Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

[PedroKsBambino]

Alternatively there's the keep your foot on the gas and don't let them get any momentum approach.

I think there's a good argument to going back to DW in the starting lineup because then Love has to guard Tatum. With one big there's no where to hide him. I'm not sure there's a great matchup for Grant in this series.

Yes, though Miami won't stay with Love long in that scenario.

The biggest question for me is whether, defensively, the Celtics believe their best setup vs Miami is two big (which has the benefit of someone being able to provide help/rim protection/d rebounding even when Bam is floating around mid-post or outside) or not. The answer to that should drive the lineup, because the D is what will really get this team where it needs to go. Also, Miami just doesn't have that much in the way of bigs. Bam will play a lot (35 min a game in post-season) but behind him you have Love (20 min a game in post-season) and Zeller (9 min). So they are going small a lot already, with Butler at the 4.

My guess? Celtics are really versatile and this lets them try both ways. I suspect Celtics will want a lot of two big when Miami has two out there and sometimes even when it's just Bam. They'll use Grant more this series to help get there, perhaps trying to focus TL minutes when Bam is off the court (using Grant a lot when Bam is out there). They'll go smaller with one big as a change-up and if that really works they may stick with it, but my guess is they prefer size here as a default, and if that doesn't work vs Miami's small lineups Celts are very well situated to switch to one big.

The other thing I'll watch is how effectively Celts hunt the Strus/Robinson slot (one of them usually on court for Miami with Herro out). I am guessing Miami will try to mix up defenses so neither is a primary defender of JB, and perhaps they'll try to put one on Smart or White when possible. Celts should hunt that in PnR and be winning to post up Robinson even wtih Smart. Strus is sturdier, but it's still a weak defender given Celtics offensive talent.

 

[Auger34]

Just read Jared Weiss's preview and he makes your point as well:

If Boston starts double big, Horford should be on Adebayo with Robert Williams helping off Love. Then the question is whether Boston will keep going to small lineups for the second unit as it has done all year, or bring in Grant Williams to stay big.
Williams also has played a big role against Adebayo in the past, who he has been battling since they were in high school back in Charlotte. It’s a different matchup than with Embiid, as Adebayo is more on the move and using his athleticism and speed than his sheer power and height. Mazzulla benched Williams in large part due to his fouling on Embiid and turnovers attacking closeouts too deep into the paint, but his intimate knowledge of Adebayo’s game could bring him back into the action.

He also thinks Grant was pretty good against Butler last year:

Butler is patient, powerful and laser-focused. So does Mazzulla put Smart on him, his equal on the defensive end? Is White back in the starting lineup to take on Butler while Smart roams the weak side? Will Brown get the star assignment again after taking on Harden last series?
Then what about Grant Williams? One of the biggest adjustments Udoka and Mazzulla made last year was to have Williams bang with Butler and keep him from getting to his spots in the midrange. It worked well for some games before Smart eventually took over the assignment in Game 7.

An interesting take on RW:

It’s all designed to get movement behind Williams, who is going to be a target for Miami because he has been super jumpy all postseason. He has been eager to leave his feet on both ends of the court, biting hard on pump fakes and even jumping just to make rotations across the floor when it’s unnecessary. It was a big part of why Mazzulla went away from him in the fourth quarter of Game 6 after he had such a great start to the game returning to the lineup.

https://theathletic.com/4522604/2023/05/16/celtics-heat-preview-jimmy-butler/

Very interesting. I have to apologize to @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat who brought up GW as someone that will see Butler a lot and I poo poo’ed it

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'd like to see the rotation expanded to 8 or 9 at least in the early part of this series.

Miami isn't Philly, so what ultimately worked against Philly shouldn't be the norm for any team.

Hauser and Grant are worth at least a look.

I expect Grant to play a fairly large role between matching up with Bam and Butler. I don't really see much need for going deeper to Hauser in a playoff series with no B2B when we are fully healthy.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Very interesting. I have to apologize to @Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat who brought up GW as someone that will see Butler a lot and I poo poo’ed it

No worries. I'm comfortable with getting poo poo

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/SynergySST/status/1658468589526040576?s=20

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/RealBobManning/status/1658506994876022786?s=20

 

[staz]

Looks like we got all games on TNT. So no Doris and Sweet Sassy Mollassy.

And no coverage for we Fubo-ers.

 

[Curt S Loew]

And no coverage for we Fubo-ers.

The main reason I did not go Fubo. I went Sling for introductory 20 bucks a month when NHL and NBA playoffs started. That may be worth it for you for just the playoffs.

NESN isn't worth the 80 bucks a month or so FUBO charges without TBS and TNT anyway for me.

