Contract Conundrum: Do We Sign Jrue, Derrick, Sam? For How Much?

[Imbricus]

How much will it cost to keep the heart of this team intact? Can we? For how much? I thought it was worth breaking out a thread, what with key extensions etc. coming up soon. The overview:

Jrue Holiday, 33, earning $34.95 million this year, with a $39.4 million player option for '24-'25. Holiday is apparently eligible to sign a one- or two-year extension this month, but a longer extension on April 1.

Derrick White, 29, earning $18.4 million this year, $19.6 million in '24-'25. White can be signed up to June 30, 2025.

Sam Hauser, 26, earning $1.93 million this year (big underpay) and about $2 million next year. Will be an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

My priorities for resigning/extending: (1) White (2) Holiday (3) Hauser.

First, with White: He's probably looking for a payday. Would he take $28-$30 million per year over four years? Would Brad go up to $35 million per? Where to draw the line: at $40 million per? White doesn't seem like he's going to try to wring out every dollar, but he's taken a leap since the San Antonio trade.

Holiday: I think the best hope here is, since he's already gotten paid and is moving into his mid-thirties, he might be content with a long deal for smaller money than he's getting. What about four years at $30 million per? Could we get him at $23-$26 million per? With Holiday, I have to think Brad already had some ballpark figure in mind, before he pulled the trigger on the trade.

Hauser: Do we just wave goodbye, as in there isn't enough money? Or could we preemptively lock him in after this season at something reasonable, say $10 million to $12 million per, which should be a very tradeable contract, and maybe he signs for long-term security?

I'm curious about what everyone thinks. I'm not a cap-ologist and haven't crunched the numbers, and not sure how much finagling can be done, plus the cap is a moving target anyway, and new penalties are coming up in a couple of years ... so what do we do?

Edit: tweaked wording on new penalties

 

[Devizier]

I think Kyle Lowry is your reference for Holiday.

In the sign and trade with Miami, he signed a 3/85 contract. If you adjust for the salary cap, the numbers come out to almost perfectly 3/100 for an equivalent contract today. The Celtics may be able to get something of a discount but I wouldn’t expect a massive one.

 

[lovegtm]

How much will it cost to keep the heart of this team intact? Can we? For how much? I thought it was worth breaking out a thread, what with key extensions etc. coming up soon. The overview:

Jrue Holiday, 33, earning $34.95 million this year, with a $39.4 million player option for '24-'25. Holiday is apparently eligible to sign a one- or two-year extension this month, but a longer extension on April 1.

Derrick White, 29, earning $18.4 million this year, $19.6 million in '24-'25. White can be signed up to June 30, 2025.

Sam Hauser, 26, earning $1.93 million this year (big underpay) and about $2 million next year. Will be an unrestricted free agent in 2025.

My priorities for resigning/extending: (1) White (2) Holiday (3) Hauser.

First, with White: He's probably looking for a payday. Would he take $28-$30 million per year over four years? Would Brad go up to $35 million per? Where to draw the line: at $40 million per? White doesn't seem like he's going to try to wring out every dollar, but he's taken a leap since the San Antonio trade.

Holiday: I think the best hope here is, since he's already gotten paid and is moving into his mid-thirties, he might be content with a long deal for smaller money than he's getting. What about four years at $30 million per? Could we get him at $23-$26 million per? With Holiday, I have to think Brad already had some ballpark figure in mind, before he pulled the trigger on the trade.

Hauser: Do we just wave goodbye, as in there isn't enough money? Or could we preemptively lock him in after this season at something reasonable, say $10 million to $12 million per, which should be a very tradeable contract, and maybe he signs for long-term security?

I'm curious about what everyone thinks. I'm not a cap-ologist and haven't crunched the numbers, and not sure how much finagling can be done, plus the cap is a moving target anyway, and new penalties are coming up in a couple of years ... so what do we do?

Edit: tweaked wording on new penalties

1. Holiday. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a deal in place to extend him at the time the trade was made. I'd guess something like 3-4 years and 29-33 per.

2. DWhite: you have to pay him at this point. He'd get 40+ on the open market easily (see FVV), so you have to sell him on fit & role. The problem here is that I think he can only add 140% in an extension, so they can't pay him until he's a UFA. I'm sure the team will offer the max it can, but this probably doesn't get resolved until summer 2025.

