Boston Celtics had the second-worst record in the 1996–97 season and the best odds (36 percent) of winning the lottery with two picks, the Spurs lost David Robinson and Sean Elliott to injury early in the season, finished with the third-worst record, and subsequently won the lottery. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_NBA_draft).​

From a meta point of view, SA pulled this off by via a positively Auerbachian move of sucking for JUST ONE YEAR:
59-23 (2nd in west) in in 95/96, 20-62 in 96/97 (which gave them 3rd spot in the lottery), and 56-26 in 97/98 (5th in west)

Squaring the Karma seemed to work -- how else to explain getting Wemby?
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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That team with White was still garbage. I love White as much as anyone here but he isn’t the type to drag a god awful team to respectably

Please repeat this as loudly as possible to NBA GMs thinking of giving him a big contract in twelve months

He looks great in his current role. But he's not going to be a third star for Detroit or Orlando that suddenly makes them significantly better.
 

Jakarta

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Please repeat this as loudly as possible to NBA GMs thinking of giving him a big contract in twelve months

He looks great in his current role. But he's not going to be a third star for Detroit or Orlando that suddenly makes them significantly better.
Detroit I agree because he would be the first star (or maybe 1b next to Cade) for that dumpster fire. But Orlando would be a great fit next to Paolo and the rest of the rotation would complement those 2 very nicely. Probably just need to add more shooting and they would be a real threat to a Celtics team without DW.
 

lovegtm

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Please repeat this as loudly as possible to NBA GMs thinking of giving him a big contract in twelve months

He looks great in his current role. But he's not going to be a third star for Detroit or Orlando that suddenly makes them significantly better.
DWhite is really good, and any ok team that pays a lot for him is going to be really, really happy.

He'd look amazing in Orlando and instantly make them way better.

Hopefully I'm wrong, and he is fine re-signing in Boston at ~30M per, but people are a bit delusional if they don't think he'd get way more than that if he went to UFA and wanted to maximize every dollar.
 

Euclis20

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DWhite is really good, and any ok team that pays a lot for him is going to be really, really happy.

He'd look amazing in Orlando and instantly make them way better.

Hopefully I'm wrong, and he is fine re-signing in Boston at ~30M per, but people are a bit delusional if they don't think he'd get way more than that if he went to UFA and wanted to maximize every dollar.
Yeah I think White would be the perfect 3rd option on a playoff team. Durable, efficient, unselfish and an excellent defender. No clue what their cap situation is, but he'd fit in great in Orlando as a veteran leader in a starting lineup with Suggs/Wagner/Banchero/Carter jr.
 

DavidTai

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Yeah I think White would be the perfect 3rd option on a playoff team. Durable, efficient, unselfish and an excellent defender. No clue what their cap situation is, but he'd fit in great in Orlando as a veteran leader in a starting lineup with Suggs/Wagner/Banchero/Carter jr.
Seems like a better fit than Dort or Giddey next to SGA, too, if you needed a veteran leader there as well.
 

Montana Fan

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I wouldn‘t put it past the NBA Executive of the year to re-sign White this offseason. His contract for next season is just shy of $20 million. Stevens will have a lot of leverage, ideal playing situation, immediate pay increase, exclusive negotiating window and a hedge for DW against a potential injury.
 

Euclis20

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Seems like a better fit than Dort or Giddey next to SGA, too, if you needed a veteran leader there as well.
White is the sort of player who could fit anywhere, but what OKC needs more than anything (other than experience) is to get bigger. Orlando already has an embarrassment of riches in that area, and could take Harris' sport without them missing a beat.
 

Jakarta

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And if it is all about the money, Brad can still offer the most money, he just needs to wait until the following year. The only question is whether DW wants the security this year, or the added risk for a bigger payday next year.
 

The Mort Report

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I wouldn‘t put it past the NBA Executive of the year to re-sign White this offseason. His contract for next season is just shy of $20 million. Stevens will have a lot of leverage, ideal playing situation, immediate pay increase, exclusive negotiating window and a hedge for DW against a potential injury.
The problem is the max they can offer him is like $27 million a year. If he thought he'd get $30 mil on the open market maybe Brad could sell him on it, but if he's looking to even just get paid market value he'll have wait. I wish the max the C's could offer was closer to the Jrue number, in that case I think it could get done, I just can't see him possibly leaving $40+ million dollars out of his next contract
 

benhogan

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The problem is the max they can offer him is like $27 million a year. If he thought he'd get $30 mil on the open market maybe Brad could sell him on it, but if he's looking to even just get paid market value he'll have wait. I wish the max the C's could offer was closer to the Jrue number, in that case I think it could get done, I just can't see him possibly leaving $40+ million dollars out of his next contract
FWIW After all of White's incentives kicked in 6 weeks ago Bobby Marks tabulated that the max extension Brad can offer DW this Summer is $123M/4yrs

If they win it all this season my tea leaves say he won't hold out for every last shekel & extend.

