One of the things that, perhaps irrationally, annoys me about Jaylen's game (amid many positives, to be clear), is his propensity to dribble into traffic despite not being a hugely ball-secure dribbler, and get it stripped. There are lots of kinds of turnovers in basketball, and some are less concerning than others. Overcook an outlet pass for a fast break? Turnover. Get a pass deflected? Turnover. Step out of bounds? Infuriating, but that's a kind of turnover that happens, and not that often. But getting it stripped / stolen while dribbling seems like a tactical choice, one determined both by skill and decision-making. It reflects something that he could improve if he focused enough on it, and avoiding it is one of those "stats that don't get you paid, but contribute hugely to winning games".
So we have a bit of an experiment running right now with Jaylen out, and while the sample sizes may not be huge I'd like to at least look at it intentionally.
Firstly, what's the baseline for Jaylen? His numbers, of course, partially reflect how ambitious he's being - trying to make plays and be one of the team's primary scorers. So we do have to view the numbers in context of how much he's able to contribute to the team's offense.
By TOV% (blue), he has stayed roughly steady in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions of the team, with %s in the 12s his first 2 years, down to 10.1% in 2019 but then rising back up to 11.8% by this year. But then again, his usage% (red) has gone way, too, consuming ~30% of the team's offensive possessions when he's on the floor. His points-per-100-possessions has gone in lockstep with that red series, too. But with that rising usage, his personal turnovers per 100 team possessions when he's on the floor (yellow - number is right axis) has continued to march up, from ~2.5 his first 3 years, to then 3.1, 3.9, 4.0 and 4.2 the last 4 years. It's the same if you look at it on a per-minutes basis, too.
(for context, this season Jayson Tatum is at 3.7 TOV/100pos, 10.2% TOV%, on 33% USG%, while assisting a whole lot more - so about ~13% less turning-it-over than Jaylen, all told - less, but not dramatically so)
Bk-Ref divides turnovers into two categories: bad-pass, and lost-ball. He had slightly more lost-ball turnovers than bad-pass turnovers the last 5 years, averaging 54% lost-ball across 4 of the 5, with 2021-22 being down to 47% but this year right back up to 55%. That doesn't sound that bad. Most guards have their TOs heavily favor Bad-Pass, as you'd expect, while players who go to the rim more often tend to have it be closer to even. Looking at some of the league leaders in free throws taken, among wings, Giannis is at 45% lost-ball, DeRozan 50%, Butler 27% (!), Durant 34%, Bogdanovic 46%. So Jaylen at 54% is pretty high for lost-ball. I think we can say the stats back up the idea that he loses the ball an unusually high (but not extreme) amount for someone of his playing style.
Now, what's our alternative to having Jaylen out there? He's been inactive in 7 of the last 15 games (starting 1/12 when he missed 3 in a row), and in those games we've averaged 14 turnovers a game when he plays, 12 when he sits; we average 13.5 for the season overall. In offensive Turnover %, in those games, the Celtics have had a TOV% of 12.7% when he plays and 11.2% when he sits (we're at 12.1% for the season overall). So, yeah, saving 2 turnovers a game seems pretty meaningful, even if it's still a small sample size. Who's taking his 35 MPG when he sits? It's hard to be super specific because of all the other factors, but just looking at these last 15 games, here are some average minutes numbers for Jaylen Plays -> Jaylen Sits.
Brogdon 31:50 -> 24:32 (-7'18")
Hauser 8:12 -> 19:46 (+11'34") (Hauser even started the last 3 games that Jaylen sat)
Pritchard 13:30 -> 20:59 (+6'29")
White 30:09 -> 31:13 (+1'04")
Grant: 26:19 -> 28:53 (+2'34")
...so mostly Hauser and Pritchard. And so we've been mostly replacing Jaylen's 4.2 TOV/100 and 11.8% TOV% with these season numbers:
Hauser 1.1, 6.5%
Pritchard 2.8, 13.5%
Pritchard's turnovers are only 29% LostBall, and Hauser's 47%. And as we all know from watching them, they're clearly not driving into traffic with the frequency that Jaylen is. So our play style changes a bit, and we end up taking high-percentage layups and dunks less as a result... but we are also more ball-secure. And our best estimate is that we're turning it over 2 times less per game, meaning 2 more possessions that end in shots, while going from Jaylen's .585 TS% to Hauser's .628 and Prichard's .520. Or if you want to take more things into account, Jaylen's +1.2 BPM and +3.5 DARKO DPM, vs Hauser's +0.4 BPM and -1.2 DPM, and Pritchard's -4.1 BPM and -1.4 DPM (all numbers are season-long).