3. Hauser: he's very good, and would get a nice contract in UFA, but he's not playing starter minutes, and a 2024-25 shooting slump (a la Robinson or Bertans) would cost him a LOT of money. I bet he can be had for 10-12 per, just because, while he's had a nice year, he hasn't popped to "obvious starter" yet. If he were entering UFA this summer, that would suck, and the Cs would probably be priced out.

tldr sign everybody, but there's going to be a trade at some point

 

[PRabbit]

White/Hauser/Holliday. That's just mostly due to age and I'm not a huge fan of extending an aging PG for 35m-40m per year, which is what I think it's gonna take. If he'll take 30, extend. Gauge his value in the trade market otherwise.

Offer White around 30m and Hauser 12m per for 3-4 years.

 

[benhogan]

My guesstimates pretty much align with the crowd, Brad extends:
1. Jrue in April. KP extension money. It was probably outlined with Glushon before the trade. ~$30MM/yr
2. White in July. 3+1 at ~$30MM/yr (does the full 140%)
3. Hauser in July. 2+1 at ~$10MM/yr

Also think he gets 2+1 done with Tillman and/or Kornet at ~5MM/yr

Wyc will pay massive taxes. BUT if he gets queasy ahead of 2025-26 (JTs Super Max kicks in) then he should divest part of his stake to a deep-pocketed Gambling/lodging outfit (Cuban deal) to monetize, reduce exposure, & retain control.
OR If Wyc refuses to divest and doesn't want to pay hugely to the Tax Man, then shop Brown's long-dated contract to teams incapable of attracting All-NBA players.

This team is in great shape contract-wise, which is a credit to Zarren/Brad.

 

[Ed Hillel]

My guess is we do 1 more year with the same core, then ship Jaylen for a combo of solid wing on good contract, expiring contract, and draft assets galore. I don’t think Wyc will pay what is required for an extended amount of time if he believes Jaylen can fetch a big return for less cost and potentially start extending the window even longer, which he likely can. It might even happen this offseason.

 

[NomarsFool]

I just don’t believe trading Jaylen makes the team better. Basketball, more than any other sport, relies on having the best possible starters vs depth. I’m not saying depth isn’t useful, it’s just much less useful. Keep the Jays together and win a couple banners and the Celtics market value keeps going up and up.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If DW and Jrue want to sign extensions, the Cs have to do it but things get dicier if they go to FA.

Seems to me that from a cap standpoint if DW or Jrue walk for nothing, the Cs will have a very hard time getting someone with the same skill level.

My guess is we do 1 more year with the same core, then ship Jaylen for a combo of solid wing on good contract, expiring contract, and draft assets galore. I don’t think Wyc will pay what is required for an extended amount of time if he believes Jaylen can fetch a big return for less cost and potentially start extending the window even longer, which he likely can. It might even happen this offseason.

Shipping JB, who is at the cusp of All-NBA for a solid wing would dramatically reduce the Cs chances at winning a championship, and I don't see how that sits well with the person the Cs are going to be paying even more money than JB.

 

[Imbricus]

sign everybody, but there's going to be a trade at some point

Yeah, I don't see how we avoid this. My money is on Jaylen being traded, which I know you've mentioned as well. He's the kind of alpha-type scorer, entering his prime, that could fetch a handsome return. However, we already know from past experience that he's sensitive about having his name bandied about in trade talks. So I'm not sure how Brad would finesse that, if he tries to shop Jaylen around. If Jaylen hears about it and gets irked, then the Celts might find themselves no longer in control of the situation, but rather in "disgruntled star demands to be traded" territory.

To be clear, I'd love to keep him, but this team will just get too damn expensive with all these all-stars/near all-stars in the starting lineup, and a smart trade could extend the championship window, filling the larder with nice draft picks and solid complementary players. Anyway, my faith is in Brad/Zaren to figure this out.

 

[InstaFace]

This team is in great shape contract-wise, which is a credit to Zarren/Brad.

It had better be. We've blown past the second apron so quickly we can't even see it in the rear view mirror, with JTs supermax coming up and these likely deals. The players we have are about the only ones we're going to get, barring a major reset.

 

[Red Averages]

My guesstimates pretty much align with the crowd, Brad extends:
1. Jrue in April. KP extension money. It was probably outlined with Glushon before the trade. ~$30MM/yr
2. White in July. 3+1 at ~$30MM/yr (does the full 140%)
3. Hauser in July. 2+1 at ~$10MM/yr

Also think he gets 2+1 done with Tillman and/or Kornet at ~5MM/yr

Wyc will pay massive taxes. BUT if he gets queasy ahead of 2025-26 (JTs Super Max kicks in) then he should divest part of his stake to a deep-pocketed Gambling/lodging outfit (Cuban deal) to monetize, reduce exposure, & retain control.
OR If Wyc refuses to divest and doesn't want to pay hugely to the Tax Man, then shop Brown's long-dated contract to teams incapable of attracting All-NBA players.