Earlier this year there was some debate that Jrue wouldn't extend in season and would go to FA for his biggest "last contract". Jrue chose to extend for $135M/4yrs & eschew waiting 3 months to sign a larger FA deal with someone like the 76ers.

I'm also optimistic that Brad will extend Hauser this Summer at somewhere between Grant & PP #s (say 3/$30M) along with getting Kornet or Tillman to come back on the cheap.

I continue to be fine with drinking the Brad/Zarren Kool-Aid.
 

Montana Fan

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FWIW After all of White's incentives kicked in 6 weeks ago Bobby Marks tabulated that the max extension Brad can offer DW this Summer is $123M/4yrs.
I know everyone is wired differently but a $123M extension would mean at the end of the contract he’d have $200M in career earnings. That said, playing out his currenr deal and betting on himself next season could mean an extra $50M Tough decision.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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That team with White was still garbage. I love White as much as anyone here but he isn’t the type to drag a god awful team to respectably
Agree that SAS would have still been bad with White but when you are tanking, every loss counts!

Getting rid of DW and putting him on a contender was a win-win-win for everyone involved, particularly SAS who probably gets some goodwill in the player/agent community plus accomplished their main goal.
 

chilidawg

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Yeah I think White would be the perfect 3rd option on a playoff team. Durable, efficient, unselfish and an excellent defender. No clue what their cap situation is, but he'd fit in great in Orlando as a veteran leader in a starting lineup with Suggs/Wagner/Banchero/Carter jr.
He's already the 3rd best player on the best fucking team in the league. He'd be great in Orlando, or Milwaukee, or NY, or the Lakers. Or most teams.
 

benhogan

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I know everyone is wired differently but a $123M extension would mean at the end of the contract he’d have $200M in career earnings. That said, playing out his currenr deal and betting on himself next season could mean an extra $50M Tough decision.
Yea. Most Top Players/Agents rarely make it to UFA and opt for large extensions early. Derrick seems pretty egoless compared to the modern NBA superstar and doesn't need a Free Agent contract to tell him he is a great player. I'm guessing $200M in career earnings with a $132M of that guaranteed a year early will float his boat.

Not bad for a guy that couldn't get a Div 1 scholarship out of HS, had to transfer to a pedestrian Colorado team his Senior year (sat out for a season), entered the NBA as an "OLD rookie with a limited ceiling", was a late first-round pick (29), had Dejounte Murray ahead of him on the SAS depth chart, and played his rookie year in the G-League.

He's already the 3rd best player on the best fucking team in the league. He'd be great in Orlando, or Milwaukee, or NY, or the Lakers. Or most teams.
He'd make every NBA team much better (esp. Orlando)

According to On-Off & +/- Derrick was the most efficient Celtic starter last season & this season.
BUT he is 4th in PPG... so PointZ is a much better way to estimate his value ;)
 

InstaFace

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FWIW After all of White's incentives kicked in 6 weeks ago Bobby Marks tabulated that the max extension Brad can offer DW this Summer is $123M/4yrs
Link? People keep misquoting the amount, and I'd love to just have a handy reference to an authoritative number. Marks has been on it with respect to White for a while.

I'll take a crack at the numbers. With that $500k bonus, White will make $20.1M next year. An extension at the end of that can start at 140% of his final-year salary and contain annual raises of 8% of the first-year (of the extension) salary. This would mean his (max-extension) salary numbers would be:

2024-25: $20,071,429 (includes $500k ULTBE bonus for the 3-pointers)
2025-26: $28,100,000 (140% of the above)
2026-27: $30,348,000 (raises are $2,248,000, 8% of the 25-26 number)
2027-28: $32,596,000
2028-29: $34,844,000

Total extension: 4 years, $125,888,000, an AAV of $31.5M.

I'm a bit surprised we're able to have finality about all the incentives, since I think there's a $250k kicker dependent on him being all-defense. If it's the same announcement schedule as last year (May 9th), we should find out about all-defense later this week. If White does make all-defense again, that adds $250k to his 24-25 salary, and thus $350k to his 25-26 (extension-max) potential salary, $1.568M to his 4-year extension, and thus a revised total AAV for the extension of $31.9M. And I'd think him likely to make the all-defense team again, since announcers have been talking about his shot blocking all year and his defense is what he's known for around the league.

