Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

TripleOT

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I think the Heat will show up for Game 5 and it will be a two or three possession game, with Boston holding onto their lead in a tense fourth quarter. Boston by 5.
 

Cellar-Door

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Curious how MIA handles it... Assume more Lowry, but also likely means more Robinson and wonder if they have to leave Love on the floor more.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Cue up the Lowry throwback 30-piece!

In all seriousness, this really screws with their offensive rotations, as has previously been noted but also defensively. Losing size at the 1 going to Lowry.
 

Justthetippett

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Vincent has been really good, so it's a safe assumption that this hurts them. But I didn't expect him to be good this either, so I wouldn't put it past the Heat to make an adjustment that accounts for his absence effectively. I just hope the Celts come out hot this game and don't let the Heat get activated.
 

Cellar-Door

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Cue up the Lowry throwback 30-piece!

In all seriousness, this really screws with their offensive rotations, as has previously been noted but also defensively. Losing size at the 1 going to Lowry.
Not sure the size difference matters, 2 inches taller but Lowry is heavier and stronger. Tatum was just bullying Vincent last game, rising right over him. I guess it might help Brogdon or White?
I think the bigger issue is speed. Lowry's feet have slowed down, and he's also not playing 40 so that means more Robinson and either going deep bench or reversing the trend of phasing out Love. Might help the drive and kick game because more need to collapse.
 

Red Averages

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From the Celtics side, Brogdon played only 17 minutes in Game 4. White played 27. Seems like an easy move to get The Assassin up to 34 and Brogdon down to 10ish. I'd guess the Celtics have a fairly tight 7 man rotation (+ brogdon for 10) at this point, barring foul trouble.

On the Heat side: They are going to be awfully thin if Lowery gets in foul trouble, as he typically does. He might need to be less aggresive, which will curtail his effectiveness. Love has been a large detractor since the Celtics moved away from two bigs, so it's hard to envision him getting more minutes. Zeller spells Bam, so we shouldn't expect a change there. Caleb Martin played 35 minutes in Game 4, so we can't expect him to play more off the bench...

Duncan Robinson.... he was -12 in only 11 minutes in game 4. In games 1-2 he was net 0. I won't look at the game 3 box.... Hard to see him getting 20+ minutes.
Strus is already in the mid 30s, is he going to be higher? His 3 pt shooting has already started to slip (3/5 game 1, 2/5 game 2, 2/8 game 3, 1/5 game 4).
Lowry has been near 28 minutes. Can he go to 35+?

This is a huge void for Miami. I'm not sure how they can play with their intensity levels and 3 point shooting with an older core forced to play 35+ minutes on the road, after a flight when they got in so late.

Also did they fly out Vincent only to see him ruled out? That's a lot of travel for an ankle injury.
 

Red Averages

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When Lowry sits, who runs the point? Butler? Martin? Robinson? Does Boston pressure full-court on whoever does?
I'd hope if Lowry or Butler are bringing it up they'd see pressure. We've seen the impact of them getting tired, and both will be expected to play more minutes. This becomes even more important if there is a game 6, another flight, and a hobbled or no Vincent again. Keep the pressure on. Force turnovers. Drain them.
 

Saints Rest

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I'd hope if Lowry or Butler are bringing it up they'd see pressure. We've seen the impact of them getting tired, and both will be expected to play more minutes. This becomes even more important if there is a game 6, another flight, and a hobbled or no Vincent again. Keep the pressure on. Force turnovers. Drain them.
I'm with you. Another opportunity here to compare coaching acumen. Spo will have to try something new due to the injury; how will Joe respond. How will each counter the other's counters?
 

jablo1312

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When Lowry sits, who runs the point? Butler? Martin? Robinson? Does Boston pressure full-court on whoever does?
Good idea in theory but I've felt like MIA has killed the Celtics in transition all series. Pressuring someone like Jimmy in the backcourt could bleed a few seconds off the shot clock but I'd be worried about MIA finding a few ways to break that "press" and turn it into a quick advantage, would prefer to see them get back and get the half-court defense set. It's not like Jimmy's a turnover machine anyways.
 

