Cora, Cora, Cora!

[dhappy42]

If there was WAR for managers, what do you think Alex Cora’s WAR would be?

Sometimes, I think he should be manager of the year considering how he’s kept this mediocre and oft-injured team in the wild card race.

Other times, like during the recent 1-2 series against the Giants, I think his lineup and in-game decisions are terrible. For example, sitting Duran and Casas against lefties makes no sense to me.

 

[cantor44]

This thread is sorta game-thread-y, but I will say, yes, yesterday was baffling. Casas is the hottest hitter on the planet and you sit him in one of the most important games of the year? I know the arms were running thin, but throwing out the new dude, a career minor leaguer, in extra innings, was not gonna end well: you knew it the minute you saw him. Again, in an incredibly important game?

What we don't ever fully know though, and I try to remind myself: who is hurting? I'm sure half of challenge of being a manager is navigating player health, especially the kind of injuries that don't require IL, but do effect the player. Then again, both Duran and Casas were quickly inserted into the game, so ....

 

[LogansDad]

This thread is sorta game-thread-y, but I will say, yes, yesterday was baffling. Casas is the hottest hitter on the planet and you sit him in one of the most important games of the year? I know the arms were running thin, but throwing out the new dude, a career minor leaguer, in extra innings, was not gonna end well: you knew it the minute you saw him. Again, in an incredibly important game?

What we don't ever fully know though, and I try to remind myself: who is hurting? I'm sure half of challenge of being a manager is navigating player health, especially the kind of injuries that don't require IL, but do effect the player. Then again, both Duran and Casas were quickly inserted into the game, so ....

1 game at the end of July against a National League West team is one of the most important games of the year? Holy hyperbole, Batman.

That said, I have found Cora's bullpen management confusing at times this year (going all the way back to the double header against the Rays, when he went Winckowski for 1, Martin and Kenley for 1 in the first game, which led to Kenley having to pitch twice in one day), but the results, I think, kind of speak for themselves. I love watching this team, though I admit it has some serious flaws, and injuries plus lack of depth could have really sunk the team, but Cora has stayed steady and kept the team playing hard and in the race through at least the end of July.

I don't know that I could assign a WAR value, but I think he is mostly a net positive for the team in a season full of turmoil.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

This thread is sorta game-thread-y, but I will say, yes, yesterday was baffling. Casas is the hottest hitter on the planet and you sit him in one of the most important games of the year? I know the arms were running thin, but throwing out the new dude, a career minor leaguer, in extra innings, was not gonna end well: you knew it the minute you saw him. Again, in an incredibly important game?

What we don't ever fully know though, and I try to remind myself: who is hurting? I'm sure half of challenge of being a manager is navigating player health, especially the kind of injuries that don't require IL, but do effect the player. Then again, both Duran and Casas were quickly inserted into the game, so ....

Jansen was unavailable per third day in a row. Rodriguez went on the IL just after the game. Pivetta is starting today. What choice did Cora have for the 11th?

 

[YTF]

On the surface it's maddening the neither Duran or Casas started yesterday. That said, we have no idea what the remainder of the lineup might have looked like had they started. The starting CF and 1B both hit home runs. There was a way to work them all into the starting nine, but we have no idea how that might have affected things.

 

[YTF]

Jansen was unavailable per third day in a row. Rodriguez went on the IL just after the game. Pivetta is starting today. What choice did Cora have for the 11th?

Yup, bullpen wise I think Cora tried his best to win before he ran out of options. The offense wasn't AWOL in extras.

 

[gryoung]

I was dismayed yesterday in the 10th when he had the fastest guy on the team as the ghost runner at 2nd to start the inning and didn't try to bunt him to 3rd. He could score from 3rd in a number of ways, including a slow rolling infield out.

Seemed pretty passive.

 

[dhappy42]

Jansen was unavailable per third day in a row. Rodriguez went on the IL just after the game. Pivetta is starting today. What choice did Cora have for the 11th?

Janson threw one pitch on Friday. Hardly over-taxed.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Janson threw one pitch on Friday. Hardly over-taxed.