 

[staz]

The main reason I did not go Fubo. I went Sling for introductory 20 bucks a month when NHL and NBA playoffs started. That may be worth it for you for just the playoffs.

NESN isn't worth the 80 bucks a month or so FUBO charges without TBS and TNT anyway for me.

Oh, I forgot about Sling - $20 works, thanks!

 

[DJnVa]

Lol....and they won by double digits. Ok I'm done with this topic

I mean, you can be gassed and it affect you later in the series. Just because they won 2 of first 3 doesn't mean they weren't exhausted from previous series. That's when it all caught up to them.

 

[Ed Hillel]

View: https://twitter.com/RealBobManning/status/1658506994876022786?s=20

This is the right call. Make it as difficult as possible for their two best players to score and force their undrafted core to beat you.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

This is the right call. Make it as difficult as possible for their two best players to score and force their undrafted core to beat you.

It surely makes Butler think twice when he's probing in the paint looking for his release point.

 

[djbayko]

The main reason I did not go Fubo. I went Sling for introductory 20 bucks a month when NHL and NBA playoffs started. That may be worth it for you for just the playoffs.

NESN isn't worth the 80 bucks a month or so FUBO charges without TBS and TNT anyway for me.

So what did you do last week when Sling had outages during the NBA playoffs on two consecutive nights?

I’m also on the $20 intro offer. They gave me a $10 credit. I read online that Sling has service outages often so we’ll see how this trial goes.

 

[Curt S Loew]

So what did you do last week when Sling had outages during the NBA playoffs on two consecutive nights?

I’m also on the $20 intro offer. They gave me a $10 credit. I read online that Sling has service outages often so we’ll see how this trial goes.

I have had ZERO issues. Thanks for the jinx!

-Edit - I also tried the DirecTV free trial. It was the worst streaming service ever. Constant buffering and outages.

 

[djbayko]

I have had ZERO issues. Thanks for the jinx!

-Edit - I also tried the DirecTV free trial. It was the worst streaming service ever. Constant buffering and outages.

Interesting. It must have been a regional server thing or something then because it was pretty widespread based on online complainants I was seeing, and nothing I did was able to make the problem for away.

 

[Curt S Loew]

Interesting. It must have been a regional server thing or something then because it was pretty widespread based on online complainants I was seeing, and nothing I did was able to make the problem for away.

I'm loving it so far. Watching "Above The Rim" replay of Game 7 right now. And the price is definitely right.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So what did you do last week when Sling had outages during the NBA playoffs on two consecutive nights?

I’m also on the $20 intro offer. They gave me a $10 credit. I read online that Sling has service outages often so we’ll see how this trial goes.

I was with Sling for about a year when "cutting the cord" was the rage. In return, I received awful reception and longer than normal delays. Terrible product from my experience.

 

[benhogan]

Not sure why CJM announced ahead of time that Rob is starting. Just made the Heats pre-game a hair easier.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficFEuVDENg

 

[Imbricus]

Coming into the playoffs, I think the Heat were underestimated. Now I think they're being somewhat overestimated.

I would never take them lightly but the Celts are in much better shape for a matchup this year. The Heat don't have Herro, Oladipo, and P.J. Tucker for defense. The two key players for the Celtics, Brown and Tatum, are a year older, coming into their primes, and have really improved on their ability to drive, exploit gaps and create offense near the basket. The Celts have Brogdon this year and Hauser, two useful weapons. Derrick White was kind of invisible during the 76ers series, but I think he'll be a big factor for this one. Jimmy Butler is one tweaked ankle away from killing Miami's season.

I really like the Celtics chances if they match the Heat's energy, and don't see this series going seven unless they play flat and sloppy for long stretches, and at this point, I don't think they will.

 

[benhogan]

Boston in 5. Tatum looked into the abyss in Philly (G6) and got scared straight.

Benching a 2nd team All-Defense player in Derrick White and Boston holds the 4th rated offense to 86 & 88pts. That's how impactful an active Rob Williams is on the defensive side of the ball.

 

[Euclis20]

I'm beyond sick of the media acting like Butler (26/7/3 with a TS% of .582) was somehow better than Tatum (25/8/6 with a TS% of .616) in last year's playoff series, including as evidence a wide open 3 that he MISSED while ignoring the fact that Tatum went into Butler's house and won game 7. I suppose these are the things we have to talk about when the odds say this series is a huge mismatch but damn, I'm ready to get going already.

 

[Euclis20]

Boston in 5. Tatum looked into the abyss in Philly (G6) and got scared straight.