In trying to look this up and be certain, though, I came across this absolute gem by John Hollinger, writing in The Athletic about 2017 rookies getting second contracts in late 2020:

The Ugly
Derrick White, Spurs (four years, $70 million base, $5 million in incentives) – White is a good player, but I have two problems with this deal. The minor issue is that it is on the high side for his age and production, especially since he has more value on defense than offense (Again: The NBA free-agent market still tends to overpay for offense and underpay defense). It’s not an egregious overpay, but it’s more than I expected.

Second, unlike most of the players up for rookie contract extensions, White is pretty long in the tooth at 26. You’re not paying for some possibility of a blow-up year coming around the corner; at his point, he is what he is.

Because of this, the fourth year introduces some legitimate downside. He’ll be 30 by then. It’s likely White’s most valuable season on the contract is his first one, his age 27 season, and then things go gradually downward from there.

The base salary is already on the high side, like I said, and the incentives should add a bit more. In particular, White gets $500,000 for playing 70 games. The other incentives are long shots: $500,000 for making 185 3-pointers (this would more than double his career-high of 79) and $250,000 for making either All-Defense team.

So overall, let’s call it $72 million for four years. Bogdanovic money (you can choose which one). I’m a White fan, but that seems a bit rich, especially since San Antonio has his restricted rights next summer.

But the real reason this went in the Ugly chapter is how the contract is structured. It starts low and has standard 8 percent raises like most of the others. But … why? The Spurs have more cap room than they can possibly use this coming offseason — $54 million by my count. Given that, why on earth did they do the contact in increasing dollars?

Front-loading a deal like White’s made all kinds of sense, both from an expected value perspective (as noted, the fourth year of this deal is likely to be the worst one) and a cap management perspective (San Antonio has money to burn in the 2021 offseason but perhaps not so much when extensions on all these other young players kick in). Instead, the contract peaks at $19 million in 2024-25 … by which time Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Lonnie Walker, Jakob Poeltl and Dejounte Murray will all have new (and likely much more expensive) contracts.
Yes, John, the 4th year does seem to have "some legitimate downside" - it's not high enough for us to extend him at the number he now deserves.

Anyway, when the window to extend him around last offseason closed, here was what he had to say at the time:

View: https://twitter.com/CelticsCLNS/status/1717207237301510331


Which sounded promising. Sure, it's media-speak, but there was no "we'll have to see what the market says about my value" or anything more assertive.
 

RorschachsMask

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If the Celtics don’t end up agreeing to a new deal with White, I’ll eat a bowl of mayonnaise. Almost threw up just typing out the word.
 

benhogan

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Link? People keep misquoting the amount, and I'd love to just have a handy reference to an authoritative number. Marks has been on it with respect to White for a while.

I'll take a crack at the numbers. With that $500k bonus, White will make $20.1M next year. An extension at the end of that can start at 140% of his final-year salary and contain annual raises of 8% of the first-year (of the extension) salary. This would mean his (max-extension) salary numbers would be:

2024-25: $20,071,429 (includes $500k ULTBE bonus for the 3-pointers)
2025-26: $28,100,000 (140% of the above)
2026-27: $30,348,000 (raises are $2,248,000, 8% of the 25-26 number)
2027-28: $32,596,000
2028-29: $34,844,000

Total extension: 4 years, $125,888,000, an AAV of $31.5M.

I'm a bit surprised we're able to have finality about all the incentives, since I think there's a $250k kicker dependent on him being all-defense. If it's the same announcement schedule as last year (May 9th), we should find out about all-defense later this week. If White does make all-defense again, that adds $250k to his 24-25 salary, and thus $350k to his 25-26 (extension-max) potential salary, $1.568M to his 4-year extension, and thus a revised total AAV for the extension of $31.9M. And I'd think him likely to make the all-defense team again, since announcers have been talking about his shot blocking all year and his defense is what he's known for around the league.

In trying to look this up and be certain, though, I came across this absolute gem by John Hollinger, writing in The Athletic about 2017 rookies getting second contracts in late 2020:



Yes, John, the 4th year does seem to have "some legitimate downside" - it's not high enough for us to extend him at the number he now deserves.

Anyway, when the window to extend him around last offseason closed, here was what he had to say at the time:

View: https://twitter.com/CelticsCLNS/status/1717207237301510331


Which sounded promising. Sure, it's media-speak, but there was no "we'll have to see what the market says about my value" or anything more assertive.
Thanks for the update.
I was using Bobby Marks number after Derrick White triggered games played for postseason honors.

Bobby Marks tweeted this out on March 22nd:

Boston guard is now eligible for postseason honors.
White was named All-NBA Defensive 2nd team in 2023.
He has 3 pending bonuses:
$250K: All-NBA Defensive (1st or 2nd)
$500K: 185+ 3-pointers made (currently 172)
$500K: 70+ games played
He reached the All-Defensive and games played bonus in 2023.

White is eligible to sign a four-year $123M extension in the offseason.