Conclusions:
- Jaylen does indeed lose the ball a bit more than he should, and he hasn't gotten better at it
- The excess turnovers that we've observed are part of his play style which opens up better outside shots, so there's a tradeoff
- When Jaylen is out, he's replaced by more outside shooters, and Hauser is more efficient but Pritchard is less efficient, and neither of them offer anything close to the full value Jaylen brings
- So to the extent it's a problem, it might be mitigated by a bit of specific coaching, but it's not so big a deal that it compromises Jaylen's value overall
- Thus people such as myself who are frustrated by it, need to STFU and recognize that it's a tiny aspect of Jaylen's game and we should still be glad we have him
So we have a bit of an experiment running right now with Jaylen out, and while the sample sizes may not be huge I'd like to at least look at it intentionally.
Firstly, what's the baseline for Jaylen? His numbers, of course, partially reflect how ambitious he's being - trying to make plays and be one of the team's primary scorers. So we do have to view the numbers in context of how much he's able to contribute to the team's offense.
By TOV% (blue), he has stayed roughly steady in terms of turnovers per 100 possessions of the team, with %s in the 12s his first 2 years, down to 10.1% in 2019 but then rising back up to 11.8% by this year. But then again, his usage% (red) has gone way, too, consuming ~30% of the team's offensive possessions when he's on the floor. His points-per-100-possessions has gone in lockstep with that red series, too. But with that rising usage, his personal turnovers per 100 team possessions when he's on the floor (yellow - number is right axis) has continued to march up, from ~2.5 his first 3 years, to then 3.1, 3.9, 4.0 and 4.2 the last 4 years. It's the same if you look at it on a per-minutes basis, too.
(for context, this season Jayson Tatum is at 3.7 TOV/100pos, 10.2% TOV%, on 33% USG%, while assisting a whole lot more - so about ~13% less turning-it-over than Jaylen, all told - less, but not dramatically so)
Bk-Ref divides turnovers into two categories: bad-pass, and lost-ball. He had slightly more lost-ball turnovers than bad-pass turnovers the last 5 years, averaging 54% lost-ball across 4 of the 5, with 2021-22 being down to 47% but this year right back up to 55%. That doesn't sound that bad. Most guards have their TOs heavily favor Bad-Pass, as you'd expect, while players who go to the rim more often tend to have it be closer to even. Looking at some of the league leaders in free throws taken, among wings, Giannis is at 45% lost-ball, DeRozan 50%, Butler 27% (!), Durant 34%, Bogdanovic 46%. So Jaylen at 54% is pretty high for lost-ball. I think we can say the stats back up the idea that he loses the ball an unusually high (but not extreme) amount for someone of his playing style.
Now, what's our alternative to having Jaylen out there? He's been inactive in 7 of the last 15 games (starting 1/12 when he missed 3 in a row), and in those games we've averaged 14 turnovers a game when he plays, 12 when he sits; we average 13.5 for the season overall. In offensive Turnover %, in those games, the Celtics have had a TOV% of 12.7% when he plays and 11.2% when he sits (we're at 12.1% for the season overall). So, yeah, saving 2 turnovers a game seems pretty meaningful, even if it's still a small sample size. Who's taking his 35 MPG when he sits? It's hard to be super specific because of all the other factors, but just looking at these last 15 games, here are some average minutes numbers for Jaylen Plays -> Jaylen Sits.
Brogdon 31:50 -> 24:32 (-7'18")
Hauser 8:12 -> 19:46 (+11'34") (Hauser even started the last 3 games that Jaylen sat)
Pritchard 13:30 -> 20:59 (+6'29")
White 30:09 -> 31:13 (+1'04")
Grant: 26:19 -> 28:53 (+2'34")
...so mostly Hauser and Pritchard. And so we've been mostly replacing Jaylen's 4.2 TOV/100 and 11.8% TOV% with these season numbers:
Hauser 1.1, 6.5%
Pritchard 2.8, 13.5%
Pritchard's turnovers are only 29% LostBall, and Hauser's 47%. And as we all know from watching them, they're clearly not driving into traffic with the frequency that Jaylen is. So our play style changes a bit, and we end up taking high-percentage layups and dunks less as a result... but we are also more ball-secure. And our best estimate is that we're turning it over 2 times less per game, meaning 2 more possessions that end in shots, while going from Jaylen's .585 TS% to Hauser's .628 and Prichard's .520. Or if you want to take more things into account, Jaylen's +1.2 BPM and +3.5 DARKO DPM, vs Hauser's +0.4 BPM and -1.2 DPM, and Pritchard's -4.1 BPM and -1.4 DPM (all numbers are season-long).
Conclusions:
- Jaylen does indeed lose the ball a bit more than he should, and he hasn't gotten better at it
- The excess turnovers that we've observed are part of his play style which opens up better outside shots, so there's a tradeoff
- When Jaylen is out, he's replaced by more outside shooters, and Hauser is more efficient but Pritchard is less efficient, and neither of them offer anything close to the full value Jaylen brings
- So to the extent it's a problem, it might be mitigated by a bit of specific coaching, but it's not so big a deal that it compromises Jaylen's value overall
- Thus people such as myself who are frustrated by it, need to STFU and recognize that it's a tiny aspect of Jaylen's game and we should still be glad we have him
