If Stevens ever went ballistic on the refs it would come off faker than Bobby Valentine palling around with players as if he were an Alex Cora-esque player's manager. The refs might openly laugh in his face.
Celtics in 18-19
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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His own players might even laugh. Which, I suppose might be the only good reason to do it -- if he thought they were tight.
I dont doubt that some college refs might have occasionally thought that pissing off Bobby Knight just wasn't worth it. But I really doubt that pro refs -- whatever their shortcomings -- fall into that.
Looking for data on this would be assinine, since Brad getting ~4 extra technical fouls "working the refs" during the course of a season would equate to ~3points over 82 games. Completely irrelevant.
To believe that working the refs ISN'T effective you'd have to believe that a human official being made aware of acts that a coach is telling him is occurring would not raise this officials awareness to the situation. That doesn't pass the smell test.
The absence of data due to an inability of something not being measurable does not mean that it doesn't exist.
Technical fouls and working the refs really have nothing to do with one another though. The veteran players who have built relationships with officials over the years have a much greater ability to influence officals calls by THEM doing the work. It's the polar opposite of why DeMarcus and Draymond get "overly T'd up."
One could argue that the massive amounts of sugar and saturated fat could be a contributor so...…..
This makes sense. But the assumption that he *isn't* working the refs because he doesn't act like Bobby Knight trying to get sent to a San Juan prison does not.
I did not say it doesn't work. Nobody is claiming that absence of data means something doesn't exist. However there are people on this site who claim definitively that "working the refs" does work and they don't have data either.
To me, it makes sense that a coach who is strategic about talking to the officials will help their cause. But yelling, gesticulating and getting all red faced for the cameras while getting T'd up seems like it would have diminishing returns as well as costing the team points.
What I do know is that Stevens does talk to the refs. At this point, expecting or hoping for him to freak out on them is not realistic.
Throwing chairs and getting T's has never been the bar that the "working the refs" people have set. I'm not sure how this got lost in the translation. I began chirping about this his first year as he stood arms folded appearing shellshocked as opposing coaches were destroying him in this area of the game which isn't completely unexpected as he didn't have any relationship with them as a first-year guy. He's gotten much much better which again was to be expected once you grow those relationships.
Lol but who is claiming this? Surely there are times when getting a T or tossed from a game can be effective in waking your team up but that isn't the basis for "working the refs" at all.
I am not calling out individual posters. But complaints about Stevens timidity with officials are fairly common around these parts.
I think the problem is that quietly talking to the refs without making hand gestures (never mind throwing chairs and jumping up and down) is easily missed when watching on TV. And there is no evidence that the quiet methods are any less effective than constant screaming. So people think Brad "doesn't work the refs enough".
My point was if Brad started "working the refs" more, it would potentially lead to 4 extra techs. The toll or cost of that would be ~3points over an entire season. Not a high cost if you believe Brad's work could lead to a few extra calls.
You'll find that coaches who scream at the officials end up getting less calls because of it. No one wants to hear that crap.
Completely agreed. The histrionics that some coaches engage in are often for audiences other than the officials or the players imho. Its just not clear if that approach is any more or less effective than a more measured approach.
Yes but not being timid and acting like a crazed lunatic don't have to go hand in hand. The Jeff Van Gundy days of the league are well behind us.....well except for an occasional Spoelstra or Doc explosion.
Officials get chirped at for 48 minutes on virtually every possession by the players and the coaches on what to look for. Are you implying that an officials who gets something pointed out to them is consciously and purposely neglecting their job responsibilities? That is a mighty claim right there if so.
I guess I need to know what you mean by "working the refs"? He seems to be talking to them pretty regularly from what we can see on TV.
Not at all. A good official will tell a coach or a player that they missed a call or they'll watch for whatever they're asking them to watch. I'm saying that in my observation coaches that constantly are outwardly berating officials over every little call don't get the better end of the calls. Coaches can do what they want as it's their team and whatever they do is their business. Every coach has a different style in dealing with the officials. Some don't say a word, some give friendly barbs but go off at the proper times, and some are constantly yelling every chance they get. I'm just saying that I don't think treating an official like crap is going to get coaches more calls.
It certainly does have an impact, but like anything else has its limits, and requires skill. If you think Brad, and his staff do not work the refs, I am at a loss. He doesn't scream, but he reacts, talks to them at breaks, etc. Guys who have been to few games tell me he is good cop kinda guy, saying things like, 'My guys saw the replay, he did travel, sorry" but also "you know on the replay Embid really charged there, but you will see it later."
Even at the high school level my assistant and I have a "book" on the refs, who you can talk to who you can't. Even at that low level coaches anticipate that an opposing coach will focus on saying, etc.