Saints Rest

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Good idea in theory but I've felt like MIA has killed the Celtics in transition all series. Pressuring someone like Jimmy in the backcourt could bleed a few seconds off the shot clock but I'd be worried about MIA finding a few ways to break that "press" and turn it into a quick advantage, would prefer to see them get back and get the half-court defense set. It's not like Jimmy's a turnover machine anyways.
I feel like one thing that has been notable about the Celt's D this series is how often they get the Heat into trouble with the shot clock, forcing either a rushed shot or a violation. Pressuring a guy who is unused to bringing the ball up might drain another 2-4 seconds off.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Fucking Haywood Highsmith.

Dude has had 3 games this year in which he's scored 15+ points.

He had 18 when he went 7/10 and 4/4 from deep against Chicago.

AND THEN

He had 16 points (on 6/9 and 4/6 from deep), 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in 25 minutes against, you guessed it, the Celtics (C's won by 13, when Tatum scored 49 and Brown had 26).

He had 15 points (on 5/7 and 4/4 from deep), 10 rebounds, 1 assists and 1 steal in 30 minutes, finished as a +12 in a 3 point win against, you guessed it, the fucking Celtics. (Tatum had 31, Brown didn't play)

In both of those games, he played significantly more minutes than Gabe Vincent.


I fucking already hate Haywood fucking Highsmith.
 

Red Averages

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Fucking Haywood Highsmith.

Dude has had 3 games this year in which he's scored 15+ points.

He had 18 when he went 7/10 and 4/4 from deep against Chicago.

AND THEN

He had 16 points (on 6/9 and 4/6 from deep), 8 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 blocks in 25 minutes against, you guessed it, the Celtics (C's won by 13, when Tatum scored 49 and Brown had 26).

He had 15 points (on 5/7 and 4/4 from deep), 10 rebounds, 1 assists and 1 steal in 30 minutes, finished as a +12 in a 3 point win against, you guessed it, the fucking Celtics. (Tatum had 31, Brown didn't play)

In both of those games, he played significantly more minutes than Gabe Vincent.


I fucking already hate Haywood fucking Highsmith.
Wait until you hear

he was undrafted
 

jablo1312

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One potential impact of Highsmith playing is that he's hopefully a better place to stash Jaylen on defense. JB hasn't been up to the task of chasing Vincent/Robinson/Strus around the 2 man game w/ Bam, and has fallen asleep a bunch of times leading to wide open 3's. At least has the size to hang w/ Highsmith.
 

Ed Hillel

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FINALLY I can cross off "Thank God Gabe Vincent is out" on my Sports Bingo card.
 

NomarsFool

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Please, please, please Boston don't play down to Miami and think this one is in the bag because undrafted All-Star Gabe Vincent is out.
 

Ale Xander

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Cue up the Lowry throwback 30-piece!

In all seriousness, this really screws with their offensive rotations, as has previously been noted but also defensively. Losing size at the 1 going to Lowry.
What they lose vertically, they gain horizontally
 

Deathofthebambino

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One potential impact of Highsmith playing is that he's hopefully a better place to stash Jaylen on defense. JB hasn't been up to the task of chasing Vincent/Robinson/Strus around the 2 man game w/ Bam, and has fallen asleep a bunch of times leading to wide open 3's. At least has the size to hang w/ Highsmith.
I'd have to see video of this, because I don't remember much of it at all. I watch Jaylen almost religiously on both ends of the floor, and I'm not seeing this.

I do remember Jaylen absolutely stoning Jimmy Butler possession after possession during the C's run in the 2nd half though.

Are you confusing Jaylen with Brogdon/White/Smart or something?

And I don't know why people keep talking about C's players getting lost on screens. This has been a "switch everything" defense for almost every game for years now. Most of the time, they aren't supposed to be fighting over or under screens, they're supposed to be handing off the ball handler to the defender that came with the screener (usually Bam). The thing most of us around here have been calling for is for guys defending Butler to go under the screen, and dare him to shoot a deep ball, or in the case of their other guards/shooters, the big being switched needs to close space rather than sag off.

I would personally love it if we picked up our defense closer to half court, and force Bam to set screens way above the arc. Our defenders are athletic enough to close that gap, even without going around the screen. Smart does this on occasion, but they rarely do it for a long period of time.
 