He's triggered 2 of the 3 bonuses for $1MM.
All-Defense is next ($250K)

Bonuses earned will gradually increase the total amount that Brad can offer, as you noted.

So ~ $127M/4 years may end up being the bag Brad can offer.
 
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Cellar-Door

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In trying to look this up and be certain, though, I came across this absolute gem by John Hollinger, writing in The Athletic about 2017 rookies getting second contracts in late 2020:



Yes, John, the 4th year does seem to have "some legitimate downside" - it's not high enough for us to extend him at the number he now deserves.
While the topline seems silly given how White exploded in Boston..... most of that Hollinger is right on actually.
SA was headed for a blow-up year, White was probably too old to be part of the rebuild, and they did little with the money saved by not frontloading. That contract turned out very poorly for SA who traded White for what ended up being basically Blake Wesley (doesn't look like he'll get a 2nd contract from them 2 years in) and some 2nds. If White had been cheaper because they frontloaded the contract, maybe they get more.
 

lovegtm

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While the topline seems silly given how White exploded in Boston..... most of that Hollinger is right on actually.
SA was headed for a blow-up year, White was probably too old to be part of the rebuild, and they did little with the money saved by not frontloading. That contract turned out very poorly for SA who traded White for what ended up being basically Blake Wesley (doesn't look like he'll get a 2nd contract from them 2 years in) and some 2nds. If White had been cheaper because they frontloaded the contract, maybe they get more.
Front-loading obviously would have been better, and it's weird SA didn't do it, but "ugly" should be reserved for contracts that are negative assets, or barely breakeven. White was a positive value contract the day he extended, and quickly proved that by being traded for positive value soon after the deal started, without taking a significant leap.

You can never go broke betting on Hollinger to be a bloviating moron.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Orlando would be a great fit next to Paolo and the rest of the rotation would complement those 2 very nicely.
DWhite is really good, and any ok team that pays a lot for him is going to be really, really happy.
Yeah I think White would be the perfect 3rd option on a playoff team... ...he'd fit in great in Orlando as a veteran leader in a starting lineup... but what OKC needs more than anything (other than experience) is to get bigger

Been away a bunch of the last ~36 hours so only getting to these now

I suspect that we all have very similar and glowing impressions of PickSwap's game. I've been a big fan since he came to Boston. (I would love to say that I cottoned on to how good he was in San Antonio, but I'm turning into an old fart and didn't watch that much Western Conference basketball in those years).

Here's the place where we might be seeing things differently: I think White has the most value to a team whose offense already features a primarily ball-handler/initiator (in our offense: Tatum), multiple scorers who distract the defense (Tatum, Jaylen, 'Zingis), and larger wing defenders who can free White to disrupt smaller wings. He's really shined in Boston's offense as someone who can size up however the defense is trying to shut down Tatum/Jaylen/Porzingis, and then take advantage of what the defense is leaving open. And he's been legit great in that role. An All Star role player, if you will. Because he's above average in a ton of stuff.

But All Star role players don't always do as well when promoted up to one of the main offensive options. Kinda like a how an All Star short stop and become an average second basement.

in my mind, the question isn't whether he'd make any playoff team better, compared to a vacuum. It's whether he's the highest and best use of >$30M. And I'm guessing a lot of playoff teams would be better served taking all that money and investing it in someone who is better than White and the one or two things they needs most.

Again, I'm a huge fan of White in Boston.
 

lovegtm

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Been away a bunch of the last ~36 hours so only getting to these now

I suspect that we all have very similar and glowing impressions of PickSwap's game. I've been a big fan since he came to Boston. (I would love to say that I cottoned on to how good he was in San Antonio, but I'm turning into an old fart and didn't watch that much Western Conference basketball in those years).

Here's the place where we might be seeing things differently: I think White has the most value to a team whose offense already features a primarily ball-handler/initiator (in our offense: Tatum), multiple scorers who distract the defense (Tatum, Jaylen, 'Zingis), and larger wing defenders who can free White to disrupt smaller wings. He's really shined in Boston's offense as someone who can size up however the defense is trying to shut down Tatum/Jaylen/Porzingis, and then take advantage of what the defense is leaving open. And he's been legit great in that role. An All Star role player, if you will. Because he's above average in a ton of stuff.

But All Star role players don't always do as well when promoted up to one of the main offensive options. Kinda like a how an All Star short stop and become an average second basement.

in my mind, the question isn't whether he'd make any playoff team better, compared to a vacuum. It's whether he's the highest and best use of >$30M. And I'm guessing a lot of playoff teams would be better served taking all that money and investing it in someone who is better than White and the one or two things they needs most.