I agree with all of this especially the skill aspect of it. There absolutely is a skill level just as there is with having sales skills.
To clarify my position Brad WAS awful in this area when he first entered the league. I don’t really have a major issue now as he’s improved dramatically in this area and he does seem to have much better relationships today.
Yeah, I complained about this earlier in the season, decided I was wrong, and stopped complaining. I think the "Brad doesn't work the refs" crowd isn't super large now on here.
I don't know what sort of data we can use to figure out whether or not "working the refs" has an impact on games, except maybe free throws.
Going back 5 years, including this season, these are the teams in the top 5 of free throw attempts:
2014-15
Sacramento
Minnesota
Houston
Chicago
LA Clippers
2015-16
Houston
Minnesota
Toronto
LA Clippers
Detroit/Sacramento
2016-17
Houston
Phoenix
LA Clippers
Oklahoma City
Phoenix
2017-18
Charlotte
LA Clippers
Houston
Oklahoma City
Minnesota
2018-19
LA Clippers
Philly
Dallas
Oklahoma City
Utah/Houston
There are only two teams that appear in the top 5 every single season, and it's the Clippers and the Rockets. I think folks around here saw enough of Doc Rivers to know whether or not he "works the refs" and can draw their own conclusions. My impression of Mike D'Antoni is he never stops working the officials during a game, much more so than Brad's occasional quiet conversation with a ref after a bad call. Billy Donovan took over in OKC in 2015, and they've been in the top 3 for each of the past 3 seasons. During the Thibs years in Minnesota, they were always in the top 8 at worst. It would take a lot more time than I have at the moment to do a deeper dive into the numbers, especially with the coaching turnover in the NBA, but I think it's clear that there are at least a few veteran coaches who's teams have consistently been at or near the top of the list at getting to the free throw line. I'm sure folks can attribute it to other things to (like Harden in Houston), as opposed to the coach, but maybe they go hand in hand too. Maybe Harden doesn't get as many calls if he doesn't have a coach like D'Antoni working the refs like he does.
For those wondering, here is where the C's have fallen during the Brad Stevens years:
27th
27th
12th
15th
20th
Currently 29th.
Edit: Oh yeah, those two seasons the Kings appear on the list. Those were the two years that George Karl coached the team.
Going back 5 years, including this season, these are the teams in the top 5 of free throw attempts:
2014-15
Sacramento
Minnesota
Houston
Chicago
LA Clippers
2015-16
Houston
Minnesota
Toronto
LA Clippers
Detroit/Sacramento
2016-17
Houston
Phoenix
LA Clippers
Oklahoma City
Phoenix
2017-18
Charlotte
LA Clippers
Houston
Oklahoma City
Minnesota
2018-19
LA Clippers
Philly
Dallas
Oklahoma City
Utah/Houston
There are only two teams that appear in the top 5 every single season, and it's the Clippers and the Rockets. I think folks around here saw enough of Doc Rivers to know whether or not he "works the refs" and can draw their own conclusions. My impression of Mike D'Antoni is he never stops working the officials during a game, much more so than Brad's occasional quiet conversation with a ref after a bad call. Billy Donovan took over in OKC in 2015, and they've been in the top 3 for each of the past 3 seasons. During the Thibs years in Minnesota, they were always in the top 8 at worst. It would take a lot more time than I have at the moment to do a deeper dive into the numbers, especially with the coaching turnover in the NBA, but I think it's clear that there are at least a few veteran coaches who's teams have consistently been at or near the top of the list at getting to the free throw line. I'm sure folks can attribute it to other things to (like Harden in Houston), as opposed to the coach, but maybe they go hand in hand too. Maybe Harden doesn't get as many calls if he doesn't have a coach like D'Antoni working the refs like he does.
For those wondering, here is where the C's have fallen during the Brad Stevens years:
27th
27th
12th
15th
20th
Currently 29th.
Edit: Oh yeah, those two seasons the Kings appear on the list. Those were the two years that George Karl coached the team.
The players on the floor and style of play could explain why certain teams keep showing up.
Yeah, that's what this says "I'm sure folks can attribute it to other things to (like Harden in Houston), as opposed to the coach, but maybe they go hand in hand too."
I agree. I think you could easily swap in generic coach X for Doc or D'antoni and so long as they ran the same offensive sets with the same players you would hardly see a difference in FT rate
How about the other way around? Could you swap in generic player X and run the same sets, and get the same free throw rates, because that's exactly what the Clippers are doing:
This is the roster of players who logged minutes for the Clippers this year, and they are currently 5th in free throw attempts.