He threw an inning Friday and one pitch Saturday. That would make Sunday the third day in a row.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I was dismayed yesterday in the 10th when he had the fastest guy on the team as the ghost runner at 2nd to start the inning and didn't try to bunt him to 3rd. He could score from 3rd in a number of ways, including a slow rolling infield out.

Seemed pretty passive.

I have no idea, but is Refsnyder a good bunter? A fly ball would have accomplished the same thing, or even driven in a run if the ball fell in.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I was dismayed yesterday in the 10th when he had the fastest guy on the team as the ghost runner at 2nd to start the inning and didn't try to bunt him to 3rd. He could score from 3rd in a number of ways, including a slow rolling infield out.

Seemed pretty passive.

I made a lengthy post elsewhere about this elsewhere. The road team swings away 92% of the time. In the 8% that the road team bunts, the chances of scoring decrease by 3% and the chances of winning decreases by 7% because you're playing for one run. You have to assume that the home team will score a run in the bottom half of the inning - which it does 67% of the time by bunting.
So if you're the home team, bunt away. But if you're the road team, you have to play for the big inning. Cora did nothing wrong here.

 

[dhappy42]

I made a lengthy post elsewhere about this elsewhere. The road team swings away 92% of the time. In the 8% that the road team bunts, the chances of scoring decrease by 3% and the chances of winning decreases by 7% because you're playing for one run. You have to assume that the home team will score a run in the bottom half of the inning - which it does 67% of the time by bunting.
So if you're the home team, bunt away. But if you're the road team, you have to play for the big inning. Cora did nothing wrong here.

I’ve been wondering how the Manfred man changes extra-innings strategy. Can you post a link to your data source?

 

[richgedman'sghost]

Jansen was unavailable per third day in a row. Rodriguez went on the IL just after the game. Pivetta is starting today. What choice did Cora have for the 11th?

Why couldn't Jansen pitch 3 days in a row? He threw one freaking pitch on Saturday that was hit out. There has to be exceptions made. If Jansen had come into game with runners on and picked a guy off is he still unavailable yesterday? I mean come on... one pitch and he's unavailable???

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

I’ve been wondering how the Manfred man changes extra-innings strategy. Can you post a link to your data source?

https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/03/should-mlb-teams-be-bunting-the-ghost-runner-to-third/

 

[bosockboy]

Why couldn't Jansen pitch 3 days in a row? He threw one freaking pitch on Saturday that was hit out. There has to be exceptions made. If Jansen had come into game with runners on and picked a guy off is he still unavailable yesterday? I mean come on... one pitch and he's unavailable???

He still throws hard getting loose each appearance.

 

[trekfan55]

He still throws hard getting loose each appearance.

Yes, that counts as well.

When a "mop up" guy makes the game too close and the closer or setup man has to warm up it stinks because of this.

Tito mentioned in his book that he made notes of the pitchers who warmed up too and that played a big role in his bullpen decisions.

 

[AB in DC]

And Jansen is really a terrible pitcher on 0 days rest -- see other thread.

 

[benhogan]

This thread is sorta game-thread-y, but I will say, yes, yesterday was baffling. Casas is the hottest hitter on the planet and you sit him in one of the most important games of the year? I know the arms were running thin, but throwing out the new dude, a career minor leaguer, in extra innings, was not gonna end well: you knew it the minute you saw him. Again, in an incredibly important game?

What we don't ever fully know though, and I try to remind myself: who is hurting? I'm sure half of challenge of being a manager is navigating player health, especially the kind of injuries that don't require IL, but do effect the player. Then again, both Duran and Casas were quickly inserted into the game, so ....

It felt like a big series (like the 2 games with ATL)
BUT at this point, games against American League teams, vying for the playoffs, are more important.

 

[scottyno]

I have no idea, but is Refsnyder a good bunter? A fly ball would have accomplished the same thing, or even driven in a run if the ball fell in.

