Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

[Nator]

I can't get to the spot that says this series goes 7. I think the Celtics take this in 5. Miami already has a thin roster with a bunch of 10 day contract guys. I know Spoelstra uses some form of witchcraft to get the maximum output out of them, but here's the problem. Robinson and Love will need to log many minutes, and the Celtics will hunt them into extinction. They can't guard anybody.

Also, they needed a guy like Malcom Brogdon last year. Now they have him, and I feel like that will shave at least 2 games off of this series.

 

[Strike4]

I can see Miami running out of magic and being pretty stinky and this going 5 games for the Celtics OR I can see Miami sustaining the run and this going to 7 games. Not saying Miami is lucky, but that their style of play is really hard and it depends on players doing what they need to do and not checking out for a quarter. (In contrast to the Celtics, where we bank on guys checking out but they still win.)

 

[Curt S Loew]

I can't get to the spot that says this series goes 7. I think the Celtics take this in 5. Miami already has a thin roster with a bunch of 10 day contract guys. I know Spoelstra uses some form of witchcraft to get the maximum output out of them, but here's the problem. Robinson and Love will need to log many minutes, and the Celtics will hunt them into submission. They can't guard anybody.

Also, they needed a guy like Malcom Brogdon last year. Now they have him, and I feel like that will shave at least 2 games off of this series.

I am of the same mindset, but this also depends on The Celtics AND Brogdon. If they play the way they are capable of, I see 5 games max. But if they even have ONE stinker it changes the series and momentum. We've certainly seen that.

It would be really nice to see consistent play out of them for a series. But no way am I shocked if this thing goes 7.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

My take: Butler is going to have 1-2 games where he just takes over and scores at will - the Cs have run into this problem in the last two series with Trae and Harden, and they didn't seem to be able to scheme very well to stop that. And then there is almost without question going to be one game where the Heat are flopping all over the place, get every call, and the game thread is fuming. So I see this going 6-7 and I'll go so far as to say I'd be borderline shocked if the Celtics (or the Heat) won in 5 (or 4).

 

[KingChre]

No man or woman or beast is worth giving up your team allegiances for.

Unless they actually play for the other team.

Not quite sure how that applies to me getting free tickets to watch the Celtics play in Miami, but I agree otherwise.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

Miami is going to try to turn every game into a rock fight but they just don't have the horses to win 4 of 7. Celtics in 5, maybe 6.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

My take: Butler is going to have 1-2 games where he just takes over and scores at will - the Cs have run into this problem in the last two series with Trae and Harden, and they didn't seem to be able to scheme very well to stop that. And then there is almost without question going to be one game where the Heat are flopping all over the place, get every call, and the game thread is fuming. So I see this going 6-7 and I'll go so far as to say I'd be borderline shocked if the Celtics (or the Heat) won in 5 (or 4).

This feels like the right approach.

Many of us have been incredibly fortunate to witness our teams make deep playoff runs. In my experience, these post-season series are rarely easy, they often reveal unexpected challenges (e.g. injuries, hard to counter adjustments etc) and very few if any have a smooth path.

More to the point, the 2022-23 Celtics are lots of things but a dominant pole -to-pole club they are not (really nobody in the NBA ever really is). Expecting light work in this series seems like a recipe for disappointment.

 

[lovegtm]

I wonder how much it will matter that this same Celtics team (but a bit worse) prepped so extensively for this same Miami team (but better).

Against Philly this year and Milwaukee/Miami last year, the teams hadn't had series against each other in their current iterations, and so there was a lot of discovery and problem solving.

Even for a coach as good as Spoelstra, it's tough to come up with something totally new after trying everything already last spring, and I am relatively high on Mazzulla's static problem-solving ability (as opposed to in-game).

 

[Reverend]

In baseball, many analyzers have said that "record in blowouts" is a better indicator of a teams ability than "record in close games."
Have there been similar studies in the NBA?

I think FootballOutsiders were the first to discover this effect and it was (obviously) for football. I forget if the method was to look at record in blowouts or to look at record against teams bases on retrospective assessed quality over the past few years (I think it was the latter), but ultimately their conclusion was that when good teams played each other, a game could be decided by a bounce here and there, but when good teams played inferior teams, they tended to take care of business and that was a greater indicator / predictor of succesa than record against good teams.

 

[tims4wins]

I think FootballOutsiders were the first to discover this effect and it was (obviously) for football. I forget if the method was to look at record in blowouts or to look at record against teams bases on retrospective assessed quality over the past few years (I think it was the latter), but ultimately their conclusion was that when good teams played each other, a game could be decided by a bounce here and there, but when good teams played inferior teams, they tended to take care of business and that was a greater indicator / predictor of succesa than record against good teams.

