Danny and the 18/19 Picks

[Marbleheader]

First, there seems to be a bit of revisionist history in the Boston media regarding the Lakers/Brooklyn Picks and their value prior to the Kyrie trade.

In looking at the threads from last year, the top assets, etc. it was pretty clear the consensus was that the Nets pick was regarded as the more valuable asset. There was a relatively short window of time that the Celtics held both, but what is in those threads reinforces what I remembered.

I find it unlikely that Danny had the choice to send either pick and saw the Lakers/Sac pick as the better asset, particularly given the protections and the new draft rules going into effect next year. The Nets pick was THE asset in getting Kyrie and I don't think you'll find many Celtics fans that wouldn't make that trade.

The one minor quibble I have in the pick deals is that I think Danny should have left himself the option to take the Lakers pick or roll the dice on 2019 Sacramento. If the Lakers pick ended up being, say, 6th overall in a strong draft, I'm not sure I wouldn't rather make the pick there and get the player a year earlier. If that scenario played out I think we would be hearing a lot of second guessing.

I do wonder what Danny is thinking on the 2019 pick, and what a top 1 protected pick has in trade value. Does it have value this off season, or will he have to hold on to it until the 2019 draft order is set to be able to get value for it?

 

[BigMike]

The pick certainly has value, an i do think the most wise move would be Robert to capitalize on it this year. But the value is somewhat limited. Personally I look at the value as being similar to a 10-14 picking this year's draft.

Sure if you wait for 2019 the value could go up a bit, but it could drop as well. I do think the Vs should be focused most on final pieces to make 2019-2023 championship driven seasons, rather than sorry about some who might mature near the end of that

 

[tims4wins]

Is there anything to the idea that, because the Celts have both Jaylen and Jayson, that waiting a year to add another top talent might actually be beneficial? Let the young guys grow for another year, integrate Hayward, then in a year’s time they can replenish some aging talent. It might not increase their odds at a 2019 title but it might extend the window a little bit. With all of the talent on the roster a top 5 pick in 2018 might not actually move the needle a ton in terms of 2019 title odds. But this may br wishful thinking on my part.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Interesting discussion. I wish we had the pick this year so that we could lock in the asset. If we had no protection and got LA’s pick no matter what, you’d be looking at guys like one of the Bridges, Zhaire Smith, or maybe even Carter/Bamba if they slip a little. All would be useful pieces but they probably wouldn’t make a huge impact next season barring something unforeseen.

Now, there is certainly potential to improve on it next year. If Sac finishes bottom 3, they’re locked in at 14% chance of #1. If they finish #10, they’re only around 3%. The overwhelming odds are that this pick falls somewhere in the 2-10 range. Sac is going to suck next year and the pick is not likely to fall #1. You’d certainly need to discount it a little for the potential slip into the 20s if we get Sixers’ pick instead but I think it’s a pretty firm asset for trading purposes.

If Danny were to trade the pick, I don’t really know what he’d want to do with it other than being part of a big deal like for AD. We’re all set at PG. SG is Jaylen’s for the next decade. SF is all set with Hayward next year. Tatum will play PF. And Horford has C. Are we going to trade a lotto pick for a bench guy? Not likely unless it’s a young big that could potentially replace Horford. But I don’t see any available.

Thus, I’d be pretty surprised if Danny traded either the Sac or Memphis picks this summer. I don’t see a big fish like AD becoming available and I don’t think the return of anything else would be worth it. I would just keep the pick, play the odds, and draft a nice player in the 2-10 range next year.

 

[lovegtm]

Is there anything to the idea that, because the Celts have both Jaylen and Jayson, that waiting a year to add another top talent might actually be beneficial? Let the young guys grow for another year, integrate Hayward, then in a year’s time they can replenish some aging talent. It might not increase their odds at a 2019 title but it might extend the window a little bit. With all of the talent on the roster a top 5 pick in 2018 might not actually move the needle a ton in terms of 2019 title odds. But this may br wishful thinking on my part.

In addition to the development considerations, which are very real, it doesn't look like there are as many disgruntled/out-the-door stars as in recent years, so there's value in having the pick delay until later, when there might be.

Obviously if the C's get the 2/3 pick this year that's better, but there are some silver linings if not.

 

[mikeot]

All I see here is pieces of a deal for Anthony Davis.

 

[Koufax]

Anthony Davis is not walking through that door so if that's all you see then we might as well light them on fire. Me, I think that they are potential pieces the way Terry Rozier is now.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

All I see here is pieces of a deal for Anthony Davis.

Yup. We are all in waiting mode until Demps is fired and the new GM gets to make his mark by building his team and securing a 4-year rebuilding window with many of our future picks and some of our young future stars.