Auger34

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One potential impact of Highsmith playing is that he's hopefully a better place to stash Jaylen on defense. JB hasn't been up to the task of chasing Vincent/Robinson/Strus around the 2 man game w/ Bam, and has fallen asleep a bunch of times leading to wide open 3's. At least has the size to hang w/ Highsmith.
I think Jaylen should be guarding Butler. He did a great job last game, it keeps him engaged on defense and it can mitigate any off-ball issues. Although, like @Deathofthebambino, I have to confess I haven’t noticed that much with Jaylen this series. The only person I’ve consistently seen being burned off ball this series is Brogdon. (Jared Weiss has written that Tatum has struggled off ball in this series but I haven’t noticed that either)
 

Cellar-Door

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I think Jaylen should be guarding Butler. He did a great job last game, it keeps him engaged on defense and it can mitigate any off-ball issues. Although, like @Deathofthebambino, I have to confess I haven’t noticed that much with Jaylen this series. The only person I’ve consistently seen being burned off ball this series is Brogdon. (Jared Weiss has written that Tatum has struggled off ball in this series but I haven’t noticed that either)
I think both of them have lost guys off ball, particularly games 2 and 3, got backcut a few times, got stuck between hedging and crowding.
I do think Jaylen on Jimmy and switching less is a good strategy. When he locks in Jaylen is still good on-ball, a lot of his on-ball issues this year were focus based.
 

jablo1312

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I'd have to see video of this, because I don't remember much of it at all. I watch Jaylen almost religiously on both ends of the floor, and I'm not seeing this.

I do remember Jaylen absolutely stoning Jimmy Butler possession after possession during the C's run in the 2nd half though.

Are you confusing Jaylen with Brogdon/White/Smart or something?

And I don't know why people keep talking about C's players getting lost on screens. This has been a "switch everything" defense for almost every game for years now. Most of the time, they aren't supposed to be fighting over or under screens, they're supposed to be handing off the ball handler to the defender that came with the screener (usually Bam). The thing most of us around here have been calling for is for guys defending Butler to go under the screen, and dare him to shoot a deep ball, or in the case of their other guards/shooters, the big being switched needs to close space rather than sag off.

I would personally love it if we picked up our defense closer to half court, and force Bam to set screens way above the arc. Our defenders are athletic enough to close that gap, even without going around the screen. Smart does this on occasion, but they rarely do it for a long period of time.
I don't think they're primarily switching the Bam-Strus/Vincent/Robinson PnR's or hand-off games. Here's a couple plays I picked out from JB form G4 (apologies, I have no idea how to clip videos and embed here):

- View: https://youtu.be/w8kpZDCrjXg?t=95


- View: https://youtu.be/w8kpZDCrjXg?t=207
(this one isn't horribly defended, nice pass from Vincent)

-The 3 point foul from G4 was a result of him overplaying the handoff and giving Vincent a walkway into an open shot (which immediately followed him doing the same thing where Vincent drew another foul on him)

-Apologies for the horrible link https://ok.ru/video/5801534491166?fromTime=88 falls asleep on the Bam screen for an open robinson 3 which he missed

-Can say this is scheme instead of defensive effort/ability but Vincent gets directly into the lane here: https://ok.ru/video/5801534491166?fromTime=1340

-Strus sprints into a open look at 3, Jaylen hit by Bam screen https://ok.ru/video/5801534491166?fromTime=1421

I don't think this is all some horrible failing, and Brogdon hasn't been much better at this, but its something the Heat are occasionally targeting when he's on the floor

Agreed that Jaylen was better 1v1 on Jimmy. He doesn't get bullied size-wise like White and has the length to contest the fadeways and mid-range pull-ups. From what I can see Jimmy hasn't been running a lot of PnR's- he's picking matchups and mainly attacking in iso's. Might see more PnR tonight with no Vincent from him, and agreed going under is probably the move there.
 

TripleOT

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Considering that JB lived and worked out daily with Butler before, in the summer before his draft, and considering how many times he’s faced Butler, he (along with JT) is best suited to try to contain Butler.
 

InstaFace

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I absolutely loved the one part where hes like "OK you turned the ball over its fine its basketball..." Like, he's gotta be in on the bit right?
Doubt it. He's pointing out mental mistakes, which are coachable / controllable, rather than physical ones which are matters of execution and opponent ability (like turnovers). When I'm coaching, I focus on the former (positioning, reading a play, footwork, what to focus on), and never really comment on physical errors like "run faster" or "don't throw that away" which is (A) obvious and (B) either something they can't help, or not something that better decision-making can help with.