It's basically the genesis of pythag. The more you outscore your opponents on a cumulative level, the better you are.

 

[Van Everyman]

Then the Cs won a series that should probably have been shorter, but in which they had more health/availability issues than people remember. Smart was banged up, White missed a game with his child's birth, Rob was in and out and somewhat limited, and then Tatum hurt his shoulder.

Miami is going to try to turn every game into a rock fight but they just don't have the horses to win 4 of 7. Celtics in 5, maybe 6.

It can't be overstated how totally gassed last year's team was by the time the ECF even started. Giannis had just spent 7 games lowering his shoulder into half our lineup with zero repercussions. Grant had taken at least two shoulders to the jaw and probably was concussed. Smart had his ankle messed up and missed Game 1 of the ECF. Rob didn't even play the first two rounds and was on and off the whole time when he came back. And this was after they had played balls to the wall for 3+ months from January through May just to get in playoff position because of their dogshit start to the regular season. Lest we forget, Tatum played the most minutes of anyone in the entire league.

This year, they have had their consistency issues in the postseason, but are generally healthy and have managed their minutes better. They haven't ground themselves into dust just getting into this position. Rob is maybe not 100% Peak Rob (I still remember him blocking a corner 3PA from Tucker in that ECF series where he jumped from the key), but he may well be rounding into form -- plus, as I said, Bam couldn't do a goddamn thing when matched up with Rob last year.

Never say never, because of Spo & Jimmy Buckets and all, but the Celtics are in a better position for this series than they were last year.

 

[bosockboy]

I can see Miami running out of magic and being pretty stinky and this going 5 games for the Celtics OR I can see Miami sustaining the run and this going to 7 games. Not saying Miami is lucky, but that their style of play is really hard and it depends on players doing what they need to do and not checking out for a quarter. (In contrast to the Celtics, where we bank on guys checking out but they still win.)

Yes. Celtics ceiling is 4-5 games. Heat’s ceiling is win game 7 on the road. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen but we are winning 3 games minimum.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

It can't be overstated how totally gassed last year's team was by the time the ECF even started.

So gassed that they only won 2 of the first 3 games of The Finals by double digits over the Warrirors. So gassed that they shot 15-22 from the field in the 4Q of the road win at Golden State.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It can't be overstated how totally gassed last year's team was by the time the ECF even started. Giannis had just spent 7 games lowering his shoulder into half our lineup with zero repercussions. Grant had taken at least two shoulders to the jaw and probably was concussed. Smart had his ankle messed up and missed Game 1 of the ECF. Rob didn't even play the first two rounds and was on and off the whole time when he came back. And this was after they had played balls to the wall for 3+ months from January through May just to get in playoff position because of their dogshit start to the regular season. Lest we forget, Tatum played the most minutes of anyone in the entire league.

This year, they have had their consistency issues in the postseason, but are generally healthy and have managed their minutes better. They haven't ground themselves into dust just getting into this position. Rob is maybe not 100% Peak Rob (I still remember him blocking a corner 3PA from Tucker in that ECF series where he jumped from the key), but he may well be rounding into form -- plus, as I said, Bam couldn't do a goddamn thing when matched up with Rob last year.

Never say never, because of Spo & Jimmy Buckets and all, but the Celtics are in a better position for this series than they were last year.

Don't forget JT had the wrist fracture last year too.

 

[nighthob]

So gassed that they only won 2 of the first 3 games of The Finals by double digits over the Warrirors. So gassed that they shot 15-22 from the field in the 4Q of the road win at Golden State.

So gassed that the minute that Golden State went to a ten man rotation they couldn't keep up.

 

[lars10]

It can't be overstated how totally gassed last year's team was by the time the ECF even started. Giannis had just spent 7 games lowering his shoulder into half our lineup with zero repercussions. Grant had taken at least two shoulders to the jaw and probably was concussed. Smart had his ankle messed up and missed Game 1 of the ECF. Rob didn't even play the first two rounds and was on and off the whole time when he came back. And this was after they had played balls to the wall for 3+ months from January through May just to get in playoff position because of their dogshit start to the regular season. Lest we forget, Tatum played the most minutes of anyone in the entire league.