Until then however nothing can happen with New Orleans as Demps is all in with Brow and Boogie.

 

[NoXInNixon]

Let's say Sacramento ends up with the 6 or 7 pick. Bamba is available. Danny offers them their own 2019 first back, which obviously has more value to them than anyone else since they control their own tanking, plus the better of the Clippers or Memphis pick. That should close to get it done. I lust for Bamba on the Celtics.

 

[bowiac]

Let's say Sacramento ends up with the 6 or 7 pick. Bamba is available. Danny offers them their own 2019 first back, which obviously has more value to them than anyone else since they control their own tanking, plus the better of the Clippers or Memphis pick. That should close to get it done. I lust for Bamba on the Celtics.

This is clever, but I can't imagine this working due to the #1 overall protection on the Sacramento pick. There's nothing the Celtics can offer them to protect them from that.

 

[InstaFace]

This is clever, but I can't imagine this working due to the #1 overall protection on the Sacramento pick. There's nothing the Celtics can offer them to protect them from that.

You can offer them all rights we've acquired from Philly, to wit, "the better of PHI or SAC pick, unless either is #1 in which case you get the other". While PHI is unlikely to be a lottery pick, nevermind high lottery, that is still some form of compensation for the #1-overall protection. And also we're shipping them another 1st-rounder.

I'm not sure I do that deal if I'm Ainge, but I think SAC could be made to say yes with something along those lines.

 

[nighthob]

You can offer them all rights we've acquired from Philly, to wit, "the better of PHI or SAC pick, unless either is #1 in which case you get the other". While PHI is unlikely to be a lottery pick, nevermind high lottery, that is still some form of compensation for the #1-overall protection. And also we're shipping them another 1st-rounder.

I'm not sure I do that deal if I'm Ainge, but I think SAC could be made to say yes with something along those lines.

Sacramento would have a non zero chance of trading a mid lottery pick in a great draft for a low first round pick. Unless Boston could convince Philly to drop the protections on the 2019 pick it wouldn’t happen.

 

[lovegtm]

Posters on this board are much more concerned with hedging out volatility than Danny Ainge is.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Practically speaking, Ainge already won that trade, even if we wind up with Philly's crappy pick. I think Fultz has talent and will have a career, but unless he develops into a competent shooter (possible but far from assured), Tatum is the better player.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Practically speaking, Ainge already won that trade, even if we wind up with Philly's crappy pick. I think Fultz has talent and will have a career, but unless he develops into a competent shooter (possible but far from assured), Tatum is the better player.

It really is remarkable. We'll likely never know if Ainge had any intelligence on Fultz' makeup or if he had grouped them together, drafted the better positional fit, and received an extra lottery pick for his troubles. I'm in the camp of the latter but I wonder what the legend of this trade looks like in a couple decades. Auerbachian.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Wrong thread

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It really is remarkable. We'll likely never know if Ainge had any intelligence on Fultz' makeup or if he had grouped them together, drafted the better positional fit, and received an extra lottery pick for his troubles. I'm in the camp of the latter but I wonder what the legend of this trade looks like in a couple decades. Auerbachian.

The Pierce/Garnett trade was Auerbachian even if we don't get another top pick for Fultz.

 

[Reverend]

The Pierce/Garnett trade was Auerbachian even if we don't get another top pick for Fultz.

Let's not forget that he got KG from McHale, too.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

The Pierce/Garnett trade was Auerbachian even if we don't get another top pick for Fultz.

Both KG trades were legendary with the latter setting the stage for such a strong rebuild. It's GOAT-type stuff.

 

[nighthob]

Both KG trades were legendary with the latter setting the stage for such a strong rebuild. It's GOAT-type stuff.

A friend of mine (a Lakers fan that wanted Tatum rather than Ball) joked to me last summer, “I know Pierce & Garnett only played on one title winner, but they’d better get credit for the other five that they’re delivering Boston.”

 

[Al Zarilla]

Every time I see this thread I think it's going to be Danny and the Juniors (At the Hop).

 

[nighthob]

You can offer them all rights we've acquired from Philly, to wit, "the better of PHI or SAC pick, unless either is #1 in which case you get the other". While PHI is unlikely to be a lottery pick, nevermind high lottery, that is still some form of compensation for the #1-overall protection. And also we're shipping them another 1st-rounder.

I'm not sure I do that deal if I'm Ainge, but I think SAC could be made to say yes with something along those lines.

You know what? I thought of a way that it could work, but probably wouldn't be feasible. If it were a three way trade where Philly shipped the LA pick and its rights to the Sacramento pick back to the Kings for Rozier, while Boston got the Kings pick this year. But if you're Boston and Philly would trade a late lottery pick and strip the protection from the 2019 one for Rozier, why would you bother including Sacramento?