Wilson Chandler
21 Patrick Beverley
23 Lou Williams
40 Ivica Zubac
17 Garrett Temple
8 Danilo Gallinari
0 Sindarius Thornwell
4 JaMychal Green
15 Johnathan Motley
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
20 Landry Shamet
10 Jerome Robinson
31 Angel Delgado
12 Luc Mbah a Moute
5 Montrezl Harrell
9 Tyrone Wallace
There isn't a single player that has played a minute for the Clippers this year that was on the team just two years ago. They've had 100% turnover since 2016-17. This is their 16/17 roster that finished 3rd in free throw attempts.
Alan Anderson
30 Brandon Bass
11 Jamal Crawford
2 Raymond Felton
32 Blake Griffin
10 Brice Johnson
33 Wesley Johnson
6 DeAndre Jordan
12 Luc Mbah a Moute
3 Chris Paul
34 Paul Pierce
4 J.J. Redick
25 Austin Rivers
5 Marreese Speights
0 Diamond Stone
So yeah, maybe it's the sets they're running, or maybe it's the players they draft, or maybe, just maybe, it's the one thing that's remained constant, the coach? Who knows.
How did the team Doc coached before the Clippers do in terms of free throw attempts? Wouldn't that be relevant?
Ranked between 9th and 11th both in the KG years and the two previous ones when roster tanking by our front office.
Top 12 in 3 of 4 years with Orlando prior to this.
Figured I'd check, since I asked.....
FTA rank from 1st year with C's to last (they were 8th in OB's last half season)
4/11/11/9/11/10/22/27/23
Did he just stop giving a shit?
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He must have forgotten how to work the refs those last 3 seasons. Then suddenly remembered in LA.
Or maybe he tweaks his system depending on the players and skills available to him.
I think Steve Clifford and the Charlotte Hornets are kind of an interesting example. Admittedly, I haven't watched enough of their games to form an opinion on whether Clifford falls more in the Stevens-mold or the Rivers-mold when it comes to working refs. But, Clifford took over in 2013, and since that time, Charlotte finished the following in free throw attempts:
9th
14th
11th
10th
1st (he was fired after the 17/18 season)
They were in the top 15 every season when he was there, including leading the league last year with 27.0 free throws attempted per game. I looked into last year a bit more, and on 12/6/17, Clifford left the team to deal with a health issue. He missed 21 games. During the period of time he was out, the team that led the NBA in free throw attempts, only averaged 18.9 per game in his absence, which would have ranked them 29th over the course of the season.
9th
14th
11th
10th
1st (he was fired after the 17/18 season)
They were in the top 15 every season when he was there, including leading the league last year with 27.0 free throws attempted per game. I looked into last year a bit more, and on 12/6/17, Clifford left the team to deal with a health issue. He missed 21 games. During the period of time he was out, the team that led the NBA in free throw attempts, only averaged 18.9 per game in his absence, which would have ranked them 29th over the course of the season.
While I dont think there's anything to this, maybe there is. But first, can you even describe the "Stevens-mold" and the "Rivers-mold" of "working the refs."
If you can't tell the difference between the way Stevens deals with the refs and the way Rivers does, you don't watch enough games, so frankly, I don't care if you think there's something to it or not. Like I said, make your own conclusions. I'm just pointing out some numbers.
Free throws are way more about the players than the coaches. Go back and look at Houston. They go from the bottom half to the top once they acquire Harden. 6 more free throws a game after Harden joins them with McHale coaching. The reason the LAC have been up there for 5 years is because of the players on the team. Griffin and Jordan continue to shoot free throws at a high rate as they have moved on. Williams and Gallinari were high end free throw shooters for other teams before they got to the Clippers.
I doubt that it's something you can easily observe by watching demeanor on TV.
However, I'd be VERY surprised if there's not real variance in ref-working ability, the psychological equivalent of framing strikes in baseball. It's hard to tease it out, but I bet some front offices are trying.
I'm glad someone mentioned Blake Griffin, because he leads to another interesting guy. FTR, Griffin only played 33 games for the Clippers last year, and Jordan only averaged 4.1fta's per game, and they still finished 2nd in the NBA.
But let's look at Griffin. Over the course of his career, he's averaged 7.0fta's per game. Last year, in 33 games with the Clippers, he averaged 6.6, which is pretty in line. However, when he got to Detroit, he only averaged 4.4fta per game in the 25 games he played for them. He's now gone back up to 7.8fta's per game this year.
As most of you recall, the Pistons hired Dwayne Casey to coach them this year after he was fired by Toronto. Currently, the Pistons are ranked 12th in free throw attempts this season. Last year, without Casey, they were 24th. The year before, they were 29th.
Last year, in Toronto, the Raptors were 13th, and these are the Raptors ranks going back to 2011/12 when Casey took over:
13th (his last season)
6th
3rd
6th
7th
14th
19th (his first season)
Again, maybe it's the players. Maybe not. Lot of turnover amongst the Raptors during that time period, and Casey's Pistons are now getting to the line a lot more than they were last year (including Griffin).