Again, I'm a huge fan of White in Boston.
I agree that White would flop as a #1 option. However, there are plenty of teams that need an elite 2B or 3A option who plays great defense, and they will pay for that guy.

I'm not going to list them all because it's been done above, and requires only minor effort to come up with lots of them.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I agree that White would flop as a #1 option. However, there are plenty of teams that need an elite 2B or 3A option who plays great defense, and they will pay for that guy.

Fair enough

And since I appear to be in the minority on this one, it makes sense that I explain myself a little bit more.

I don't think we're having a "Do you like Derrick White? Yes or no." debate. We all vote yes, emphatically.

I think we're having a "Are the other teams in question best served by giving Derrick White >$30M as an UFA this summer, or should they be trying to do something better with their money?" debate. And in my mind, that's not so black and white.

In case it's helpful (it might not be) a bunch of us had a similar debate (here and elsewhere, maybe you were a part of it, I don't remember) when Al Horford was approaching free agency back in 2019. And I argued something similar, which was that Al looked great in Boston, but there were only so many teams where he'd play a role that made him similarly valuable on the court, and few of those teams had money. Honestly, at the time I never seriously considered Philly as a place that might sign him. Because trying to design a high-performing offense with Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Horford on the court together made my head hurt, and felt kinda nonsensical. I said that Philly would be better served spending the money on ballhandling shooters/slashers.

Of course, Philly went ahead and signed Al anyway. And it didn't work out. *Not* because Al got any worse. He was more or less the same player in Boston, Philly, and OKC the next year. But in Philly the fit on the court wasn't nearly as good, and the team quickly regretted signing him

The Derrick White free agency has similar 'buyers remorse' risk for (some) other teams. *Not* because Derrick isn't great. But because they might end up with rotation that doesn't complement each other as well as if they'd spent the >$30M on players who'd do different combinations of things.

I'm not going to list them all because it's been done above, and requires only minor effort to come up with lots of them.

I didn't go all that far back in this thread looking, so apologies if I missed something. Of the names I saw...

  • Milwaukee, the Knicks, and the Lakers aren't currently projected to have the cap space for more than small-money deals, so for now are out of the running
  • In Detroit, PickSwap would be almost a decade older than Cade, so this doesn't feel like a "build around a new top 2" approach as much as a "pay a vet to babysit the kids while we continue to lose a lot of games; maybe trade him at the deadline for a bunch of picks to a GM who's on the hot seat" On the court this feels like it would be a 'more confident White' version of what we saw when he was in San Antonio, only for a less competent franchise. If I'm Detroit it's not 'bad' per se to go this route, but it feels like something closer to stalling for time, than adding guys that will be part of a real playoff run in a few years.
  • I have no assumption that Orlando's front office sees it this way, but I think that team really could use an offensive instigator to take the pressure off of Banchero and Wagner. I'd try to find someone who doesn't undermine the size they have on defense, while being a step-function better than Derrick White at breaking down half court defenses off the dribble. If I were them I'd be sweet-talking Donovan Mitchell's agent in hopes that he'd opt out in Cleveland. Or I'd be talking to Atlanta's front office about how low they're willing to sell on Dejounte Murray. I'm not suggesting that either of those players are better or worse than White in a vacuum. But I think both are better fits for what Orlando could really use on offense.
  • I 100% concede that for OKC, White would look great for the next 12 months. I'm guessing he'd hoover up the Carson Wallace/Isaiah Joe/Aaron Wiggins minutes in their rotation, and make the top 6 of that team a step-function stronger. The question for OKC then becomes: how are you paying the bills a year from now? Assuming they continue to operate in small market team constraints (and they may not), then signing White feels like it pushes one of Giddey, Jalen Williams, or Lu Dort out the door. White + their current rotation = clearly better. White instead of someone at the top of their current rotation = maybe better? by some amount?

Anyway. This went on far longer than I meant at the start. Sorry about that.

Like Horford back in the day, one of these teams may well offer White a big deal.

But I'd advice them beforehand to be a little cautious in assuming he's going to have the same impact on team success that he's had in Boston. Because team success is as much about fit within the rotation as it is about individual talent or productivity.


Edit: My understanding is that the other teams that can get to >$30M under the cap are Toronto, Philly, Utah and Charlotte. But in several of those cases they would need to renounce/not resign some of their existing players. So, opportunity cost.
 
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lovegtm

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Fair enough

And since I appear to be in the minority on this one, it makes sense that I explain myself a little bit more.

I don't think we're having a "Do you like Derrick White? Yes or no." debate. We all vote yes, emphatically.

I think we're having a "Are the other teams in question best served by giving Derrick White >$30M as an UFA this summer, or should they be trying to do something better with their money?" debate. And in my mind, that's not so black and white.