Benching a 2nd team All-Defense player in Derrick White and Boston holds the 4th rated offense to 86 & 88pts. That's how impactful an active Rob Williams is on the defensive side of the ball.

To be fair, White was replaced by another 2nd team all-defense player, albeit a year removed.

 

[benhogan]

To be fair, White was replaced by another 2nd team all-defense player, albeit a year removed.

White completely deserved 2nd team All-Defense and had an excellent season. BUT the team's defensive uptick from DW to an active, healthy TL is noticeable. I also thought TL was a better and more impactful defender than Smart last season.

 

[lars10]

Not sure why CJM announced ahead of time that Rob is starting. Just made the Heats pre-game a hair easier.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ficFEuVDENg

You think they hadn't planned on him starting?

 

[benhogan]

You think they hadn't planned on him starting?

Not sure why the team would confirm it early. I'd be inclined to give as little intel as possible to Spo/Heat

Media: Is Rob starting Game 1?

Joe: Going forward we'll announce starting lineups just before the tip. But you can expect Derrick and Rob to play key roles throughout. WWBBD?

 

[m0ckduck]

I'm beyond sick of the media acting like Butler (26/7/3 with a TS% of .582) was somehow better than Tatum (25/8/6 with a TS% of .616) in last year's playoff series, including as evidence a wide open 3 that he MISSED while ignoring the fact that Tatum went into Butler's house and won game 7. I suppose these are the things we have to talk about when the odds say this series is a huge mismatch but damn, I'm ready to get going already.

Also overstated is the "MIA was one uncontested Butler 3PA from going to the Finals" narrative. He front-rimmed that shot with 15 seconds left. Even if he hits it, Boston's odds of winning the game in that situation (down by 1, 15 seconds, a timeout on hand) have to be about one in three.

 

[SteveF]

I'm beyond sick of the media acting like Butler (26/7/3 with a TS% of .582) was somehow better than Tatum (25/8/6 with a TS% of .616) in last year's playoff series, including as evidence a wide open 3 that he MISSED while ignoring the fact that Tatum went into Butler's house and won game 7. I suppose these are the things we have to talk about when the odds say this series is a huge mismatch but damn, I'm ready to get going already.

Tatum had 33 turnovers. Butler had 8. That's primarily why Butler was (arguably) better.

Miami averaged almost 10 (edit: well, more like 7) more true shot attempts per game that series. (Granted, Miami still managed to have a -5 net rating.)

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Even if he hits it, Boston's odds of winning the game in that situation (down by 1, 15 seconds, a timeout on hand) have to be about one in three.

Are you sure you're talking about the Celtics when you describe those odds?

 

[benhogan]

Tatum had 33 turnovers. Butler had 8. That's primarily why Butler was (arguably) better.

Miami averaged almost 10 more true shot attempts per game that series. (Granted, Miami still managed to have a -5 net rating.)

Yikes. I wonder what Miami's points off of turnovers were compared to Boston in that series?

Boston turned the ball over (19, 17, 20, 17) a lot in their 4 games against Miami this year.

 

[slamminsammya]

Yikes. I wonder what Miami's points off of turnovers were compared to Boston in that series?

Boston turned the ball over (19, 17, 20, 17) a lot in their 4 games against Miami this year.

I think Miami's d this year was near bottom in 3p% and 3pa and make up for it with a shitload of turnovers.

 

[Euclis20]

Tatum had 33 turnovers. Butler had 8. That's primarily why Butler was (arguably) better.

Miami averaged almost 10 (edit: well, more like 7) more true shot attempts per game that series. (Granted, Miami still managed to have a -5 net rating.)

That's fair, and there's certainly an argument that Butler was better. I just hate the narrative that Jimmy dragged this plucky underdog that came this close to upsetting the big bad Celtics, when Miami had home court, they were the 1 seed, and they had the experience. Lots of people question the mettle of this Celtics team as if they didn't win multiple elimination games against the defending champs and best player in the league, followed by winning a road game 7 to advance to the finals. I wonder how the narrative changes if Boston had put them away when they pushed the lead to double digits in the 4th quarter, or if the game had been 1-2 possessions away the entire 4th quarter (i.e. no big comeback at the end, just a close game down the stretch that Boston finally won). File that under things we'll never know, I guess.

 

[Auger34]

Are you sure you're talking about the Celtics when you describe those odds?

I had this exact same reaction

 

[Cellar-Door]

I find all the "one shot away last year" stuff kind of silly. The Celtics' roster is better than last year, it's also healthier. Conversely, the Heat roster is worse, and Herro may well miss the whole series.