This team is in great shape contract-wise, which is a credit to Zarren/Brad.

My understanding is they will try to GFIN the next 2, maybe 3 years, then will likely trade JB and build around Tatum and the next core. There hasn’t been a firm commitment from ownership past 2 years, but they’ve been given the soft guidance to expect it’s fine.

Also if Wyc divests, it should be to Pags who earned another $3bn or so after buying the team and is mostly liquid vs Wyc who is not.

Also, goes without saying but winning a championship would bring in a lot of extra revenue (more home games, more sales, higher ticket prices etc)

 

[benhogan]

It had better be. We've blown past the second apron so quickly we can't even see it in the rear view mirror, with JTs supermax coming up and these likely deals. The players we have are about the only ones we're going to get, barring a major reset.

Ha Ha. Yea it all got very expensive quickly as they shrewdly stacked up contracts time & again to add White, KP & Jrue. With both JAYS heading towards Super Maxlandia the tax bills will be steep.

Shipping JB, who is at the cusp of All-NBA for a solid wing would dramatically reduce the Cs chances at winning a championship, and I don't see how that sits well with the person the Cs are going to be paying even more money than JB.

If they had to move Jaylen, you'd be betting that Brad & Co could identify a player(s) that complement JT/KP/DW/Jrue
Basically whatever they lost scoring-wise from Jaylen would have to be made up with shooting efficiency + defense (which costs less). Not an easy task but Brad is very good at this.

If people want to speculate on what that looks like, have at it, we have a week until real NBA hoops

Also if Wyc divests, it should be to Pags who earned another $3bn or so after buying the team and is mostly liquid vs Wyc who is not.

Also, goes without saying but winning a championship would bring in a lot of extra revenue (more home games, more sales, higher ticket prices etc)

Yea the Boston Basketball Partners (I loosely use Wyc, which I probably shouldn't) has made billions on a very small equity investment when they took the Celtics private. They have plenty of levers they could pull to withstand massive CAP taxes, while directly benefiting from the asset value increase with Banners.

I've started worrying a lot less about the LUXURY TAX after seeing how well Lasry and Cuban did before even the new broadcast deals were realized.

 

[Auger34]

My guess is we do 1 more year with the same core, then ship Jaylen for a combo of solid wing on good contract, expiring contract, and draft assets galore. I don’t think Wyc will pay what is required for an extended amount of time if he believes Jaylen can fetch a big return for less cost and potentially start extending the window even longer, which he likely can. It might even happen this offseason.

I, for one, am absolutely shocked that your preference is to trade Jaylen Brown. One would never know reading your posts, you appear to be such a huge fan

 

[Auger34]

To answer this question, I think they resign all 3 and commit to this core for 2 seasons after this one.

After that, a trade would likely need to be made to curb the tax bill. At that point, everyone but Tatum is available

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

If they had to move Jaylen, you'd be betting that Brad & Co could identify a player(s) that complement JT/KP/DW/Jrue
Basically whatever they lost scoring-wise from Jaylen would have to be made up with shooting efficiency + defense (which costs less). Not an easy task but Brad is very good at this.

If people want to speculate on what that looks like, have at it, we have a week until real NBA hoops

Not sure why we'd be trading JB first. I think Brad would probably try to break up Jrue into a two players and then maybe move one of them (along with draft capital) off the roster.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

dp

 

[Ed Hillel]

Shipping JB, who is at the cusp of All-NBA for a solid wing would dramatically reduce the Cs chances at winning a championship, and I don't see how that sits well with the person the Cs are going to be paying even more money than JB.

They’d be getting a ton of draft capital, as well, which could either be used to draft a top-level propsect, or shipped to someone else for more talent. As for Tatum, the issue we are talking about is the crazy Cap tax Wyc is going to be on the hook for. I’m sure Jayson understands business, he seems like a professional, and at this point he should certainly be willing to trust Brad. Getting rid of Jrue is not solving the cap issue.

It really comes down to what Wyc is willing to pay, and whether it’s worth what he thinks Brad can put forth as an alterntive.

 

[benhogan]

Not sure why we'd be trading JB first. I think Brad would probably try to break up Jrue into a two players and then maybe move one of them (along with draft capital) off the roster.