He has 1 career sac bunt (it was this year at least) so probably not. If he tried to bunt and didn't advance the runner people would have been killing Cora for playing for 1 run with a guy that doesn't bunt.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I would have left Crawford in for one more inning yesterday. Perhaps it wouldn’t have changed the outcome since Schreiber was still coming in and he doesn’t look good at all in his 2 appearances since returning.
Crawford got into a little trouble but got out of it unscathed. Also possible that he asked to not go out for 6 after that escape act…

 

[joe dokes]

I would have left Crawford in for one more inning yesterday. Perhaps it wouldn’t have changed the outcome since Schreiber was still coming in and he doesn’t look good at all in his 2 appearances since returning.
Crawford got into a little trouble but got out of it unscathed. Also possible that he asked to not go out for 6 after that escape act…

FWIW--Merloni on the radio was noticing a drop in velocity and some badly placed (but swung at and missed) off speed stuff in his last inning of work.

I would've liked a LHP to face Raleigh. But not sure if his RHP-favorable split would be offset by the RHB split of whichever Sox LH reliever was available.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I would have left Crawford in for one more inning yesterday. Perhaps it wouldn’t have changed the outcome since Schreiber was still coming in and he doesn’t look good at all in his 2 appearances since returning.
Crawford got into a little trouble but got out of it unscathed. Also possible that he asked to not go out for 6 after that escape act…

Schreiber's last performance had been Sunday, and he was great. 2 IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Schreiber's last performance had been Sunday, and he was great. 2 IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K

I missed that…. Thanks. I thought he had only done the opener game and yesterday. I take it all back!

 

[AB in DC]

FWIW--Merloni on the radio was noticing a drop in velocity and some badly placed (but swung at and missed) off speed stuff in his last inning of work.

That may be true, but a 3-0 lead in the sixth is exactly when you want to try and steal a few outs before turning to the bullpen. Particularly with Winck/Martin/Jansen all used the day before.

 

[catomatic]

FWIW--Merloni on the radio was noticing a drop in velocity and some badly placed (but swung at and missed) off speed stuff in his last inning of work.

I would've liked a LHP to face Raleigh. But not sure if his RHP-favorable split would be offset by the RHB split of whichever Sox LH reliever was available.

As soon as I saw Schreiber’s 4-Seamer sitting at 91-92 against Raleigh, I became immediately fearful of the outcome of that matchup. Wish my fears had been misplaced, but if that’s the highest octane gas you’ve got, against a legit good LH hitter, there will likely be damage.

Do we think he lost arm strength on the shelf, is afraid to air it out, or what? Concerning.

 

[joe dokes]

That may be true, but a 3-0 lead in the sixth is exactly when you want to try and steal a few outs before turning to the bullpen. Particularly with Winck/Martin/Jansen all used the day before.

That would've also been OK to me.
I suppose the reasoning is better to saddle the less-good relievers with a clean inning, than risk having to enter in a jam. Obviously it didn't work out.

 

[jbupstate]

The at bat by Raleigh was outstanding. Schreiber made a great pitch with two strikes that Raleigh barely fouled off out of Wong’s glove. if Wong can somehow squeeze that the Sox probably win the game. Baseball is a game of millimeters.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Sorry, I think Cora completely mismanaged this game. It was managerial malpractice to send Schreiber back out for a second inning after a two run 27 pitch inning. If you want to use Bleier, fine, but give him a clean 7th against the bottom of the order, and have the usual high leverage guys ready behind him.

No relievers of consequence pitched Monday. Today is an off day. It's very likely that tomorrow will be a wash. "We wanted to stay away from some guys". Bullshit. It should have been all hands on deck to win that series. There's no reason a major league reliever can't go two days in a row sandwiched by off days.

 

[Al Zarilla]

That may be true, but a 3-0 lead in the sixth is exactly when you want to try and steal a few outs before turning to the bullpen. Particularly with Winck/Martin/Jansen all used the day before.