 

[Euclis20]

I find all the "one shot away last year" stuff kind of silly. The Celtics' roster is better than last year, it's also healthier. Conversely, the Heat roster is worse, and Herro may well miss the whole series.

Herro missing the series is less of a big deal in comparison to last year, he missed half the series and was terrible when he did play. Losing Tucker and Oladipo is much more important (and they were 4th and 5th in minutes played in that series), they were 2/3 of the Heat's best wing defenders against a team in Boston that specializes in wing scoring.

 

[ragnarok725]

It's wild to me to see people continue to underestimate the Heat. This game wasn't really about the Cs playing below their potential. The Heat are just really good. This is anyone's series.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Apparently the game plan for tonight was to repeat the game 1 loss to Philly, only add in a few tiwsts that make it worse.

They had a lead at the half despite a poor defensive showing, so they came out for the third and played their absolute worst quarter of the seres, getting run off the court, 46-25.

They had a nice 7-0 run to start the 4th quarter, but never really got closer than 5.

And Jayson Tatum, for all of his excellence in the last 5 quarters of the Philly series, was an absolute disater in the 4th quarter of this game. Maybe the best way to sum up how terrible he was is this: he did not get a shot from the field in the entire quarter. Not a single shot. He did score 6 points, but all from the line. Almost worst than that, he did not seem to even want the ball. There were a stretch afterthe halfway mark of the 4th where the Celticswere down by 5, their D was getting stops, and the Celtics were having failed possession after failed possession where Taum did not even touch the ball. After that, the Celtics did start getting Tatum the ball later in the 4th - when there was still plenty opportunity to win, and Tatum turned the ball over on 3 stragiht possessions. Probably his worst quarter in all of these playoffs and he's had some bad ones.

Jaylen Brown, right hand bleeding again, added 6 turnovers of his own.

Mazzulla back to his ways of watching the team give up 46 points in a quarter without calling time out.

The Celtics aren't winning this in under 7, but Miami might.

 

[slamminsammya]

Ill be the guy - game 1 was some absurd shooting luck for Miami. People will talk about 54% from 3 but the midrange percentage was like peak KD level, and a lot of those were with good contests.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So...
Positives: Heat probably can't shoot like that 3 more times, we won 3 of 4 quarters
Negatives: as always this team fucked around for a quarter, lost game 1 at home... not good, Way too many turnovers.

Being the more talented team doesn;t mean much when you lose focus constantly.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Being the more talented team doesn;t mean much when you lose focus constantly.

It also must be exhausting physically and mentally to have to keep playing from behind in these series. They're going to run out of gas again if they make the finals just like last year.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

As I feared, its not a mismatch player-wise. Huge mismatch in the coaching category.

 

[Cellar-Door]

As I feared, its not a mismatch player-wise. Huge mismatch in the coaching category.

I say this in all seriousness... if you think they lost this game even 5% because of coaching you're insane. That's the laziest WEEI caller response to every loss. They lost because the players played like garbage. Spo didn't do anything special, Joe didn't do anything particularly bad. They lost because Jaylen can't dribble, Tatum played poorly in the 2nd half, and the entire team played terrible D in the 3rd, highlighted by guys leaving shooters and TL jumping at everything

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ill be the guy - game 1 was some absurd shooting luck for Miami. People will talk about 54% from 3 but the midrange percentage was like peak KD level, and a lot of those were with good contests.

Not picking on you since it’s common vernacular in the sport but am I the only one who hates the term “luck” when associated with shooting?

There was nothing lucky about what the Heat did tonight. They drained a bunch of shots and are unlikely to do so at the same rate going forward. But that, to me, is just variance.

“Luck” to me is hitting a bunch of ground balls through the infield, it’s not draining a bunch of open and contested looks. That’s just performance to me and I think using the term “luck” just minimizes what they accomplished tonight. They were outstanding.

 

[DGreenwood]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YeOWpwNp4P0&ab_channel=NBA

 

[Cellar-Door]

View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1659038733268660224


It really is Redux... slightly closer but same shit as last year.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Yes, from Jaylen and Tatum turnover meltdowns, too. People expecting to see Celtics in 5…I mean at some point we reach the definition of insanity here, right? How many times do we have to see it with this team to not expect it?

Also, the Heat are pretty good.