In case it's helpful (it might not be) a bunch of us had a similar debate (here and elsewhere, maybe you were a part of it, I don't remember) when Al Horford was approaching free agency back in 2019. And I argued something similar, which was that Al looked great in Boston, but there were only so many teams where he'd play a role that made him similarly valuable on the court, and few of those teams had money. Honestly, at the time I never seriously considered Philly as a place that might sign him. Because trying to design a high-performing offense with Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Horford on the court together made my head hurt, and felt kinda nonsensical. I said that Philly would be better served spending the money on ballhandling shooters/slashers.

Of course, Philly went ahead and signed Al anyway. And it didn't work out. *Not* because Al got any worse. He was more or less the same player in Boston, Philly, and OKC the next year. But in Philly the fit on the court wasn't nearly as good, and the team quickly regretted signing him

The Derrick White free agency has similar 'buyers remorse' risk for (some) other teams. *Not* because Derrick isn't great. But because they might end up with rotation that doesn't complement each other as well as if they'd spent the >$30M on players who'd do different combinations of things.




I didn't go all that far back in this thread looking, so apologies if I missed something. Of the names I saw...

  • Milwaukee, the Knicks, and the Lakers aren't currently projected to have the cap space for more than small-money deals, so for now are out of the running
  • In Detroit, PickSwap would be almost a decade older than Cade, so this doesn't feel like a "build around a new top 2" approach as much as a "pay a vet to babysit the kids while we continue to lose a lot of games; maybe trade him at the deadline for a bunch of picks to a GM who's on the hot seat" On the court this feels like it would be a 'more confident White' version of what we saw when he was in San Antonio, only for a less competent franchise. If I'm Detroit it's not 'bad' per se to go this route, but it feels like something closer to stalling for time, than adding guys that will be part of a real playoff run in a few years.
  • I have no assumption that Orlando's front office sees it this way, but I think that team really could use an offensive instigator to take the pressure off of Banchero and Wagner. I'd try to find someone who doesn't undermine the size they have on defense, while being a step-function better than Derrick White at breaking down half court defenses off the dribble. If I were them I'd be sweet-talking Donovan Mitchell's agent in hopes that he'd opt out in Cleveland. Or I'd be talking to Atlanta's front office about how low they're willing to sell on Dejounte Murray. I'm not suggesting that either of those players are better or worse than White in a vacuum. But I think both are better fits for what Orlando could really use on offense.
  • I 100% concede that for OKC, White would look great for the next 12 months. I'm guessing he'd hoover up the Carson Wallace/Isaiah Joe/Aaron Wiggins minutes in their rotation, and make the top 6 of that team a step-function stronger. The question for OKC then becomes: how are you paying the bills a year from now? Assuming they continue to operate in small market team constraints (and they may not), then signing White feels like it pushes one of Giddey, Jalen Williams, or Lu Dort out the door. White + their current rotation = clearly better. White instead of someone at the top of their current rotation = maybe better? by some amount?

Anyway. This went on far longer than I meant at the start. Sorry about that.

Like Horford back in the day, one of these teams may well offer White a big deal.

But I'd advice them beforehand to be a little cautious in assuming he's going to have the same impact on team success that he's had in Boston. Because team success is as much about fit within the rotation as it is about individual talent or productivity.


Edit: My understanding is that the other teams that can get to >$30M under the cap are Toronto, Philly, Utah and Charlotte. But in several of those cases they would need to renounce/not resign some of their existing players. So, opportunity cost.
Most teams who are under the 2nd apron could work out a S&T, and Boston would likely go along with one in that scenario. Cap room isn't much of a barrier to signing in these cases, because the player has the credible threat of signing with a cap space team, so the team losing the guy always takes picks rather than nothing.
 

InstaFace

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I think we're having a "Are the other teams in question best served by giving Derrick White >$30M as an UFA this summer, or should they be trying to do something better with their money?" debate. And in my mind, that's not so black and white.

<Al Horford analogy>
  • I have no assumption that Orlando's front office sees it this way, but I think that team really could use an offensive instigator to take the pressure off of Banchero and Wagner. I'd try to find someone who doesn't undermine the size they have on defense, while being a step-function better than Derrick White at breaking down half court defenses off the dribble. If I were them I'd be sweet-talking Donovan Mitchell's agent in hopes that he'd opt out in Cleveland. Or I'd be talking to Atlanta's front office about how low they're willing to sell on Dejounte Murray. I'm not suggesting that either of those players are better or worse than White in a vacuum. But I think both are better fits for what Orlando could really use on offense.
  • I 100% concede that for OKC, White would look great for the next 12 months. I'm guessing he'd hoover up the Carson Wallace/Isaiah Joe/Aaron Wiggins minutes in their rotation, and make the top 6 of that team a step-function stronger. The question for OKC then becomes: how are you paying the bills a year from now? Assuming they continue to operate in small market team constraints (and they may not), then signing White feels like it pushes one of Giddey, Jalen Williams, or Lu Dort out the door. White + their current rotation = clearly better. White instead of someone at the top of their current rotation = maybe better? by some amount?