Because he'll make by far the most $$$, and the main reason Brad would be trading any of the TOP5 is because of $$$.
In addition to that the Brown trade return with the length of his contract + All NBA status would be sizeable.

For example, next season Brown will be making $49.3MM which is more than White ($18.8M) + KP ($29.3M) combined.

 

[Jimbodandy]

To answer this question, I think they resign all 3 and commit to this core for 2 seasons after this one.

After that, a trade would likely need to be made to curb the tax bill. At that point, everyone but Tatum is available

This. We're in year 1 of the GFIN window.

 

[the moops]

Not sure why we'd be trading JB first. I think Brad would probably try to break up Jrue into a two players and then maybe move one of them (along with draft capital) off the roster.

Why would they be moving draft capital to offload what we would assume is a decent player?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Because he'll make by far the most $$$, and the main reason Brad would be trading any of the TOP5 is because of $$$.
In addition to that the Brown trade return with the length of his contract + All NBA status would be sizeable.

For example, next season Brown will be making $49.3MM which is more than White ($18.8M) + KP ($29.3M) combined.

Yes JB is making a ton of money but the Cs will still have to take $ back so how much will the Cs really save - and couldn't they savr the same amount by breaking Jrue's salary into pieces?

Obviously there are too many valuables to know what the Cs will do - the most important being whether they have won a championship, and if not, why? - but it seems likely that if the Cs trade JB, they will be downgradong their chances at winning a title.

They’d be getting a ton of draft capital, as well, which could either be used to draft a top-level propsect, or shipped to someone else for more talent. As for Tatum, the issue we are talking about is the crazy Cap tax Wyc is going to be on the hook for. I’m sure Jayson understands business, he seems like a professional, and at this point he should certainly be willing to trust Brad. Getting rid of Jrue is not solving the cap issue.

It really comes down to what Wyc is willing to pay, and whether it’s worth what he thinks Brad can put forth as an alterntive.

Agree with your last sentence. But my point is there are likely ways to reduce tax hit without trading JB.

Don't think it's likely that the Cs will get a draft pick high enough to draft someone who will be able to help a contender right away. And as for the idea of getting a replacement, getting someone cheaper probably means not-as-good, and getting someone as good probably means a salary close to JB so that defeats the purpose of trading JB.

Why would they be moving draft capital to offload what we would assume is a decent player?

Was thinking of worse case scenario where the Cs are trying to get off salaries to save tax $. Obviously, it would better if they didn't have to.

 

[benhogan]

Yes JB is making a ton of money but the Cs will still have to take $ back so how much will the Cs really save - and couldn't they savr the same amount by breaking Jrue's salary into pieces?

Obviously there are too many valuables to know what the Cs will do - the most important being whether they have won a championship, and if not, why? - but it seems likely that if the Cs trade JB, they will be downgradong their chances at winning a title.

Assume they have won 1 Championship & money/tax is an issue in the summer of 2025 with Tatum's Super Max kicking in.

It will be a Sophie's Choice dilemma between JB & Tatum since they will always be appreciably longer & bigger contracts than the other 3 (+ have the largest trade value).

Yes, it will be a downgrade in talent going from Jaylen Brown to Player X + expiring filler + picks. BUT I trust Brad/Zarren will continue to be excellent at exchanging players/contracts.

If we don't want to discuss what Player X would look like because it is too far out & a million things could happen over the next 18 months, that's cool.

The other suggestion I have made numerous times is to add a bigger billionaire to ownership & spend money like we were the 2023-24 Warriors*. 100% of Celtic fans would sign off on this option. BUT just expect the parquet to be replaced with the Draft Kings LED floor

https://hoopshype.com/lists/luxury-tax-2023-24-how-much-is-each-team-projected-to-spend/

 

[lexrageorge]

The Nets are a cautionary tale, as none of their trades of their most recent Big 3 have yielded much of anything. The draft picks they have are all likely to be second half of the first round, none of which teams offering star players will be clamoring for. I get that the hypothetical we're discussing here is different; just pointing out the difficulty of getting even reasonable value back when trading star players. Another example: Philly's initial post-Harden bump has long since faded into oblivion.

Win a title, and the Brown trade talk can be held off for a year.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Assume they have won 1 Championship & money/tax is an issue in the summer of 2025 with Tatum's Super Max kicking in.

It will be a Sophie's Choice dilemma between JB & Tatum since they will always be appreciably longer & bigger contracts than the other 3 (+ have the largest trade value).