 

[teddykgb]

I say this in all seriousness... if you think they lost this game even 5% because of coaching you're insane. That's the laziest WEEI caller response to every loss. They lost because the players played like garbage. Spo didn't do anything special, Joe didn't do anything particularly bad. They lost because Jaylen can't dribble, Tatum played poorly in the 2nd half, and the entire team played terrible D in the 3rd, highlighted by guys leaving shooters and TL jumping at everything

I really disagree with this strongly. Spolestra sets his team up really well to make life miserable for Tatum and Brown. They understand our offense and setup in almost a 1-2-2 zone and build a wall for the ball screen/double ball screen and force our stars, neither of which are good dribblers, to have to dribble sideways in traffic and they get Butler opportunities to jump passing lanes and trap and make plays. The players execute but it’s a really smart setup by the coach putting them in a position to succeed.

Contrast that down the other end where Buletr seems to eternally be isolated 1 v 1 in a lot of space in a matchup of his choosing where he dribbles into the paint with much less resistance than our guys ever see. And they execute that time after time down the floor getting their best player into good spaces so he can do what he does.

Timeouts don’t guarantee a change of outcome but he called timeout at the first hint of our 4th quarter run and has coached his team well enough over multiple years that he was able to calm them down enough to get better execution and blunt the momentum. It’s entirely possible the Celtics could have made more shots and won but their coach has a really good feel for his team and a really good way of getting his best player consistently involved and effective

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Yes, from Jaylen and Tatum turnover meltdowns, too. People expecting to see Celtics in 5…I mean at some point we reach the definition of insanity here, right? How many times do we have to see it with this team to not expect it?

Also, the Heat are pretty good.

I said Celtics in 5, maybe 6 and I stand by that. Maybe 6 is more likely but I don’t think we should overreact to Miami stealing this game. They played and shot about as well as realistically possible and the Celtics, well, didn’t. Tip your cap if they do that three more times but I don’t see it. Especially without their 4 days of rest. Talent gap is going to be too much to overcome.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I really disagree with this strongly. Spolestra sets his team up really well to make life miserable for Tatum and Brown. They understand our offense and setup in almost a 1-2-2 zone and build a wall for the ball screen/double ball screen and force our stars, neither of which are good dribblers, to have to dribble sideways in traffic and they get Butler opportunities to jump passing lanes and trap and make plays. The players execute but it’s a really smart setup by the coach putting them in a position to succeed.

Contrast that down the other end where Buletr seems to eternally be isolated 1 v 1 in a lot of space in a matchup of his choosing where he dribbles into the paint with much less resistance than our guys ever see. And they execute that time after time down the floor getting their best player into good spaces so he can do what he does.

Timeouts don’t guarantee a change of outcome but he called timeout at the first hint of our 4th quarter run and has coached his team well enough over multiple years that he was able to calm them down enough to get better execution and blunt the momentum. It’s entirely possible the Celtics could have made more shots and won but their coach has a really good feel for his team and a really good way of getting his best player consistently involved and effective

I think Spoelstra is great, he coaches well... but a lot of our struggles on D had very little to do with strategy and a lot to do with execution, we were switching on the ball and sending an extra guy at Jimmy a lot, the problem was mostly execution, we far too often made the help late, or let him go baseline instead of herding him inside. Rob in particular made a number of mistakes where he dropped too deep. even then our halfcourt D wasn't that bad, they did a lot of damage in transition and semi-transition when guys were slow getting back or didn't find the shooters, and off poor box-out offensive boards. On offense we were getting what we wanted frequently, we just committed a ton of bad turnovers.

Spo is a better coach than Joe, but this game was lost in execution not gameplanning. We turn it over less, we make our FTs, we box out, guys run to the shooters instead of jogging.. we win this game pretty easily.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I said Celtics in 5, maybe 6 and I stand by that. Maybe 6 is more likely but I don’t think we should overreact to Miami stealing this game. They played and shot about as well as realistically possible and the Celtics, well, didn’t. Tip your cap if they do that three more times but I don’t see it. Especially without their 4 days of rest. Talent gap is going to be too much to overcome.

The Heat were 2-2 against the Celtics this year and Butler missed 2 of those games. They match up tremendously well and the talent gap, while real, is overstated. Plus the Celtics are almost always good to cough up 1-2 games per series. Nothing easy with them. NOTHING EASSSYYYYY.

 

[timelysarcasm]

I said Celtics in 5, maybe 6 and I stand by that. Maybe 6 is more likely but I don’t think we should overreact to Miami stealing this game. They played and shot about as well as realistically possible and the Celtics, well, didn’t. Tip your cap if they do that three more times but I don’t see it. Especially without their 4 days of rest. Talent gap is going to be too much to overcome.

This is where I'm at. But DAMMIT they are so frustrating. If this Celtics team could ever lock in completely for an entire game, and entire series....I can't even imagine.

I am really curious about Grant Williams. Payton Pritchard really shouldn't be playing for this team in the playoffs, yet here we are.