That's two early-mid inning 3-0 Sox leads that turned into losses recently (the Mets suspended game the other). Did O'Brien or anybody profess "when the Red Sox get a three run lead, they are (large number) to 1 to win the game"?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

That's two early-mid inning 3-0 Sox leads that turned into losses recently (the Mets suspended game the other). Did O'Brien or anybody profess "when the Red Sox get a three run lead, they are (large number) to 1 to win the game"?

I don't know if anyone mentioned it in the broadcast, but they were something like 45-2 with the lead after six innings coming into yesterday's game.

 

[Al Zarilla]

I don't know if anyone mentioned it in the broadcast, but they were something like 45-2 with the lead after six innings coming into yesterday's game.

So that's any lead at all, and they had a 3 run lead yesterday. That stings.

 

[AB in DC]

After six it was 3-2, but yeah.

 

[Moviegoer]

Cora is still terrible at game managing. You would think that would be one of the most important part of his job.

 

[catomatic]

Cora is still terrible at game managing. You would think that would be one of the most important part of his job.

The lack of urgency manifest in a noteworthy number of his pitching substitutions is echoed by the lack of team emphasis on defense and base running. These are parts of the game over which players and coaches have a good amount of control and the laissez-faire approach of this organization — going back years now is absolutely exasperating.

I don’t know whether Cora doesn’t want to offend professionals or risk tightening them up under the big magnifying-glass that is Boston/Fenway, or if it’s just that he hasn’t surrounded himself with the right whistle & clipboard guys — but I find it hard to root ardently for a team that fails repeatedly to address those aspects of competition that are in their control.

Whatever the explanation, the glaring deficiencies, whether he appreciates this or not, reflect directly on him and his inability to take a player’s slack focus and make it taut.

I’ve heard nothing about a kangaroo court on any recent Sox teams. Could be my oversight but that feels like a tradition worthy of resurrection. I’d nominate Justin Turner to run the thing.

 

[Benj4ever]

Sorry, I think Cora completely mismanaged this game. It was managerial malpractice to send Schreiber back out for a second inning after a two run 27 pitch inning. If you want to use Bleier, fine, but give him a clean 7th against the bottom of the order, and have the usual high leverage guys ready behind him.

No relievers of consequence pitched Monday. Today is an off day. It's very likely that tomorrow will be a wash. "We wanted to stay away from some guys". Bullshit. It should have been all hands on deck to win that series. There's no reason a major league reliever can't go two days in a row sandwiched by off days.

Seriously! I mean, how is this reasoning: "I took Crawford out because he was tiring and running out of gas, but I kept Schreiber in even though he had nothing at all."? I mean, yeah, that's great if you're trying to lose, but otherwise it's idiotic!

 

[Benj4ever]

The lack of urgency manifest in a noteworthy number of his pitching substitutions is echoed by the lack of team emphasis on defense and base running. These are parts of the game over which players and coaches have a good amount of control and the laissez-faire approach of this organization — going back years now is absolutely exasperating.

I don’t know whether Cora doesn’t want to offend professionals or risk tightening them up under the big magnifying-glass that is Boston/Fenway, or if it’s just that he hasn’t surrounded himself with the right whistle & clipboard guys — but I find it hard to root ardently for a team that fails repeatedly to address those aspects of competition that are in their control.

Whatever the explanation, the glaring deficiencies, whether he appreciates this or not, reflect directly on him and his inability to take a player’s slack focus and make it taut.

I’ve heard nothing about a kangaroo court on any recent Sox teams. Could be my oversight but that feels like a tradition worthy of resurrection. I’d nominate Justin Turner to run the thing.

Someone needs to hand Raffy a note telling him that after he screws up a play, he's got to get off of his butt and go cover his position! The collision play with Chang was the second time during the road trip when he pulled a stunt like that!