This year, they have had their consistency issues in the postseason, but are generally healthy and have managed their minutes better. They haven't ground themselves into dust just getting into this position. Rob is maybe not 100% Peak Rob (I still remember him blocking a corner 3PA from Tucker in that ECF series where he jumped from the key), but he may well be rounding into form -- plus, as I said, Bam couldn't do a goddamn thing when matched up with Rob last year.

Never say never, because of Spo & Jimmy Buckets and all, but the Celtics are in a better position for this series than they were last year.

It feels like the entire second half of the season was played out planning for being in the ECF and Finals. Every game it seemed like two or three players were either given a rest day or were out injured. Everyone was given as long as possible to come back from injury as well. Celts gave up the 1 seed to have everyone as rested as possible for the playoffs.

 

[lars10]

So gassed that the minute that Golden State went to a ten man rotation they couldn't keep up.

Hard to imagine anyone watching those last few games and not seeing how absolutely exhausted the whole team looked.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I can't get to the spot that says this series goes 7. I think the Celtics take this in 5. Miami already has a thin roster with a bunch of 10 day contract guys. I know Spoelstra uses some form of witchcraft to get the maximum output out of them, but here's the problem. Robinson and Love will need to log many minutes, and the Celtics will hunt them into extinction. They can't guard anybody.

Also, they needed a guy like Malcom Brogdon last year. Now they have him, and I feel like that will shave at least 2 games off of this series.

My initial thought is that the Celts in five, but this team never, ever, ever, ever does things the easy way so I expect another seven game slugfest.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

So gassed that the minute that Golden State went to a ten man rotation they couldn't keep up.

They played primarily the same 7-8 man rotations in the final 3 games as they did in the first 3 until the game was decided. I agree that they looked shellshocked and couldn't keep up with the speed of the Warriors and their ball movement but that is more of a personnel thing from playing 2BIGZ in that matchup while having to play Pritchard actual minutes then any perceived fatigue with 2 days off before every Finals game but one.

 

[lovegtm]

I have an idea: we can do two things at once!

1. Not re-litigate "were the Celtics gassed against the Warriors".

2. Acknowledge that the Bucks' series was a lot more physical than this Philly one was (even though I thought most of Philly's roster competed and elevated their games on defense.)

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Hard to imagine anyone watching those last few games and not seeing how absolutely exhausted the whole team looked.

They just got gassed after a double digit win and 2 days off? How does that even apply?

 

[tims4wins]

I have an idea: we can do two things at once!

1. Not re-litigate "were the Celtics gassed against the Warriors".

2. Acknowledge that the Bucks' series was a lot more physical than this Philly one was (even though I thought most of Philly's roster competed and elevated their games on defense.)

Agreed, and as mentioned upthread, the Celts had to play game 1 only 2 days after game 7 had ended, and they had to travel to get there

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Agreed, and as mentioned upthread, the Celts had to play game 1 only 2 days after game 7 had ended, and they had to travel to get there

Lol....and they won by double digits. Ok I'm done with this topic

 

[lovegtm]

It's honestly shocking how much less physical Embiid was than Giannis, even though I think Embiid is a more complete player when healthy.

 

[Light-Tower-Power]

To me it’s as simple as the Celtics are better than last year and the Heat without Oladipo and Herro are clearly worse. Should be Milwaukee but it isn’t. Door to the Finals is wide open.

 

[lovegtm]

Lol....and they won by double digits. Ok I'm done with this topic

He's talking about game 1 vs. Miami.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

He's talking about game 1 vs. Miami.

Ah gotcha. My bad

 

[JakeRae]

Here are the Boston turnovers in the Sixers series: 16, 8, 10, in the losses, 6, 12, 17, 7 In the wins.
In their two blowout wins, they turned it over only 6 and 7 times.

Boston turned it over 16, 23, and 17 In the three Miami playoff losses last season, and in the wins 9, 9, 15, and 13, with 5 coming in the fourth quarter of a game 7 Boston led the entire way.

If Boston takes care of the ball they will beat the Heat.

There’s no question that we still have turnover problems, but this year is very different from last year for a variety of reasons. The most significant one is Tatum. He’s had a stable regular season turnover percentage around 10-11% for his career, but last year in the playoffs he was over 15% and nearly 19% against Miami. This year he has gone in the other direction, and is under 9% in the playoffs.

Now, I don’t think the 9% is meaningful, but I see no reason to think Tatum is going to flip back to the turnover machine he was last postseason. That could easily have been an injury issue, but even if it was schematic, it wasn’t limited to Miami and neither Philly or Atlanta could replicate it, even marginally.