"you're not wrong, Walter. You're just an asshole."
 

slamminsammya

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Doubt it. He's pointing out mental mistakes, which are coachable / controllable, rather than physical ones which are matters of execution and opponent ability (like turnovers). When I'm coaching, I focus on the former (positioning, reading a play, footwork, what to focus on), and never really comment on physical errors like "run faster" or "don't throw that away" which is (A) obvious and (B) either something they can't help, or not something that better decision-making can help with.

"you're not wrong, Walter. You're just an asshole."
Are you in on the bit too? The guy doesn't know how basketball works.
 

Montana Fan

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I would personally love it if we picked up our defense closer to half court, and force Bam to set screens way above the arc. Our defenders are athletic enough to close that gap, even without going around the screen. Smart does this on occasion, but they rarely do it for a long period of time.
From your lips to Red’s ears. Am sure you saw Marcus waving to JB to pick up at half court in the first half. JB made a nice play, was running back and Marcus waved him up. The Celt’s defense has been a thing of beauty tonight.
 

DeadlySplitter

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I'm concerned how bleh we look against Miami's zone, outshot it tonight in the 1st and basically held serve the rest of the game, but there will likely be more crunch time (late & close) in this series and I'm not sure I saw anything that gives me confidence it won' be a game 2 repeat.

Also, Brogdon might be done, and Pritchard can't play actual minutes either, so we're only 7 deep right now. Maybe they finally try Hauser. Vincent is supposedly fine for game 6, but that is something to watch again as it felt like a backbreaker for Miami.

In the end though.... we have a series, and we can bitch about how they should be up 3-2 instead of down after the fact. Let's see what they can do.
 

Mooch

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I'm concerned how bleh we look against Miami's zone, outshot it tonight in the 1st and basically held serve the rest of the game, but there will likely be more crunch time (late & close) in this series and I'm not sure I saw anything that gives me confidence it won' be a game 2 repeat.

Also, Brogdon might be done, and Pritchard can't play actual minutes either, so we're only 7 deep right now. Maybe they finally try Hauser. Vincent is supposedly fine for game 6, but that is something to watch again as it felt like a backbreaker for Miami.

In the end though.... we have a series, and we can bitch about how they should be up 3-2 instead of down after the fact. Let's see what they can do.
The problem with the Heat zone is that they’re prone to offensive rebounds. Celtics dominated in that department against it and I don’t see that changing.
 

slamminsammya

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I'm concerned how bleh we look against Miami's zone, outshot it tonight in the 1st and basically held serve the rest of the game, but there will likely be more crunch time (late & close) in this series and I'm not sure I saw anything that gives me confidence it won' be a game 2 repeat.

Also, Brogdon might be done, and Pritchard can't play actual minutes either, so we're only 7 deep right now. Maybe they finally try Hauser. Vincent is supposedly fine for game 6, but that is something to watch again as it felt like a backbreaker for Miami.

In the end though.... we have a series, and we can bitch about how they should be up 3-2 instead of down after the fact. Let's see what they can do.
More White minutes feels like a big bonus to Brogdon being done. I vote for some Hauser minutes.
 

TripleOT

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When does the talk start about Mazzulla outcoaching Spo? The Heat coach didn’t have his team ready to play tonight, and the Celtics were dialed in and laser focused. Mazzulla did a solid job protecting that big first quarter lead.

Boston wisely amped up the defensive pressure as soon as the PG deficient Heat advanced the ball into the front court. They had at least one help defender almost every time Butler when into his bag, and except for a short stint, flummoxed Bam too.

Boston’s offensive organization and ball movement was exquisite.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Either he’s worn to shit or Butler completely punted tonight to conserve everything he has for Game 6. Really praying it’s the former. Celtics defense was great but he has absolutely nothing out there and I’m nervous he’s playing the long game and is going to play out of his mind on Saturday.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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The problem with the Heat zone is that they’re prone to offensive rebounds. Celtics dominated in that department against it and I don’t see that changing.
I guess that's a nice bonus but for the most part we're taking low-percentage shots, where I feel we're really prone to a bad shooting night in a situation you can't lose any more.

They can pull this off, we all knew they have the talent capable of it. But need to play a great offensive game on Saturday, because I think the Heat go back to scoring 110+ for at least a game. (If not, then we can really say CLAMPS are back)
 

BaseballJones

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I didn’t get to watch the whole game but I don’t recall a single set against the zone where they ran Tatum to the foul line tonight.

I don’t get it.