Yes, it will be a downgrade in talent going from Jaylen Brown to Player X + expiring filler + picks. BUT I trust Brad/Zarren will continue to be excellent at exchanging players/contracts.

If we don't want to discuss what Player X would look like because it is too far out & a million things could happen over the next 18 months, that's cool.

The other suggestion I have made numerous times is to add a bigger billionaire to ownership & spend money like we were the 2023-24 Warriors*. 100% of Celtic fans would sign off on this option. BUT just expect the parquet to be replaced with the Draft Kings LED floor

https://hoopshype.com/lists/luxury-tax-2023-24-how-much-is-each-team-projected-to-spend/

I understand what you are saying and I personally don't have the brain capacity to th8nk about who BOS might try to bring back in a JB trade 12-24 months from now but by all means discuss.

I just don't understand why y'all are focused on JB for Player X + expiring filler + picks when BOS could probably do Jrue for Player 1 + expiring and save maybe the same amount of money depending who Player 1 is. The picks don't really matter to BOS on its timeline unless they think they can get one that has a shot at the upper lottery and as everyone has noted, having a potential All-NBA player as a team's 5th option is a real luxury, particularly when that player is in his mid-30s.

My personal hope is that BOS keeps winning titles so Wyc can't break up the team!

 

[RorschachsMask]

I can’t even think about this atm. If they don’t win a title, then I can open myself up to the potential moves.

So just win the title.

 

[benhogan]

The picks don't really matter to BOS on its timeline unless they think they can get one that has a shot at the upper lottery and as everyone has noted, having a potential All-NBA player as a team's 5th option is a real luxury, particularly when that player is in his mid-30s.

My personal hope is that BOS keeps winning titles so Wyc can't break up the team!

Please sign me up for Team Titles & Taxes

First & second-round draft picks are just trade currency for Brad, as we just saw in the Marcus Smart trade.
Draft picks have greater value in rebuilders' hands, and Win Now players have greater value in the Celtics' hands.
(with the caveat being that there is little downside by using a 14/15th/2-way spot for a 19-21yr old 2nd rounder)

There could be a fair Jrue vs Jaylen debate on who is better for this team, would return more in a trade & save more tax $$$.
BUT agree that it should be tabled for the summer after we see what kind of extension Jrue gets & the duck boats have been put away.

 

[benhogan]

Howard Beck, at the Ringer, dared to touch the Jaylen Brown 3rd Rail

The Boston Celtics are heavily favored to win the East, with a star-studded lineup and a massive payroll—all of which could spell trouble if they stumble again in the spring. It’s going to be challenging to keep Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White in perpetuity, even if they were to win the title. “Boston has decisions to make,” said another Eastern Conference exec. “They’re gonna have to figure out who’s expendable and who’s not.”

Does that mean shedding a talented role player like Holiday? Or would the Celtics preserve their depth and instead see what they can get for Brown, their no. 2 star? Rivals have been wondering about his fate from the moment he signed a five-year, $304 million extension in July.

“I think that’s realistic,” the first Western Conference exec said of a Brown trade. “Can you get 80 percent of Jaylen by keeping Derrick White and replacing Jaylen with a $20 million player instead of a $40 million player?”

No one is predicting Brown will be moved this summer—particularly with Boston in first place—but the Celtics will eventually have to confront the financial realities of the new CBA. And if they did put Brown on the market? “Jaylen would set the record for the biggest return,” the other Western Conference exec said, adding, “It should be a Durant-type deal”—meaning multiple first-round picks and swaps, plus high-level rotation players; Brown might not have Durant’s résumé, but he’s also eight years younger.

https://www.theringer.com/2024/2/14/24072038/nba-trade-rumors-offseason-lebron-james-trae-young

 

[lovegtm]

....
No one is predicting Brown will be moved this summer—particularly with Boston in first place—but the Celtics will eventually have to confront the financial realities of the new CBA. And if they did put Brown on the market? “Jaylen would set the record for the biggest return,” the other Western Conference exec said, adding, “It should be a Durant-type deal”—meaning multiple first-round picks and swaps, plus high-level rotation players; Brown might not have Durant’s résumé, but he’s also eight years younger.

https://www.theringer.com/2024/2/14/24072038/nba-trade-rumors-offseason-lebron-james-trae-young

At the very least, it's good to see outside confirmation of the massive trade value of Jaylen's age and locked-in years. People really underestimate the value of that to non-destination franchises.