Now, Smart generally is turnover prone, but is meaningfully better (still bad) in the playoffs. Jaylen is the opposite, he’s fine in the regular season but his rate meaningfully goes up in the playoffs. Both of those match the eye test too (Jaylen struggles with his dribble more against heightened defensive pressure in the playoffs and Smart is somewhat less reckless but still makes more terrible passes than one would like.). And that difference largely balances out.

But unless Spo has some secret to getting Tatum to turn the ball over at a 20% clip, and I don’t think he does, I expect the Celtics to basically be who they are. They’ll make some careless plays and turn the ball over more than we like. There will likely be at least one game where randomness means that’s a really big problem. There will be other games where they take care of the ball and are impossible to defend. But on balance, if they can continue to trust and rely on Tatum, turnovers aren’t going to sink this Celtics team. And even if Spo does have some magic anti-Tatum scheme, we had enough of a talent edge to survive that last year and have an even bigger edge this year.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

There’s no question that we still have turnover problems, but this year is very different from last year for a variety of reasons. The most significant one is Tatum. He’s had a stable regular season turnover percentage around 10-11% for his career, but last year in the playoffs he was over 15% and nearly 19% against Miami. This year he has gone in the other direction, and is under 9% in the playoffs.

I attribute much if not all of this to Tatum having much more ballhandling/playmaking responsibilities last year when we were all screaming for backcourt help in the offseason. He's the recipient of the ball in scoring position more with year compared to last.

 

[tims4wins]

Lol....and they won by double digits. Ok I'm done with this topic

I’m talking about the Heat series last year. The Heat won game 1 by double digits. I have no opinion on whether the Celts were gassed in the finals. In fact I think I agree with you. Up 2-1, and a lead late in game 4. But in game 1 against the Heat last year, they were coming off a grueling 7 game series and had to travel for a game with only 1 game in between and then they played well for a half then just got run out of the building in the 3rd. And that loss, of course, contributed to the series going 7 games.

 

[j-man]

Mannnn. I have no idea why anyone thinks the Lakers are going to just beat the Nuggets so easily. Jokic has averaged 25/13/9 these playoffs. He's an absolute monster. I feel like those numbers basically underplay how good he's been. Murray, Porter, KCP... the Nuggets are better than the Lakers... but if Davis and LeBron are just on fire for 10 days they can win. But I don't get the resolute "Lakers are going to win", my dude.

we will see

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Mannnn. I have no idea why anyone thinks the Lakers are going to just beat the Nuggets so easily. Jokic has averaged 25/13/9 these playoffs. He's an absolute monster. I feel like those numbers basically underplay how good he's been. Murray, Porter, KCP... the Nuggets are better than the Lakers... but if Davis and LeBron are just on fire for 10 days they can win. But I don't get the resolute "Lakers are going to win", my dude.

I think you and I agreed on this a round or even two rounds ago. But the way people talk about the Nuggets is bizarre.

I kind of feel like if the Nuggets win the championship, everyone is still going to be ignoring them.

 

[The Social Chair]

It's honestly shocking how much less physical Embiid was than Giannis, even though I think Embiid is a more complete player when healthy.

Embiid doesn't generate 3/4 of his offense by running into people.

 

[TripleOT]

The Celtics’ lack of quality rotation depth was why they lost the Finals last season, along with a banged up Tatum and TL. It could be argued that if they dispatched EC opponents more efficiently they would have been less worn down for the Finals. Both seven game series before the Finals were brutal, and the Cs should have ended both earlier than seven games.

 

[bankshot1]

I think in addition to playing at less than 100%, It could be argued that holding a 5 point lead late in the 4Q of G4, of the ' 22 Finals, within minutes of taking a 3-1 series lead, they lacked the maturity to close. As evidenced by letting the two previous series going longer than they should have.

They lost their poise and the series in the last few minutes of G4 and let a wounded opponent escape.

That should have been the lesson learned.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

I think a huge thing in this series is that Jimmy is not a guy who is going to roast them from three.

When the Celtics are lax defensively it tends to be slow closeouts and just yielding the 3pt line too easily. But Jimmy is going for FTs and midrange and layups. If they don’t overcommit and stay tight to the other guys, they should be fine defensively.

I’d put Tatum on Jimmy and force him to deal with that length.

 

[Saints Rest]

Is there any position where the Heat hold a decided advantage over the Celtics?