Like Horford back in the day, one of these teams may well offer White a big deal.

But I'd advice them beforehand to be a little cautious in assuming he's going to have the same impact on team success that he's had in Boston. Because team success is as much about fit within the rotation as it is about individual talent or productivity.
So, I largely buy that other teams might be making a mistake if they were to outbid Boston for White in summer 2025. And I think your team-level analysis is on point (i.e., Orlando and OKC are the only teams who can get him who would meaningfully move up in their championship odds by doing so, with Philly perhaps a bit arguable depending on how the next 12 months go).

I suspect there are many factors working in Boston's favor despite this (not that you necessarily disagree, just playing out the reasoning):

  1. Loyalty - Boston traded for him, gave him a great role, and traded a hometown hero in order to expand that role for him, and now they come to the table with every penny they're allowed to hand him. The fans are gushing over him. He's not a big ego, but that's a lot of flattery for anyone.
  2. Contention - He's on the team with the most ring equity in the NBA for the next few years, if he re-signs. If things fall apart in 3 years, he'll still have plenty of opportunity to chase a bigger role, bigger paycheck, or different contending squad later, but for now, this is the best place for him to go from "top-level supporting cast" to "star". And it doesn't hurt that if the team falters, it'll be the Jays who get the blame, not him.
  3. Injury risk mitigation - taking the $31M now means that if (god forbid) he has some gruesome injury in the next 12 months, he's still set. He's betting, what, $5-10M / year in incremental FA earnings, to avoid the risk of losing most if not all of that $31M / yr coming to him if he does his Achilles or something? We all know that's a factor for every player, anyone can Hayward themselves at any time.
  4. Team fit / chemistry - As you note, his role here is one where he's free to do what he does best and isn't asked to do things he's not great at, like create his own shot, or defeat opposing schemes designed around stopping him specifically. Perhaps he could do that very nicely in OKC or even Orlando, but it should give him pause whether the team will play around him the way he's comfortable with. Coaching differences would also come into play.

On the other hand, if #3 doesn't loom large in White's calculus and he chooses to go to FA (perhaps believing, not unreasonably, that he has very low injury risk given his lack-of-history), I suspect that Orlando and OKC and maybe Philly won't hesitate to make a significant bid for him. Despite your valid concerns about whether it would be wise. In particular:

  • There are only so many high-level FAs who come available and the bidding for them is always strong; for these teams, there aren't a whole lot of great alternatives that can improve the team as much as he could, even if there might be some arguably more-optimal uses of their budget
  • His agent also wouldn't mind bumping up what his 5% amounts to, so they generally counsel to swing for the fences
  • They can try to sell him on building a team around "Banchero + White" or "SGA + Chet + White" and making him more of a featured star than a player who arrived late to the foundation that the Jays had already built
  • Coaching can be malleable, and a great coach will pull a Belichick and give him an in-depth breakdown during a visit of how they would play with him on the squad, what they see as the advantages of having him join
  • Ownership can make a case that they're prepared to spend more into the tax than Boston; Philly's owners especially would have credibility in this regard, as Harris and co are a lot richer than Wyc and even Pags
  • On the same basis as Philly talking themselves into a big offer to Al Horford, if they take away a key player from a major rival, it has extra bonus to their championship equity, by weakening a major obstacle in their path

...and so on. So I think even if there are some doubts about role and fit, they can talk themselves into it pretty easily, and maybe even talk White into it as well. In my view, our real shot to keep him is the max-extension offer this summer, perhaps staggered after the Tatum supermax and a Hauser extension so that he can have no doubt about willingness to spend.
 

lovegtm

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It feels like we've taken "Derrick White isn't a #1 option" and turned it into "Derrick White is Draymond Green, and needs an incredibly specific ecosystem around him."

Derrick White is an elite shooting guard who plays 1st team defense (can credibly switch onto 4s now), can attack advantages, and is a very good secondary playmaker. It just isn't hard to make that guy fit on ANY team that has #1 playmakers, which is like 20-25 teams.

He wasn't this guy in San Antonio, which is why his market was thinner when Boston traded for him. He's a MUCH better shooter now, he's gotten a ton stronger on defense, and he's much better at playing off stars. He'd have massive trade interest if he were on the block now.