...
I just don't understand why y'all are focused on JB for Player X + expiring filler + picks when BOS could probably do Jrue for Player 1 + expiring and save maybe the same amount of money depending who Player 1 is. The picks don't really matter to BOS on its timeline unless they think they can get one that has a shot at the upper lottery and as everyone has noted, having a potential All-NBA player as a team's 5th option is a real luxury, particularly when that player is in his mid-30s.
...

The reason is simple: because of the supermax, JB makes more than a lot of other good players are even allowed to make. Donovan Mitchell, for example, can't get the supermax, because he was traded to a new team. Many such cases.

So you could, in theory, trade Jaylen to a team with a really good player who wanted to leave. Cs get that player, his lower contract number, and some draft assets. Other team gets 4-5 years of Jaylen.

Then, if Jrue is declining, you attach some of those assets to him for another high-end complementary player. Now you have a lower salary structure, some assets, and still have a really good roster.

The key things that make this type of re-jiggering possible:

• Other really good players can't make as much as Jaylen, due to the supermax rules
• The Celtics are a destination for some players who want to win (e.g. KP), which lets them extend/re-sign guys some worse teams can't
• Jaylen's locked-in years are a big asset for non-destination teams

 

[the moops]

Was thinking of worse case scenario where the Cs are trying to get off salaries to save tax $. Obviously, it would better if they didn't have to.

I imagine that they will game plan out a ton of different scenarios, and one where they need to unload Jaylen and draft capital is way way down the list of acceptable possibilities.

I do think if they don't win the title this year, it makes for an easier decision to trade Jaylen for 2 or 3 players on lesser deals, then move 1 or 2 of those deals into someone's space. As an example (just an example so don't kill me) in the offseason, Jaylen to the Lakers for Reaves, Russell, Rui. Celts move both Russell (expiring, decent deal for what he provides), Rui (signed for a couple more years at fine money). They keep Reaves and save a bunch of tax money by moving 30+ million off their books

 

[benhogan]

At the very least, it's good to see outside confirmation of the massive trade value of Jaylen's age and locked-in years. People really underestimate the value of that to non-destination franchises.

If Jaylen was a 1A, without Tatum, is there a world where he could score ~30ppg?

I imagine that they will game plan out a ton of different scenarios, and one where they need to unload Jaylen and draft capital is way way down the list of acceptable possibilities.

I do think if they don't win the title this year, it makes for an easier decision to trade Jaylen for 2 or 3 players on lesser deals, then move 1 or 2 of those deals into someone's space. As an example (just an example so don't kill me) in the offseason, Jaylen to the Lakers for Reaves, Russell, Rui. Celts move both Russell (expiring, decent deal for what he provides), Rui (signed for a couple more years at fine money). They keep Reaves and save a bunch of tax money by moving 30+ million off their books

Not criticizing your example, because you have the guts to put names down (with the CAP savings)

BUT the Lakers would include 3 Firsts & all their swaps.

Brad would still say no because 5 other NBA teams would probably offer more.

Danny got a pretty good haul for a 30yr old All-NBA Rudy Gobert

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

At the very least, it's good to see outside confirmation of the massive trade value of Jaylen's age and locked-in years. People really underestimate the value of that to non-destination franchises.


The reason is simple: because of the supermax, JB makes more than a lot of other good players are even allowed to make. Donovan Mitchell, for example, can't get the supermax, because he was traded to a new team. Many such cases.

So you could, in theory, trade Jaylen to a team with a really good player who wanted to leave. Cs get that player, his lower contract number, and some draft assets. Other team gets 4-5 years of Jaylen.

Then, if Jrue is declining, you attach some of those assets to him for another high-end complementary player. Now you have a lower salary structure, some assets, and still have a really good roster.

The key things that make this type of re-jiggering possible:

• Other really good players can't make as much as Jaylen, due to the supermax rules
• The Celtics are a destination for some players who want to win (e.g. KP), which lets them extend/re-sign guys some worse teams can't
• Jaylen's locked-in years are a big asset for non-destination teams

I understand your reasoning but a team that is trading for JB will likely want its best players to stay to compete. Sure, if BOS can get a Donovan Mitchell-type + for JB (just as an example), then I don't think anyone is complaining about the trade. Or something like what PDX did and get someone like Jrue would be great.

I think it's more realistic, however, that the Cs would get a Mikail Bridges-type of player - good but not an All-Star. Maybe this guy would be sufficient given what's already in BOS but it could be a steep drop-off, particularly when JT goes to the bench. I would think that switching out JB or Bridges would pretty substantially impact BOS's title chances. Someone like Reaves would be even more.