• Butler v Brown: tie
• Love v Tatum: Big Adv BOS
• Bam v Horford: Sm Adv MIA
• Strus v Smart: Adv BOS
• Vincent v White: Adv BOS

or maybe the Celts stick with two bigs:

• Butler v Tatum: Sm Adv BOS
• Love v Horford: Adv BOS
• Bam v RWill: Tie
• Strus v Brown: Big Adv BOS
• Vincent v Smart: Adv BOS

 

[Bunt4aTriple]

Is there any position where the Heat hold a decided advantage over the Celtics?

• Butler v Brown: tie
• Love v Tatum: Big Adv BOS
• Bam v Horford: Sm Adv MIA
• Strus v Smart: Adv BOS
• Vincent v White: Adv BOS

or maybe the Celts stick with two bigs:

• Butler v Tatum: Sm Adv BOS
• Love v Horford: Adv BOS
• Bam v RWill: Tie
• Strus v Brown: Big Adv BOS
• Vincent v Smart: Adv BOS

I think you're under selling Bam, but Jays>Butler+Bam. Celtics in 6 is my guess.

 

[JakeRae]

Is there any position where the Heat hold a decided advantage over the Celtics?

• Butler v Brown: tie
• Love v Tatum: Big Adv BOS
• Bam v Horford: Sm Adv MIA
• Strus v Smart: Adv BOS
• Vincent v White: Adv BOS

or maybe the Celts stick with two bigs:

• Butler v Tatum: Sm Adv BOS
• Love v Horford: Adv BOS
• Bam v RWill: Tie
• Strus v Brown: Big Adv BOS
• Vincent v Smart: Adv BOS

Butler is better than Jaylen Brown. But if you just do this comparison by best player, next best, etc. the only spot that is debatable is the second best player comparison of Bam v. Jaylen. Tatum is clearly better than Butler (how much so is debatable) and once you get past the top 2 there is a big gulf 3-7, and meaningful gaps the rest of the way down.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Butler is better than Jaylen Brown. But if you just do this comparison by best player, next best, etc. the only spot that is debatable is the second best player comparison of Bam v. Jaylen. Tatum is clearly better than Butler (how much so is debatable) and once you get past the top 2 there is a big gulf 3-7, and meaningful gaps the rest of the way down.

Playing this game is dangerous bc on any given night Strus or Vincent can win those match ups based on shooting volatility....as could Lowry and Robinson. Bam will likely win whichever matchup he's up against as well. On nights Miami's shooting is cold they are always susceptible to getting blown out but they can easily get that game right back with hot 3-pt shooting.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Is there any position where the Heat hold a decided advantage over the Celtics?

• Butler v Brown: tie
• Love v Tatum: Big Adv BOS
• Bam v Horford: Sm Adv MIA
• Strus v Smart: Adv BOS
• Vincent v White: Adv BOS

or maybe the Celts stick with two bigs:

• Butler v Tatum: Sm Adv BOS
• Love v Horford: Adv BOS
• Bam v RWill: Tie
• Strus v Brown: Big Adv BOS
• Vincent v Smart: Adv BOS

in lineup 1, Butler is better than Jaylen.
In lineup 2, Bam is better than TL.

Overall though, yes the Celtics have the best player in the series and a significant backcourt advantage. However... they play defense hard more consistently, and it's the NBA, so if you play good D, shooting variance can win you any game on a given night.

 

[Saints Rest]

Butler is better than Jaylen Brown. But if you just do this comparison by best player, next best, etc. the only spot that is debatable is the second best player comparison of Bam v. Jaylen. Tatum is clearly better than Butler (how much so is debatable) and once you get past the top 2 there is a big gulf 3-7, and meaningful gaps the rest of the way down.

Fair point probably that Butler is a bit better than JB, but the gulf isn't that wide. Both made 2nd team all-NBA this year.

How about ordering the overall quality of all the key rotation guys for both teams:

1. JT
2. Butler
3. JB

I don't think that order is up for much debate. But how about the rest:

1. Bam/Marcus. Similar players playing much different positions. Each can alter the game from the defensive end; each can put up solid offensive outputs (last year in the ECF, Bam averaged 15.0; Marcus 16.6 PPG)
2. Al, White, RWill, Brogdon. Order these guys any way you like, but I don't think there is a Heat player who is as good as any of these.
3. Love, Vincent, Strus, Lowry
4. Hauser, GWill, Pritchard.

 

[JakeRae]

Playing this game is dangerous bc on any given night Strus or Vincent can win those match ups based on shooting volatility....as could Lowry and Robinson. Bam will likely win whichever matchup he's up against as well. On nights Miami's shooting is cold they are always susceptible to getting blown out but they can easily get that game right back with hot 3-pt shooting.

