Buchholz is the best play to quality. Buchholz is reliably better than two of the three guys you reference in the second paragraph as an argument against keeping him as well. So that's reliability and quality in addition to value.HangingW/ScottCooper said:Buchholz is a good contract, but that doesn't mean he's a good fit on this team. The team has a bunch of question marks on the pitching staff under decent contracts, and Porcello. At some point you need to stop going for value and start going for reliability and quality. Buchholz could be the latter, but he's certainly not the former. Yes, all pitchers are volatile, but he is especially so. Trade him to a team for a prospect. He has value as a #3 and #4 starter that could emerge as something better. He'd be a really good fit for KC.
We know E.Rod, Porcello, and likely Miley (unless he's traded) will be in the rotation in 2016. My perspective going in February 2015 was I like the pitching moves provided that they haven't yet acquired their ace. If they go into 2016 without a pitcher better than that trio, they're screwed. Ideally they'd wind up with a #1 and #2 with the back three being E.Rod, Porcello, and Miley, but if they go into the season with Buchholz on their roster as well as the other 3, they will fail.
We know the names that keep getting thrown around, and they're going to cost money or prospects. They need an ace or two, and they need to improve the bullpen. All assets, cash and tradable prospects should be devoted to those two things.
Whether he's kept or not will depend on what the market offers for him. The likely facts as it stands now:
Porcello isn't going anywhere.
Rodriguez is exactly the kind of guy Dombrowski likes, he's probably not going anywhere.
Buchholz, Miley, Kelly, Owens, and Johnson all probably have some real market value.
The last three still have options.
There isn't a logjam of quality prospects at AA needing rotation spots in AAA.
I'd imagine Dombrowski is going to shop all five and see which one or two best help to fill a need. He's also probably going to go SP shopping this winter in a deep market with lots of aces and #2s who might out-pitch the "aces" over the next 5 years. What the market offers up will dictate how he solves those questions. Miley might get better offers than Clay with his reasonable multi-year deal and high IP counts track record. One or both of Owens and Johnson might both be moved to go after a high end starter on a different team. I doubt there is any solid plans in place as to who is going and who is staying.
Dombrowski is a noted trade maker and trade winner. He's going to have a nice stable of assets to play with this winter despite the Ramirez, Sandoval, and Porcello contracts. Not an embarrassment of riches but some nice chips, in addition to a meaningful chunk of John Henry's money and likely the ability to easily ask for more at least the first time. His track record suggests that he'll find a worthwhile starting rotation solution, we just might not see it coming.