But let's look at Griffin. Over the course of his career, he's averaged 7.0fta's per game. Last year, in 33 games with the Clippers, he averaged 6.6, which is pretty in line. However, when he got to Detroit, he only averaged 4.4fta per game in the 25 games he played for them. He's now gone back up to 7.8fta's per game this year.
As most of you recall, the Pistons hired Dwayne Casey to coach them this year after he was fired by Toronto. Currently, the Pistons are ranked 12th in free throw attempts this season. Last year, without Casey, they were 24th. The year before, they were 29th.
Last year, in Toronto, the Raptors were 13th, and these are the Raptors ranks going back to 2011/12 when Casey took over:
13th (his last season)
6th
3rd
6th
7th
14th
19th (his first season)
Again, maybe it's the players. Maybe not. Lot of turnover amongst the Raptors during that time period, and Casey's Pistons are now getting to the line a lot more than they were last year (including Griffin).
George Karl's Denver teams dominated the NBA in free throw attempts during the 'Melo, etc. years. Kind of an amazing run.
Denver from 2004/05-2012/13
5th
7th
3rd
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
3rd
Denver from 2004/05-2012/13
5th
7th
3rd
1st
1st
1st
1st
1st
3rd
I'm not suggesting this would work but if you want to look at a coach's impact on calls the first place you'd start is players that have changed teams/coaches. Of course the foul rate also depends on a whole host of other factors. I don't think this can be measured.
Again one question is whether, say, Doc's more animated style with the refs yields more favorable results than Stevens apparent understated approach.
Even though some people believe that the "yellers" are more effective, I can easily see it yielding diminishing returns. On the other hand people tend to avoid conflict so you can make a case that screaming works.
As many have noted, its hard to measure. Perhaps someone like Scott Foster's bookie knows but that person almost certainly has more impactful inside information to protect.
Anyone who has played or coached basketball at any level knows you draw fouls by taking the ball strong to the basket. I’m not aware of a metric that measures that. FWIW, the C’s are 25th in points in the paint this year and were 29th last year — which isn’t a perfect measure, because the C’s are penalized for not playing much post-up ball (even by contemporary NBA standards), but I don’t think any of us would dispute that the C’s go strong to the hole less often than your average NBA team. That’s what’s driving the C’s modest FTA stats, not anything Brad is doing or failing to do with the refs.
I think you’d also want to control for shot type. Coaches also influence shot selection. Relying on jump shots v. dribble penetration v. post ups, etc. will certainly impact how many free throws a team takes but will not tell you anything about the ability of a coach to influence officiating. Basically, you’d need to figure out a way to measure average free throws for certain types of possessions and then use that to measure marginal differences among players and teams.
This would also control for pace, which I don’t think is being taken into account in the FT statistics people have been citing in this thread.
Another way to look at this:
— 9 teams have attempted at least 1 FT/gm more than the league average — the Clippers, Sixers, Mavericks, Thunder, Rockets, Jazz, Nets, Timberwolves and Pelicans.
— 10 teams have attempted at least 1 FT/gm less than the league average — the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers, Cavs, Nuggets, Suns, Spurs, Warriors and Grizzlies.
A few of the league’s worst teams are conspicuously on that second list, but I’d be hard-pressed to say the second list is not as well coached as the first — you’ve got three of the consensus top 4 coaches in the league coming into this season (Kerr, Pop, Brad — D’Antoni being the fourth), plus this year’s likely coach of the year (Malone) and another guy who is generally regarded as having gotten results outstripping his team’s talent level (McMillan).
Edit: Also, 4 of the league’s top 5 teams in assists per possession are in that bottom 10 for FT/gm — the Warriors, Nuggets, Pacers and Celtics. Probably not a coincidence.
— 9 teams have attempted at least 1 FT/gm more than the league average — the Clippers, Sixers, Mavericks, Thunder, Rockets, Jazz, Nets, Timberwolves and Pelicans.
— 10 teams have attempted at least 1 FT/gm less than the league average — the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers, Cavs, Nuggets, Suns, Spurs, Warriors and Grizzlies.
A few of the league’s worst teams are conspicuously on that second list, but I’d be hard-pressed to say the second list is not as well coached as the first — you’ve got three of the consensus top 4 coaches in the league coming into this season (Kerr, Pop, Brad — D’Antoni being the fourth), plus this year’s likely coach of the year (Malone) and another guy who is generally regarded as having gotten results outstripping his team’s talent level (McMillan).
Edit: Also, 4 of the league’s top 5 teams in assists per possession are in that bottom 10 for FT/gm — the Warriors, Nuggets, Pacers and Celtics. Probably not a coincidence.
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