But what do I know?

Danny got a pretty good haul for a 30yr old All-NBA Rudy Gobert

In terms of picks, great haul. In terms of players, mostly filler (I think of Kessler more as a draft pick).

 

[mcpickl]

The Nets are a cautionary tale, as none of their trades of their most recent Big 3 have yielded much of anything. The draft picks they have are all likely to be second half of the first round, none of which teams offering star players will be clamoring for. I get that the hypothetical we're discussing here is different; just pointing out the difficulty of getting even reasonable value back when trading star players. Another example: Philly's initial post-Harden bump has long since faded into oblivion.

Win a title, and the Brown trade talk can be held off for a year.

This is interesting because I think one of those Brooklyn trades would be the exact deal the Celtics would be looking for in a theoretical Jaylen Brown trade.

If they could flip Jaylen into Mikal Bridges/Cam Johnson that would be as good a deal as they could find in my opinion. (I don't think they'd also be getting the huge parcel of picks/swap as well as Brooklyn did for KD)

That kind of deal would probably need the Nets to decide to blow it up since they don't have a #1, and don't seem to have a clear avenue to get one. The scenario I'd see is Bridges/Johnson(or DFS) here, Jaylen to old friend Ime in Houston, and Brooklyn Sonny Weavering all their picks back from Houston(no David Putney though)

 

[lexrageorge]

This is interesting because I think one of those Brooklyn trades would be the exact deal the Celtics would be looking for in a theoretical Jaylen Brown trade.

If they could flip Jaylen into Mikal Bridges/Cam Johnson that would be as good a deal as they could find in my opinion. (I don't think they'd also be getting the huge parcel of picks/swap as well as Brooklyn did for KD)

That kind of deal would probably need the Nets to decide to blow it up since they don't have a #1, and don't seem to have a clear avenue to get one. The scenario I'd see is Bridges/Johnson(or DFS) here, Jaylen to old friend Ime in Houston, and Brooklyn Sonny Weavering all their picks back from Houston(no David Putney though)

The problem is that is a deal that would significantly worsen the team and has zero future upside. Hard pass for sure.

 

[Devizier]

People are still high on Bridges? I think he’s a good cautionary tale for too much projection.

 

[the moops]

The problem is that is a deal that would significantly worsen the team and has zero future upside. Hard pass for sure.

A team that replaces Jaylen with Mikal Bridges + something else is not significantly worse

 

[Euclis20]

A team that replaces Jaylen with Mikal Bridges + something else is not significantly worse

Kind of depends what that team needs. If it's Boston already with 3 other guys (plus Tatum) that can score 15+ ppg consistently, I think it'd more than fine. If the roster looks more like the Celtics from 2 years ago (when after Tatum/Brown, the next high scorer was Smart at just 12.1 ppg), it's more of an issue.

 

[pjheff]

Then, if Jrue is declining, you attach some of those assets to him for another high-end complementary player. Now you have a lower salary structure, some assets, and still have a really good roster.

I would expect that any effort to manage the payroll would come from the aging end of the roster (Horford/Holiday) before the core in its prime (Brown/White).

 

[mcpickl]

The problem is that is a deal that would significantly worsen the team and has zero future upside. Hard pass for sure.

100% disagree

Bridges is miscast as a #1 option on Brooklyn. He'd be amazing as a fit in Boston lower in the offensive pecking order while being a defensive terror. Getting a second rotation player with him, with them making the same/less combined than Jaylen does himself, is an easy win.

I think in that theoretical deal, Houston actually passes and says nah we'd rather have Bridges and Johnson/or/DFS than Jaylen.

 

[bosockboy]

Jaylen would be a great partner for Wemby.

 

[TripleOT]

If Jaylen Brown was 1A on a lesser team, he could lead the league in scoring.

I would rather keep Brown instead of trying to chop $10 million off the books in a trade, and save the $10 million by signing a minvet who can hit threes (or another development project on a minimum salary) instead of an extended Hauser..

 

[slamminsammya]

Jaylen would be a great partner for Wemby.

why's that?

 

[RorschachsMask]

If Jaylen Brown was 1A on a lesser team, he could lead the league in scoring

I don’t get this. The previous two years, his usage was 12th and 15th in the league, and he averaged 25 a game on a 57.8% TS. This year his TS is 57.4%.