 

[Archer1979]

With a depleted and overworked bullpen, Cora is managing like he did in the playoffs in that he's managing outs every game. With them in two bullpen game-mode for two spots int he rotation, it's a house of cards if one of them doesn't deliver. Someone craps the bed, he's pretty much screwed.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Llovera down by 2?
Sorry to game thread here but that’s a move you make when you’re down by 4 in the 7th

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Who are you gonna use, Winckowski? Only have so many RH relievers. They knew where the arrow was pointing for this game, tough to burn your best guys when the win probability isn’t great.

wonder if they were hesitant to go to Winckowski after Schreiber’s blow up the other night?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Who are you gonna use, Winckowski? Only have so many RH relievers. They knew where the arrow was pointing for this game, tough to burn your best guys when the win probability isn’t great.

wonder if they were hesitant to go to Winckowski after Schreiber’s blow up the other night?

Yes Winchowski. They were down by 1 in the 5th.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Yes Winchowski. They were down by 1 in the 5th.

Difficult to pull your starter in the fifth when you’ve got a few bullpen games coming up.

It’s gonna be a slog until they get some arms back.

 

[Bergs]

Blaming Cora for the current pitching situation is hilariously stupid. I often find myself on the fence with him as an in-game manager, but he's been threading a lot of needles this season.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Blaming Cora for the current pitching situation is hilariously stupid. I often find myself on the fence with him as an in-game manager, but he's been threading a lot of needles this season.

I’m not blaming Cora for the “current pitching situation”, which is tough….. but throwing a guy in who should be used in later innings with larger scoring differentials is a poor choice there. Yes… outcome (line the Schreiber game) may not have changed, but down one run with 4 innings to go you play to win, and bring in Winchowski for 2, hope they score 2 then close it. If they don’t score…. Then you go with Llovero or Bleier to finish. You still have a rested pen

 

[simplicio]

Coming out of the 5th they had a 21% win probability. With 2 bullpen games coming up I think that's exactly where you put in a junk guy.

Also it was 4-2 going into the 6th, not sure where you're getting down by 1 from.

 

[Tony Pena's Gas Cloud]

Coming out of the 5th they had a 21% win probability. With 2 bullpen games coming up I think that's exactly where you put in a junk guy.

Also it was 4-2 going into the 6th, not sure where you're getting down by 1 from.

Right, which makes Cora's dicking around with the bullpen on Wednesday even more egregious. The guys he was "staying away" from never appeared last night.

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/itsbrianbarrett/status/1687836837081980928?s=20

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Coming out of the 5th they had a 21% win probability. With 2 bullpen games coming up I think that's exactly where you put in a junk guy.

Also it was 4-2 going into the 6th, not sure where you're getting down by 1 from.

Don't know why I thought it was 4-3, but I still think you try to win that game and Llovera is a white flag. It doesn't really matter, as they didn't score anyways, but I do wonder (since everyone on SoSH seemingly could read how players "felt" about no big trades happening, I think I have some leverage to offer armchair psychology) if the teams have a little fight go out of them when "white flag" pitchers get tossed into the game. And yeah, it doesn't make sense why he was not going for the win on Wednesday then either.

 

[simplicio]

At 4-3 I'd agree with Llovera being malpractice, at 4-2 I think you just have to play the numbers.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Let’s say you use Winckowski for two innings, and still lose. Now he’s probably not available today. And you start Schreiber as an opener, so you are down to just Martin as RH set up man (that you want to use in a tight game). Not ideal, and may end up to using Llovera in a tighter spot. Delicate balance here- going all out to win a game you are probably going to lose may hurt you the next game, too. Not sure what the right answer is- but I do think a lot of this is a direct result of all the bullpen games.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Let’s say you use Winckowski for two innings, and still lose. Now he’s probably not available today. And you start Schreiber as an opener, so you are down to just Martin as RH set up man (that you want to use in a tight game). Not ideal, and may end up to using Llovera in a tighter spot. Delicate balance here- going all out to win a game you are probably going to lose may hurt you the next game, too. Not sure what the right answer is- but I do think a lot of this is a direct result of all the bullpen games.

Definitely a delicate balance, and the fact that they've pretty much handled Martin with kid gloves all season is a factor as well. I think yesterday was fine, and have a much bigger issue with Wednesday. My general feeling is that when you have a lead and a day off the next day, you do whatever you can to lock down the win. When you're behind in the first game of a series, it's a lot less clear cut.