I agree Boston could extend him this summer if he prioritizes continuity and loyalty. But the idea that he's a hothouse flower who needs Boston to survive is just wrong. He'd fit great tons of places, and tons of places will pursue him if he's available.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I suspect there are many factors working in Boston's favor despite this (not that you necessarily disagree, just playing out the reasoning):

You put forward a good list

It's hard to know for sure, but I might add that the guy seems happy in Boston. He seems to like his coach, his teammates, and the locker room. He seems to like the city. He might not want to shake that up, for all sorts of reasons that guys around 30 decide they don't feel like moving across country for a job

I'm not saying this is going to happen again, but once upon a time Tim Wakefield decided to prioritize staying in a place he liked over other things, and he and his agent acted accordingly


On the other hand... if... he chooses to go to FA I suspect that Orlando and OKC and maybe Philly won't hesitate to make a significant bid for him. Despite your valid concerns about whether it would be wise. In particular:
All good points.

And you may well be right: this might be exactly how it plays out



It feels like we've taken "Derrick White isn't a #1 option" and turned it into "Derrick White is Draymond Green, and needs an incredibly specific ecosystem around him."

FWIW, I think I'm attempting to argue something that is at neither extreme, but somewhere in the middle. However poorly I might be getting the point across.
 

lovegtm

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FWIW, I think I'm attempting to argue something that is at neither extreme, but somewhere in the middle. However poorly I might be getting the point across.
I understand exactly what you're saying, and it's reasonable. I just think you artificially limited the number of suitors by excluding S&Ts, and maybe being a bit too bearish on White's ability to accentuate a wide variety of rosters.
 

Auger34

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You put forward a good list

It's hard to know for sure, but I might add that the guy seems happy in Boston. He seems to like his coach, his teammates, and the locker room. He seems to like the city. He might not want to shake that up, for all sorts of reasons that guys around 30 decide they don't feel like moving across country for a job

I'm not saying this is going to happen again, but once upon a time Tim Wakefield decided to prioritize staying in a place he liked over other things, and he and his agent acted accordingly




All good points.

And you may well be right: this might be exactly how it plays out






FWIW, I think I'm attempting to argue something that is at neither extreme, but somewhere in the middle. However poorly I might be getting the point across.
I know what you are trying to say.

Derrick White is a very good player and could be a great #3 option on another team....however, this team specifically maximizes everything that he does and makes him look better.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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FWIW, I think I'm attempting to argue something that is at neither extreme, but somewhere in the middle. However poorly I might be getting the point across.
You're basically saying that DW has more value to BOS because of his fit than to many other teams. I think that's likely true. I also think that the corollary to this is also likely true - DW probably plays better because he is surrounded by 4 potential All-Stars than he would play in (for example) DET as option #2 or 1B (if they give him a max contract).

I also think it's probably true that there are places where DW's value might plummet (like Al's) because of a really bad fit. Specifically, I think DW is the type of basketball player that needs to be empowered by coaches/teammates. I don't get the feeling that he's a guy that is going to walk into a locker room and demand the ball or demand shots. Because of this, I think DW would be a horrible fit in PHI. Embiid wants the ball all of the time and when he doesn't have the ball, he and Maxey are running PnRs. I mean DW doesn't have to have the ball all of the time to be effective but a good part of his value is that he can create and run PnR when he does have the ball and when his teammates empower him to play his game.

PHI needs someone and I think they are going to sign the best player they can get and work out fit later but I personally wouldn't count them as having much of a chance to land DW. Hope I'm not wrong about this.
 

Auger34

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You're basically saying that DW has more value to BOS because of his fit than to many other teams. I think that's likely true. I also think that the corollary to this is also likely true - DW probably plays better because he is surrounded by 4 potential All-Stars than he would play in (for example) DET as option #2 or 1B (if they give him a max contract).

I also think it's probably true that there are places where DW's value might plummet (like Al's) because of a really bad fit. Specifically, I think DW is the type of basketball player that needs to be empowered by coaches/teammates. I don't get the feeling that he's a guy that is going to walk into a locker room and demand the ball or demand shots. Because of this, I think DW would be a horrible fit in PHI. Embiid wants the ball all of the time and when he doesn't have the ball, he and Maxey are running PnRs. I mean DW doesn't have to have the ball all of the time to be effective but a good part of his value is that he can create and run PnR when he does have the ball and when his teammates empower him to play his game.

PHI needs someone and I think they are going to sign the best player they can get and work out fit later but I personally wouldn't count them as having much of a chance to land DW. Hope I'm not wrong about this.
The bolded is absolutely true. DW doesn't seem to have the natural confidence that the other players at his level do. It's something that he has openly talked about.
 

lovegtm

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As an intellectual exercise, people need to try and make a stronger case for why DWhite would be awesome on other teams. Everyone is searching for the evidence for why he'd be less valuable, to convince themselves it's really likely the Cs can re-sign him at $31/year.