He’s absolutely capable of going off when he’s hot, but leading the league in scoring, which is like 33+ a game? His game isn’t really equipped to deal with consistently being the focal point of defenses. He’s league average with efficiency while being in the perfect situation.

 

[tbrown_01923]

Would be fun to see him (JB) on a running team like Indy or Sac.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Would be fun to see him (JB) on a running team like Indy or Sac.

He already is like 3rd in the league in transition volume, of the higher volume players. He’s 57th percentile in transition scoring overall. Here’s the ISO PPP for the main rotation players, and what percentage of their shots come in transition.

Horford: 1.35 PPP, 16.6% of his shots, which surprised me tbh lol.
Tatum: 1.33 PPP, 14.8% of his shots.
Jaylen: 1.15 PPP, 28% of his shots.
Holiday: 1.15 PPP, 18.8% of his shots.
Pritchard: 1.06 PPP, 17% of his shots.
Hauser: 1.03 PPP, 19% of his shots.

White doesn’t do it enough to qualify, which is odd.

I know some people say Jaylen suffers because other people don’t run with him, and maybe that’s true, but if he just pulled the ball out or moved it a bit more, he’d be even more dangerous on the break. His aggression in transition is awesome, but it also hurts him at times.

 

[InstaFace]

why's that?

Because anything would be a major upgrade on the wings he's playing with right now, who are only NBA players in the definitional sense.

 

[Euclis20]

More thoughts on Jaylen for Bridges+: One of the really enjoyable things about the current offense is that aside from being excellent, the roles seem VERY clearly defined:

-Tatum is the clear #1, and everyone defers to him in most situations.
-Brown is the clear #2, and he knows when to get aggressive and hunt his own offense (in transition)
-Porzingis is the clear #3, and he knows when to get aggressive and hunt his own offense (whenever he has a mismatch in half court)
-White/Holiday are distant 4th and 5th options, but they are both solid pick and roll partners for the top 3, know where to go and what to do with the ball. I don't know who has been more impressive, White (having by far the best offensive season of his career) or Holiday (he was the #2 option for the best team in the conference, and he's happily converted to a sharpshooting 5th option that really picks his moments to get aggressive).
-Horford is the clear 6th man, capable of stepping in when any of the top 5 is out without missing a beat.
-Hauser/Pritchard are clearly the 2nd and 3rd guys off the bench, and know to be aggressive with their shots when they have them.

I think the decision is forced by Summer 2025 if they don't win a title, but the fact that everyone in the rotation seems to know where they stand is under appreciated, I think.

 

[DavidTai]

If Jaylen Brown was 1A on a lesser team, he could lead the league in scoring.

I would rather keep Brown instead of trying to chop $10 million off the books in a trade, and save the $10 million by signing a minvet who can hit threes (or another development project on a minimum salary) instead of an extended Hauser..

This feels like exactly why Boston signed Drew Peterson this year - by the time, hopefully, when he develops, he'd be taking the place of Hauser. Or Pritchard, depending on how his playmaking breaks out.

 

[ALiveH]

It's gotta be Holiday that goes - send him with draft capital to a team that can absorb his contract and can send back a decent cost-controlled guard. Jrue is great, but he's 4 year older than White, they're largely interchangeable and White is simply better. The other four - JT, JB, KP and White are all better and bring unique non-overlapping skills. Don't know who replaces Jrue - some combo of Prichard / Springer and whoever they get back.

Depending on how things shake out, the Pistons, Pacers, and Spurs could be trade partners.

 

[lexrageorge]

It's gotta be Holiday that goes - send him with draft capital to a team that can absorb his contract and can send back a decent cost-controlled guard. Jrue is great, but he's 4 year older than White, they're largely interchangeable and White is simply better. The other four - JT, JB, KP and White are all better and bring unique non-overlapping skills. Don't know who replaces Jrue - some combo of Prichard / Springer and whoever they get back.

Depending on how things shake out, the Pistons, Pacers, and Spurs could be trade partners.

There are so many restrictions on sign-and-trades that it's unlikely the Celtics could get a decent return. In terms of asset management, the Celtics would likely be better off retaining Jrue for at least another season and then use him as a trade piece later.

 

[pjheff]

There are so many restrictions on sign-and-trades that it's unlikely the Celtics could get a decent return. In terms of asset management, the Celtics would likely be better off retaining Jrue for at least another season and then use him as a trade piece later.

I think that would be the plan. There is some belief that the groundwork of an extension was laid at the time of the trade. Barring catastrophe, my expectation would be that they keep this core together through the Porzingis extension and then reassess.