Of course. On any given night the Heat can beat the Celtics if their shots are falling or if ours aren’t. I wasn’t trying to say otherwise and I don’t think that alters that Horford, Timelord, Smart, White, and Brogdon are all meaningfully better than all of Love, Strus, Vincent, Lowry, and whoever you pick as Miami’s 7th man right now.

I think there’s a decent argument Bam is the third best player in this series. The Heat also get the most out of their talent and then some (because of Spo) so a talent comparison will make the series look less competitive than it likely will be.

 

[Auger34]

I think the top 4 players are: Tatum, Butler, Brown and Bam (in that order. Think Butler and Brown are close then a gap to Bam)

After that is where the Celtics have the advantage. I think it’s a pretty easy argument to say that they have the next 5 best players (Smart, Brogdon, White, TL, Horford).

Celtics in 6

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'd like to see the rotation expanded to 8 or 9 at least in the early part of this series.

Miami isn't Philly, so what ultimately worked against Philly shouldn't be the norm for any team.

Hauser and Grant are worth at least a look.

 

[chilidawg]

I'd like to see the rotation expanded to 8 or 9 at least in the early part of this series.

Miami isn't Philly, so what ultimately worked against Philly shouldn't be the norm for any team.

Hauser and Grant are worth at least a look.

Alternatively there's the keep your foot on the gas and don't let them get any momentum approach.

I think there's a good argument to going back to DW in the starting lineup because then Love has to guard Tatum. With one big there's no where to hide him. I'm not sure there's a great matchup for Grant in this series.

 

[Koufax]

I think the top 4 players are: Tatum, Butler, Brown and Bam (in that order. Think Butler and Brown are close then a gap to Bam)

After that is where the Celtics have the advantage. I think it’s a pretty easy argument to say that they have the next 5 best players (Smart, Brogdon, White, TL, Horford).

Celtics in 6

No love for Lowry? You wouldn't take him over White?

 

[Auger34]

No love for Lowry? You wouldn't take him over White?

Nope. I think Lowry is the next best player but I definitely wouldn’t take him over any of the Celtics top 7

 

[Auger34]

Alternatively there's the keep your foot on the gas and don't let them get any momentum approach.

I think there's a good argument to going back to DW in the starting lineup because then Love has to guard Tatum. With one big there's no where to hide him. I'm not sure there's a great matchup for Grant in this series.

Scalabrine talked about this on a podcast last year but Grant normally plays Bam really well. Scal explained that they both grew up near each other and ended up playing against each other a bunch and that Grant has always held up well, to the point that he might have some real estate inside Bam’s head.

 

[chilidawg]

Scalabrine talked about this on a podcast last year but Grant normally plays Bam really well. Scal explained that they both grew up near each other and ended up playing against each other a bunch and that Grant has always held up well, to the point that he might have some real estate inside Bam’s head.

Just read Jared Weiss's preview and he makes your point as well:

If Boston starts double big, Horford should be on Adebayo with Robert Williams helping off Love. Then the question is whether Boston will keep going to small lineups for the second unit as it has done all year, or bring in Grant Williams to stay big.
Williams also has played a big role against Adebayo in the past, who he has been battling since they were in high school back in Charlotte. It’s a different matchup than with Embiid, as Adebayo is more on the move and using his athleticism and speed than his sheer power and height. Mazzulla benched Williams in large part due to his fouling on Embiid and turnovers attacking closeouts too deep into the paint, but his intimate knowledge of Adebayo’s game could bring him back into the action.

He also thinks Grant was pretty good against Butler last year:

Butler is patient, powerful and laser-focused. So does Mazzulla put Smart on him, his equal on the defensive end? Is White back in the starting lineup to take on Butler while Smart roams the weak side? Will Brown get the star assignment again after taking on Harden last series?
Then what about Grant Williams? One of the biggest adjustments Udoka and Mazzulla made last year was to have Williams bang with Butler and keep him from getting to his spots in the midrange. It worked well for some games before Smart eventually took over the assignment in Game 7.

An interesting take on RW:

It’s all designed to get movement behind Williams, who is going to be a target for Miami because he has been super jumpy all postseason. He has been eager to leave his feet on both ends of the court, biting hard on pump fakes and even jumping just to make rotations across the floor when it’s unnecessary. It was a big part of why Mazzulla went away from him in the fourth quarter of Game 6 after he had such a great start to the game returning to the lineup.

https://theathletic.com/4522604/2023/05/16/celtics-heat-preview-jimmy-butler/